Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: The Other Castro on September 08, 2016, 01:38:29 PM



Title: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: The Other Castro on September 08, 2016, 01:38:29 PM
Florida
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

Ohio
Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Trump - 41%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 4%

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

North Carolina
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 15%

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 08, 2016, 01:40:53 PM
Yep, I've had an awful feeling about NC for awhile. Trump will lose it. :/


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 08, 2016, 01:41:00 PM
The 2-way/4-way difference in Ohio is striking.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Gass3268 on September 08, 2016, 01:41:04 PM
Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 08, 2016, 01:41:09 PM
Seems in line with Clinton +3/4 nationally.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Maxwell on September 08, 2016, 01:41:15 PM
literally wat @ NC results.

Pennsylvania makes sense as does Florida.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2016, 01:41:23 PM
Great results!!


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Tender Branson on September 08, 2016, 01:41:38 PM
Looks about right.

NC is more of a tossup though.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 08, 2016, 01:41:57 PM
Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.

OH is still quite close, no reason to re-adjust strategy, especially given division in ground games.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 08, 2016, 01:43:39 PM
If you flipped Ohio and North Carolina then they would be perfectly believable results.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Spark on September 08, 2016, 01:44:06 PM
Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Xing on September 08, 2016, 01:44:25 PM
Hard to imagine NC ending up to the left of OH and FL, but these numbers are fairly believable, overall.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: The Other Castro on September 08, 2016, 01:44:56 PM
If you flipped Ohio and North Carolina then they would be perfectly believable results.

Given the polling situation we've seen for Blacks and College Whites, these seem perfectly believable.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Spark on September 08, 2016, 01:45:18 PM
Will Johnson's numbers continue to remain high?


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Gass3268 on September 08, 2016, 01:46:26 PM
Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.

OH is still quite close, no reason to re-adjust strategy, especially given division in ground games.

Oh I totally agree, my statement was if you had to make a clear choice or an emphasis.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: dspNY on September 08, 2016, 01:47:33 PM
After the rough time Hillary's had over the past two weeks, these results still mean a very likely President Hillary because it can get a lot better for her and not much worse


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Eraserhead on September 08, 2016, 01:49:09 PM
The 2-way/4-way difference in Ohio is striking.

It's all within the MOE, so not particularly.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Virginiá on September 08, 2016, 01:50:57 PM
Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Spark on September 08, 2016, 02:00:13 PM
Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket. And also based on historical trends, before Obama in 2008, the last Democrat to win there was Carter. Clinton does not energize voters as much as Obama or Trump.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 02:01:34 PM
As long as Clinton can hold Pennsylvania in the east, she should be OK as long as North Carolina and Florida is iffy at best for Trump.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: windjammer on September 08, 2016, 02:04:17 PM
Dear god these results are garbage, NC will be to the right of Florida.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Mallow on September 08, 2016, 02:04:25 PM
As long as Clinton can hold Pennsylvania in the east, she should be OK as long as North Carolina and Florida is iffy at best for Trump.

It's tough to imagine a realistic map in which Trump wins nationally, but loses PA (and VA). The only one I can think of involves the unlikely sweep of NC, IA, OH, FL, NV, and NH (with a bonus ME2 if a tie-breaker is necessary)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 08, 2016, 02:05:00 PM
Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.

A) No reason to assume African American turnout will drop all that much.
B) White college voters are shifting towards Clinton, Trump already maxed out here with Romneys numbers among non-college whites
C) Ground game, ground game, ground game
4) HB2 and the general state of the NC GOP.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 08, 2016, 02:05:56 PM
Quite the education gap in North Carolina…

whites w/ college degree:
Trump 42%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 16%

whites without college degree:
Trump 62%
Clinton 18%
Johnson 16%

Also, Trump is in third place among non-whites in both NC and OH….

North Carolina non-whites:
Clinton 71%
Johnson 14%
Trump 10%

Ohio non-whites:
Clinton 62%
Johnson 10%
Stein 9%
Trump 9%


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on September 08, 2016, 02:07:21 PM
These polls should destroy the entire "Johnson is a spoiler who will hand the election to Clinton" myth.  He is taking most of his support from #NeverTrump conservatives who would most likely vote for Hillary in a two-way race.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Seriously? on September 08, 2016, 02:08:11 PM
The 2-way/4-way difference in Ohio is striking.
Eh. All MOE stuff, including the NC result.

