Talk Elections

With NC starting their absentee voting today, it's about time for a thread.

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

Go Hillary!!! Win NC.

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

There's that guy who tracks early voting, and I think from him early voting in NC in 2012 was +5-10 Republican.

I forget, anyone else know what I mean? I recall it being in the previous NC early voting thread from a week or so ago.

The results so far don't look that great for Hillary (compared with 2012), but it's VERY early. I remember that when most of the early votes were counted in 2012, Obama had a narrow lead over Romney, but he ended up losing by 2. Kay Hagan had a larger lead once the early votes were counted, about 5 points, but she also lost.

Would you, please, link to the source?

Does it update every day?

Clinton also destroyed Sanders when it came to the early vote, in almost every state.

Before anyone screams "D+10! YEAH!!!", I would note that this was a state where there was a slew of rural counties voting for Sanders as an "anti-establishment" vote by nominal Democrats who will mostly vote for Trump in the general. So the D advantage is misleading.

So did Democrats go from +2 to +10 since the primary?

Considering the partisan difference in registration is D+10 but the partisan difference in early requests is only D+2, I'd say this is pretty good news for Republicans.

Of course, I know early requests generally skew Republican and yadda yadda yadda, but still.

Is this number updated daily or?

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?).

There is probably a simpler way, who knows.

I founded it on http://www.ncsbe.gov/ (http://www.ncsbe.gov/)  "Download Data" section. If you then from  https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html (https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html) go to "ENRS/" folder and choose sort by "LastModified", you will find a file named "absentee11xx08xx2016.zip".

It is an csv file that can be opened for example by Excel.

According to it:

37810 have voted so far:

DEM: 14005, 37.0%
REP:  13165, 34.8%
LIB:      120,   0.3%
UNA: 10520, 27.8%


EDIT: last update was 11 hours ago. They probably won't update under weekend.

IDK, probably. But I think, there are plenty of statistics junkies, who'd love to do it on daily basis.

Tender? :D

I've made a tiny Python script that shows demographics stats as well.

Total:
DEM    14006
REP    13169
UNA    10520
LIB      120

Men:
REP    5831
DEM    4935
UNA    4771
LIB      75

Women:
DEM    8864
REP    7199
UNA    5455
LIB      40

Undecided:
UNA    294
DEM    207
REP    139
LIB      5

18-29:
UNA    2494
DEM    2142
REP    1761
LIB      44

30-44:
DEM    1767
UNA    1652
REP    1397
LIB      45

45-64:
DEM    3173
REP    3123
UNA    2399
LIB      20

65 & over:
DEM    6924
REP    6888
UNA    3975
LIB      11

White:
REP    12488
DEM     9388
UNA     8746
LIB       90

Other: (includes UNDESIGNATED)
DEM    4618
UNA    1774
REP     681
LIB      30

Is that voted though, or requests?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774603224967892992
Per Michael McDonald

As of yesterday in NC:
27 people have voted
37,758 outstanding ballot reqs

Yes, you are right.

Requests.

I wouldn't read too much into absentee ballot request data until closer to election day.

Why not the direct link?

Because they might change the name of file. Who knows.

https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip (https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip)

This file
https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip (https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip)

Column "ballot_request_party"

They updated the zip-file today (they seem to update it each morning), but the data itself hasn't been updated..

Sept 24 NJ starts mailing main in ballots

It is, of course, to early (just 38K so far have requested a ballot vs 2.7M that voted in 2012). But still:

Cumulative sum by date of request (Note: overlapping!!):
green = unaffiliated

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They haven't changed since this post ↓↓↓

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774245192467480577
Is there a way to track daily stats by demographics?

9/9/16, Michael said


which seems like a huge Dem lead (ignoring the close voter registration), so it's either out of context, or not really that great historically?

Yes, https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip (https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip)

Oops, never bothered to open the file. I thought I read on his feed 80% of early ballots were Black, I was dyslexic.

By gender, I see 22.8K female ballots (57%) and 16.6k male ballots (41%). Hope I didn't butcher that number.

Total requested ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                    15682 (+897)
REP                     14873 (+872)
UNA                    11839 (+680)
LIB                          138 (+  11)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                       163 (+83)
REP                          92 (+47)
UNA                         81 (+35)
LIB                             2 (+  1)

50% increase for the Libertarians!!

Not looking too bad with the Absentee's from North Carolina.  Real test is the early voting in the state, not these.

Total requested ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                    16629 (+  947)
REP                     15886 (+1013)
UNA                    12685 (+  846)
LIB                         145 (+     7)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                       257 (+94)
REP                        154 (+62)
UNA                       131 (+50)
LIB                            3 (+  1)
[/quote]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.


http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

I wouldn't be so sure. This is an area I expect to swing to Trump (though I think Clinton will very narrowly carry Mahoning)

This could be a Trump surge

Isn't the City of Youngstown itself pretty black?

Yep the black and white population there is pretty equal at roughly 45%.

Nah, Hillary will still crush him there.

Very fishy

Curious what your reasoning is (I know little of Youngstown area but heard estimates that between 20-30% of union members are voting for Trump)

Of course it is.

