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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 06:11:11 am



Title: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 06:11:11 am
Sample sizes for each state at least 550

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 06, 2016, 06:15:14 am
Some uh, notable results here.
Mississippi = Trump + 2
North Carolina = Tie
Georgia = Tie
Arizona = Clinton + 1
Iowa = Trump + 4
Ohio = Trump + 3
Michigan = Clinton + 2
Wisconsin = Clinton + 2
Texas = Clinton + 1


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 06, 2016, 06:15:24 am
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 06, 2016, 06:16:30 am
You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 06:17:40 am
Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2016, 06:19:52 am
Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 06, 2016, 06:20:22 am
Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 06:21:13 am
Reading through the results.

2-way: Clinton +2 in FL and CO, TIED in GA. RIP Swing state Connecticut. Trump up 15 in IN, 4 in IA. ME within single digits. Clinton up 2 in MI, 9 in MN, Trump only up TWO in MS. RIP swing state Missouri. Clinton up 9 in NH, 5 in NV, tied in NC. Trump is up 3 in Ohio, somebody assassinated all the happy Dakota farmers. Clinton up in TX ??? Trump up 7 in SC (maybe next time), Clinton up 8 in VA, 4 in PA, RIP swing states Oregon, Utah. #Trumpunder60 in WV.

4-way: tie in CO, Clinton +2 in FL, Trump +1 in GA. Trump +4 in IA, Clinton +3 (!) in ME, Clinton +1 in MI, Clinton +6 in NH, JOHNSON AT 25% IN NM, UT within single digits, STEIN AT 10% IN VT.

smallest sample size: VT with 550, largest: TX with 5,147

It's good to see a 50-state poll that is actually good. Can't wait to see fivethirtyeight add these.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 06:28:43 am
Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright

If you do 50 polls 3 or 4 of them will be outliers and in this case it looks like TX, MS, MI and WI are the outliers


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Trapsy on September 06, 2016, 06:29:32 am
Quote
With nine weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump is within striking distance in the Upper Midwest, but Hillary Clinton’s strength in many battlegrounds and some traditional Republican strongholds gives her a big electoral college advantage, according to a 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll.

The survey of all 50 states is the largest sample ever undertaken by The Post, which joined with SurveyMonkey and its online polling resources to produce the results. The state-by-state numbers are based on responses from more than 74,000 registered voters during the period of Aug. 9 to Sept. 1. The individual state samples vary in size from about 550 to more than 5,000, allowing greater opportunities than typical surveys to look at different groups within the population and compare them from state to state.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-new-50-state-poll-shows-exactly-why-clinton-holds-the-advantage-over-trump/2016/09/05/13458832-7152-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/50-state-poll/


Despite how atrocious HRC is performing, Trump is really doing damage. Obviously, I am taking this with a grain of salt but god how bad is trump gonna ruin the down ticket candidates across the country.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 06, 2016, 06:29:39 am
Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.

What would the outliers be?


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 06, 2016, 06:33:25 am
Although I kind of want Texas to be tied so we can actually be important for once :)


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on September 06, 2016, 06:39:18 am
Somebody poll Maine and Mississipi ASAP


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 06, 2016, 06:39:43 am
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 06, 2016, 06:39:50 am
Gary Johnson is at 25% in New Mexico, close to overtaking Trump for 2nd place.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Lok on September 06, 2016, 06:40:17 am
How is Mississippi, Texas and Georgia a toss-up when states like Ohio and Iowa are on the Republican side?


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 06:40:30 am
2-way map (shading based on size of the lead):

()

Clinton 357
Trump 150
Tied 37

4-way (shading based on size of the lead):

()

Clinton 298
Trump 193
Tied 47

Strength maps (based on the 4-way; shading is relative, 50% shading for Clinton and Trump means 36-40%, for Johnson it's 7-9%, for Stein it's 5%)

Clinton:

()

Trump:

()

Johnson:

()

Johnson is at or above 10% in 42 states, and at or above 15% in 14 states.

