Talk Elections

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed

Those Brownback numbers are hilarious and sad.

Well, Kansas, if you don't like Brownback, you shouldn't have voted for him. It's not like Paul Davis was a dud like Braley or Michaud, either.

Anyway, #BattlegroundKansas is pretty amusing.

It's very possible Hillary can do well there and here in SD. I been seeing so much Hillary signs and bumper stickers here.

Would be very funny if a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats took over the State Senate and State House of Representatives.

This is the second poll to show Kansas within single digits and this one was conducted by a GOP firm with a huge sample size (7700 voters)

Bernie ain't doing much outside of NH. Send him on a 2 week college bus tour of the midwest and whip those caucus supporters into the polls

If Kansas is within single digits, then Nebraska probably is too. And if that's the case, then Clinton should be winning NE-02.

We need PPP to do a Nebraska poll with the CD breakdown. If they got something like Trump +10 to +12 that actually means NE-2 is Lean D and NE-1 is in play

#BattlegroundKansas returns!

It actually seems legit now.

2014 is the devil's year, bruh

Kansas is one of those states where the polls always look closer than they really are.

So far as I can tell, Romney never polled below +14, and McCain never polled below +12 (final poll was +21). Yes it was closer than the final result, but this poll is still half the margin Romney polled at.

Muh large sample size! I eagerly await Nate's #analysis on this matter. I'm sure he'll find some way to unskew it into bad news for Hillary. That's assuming he ever adds it to the site. It's certainly more credible than those Reuters "polls" which were swiftly added (not that that's saying much.)

New Poll: Kansas President by Other Source on 2016-08-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2020160823106)

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed#)

Nate is Trump troll, huh?

Donald Trump is not the normal Presidential nominee from a mainstream Party.

I can't see Clinton makingg this competative if she's only polling 37%. most undecideds and Johnsonites will come home to the GOP in the end.

Johnson seems to be pulling pretty evenly from both camps in polling, but we'll see how thongs turn out on election day.

If the Democrats can win these states in the future, it's a great way of winning the Senate even while losing the presidential race.

Probably won't happen though.

If anything it would be Donald Trump making these states competitive. He is that bad!

Should this belong in the internal polling thread?

Regardless, we should all feel lucky and take whatever few meager polls of Kansas we will likely get before November.

It appears, unless I'm reading it wrong that this was commissioned by Kansas Republicans to demonstrate how the "Kansas Republican Civil War" is creating potential significant short, medium, and longer term consequences to the Party and control of state government.

Even despite the dubious source, this isn't the first poll to show Kansas much closer than it should be, and also seems to indicate that "Bleeding Kansas" is once again ground zero in a Civil War, this time mainly confined to one extremely divided statewide political party that is creating openings that moderate statewide Democrats can exploit.

bingo

I'm not sure that the Great Plains are trending Democratic so much as just that Brownback may be so unpopular that any Democrat was destined to overperform in Kansas in 2016. It's really difficult to square a pronounced leftward movement in Kansas with a pronounced rightward movement in Iowa unless you look at local, probably one-time effects.

Greg Orman has been maneuvering to run for Governor as "independent with Democratic backing" in 2018, correct? If he ends up facing Kobach in the general election he could very well win.

Donald Trump is doing horribly in New Hampshire, a state with one of the highest percentages of white Catholics.

Trump is going to under perform base Republican numbers in counties like Johnson, Douglas and Shawnee.

Trump's underperformance in the plain states is likely due to his massive decline with white college educated voters when republicans tend to do very well with such voters in these states. Iowa has a larger population of voters without college degrees, counteracting and overcoming such a decline with college educated voters.

Too bad Brownback is term-limited.  That's a primary campaign we'd all like to see.

gonna go ahead and say Remington is trash. That being said, I have no idea if they're right wing trash or left wing trash.

As usual, college-educated people tend to reject demagogues, and this time the demagogue is on the Right side of the political spectrum (except on foreign policy). They have paid attention to formal logic, typically from their high-school geometry course, they are capable of detecting contradictions, and they have some historical perspective. Demagogues invariably make reckless promises that ill-educated people can rarely reject for reasons other than ideology. Well-educated people can reject those contradictions because they pay attention.

The Plains states from Kansas to North Dakota have high educational standards (which distinguishes Kansas from neighboring Oklahoma, where Donald Trump is doing well)  Hillary Clinton cannot win these states on her own; except for 1964, none of these states (exception: NE-02, largely Greater Omaha) has gone for any Democratic nominee for President since the 46-state landslide by FDR. Donald Trump can lose one or more of these conservative-but-not crazy states.