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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 08:50:29 am



Title: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 08:50:29 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states, missing only the District of Columbia and the separately-voting Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska. With such a rich collection of polls, I can begin anew:

Blank map.

()

OK -- not that new!

This is all by the same pollster even with over 5000 people polled in Texas, and some of the results are counter-intuitive. We can ignore prior controversies from hereon and be stuck with new ones (oh, well!). Counter-intuitive data can be right, and change in the way people show valid perception of the world often begins with counter-intuitive data. In a binary choice:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):

Blank map.

()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.   

Numeric data here:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/


A few comments:

1. We no longer have the situation in which anyone has a lead with less than 45% of the vote in any state. I will include no such polling results hereon unless the margin is outside the margin of error (4%).

2. I could say such things as "Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin typically closes late and hard against Republicans in a Presidential year", but I cannot say whether an inverse is true in other states. What you  see happening in polls will be what you get.

3. As always I will reject any polls from trade associations, campaigns, political parties, lobbyists, unions, ethnic associations, or advocacy groups. Until recently I might have done so on the principle that 'beggars can't be choosers', but I am not begging any more. I already have data for all 50 states.

4. I was tempted to expect that the Dakotas might trend D because they are reasonably-well-educated states... but Donald Trump is doing well there.

5. Texas is a gigantic surprise. Of course a 1% lead there by a Democratic nominee is both counter-intuitive and practically insignificant. So basically, don't make a bet that Hillary Clinton will win Texas unless it be a long shot. 

6. The only real chance that I see for a Trump pick up from any Obama state from 2012 is Iowa. Usually Iowa votes much like Wisconsin, but this time it seems to be voting more like Nebraska or South Dakota.     

7. The small margin (by usual standards) for Nebraska suggests that the Second Congressional District will be in play. Maine's Second Congressional District will not be a quick call, but I can reasonably expect that Hillary Clinton will get all four electoral votes from Maine.

8. Mississippi close? What is going on there?

9. Wyoming looks like the best state for Trump, and Maryland looks like the best state for Clinton.

Binary here so far.

   


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 08:54:15 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 08:58:33 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 06, 2016, 09:00:36 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,
Are they C- though? I cant find a rating for them on 538.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 06, 2016, 09:02:42 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,
Yes, Ohio being to the right of Texas and Mississippi over a 24 day polling period looks right


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 09:08:32 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,
Yes, Ohio being to the right of Texas and Mississippi over a 24 day polling period looks right

50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 09:09:23 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.
They have still nothing to do with WaPo.

Quote
And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,
This has nothing to do with WaPo. Ipsos state survey has not same sample as they weekly polls, but is still done by Ipsos. Same here.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 09:11:02 am
50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.
Based on what?

Whatever... You're choosing the polls :)


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 09:13:22 am
We will have more polls. Anything that fits the criterion of a lead with at least 45% for the leader and without an agenda for the pollster can supplant this one.

We have polls for states that had not been polled -- like those in the High Plains and some that hadn't been polled for a very long time -- maybe last year or so. So, yes, we can start with this. Polling samples at least look large.

Example: PPP polled Florida  this weekend.

Does anyone think that PPP, Quinnipiac, Marist, or many of the other active pollsters will shut down?

This is a clean, but practically full slate. Beginning no later than tomorrow I consider these polls obsolete that anything not from a pollster with an agenda will supplant these polls.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 09:16:08 am
The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

Quote
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS

This poll was funded by The Washington Post and is part of SurveyMonkey’s syndicated 2016 Election Tracking service.

::)

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.
They have nothing to do with WaPo still.

Quote
And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

Quote
This sample differs from SurveyMonkey's audience,
This has nothing to do with WaPo. Ipsos state survey has not same sample as they weekly polls, but is still done by Ipsos. Same here.

And Ipsos is an A pollster, so you trust it's results, right?After all A=automatically good and C- = automatically bad.

The truth is that Reuters does have an effect on the Ipsos polling, and the Washington Post did affect this poll when it comes to weighting.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 09:17:21 am
50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.
Based on what?

Whatever... You're choosing the polls :)

For one, it has less of a house effect and has produced more accurate polls this election.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 09:23:17 am
And Ipsos is an A pollster, so you trust it's results, right?After all A=automatically good and C- = automatically bad.

The truth is that Reuters does have an effect on the Ipsos polling, and the Washington Post did affect this poll when it comes to weighting.
Evidence?

I'm not saying Monkey is a bad pollster. But it has nothing to do with WaPo. And pbrower2a wants to do them more reliable by omitting this fact.

For one, it has less of a house effect and has produced more accurate polls this election.
You think? Both have D house effect

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 10:14:47 am
Now -- the tricky one, the three-way or four-way map.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()

I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for 40-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire. Clinton is up by 6 in New Hampshire (small state that makes seeing the numbers tricky).

Numeric data here:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/
.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 10:22:42 am
I went to great effort to set up this map so that we have something to work with. The completeness of the polling does not indicate its reliability, but for many states for which we would otherwise have nothing, we now have something.

Remember: there will be more polls. I am guessing that at this stage, an 8-point lead is practically unsurmountable barring a calamity for a nominee, and cracking 50% is difficult in a three-way race.

There will be new polls to replace some of these. Not every state will have such polls.  


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 10:34:00 am
First new poll by the Baltimore Sun  -- Maryland.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-trump-clinton-poll-20160906-story.html

756 LV, B- poll (according to 538). Four-way only.

Clinton     55%
Trump      26%
Jonhson     6%
Stein         2%

Nothing changes.

Idaho, Dan Jones:

44% Trump
23% Clinton
13% Johnson
  2% Stein
12% Others
  5% Undecided

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1218-Bob%20Bernick,%20Idaho%20Politics%20Weekly%20Contributor

Who are the "others" here?

Missouri, Remington:

47% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

The poll was taken Sept. 1 and Sept. 2. It polled 1,275 likely voters and was commissioned by MoScout.

http://themissouritimes.com/33365/poll-shows-republicans-koster-well/

Consistent with the extant poll.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 11:57:51 pm
Trump - 50%
Clinton - 38%
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 1%

Quote
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by 12 percentage points in a new poll released by a conservative South Carolina political management firm.

In the poll released by First Tuesday Strategies, Trump has 50 percent of South Carolina voters' support, while Clinton has 38 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Jill Stein registered low numbers in the poll of 775 likely voters; Johnson received 3 percent and Stein received 1 percent. Undecided voters made up the remaining 8 percent.

This poll, conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1, comes the same day as a Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll of all 50 states showed Trump ahead by 7 percentage points in South Carolina and 4 percent of voters undecided when presented with all four national candidates. The Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll was conducted online, while First Tuesday Strategies' Palmetto Presidential Poll was conducted via landline phone numbers. Both polls are the first to be conducted in South Carolina independent of a political party since Nov. 2015 and the Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll is the first poll independent of any politically-adjacent group.

http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/politics/poll-trump-up-by-12-points-in-sc/314493283

Why I can't use it.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 07, 2016, 04:32:54 am
This is what I had before -- lots of states in gray. I will make some compromises to gind completeness.


Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) 

()

Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:) 

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20% 







()



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 08, 2016, 08:04:41 am
Old polls compiled by PPP on a group that wishes to get the ninth Justice on the US Supreme Court.

Pennsylvania

47% Clinton (D)
42% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PAToplines1.pdf

New Hampshire

46% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NHToplines1.pdf

Iowa

45% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IAToplines1.pdf

What may be even more telling is that the gambit of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to ensure that Barack Obama does not get his appointee to the Supreme Court ratified no matter what does not help two Republican Senators get re-elected... and a third one, long-time incumbent Chuck Grassley, could be hurt should the Democrats succeed in using that against him.

Now a big and current poll of Florida by PPP for its own sake:

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 5
Stein 1
McMullin 1

Clinton 47
Trump 46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/presidential-race-up-for-grabs-in-florida.html

Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-08-31[/url]

Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 16%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-presidential-voter-opinion-survey/)

This is from a Republican-leaning pollster. No binary choice.




Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Panda Express on September 08, 2016, 08:07:53 am
Why is this topic stickied? This is nonsense sperging.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 08, 2016, 08:22:52 am
Why is this topic stickied? This is nonsense sperging.

It starts a polling scheme practically anew based upon one collection of 50 statewide polls.

I like completeness, and I will make some compromises to get it. As with the weather, if you dislike one poll (unless you have cause for calling a foul), then wait for another, especially in swing states. I was able to start with a map filled in, which answers plenty of questions that we already have... such as whether the High Plains states really can vote for Donald Trump or whether they consider his flamboyance off-putting. The collection answered my question, if not in the way that I wanted to find an answer.

The moderators seem to like my thread. I put much effort into it. When I call fouls I am consistent. But this map is a fresh start. This map does not project anything other than how the November election looks from a point in time.

I like completeness. So do the moderators.   

...in case you think that I believe that Hillary Clinton has a real chance of winning Texas, then that is simply what the most recent poll says. 

