Talk Elections

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

These polls of likely voters were conducted from August 9-16.

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

Wow.

Looks about right. IA is definitely winnable for Trump, but CO and VA aren't.

Fantastic!

Damn! That's stellar coming from Quinnipiac.

"Clinton Has Big Leads In Colorado, Virginia, Tied In Iowa, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds"

lol what

CO and VA are gone, and while IA is close, it should still go for Hillary if she can stay ahead.

Clinton will probably win CO & VA, due to the highly educated vote. Trump is still viable in Iowa.

Wow. Another poll showing Johnson has half the support Trump has in CO.

And I guess VA really is gone for Trump.

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

A little music to reinforce the mood

It's Over (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ht8JDbWUM1E)

Around 40% view Barack Obama 'very favourably' in each of those states.

These numbers actually look right and that's amazing coming from Quinnipiac

Good numbers for Johnson and Stein.

Hopefully their numbers grow in the next months, I'd like to see both Hillary and Trump being dragged down below 40% in most swing states.

It seems like LVs have really put Quinnipiac in line with other pollsters.

I'm sure Donnie doubling down on being Breitbart Trump will turn these numbers around...

College Whites
IA  HRC +10
CO HRC +15
VA  HRC +18

White Women
IA HRC +15
CO HRC +9
VA HRC +5

No detectable signs of Hillary's support dipping. Third-party numbers are higher than I would have expected, but overall a very positive result.

Wow, the race dynamics seems to stablize. Heavily in Hillary's favor. It's almost Game Over for Donny.

Colorado and Utah are probably going to have the highest 3rd party totals. I can't wait at the very least we will get to plug in results on election atlas that have at least one third party taking 5% in a state.

Trump's numbers in Colorado have been abysmal since the DNC. He's struggling to reach 1/3 of the vote. Wow.

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Yeah. I remember some polls of late 2014 and 2015 were Hillary was trailing almost all Republicans (Trump was polled that time) by double digits. Colorado is probably the "swing state" which fits worst for Donny. Even worse than Virginia.

We can only hope.

Why is this happening in Iowa of all places? Most of Iowa's younger voters are educated/have college degrees. Is it still residual bad feelings from the primary/caucus?

Stuff I noticed/liked from this Q poll:

- The age breakdowns for Iowa are inverse of almost every other poll, with younger voters significantly favoring Trump and older voters significantly favoring Clinton.  Perhaps it's just a subsample oddity that balanced out.

- Clinton getting 16% of Republican women in VA is beautiful!  11% of Repub men is pretty impressive too.  Virginia is hopeless for Trump.

- I love looking at the Trump #s among young voters on the 4-way ballot in states like CO.  18% among 18-34 year olds, one point ahead of Jill Stein.

- Their CO sample seems pretty white, but it doesn't matter because Clinton has a 7 point lead among white voters, which is just ridic.  25 point lead with college-educated CO whites.  Fantastic.

Anyway, the sum effect of these polls makes Trump's chances of winning the election about the same as Steph Curry missing a free throw on 538's Nowcast and polls only

Trump will be in VA on Saturday.

Never mind Iowa, VA+CO+PA+MI+NH locks up the election for Hillary, and those all look rock solid at this point.

Look at those Johnson numbers. WOW!

I wonder how this will apply in the future. Possibly the beginning (or acceleration) of a shift away from Democrats, notably at the presidential level? Trump's numbers for 18-29 are not huge but it's a reversal from the past 12 years for sure.

I'm just surprised it is young Iowans going for Trump. Him, of all people. Sheesh.

Very nice.
Hillary needs to spend more time in IA.
Convince the younger generation here, that trump is a fraud.

Or send Bernard there (maybe together with Kaine). He could really help in this particular state.

Wow...et tu, Quinnipiac?

At least Seriously? will always have the LA Times poll. lol

Probably due to being within the statistical margin of error.

Another terrible round of polling for Donald Trump.

I've been surprised that Iowa is suddenly looking like an R+5 state (by margin not PVI), after being 1-2 points more Dem than the country pretty consistently since '92.  Looks like the younger voters could be making the difference. 

The last Monmouth IA poll found the same phenomenon with older voters supporting Clinton and younger voters Trump.  FWIW, the last CBS/YouGov IA poll found the traditional age splits with younger voters supporting Clinton.