Democratic ballot requests are way up compared to 2012 in NC. (https://twitter.com/electproject/status/776629943438446592)

He also tweets:


So, not even 2% of the expected early vote has even requested ballots ... (or 1% of the expected overall vote).

Yes, very early, but still encouraging about the strength of the Dem ground game.

This is also encouraging:

https://twitter.com/wegetmessages/status/776654203557064704
Still very early, not many ballots returned, and not significant compared to actual in person early vote.

Someone found it similar to 2012.

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Yeah, but not the county as a whole by a long shot.

Dr. Michael Blitzer is doing some analysis of the early voting in NC: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Some interesting graphs:

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Obviously in 2012 Republicans started dominating early voting at 51 days before the election, but the outstanding main-in ballots seem to be split still between Dems and GOP.

Let's see if Democrats hold their lead for a large period of time.

A similar pattern is seen in Maine as Dems are in the very early going outpacing their 2012 early turnout. We'll see if it holds up

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/777622513975042048

Did you even read that he said he's going to compare it with 2012 later tonight?

In Maine Republican and Democratic ballot request are both ahead of 2012, but more so Republicans. Unenrolled down though. https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/777661571673694208

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It's early, but those don't seem to suggest an enormous Republican trend in the state, which would be necessary to flip ME-02.

Yeah, it looks like from those CD breakdowns that Clinton would win CD-2 by 3-5 points as long as that trend continued. Maine would shift 2-3 points right but not into any kind of battleground status

When does by mail voting start for Oregon? I really want to vote CLINTON and all the way down the ticket for every democrat on this years ballot. Badly.

I think early voting is just becoming more popular in general. It's probably too early to glean much more than that from this info.

North Carolina numbers:

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I decided to make a map because why not. Shading is based on the party registration of accepted ballots.

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Democrats 44
Began 14
Hasn't begun 480

I'll just be updating this based on what I see in this thread.

Updates: Dems still ahead in NC (by enough to where I can assume Clinton is likely leading), and FL released their numbers (currently 3-1 Dem).

I'm likely voting early so that I can spend election day giving people rides to the polls.

NC absentee ballots through 9/19

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https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/778189996461330432

18% are overseas ballots and are 50-23% Dem/Rep;

82% are "domestic" ballots and are 39-37% Dem.

The numbers so far are definitely not great for the GOP if they wanted to replicate their 2012 victory in the state. Obviously things can and will change, but I think we might be seeing the first signs of Clinton's ground game massively outclassing Trump's. Considering the age skew of the absentee ballots, the GOP absolutely should be leading.

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

We also regrettably don't (as far as I know) have data from 2012 to compare to.

Don't read too much into that.  Most new people seem to register as non-affiliated in Florida, heavily so in the case of those from Puerto Rico.

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

No numbers for Palm Beach County either

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

I guess this could indicate a lot of ordinarily Democratic Iowa early voters are undecided this time. I wonder how big the swing is gonna be.

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side

Hopefully we see a huge democratic upswing soon.

I've done some reading and yes, Clinton is delaying the absentee campaign, while the GOP is keeping the same schedule, which does explain why the GOP is roughly on par with 2012 and the Dems are behind.

NC absentee ballots through 9/21

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Well, early voting from that Old North site show Democrats holding longer than in 2012.

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Also, while the Democrats and Unaffiliateds are ahead of their 2012 numbers, Republicans are lagging behind.

Great news! NC will definitely be down to the wire this year

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

I never claimed it was representative... I pointed out that the trend line seems to favor Clinton.

We can only see if this is true if the "trend" holds up if for example 2 million absentee/early votes are in ... but not just 4.000.

Thanks for the info. As someone who has voted by mail since 2008 I was wondering when I was even going to receive my request notice to send in for a ballot. Mine still hasn't come yet. Those dem numbers should definitely spike then over the next month.

The huge number of absentee ballot requests among college-aged voters in NC: did that happen four years ago as well?

Absentee ballots started going out in Georgia yesterday, according to the data available from SoS. It's a shame that they don't have an option for viewing all of the state's data at once: it's broken down into individual files for each county regardless of how you sort it. No data on race or age in there, either. :( Here are the mailed absentee totals for the 25 counties with the most requests (60% of state's population):

Do Georgia absentee ballots usually skew pretty R?

https://twitter.com/NCCivitas/status/779037596265619456
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

Civitas has an easy vote/registration tracker here.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/779045369632034817
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Democrats maintaining an edge in requested absentee ballots in North Carolina. Anyone have any idea when the GOP took the lead last cycle?

According to this graph the GOP took the lead 51 days before Election Day last cycle.

While this is good news, my worry is that a lot of White conservative Democrats that haven't voted in ages have been reengaged by Trump and that passion is partially at work here. Or maybe this is all just a sign of Clinton's superior ground game.

The GOP took the lead 3 or 4 days earlier than this in 2012 so they are lagging by quite a bit. Dem ballot requests are still above 2012 levels

MSNBC just announced the party registration of the first 4,000 returned absentee ballots in NC:

Democrat 42%
Republican 34%
Unaffiliated 25%
Libertarian <1%

Obviously we don't know exactly who these votes were cast for, but a eight point registration lead has to mean something good for Clinton. And before anyone says "DIXIECRATS!", it was also mentioned that at this point in 2012, Republicans had a 5% lead in this statistic.