If you want your own polling thread, one that 'unskews' polls to suggest that Donald Trump will be the 45th President based on some inexorable dynamics that my snapshot doe snot show, then go ahead.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 08, 2016, 02:49:11 pm
Quinnipiac, FL/OH/NC/PA

Florida
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

Ohio
Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Trump - 41%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 4%

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

North Carolina
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 15%

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376

No0rth Carolina:

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_8_2016_north_carolina_tables_updated.pdf

Trump: 44%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 4%

Donald Trump realistically needs at least three of these states to have a chance of winning the Presidency. The average is less than 1% for Hillary Clinton in North Carolina.

...Trump needs to be up more than this in Ohio to win it in November; the Democrats can expect strong GOTV efforts by unions and minority groups while Republicans have nothing as effective.



Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: olowakandi on September 08, 2016, 05:00:50 pm
Trump is within 2 pts 51/49 election would be a 272-266 race with CO, not OH as the bellweather


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: KingSweden on September 08, 2016, 10:58:31 pm
Trump is within 2 pts 51/49 election would be a 272-266 race with CO, not OH as the bellweather

So is CO part of the freiwal in this scenario?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 09, 2016, 12:49:30 pm
Louisiana -- Anzalone-Liszt, a very Democratic pollster.

Trump 46
Clinton 40
Johnson 3
Stein 0
Undecided 6
Neither 4


https://lapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ALG-Topline-Report.pdf

I'm not using this one.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 09, 2016, 03:29:52 pm
Indiana, Howey Polling, WTHR-TV (NBC-13, Indianapolis)

YouGov, Florida and Ohio

(
Img
)

Republican nominees for president have not won nationally without winning Indiana by at least 10% since...

Ohio:

Clinton 46
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Florida:

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker: Clinton 43, Trump 42

Note the huge drop in support for Gary Johnson in both states.


https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

Marist, four states:



NH:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 36%
Johnson 17%
Stein 3%

LV:

Clinton 39%
Trump 37%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%


AZ:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%



LV:

Trump 40%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

GA:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 40%
Johnson 11%

LV:

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 10%

NV:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

LV:

Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Basically ties. Valid polls, but I really can't use them because leaders have less than 45%.

In related news, Republican incumbents are up significantly in Arizona and Georgia, have a slight edge in the race for the open seat in Nevada, and have taken back the lead for the US Senate in New Hampshire. The Koch strategy seems to be working to keep the GOP in control of the Senate, and perhaps on the way to a veto-proof Senate in 2018.



Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 09, 2016, 09:47:55 pm
A critical demographic shows how it projects in battleground states:


AZ: Clinton 71, Trump 17
CO: Clinton 69, Trump 17
FL: Clinton 63, Trump 27
NC: Clinton 73, Trump 14
NV: Clinton 71, Trump 14
OH: Clinton 61, Trump 22
VA: Clinton 70, Trump 20

400 Latino voters were polled in each state

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/09/the-trump-effect-in-the-swing-states-new-state-polling-from-americans-voice-and-latino-decisions/

In Florida, Cuban-Americans go for Trump -- but Puerto Ricans go heavily for Clinton.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 12, 2016, 12:17:20 pm
California, Los Angeles Times:

Clinton 49
Trump 29
Johnson 11
Stein 6

Clinton 58
Trump 33

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-presidential-poll-20160912-snap-story.html


IVR FOX 2 Detroit – Mitchell Poll of Michigan
Conducted September 6-7, 2016 Survey
(N=940 Likely Voters)

45% Clinton
39% Trump
  7% Johnson
  1% Stein

47% Clinton
42% Trump

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf

Oregon, Portland Tribune (four-way

Toplines:
Clinton 43
Trump 28
Johnson 11
Stein 4

http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/322388-202046-poll-shows-brown-leading-in-governors-race?utm_source=New+Media&utm_medium=twitter


http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10765-
Dan Jones & Associates, SEP. 1-9

Compared to    JUL. 18-AUG. 4:

Trump   39% (+2)
Clinton  24% (-1)
Johnson 13% (-3)
McMullin  9% (----)
Castle     2% (----)
Stein       0% (-1)
Other      6% (-7)

Utah could have the weirdest electoral results in November. Neither Clinton not Trump is a good cultural match for Utah.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-by-6-8-in-virginia.html

PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 42%

878 likely voters surveyed between September 9th and 11th.






Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 14, 2016, 01:15:48 am
Kansas, SUSA:

48% Trump (R)
36% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

No binary data.


Maine, SUSA:


Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 5%

The poll of 779 likely voters statewide was conducted via automated phone calls and web surveys from Sept. 4 through 10. It had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: PikaTROD on September 15, 2016, 07:58:34 pm
Geez, Lungazi really taking it's toll (yes, I said it).
And out of curiosity, this may be a stupid question, but does anyone know who Johnson and Stein are taking votes from?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2016, 09:28:25 pm
Play up Kaine.

The VP has as his greatest Constitutional responsibility being ready in the event of the Unthinkable. His second responsibility is as President of the Senate. Third? He could be a sort of Minister without Portfolio, much as Dick Cheney was (well, let's hope not as devious as Dick Cheney).

Also take some swipes at Mike Pence for his reactionary agenda... anti-feminist and anti-worker, at the least.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2016, 08:26:05 am
Back to this polling thread. Leads that I saw for Donald Trump made me physically ill. Yes, I have a bias -- against someone who advocates political violence, who promotes breaking up families in the name of mass deportation, who vilifies whole ethnic and religious  groups. I have enough personal problems as it is, and hearing someone attack the core decencies of the American experiment in democracy could push me over the edge.

But if I am to show a comeback by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump going into the tank, I must show Trump charging, if only for a week. And by charging I do not mean putting 'surf 'n' turf on a charge card.

Iowa, Monmouth:

45% Trump (R)
37% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/

Nevada, Monmouth:


44% Trump (R) (+3)
42% Clinton (D) (-3)
8% Johnson (L) (+3)


http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/


Michigan, EPIC/MRI
 
(
Img
)


A bunch of polls from Emerson College -- the first batch stank when they first came out, so I am not using this batch.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon  

44% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
  6% Johnson (L)
  2% Stein (G)

Ohio  -- three polls (Monmouth, CNN, and Selzer for Bloomberg -- Trump up 4.67 on average.







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2016, 09:05:06 am
Geez, Lungazi really taking it's toll (yes, I said it).
And out of curiosity, this may be a stupid question, but does anyone know who Johnson and Stein are taking votes from?

Considering what Donald Trump has said about arresting people who disagree with him (just think of it -- I disagree with Donald Trump on about every position and his basic character, I am staunchly anti-drug except on marijuana; if I were to go to jail I might have to share a cell with a doper, and that would be extremely unpleasant for both the doper and me)...

Anyone who can support Donald Trump after implications that he would gut the First Amendment to get his political way is in the literal 'basket of deplorables'.

You believe in the Bill of Rights and the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution as a minimal standard of governmental ethics or you are not a patriotic American. It is that simple. My loyalty is to the Constitution and not to the economic elites of his country.



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2016, 09:31:17 am
We may be seeing some reduction of the extreme polarization between the states that appeared when Barack Obama was President. This may be Donald Trump, who (in view of some of his rash statements) should offend anyone with a three-digit IQ.

(
Img
)

Yes, there are white people with above-average intelligence in some states in which Barack Obama absolutely got crushed in 2008 and 2012. But Hillary Clinton may be getting weakened support from blue-collar workers in the North. Trend or reversion?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2016, 02:08:26 pm
Florida, Monmouth:

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Out of the margin of error, and Donald Trump cannot win without Florida. This pollster showed Trump up 8 in Iowa last week, so such suggests a real comeback.

Elon, North Carolina. PPP will give us a poll in a couple of days, and I trust PPP more than anyone else on North Carolina. The PPP poll will supplant this one. Trump cannot be anywhere close to losing North Carolina to have a real chance of winning.  

https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.html

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 6

North Dakota, DFM Research:

43% Donald Trump (R)
32% Hillary Clinton (D)
8% Gary Johnson (L)
1% Jill Stein (G)

https://de.scribd.com/document/324685567/ND-Pres-DFM-Research-Sept-2016
https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-clinton-north-dakota-neither-50-percent/

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll.

51% Trump
36% Clinton
  6% Johnson

The poll of 515 Oklahoma likely voters was conducted between September 13-15. It carries a margin of error of 4.32 percent. The poll's results were stratified to represent the state's likely voter population.

http://newsok.com/clinton-gains-some-ground-on-trump-in-oklahoma-poll-shows/article/5518562

Oklahoma hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964, and that streak will hold this year. Anyone who believes  otherwise is a fool. This is still rather weak for a Republican in Oklahoma.

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 5%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16.

Well out of the margin of error. Pennsylvania has to be close for Donald Trump to have a reasonable chance of winning. An 8% lead is solid.


Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.







Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: EpicHistory on September 20, 2016, 10:22:02 pm
Why are you still showing Ohio as a strong Democratic lead? There's been six polls of the state since the start of the month, and only one found a Clinton lead with the rest showing Ohio leaning Trump. For reference:

9/1 - Washington Post, R+3
9/7 - Quinnipiac, R+4
9/9 - YouGov, D+7
9/12 - Selzer, R+5
9/12 - CNN, R+5
9/14 - Suffolk, R+3

At the very least, it should be noted as tossup if not lean Trump.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 20, 2016, 11:29:33 pm
Why are you still showing Ohio as a strong Democratic lead? There's been six polls of the state since the start of the month, and only one found a Clinton lead with the rest showing Ohio leaning Trump. For reference:

9/1 - Washington Post, R+3
9/7 - Quinnipiac, R+4
9/9 - YouGov, D+7
9/12 - Selzer, R+5
9/12 - CNN, R+5
9/14 - Suffolk, R+3

At the very least, it should be noted as tossup if not lean Trump.

I missed them in the "recovery" process.

Ohio, three polls:

CNN
Trump 46
Clinton 41
Johnson 8
Stein 2

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf

Suffolk:
https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/776449329217220608

Trump - 42
Clinton - 39
Johnson - 4
Stein - 1

Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll

Trump 48 Clinton 43

Trump 43 Clinton 38 Johnston 10 Stein 3

...The three polls  average to Trump up 4.67.

I will backtrack.  Thank you.

By the way -- with recent national tracking polls with Hillary Clinton with leads around 5^, the next poll of Ohio is likely to show a Clinton lead. 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 22, 2016, 09:23:22 am
Colorado:

540 LV, 9/14-9/18:

Clinton: 44
Trump: 35

Bennett: 45
Glenn: 32

gjsentinel.com/news/articles/university-jumps-into-politics


Who are these guys?

Monmouth, New Hampshire:

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 17 to 20, 2016 with 400 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Clinton 47
Trump 38
Johnson 10
Stein 1


http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_092116/

New Hampshire must be close in a Republican win in recent years. It isn't this time.

Three by Fox News, usually a good pollster.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html

Nevada:

Trump - 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson - 8%

Ohio:

Trump - 42%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%

North Carolina:

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 6%

North Carolina goes to an average. of about 3%. I cannot use the ones for Nevada and Ohio  for binaries.

Virginia, Roanoke University:

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_sept2016

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 8%

Clinton - 51%
Trump - 40%

...Corroborates other polls. No Republican has won the Presidency without Virginia since 1924.

Wisconsin, Marquette University

Clinton:44
Trump:42
2 Way LV

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%
2 Way RV

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 38%
Johnson: 11%
Stein: 2%
4 Way LV

Clinton:39%
Trump:35
Johnson:12%
Stein:3%
4 Way RV

Not usable, lead with less than 45% in a binary election. Wisconsin is looking close now...

Wyoming:


New Poll: Wyoming President by DFM Research on 2016-09-11

Summary: D: 19%, R: 54%, I: 12%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

WY would anyone expect differently?

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 22, 2016, 11:57:56 pm
California,PPIC


50% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
6% Stein (G)
5% Johnson (L)

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article102803037.html

Stein is ahead of Johnson in California! Otherwise, nothing unexpected.

Maryland, Goucher

58% Clinton (D)
25% Trump (R)
6% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/goucher-poll-tracks-races-for-president-senate/41779158

No surprise here.

Colorado:
Clinton: 44%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 2%

Georgia:
Trump: 47%
Clinton: 40%
Johnson: 9%

Iowa:
Trump: 44%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 2%

Virginia:
Clinton: 45%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 1%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2381

No binaries. Colorado becomes an average between Q and the college poll.

Louisiana:

500 LV, Sept. 15-17:

49% Trump
33% Clinton
  8% Johnson
11% Undecided

(Jill Stein wasn't asked)

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/2016_louisiana_senate_race_wan.html

Blowout here.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):

()


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  


I will be away for the weekend, so I may not be posting.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 28, 2016, 10:43:45 am
It may be troublesome, but I may have a fresh cause for a restart.  Monday's debate performance by Hillary Clinton was understated, civil, and topical without going for the kill. Donald Trump's debate performance was simply execrable.

I'm going binary only. If Gary Johnson were to have a chance at a late-season charge, he has yet to show it.  

This is time for a nearly-complete restart. Nearly complete, because old polls for some states may be all that we will ever have. Some states (and the District of Columbia) just don't get polled often. Begin by clearing all results for states except those for which little credible polling exists  and whose electoral character is a lock. If there is any controversy about polling I now show nothing until I see a new poll.

Multitudes who had tuned out Donald Trump for a while have gotten the chance to see him. They had to if they were to see Hillary Clinton in the debate.

States (and DC)  whose prior results look uncontroversial include

AL AK AR CA CT DE DC HI ID IL IN KS KY LA MD MA MT NE (except for the second congressional district) NJ ND NY OK OR RI TN VT WA WV WY

All other states go blank (gray) now.

Even Texas and Utah hold some controversies. Anything close before the debate will not be shown here. Afterward? Of course.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 182
Donald Trump (R)  94


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2016, 01:49:04 am
First one. Mitchell Poll of Michigan. Every four years, Michigan looks within contention until late in the season... only to become not-so-close due to a Democratic get-out-the-vote drive.

You cannot knock a poll that fails to show something yet to happen. A polling thread is not the definitive prediction.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

Clinton 49 (47)
Trump 44 (42)

Clinton 46 (45)
Trump 41 (39)
Johnson 8 (7)
Stein 1 (1)
Undecided 4 [8]

Debate winner
Clinton 51
Trump 25

White
Clinton 44
Trump 48

Black
Clinton 75
Trump 20 Huh

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 198
Donald Trump (R)  94



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2016, 09:18:10 am
PPP, for VoteVets.com .  Five swing states. Binary choices only. Advocacy group, but veterans' interests are hardly to the left on the political spectrum.


Colorado

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 51, Trump 44

Florida

Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1

Clinton 48, Trump 45

North Carolina

Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7

Clinton 49, Trump 45

Pennsylvania

Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 49, Trump 44

Virginia

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1

Clinton 49, Trump 43


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-in-key-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html

Fresh in the minds of people who have seen or have heard reports of the debate, the debate shows signs of having hurt Donald Trump's chance to win in November. Margins may not be huge, but these will be hard to cut into. I can't say that these will hold, but I can now say that a Trump victory is now a long shot that depends upon fundamental change of the electoral reality in America.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 285
Donald Trump (R)  198




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2016, 09:35:35 am
Winthrop College, South Carolina.

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Bad poll for Trump, but due to the timing I can't really use it here. These are post-convention polls, and the pre-convention polls that I show here have no prior controversy and weren't close.

 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on September 30, 2016, 06:58:21 am
California

Survey USA/KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV (4-way) Clinton +26

Clinton 59% (+2)
Trump 33% (+1)
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%
Undecided 3%

817 LV; September 27-28, 2016; MOE +/-2.5%

Link: https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/survey_usa_president_senate_092916.pdf

Florida. Mason-Dixon

Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001

New Hampshire:

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ECU-NH-Memo-Sep29.pdf

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 4%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 40%

This survey was conducted on behalf of End Citizens United, and was weirdly conducted from 9/25-27, right before and after the debate.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with a R+0.2 house effect.

Another New Hampshire poll, this by MassInc:

42% Clinton (D)
35% Trump (R)
13% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)

Clinton leads 59/30 among NH females in the head to head matchup. Overall, probably a too Trump-friendly poll.

Nevada:



Suffolk Poll of Nevada - Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44-38 with GJ 7, others 2, "none of these" 3 (a NV option), 5 und, and 1 refused

Ignore Johnson and Hillary Clinton is over 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 295
Donald Trump (R)  94






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 02, 2016, 03:56:43 am
New Mexico, Albuquerque Journal

Four-way:

35% Clinton
31% Trump
24% Johnson
  2% Stein


Two-way:

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%


https://www.abqjournal.com/857961/clinton-trump-in-tight-race-in-new-mexico.html

Because "will not vote" might as well be ignored altogether, Hillary Clinton would be close to  
getting 50% of the vote anyway.

An obscure poll puts Hillary Clinton out in front only 1% in Nevada. Thus the average of 3.5%.

Colorado, Monmouth:

HRC: 49
DJT: 38
GJ: 7
JS: 3

SENATE:
Bennet: 53
Glenn: 35


https://t.co/s2NLUflhcI

...not a binary. Strong D.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  94







Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 03, 2016, 11:49:10 pm
Bloomberg/Selzer, North Carolina:

H2H: Clinton 46, Trump 45
3-way: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2*

*Stein is not on the ballot in NC

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Donald Trump cannot win without North Carolina and can lose without it. Selzer was really good in 2009 and 2012.

Quinnipiac, four key states of which Trump must win three.

Head to head:

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 44
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 43
OH: Trump 49, Clinton 46
NC: Clinton 49, Trump 46

Delaware, U of Delaware. As if anyone could be surprised.

