Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Fargobison on August 17, 2016, 10:35:51 am



Title: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Fargobison on August 17, 2016, 10:35:51 am
Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Brittain33 on August 17, 2016, 10:36:38 am
Sponsor is a pro-union org.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 17, 2016, 10:39:22 am
Looks like they only asked a few questions though... and the Demos are rather R leaning.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on August 17, 2016, 10:39:25 am
MO is fool's gold for Democrats.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: heatcharger on August 17, 2016, 10:41:11 am
Nice topline obviously, but why wouldn't they ask gubernatorial and Senate races? If Trump is only +3 that could be bad news for Blunt.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: badgate on August 17, 2016, 10:41:39 am
If it's between MO and TX, I say Texas.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: dspNY on August 17, 2016, 10:46:23 am
Fits almost perfectly with the 538 Nowcast so this is probably the state of the race in MO


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on August 17, 2016, 10:47:25 am
Things must be going well for Koster, if this is the case. It's telling that Hillary is winning Florida by more than Trump is winning Missouri, lol.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: john cage bubblegum on August 17, 2016, 10:49:01 am
Man, I wish they would have polled the Senate race (and Governor too).  If it's competitive, a Clinton investment in the state would be worthwhile, even if there are juicier targets like Georgia.

Trump +3 sounds about right, and they even got a decently Repub friendly sample.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Nhoj on August 17, 2016, 10:58:20 am
Shes only winning women by 2 in this and there are more undecided women. But that probably still leaves it at about trump 2.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Desroko on August 17, 2016, 10:59:06 am
MO is fool's gold for Democrats.

Almost certainly. The real question is whether Trump can be baited into spending on KC and STL. Neither market is cheap.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Castro on August 17, 2016, 11:02:50 am
MO is fool's gold for Democrats.

Probably, though given a large enough national margin who knows what could happen. Regardless Clinton should only pay attention here to help out the Senate and Governor races.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Seriously? on August 17, 2016, 11:03:45 am
Always be leery of these PPP polls that are done for an advocacy group. It's not the same poll that PPP would normally do.  There would be other questions that PPP would have ran if it was their own poll.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: LLR on August 17, 2016, 11:04:52 am
If nothing else, it bears very well for Koster.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: darthpi on August 17, 2016, 11:47:41 am
Another poll that seems roughly consistent with a 7 or 8 point lead nationally for Hillary. I'll take it.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: President Johnson on August 17, 2016, 01:00:07 pm
Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: ProudModerate2 on August 17, 2016, 01:26:54 pm
Possibly attainable by Clinton .... especially if trump's new team makes his campaign more of a mockery than it was yesterday.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: House Candidate Spark on August 17, 2016, 01:27:56 pm
Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.

This isn't looking good.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 17, 2016, 02:26:57 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: LLR on August 17, 2016, 02:30:12 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on August 17, 2016, 02:31:37 pm
PPP has too good of a reputation to skew their polls for their clients.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 17, 2016, 02:34:53 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 17, 2016, 02:42:54 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no. 


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: darthpi on August 17, 2016, 02:50:47 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.

It's worth considering that possibility, but the fact that it is consistent with the last two polls from Missouri makes me think that there is a decent chance that it is at least close to correct.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 17, 2016, 03:33:37 pm
Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no.  
Of course PPP or any other pollsters does not skew the polls, but there is always a "but"...

The real problem with such polls that it is [usually] up to client to publish the poll or not. And of course, the client is much more likely to let publish those polls that look good for him than those that don't. That's why those polls are more often outliers than "regular" polls.

So it depends on pollsters policy.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 17, 2016, 03:42:28 pm
And it's difficult to get clients as a pollster if you can't show examples of your work. Obviously PPP has its array of "regular" polls, which is why its internals are less bad than other internals. But most internal pollsters do little or no "regular" polling, so their primary method of getting examples to show future clients is skewing the polls for their current cilents.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: NOVA Green on August 17, 2016, 04:46:45 pm
Another poll that seems roughly consistent with a 7 or 8 point lead nationally for Hillary. I'll take it.

The numbers sound about right, although again it looks like there are a significant chunk of voters <45 that are undecided, so if Hillary's current lead holds, this could end up being a squeaker on election day circa 2008.


Title: Re: MO- PPP: Trump +3
Post by: Seriously? on August 18, 2016, 03:35:00 am
PPP has too good of a reputation to skew their polls for their clients.
The record shows a house effect for whomever is paying for the poll. It's a slight one (a few points), but it's a house effect nonetheless. This happened with the Senate races PPP was doing for an advocacy group prior to the 2014 midterms. PPP followed with their own polls that were on average a few points more favorable to the Republicans.

Keep in mind that the client in these instances will likely control what gets released.

With that said, this one is a little better than some of the obvious partisan polls PPP put out last week that were RV instead of LV. PPP usually just puts out LV polls, but the SC poll for the Democrats was RV for obvious reasons. The Missouri poll went back to likely voters.