I'd say it is encouraging for Clinton, but we will have to wait and see.

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

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Democrats are outperforming their 2012 numbers and the GOP is underperforming.

Nope, they usually favor the GOP

Edit: Iowa is a rare exception

Absentee ballots usually favor the GOP while in person early voting favors Democrats.

I'm ready to project a winner

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My guess would be that it's a bit of both. Overall, these numbers are looking good so far, but it is still very early.

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What will be interesting about this is, are these Democratic votes election day and early votes being turned or is this something bigger.

Per Nate Cohn's model Trump has a two point lead with the NC Ballots.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/779332855084220416

That... doesn't make sense.

He also noted this represents an improvement from 2012.

Which is way down from 2012, or did you not what to add that part as well.

Interesting in the Maine data that both R and D are up in CD1 but down in CD2, which pretty much cancel out in the statewide numbers.

In Iowa, Dems typically have a huge early advantage in requested ballots - but that doesn't mean anything for the election day result, or the total early/absentee vote (because the margin narrows the closer you get to election day):

So far, about 91.000 ballots were requested, with a 56% D 21% R split.

During roughly the same time in 2014, about 147.000 ballots were requested, with a 53% D 27% R split.

So it is an improvement, just not "huge D lead!" As some have interpreted. Still, fits CV of them doing better

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

Not on the SoS website.

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

The Republican surge in Maine doesn't look like it's happening just yet. I suppose it's possible that Trump is winning unaffiliated voters by a wide margin, or a lot of Democrats are voting for Trump, but those numbers alone suggest a very slight R trend in ME-02, rather than a 9% swing or greater.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

I'm hearing that the Dems had a 3 point lead in 2012.

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.

Not to go off track, but what the heck was up with that? How can a campaign be so good at absentee/early vote, but so bad on election day at GOTV?

I'd argue that campaigns and outreach drive early voting turnout more than Election Day turnout.  Early voting turnout mostly consists of voters who were inevitably going to cast ballots, but were extra motivated to do it early.  It's quite possible that a campaign could do an excellent job of motivating those inevitable voters, and yet the overall electorate could exhibit depressed turnout.  In short, it's easier to convert someone from an inevitable voter than an early voter, than it is to convince them that it's worth voting at all.

Another factor: 1,000 voters converted to early voting may be a meaningful increase in early voting (as a % increase), but 1,000 voters mobilized on Election Day may only be a drop in the bucket.

And most obviously, there's way less time to mobilize Election Day voters than to convert voters into early voters.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/779667613559336961

NC ABS VOTE TRENDS (9/17 to 9/24):
From 43-32-25 to 41-35-25 Dem, and

from 80-12-8 to 82-12-6 white/black.

IOW, more Trump friendly.

Party registration of accepted ballots so far (Keep in mind that very few ballots were cast in ME, IA and FL so far):

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Red = Democratic
Blue = Republican
Green = Unaffiliated

Nationwide:

D 2,735   40.5%
R 2,351   34.8%
I  1,647   24.4%
O      25   0.4%    

Total 6,758

Party registration of requested ballots so far:

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Nationwide:

D 846,845   38.2%
R 929,939   41.9%
I 392,148    17.7%
O 50,332     2.3$

Total 2,219,264

Only 50 votes have been returned so far in FL ... lol

Could you also do a map of requests ?

Because FL has over 2 million requests already, with Republicans leading 43%-37%.

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

Yeah, that's why it is so interesting that these trends are occurring.  You would expect something a bit more.

So did Clinton...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897?o=1
http://lpstrategies.com/white-papers/its-time-for-democrats-to-ctfd/920,2016

In most states, Trump did not really bring new voters, but in North Carolina, 8% of GOP primary voters were new voters according to Lincoln Park Strategies.

Absentee voting way up in Northern Virginia:


That's a 91% increase from 2012.

Falls Church, VA also saw 5% it's city's active turnout vote on day.

Another interesting twitter drump by Dave Wasserman:

http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/republicans-lead-early-voting-in-florida-by-120000/

Republicans lead early voting in Florida by 120,000 votes (of 2 Million votes)
Republicans 43% | Democrats  37% | Indpendent 17.5% | Other Party 2.5%

It seems now Florida - Likely TRUMP

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This is encouraging, but I don't want to rad too much into this. Registering new voters is one thing, getting them to the polls is a different kind of challenge.

Dude, you need to stop being so careless with your posts-- these aren't actual votes, just ballot requests.

Did you really think 2 million people in Florida had already voted?

Also, as I understand it, Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting-- especially early on-- so I doubt these numbers are much different from 2012 when Obama won Florida.

For the record, the actual early Florida vote (obtained from https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats via http://www.electproject.org/early_2016) is ...

Democrats 26
Republicans 15
Not Affiliated 5

...for a grand total of 46 actual votes.

It seems now Florida - Likely CLINTON! WOO HOO!!

Here's a good summary on the limited early voting (and ballot request) data that's come in so far across the country:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

4.3 million early votes in Florida in 2012.