Fundamentally, where the race is right now, this looks about right.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Spark on September 08, 2016, 02:10:01 PM
Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.

A) No reason to assume African American turnout will drop all that much.
B) White college voters are shifting towards Clinton, Trump already maxed out here with Romneys numbers among non-college whites
C) Ground game, ground game, ground game
4) HB2 and the general state of the NC GOP.

It will decrease and that's a fact. Both nominees are extremely unpopular and there is a reason to believe that turnout will be lower than 2012. Trump has ground to gain with college educated voters and I believe that he will in the end. He should lose that group narrowly.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 02:15:01 PM
Nice! :)

Little by little :)


NC and Ohio are little bit off, but overall it seems like Clinton up 1-3 nationally.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Virginiá on September 08, 2016, 02:16:02 PM
I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.

Basically what Wiz said:

Quote
A) No reason to assume African American turnout will drop all that much.
B) White college voters are shifting towards Clinton, Trump already maxed out here with Romneys numbers among non-college whites
C) Ground game, ground game, ground game
4) HB2 and the general state of the NC GOP.

The scenario you are proposing - that reduced African American turnout/support will tank Clinton in NC simply because she isn't black, that would require a pretty decent drop given the support Clinton has from other demographics. Such a drop is unlikely in just 1 election. Black turnout was already trending upwards before Obama, he just supercharged it. Given that studies show people who vote once tend to vote more and more, I'd be skeptical of any claims of the "2012->2004 electorate theory."

To emphasize on Wiz's other points - Clinton is beating the crap out of Trump with GOTV in NC, and her support from college educated whites is valuable as they have higher turnout rates than non-college whites. Romney got, what, almost 60% of college educated whites in 2012, and 74% of non-college? 42-38 is a significant narrowing, even if most of Trump's lost support went to 3rd parties or is undecided.

So I dunno. There are too many reasons to believe Trump is at a disadvantage here if Clinton keeps the race in NC close.


Oh my god, no. You can't claim something like that as a fact. It's your opinion. The election hasn't even happened yet.

Both nominees are extremely unpopular and there is a reason to believe that turnout will be lower than 2012. Trump has ground to gain with college educated voters and I believe that he will in the end. He should lose that group narrowly.

Based on polls in the past that have correlated somewhat with turnout, there is actually reason to believe that turnout could be high, or remain at 2012 levels:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/07/08/why-clinton-and-trump-may-increase-voter-turnout-in-2016/



Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: DrScholl on September 08, 2016, 02:43:37 PM
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Illuminati Blood Drinker on September 08, 2016, 02:47:23 PM
Wow, if Clinton is getting these numbers in rigged Quinnijunk polls, imagine what her numbers must really be! Trump is FLOUNDERING, folks. Sad!


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: HillOfANight on September 08, 2016, 02:52:48 PM
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten of 538 noted that the racial weighting seems a bit funky. 64% white, vs 71% in 2012.

I played around in Excel, and matching 2012's racial demographics is a 1 point Trump lead, and assuming 70% is a tie.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 02:59:40 PM
Wow, if Clinton is getting these numbers in rigged Quinnijunk polls, imagine what her numbers must really be! Trump is FLOUNDERING, folks. Sad!
Love you! :D
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
You too! :D


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Person Man on September 08, 2016, 03:01:50 PM
Down 4 in North Carolina in a Quinnipiac poll isn't impressive. Being down 4 against Trump in Ohio isn't either...Interesting map..


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:02:07 PM

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten from 538 seems to think Suffolk has it weighted better than Quinnipiac, 69% white vs Q's 64% white (it was 71% in 2012).

I expect red hacks to be as unskew'ish as they were towards CNN :D


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Matty on September 08, 2016, 03:07:39 PM
NC electorate in 2012 was 71% white, this poll expects 64%.

No way in hell that happens.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:12:35 PM
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten of 538 noted that the racial weighting seems a bit funky. 64% white, vs 71% in 2012.

I played around in Excel, and matching 2012's racial demographics is a 1 point Trump lead, and assuming 70% is a tie.

Nate Cohn (Upshot NYT) agrees:

Quote
.@Judy_A_480 @ForecasterEnten @jbarro the NC will not be anywhere near 64% white

So shell we unskew it like CNN? Invisible Obama taught me, that demographical unskewing is not really an unskewing. Right, Invisible Obama? :)

With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

Let's do it! Or does it apply to Trump friendly polls ONLY? :)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 08, 2016, 03:18:31 PM
NC electorate in 2012 was 71% white, this poll expects 64%.

