Talk Elections

Evan Bayh - 54%
Todd Young - 36%


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/292213-new-poll-shows-bayh-with-18-point-lead

Internals are showing VERY high numbers for him. I think the Monmouth poll is more accurate, it's probably Bayh +7 right now. Young should pound hard on the residence issue, and also air positive ads about him. In the end this race will be VERY close.

Because they are internals.

I believe it's more in the +10-+12 category.

Even if you chopped his lead in half, +9 is still excellent.

Considering the nature of Indiana polling I'd take internals and lack of response from the GOP than the Monmouth.  At the rate of GOP fundraising as of late imo, the GOP should triage this race

Agreed. The Monmouth sample looked pretty R-friendly even for Indiana. Internals obviously have a skew.

I agree, and that's pretty impressive for a Democrat in Indiana running against a credible Republican opponent. That's why I think this is a lean D seat, Bayh wins in November

DOMINATING!

Looks like we've got 4-5 pickups already nailed down.

Personally, I expect Ohio and Florida to be the two that don't break Democratic.

I'm assuming you mean competitive senate races, not all senate races. Democrats are not winning AR, ID, AL, SD, etc.

Using the races I see as at least somewhat competitive, you'll have to get pretty lucky. IL, IN, WI, NH are clearly leaning your direction, but looking at the rest:

FL - I'm reserving any sort of YUGE judgment on this race until after the primary, but as of right now, Rubio appears to have an edge.

OH - Strickland is clearly the next Tommy Thompson/Bruce Braley. If Clinton wins by 8 or 10 points in Ohio he may be dragged in, but right now it looks like Trump will keep things decently close in OH, or perhaps even win it.

PA - While McGinty is certainly doing surprisingly well, the fact is she is running roughly 6 points behind Clinton (in terms of margin). If PA looks like it did in 2012 at the top (which is a perfectly reasonable scenario), I think Toomey can still pull it off. Barely, but still.

NC - Deborah Ross is a C-lister. I know that's not a disqualifier in NC, but still.

AZ - McCain has his toughest challenge of his senate career, yes, but as long as Trump carries the state by more than a point or two he should be okay. There won't be that many Trump/Kirkpatrick voters.

MO - B-lister in a state trending against your party. Enough said.

LA - I honestly don't know what's going on here. Very foolish to count on this race.

IA - I moved this out of Safe out of an abundance of caution, but all the evidence we have shows that while Grassley is getting something of a scare, he's in little danger of actually losing.

Getting 6/8 of the above (assuming you hold NV) sounds like a pipe dream.

That would be stupid. It is one of the few D leaning competitive seats, that is not likely going to be running up against a steep Presidential margin in the opposite direction.

You don't triage one of your easiest paths to keeping your current majority. If I was the NRSC, come October, I would be pouring most of the resources into IN, PA, AZ and NC (assuming Burr doesn't get his a## in gear before then).

I have the perfect issue for Todd Young to pound Evan Bayh on.  Hillary Clinton is going to win.  No matter how moderate Evan Bayh is, his first vote in the Senate will be for a Democratic Majority Leader.  Do you Indiana voters really want to give Hillary Clinton a blank check?

Wow this looks safe d good

Neverrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr call a race based on a party or internal poll.

Agreed,

I need to see a non-party internal before I make any judgement on this race.

There was a Monmouth poll few weeks back that had Bayh +7. You should note there won't be too many polls coming from Indiana because of it's robopoll ban.

Bayh in that range makes more sense. I give him 10-11 at most.

I think Bayh is leading Young by a low double-digit margin at the moment.

It was an incredibly rough night in Indiana.