43% Democrat
40% Republican

That includes all the vote in person. Absentees skew GOP, vote in person skews Dem

From a Blog post (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html?) from UofFlorida professor who runs the US Elections Project and is tracking early voting with the AP...

he has more data here...
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Hard to compare because of this change:

"In 2012, Florida adopted semi-permanent absentee ballot status where mail ballot voters can request to vote-by-mail in the next election when they mail in their ballot, and we saw an increase of mail balloting in 2014."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

Ah, so we are comparing apples and oranges in Florida.

Update with New Graphic for NC:

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Also, question: why and how did the total Republican ballots accepted in 2012 decrease between day 38 and 37?

Edit: nevermind, I guess it just didn't change.

None of the bars changed significantly, presumably because it was a Sunday so the mail couldn't deliver the ballots. 

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

Don't have an idea, posted because I thought someone might know something.

Oh, sorry I forgot to type in Iowa. Not intentional.

I don't think Iowa can be compared yet, because...

"Iowa started their mail balloting slightly later than 2012 due to slower printing of ballots."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

There's some more detailed Iowa analysis later in the article-- basically, both Democratic and Republican ballot requests are down from past years, presumably because of the ballot printing delay.

MSM: Hillary won the debate! oh!!!!!!!! yea~~~~~! (orgasm)

Floridian people: Wrong!

Florda  Vote-by-Mail Request
9/23 REP 881K | DEM 760K
REP  +121K
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/yuge-trump-leads-early-voting-florida-120000-first-republicans-state/
↓
9/27 3PM   REP 959K | DEM 815K
REP +144K

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
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Lol, you're a delight.

Noting that most ballot requests from the last 24 hours wouldn't have been processed yet and don't pretend that you have the vaguest idea what an orgasm is.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

1st debate was finished 09/26/2016 10:30PM
Florida vote-by-mail request Compiled     09/27/2016 3:39PM

K gurl. Whatever helps you sleep in your mother's basement.

The huge black bolded capitalized text "shouting" I see on this page is annoying, and unnecessary. It does not lend the text gravitas. It does precisely the opposite. Thank you.

Do we have FL numbers from this point in the election in 2012?

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

This really isn't true.

Thought the number for GOP in CD2 would be higher. Perhaps polls overstating GOP support or Dems crossing over? Too early to tell, alas

I think it's best to wait and see what happens in the early voting period. We really don't know who is voting for who. A lot of them could be older conservative Democrats who support Trump.


Looking at the graph it looks like there was a net negative shift somewhere in the single digits for the Dems and a net positive shift somewhere in the single digits for the Republicans. I think it's too early to tell if this will be meaningful.

What are the party affiliation numbers like in Maine these days?


Isn't it plurality independent?

Agreed, all this means is that the Dems are doing better, and the GOP worse, than this point in 2012. But still not a ton of votes to count on.

It wouldn't surprise me if that were he case

http://www.pressherald.com/interactive/maine_registered_voters_democrat_republican_independent_green/


36.7 Unenrolled.  Not as high as I seemed to think (mid 40's).

From Ari Berman

;)

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/28/gop-jumps-140000-lead-fl-absentee-requests/

Thanks to the big gaps in Orange and Osceola, Democrats have an I-4 advantage of 7,368 ballots, or about a 40.2/39.3 percentage advantage. Worth noting: George W. Bush handily won Osceola in 2004 52.5/47, Hillsborough by 53/46.2, and came within 800 votes of winning Orange while taking the state 52/47. These seven counties account for over a third of all absentee ballot requests in the state of Florida.

If the I-4 Corridor still holds the key to the Sunshine State — and it’s almost certain to be won or lost in these seven counties — then Republicans might be at a serious disadvantage already, and better hope to win big among independents.

Found this


http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

FWIW Hillary Clinton has received at least one vote in Minnesota. Feels weird to have done my civic duty 6 weeks before the election. 

Thank you :)

Even though Republicans now lead with requests, Democrats still hold a roughly 500 vote lead in returned ballots:

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Source (http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)

Note that it is the first day that 2016 Dems lag behind 2012 Repubs.

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

This was done 9/23, but I don't think it was posted here. Condenses a lot of Michael McDonald's random insights. I found it by Googling TargetSmart (the one that had the Clinton +3 Ohio poll recently). The Michigan party ID was estimated since the government doesn't track it.

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In North Carolina/Pennsylvania, 18-29 are a higher % of ballot requests than 30-44 #GroundGame.

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Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

Maybe Robby Mook DOES know what he's doing

Mook is a genius folks. Don't you ever doubt that beautiful son of a bitch.

He IS a piece of work after all ;)

-ahem- Back to the subject, it looks like something big is happening in Iowa that the polls aren't catching for Dem ballots to be leading by such an overwhelming amount.

Well, so much for Safe R Iowa. In terms of Party ID, it's now looking more like it did in 2012. How do the other states compare to 2012?

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

Aren't they underperforming?

Not in FL, the GOP had a much larger lead in % terms.

Democrats are doing even better than they were doing in 2008 right now in Florida in terms of Absentees.

