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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:03:07 pm



Title: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:03:07 pm
Clinton - 46%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 42%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 29, 2016, 12:03:58 pm
Here we go.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: heatcharger on August 29, 2016, 12:07:13 pm
I guess this is proof the race has tightened a bit; their last poll had her up 13. Pretty good state of affairs going into Labor Day though.

Also looks like Johnson might have hit a wall; hasn't gained anything from their last national poll.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:07:42 pm
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago :)

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 29, 2016, 12:10:45 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago :)

It matches the Quinnipiac poll and even though the convention boost has worn off, this race is still high single digits.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:10:54 pm
Also, horrible favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Xing on August 29, 2016, 12:11:42 pm
Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:11:48 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago :)

I'll take a poll any day that still has Trump under 40% and still has Clinton over 45%.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: heatcharger on August 29, 2016, 12:11:51 pm
Also, horrible approvals favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57

Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 12:12:59 pm
Also, horrible approvals favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57

Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.

Ah woops, I was tracking Obama's approval rating earlier and the words jumbled.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: F_S_USATN on August 29, 2016, 12:15:38 pm
Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 12:17:46 pm
The +13 was always a little out of the norm...+7 is about right


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:17:51 pm
Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
State polls for levels, nationall polls for trends. Kind of :)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 12:18:32 pm
Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.

Yup!


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:20:59 pm
Yes. It was approximately what LA times/other daily trackers were showing. But you didn't believe them.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: heatcharger on August 29, 2016, 12:30:11 pm
Lol at the gender gap:

Males: Trump 44%, Clinton 36%
Females: Clinton 50%, Trump 29%

Looks like angry American women will carry Clinton to victory.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 12:35:57 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago :)

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.

Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 12:36:49 pm
Quote
The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information.
Does that mean Monmouth actually admits to adjusting for self-ID D/R/I with this poll or are they talking about the recorded Party ID (not self-id) voter sample they should have gotten using random sampling from the voter list vs. what they drew from the poll?

E.G. When cross-referencing voter lists, Sample should be X% D, Y% R, Z% I from registration lists, but was A% D, B% R, C% I.

It was an R+2 sample, which ended up D+4 after the reweighs. Note that this is a question to some of you that are more versed at polling adjustments than I am, not a comment on the subject or the underlying polling itself.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:58:20 pm
Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago :)

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.

Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
Kind of. Even if I think that the race is C+4-6 right now rather than C+6-8.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 12:59:14 pm
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
()


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 01:01:18 pm
Also note, they did poll the 2-way and LV vs. RV.

LV favors Trump by 2 points in 2-way, no effect in 4-way.

2-way RV (802 RV) Clinton +9
Donald Trump   38% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   47% (-3)
Other                 4% (--)
Undecided          7% (+1)
No one               4% (--)

2-way LV (689 LV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump   42% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   49% (-5)
Other                 4% (+1)
Undecided          5% (+2)
No one               0% (--)

4-way RV (802 RV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump    36% (+2)
Hillary Clinton    43% (-3)
Gary Johnson      8% (+1)
Jill Stein              2% (--)
Other                  1% (+1)
Undecided           7% (+1)
No one                4% (--)

4-way LV (689 LV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump   39% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   46% (-4)
Gary Johnson     7% (--)
Jill Stein             2% (--)
Other                 1% (+1)
Undecided          5% (+2)
No one               0% (--)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 01:04:51 pm
8.      As of today, Donald Trump has not released his taxes because he says they are going through a routine I.R.S. audit.  Do you think he is keeping his taxes private because of the audit process or because there is something in those returns he doesn't want the public to know?

24%  Because of the audit
52%  Something he doesn't want the public to know
3%    (VOL) Both
5%    (VOL) Neither
16%  (VOL) Don't know


10.    Do you think Hillary Clinton gave special treatment to big donors of the Clinton Foundation when she was Secretary of State or did she do nothing out of the ordinary in the way she treated them?