It would make since for Iowa's younger generation to going more republican, I don't think it's purely a Trump phenomenon. Iowa did a sharp trend left due to the farm crisis in the eighties, as these voters die off the Iowa electorate will match its demographics more. Keep in mind that college whites in states with similar culture/ demographics were strongly republican in 2012. (Kansas, Nebraksa, Indiana etc)

Maybe young Iowa voters who went to town halls and school gymnasiums to scream at older Clinton supporters pushed them over the edge.

Everyone needs to calm down on the idea that IA youth are "shifting GOP"

This is one poll folks. Show me that this happens consistently and I'll believe you, until then, this is a subsample issue.

Democrats were also winning the Millennial vote since 2004. Support was in the mid-50s, save for 2008 (60%+), but generally I regard sustained youth support in a state over decade(s) as meaning a possible shift in the state's partisan future, so this could be the end of that. If Trump of all people can win over young voters there, then I don't see how Democrats will do better against a more conventional, non-controversial Republican in the future. It's possible they find something particularly appealing about Trump but not generic Republican presidential candidates, but I doubt that it is the case here.

On the other hand, Bush held a 4% lead over Gore in 2000 in Iowa when the dust settled, so I suppose we will need a couple more presidential elections to definitively see what direction Iowa is going in (imo)


I thought someone else said this was the 2nd poll they've seen to show similar movements. You're right that we should wait before drawing conclusions, and I would even go further (as stated above) and say that we will really need to see more elections in general before latching onto any sort of narrative here.

Marist had a tie among voters under 45, Clinton +5 with those over 45. Suffolk and YouGov did not show this.

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

Yeah, like they were supposed to finish a week after the DNC when Clinton's bounce was gone. Better say Abracadabra.

These numbers from CO are rather remarkable:

()

Colorado's about to become a no man's land for the Republicans.

I like how Marist essentially has the Rust Belt 3 (Iowa, Ohio, & Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt 4 (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia).

Additionally, several important points to note about Iowa, is that it is a state that has net outmigration of college educated voters to elsewhere in the region and country for economic opportunities and seeking more active lifestyles of larger metro areas. The economic profile of the state also doesn't particularly lend itself to an influx of middle-age college "professional class" type workers (Tech sector, software engineers, etc...), so many of the young people that remain are high-school grads, vocational school, and community college grads with deep local home-state roots, that will more closely mirror the demographic, social, and political profile of their respective communities.

Further, Iowa is one of the most dovish/isolationist states in the union on "elective" overseas adventures that is deeply rooted in the collective DNA from WWI, WWII, and more recently Vietnam and Iraq, and this is a state where Trump likely seems like a different kind of Republican than we have seen over the past 3 decades.

Combine that with a more economically protectionist attitude, not only in the agricultural sector (Ethanol?) but also in the manufacturing plants of Eastern Iowa (Caterpillar) as well as the meat processing, bio-sciences, and agricultural sciences, this state is actually a better fit for Trump's unique Republican brand than might immediately meet the eye.

Still, this will likely be a close race regardless of Clinton holding her current 7-8 point lead or dropping down to more like a 2012 Obama lead, in a state that is not particularly dynamic in terms of overall population changes.

This may be the first time I've ever heard Iowa described as Rust Belt. :P

agreed. I would be surprised if both of those candidates retained even a third of what they're polling at now.

This fits with what we have seen from two of the other recent VA polls showing Hillary with anywhere from a +10-+25 lead in the Tidewaters region.

I have always been extremely skeptical of this narrative that Trump is extremely popular among *active duty service members and military households*. This flies in the face of the changing demographics of the US Military over the past 20 years, dramatic increase for Democratic support since '08 with voters <35, as well as county and precinct level results from military base communities.

Where Trump does appear to be performing well is with military veterans, that heavily skew 55+ and Whiter and more Southern than the national average.... (And yes, I know there are a bunch of retired vets living in the Tidewater. ;) )

This may be the first time I've seen Iowa being described as "Rust Belt." :P

lol Trump can't even pull close in a Quinnipiac Colorado poll. Sad!

As a college student at Iowa State, I can attest that there is basically no one young there who is all that enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton. Basically every D who isn't a professor caucused for Sanders, even people who don't think of Clinton all that negatively. Rubio had a plurality among R's, with significant pockets of support for Trump, Cruz, and Paul.