However, as TN Volunteer's post shows, that is not reflected (yet) in returned ballots (at least in NC):

wrong! it's not wise to compare with 2008 results because

1.  At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent,
<----------- it's not a final results. where is the final results of
total absentee vote numbers; republican vs democrats?

2. in 2008 absentee ballots were only 1.85 million.(final results)
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2012/dec/07/ken-detzner/florida-elections-chief-says-we-had-record-turnout/

3. in 2016, The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.(11/2/2016)
9/28/2016, already 2.24 million. 400k more than final results of 2008.
I guess it will surpass 3million for sure.

The Department of State’s Division of Elections is providing vote-by-mail (formerly referred to as absentee*)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.

conclusion)
It doesn't make any change of the fact: TRUMP takes the leads in Florida ;)

It's very dangerous reading too much into these early numbers.

I agree - but I think a broad conclusion you could look to is that the ground-games of the campaigns are being reflected in these early numbers.

Maybe. Just wanted to point out that these early numbers don't prove that FL will be won by Trump or that Clinton is doing better than expected in IA.

He seemed so calm and assured when he appeared on The View. That's good job but for some reason I trust him when he said don't panic we will win.

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

Iowa: As of Thursday morning, Democrats have more than twice as many absentee ballots requested than Republicans. However, Democrats also lag far behind the number of absentees requested at this point in 2012, while Republicans are slightly ahead of their past performance. It’s not enough for Democrats to simply beat Republicans on the early vote, they need to do it by a wide margin.

The national Clinton campaign reportedly researched when the most effective time of the campaign was to talk with voters, and used that data to adjust the early vote schedule.

The first day early vote numbers were publicly reported, Democrats were only at 45% of their totals in 2012 at that time. Now they’re to 56%.

()

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/781481644347658241 Speaking of Iowa, today is the first day they begin "in-person early voting"

and also I found it.

Sandiego Union Tribune, October 8th 2012.
Title: Romney looks to cut Obama's early voter advantage

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-romney-looks-to-cut-obamas-early-voter-advantage-2012oct08-story.html

 Among the 29,000 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

It's a small sample - more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state's early vote by 11 percentage points.

"North Carolina was a place that they totally caught us flat-footed in 2008," Beeson said. "They jumped out to a lead and never looked back. You don't see that happening this time - Republicans have the lead."

Florida's sample is even smaller - only 10,000 votes so far - but it too favors Republicans over Democrats, 53 percent to 32 percent. In 2008, nearly 4.6 million voters in Florida cast ballots before Election Day.

can u see 'only 10,000 votes so far'? (At early October)

 
Vote-By-Mail Request in Florida: September,29th,2016
Total nearly 2.3 Million votes.

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here (https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats).

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

Any updates from early voting in Iowa by Party ID, or do these numbers not come in until tomorrow?

So far, based on past results, Iowa

But, this does need to be put in context.

Good! Also, does absentee/early voting help democrats and republicans usually vote on election day? If republicans r pretty much even with democrats with absentee/early voting they should be good on election day? What about florida i'm seeing a lot of mixed signals on here about how they requested more ballots but not a bigger % as 2008?

hey snobby,
Because it takes time to return ballots :p
in the end most people would send.

Iowa 2012 (it's not florida data. but about the return rate, it would be similar)

Party    2012 Requested    2012 Returned    Return Rate
Democrat    312,834               287,935               92%
Republican    229,596               219,576               96%
No Party             198,342              181,260               91%

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

He probably went to school in Russia. :P

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

Bad signs for Trump all around. He needs to be winning absentee ballots unquestionably to even match Romney.

The results out of Mecklenburg will also be intetesting. Similar dynamics possibly.

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

Sweet

WOW. I've assumed the Dem advantage so far is because Obama didn't seriously contest the state in 2012 whereas the Clinton campaign is organizing voters...

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

I'm dubious that this surge has nothing to do with the Clinton campaign... See 18-29 in NC > 30-44. Maybe he meant organizers haven't been prodding outstanding ballots to return themselves yet, but the campaign has targeted and instructed voters on the process.

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Could be that campus organizations (College Democrats) in North Carolina are driving absentee turnout.

They're doing it here in Wisconsin. I've seen several college campuses with tables full of absentee ballot pages in areas with lots of student movement, so it wouldn't surprise me.

A lot of these are managed by young women too.

Among returned and accepted ballots, though, registered Democrats have 40 percent of those ballots, with 35 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters.
()

In comparing this year's numbers of returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots by party registration, the trend continues to hold for registered Democrats and registered unaffiliated voters by their over-performance.
()

While the total returned and accepted mail-in absentee ballots are 106 percent of the same-day totals from 2012, registered Democrats are at 140 percent, registered unaffiliated voters are at 139 percent, and registered Republicans are behind their cumulative numbers from four years ago, at only 73 percent of their same-day totals.

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Very favorable trend for Clinton!

It is very Clear.
Florida Absentee(Vote-by-Mail)
10/1/2016, TRUMP is doing far much better than Romney did in October,2012


Florida Absentee
Romney(October 2012): Republicans - Democrats = +12k
TRUMP(October 2016): Republicans - Democrats = +144k.  
Especially, Returned votes:  REP(1307)>>>>DEM(876)

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

1. Florida: The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000.

so, at Mid-October,2012. Republican leads Democrat of Absentee
only +12k votes in Flordia.