54%  Special treatment
26%  Nothing out of the ordinary
20%  (VOL) Don't know


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: psychprofessor on August 29, 2016, 01:15:36 pm
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
()

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 01:18:38 pm
What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Horus on August 29, 2016, 01:19:32 pm
Looks about right, I think it's about Clinton +5 though.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: psychprofessor on August 29, 2016, 01:22:57 pm
What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 01:26:50 pm
What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.
These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
I understand that, but the net favorables should lie with the candidate that you pulled the lever for in most polls come election day.

The problem with this cycle is that both candidates are not liked very much by the electorate, so it math fails. Neither won't get 35% of the vote.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 01:31:18 pm
What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
I agree with you, that favorability ratings are pretty good indicatons, but this election might be littble off though, because both candidates are so dissliked. {And Shy Effect!!!111}

Besides that you compare favorability ratings of RV voters [this poll] with thouse who actually voted  (exit polls).

And according to Gallup daily tracker Hillary's lead were at 10 points maximum. Among National Adults.
Right now it is Clinton +7 :)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Maxwell on August 29, 2016, 01:34:38 pm
Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 01:36:16 pm
Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)

Also means that there are more Clinton voters out there and a successful GOTV effort could add an additional 2%.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: psychprofessor on August 29, 2016, 01:44:27 pm
Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)

Also means that there are more Clinton voters out there and a successful GOTV effort could add an additional 2%.

Some speculation on twitter suggests that Clinton can add 2-3% to her final pop vote total by taking advantage of early voting and ground operations. My initial thought at the beginning of the election was Clinton by 10 and I think that's a pretty good indication of where we will be come November.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on August 29, 2016, 03:28:10 pm
Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Cory Booker on August 29, 2016, 03:31:14 pm
Clinton will win Pa by 5-6 pts 46-40 enough to get Kate McGinty across. But, FL and OH are inconsistent.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 03:39:14 pm
Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 29, 2016, 03:40:23 pm
Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Apples and oranges.  The Emerson polls are landline only; the Monmouth poll is a nearly 50-50 mix of landlines and cellphones.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 04:52:30 pm
Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
Emerson's polls were their first general election polls of the cycle.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 04:57:32 pm
Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
Emerson's polls were their first general election polls of the cycle.
I was sarcastic. But there's a grain of truth in every joke ;)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 05:03:58 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 05:08:29 pm
Update:

Today the new numbers arrived. Now it just 5 points difference in their favorability. Clinton is at 38/56 (her all-time-low was 37/58 and that is also Trump's all-time-high ;D) while Trump on 33/61.

So from C+10 for two weeks ago to C+5 :) will do

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx)


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 29, 2016, 05:10:06 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Gass3268 on August 29, 2016, 05:42:21 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.

They are also alluding that there will probably be a TV release tonight. I'm guessing Rachel Maddow will have it.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 05:50:57 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.

They are also alluding that there will probably be a TV release tonight. I'm guessing Rachel Maddow will have it.
Does it indicate some BREAKING NEWS?
Don't think so, but you cannot take away hope from me ;D


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 06:25:16 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
Their latest poll showed Clinton +5 and was conducting directly after convention (JUL. 29-30)

So it depends on what they compared D-hapiness to. The state of the race or their latest poll.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Eraserhead on August 29, 2016, 06:27:46 pm
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
()

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.

Congratulations, President Neither!


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 07:41:33 pm
Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
()

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.

Congratulations, President Neither!
None of the Above from "Brewster's Millions." A valid option in Nevada, IIRC.


Title: Re: Monmouth National: Clinton +7
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 29, 2016, 08:06:43 pm
PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
Their latest poll showed Clinton +5 and was conducting directly after convention (JUL. 29-30)

So it depends on what they compared D-hapiness to. The state of the race or their latest poll.

PPP usually considers context. Anything below a 5-7% lead would disappoint. So I think 4-6% Clinton lead.