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/03/clinton-poll-delaware/91462456/

Clinton 51
Trump 30
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Oregon, Hoffman

http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1475532480/HOFFMAN_0916_SURVEY_REPORT_mdltu9.pdf

Clinton 45
Trump 33
Johnson 8
Stein 3

9/29 - 10/1, 605 LV

another poll of North Carolina (Elon):

Personal Message (Online)
   
   
NC-Elon University: Clinton +6
« on: Today at 09:08:39 am »    
Reply with quote Ignore
https://www.elon.edu/E/elon-poll/poll-archive/100416.html
https://www.elon.edu/e/CmsFile/GetFile?FileID=649 (crosstabs work in IE, not in Chrome for me)

7 point swing to her since 9/20

Clinton 45 (43)
Trump 39 (44)
Johnson 9 (6)
Undecided/Other/Refused 7

White
Clinton 39 (35)
Trump 61 (65)

Black
Clinton 98 (98)
Trump 2 (2)

Even if an outlier, it suggests that the Trump campaign is in deep quicksand.

Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University:

Middle Tennessee State University:

50% Trump
38% Clinton
  5% Johnson
  1% Stein

http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres

Republican winning margins in Tennessee since 2000:

2000  4%
2004 14%
2008 15%
2012 23%

The 12% margin looks rather weak now. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  112









Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 05, 2016, 11:12:52 am
https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/

It's a mix of polls and "analysis"

Clinton’s lead:
National +4

MI +5
CO +5
NH +4
WI +3
NC +2
FL +2
PA +2
NV +2
IA +1
OH +1
GA TIE

Incorporating this data as well as I can, and that is for margins under 3 for something that I do not already have.

ME-02: Clinton up 4.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Clinton has gone back to up 4 in the second congressional district of Maine, the only possible electoral vote that Trump has had a real chance of wining to the north and east of the Potomac. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  112










Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 05, 2016, 06:17:47 pm
New Mexico, SurveyUSA:

46% Hillary
33% Trump
14% Johnson
  2% Stein
  2% Others


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fda53900-e6db-46a6-86a5-81e39fd92d32

KTVT, CBS-11, Dallas/Fort Worth, Dixie Strategies


Sept. 29 - Oct. 1 (Last poll Aug. 8-9)
780 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.51%
538 rating: C+

Trump: 44.87% (-1.4)
Clinton: 37.95% (+2.5)
Johnson: 4.23%
Stein: .9%

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/10/05/trump-leads-clinton-gains-in-latest-texas-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-poll/

Not the first time that I have seen polls of Texas showing Donald Trump up by a less-than-solid majority. But this is enough for me to put another 38 electoral votes on the polling map.
    
Two separate, obscure polls cause me to turn Ohio into a tie, so I take off 18 of those electoral votes from a Trump projection.  

Michigan, EPIC-MRI

http://www.wxyz.com/news/exclusive-poll-democrat-hillary-clinton-opens-up-double-digit-michigan-lead-on-gops-donald-trump

4 way:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 3%

No binary. Donald Trump would have to take all of the Johnson vote to win Michigan, and he will not do that. 43% of 87% is very close to 50%.  This is up from a 3% margin in the previous poll by this pollster.

A Trump collapse is evident in Michigan.

Florida, University of Northern Florida

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-967b-de60-a3ff-fe7b11760001

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 3%

This could either be an outlier or evidence of a Trump collapse.

Indiana, WTHR-TV (NBC 13, Indianapolis), Howey Polling.

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-clinton-trump-presidential-race-tightens
Trump 43 (43)
Clinton 38 (36)
Johnson 11 (11)
Undecided 8 (10)

Indiana is about 10% more Republican than the USA as a whole. Trump will likely win Indiana, but this narrow margin suggests that Indiana will be the only state east of the Mississippi and north of either the Ohio or the Potomac that will go for him.





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 34










Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 06, 2016, 06:43:26 pm
Arizona.

Arizona poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights of 718 LV from 9/28-9/30:

Clinton - 42
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-5C5134BA69C80539

Maryland, University of Maryland, Washington Post.

September 27-30

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/larry-hogans-approval-soars-buoyed-by-his-disavowal-of-donald-trump/2016/10/05/3e84b330-88de-11e6-b24f-a7f89eb68887_story.html

Clinton 63%
Trump 27%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Van Hollen 58%
Szeliga 29%
Flowers 5%

This poll also has Hogan at 71% favorable, the 3rd poll in the past month showing his favorability at 70% or more.

SMACKDOWN!

Massachusetts, WNEU

58% Clinton
26% Trump
  7% Johnson
  4% Stein

Quote
The statewide telephone survey of 403 likely voters, conducted September 24, through October 3, found that even with third party candidates accounting for 11 percent of the vote, Clinton holds a lead in Massachusetts comparable to her husband’s margin of victory here in 1996.

http://www1.wne.edu/news/2016/10/z-presidential-poll-tables.pdf

Tennessee, Vanderbilt University.

Trump: 44
Clinton: 33
Johnson: 7
Stein: 1

Among 18-29s Clinton is in serious danger of finishing third, with Trump leading Clinton and Johnson 38-28-22.

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2016/10/06/vupoll/

West Virginia.

Trump — 60%
Clinton — 28%

500 Likely Voters, MOE of 5%. Conducted September 13th to September 17th (so it's a little old).

Not much but the head to head. It seems to be mostly a poll for the more local (statewide) races.

Source





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 45











Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 06, 2016, 07:05:14 pm
Ohio, PPP. The tie-breaker here. Because of the critical nature of Ohio (it was the tipping-point state in 2004) I am dedicating one post to this state. In view of what PPP has to say about Ohio, such is justified.

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
5% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

48% Clinton (D)
47% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/tight-race-for-president-in-ohio.html

Quote
Ohio's emblematic of what we see in much of the country. Voters don't like Hillary Clinton- she has a 42/54 favorability rating. But they like Donald Trump even less, with his favorability coming in at 38/56. To put Trump's unpopularity in the state in perspective, we asked Ohioans whether they have a more favorable opinion of Trump or the University of Michigan- and 'That School Up North' beat out Trump 48/33.

One thing that could help Clinton win Ohio in the end is that voters in the state say they'd rather have four more years of Barack Obama as President than Trump, 51/45. If Clinton can effectively convince voters she would be the continuation of the country's current direction that they prefer to the sharp pivot a Trump presidency would represent, it could put her over the top here.

Barack Obama is appearing for a GOTV drive in Cleveland. This could kill the Trump campaign in Ohio.

Other detail:

Quote
-There's been a lot of discussion this week about whether Donald Trump is a good role model for children, and voters in Ohio pretty emphatically say that he is not. Just 23% consider him to be a good role model, with 64% saying he isn't. It's not surprising that only 3% of Clinton voters think Trump's a good role model, with 96% saying that he isn't. But what's more striking is that even among Trump's own voters, just 46% will say that he's a good role model, to 31% who say he isn't, and 23% who aren't sure.

The Republican incumbent in the Senate will be re-elected.

As for potential for sore-loser attitudes:

Quote
-There continues to be a pervasive feeling among Trump voters that if Hillary Clinton wins the election, it will only be because of voter fraud. 71% of Trump voters say that if Clinton wins it will be because the contest was rigged, to only 13% who grant that it might be because she got the most votes in the election.

My comment: Should Hillary Clinton win Ohio, then she will have won it fair and square despite Ohio having one of the more popular republican governors.

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 335
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 27












Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2016, 01:13:10 am
KOMO-TV (ABC-4, Seattle), Washington:

http://komonews.com/news/local/komo-poll-clinton-has-big-washington-lead-big-unfavorables-inlsee-leads

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 33%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 31%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

This is an old poll, but the state in question seems stable enough in polling that I can put it here without accusations of partisan bias.

South Carolina, Winthrop University.  

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

As for Maine, the only electoral vote reasonably in doubt was ME-02. It's hard to see the rest of Maine 'compensating' for a swing in the vote in ME-02.

Virginia, Hampton University.


http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/HU-Poll%3A-Post--Debate-Surge-Gives-Democrats-Double--Digit-Surge-among-Virginians

Clinton 46
Trump 34
Don't Know/Refused 20

9/28-10/2, 800 LV

Last poll they had back in Aug was Clinton 43, Trump 41

Wisconsin, Gravis for right-wing Breitbart:

48% Hillary
40% Trump
  4% Johnson
  1% Stein



https://de.scribd.com/document/326778927/Wisconsin-Polling-Oct-5

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  141
(in white) ties -- 27


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2016, 11:10:15 am
So what state polls would I most like to see?

Aside from the obvious ties (Arizona and Georgia) and nail-biter (Ohio)

1. Minnesota. We get few polls.

2. Iowa. Has this state gone from a Trump gain to a Clinton hold?
3. Missouri. Let's get definitive.
4. Utah. Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals. Utah has been quirky.
5. Mississippi. Trump is likely to win here, but that Mississippi is closer than it has been since 1980 suggests that racial polarization may be fading. This could bring huge improvements in the state's political climate into one in which people vote out the corrupt and incompetent pols even if that means voting for the other Party and against racial identity.  
6. Wisconsin. There's room for another poll by the state's definitive pollster. If a Trump collapse is underway, then Wisconsin will not be close.
7. Kansas. Like Utah, its quirky.
8. NE-02. It's only one electoral vote, but it's one of the more interesting ones.  

  


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 07, 2016, 05:59:55 pm
Are there any polls to be released before the debate which can help guage the outcome of the weekend news cycle?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 08, 2016, 10:22:55 am
Are there any polls to be released before the debate which can help guage the outcome of the weekend news cycle?