2. 10/1/2016.  Florida: Vote-by-Mail (Absentee)
Provided:  Republicans: 1.024 Million | Democrats: 880K    
Republicans leads Democrats of Absentee
+144k votes in Flordia.

Returned: Republicans 1307 >>>>> Democrats  876.    (Total 2741)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
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'boring' becuz TRUMP is doing well in FL? (Especially far much better than Romney did in Mid-October 2012.)

if it was FL: Vote-By-Mail Request DEM 1.05 Million > REP 900K
FL: Returned Votes: DEM 1400 votes > REP 1000 Votes
I'm sure, you would not say 'boring'.  ;)

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%   
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)   
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

 

You do realize domestic ballots, vast majority of absentee ballots, have not even been mailed yet (they go out this week). So far the only ballots that have returned are overseas/military. With fewer than 3,000 ballots returned (about 0.03% of expected turnout)  you can draw zero conclusions yet about Florida. 

Guys, please ignore the troll and don't let him derail this thread.

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith Oct 1
https://twitter.com/ElectProject
daniel a. smith Retweeted Nate Cohn

In FL, newly registered from Aug 1-Sept 1 2016:
White: 50.8%
Black: 13.4%
Hispanic: 20.8%

Rep: 24.8%
Dem: 34.2%
NPA: 38.7%
Dem:
NPA:

NC absentee ballot stats as of 10/2

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Democrats still ahead as of 10/2

Jeez! Those are encouraging numbers for IA Republicans.

Again... the Dems are still lagging timeline-wise. If we're still in this place in 10 days, then I'll be concerned.

Either I was right all along, or Ascott's and my avatar really are working some magic here. ;)

Nevada moves to Lean D with those registration numbers. Not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset. Probably moves the Senate race to Tossup even with Cortez-Masto trailing in most polling

Some Florida news:

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/782929522773680128

Dems have submitted 469k new voter registration forms. GOP submitted only 59k

Wow! Any comparison to 2012? Looks like Hillary's giant GOTV advantage is starting to pay off.

What does that mean? Have they been stockpiling forms, and will submit soon, or does it just mean the GOP is mostly self registering, while the Dems have been registering a lot of people manually?

Jon Rolston again:

New NV voter reg numbers: Ds up 77,467, picked up a net 5,830 in September. Margin up to 5.6  percent. Indies now more than 20 % of total.

DDHQ:

Colorado registration (active) as of this afternoon:
D 998,845
R 992,944
Ds now boast registration edge in CO.
UNA 1,080,438
 
Democrats take the active registration lead! Four years it was this:

In mid-Oct 2012, reg in CO stood at:
R 912456
D 871712
UNAF 882063

I see my prediction of Democrats taking the edge in active voter registration this month in Colorado has come true. Historic!

(づ◕‿‿◕)づ [Accolades]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

SoCal Anglo retirees moving to NV are greater than population growth among Native residents, especially considering the Latino population.

Baby Boomers, that are rapidly becoming the most selfish generation in modern American history, are now selling off their $500k ranch houses in OC and moving to the desert, and unlike SoCal, they can't live in their bubbleland of gated communities and golf courses, and the America of their rose-tinted glasses from the 1950s is much more diverse and multi-ethnic, and they simply don't that this country is so much different from back in the days.... (Sarcastic answer)

Ok--- that was a bit of a simplistic response, but I really do believe that migration of California retirees is shifting the Anglo vote more Republican, and that under a Democratic President (Obama) they have not seen housing relief from a catastrophic collapse of the retirement nest-egg, which for many Americans is basically the value of their house. (More serious answer).

Which rhymes with P, which stands for Pool!!

...sorry

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-10-04/clinton-camp-hispanics-mail-ballot-requests-up-in-fla-n-c

Hispanic voters’ requests for mail ballots are up 73% in Fla. compared to this point in 2012 and 43% in N.C., Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign says in "field report" memo.

Black voters’ mail ballot requests in N.C. are up 73% from 2012

RIP Dem hopes in IA.

It should be noted, though, that Obama won Iowa by about 92,000 votes in 2012. So at least the Dems have some wiggle room that they wouldn't have in a state like, say, Florida.

New data from Iowa.

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Looks like the GOP advantage is falling. We'll see if the Democratic strategy this cycle pays off in the late term.

So if I see this right, the Dems are starting to pick up on the absentee ballot requests in IA, after deliberately holding out on the push until later than average in the season (Per some of the various political sites reporting)?

IF Democrats don't drop at all in the election day vote while losing ground dramatically in thee early vote. but that's highly unlikely.

really? Now 5296 ballots returned.(voted)

Florida: Vote-by-mail(absentee) Returned ballots(voted)
Total 5296 ballots. 10/5/2016   4:02 AM
Republican 2587 (48.84%) | Democrat 1596 (30.11%) | 3rd Party 179 (3.37%) |
 Independent 935 (17.65%)

Total requested ballots (vote-by-mail)  2,466,451 + 5296 = 2,471,741
3rd Party 59,603 + 179 = 59782.   59,782 / 2,471,741 = 2.41%

if those ballots(returend) are mostly overseas/military. how come returned(voted) 3rd party ballots (3.37%) are 1.4 time higher than total numbers of requested by 3rd party voters (2.41%)?

if those returned ballots are mostly overseas/military, 3rd party voters rate % should be lower or similar as total %

I don't follow.  Military voters are younger and more male, which is consistent with the group being disproportionately registered with third parties (plus third-party vote tends to be higher on bases in general).