Stein:

()

Stein only reaches double digits in one state (Vermont), where she's still in fourth place.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 06, 2016, 06:41:46 am
Hope this is right, if only because the map would be fun.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Trapsy on September 06, 2016, 06:46:36 am
How is Mississippi, Texas and Georgia a toss-up when states like Ohio and Iowa are on the Republican side?

\_(ツ)_/¯


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 06, 2016, 07:13:41 am
Some of these seem right while others seem wrong


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 07:31:24 am
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.

But Clinton also losing in Iowa. We have seen a trend for polls showing Hilary Clinton slipping behind in Iowa. 

If well-educated white suburbanites are beginning to vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as they are doing in such states as California and Illinois (extreme D states),  Minnesota and Pennsylvania (not-so-extreme D states) or Florida and Ohio (legitimate swing states), then Donald Trump can lose those three states. Maricopa County (including practically all of Greater Phoenix, including its suburbs) and Tarrant in Texas (including most of the western half of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" go D if the suburban white vote goes about half D. Texas has some suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Johnson, Fort Bend, and Galveston that could swing enough votes to make the state swing strongly D. Enough? Who knows?

...Something on Texas: the right-wing swing in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s resulted from newcomers then largely from the North and West being more Republican than Texans on the whole. But such people have kept their Northern political cultures while the Republicans grabbed the "Yellow Dog" Democrats who voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. (Texas was close when Bill Clinton was running for President... but remember well that southwestern Arkansas, where Bill Clinton is from, is much like eastern Texas). The Northern political culture has become much more Democratic.

It could be that political trends in Texas lag those in such states as Florida and Virginia. Of course, this could also be a one-time event.

Hillary Clinton obviously wins Ohio before she wins Texas. 

Is it possible for a Republican nominee for President to be callow and crass enough to offend enough Texas voters to cause some a million or so to vote against that nominee? Sure. It is possible. Hillary Clinton cannot win Texas, but Donald Trump can certainly lose it.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Kempros on September 06, 2016, 07:41:25 am
I'm questioning the credibility of polls this season. Reuters/Ipsos just polled Texas 5 days ago with Trump leading by 17.
I doubt the state swung 18 points in 5 days.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 07:44:41 am
Basically I can start over with this set of polls in my general map. There may be some strange results.... but counter-intuitive results can be right.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: muon2 on September 06, 2016, 07:47:47 am
In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Kempros on September 06, 2016, 07:49:34 am
As far as the Dallas/Fort Worth is concerned, from what I notice is that Trump support runs high. Maybe more so then previous Rep nominees.

To win Texas, you would probably have to do well in the DFW and shut out the Houston area, and just don't see Clinton doing that this time.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 08:02:48 am
I'm questioning the credibility of polls this season. Reuters/Ipsos just polled Texas 5 days ago with Trump leading by 17.
I doubt the state swung 18 points in 5 days.

Yeah, that's ridiculous, but if one poll had to be wrong, it would be Reuters, which has produced some weird outliers this year. Before Reuters, there was only one poll that showed Trump leading by more than 10, and the most recent pre-Reuters poll (by PPP) showed Trump up by 6 last month (at the same time Reuters showed him up 14). The PPP poll had a larger sample size and was a better indicator of the race then. It makes more sense to assume a 6-7 point swing over the course of a month than an 18 point swing over a week. However, it's probably best to average the polls to get Trump +9, which makes the most sense.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Snek! on September 06, 2016, 08:04:53 am
Do you think people are lying to pollsters more than in the past? I do think that Texas or Utah won't really be that close and that Colorado will only be that close if Trump wins. For that matter, I don't expect Arizona or Georgia to be any close that they have been unless Clinton wins and by enough to get at least close in the Senate. Of course, regional politics might be in decline.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 08:05:44 am
Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey :)


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Mallow on September 06, 2016, 08:06:35 am
In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.

