Talk Elections

Clinton: 48
Trump: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 1

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

Poor Trump. No wonder he's given up.

In the Senate race Rubio leads Murphy 48-43

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Rubio is running 14 points past Donald Trump. Floridians are clearly going to be doing a lot of ticket-splitting.

So basically it will be easier for Clinton to flip UT and TX than it will for Trump to flip FL and OH(2 states that HRC wont need)

Gosh, I really should have saved the gif of the Titanic sinking and people jumping overboard.

trump needs to focus on holding alabama and mississippi at this rate

Ugh. Why are there 13% of Democrats supporting Rubio? Hopefully the 8% of Democrats undecided get in line quick after the primary to carry Murphy over the top.

this will tighten up after the primary - if the election is lost for trump come october it may depress republican turnout

Hahaha wow. The hits just keep coming.

Oh Lord in Heaven please make this true

This poll has an R+5 sample with Clinton +9!!! That is nuts

Nice. Must be the same Illegals participating in the poll two or three times, right Donald?

I'm not sure we can trust the Senate numbers until after the primaries.

Killer poll against Trump.  When was the last time that a Democratic Presidential nominee won Florida by 9%? LBJ barely won Florida in 1964 as one of his weaker states. I'm guessing FDR. Florida more D than Michigan has happened (1976, Carter winning Florida but losing Michigan).

Florida is more likely up 5% for Clinton... but I am finding it increasingly hard to see Florida
as a possible Obama-to-Trump swing. Time is running out for Trump to win a state that he absolutely must win.  


Florida close to Safe D in the Presidential election? (Really I consider anything higher than an 8% lead 'safe' at this stage. That would put Hillary Clinton with 296 safe electoral votes in view of what several pollsters say of Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, none of which has ever gone for a 10% for any Democratic nominee for President since at least LBJ in 1964.

With Trump up only 6% in Texas, of all places, I smell a landslide. I also see a wave election, one in which Republicans could regret gerrymandering Congressional district to leave lots of Slight R districts and few Slight D districts.

Democrats might as well now recognize that Mitt Romney was a fairly-good Presidential nominee who lost only because Barack Obama was too good a President to have a chance of losing the election. Romney would not win against Obama in a hypothetical election involving an unconstitutional Third Term...  but I think that he would defeat Hillary Clinton.

So much for the "Democratic hack" label upon me.  

Donald Trump is just simply awful. He reminds me in a way of the comedian Don Rickles, except that Don Rickles does not insult any but the high-and-mighty in Hollywood. Donald Trump insults people like schoolteachers, accountants, and nurses.  

Grayson needs to go away already.

1948. Truman won by a 15% margin, and was below 50%.

Do elections have a mercy rule?

You can get Clinton +9 and Rubio +5 if Cubans loathe Trump and split tickets

This isn't good news for Trump--Wasn't Florida something like R+2 at this point in 2012?

This poll got reweighed quite a bit by Monmouth to get to the R+5 sample. They removed Democrats and Republicans from the sample to add more Indys. It was originally R+4 before the reweigh.

I don't know why they adjusted, they had a 52-48 F/M sample, went to 53/47. They only added 1% more minorities vs white. Odd it would be Indys/Rs adjusted by whatever they did though.

Well, according to RCP, Romney was about 1 point ahead of Obama in Florida at this point. But a week and a half from today in 2012, the RNC began. And then the DNC began a week later, on the first week of September, and Obama led most polls of Florida throughout September. Then Obama had a disastrous first debate performance in early October and Romney led most of the polls in Florida for the remainder of the election season.

In the end, Florida was R+3 compared to the nation as a whole.

I'm sure this poll is driving our Mr Seriously bonkers ...
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"Hello darkness my old friend....."

A+ Pollster in a difficult state to poll.

How well does Monmouth do historically in polling Florida?

What Romney counties will Hillary win? I'm thinking Sarasota, Seminole, Duval, Volusia (barely but only a small flip needed) and Hendry. Polk could be close.

Stunning. All that's left now is a Michigan poll.

Wow, these are the LV numbers too!

We're one +5 poll away from RCP putting Florida into lean Clinton. That will finish off Trump.

Uh...I'm pretty sure that even if literally every single Cuban in the state voted for Clinton and Rubio that still wouldn't be big enough to cause that gap.

Anyway, beautiful poll!

True, there are some educated whites(especially women) likely also splitting tickets.

This. It'll be the Murphy campaign and the Clinton campaign's jobs to get those women not to split their tickets.

Wow, this is stunning, though I think the senate numbers will tighten after the primary. If the Trumpster loses FL by more than five points, it will be the biggest defeat in decades. And Hillary close to 50% in a four-way race is remarkable. FL, an absolute must-win for the fake billionaire, is almost likely D now.

Heads up, Monmouth is coming out with an INDIANA poll later today! Numbers include President, Senate, and Gov.

:D

Great! I'm predicting Trump +6, Bayh +6, Gregg +4 (but with high undecideds).

Agreed. That's my bet, too.

They also said the numbers are "interesting" in the tweet they sent out.

It would make me laugh if the faker is behind or tied in IN. Really.

It could just as easily be a weak lead for Bayh...