We used to prefer the term "Heartlands" back when I lived in the industrial MidWest. :)

I agree, but if it didn't happen, would that feel a bit awkward for you? It would be like you sat in the old broken down unmoving libertarian train with hobos for years, only to leave just as it got renovations and sped off from the station. :P

wouldn't that make the effect even more dramatic though? generally Republicans gain more among likely voters.

unless, of course, we are facing historic hispanic turnout.

Certainly fits with the profile of largest colleges/universities in Iowa during the Democratic Primaries:

1.) University of Iowa-  (31k students). Johnson County (60-40 Bernie)
2.) Iowa State University- (36k students). Story County (60-40 Bernie)
3.) Des Moines Area Community College- (25k+ students in six campuses). Polk, Boone, Carroll, Jasper, Des Moines). Mixed voting results.
4.) Kirkwood Community College- (26.5k students). Multiple campuses. Main campus Linn County (52-48 Bernie)
5.) University of Northern Iowa- (12.7k students). Black Hawk County (53-47 Bernie).

Edited: Updated to reflect latest enrollment figures through the labyrinth of the World Wide Web

More polls showing VA and CO are out of reach at this point.

Hillary needs Bernie in IA to help max out the college vote, maybe Obama too (though he has below average approval here).

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

Damn!!!!

I know that Iowa has a ton of state and private colleges and universities and well-funded educational system, but for a relatively small population state, these are actually very impressive numbers.

Edit: Was trying to demonstrate large college populations with caucus results, so pulled some old data from the internet (Go figure. :( )

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

     Considering who the other options are, I would not be so sure of that.

Thanks for the feedback... attempted to update enrollment numbers based upon what I could find. :)

Now, the more fundamental question (For our resident Iowa residents, experts, students), is where are voters <35 and college-educated voters at in terms of the current Presidential Election?

Is this current poll simply an outlier on the cross-tabs, or for some reason are younger voters in Iowa either leaning narrowly towards Trump, or is there a massive residual "Bernie or Bust" active movement among his core supporters in this particular state?

Thanks for the updated numbers. While I am surprised that Trump is leading Clinton among younger voters in the state (if future polls hold), I think that the % of Trump supporters here would be higher than what some of you expect among college voters. I have a lot of interaction with UI students (and I would fit in the "young voter" category being late 20s) and while it's obvious Clinton will have a sizable margin here, I also see more Trump supporters around than you might think for a college town. A lot of in-state students come from smaller communities more likely to be conservative.

I don't have the break down or any numbers here, but ISU is known for their ag programs and attract a lot of farm kids who go for ag related degrees. ISU overall is less liberal than UI. That being said, UI has more international students and out of state students (noticeable population from Chicago+suburbs) who either can't vote or might be voting in their home state. Several students I have interacted with caucused for Bernie, but consider themselves democrat and would support whoever the D nominee is. The "Bernie or bust" kids I run into are some of the most annoying around. I think this group is small though and won't have an impact.

Young voters across the state are probably more conservative than young voters in other swing states. I hate making statements like this, but it's more likely that young liberal in-state college students who go to college anywhere in Iowa move to an urban out of state area upon graduation. Students who stick around or move back to their home communities are more likely to be conservative, making young voters more conservative overall here.

I know more students than I can count that are from the state and after graduation move to Chicago or Denver. All the ones I can think of now at the very minimum would vote democrat just to stop Trump even if they don't care for Clinton.

Clinton actually does better among LVs than RVs.  This is probably because college educated whites are very high turnout. 

In addition, the switch over to LVs often allows pollsters to refine or correct their sampling, which definitely seems to have happened with Quinnipiac. 

Because

Just like Johnson was polling 6% in Ohio in October 2012 and went on to take 0,8% on election day.

I can't speak for anyone else, but the reason why I'm at Iowa State is because the net cost is $5k cheaper than the U of M. Obviously I like the campus and academic programs, people, and etc., but cost was the deciding factor between the two schools. I do know that statistically the number of students from my HS who go to college in Iowa is significant.

Regarding voting, the state does not care if you sign up to vote there for four years or send an absentee ballot to your home state. There are some states that try to shame you into not registering there, but Iowa is not one of them. I personally vote down there since MN is not a swing state. Braley/Branstad in 2014, likely Hillary/Grassley this year.

It's interesting how close Iowa has remained with Trump crashing almost everywhere else.

In a world where Johnson actually has decent numbers.