This is from an internal poll from the Senate campaign of Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). She has a huge lead in the Senate race, but in the Presidential race....


http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/07/murkowski-polling-data-shows-clinton-3-points-alaska/
37%-Trump
34%-Clinton
10%-Johnson
2%-Stein

+/-4% MoE
Conducted October 5-6.

Because the lead is with less than 40%  I must consider it a tie. A Republican should be leading by a double-digit margin in Alaska in a near-even nationwide contest. This is before the exposure of some sordid behavior that I am loath to express. Neither will I predict the result of the exposure of this behavior because it is so extreme and has such potential for political ruin.

...all I can say is that Donald Trump is a horrible example for anyone to emulate in his sexuality. Bill Clinton at least seems to have gotten some consent for what he did.

I can say this: if Donald Trump should be elected President, then I fully regret that Barack Obama was re-elected and my participation in the Obama campaign. I would far prefer a second term of Mitt Romney to a first term of Donald Trump.    

.......

Partly before, and partly after the  sordid tale:

Maine, People's Resource Center



CD-02 Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.0

  

This was from before the release of news of the crotch-grabbing episodes and before the second debate. Things could have gotten worse for Donald Trump, as if he needs any bad news from Virginia.  

Virginia, Roanoke

Clinton 45 (+9)
Trump 36
Johnson 7
McMullin 1
Stein 1

H2H
Clinton 51 (+13)
Trump 38

Conducted 10/2-6

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_oct_2016_politics


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 337
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 31



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on October 08, 2016, 03:46:33 pm
Quote
Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals

AHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 08, 2016, 05:12:39 pm
Quote
Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals

AHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.

Mormons are very conservative about S-E-X. Maybe you missed the news about some of The Donald's unselective physicality (so long as the female isn't a 'fat pig'). But that news came after I made that post, anyway. After that disclosure I am ready to double down on a moot hypothetical.  


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 11, 2016, 10:05:09 am
you mean mormon ideals like multiple wives? i figure they are married at the same time and don't file divorces cause of failes boob surgrery.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 11, 2016, 10:19:57 am
you mean mormon ideals like multiple wives? i figure they are married at the same time and don't file divorces cause of failes boob surgrery.

Mormons have accepted monogamy for over a century except for some offshoot cults like the "Fundamentalist Latter-Day Saints".

Mainstream Mormons are conservatives in part because they get liberal results with conservative government. Maybe that is because they don't have to spend so much money on medical costs related to alcoholism and cancerweed use in Utah. If you don't smoke, Utah may be the best bargain for taxes and government spending. The state spends its tax revenues on roads, schools, and parks .  

Mormons may hold Bill Clinton in contempt for his sex life, but Hillary Clinton has at the least proved loyal to a very flawed husband. Donald Trump is about as far from being a model of Mormon family life as there could be short of serial-murderer and rapist Ted Bundy, the latter probably the most hated man in Utah history.




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2016, 01:30:24 am
...............................
Michigan, Glengarriff, Detroit News:

Clinton:42.2%
Trump: 30.6%

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/12/presidential-poll-michigan/91964392/

Not usable despite the huge margin: too many undecided.

Missouri, Monmouth:

Trump 46
Clinton 41
Johnson 5
Stein 2

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_101216/

Nevada, PPP:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an identical 4 point margin to Cortez Masto’s lead, at 47/43. This is the first time we’ve found Clinton and Cortez Masto  (US Senate seat open due to the retirement of Senator Harry Reid) polling on par with each other in our Nevada tracking.

New Hampshire, PPP (for a gun-control group)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/nevada-republicans-abandon-heck-for-abandoning-trump.html

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/786336536300232704

Not sure there's actually a link to the full poll, but this was conducted on behalf of Americans for Responsible Solutions (gun advocacy group):

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 37%

This one follows the report of crotch-grabbing by Donald Trump. It's Utah, typically offering six of the easiest electoral votes for a Republican nominee for President.

Clinton 26
Trump 26
McMullin 22
Johnson 14

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664606/Poll-Trump-falls-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html?pg=all

I don't know this pollster,   but it is consistent with earlier polls that have shown Donald Trump close to being tied with Hillary Clinton with neither breaking 45% of the popular vote.

Donald Trump can probably kiss Arizona good-bye.


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2016, 05:56:56 pm
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. This is one of the most interesting polls, as it shows how a news story can wipe out a campaign or show the collapse of that campaign, even day to day. This can show how a campaign so fails due to the turpitude of the nominee, as if in a scandal of bribery or embezzlement.

Nobody intended to show this, but someone saw this happening and chose to give a four-day chronicle in the form of polls.   What this very good pollster did was brilliant; it leaves someone like me the material for analysis.

I am guessing that the route for going from one side to another, between Candidate A to Candidate B, goes as follows:

Candidate A >> undecided >> Candidate B   

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump  37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
.......................

Among evangelical likely voters in WI:

Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%

Among white LVs without college degrees in WI:

Thu: Trump 48%, Clinton 33%
Fri: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%
Sat+Sun: Clinton 42%, Trump 35%

Fact #1: Wisconsin was close all summer until the disclosure of the crotch-grabbing.
Fact #2: The exposure of the story had swift effect, probably because it involved something with S-E-X-U-A-L overtones.  
Fact #3: Although it might not have had much of an effect on people predisposed to vote Democratic it hit others.
Fact #4: Donald Trump still leads among Christian evangelicals, but his likely vote among them has gone from 64% to 47%.
Fact #5: I have seen scandals erupt, and I have never seen them undone. Primary campaigns collapse. Nominees find their chances of winning drop off completely.
Fact #6: Voters have shown themselves particularly willing to abandon a nominee over sex, bribery, or embezzlement. They may return to the cause that they recently supported -- but only in a different politician who did nothing to betray trust. Someone offering hat Donald trump offered throughout most of 2016 will be challenging for the Presidency as early as 2020. Liberals beware: this person will likely have more control of his libido.

I see no recovery for Donald Trump, who cannot undo the damage from the exposure of his sordid sex life. Having to choose between the Saturday-Sunday polling and the polling for either Thursday or Friday or some composite thereof, I go with Saturday/Sunday. The political equivalent of a train-wreck cannot be undone in a month. The 19% lead looks like the reality for now. I'm going with that.  Newer data is better, and Marquette Law School is a very good  pollster. The 'inconsistency' cannot represent different samples or a change in polling techniques; it reflects that Wisconsin voters turned sharply against Donald Trump  very fast in Wisconsin for something that he cannot dodge, undo, or trivialize.

A vehicle collision can turn a $100K car into a piece of scrap metal in seconds. Putting it back together requires the wrecked object to be reprocessed through a forge capable of melting the metal from a Mercedes-Benz into metal that might become a Dodge Neon.

Just look at the collapse in support among 'evangelical' voters.  Donald Trump has betrayed them, and I see little chance of him winning the once-high levels of support among that he had on Thursday.

But the level of support for Hillary Clinton still falls just short of 50%.  



Wisconsin with Clinton up 19 is consistent with Clinton up 10 in Ohio in another poll.  

Wisconsin went 62-37 in 1964; it has rarely been a Democratic run away. Obama did win it by 16% in 2008, which is about in this range.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2016, 06:49:09 am
Pennsylvania: Bloomberg/Selzer.

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Hillary Clinton went over 51% in Pennsylvania, moving her into the 'solid' category in Pennsylvania.

An earlier Selzer poll (could have been obsolete data?) in Iowa fits the pattern that one would now expect in a much-more rural state, and I accept it because the Pennsylvania demographics what Selzer's Iowa poll shows. Hillary Clinton does quite well in Philadelphia suburbs, but badly in rural areas and among people with less than a college degree. But note the results for suburban Philadelphia. Old suburbs are legitimately urban now in their population. The relatively-new suburbs of Indianapolis, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta still have some rural characteristics.  Whatever was rural (low density, infrastructure still low in maintenance, and mostly home-owners) about comparatively new suburbs is no longer so in greater Philadelphia (or Boston, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco).

Florida. Florida Atlantic University

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/224434-hillary-clinton-6-point-lead-donald-trump-new-florida-poll
http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/download.aspx?id=7274
Clinton 49 (41)
Trump 43 (43)
Undecided 7

Big gain for Hillary Clinton.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling

Post-second debate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-12-16_A.pdf

Clinton 47
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

10/11, 1429 LV

"In the last two FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Polls, Clinton’s lead was only 5%. "

Suffolk University

Clinton 45
Trump 43
Johnson 5
Undecided 5

5 point swing to Clinton since early September.


https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/786596363949572096

Georgia:

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/13/new-poll-donald-trump-johnny-isakson-maintain-strong-leads-in-georgia/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_KEK8-LWmzhOVRSQXFzaGI1Si1sUDBvN0xpeVFhZzRTQTRR/view

Conducted Monday to Tuesday October 11-12.

Trump 48 (47)
Clinton 42 (43)
Johnson 4 (6)
Undecided 6 (3)

White
Trump 68
Clinton 23

Black
Trump 12
Clinton 78

...No way is Donald Trump going to get 12% of the large African-American vote in Georgia. Suspect and not to be used.