Looks like Iowa Republicans may be maxing out the number of voters actually willing to show up for Trump vs. a normal Republican candidate.

Let's look at this from the view of previous elections and the such, okay.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

This is Florida, Florida has more votes by Republicans right now, at a number that allowed Obama to be ahead in 2012 and 2008. Calculating the percentage of this vote with how much of the Florida electorate voted in 2012 and 2008, we can calculate that 29.8% of the vote has been already decided and its on the side of the Republicans.

Now let's look at the unaffiliated, big thing that always decides elections, Obama only lost the unaffiliated vote by 5% in 2012, and even then the huge amount of Black turnout really rose him above (black turnout was close to 70%)

So how is Trump and Hillary doing between independents?

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/782649685286629376

This is a poll, many polls are alike it but this is the only one that is post debate. As we can see from the debate, the support went from Trump and Hillary to the Libertarian Gary Johnson.

But considering Trump is nearly ahead by 20% between independents, we can calculate that a majority of that independent early vote is going to Trump.

Meaning that Trump is winning easily by 150k (estimate) in Florida already, I haven't seen the NC early voting reports by party so I'd love someone to post them.

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

Yeah, Florida is essentially a reverse Iowa.

I'll gladly take that trade.

It appears that Democrats have finally overtaken Republicans in active count in voting numbers.

http://www.coloradopols.com/diary/87996/dems-surpass-republicans-in-independent-plurality-colorado#sthash.cZafgvB2.dpbs

10/5

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Democrats still leading the accepted ballots! ;) Pretty amazing.

()


40 percent of returned and accepted ballots are from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Comparing returned and accepted ballots to the same day cumulative totals from the parties in 2012, registered Democrats still lead in their percentage (117 percent compared to their 2012 same-day cumulative numbers), with registered unaffiliated voters at 114 percent, and registered Republicans are at 58 percent of their same-day numbers.

()

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

The republican turn out is way the hell down...Trumps crappy organization is really starting to show.

When does in person early voting start in NC?

October 20.

Links?

Updated CO absentee ballot stats (from #APElecRsch) 2,472 voted. By party reg Dem 47.7% Rep 24.1% Unaffiliated 26.6%

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784075959506874368


At least 186,293 people have voted in the 2016 election as of 10/5 http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

NC absentee ballot stats as of 10/6

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https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

I can confirm for Iowa that the democratic party is delaying their early voting process. I've voted early by mail each election since 2008 and just today I finally received my request form in the mail for a vote by mail ballot! I was about to make a call in the next few days to make a request.

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:


In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

Very true. As for Florida, Mook is happy that Democrats have narrowed the gap with vote by mail. As long as they keep it relatively close (right now Repubs have 42.5% of the mail-in ballots, Dems have 38%, and Indies have the remaining 19.5%), they expect to overtake the Republicans in the early vote when in-person voting starts and think they'll have a larger lead going into Nov. 8 than Obama had 4 years ago

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

Yes, and how does that compare to previous years (if the data is available)?

I wasn't able to find anything. I'll post it if there is anything useful.

Or the Democrats may just be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. That's what happened in Georgia in 2014: based on early vote totals, it appeared that the electorate was going to be 6 points blacker than in 2010 and with much higher turnout. Instead, turnout in 2014 was slightly lower than in 2010; you just had a lot more people show up during early voting overall, and disproportionately more Democrats on top of that. Democrats have increasingly becoming good at mastering early voting. It's part of the reason that the GOP has recently developed a hate-boner for it.

Very true, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight in early indications. Early voting boosts turnout overall according to research so in theory, it does benefit Democrats.

One can argue that Democrats lost badly in 2014 despite the early voting and would have lost even bigger without it.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/10/team-clinton-boasts-its-edging-gop-in-mailed-ballots-from-less-reliable-florida-voters.html

Some 2.7 million people have requested ballots, compared to 1.8 million at the same point in 2012, he said -- an almost 50 percent increase. Requests from Hispanics are up 77 percent from the same point in 2012, he said, and from Asian-Americans up nearly 80 percent.

But the most important bit of data he highlighted was ballot requests from "low-propensity" voters -- people who don't reliably participate in elections.

"We are turning out more of our low-propensity voters than the Republicans, and that's what really matters when you're trying to win an election in the margins," Mook said.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/both-major-partys-cannibalizing-as-they-post-vote-by-mails-gains-106084

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Of the ballot requests, for those that didn't vote in 2012, 19% are Democrats, 16% Republicans.

Actually, what this shows is that 16% of the total number of Republicans who requested these ballots for 2016 did not vote in 2012, rather than that 16% of ballot requests from people who didn't vote in 2012 are Republican (same goes for the other two, I just chose Republicans as my example).

Ahha, you're right, that doesn't add up to 100%.

