Talk Elections

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link. (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ce9f61436f9b420dbb5ef12240d1424a.pdf)

Looks like Emerson has been busy lately, lol.

Busy confirming that they are junk.

Landline only, weighted for 2012 results! Hysterically bad methodology.

Im moving this race to "Trump loses the state by biggest margin for GOP since 44" to "Mccain level loss"

Lots of polls with an apparent and large house advantage for Republicans?

English only, landline only.

Basically add 5 points to Clinton in any Emerson poll an then they make sense.

Maybe more like 8

lmao

Unskeeeeeew!

You have to admit that the methodology is awful.

Confirms the Hampton U poll that has it at Clinton +2.

Given the state of the polling and VA's PVI which is about Even, this is not a shocking result.

Two awful polls don't confirm much of anything other than that they're awful.

I guess Emerson decided its purpose in life is to make Gravis look good by comparison.

Unskewing is dumb, I admit. But pointing out that a firm has a bias isnt unskewing. I'm not suggesting that "all the polls" are missing X, Y, or Z types of people, I'm saying this firm clearly appears to have methodological and weighting issues that appear to consistently produce pro Trump results. I'm sure the race has narrowed since the conventions, but I doubt if Emerson was polling 3 weeks ago it would have shown Trump doing about 5 points better than everyone else.

Or 12!

So, a poll is considered bad by Atlas if it shows a pro-GOP result and good if it shows a pro-Democrat one??

I'm terrified that I find myself agreeing with you on this.

At this rate, I think it makes a lot more sense to agree that things have tightened significantly than to find reasons to doubt every poll.

It may be true that this poll is questionable at best. But it's not a total fabrication. Give Clinton a few extra points and the race is still closer than it should be, and certainly too close for comfort.

Its a landline. English only robo poll. Its junk.

You are reasonable :)

Yep

Do Emerson's polls seem to be about 5 points more Trump-favorable than the consensus? Yes
Does that necessarily mean that Emerson's polls have a 5 point bias? No

If it really was this close, Clinton wouldn't have the ads. The fact that her staff is advising her to prepare for a landslide tells you all you need to know about this election. It is not going to be close at all.

Mitt Romney's staff told him the same thing.

These Emerson polls are junk because people voting for Trump? Seriously? That's like voting for Kanye West.

Mitt Romney is not Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is not Barack Obama, so I fail to see a valid comparison. Republicans always overestimate their chances. Democrats rarely do.

Get help. Really get help.

If VA and CO are tightening too now, Hillary has a problem.

Not a big problem yet, but a problem ...

Yes

If you don't understand why a landline only poll would produce a skewed result, or why weighting results based on 2012's vote is a bad idea, you honestly should not be on this forum.

B-b-but... red avatars are such hacks! It's totally possible Virginia swung 10+ points within a month!

To be clear: If Emerson used their exact current methodology and got a result saying Hillary was decently leading, I would still say this is a junk poll.

Who knows, though. Maybe people who only know English and have landlines will vote in Virginia in two months, amIright?

I believe you, folks!

This.
Really, please stop to find every possible justification. The race is tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but it's more close that one month ago.

She'll win 272-303 electors and FL isn't needed to win.

Emerson is looking really dumb with putting out such junk.

I'll hold out for a post labor day poll that includes landlines from a decent grade pollster before making any assumptions that VA has tightened so dramatically.

For one, we've had multiple polls showing Hillary leading by overwhelming margins in NOVA, decent margins in the crucial swing area of SE VA and this only shows her up 43-34 "In the Northern part of the state" while holding a slight edge in SE VA.

The math for NOVA doesn't appear to match even the past few Presidential Elections, let alone what CW tells us about college educated White voters, as well as the fast growing minority populations in this part of the state, for even a baseline Clinton margin there.

Busier than everyone else? Busier than everyone else combined, except for some advocacy-group polling by PPP? Something could be fishy here.

Quinnipiac and Marist at most poll three states at a time, and then they rotate among the states in question.  But Emerson College is polling every imaginable swing state?  This looks about as kosher as a ham-and-cheese sandwich with clam sauce on the side, with wine made with libations to Bacchus. 

Where did you read this?

Please, shoot me...
Everyone likes conspiracy theories!!!!111

The race has tightened a bit, however bad landline only polls with terrible methodology are still bad landline only polls with terrible methodology.

They are B pollster with R house effect [according to 538], what's a problem?
They were not terrbile before [according to 538], so they probably are not terrible now.
And their results are consistent with nationall polls (after house effect adjustment).

So yeah, what's your problem?

That is a MAJOR problem for her.

Not to mention that all these polls get dumped from the worst polling weekend of the election season, where many Americans are enjoying their last Summer vacation, taking their kids out for the day/week, younger Americans are enjoying their last weekend before they go back to college, and basically you have a large number of Seniors sitting at home and responding to automated polls!

If I didn't know better, one might suspect that Emerson's poll dump based upon the shoddiest methodology and where the samples are least representative of the actual electorate, were actually just shills to pump up the most favorable Trump numbers so he can create a sense of false confidence to his supporters, and go back to tweeting about his awesome poll numbers.

These polls definitely don't appear Kosher, considering the extreme combination of red meat and cheese involved. Looks Treif to me....

No, it's because of the hilariously horrible methodology. Landline only, and using the results of the LAST election to weight an opinion poll is just wrong.

No, not conspiracy, just telling the (for you) sad truth that you still can't seem to get.

One more time. Those polls are pretty much consistent with polls coming from A pollsters like Fox, Mounmouth, IBD, ABC, Franklin and Marshall College and many others. The race HAVE tightened considerably. But Emerson has 2-4% house effect and were conducted in the middle of Emails/Foundation scandals.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)

garbage in, garbage out

Yeah.Why just not trust the pollster that "has been cited as the most accurate in the past three presidential elections.". IBD/TIPP shows tie :)

With landlines one has an obsolescent technology. If something were to take out the landline grid, then it would not be rebuilt except for highly-specialized purposes. Prime example: after the Second Gulf War that took out the Iraqi telephone structure, the Kurds in the autonomous (and effectively independent, anti-fascist part of Iraq) went practically 100% cellular. Such was cheaper, safer, and more reliable than land lines.  Reliance upon demographics wedded to some obsolete technology implies a distorted sample.

Normal consumer use is not one of those specialized uses. Reliance on landlines will soon be as obsolete as using pre-recorded VHS tapes for entertainment.

Wireless technology is never more reliable. Landlines are the way to go for quality and reliability. They are not obsolete yet and will not be obsolete for many years to come, if ever.

Notice any problems here?

()

I am talking about quality and reliability. I don't have a landline phone at home, because reliability and quality isn't as important for households. It is important for businesses and will remain in use there.

It is vital for the military and government and will never be abandoned.

Regardless of whatever uses it still has, it is simply an illegitimate practice for a pollster to only call landlines and pretend that it has conducted something worthy of being called a reputable poll. Unless the poll is specifically being done to demonstrate the dangers in landline-only polling (which even then of course should not be treated in averages like a standard poll), it should be covered with so much salt that you can't even see it anymore.

Where the telephone must remain stationary, or for someone who has difficulty using a cellular phone (typically someone very old), landlines will survive. 

One security company now uses cell phones as its means of reporting residential break-ins because crooks can cut telephone wires.

The unreliability of a cell phone, other than failing to pay for the service, is failing to keep the phone charged. Communication on a cell phone can be very, very good.