 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2016, 11:07:38 pm
Texas. TEGNA/SurveyUSA, reported on WFAA-TV (ABC-8, Dallas/Fort Worth)

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Img
)

Texas is tricky to poll. Hillary Clinton can win this state, but only if she wins over 400 electoral votes. 4% is the margin of error in most states, probably within the margin of error for one of the trickiest states to poll.  Texas will be most of the low-400s in electoral votes for Hillary Clinton should she win this state.  

Texas has many well-educated white suburbanites who went strongly for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. It also has relatively-conservative Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans) who so voted in 2008 and 2012. No state has so many people who can go from Romney (a good match for educated white people) to Trump as Texas in absolute numbers... and hardly a state has such a proportion of voters who can go from Romney to Trump. Texas will have the largest absolute swing from Romney to Clinton and one of the largest proportional swings from Romney to Clinton.

 Texas suburbs are still fairly new and still show some rural characteristics (but that is coming to an end). Donald Trump is an insult to any educated person and to anyone who believes that women have an inherent right to decent treatment by men.  

Florida, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

10/12-10/13, 985 LV, MOE=3.1%

Clinton - 46 (was 45 two weeks ago)
Trump - 42 (43)
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1
Undecided - 6

HEAD-TO-HEAD: Clinton - 49, Trump - 44

SENATE: Rubio - 44, Murphy - 38

Montana, Mason-Dixon

(
Img
)
 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 18, 2016, 12:09:09 am
I have been slow to update my map because of a death in the family. Please understand.

ARIZONA

http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/latest-poll-shows-arizona-is-officially-a-battleground-state
https://www.scribd.com/document/327920049/HG-Survey-Toplines-10-14

Clinton 39
Trump 37
Johnson 8
Stein 3
Someone else 5
Undecided 7
Refused 3

Maricopa County
Clinton +5 (Romney +10)

Pima County
Clinton +24 (Obama +7)

Still comes off as a tie.

California, where Presidential elections are about as exciting as those in Belarus:

October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)

Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)


http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/  

Idaho, Dan Jones. This is an old poll, so it is before the disclosure of the so-called locker-room talk and behavior of Donald Trump.

Trump 40
Clinton 30
Johnson 10
Stein 3

McMullin was not listed as an option!

Quote
Donald Trump holds a 10-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in Idaho, a just-completed Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.

The survey was wrapped up BEFORE the bombshell Trump sexist tape had time to sink in for Idaho voters.

Undoubtedly that tape and the second presidential debate attacks by Trump (and a bit less by Clinton) would have an affect on the presidential race.

IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates also finds that even though Idaho is voting for Trump, more Idahoans believe Clinton will ultimately win the presidency than those who say Trump will be victorious.

I'm not sure that an endorsement by the LDS hierarchy can pare off 10% of the Idaho vote and throw the state's few electoral votes to someone other than Donald Trump... offend Mormon values and lose Mormon votes. See my comments below on Utah. Because Donald Trump is at 40% and up 10 I will charitably put this poll as a Trump lead of the lowest intensity. It's charitable because I usually treat leads with less than 40% as a tie.  

Louisiana, JMC Polling, whatever that is.

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1277-poll-clinton-gaining-on-trump-in-idaho

http://winwithjmc.com/archives/7488
Trump's down from 10 in September, 15 in July.

Trump 45
Clinton 38
Johnson 4
Stein 1
Undecided 12

...Maybe Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a political figure in the South as Barack Obama was.

New Mexico, Zia Poll (whatever that is):

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 36%
Johnson - 12%


Quote
The state-wide survey, conducted on October 11 by ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, showed a big jump for the Clinton campaign. After Sunday’s debate and last week’s release of audio tapes where Trump can be heard making crude and sexual remarks about women, and in spite of the recent release by Wikileaks from Clinton’s hacked email server, Clinton now holds a 10 percent lead over Trump.

When comparing the last NM statewide poll conducted by ZiaPoll on September 24 to the new post-debate results, Clinton increased her lead from 41.8 percent to 46.2 percent while Donald Trump remained at 36 percent. Former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson slipped 4.2 percent and is now polling at 11.8 percent. Undecided votes made up 4.4 percent and 1.7 percent of voters said they would vote for Jill Stein. The majority of Clinton’s gains came at the expense of Gary Johnson - perhaps voters who jumped from Clinton early in the season, but who now feel that their vote for Johnson could help put Trump in office.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161017_NM.pdf

Gary Johnson had some chance of spoiling the chance of Hillary Clinton to win New Mexico.  That apparently is not going to happen.

Utah, Rasmussen:

Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/

...In view of Donald Trump acting contrary to just about every Mormon value values that non-Mormons are wise to practice in Utah and generally do. I think that McMullin has a very good chance of winning Utah. He has a chance to peel off support from Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnson  while Donald Trump loses all credibility. Republicans can expect to win every other statewide race and perhaps every Congressional seat...

Here's my prediction on Utah: McMullin will win, and people are going to discuss the Presidential election in Utah in 2016 for years as an example of how to lose despite the usually-gigantic partisan edge.   We are going to see a green or yellow color for Utah on Atlas maps, and it won't be for some racist secessionist from one of the major Parties. You see it here first even with Donald Trump with a 1% lead that I see no cause for him to hold.

Still this comes off as a tie because nobody has 40% of the polling.  
 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 19, 2016, 04:10:26 am
Kansas, SurveyUSA




View Profile Personal Message (Offline)
   
   
KS: KSN News/SUSA- Trump +11

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 7
Stein 2

http://ksn.com/2016/10/18/ksn-news-poll-continues-to-show-strong-support-for-trump-in-kansas/


Weak for a Republican.

Massachusetts, WBUR

Clinton 54%
Trump 28%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/10/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-MA-General-2-Pres-5-AM-1.pdf
 

Ho-hum.

Nevada, Monmouth

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_101816/


Clinton 47
Trump 40
Johnson 7

Now on the fringe of competitiveness.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 6%

New York, Siena
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/three-weeks-out-clinton-boosts-lead-over-trump-to-24-points-54-30-percent-u

Clinton - 54
Trump - 30
Johnson - 5
Stein - 4

Yawn!

North Carolina, SurveyUSA

Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%

Slight Clinton leads seem to becoming the norm in North Carolina.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert's College.

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 39%
Stein - 3%
Johnson - 1%

http://www.nbc26.com/news/feingold-leads-johnson-in-st-norbert-college-poll

On the borderline of a Clinton blowout.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 19, 2016, 07:15:07 pm
Another angle -- probability of winning (before Debate #3)

()

Chance of winning (saturation)

pct          sat
99%+       9
95-98.9     7
90-95       5
75-90       4
65-75       3
50-65       2

Utah (my guess) 55% McMullen


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 20, 2016, 11:13:52 am
Illinois.

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-ormsby/poll-clinton-thumping-tru_b_12579014.html

No surprise here.

Indiana, WISH-TV

Trump 43, Clinton 37, Johnson 9

http://wishtv.com/2016/10/20/hoosier-survey-trump-leads-in-indiana-pence-helps/


Maine:

Clinton 49%
Trump 39

Clinton 42%   
Trump 36   
Johnson 9
Stein    4

ME-02
Clinton 38%
Trump 37
Johnson 11
Stein 4

Clinton 46%
Trump 39

http://mprc.me/research/1016_presidential2.pdf

Michigan. Mitchell Poll.

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/212560344-story

10/18, 1102 LV, MOE 3%

Clinton - 51
Trump - 38
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2

Poll from last week had Clinton +10

H2H: Clinton - 53, Trump - 41

Trump collapse!

Ohio, Suffolk. Its last poll showed a lead for Trump.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php

Clinton 45 (39)
Trump 45 (42)
Johnson 2
Stein 1

Tennessee, I-Citizen. Narrow lead for Trump by recent standards for Republicans,,, and before the third debate.

Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

October 14-17

https://icitizen.com/insights/tennessee-poll-results-october-2016-election/


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 21, 2016, 01:21:00 pm
Florida. Almost binary, and Hillary Clinton is up 4 this late and nearly at 50%. The jaws of an alligator are closing on any chance of Donald Trump winning this election.

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

Clinton 49
Trump 45
Johnson 3
Stein 2

Sooner Poll, Oklahoma:

Trump 60%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 4%

...Oklahoma is not O-K in its Presidential politics. It is deplorable.

This weekend I notice that the polling looks very stable where it is taken.  Most minds seem set... but I have yet to see any post-Debate polling.   


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55




Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 24, 2016, 12:12:23 pm
PPP. North Carolina

HRC - 47 (+3)
Trump - 44
Gary Johnson - 3

Head to Head :-

HRC - 49 (+3)
Trump - 46

Among Early Voters

HRC - 63 (+26)
Trump - 37

Governor's race

Copper - 46 (+2)
McCrory - 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_102416.pdf

Another North Carolina poll?

Some early votes are in, and Hillary Clinton is nuking Donald Trump  63-37 while Libertarian Gary Johnson is getting less than 1/2 percent of the vote. We're talking about people who have voted. Early voters are an  unrepresentative sample, but still...


The Trump campaign is kaputt without North Carolina. 