No way in hell that happens.

Quit unskewing. North Carolina is clearly trending in this direction. It'll be up to Trump to re-establish himself with the so-called 'educated' vote like he has in several other states...just not here yet. I don't think he will pull it off, but that's his only hope. Not changing the demographic battle. Fight with what you got.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: DrScholl on September 08, 2016, 03:18:57 PM
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten of 538 noted that the racial weighting seems a bit funky. 64% white, vs 71% in 2012.

I played around in Excel, and matching 2012's racial demographics is a 1 point Trump lead, and assuming 70% is a tie.

Nate Cohn (Upshot NYT) agrees:

Quote
.@Judy_A_480 @ForecasterEnten @jbarro the NC will not be anywhere near 64% white

So shell we unskew it like CNN? Invisible Obama taught me, that demographical unskewing is not really an unskewing. Right, Invisible Obama? :)

With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

Let's do it! Or does it apply to Trump friendly polls ONLY? :)

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: NOVA Green on September 08, 2016, 03:20:59 PM
As long as Clinton can hold Pennsylvania in the east, she should be OK as long as North Carolina and Florida is iffy at best for Trump.

It's tough to imagine a realistic map in which Trump wins nationally, but loses PA (and VA). The only one I can think of involves the unlikely sweep of NC, IA, OH, FL, NV, and NH (with a bonus ME2 if a tie-breaker is necessary)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:22:18 PM
You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? :)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 08, 2016, 03:25:49 PM
You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? :)

Are you trying to make his behavior match your expectations?  That sounds like you're unskewing it. :)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: DrScholl on September 08, 2016, 03:27:47 PM
You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? :)

The poll speaks for itself.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:35:08 PM
You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? :)

Are you trying to make his behavior match your expectations?  That sounds like you're unskewing it. :)

CONSISTENT.

Either you unskew all the polls [with "wrong" demographics] or you don't. It is that simple, bro :)
Othervise, it seems little bit... ehm.. pathetic. Do you really not think so ???

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? :)

The poll speaks for itself.
But CNN :(


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 08, 2016, 03:38:38 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: The Other Castro on September 08, 2016, 03:40:09 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: NOVA Green on September 08, 2016, 03:45:56 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.

For all of the controversy regarding their shift from RV to LV, overall they are still an A- Polling firm based on 538 data and use a mix of landlines and cell phones, with an 87% accuracy rating and a slight 0.7% Rep House bias.

These are considered better than most of the post-labor day polls we have seen thus far, so although we can argue about the sample size of certain populations, there's no reason to throw these in the trash as junk polls.



Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 08, 2016, 03:49:37 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.

For all of the controversy regarding their shift from RV to LV, overall they are still an A- Polling firm based on 538 data and use a mix of landlines and cell phones, with an 87% accuracy rating and a slight 0.7% Rep House bias.

These are considered better than most of the post-labor day polls we have seen thus far, so although we can argue about the sample size of certain populations, there's no reason to throw these in the trash as junk polls.

     Quinnipiac has a solid reputation going back a decade and is among the best of the uni polls. They're a welcome breath of fresh air among the many actual junk polls we have to deal with.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: NOVA Green on September 08, 2016, 03:55:08 PM
I mean, the NC poll is obviously too Democratic-friendly and I doubt that PA will be 9 points more Democratic than OH, but overall this looks pretty plausible.

Agreed that NC looks to be too Dem friendly, but makes sense that OH and FL would be close to tied with Trump's national polling improvements in the past couple weeks.

PA does look on the verge of being out of reach for Trump and rapidly on the way of becoming a VA or CO (Virtually impossible) because of White educated voters in the Philly Burbs and Republican/Indie suburban women.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 03:59:07 PM
Compared to their polls from    JUL. 30-AUG. 7
Also LV:

Florida
Clinton - 43% (+0)
Trump - 43%  (+0)
Johnson - 8% (-1)

Ohio
Trump - 41% (-1)
Clinton - 37% (-7)
Johnson - 14% (+6) ;)

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 44% (-4)
Trump - 39%  (+0)
Johnson - 9% (+2)
[/quote]

So, the shift in Florida is too Clinon-friendly, while shift in Ohio is too Trump-friendly. Othervise Clinton >>> Johnson.

