Talk Elections

1,100 registered voters, Aug 19-21:

Clinton 40% (+9)
Trump 31%
Johnson 16%
Stein 4%

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/

Stein won't crack 2%.

Of note: Johnson leads Trump among young voters and it's a close 3-way among 30-45 year olds.

18-29 year olds:

Clinton 45%
Johnson 20%
Trump 15%


30-45 year olds:

Clinton 29%
Trump 28%
Johnson 21%

Nice to see him above 15% in a state, but if he can't get over about 15% in his home state, I don't like his odds of getting 15% nationwide.

Johnson was polling near double digits in 2012 but in the end he only got 3,5%.

Wow, this is better than I expected for New Mexico.  Clinton +9 would likely correspond to a margin-of-error-type race nationwide.

It does at least look like he has a good chance to actually crack 10% here which would be great for him since the LP needs 5% nationwide for federal funding in the future.

Obama won NM by 10 in 2012 so Clinton +9 still indicates a Clinton victory

Remember, PPP is all robo calls, likely underestimating Hispanic support for Clinton.

Lol, no.

Wow! Hispanos por Trump in New Mexico. 30% of Hispanics!

This poll has Trump down by only 21 points with Hispanic voters, which would be a massive improvement upon Romney's 2012 performance.  Now, if that actually happens, then yeah, NM will be closer than expected.  However, I'll guess this is another example of a robopoll having trouble polling Latinos.

ftfy


He did similarly well in a Utah poll. I'm quite surprised his Hispanic strength has been out west rather than eastern Cubans and Puerto Ricans, but it is possible that this is a very loosely defined Hispanic.

Except polls (PPP or not) were strikingly accurate in 2012:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nm/new_mexico_romney_vs_obama-2027.html#polls

In 2008, PPP also got New Mexico right while everyone else got it wrong:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html#polls

On Election Day, the claim that polls "underestimate Hispanic support" will look like the Romney campaign's claim that the polls "oversampled minorities and registered Democrats."

Manos pequeños

The biggest race other than for the Presidency in New Mexico will be for Secretary of State.

We shall just have to wait and see.

Yeah that +5 at a similar point in time was quite accurate.

"Similar point in time" in what regard?

We're closer to early-September than early-July right now, and we're past the conventions. Hence, the 9/7 - 9/9 poll is the poll that deserves attention.

Stop cherry-picking.

NM is not a state that would have many "missing" Hispanics in polls. It's Hispanic community is old and established, unlike places like Nevada.

I'm guessing that's what causing the discrepancies in the Hispanic vote there vs the entire country as a whole.

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-08-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3520160821108)

Summary: D: 40%, R: 31%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/)

I think Hillary will win by more than this, but at least this shows that it isn't competitive.

Therefore, results today should be basically what they will be in November -- barring a change in the dynamics of this election.

I think part of the reason it's "only" +9 has a lot to do with Johnson's currently huge numbers in the <45 category. Those will likely collapse and given the state's demos, probably to Clinton's slight advantage.