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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: heatcharger on August 31, 2016, 12:07:50 pm



Title: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: heatcharger on August 31, 2016, 12:07:50 pm
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Will be interesting to compare to the Marquette poll.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Gass3268 on August 31, 2016, 12:09:25 pm
Will be interesting to compare to Marquette here in 5 minutes.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 31, 2016, 12:09:46 pm
Closer than PA... called it.

Will be interesting to compare to Marquette here in 5 minutes.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: F_S_USATN on August 31, 2016, 12:10:23 pm
The closeness of that margin makes Feingold's +13 even better


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Xing on August 31, 2016, 12:11:16 pm
Interesting that it's a bit tighter than I thought, but this state is definitely still Hillary's to lose.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: rob in cal on August 31, 2016, 12:12:25 pm
   Junk poll, does not fit narrative of Trump collapse. Please disregard.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Seriously? on August 31, 2016, 12:12:37 pm
Ouch. Marquette comes out later today, right?


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: F_S_USATN on August 31, 2016, 12:13:12 pm
Time to dust off the FL, NC, OH, IA, WI 269 map quick before MUlaw comes out


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: john cage bubblegum on August 31, 2016, 12:13:16 pm
Surprisingly close.  Monmouth is a good pollster, but their small samples allow for a pretty high MoE.  Let's see what Marquette has to say.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Speed of Sound on August 31, 2016, 12:16:39 pm
Another poll showing that Hillary has seen her support decline, but Trump is still not actually generating any new support of his own.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: KingSweden on August 31, 2016, 12:17:01 pm
Ouch. Perhaps some recovery in WOW for Trump?


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: NOVA Green on August 31, 2016, 12:18:59 pm
Ouch. Perhaps some recovery in WOW for Trump?

Quite likely.... looks like he is consolidating the Republican vote to a greater extent than before in WI based on this poll.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 31, 2016, 12:21:26 pm
   Junk poll, does not fit narrative of Trump collapse. Please disregard.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 31, 2016, 12:24:57 pm
Another poll showing that Hillary has seen her support decline, but Trump is still not actually generating any new support of his own.
You are one of the few Clinton's supporters here, who I mostly agree with :)

Hope it does not sound as an insult for you ;D


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2016, 12:28:04 pm
Houston ... we have a problem.

Hope she's not BLOWING it.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: HillOfANight on August 31, 2016, 12:48:25 pm
This seems like proof ads are working, as WI is closer now than CO/PA after those states have been bombarded with ads. In 2012, Obama won WI by 7, CO by 5, PA by 5.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: BlueSwan on August 31, 2016, 01:27:22 pm
I'm genuinely surprised by these WI polls. I honestly would have thought the margin to be around +10 or so.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: afleitch on August 31, 2016, 01:53:07 pm
Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: skoods on August 31, 2016, 01:55:38 pm
Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: BlueSwan on August 31, 2016, 01:59:23 pm
Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
Not sure I agree. Almost all the polls seem to show the same pattern right now.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 31, 2016, 02:16:14 pm
Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
Not sure I agree. Almost all the polls seem to show the same pattern right now.

I think it's clear that there's been some tightening here and there.  A couple of weeks ago, the polls seemed to indicate a Clinton lead of something like 6-7, and now it's more like 4-5.  Now it seems that we're seeing a fluctuation in the general trend of the race, as opposed to random fluctuation in individual polls.  But this isn't unreasonable; it's more unlikely that the race would remain static or move in only one direction for the rest of the campaign.

+4-5 isn't as good as +6-7, but it's still a number that you'd really prefer to be on the positive side of.  Democrats should be neither panicking nor overconfident; Republicans should be worried, but not without hope.  It's still a long 10 weeks until Election Day.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on August 31, 2016, 04:35:49 pm
Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.

How can you even compare this election to 2012?? Romney didn't punch himself 30 times with all the gaffes like Trump.


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 31, 2016, 04:46:06 pm
Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.

How can you even compare this election to 2012?? Romney didn't punch himself 30 times with all the gaffes like Trump.
And Romney didn't get outperformed by Obama in ads spending in the same level as Trump by Hillary :)


Title: Re: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on August 31, 2016, 04:48:52 pm
Trump definitely seems to be catching up to some degree.