Yep. People automatically say "junk" to these 50-state polls because of odd inconsistencies, but odd inconsistencies are to be expected simply from statistical noise. That doesn't mean all the data is worthless. It means we should be considering all polls, regardless of whether they're released as a single state poll or a group of them, with the proper amount of skepticism. They're useful, but there's bound to be errors.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 06, 2016, 08:07:23 am
This poll was taken from Aug 9 to Sep 1 throw it in the trash


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 08:10:09 am
Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey :)

It's Washington Post/Survey Monkey. It's on the Washington Post's website. The Washington Post has an A+ grade.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 06, 2016, 08:12:34 am
The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: LLR on September 06, 2016, 08:25:51 am
LOL Johnson's at 25 in NM and 23 in UT :P


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 08:28:07 am
The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash

No, but Trump's not doing so well in this poll if it was taken over a 4 day period you'd still find an excuse to say it's trash.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Sorenroy on September 06, 2016, 08:30:01 am
Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 08:30:31 am
Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is from Survey Monkey :)


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: ExtremeConservative on September 06, 2016, 10:10:22 am
Let's give Trump Florida and Michigan (where he's down by 1 or 2- or insert PA for MI if you prefer).  Then, you get this fun map:

I'm making the executive decision that if he's only down 3 in Maine, he's up in ME-02.  Not sure about being up 10 in Nebraska relative to NE-02, especially that's the part of the state where Johnson and Stein will do well.

()

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TEXAS!!!


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 06, 2016, 10:11:49 am
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 06, 2016, 10:16:56 am
Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on September 06, 2016, 10:23:13 am
These 50-state polls are always junk. Much as I'd like to believe that Texas is a virtual tie, it's not. And Iowa will not be to the right of it.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Figueira on September 06, 2016, 10:35:05 am
Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright

You can't ignore a poll purely because you don't like the results. I highly doubt Clinton is leading in Texas, but it's still a good poll AFAICT.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: ExtremeConservative on September 06, 2016, 11:00:15 am
The second page of comments isn't displaying for me, even though I know there are more (I posted about an hour ago, and that and all subsequent ones won't show up).

FIXED


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 11:15:14 am
You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!
Keep in mind that with this poll, about 2 1/2 polls will fail as a matter of science. Some screwy results should be expected.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Mallow on September 06, 2016, 11:59:45 am
Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.

It says right in the article that the sample size was too small for DC. Just because its population is higher doesn't mean more people were surveyed.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 12:13:45 pm
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.

I don't believe it myself. First of all, the three-way poll suggests a tie, and a 1% lead for a Democratic nominee where no Democratic nominee has had a lead since at least 1996? The word "significant" keeps us from accepting insignificant leads as proof of someone having a good chance. The last PPP poll had Trump up by 5% or so. There has been no Presidential campaigning in Texas. I don;t expect many ad buys in the fiendishly-expensive TV markets of Texas. 

But if Texas is much closer than normal, then that may say things about some other states that aren't so R-leaning as Texas -- like Arizona and Georgia.   


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 12:21:23 pm
Also keep in mind that Survey Monkey is still RV vs. LV. for Reuters That may also explain some of the differences.

Also for some of the Reuters polls, the MOEs are crazy, generally for states with less than 3,000,000 or so in population or < 6 EV.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Ebsy on September 06, 2016, 12:26:36 pm
Texas!


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Maxwell on September 06, 2016, 12:27:27 pm
You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!

RE-ALIGNMENT FOLKS!


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 12:33:48 pm
Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?
Yes, it should. Whoever added it as WaPo is lyin', crocked pundit! :D


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Tender Branson on September 06, 2016, 12:42:58 pm
Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.

What would the outliers be?

TX and MS.

