|
Title: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: MT Treasurer on September 08, 2016, 08:22:53 AM New Poll: Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-08-31 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820160831120)
Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 16%, U: 7% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-presidential-voter-opinion-survey/) Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 08, 2016, 08:26:37 AM Favorables:
Clinton 40/56 (-16) Trump 34/62 (-28) This pollster has a C rating and R+0.6 bias, according to 538. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 09:58:23 AM So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2? If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 10:04:12 AM So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2? If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 10:06:12 AM Hmmm... Magellan is a Republican pollster and I believe this is client work? I'm surprised they would release this. Are they trying to tell Trump to stop wasting money in CO? You have to stop to pretend that R-establishment wants Trump to win. I mean... Really! Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Xing on September 08, 2016, 10:42:55 AM Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 10:53:45 AM Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Ebsy on September 08, 2016, 12:53:58 PM Magellan is a pretty bad pollster, but whatever.
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Maxwell on September 08, 2016, 12:56:50 PM Trump ain't winnin Colorado.
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 01:02:00 PM What will be really interesting in Colorado is what will happen with 69,70, and 100.
69 is a universal Medicare bill. It's a lightning rod. No way it passes. Might actually be good to use in 2018 or 2020 if Trump wins and isn't popular. Could be good in 2022 during a six-year itch. 70- Minimum wage. Its up 15 points. Takes MW to $12 an hour by 2020. Its on the edge of reasonable. 100- Assisted suicide. There's no polling on this one. I imagine if people are OK with pot and abortion, they are OK with this. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Senator-elect Spark on September 08, 2016, 02:10:29 PM Trump competitive in CO
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 08, 2016, 03:08:03 PM Trump competitive in CO When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to. The RCP average has him down 9.7. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 03:38:47 PM Trump competitive in CO When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to. The RCP average has him down 9.7. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:46:20 PM Trump competitive in CO When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to. The RCP average has him down 9.7. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: NOVA Green on September 08, 2016, 03:48:23 PM This is a "C" rated pollster with no real history this election season, so would definitely take with a giant Tablespoon of salt and consider more as an internal poll than anything else.
Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 04:44:58 PM Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious :'( Nate Silver agrees Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-swing-states-are-tightening-too/) Quote My position is that a decline in Clinton’s national polls necessarily means that she’s declined in the states. There’s just no way around this; as we learned on Schoolhouse Rock, the United States is composed of 50 states and the District of Columbia. Perhaps it’s possible Clinton’s declined more in noncompetitive states than competitive ones — for instance, if Trump’s gains have mostly come from Republicans, widening his margins in red states but less in purple states. But that sort of conclusion is usually wishful thinking. If anything, swing states tend to be slightly more “elastic” than the national average, meaning that if Trump gains about 5 percentage points nationally, he might gain a bit more than that in states such as New Hampshire, where there are a lot of swing voters. Title: Re: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 06:33:18 PM Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious :'( Nate Silver agrees Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-swing-states-are-tightening-too/) Quote My position is that a decline in Clinton’s national polls necessarily means that she’s declined in the states. There’s just no way around this; as we learned on Schoolhouse Rock, the United States is composed of 50 states and the District of Columbia. Perhaps it’s possible Clinton’s declined more in noncompetitive states than competitive ones — for instance, if Trump’s gains have mostly come from Republicans, widening his margins in red states but less in purple states. But that sort of conclusion is usually wishful thinking. If anything, swing states tend to be slightly more “elastic” than the national average, meaning that if Trump gains about 5 percentage points nationally, he might gain a bit more than that in states such as New Hampshire, where there are a lot of swing voters. That doesn't mean its not tightening, it just means the rust is moving to the right of where Democrats are expanding. |