It is pretty much consistent with national polls. They show, that Trump was gaining 1-2% since Khan controversy (Clinton +8-9), while Hillary was losing 3-4%. Though Johnson was very stable in nat.polls... ::)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 08, 2016, 03:59:25 PM
[PA does look on the verge of being out of reach for Trump and rapidly on the way of becoming a VA or CO (Virtually impossible) because of White educated voters in the Philly Burbs and Republican/Indie suburban women.

You're assuming that those voters will abandon the GOP for good, which really isn't likely at all. Not every state is becoming "the next VA".


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 04:00:58 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.
Discussions?

Quote
RV sucks (because TRUMP!!!111)
LV rules   (because CLINTON!!!111)
is not really a discussion.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Wells on September 08, 2016, 04:02:42 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.
Discussions?

Quote
RV sucks (because TRUMP!!!111)
LV rules   (because CLINTON!!!111)
is not really a discussion.

LV has always been more accurate than RV.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 04:05:14 PM
I'm confused....I thought that Quinnipiac was supposed to be super biased and not to be trusted?

See the numerous discussions about the shift in RV to LV.
According to 538, QU so far has had R house effect of exactly the same size as Marist has had for D.
But I haven't seen any discussions about Marist, have you? I wounder why...
()


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Maxwell on September 08, 2016, 04:18:12 PM
btw - very smart choice for Quinnipiac not to poll Colorado.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 08, 2016, 05:02:07 PM
Send Obama to Pa & CO in the last days of campaigning


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Panda Express on September 08, 2016, 05:50:26 PM
Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 06:00:25 PM
Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Wells on September 08, 2016, 06:09:07 PM
Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

Okay, you need to stop. Have you ever had an original thought in your life? Have you even ever thought anything before? Because if you have, then please just stop constantly spamming and constantly empty quoting and put an ounce of thought into the posts you make. This is an intervention. We care about you and we want you to be happy. This isn't good for you.

Also, how old are you?


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 06:12:05 PM
Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

So... was this post really necessary? If you're just going to derail threads, I'll put you on ignore.
??? Lol

It is sort of normal on this forum to +1 posts one likes by quoting them :)
Who the hell is this LittleOctopus person from Sweden spamming the boards with his nonsense? I'd rather have Seriously?.

Okay, you need to stop. Have you ever had an original thought in your life? Have you even ever thought anything before? Because if you have, then please just stop constantly spamming and constantly empty quoting and put an ounce of thought into the posts you make. This is an intervention. We care about you and we want you to be happy. This isn't good for you.

Also, how old are you?
It is offtopic. Why didn't you write a pm to me?
Do you wanna get some kudos from red hacks? :)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: heatcharger on September 08, 2016, 06:22:40 PM
??? Lol

It is sort of normal on this forum to +1 posts one likes by quoting them :)

While this is true, it isn't supposed to be done in excess like you do. Besides, adding a smiley or some one-word response isn't any better.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Xing on September 08, 2016, 06:37:14 PM
The ignore button is a wonderful thing, especially if you can resist the urge to press "show." ;)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Mallow on September 08, 2016, 06:39:27 PM
The ignore button is a wonderful thing, especially if you can resist the urge to press "show." ;)

Yep. Only problem is one particular poster has generally reasonable posts regarding polls, but horrible political posts. But, still have him on ignore.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 06:48:40 PM

??? Lol

It is sort of normal on this forum to +1 posts one likes by quoting them :)

Uh, the guy was criticizing you in his post.
I found it very ironical, that he criticised my "spamming" by offtop'ing.
And... what did he expext to get as answer? ???


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: ProudModerate2 on September 08, 2016, 07:34:19 PM
Looks about right.
Just wish Hillary can do better in OH.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on September 08, 2016, 08:16:40 PM
Looks about right.
Just wish Hillary can do better in OH.

Doubt it. Her unfavorables are higher in Ohio then most other swing states.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 08, 2016, 10:33:40 PM
Did they not do senate polls?


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on September 09, 2016, 12:46:27 AM
(silently wonders whether or not is on anyone's ignore list at the time being)


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 09, 2016, 12:11:03 PM
Trump can win OH and still lose, because of Pa, CO, Iowa & NV. Poll is due to the sudden drop in Strickland's standings.


Title: Re: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 10, 2016, 12:16:47 PM
It is actually weird how well Trump is doing in Ohio, despite a strong "non-endorsment" from Kasich (who has high favorables there, right?) ???

I expected him to do better in Florida than Ohio. Hispanics? ???