Those 2 will be easy Trump wins.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 06, 2016, 01:15:10 pm
LOL Johnson's at 25 in NM and 23 in UT :P

He’s within striking distance of 2nd place in both states.  :P

New Mexico
Clinton 37%
Trump 29%
Johnson 25%
Stein 5%

Utah
Trump 34%
Clinton 27%
Johnson 23%
Stein 5%


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: OwlRhetoric on September 06, 2016, 01:55:05 pm
McMuffin will surely pull at least a few percent off Johnson in Utah. Otherwise looks reasonable. Though I think he will slide across the board closer to the election without being in the debates.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Eraserhead on September 06, 2016, 03:17:03 pm
Wow, not sure how credible these are but they're definitely fun to look at.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 06, 2016, 03:33:28 pm
SurveyMonkey is a C- pollster for a reason... but those Johnson numbers!


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: olowakandi on September 06, 2016, 04:05:55 pm
Trump is in so much trouble, FL, VA and AZ.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Noted Irishman on September 06, 2016, 04:34:40 pm
Since each state has a sample size sufficient enough to be its own poll, I think it's very important to not discount the overall showing because of a few outliers. Conduct 50 polls of the country - or of any state - and you're bound to have at least a few ridiculous outliers. In this case, MS and TX, with a few more that are less absurd.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: LLR on September 06, 2016, 05:00:39 pm
Since each state has a sample size sufficient enough to be its own poll, I think it's very important to not discount the overall showing because of a few outliers. Conduct 50 polls of the country - or of any state - and you're bound to have at least a few ridiculous outliers. In this case, MS and TX, with a few more that are less absurd.

Not to undermine your point, but RI is a much bigger outlier than either MS or TX


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: OneJ on September 06, 2016, 05:14:45 pm
Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! :D


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 06, 2016, 05:15:21 pm
Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! :D
No


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 05:16:16 pm
Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! :D

Questions 1-2 and 5-8 are being held "for future release". So, you're gonna have to wait.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 06, 2016, 05:17:21 pm
Anyone know whether they polled the Senate races? That would be amazing...


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: NOVA Green on September 06, 2016, 05:25:01 pm
Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.

But Clinton also losing in Iowa. We have seen a trend for polls showing Hilary Clinton slipping behind in Iowa. 

If well-educated white suburbanites are beginning to vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as they are doing in such states as California and Illinois (extreme D states),  Minnesota and Pennsylvania (not-so-extreme D states) or Florida and Ohio (legitimate swing states), then Donald Trump can lose those three states. Maricopa County (including practically all of Greater Phoenix, including its suburbs) and Tarrant in Texas (including most of the western half of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" go D if the suburban white vote goes about half D. Texas has some suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Johnson, Fort Bend, and Galveston that could swing enough votes to make the state swing strongly D. Enough? Who knows?

...Something on Texas: the right-wing swing in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s resulted from newcomers then largely from the North and West being more Republican than Texans on the whole. But such people have kept their Northern political cultures while the Republicans grabbed the "Yellow Dog" Democrats who voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. (Texas was close when Bill Clinton was running for President... but remember well that southwestern Arkansas, where Bill Clinton is from, is much like eastern Texas). The Northern political culture has become much more Democratic.

It could be that political trends in Texas lag those in such states as Florida and Virginia. Of course, this could also be a one-time event.

Hillary Clinton obviously wins Ohio before she wins Texas. 

Is it possible for a Republican nominee for President to be callow and crass enough to offend enough Texas voters to cause some a million or so to vote against that nominee? Sure. It is possible. Hillary Clinton cannot win Texas, but Donald Trump can certainly lose it.

As I stated elsewhere Tejas is a high floor/low ceiling state for Democrats, and I suspect that 3rd Party voters here are coming disproportionately from Republican leaning voters.

All being said, the key county is actually none of those listed above...

Harris County (Pop 4 Million with only 1.1 Million voters in '12 is actually ground-zero for any Democratic surge in Texas. 15% of the state population and voters live here, and *IF* Clinton can win here with something like 55-45 (Bipolar Election) it will single-handed subtract oer 100k votes from McCain's '08 950k vote margin.