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



[/quote]


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 24, 2016, 05:19:57 pm
Arkansas, Talk Business, Hendrix College

Q: If the election for President were today, which candidate would you support?

32.5% Democrat Hillary Clinton
56% Republican Donald J. Trump
3.5% Libertarian Gary Johnson
2% Green Party candidate Jill Stein
1% Other
5% Undecided

...The Republican Senator running for re-election is up by a similar margin over his opponent.

Bill who? Arkansas must be forgetting something.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-24-16.pdf

(Clinton 49% - Trump 41%- Johnson 3% - Stein 1%)

Over.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon for the Star-Tribune.

Clinton 47%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
McMullin 1%

Poll was conducted Oct. 20-22.

Did you really have any question?

Nevada, Las Vegas Review-Journal, the one major daily in America (Sheldon Adelson owns it) to endorse Donald Trump.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/election-2016/rj-poll-shows-clinton-pulling-away-trump-nevada

Clinton - 48
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Other/Unsure - 5

Nevada is now a bad bet for Donald Trump, Sheldon Adelson notwithstanding.

Nevada, Rasmussen:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/ktnvrasmussen-poll-clinton-pulls-ahead-of-trump-in-nevada-as-early-voting-starts

Clinton - 46
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Other/Unsure - 6

10/20-10/22, 826 LV, 3.5% MOE

Swing of 7 pts in margin from last poll in mid-Sept, which had Trump +3.

Does anyone have any residual doubt on how Nevada will vote on November 8?

Washington (state), Elway poll

Clinton 48 -- Trump 31.



 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 25, 2016, 12:47:35 am
Now a poll for a state from which I didn't expect to see a poll:

South Dakota, Mason-Dixon for KELO-TV (Sioux Falls):

Trump 44, Clinton 37.

Applying the rules as rigidly as I usually do, South Dakota ends up in a pale blue shade.

Trump collapse!

Wyoming, University thereof:

Trump 58%
Clinton 20%
Johnson 9%
Stein 2%

Arizona, Monmouth:

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  161
(in white) ties -- 44





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: NOVA Green on October 29, 2016, 07:29:59 pm
Hey--- just checking in to say hello, since you haven't posted any updates for awhile.

Hoping all is well with you and your family, and missing your updated maps. :)


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 12:41:00 pm
He'll be back, when Dems have a good news (the recent news from NC were really good for Hillary though)

Back to this polling thread. Leads that I saw for Donald Trump made me physically ill. Yes, I have a bias -- against someone who advocates political violence, who promotes breaking up families in the name of mass deportation, who vilifies whole ethnic and religious  groups. I have enough personal problems as it is, and hearing someone attack the core decencies of the American experiment in democracy could push me over the edge.

But if I am to show a comeback by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump going into the tank, I must show Trump charging, if only for a week. And by charging I do not mean putting 'surf 'n' turf on a charge card.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on October 30, 2016, 05:05:42 pm
Alaska, Craciun Research. This was apparently Lisa Murkowski's internal pollster in 2014.

Oct. 21-26

Clinton 47
Trump 43
Johnson 7
Stein 3

http://www.craciunresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Press-Release_Presidential-Election-2016_Alaska-Survey_Craciun-Research-_102916.pdf

Florida, two polls, and they cancel as a tie (PPP and Siena); one (Selzer for Bloomberg) is a tie.

 
Minnesota, KSTP-TV (ABC-5, Twin Cities):

Clinton 49
Trump 39
Johnson 5
Stein 2

MOE 3.9%

Same poll last month showed Clinton+7 (46-39).

North Carolina (NBC)

FL: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (4-way)
Tied at 46 (2-way)

NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

Utah, Dan Jones, Salt Lake Tribune.

Trump 32%
McMullin 30%
Clinton 24%
Write-in/Don't Know 8%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

Favorability ratings:

Trump: 29-70
Clinton: 24-75

Also interesting, 68% say Trump's videos do not effect their vote, 8% say it makes them more likely to vote for Clinton, 2% for Johnson, 0% for Trump and 18% for McMullin.

Poll has not been released yet, not sure when it will.

Conducted October 20-27.

Another near-tie.


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):



()

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 291
Donald Trump (R)  161
(in white) ties -- 70






Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2016, 12:33:48 pm
Why is Georgia tied?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: EpicHistory on November 01, 2016, 05:48:58 pm
Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Colorado need to be as tossup. Move Georgia back into likely Republican, Texas into solid Republican as well, and Florida into lean Republican.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: NOVA Green on November 01, 2016, 05:55:44 pm
Good to see you back man.... wishing the best for you and your family. :)


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 01, 2016, 06:51:47 pm
Why is Georgia tied?


Trump had a small lead with less than 45% of the vote.   That is to prevent the situation that I saw in 2008 when I saw Obama up 27-36 in Tennessee (he got a little over 37% of the vote) or Montana or the Dakotas with 44-42 leads (he ended up with something like 46% of the vote and lost).

I saw lots of 44-32 leads early, and most of those have become something like 52-42 or 49-43. As a rule one builds upon such leads  to get near or over 50% or one loses.

There are plenty of crappy pollsters out there. We are also getting some November surprises... The server link to Russia looks very, very bad.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: J. J. on November 02, 2016, 05:06:38 pm
I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: King on November 02, 2016, 05:25:50 pm
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 02, 2016, 05:26:45 pm
But what will the price of gold be by election day? Could be decisive imo.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Crumpets on November 02, 2016, 05:28:13 pm
I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.



NC at solid R?!


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Snek! on November 02, 2016, 05:31:24 pm
I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.



NC at solid R?!
This is Trumps best case scenario. Hillary is up mid single digits in VA,CO,PA,MI, and WI. Let's see where NH is. We need to keep NC/FL close though.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 05:32:36 pm
I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go.  

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.




NC at solid R?!
This is Trumps best case scenario. Hillary is up mid single digits in VA,CO,PA,MI, and WI. Let's see where NH is. We need to keep NC/FL close though.


Absurd map. Please let PB continue his thread. You can go post your fantasy maps in the appropriate threads.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Edu on November 02, 2016, 06:15:04 pm
Good to see that after all these years J. J. is still terrible at predicting elections.

Great consistency from the great MENSA member


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Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 02, 2016, 07:01:27 pm
There are so many polls coming in that I can't keep track of them all. I so expect this in the last two weeks of the electoral season.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 03, 2016, 11:59:34 am
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Indeed,

(1) Ronald Reagan challenged an undeniably-failed incumbent President. Except for a difference in the issues of the time, Reagan 1980 has an eerie resemblance to FDR in 1932.

Barack Obama has solid approval ratings, so this race involves a challenger against someone closely connected to the promises and policies of an incumbent President whom Americans hold in high regard.

The analogy is thus to either 1960, 1988, or 2000. 1960 was a very close loss for the Party with the incumbent President. 1988 was a decisive win for the Party with the incumbent President.

(2)  Ronald Reagan won the  upscale, socially-liberal "Rockefeller Republicans" then a big part of the Republican Party. Although Nelson Rockefeller has been gone for over twenty years his constituency remains -- but it has largely drifted Democratic. Donald trump is not getting that vote. 

(3) Ronald Reagan also did a good job of assuaging possible fears of ethnic and religious minorities. Donald Trump has given those ethnic and religious minorities much to fear while stirring up white enmity toward middle-class non-whites and non-Christians.

(4) Ronald Reagan  may not have been the ideal Christian (a divorcee) in his personal life, but Donald Trump's behavior is grossly un-Christian. He's struggling in Utah solely because his personal life is a travesty of Mormon family values not far from mine. By a travesty of Christian values I do not mean celebrating Passover, facing Mecca when praying, or keeping an image of Ganesha. If one grabs crotches of women or walks into the changing room of people of the other gender, then one's expressions of religious identity are irrelevant. I can vote for people of faith -- any faith -- so long as they live up to the standards that they preach. 

(5) The closest analogue as President that I see for Barack Obama is Dwight Eisenhower in temperament and level of achievement. The ideal President to follow a cautious President with a scrupulous respect for legal formalities and precedent (in that Obama is much like Ike) would be a new John F. Kennedy. I see nothing in Hillary Clinton or in Donald Trump that suggests a new John F. Kennedy.

The first two terms of FDR? That may be what he wanted to be as president, but the Tea Party "revolution" made that impossible. But Eisenhower is still considered an above-average President. More blatantly intellectual than Eisenhower, Obama has most media on his side as Eisenhower didn't...

He is certainly  not the New Herbert Hoover and he is like Jimmy Carter only in his personal life and avoidance of scandals. He isn't Dubya, either.

(6) Going into 2016, Republicans had the potential to exploit Presidential fatigue: after eight years of even an above-average President, people want something very different. Indeed, Donald Trump could hardly be more different from Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton ends up defending the policies and achievements of Barack Obama, which is usually good for a loss. People eventually want change, and Donald Trump is drastic change.

So what can go wrong?

