Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-national-lead-steady.html

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 4%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

So absolutely no change from the last PPP poll

No change from their last poll. Thats abit of a relief.

About what  you would expect at this point.

This jives with Q/Monmouth at Clinton +7 and the growing difference between robopolls and live caller polls (1-2 points).

Was PPP releasing an OH poll as well?

When they said 5 on the excitement meter, i didnt think they meant it so literally.

robo polls are coming in lower for clinton versus live interviews in english/spanish...

Seems about right....Donnie is under 40% in basically every 4-way poll.

I'm guessing 99% of johnson voters are suburban whites with degrees.

Oh... that's fine.

Either that or college students.  

BTW fargo, i'm the mich dude on tigerdroppings.

Trump's favorables with African American voters are:
Favorable: 0%
Unfavorable: 97%
Undecided 3%

lololololololol

Things with higher favorabilities among Blacks than Trump in that same poll: Bed bugs, the Bubonic Plague, and middle seats on airplanes.

Edit: A word

Man, I'd feel terrible about myself if only 5% more of Americans prefer me to those things.

Yeah, I remember you saying that you were Marty over here.

L-O-L

Is this unprecedented?

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Zero change in the margin from last time

#Tightening

But I thought the race was tightening and us Hillary supporters should be sweating!

For all the talk about his Latino problems, the bigger issue is with Blacks. I mean, is it possible that Hillary outperforms Obama among African Americans? Add to that she probably out performs Obama with Latino's and college educated whites and you see why the urban and suburban areas around Philly, DC, Charlotte, Denver/Boulder, etc..are all swinging heavily for Clinton.

Higher opinion of Trump or _____? (Correction, Trump actually beat bed bugs)

Trump - 42%
Middle seats on airplanes - 45%

Trump - 42%
Personal injury lawyers - 42%

Trump - 56%
Bed bugs - 34%

Among just African Americans:

()

Among just Hispanics:

()

But the tracking polls show a trend. ;) There will be shy Trump voters like Brexit ;D

Jesus Christ!

If that is the case, then it is a poverty that so many people are ashamed of their values.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

I've had Clinton +8.5 as my (written on a post-it in my drawer for posterity) prediction for a while now, and I think this and Monmouth are looking good for that.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5

Except Pew and Bloomberg, but who's counting.

You, but you need everything you can get.

The last Bloomberg was +6 two-way wasn't it?

We weren't going to make up the deficit overnight, but we're on track to come out ahead on November 8th!!

Wow, yeah! All of that no movement at all...

()

This poll and Monmouth may be fatal to any hopes Gary Johnson had of waging an extra relevant third party campaign. He isn't getting into the debates with less than half of 15%.

Not sure why they included McMullin in a national poll. Why even bother polling him outside Utah? He isn't on enough ballots to have a theoretical chance of winning.

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.

Yeah. He's on 7 ballots the last time I checked. Maybe something like 50 electoral votes.

It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead :(


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now :)

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.

But it is what LA times approximately shows. It has Trump +6 house effect according to 538. So I don't really understand problem with those trackers.

My perception is that the race is at Clinton +5-7%, hopping for 4-6% for now.

My problem is that it throws the aggregates, namely RCP. I don't really care what Nate Silver likes or dislikes or that he knows the house effect. I care that this obvious garbage is skewing the picture.

Understood! Even though I don't understand why care about RCP.

Of course!

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I know it doesn't sound like a 10 points margin win right now, but I believe it will be the result in the end.

The full poll is out: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf

I hate people and love the PPP:

....................................................

Lol, what!? ;D ;D ;D

PPP is amazing

Stupid question, because Muslims can come through Pacific Ocean as well. More walls! LOL ;D

Imagine what happens when they learn that Muslims from India and Indonesia come mainly through the Pacific.

I hope they counted the first few questions if you hung up on PPP this poll. As a Republican, I'd be incensed if I had to go through those nonsensical, sophomoric questions about Trump vs. Zika. It reeks of unprofessionalism and is insulting.

A few questions, fine, but like 20 of them. I'd think the thing was a joke or a Democrat push poll. Especially as an IVR poll.

If they didn't, you may honestly have a sample bias.

it's honestly pretty remarkable that this poll is as consistent as it is - Clinton and Trump's favorables each decrease by five, and they each lose some voters.

which means, hilariously, the whole PIVOT isn't exactly working so far.

Trump only wins whites by 15 - not nearly a large enough margin to win.

All of these statements sound accurate....

As others noted on the first page of the thread, the no change in the PPP National poll from the end of July to end of August is the most positive development.

Ipsos could be indicating a slight tightening of the race, but then again their numbers have been a bit over the map the past month.

Aren't we getting close to another round of A-Grade Marist/ABC-WP/NBC-WSJ polls soon that should give us a better idea of where the national numbers are really at?

Trump is the ultimate sh*tposter, though.

I mean, it objectively is tightening. But that was obviously going to happen when she was leading by 8-10 points. That's not sustainable in such a polarized environment and was clearly a convention bounce.

Of course, then the resident trolls and chicken littles try to extrapolate her numbers coming back down to earth to "SHE'S DOOMED! TRUMP IS INEVITABLE!11!!!"

LOL

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

One good thing that PPP does that few if any of the other pollsters are doing is separating out how much Johnson draws from Clinton vs. Trump as opposed to how much Stein draws from Clinton vs. Trump:

People who support Clinton in the 2-way race:
Clinton 87%
Stein 5%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 0%
Undecided 3%

People who support Trump in the 2-way race:
Trump 88%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 1%
Stein 1%
Undecided 6%

So, unsurprisingly, Johnson pulls evenly from Clinton and Trump, while Stein pulls mostly from Clinton.  OTOH, the addition of the 3rd party candidates moves some Trump voters to “undecided”.