Additionally, this looks like the year that Fort Bend County (SW Metro Houston) will likely flip, considering Trump's support levels with Asian-American voters.

Montgomery County (Not mentioned above) is absolutely key to any Democratic close race in Texas.... although the population is relatively small it is an overwhelmingly Republican suburban/exurban county that is highly educated and home to many affluent voters living in the Woodlands and frequently working in high-paying jobs at the new Exxon Campus.... this county gave McCain an 80k vote lead, and essentially erases any marginal Dem victory in Harris county and then some....

There are many additional areas in suburban counties in Metro DFW that you referenced, but I actually could envision greater swings in Denton and Collins county than Tarrant County.

Metro Austin--- It would be difficult to see Dems wining Texas without making Williamson County a tossup. This is a suburban highly educated county based around Dell's Round Rock Corp facility, which is a population where one might expect major swings with educated White voters. Obviously there is room to expand in Travis County, to add to Dem margins in one of the larger non DFW/Houston Metro areas in the state.

Metro- San Antonio (S.A)---- Most of the population is located within Bexar county, including a huge number of Latino "Old Tejano" voters, as well as White educated professionals moving to S.A. from elsewhere in the country as part of a booming local economy, and being located "deep in the hear of Texas" is one of the fastest growing cities in the state. I could actually see Bexar county going Dem by 15+ points against the current Republican nominee.

Additionally, for Texas to be competitive, there would need to be a significant defection of Republican support among Anglos in EastTex, that tend to vote more like Whites in Louisiana and Alabama, and tend to identify more as Southerners.

West Texas, has a large and rapidly growing Latino population, and was one of the few regions in the country where there was a net swing towards Obama in '12, and although many of these counties are sparsely populated, a collapse of Tejano Republican support will significantly cut into Trump vote margins in this part of the state.

South Texas--- Considering the large Tejano population we could likely expect significant swings as well, and I suspect Nueces County (Corpus Christi) will flip this year, and we will significant increase in Democratic margins up and down the Rio Grande valley.

Tons of *IFs* and still not seeing Texas move Democratic in '16, but the key variables are collapse of Tejano Republican support combined with dramatic drop-off of Republican support in White Collar suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, as well as a decent chunk of Republicans voting Libertarian in EastTex, WestTex, and in general in more rural parts of the state.





Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 06:32:13 pm
I did some long math, put it on an excel worksheet, and if these polls are accurate or close to accurate, it would show a national result of Clinton 47.8%, Trump 42.6%, and 9.6% undecided. If you readjust Texas to Trump +15 (I used 52/37) and MS to Trump +15 (the same 52/37) then we get a national result of Clinton 47.1%, Trump 43.1%


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: KingSweden on September 06, 2016, 06:36:13 pm
I did some long math, put it on an excel worksheet, and if these polls are accurate or close to accurate, it would show a national result of Clinton 47.8%, Trump 42.6%, and 9.6% undecided. If you readjust Texas to Trump +15 (I used 52/37) and MS to Trump +15 (the same 52/37) then we get a national result of Clinton 47.1%, Trump 43.1%

Which... Corroborates the average. Huh.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on September 06, 2016, 10:53:29 pm
Assuming this is true and an accurate portrayal of the race, then it's good news for Johnson.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: BeTo In DiSaRrAy on September 07, 2016, 12:32:43 am
Assuming this is true and an accurate portrayal of the race, then it's good news for Johnson.

Very good news. 25% in New Mexico? Damn.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: Lok on September 07, 2016, 04:17:58 am
Nate Silver has adjusted all 50 polls by 2 points in Trump's favor.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: jimrtex on September 07, 2016, 10:06:49 am
In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.
Not 12 standard deviations.


Title: Re: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
Post by: LLR on November 09, 2016, 08:55:01 pm
This poll was the closest we ever saw Wisconsin. It was a junk 50-state poll, and it was still Clinton +2. What the hell.