Caution is a virtue, and Donald Trump is scary. Barack Obama is a stickler for precedent and formality, and Donald Trump is clearly not so. Donald Trump has the crankiest foreign policy since George McGovern. (I talk about Hillary Clinton's foreign policy, and I end up defending Reagan and the elder Bush). Donald Trump has a personal life so rakish as to be indefensible. One votes for him despite his behavior, and not because of it. He has no experience in politics or governmental administration, so he makes huge blunders as a campaigner. Above all, Donald Trump has created large blocks of people who distrust him whose demographics ordinarily suggest that they might be swing voters for Republicans. 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 02:50:26 pm
Why is NH not tied?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2016, 11:03:55 am
I'm not going to do more maps. There is a near plethora of polls...

by PPP, and Donald Trump will not win nationally with these results:

Missouri: Trump +11
Trump - 52%
Clinton - 41%

Nevada: Clinton +3
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 45%

New Hampshire: Clinton +5
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

North Carolina: Clinton +2
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 47%

Pennsylvania Clinton +4
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 44%

Wisconsin: Clinton +7
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Polls conducted for Center for American Progress, a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143903/NationalMemo112-Final.pdf


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2016, 11:06:19 am
Marist for NBC. Very weak results for Trump in states that he must win decisively to have a real chance nationwide:

Arizona:

Trump 45%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Georgia:

Trump 45%
Clinton 44%
Johnson 8%

Texas:

Trump 49%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

All were conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2016, 01:33:17 pm
My next map will probably be some comparison of the completed 2016 Presidential election to that of some other Presidential election.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2016, 03:11:51 pm
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/11/clinton-leads-by-5-in-firewall-states.html

Virginia:

Clinton 48
Trump 43
Johnson 4
Stein 1
McMullin 1

Michigan:

Clinton 46
Trump 41
Johnson 6
Stein 2

Colorado:

Clinton 48
Trump 43
Johnson 4
Stein 2
McMullin 1

FYI: These are the final PPP public polls this cycle.

Game over.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: dirks on November 05, 2016, 04:59:41 pm
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

What is happening right now is the closest we've seen to 1980. 2004...2012. Those races hardened at a point and there was very little exciting movement in the late hours. 84 was a bore. so was 88. This is a lot of fun


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2016, 05:17:03 pm
According to a "news" story on  GOP Pravda (a/k/a FoX News), Donald Trump has momentum on his side as the election providentially closes up.  

Meanwhile CNN has a poll showing Hillary Clinton up 2 in Florida.



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: olowakandi on November 05, 2016, 05:37:43 pm
I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.




Clinton will lose VA before she loses NH.  NH is a blue state as well as NV

Clinton 272
Trump 266
not including VA of course


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2016, 08:37:49 pm
California, Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner


Clinton 54%
Trump 30%
Johnson 4%
Stein 3%

Good pollster, but nearly a one-Party state. Good for calibrating sure-win states for Clinton.
Georgia:

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters


Iowa, Selzer, Des Moines Register

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

Poll conducted Nov 1-4.

At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.

Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.

Among other groups, meanwhile, Clinton’s lead is significantly lower than the advantage she enjoys nationally. She holds just a 3-point lead among women, for example, a demographic Democrats have been banking on to reject Trump and lift Clinton and one that she leads by a dozen or more points in national polls.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90

New Mexico -- Albuquerque Journal:

https://www.abqjournal.com/883092/clinton-still-ahead-in-new-mexico.html

Clinton 45% (+10)
Trump 40% (+9)
Johnson 11% (-13)
Stein 3% (+1)

New York (as if there should be any surprise, but this is good for calibration of sure-win states for Hillary Clinton:

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/486bf15f-bd24-43fa-988f-79ba63efc430.pdf

NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4

Compared to    OCT. 13-17  

Clinton    51 (-3)
Trump    34  (+4)
Johnson   5
Stein        2

Ohio, Columbus Dispatch:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

The Ohio poll gives me enough data for a state-by-state prediction.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 06, 2016, 08:59:42 am
The state that will give the weirdest of all possible results, Utah:

https://www.scribd.com/document/330023731/UTAH-Final

Trump - 35
Clinton - 29
McMullin - 24
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 06, 2016, 09:20:51 am
My prediction, Sunday morning before Election Day, with only one allowable tie:

Hillary Clinton (D)  vs. Donald Trump (R)


()

Tie -- white

solid -- 10% or more, saturation 7
firm -- 5 to 9.99%, saturation 5
shaky -- less than 5% , saturation 2  



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: Ljube on November 07, 2016, 03:35:59 pm
Michigan firm D?


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 07, 2016, 03:40:22 pm
Michigan firm D?


With Trump talking on the news, recommending taking jobs out of MI, sure.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2016, 08:38:11 pm
Here's another.

Clinton 42.9
Trump 39.0
Johnson 4.7
Stein 0.9

84,292 LV interviewed

50 state roundup:

Alabama: Trump +21
Alaska: Trump +0.3 (with Johnson at 12)
Arizona: Trump +8.5
Arkansas: Trump +17.5
California: Clinton +21.4
Colorado: Clinton +5.2 (Johnson at 6)
Connecticut: Clinton +10.8
Delaware: Clinton +19.1
DC: Clinton +73
Florida: Clinton +1.1
Georgia: Trump +4.9
Hawaii: Clinton +26.3
Idaho: Trump +19.5
Illinois: Clinton +15.2
Indiana: Trump +7.2
Iowa: Clinton +3.1
Kansas: Trump +15.9
Kentucky: Trump +20
Louisiana: Trump +11.4
Maine: Clinton +4.7-----Johnson at 8.5, Stein at 3.8
Maryland: Clinton +25.8
Massachusetts: Clinton +22.7
Michigan: Clinton +6
Minnesota: Clinton +6.4
Mississippi: Trump +6
Missouri: Trump +7.5
Montana: Trump +12.4
Nebraska: Trump +12.6
Nevada: Clinton +1.6
New Hampshire: Clinton +8.6
New Jersey: Clinton +12
New Mexico: Clinton +7.1 (Johnson at 11.4)
New York: Clinton +21.3
North Carolina: Clinton +2.2
North Dakota: Trump +12.5
Ohio: Clinton +1.7
Oklahoma: Trump +26.6
Oregon: Clinton +7.8
Pennsylvania: Clinton +1.5
Rhode Island: Clinton +17.8
South Carolina: Trump +11
South Dakota: Trump +18.3
Tennessee: Trump +14.6
Texas: Trump +7.9
Utah: Trump +9.1 (Trump 33, Clinton 24)
Vermont: Clinton +16 (Stein at 5)
Virginia: Clinton +9.1
Washington: Clinton +15.7
West Virginia: Trump +28.3
Wisconsin: Clinton +4.5
Wyoming: Trump +32.8

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20161107_50_1.pdf



Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2016, 08:55:16 pm
Odd set of polls, not so much for the results as they for for refuting some recent outlier polls that seemed way out of line. Gravis has been sort of OK without Breitbart, but its polls for Breitbart have been strongly for Trump.

These fellows might prefer to be accurate at the end so that they can't be seen as glaringly wrong after the election.

Game over. Cue the "death" music for Pac-Man or the, the 'goat' motif from Let's Make a Deal, or the 'loser' riff on The Price Is Right.

I intend to close this thread in a couple of hours. Please comment now. Polls are forecasts. Tomorrow will feature the most important election in a long time in America.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2016, 11:37:00 pm
Locked with this message. The time for prophesy, forecast, and prediction come to an end tonight.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 07, 2016, 11:50:25 pm
Michigan firm D?


"Firm" does not mean "solid".


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: J. J. on November 08, 2016, 05:57:00 pm
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Until the next realignment.  I was talking about 1932 in 1980. 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: King on November 08, 2016, 06:00:04 pm
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Until the next realignment.  I was talking about 1932 in 1980. 

lol Virginia is a safe D state and the First Lady of Arkansas is losing it by 20 points. there's been a realignment.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: J. J. on November 08, 2016, 06:11:02 pm
Ah, King, here is my map.

I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 

()

I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269


Where do you get the idea that I have Virginia even as a tossup?  I would be more stunned at Trump winning PA or MN than I would with him winning VA. 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2016, 04:10:13 am
If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Until the next realignment.  I was talking about 1932 in 1980. 

lol Virginia is a safe D state and the First Lady of Arkansas is losing it by 20 points. there's been a realignment.

Can you say "realignment?"  Good, I knew you could. 


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: dalekmasterkilledme on November 10, 2016, 09:33:25 am
TRUMP MAY NOT BECOME PRESIDENT!! Search "Trump may not become president Nakedtruth" in youtube and click in the first video.


Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: pbrower2a on November 10, 2016, 07:39:56 pm
We are going to discover the difference between a republic and a democracy. Chile under Agosto Pinochet was unambiguously a republic and unambiguously a tyranny.

Democracy died in America on Tuesday. There may never be a free and fair election that the Republicans will ever lose.





Title: Re: Home-stretch polling
Post by: LLR on November 10, 2016, 08:10:10 pm
We are going to discover the difference between a republic and a democracy. Chile under Agosto Pinochet was unambiguously a republic and unambiguously a tyranny.

Democracy died in America on Tuesday. There may never be a free and fair election that the Republicans will ever lose.


Classic pbrower #analysis at its finest. The national polls were off by 2 points, jeez.