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

I think when it's all said and done, CD-2 will be closer than past years but we are going to laugh at ourselves for thinking Trump could win it.

I agree. Obama won it by 8% in 2012. I can see Clinton winning by 4-5%, an increase in support for Republicans but still a comfortable Democratic victory.

Starting to pick up nicely

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 2h2 hours ago

With a slew of updates today from #APElecRsch and states, at least 410,933 people have voted in the 2016 election http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784470654091419648

According to Nate Cohn/Upshot, at this point in mail voting, Romney was up 24. Trump is only up 1 among those who have returned mail ballots.

That's not quite right-- he said that his model predicts that TRUMP would have been up +24 if the same exact people who voted early by mail by this point in 2012 also were the only ones who voted early by mail so far this year.

So presumably Romney would have been up even more...

Based off of that chart, it looks like the second district will trend towards Trump, but definitely not enough for him to win it.

Hillary is working Trump on the ground in NC

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article106618097.html

Wisconsin: Numbers compiled by the state Elections Commission show that as of Friday, 70,740 absentee ballots have been returned statewide. Of those, 22,511 were from either Milwaukee or Dane counties, or about 31 percent of the total cast statewide. By comparison, in the heavily Republican suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, only 6,420 early votes have been cast.

Are there comparable 2008 or 2012 data for ballots cast as of this point for WI?

The current map of early voting by party this year:

()

Dems 34
Reps 29
Began 127
No votes 348

Is there data on what % of eligible voters have cast a vote in each State?

‏@LatinoDecisions
Stunning partisan reversal among Cuban Americans in Hialeah, FL:
Voter reg thru 2012: +13 Rep
Voter reg in 2016: +12 Dem
via @electionsmith

()

Seems like Cubans are turning against him in FL.

()

New Democrats registration outnumber Republicans registration in most age category in NC.

Nice. If this holds, we can see North Carolina become Dem > Indie > GOP in registration in the long run. Bad sign for Republicans there.

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

Florida's gone for Trump, especially after yesterday.

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

RIP Likely R Florida

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party (http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512481794)

That could be worth 3-4 points. A gap that big is a structural shift in the electorate. About 8.5 million voted in the 2012 election in FL

Florida VBM requests: Democrats narrow Republican edge to 80K

GOP: 1,126,999 (41.7%)
DEM: 1,046,634 (38.7%)
IND: 461,857 (17.1%)
Others: 65,717 (2.4%)

What does this even mean though? Are these last minute forms being dumped, or are they already baked in the numbers?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-voter-registration-campaign-20160914-story.html
If it's baked in already, they have already been losing ground.

wrong.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

10/09/2016 10:04AM

FL Vote-by-Mail (Voted)
Total 28412 votes
REP 13338 (46.94%) | DEM 9659 (33.99%)

Still 12.95% ahead :p

Romney(October 16th 2012): Rep + 4%
TRUMP (October 9th 2012): Rep + 12.95%

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent..  Republican +4%

sample sizes m'dear

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

He bizarrely thinks Des Moines is in Dallas County (it's actually in Polk).

Also says that CD-1 is a good representation for Southeast Wisconsin. That being said, mistakes happen.

I haven't seen it.

VIRGINIA: "The Fairfax County's elections office has seen 6,000 votes cast by absentee voters as of Friday, 2,000 more votes compared to the same time four years ago, according to spokeswoman Lisa Connors."

http://patch.com/virginia/annandale/absentee-voting-underway-fairfax-county-6-000-have-voted-friday


Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted Michael McDonald
Seeing this in @ArlingtonVotes, too. No party reg in VA, but this looks similar to NC pattern of high Dem interest

Trump is going to make Fairfax and the other NOVA counties look like Brooklyn.

Florida's voter registration deadline extended by 1 day in court (to October 12) after Clinton's campaign brought suit against Gov. Scott

https://www.dropbox.com/s/77qsoirtd67o9ff/show_temp.pl-6.pdf?dl=0

Sounds like there is going to be a hearing on Wednesday and the court could rule to extend registration even further.

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 461,583

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Pre-debates votes cast, number of votes returned _ days before the 2016 election (purple). 2012=gray

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/11/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-debate-early-voting/
http://imgur.com/a/qNo2M
https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/785821423193366528?lang=en

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Florida ballot requests: Dems have narrowed the GOP vote-by-mail advantage to 68,000

GOP: 1,133,754
Dem: 1,065,059
Ind: 473,902
Other: 66,665

Early votes counted:

GOP: 21,106
Dem: 18,419
Ind: 7,290
Other: 1,591

Would be interesting to know, of the GOP ballots, how much are Latino/Cuban/Hispanic.

democrats are weakened in the rust belt...and soaring at the coast states.

Huh? Not seeing any issues in the rust belt, other than Iowa. Ohio I believe cut back on the absentee/early voting times. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin look pretty good!

So, 0.3% of the expected votes have already been cast.

Yay !

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/785878553749557249

North Carolina
- Black registration up 6% since 2012
- Latino registration up 50% since 2012

Florida
- 10/3 to 10/9, Dems outnumbered GOP mail ballot requests 2:1

Nevada
- Latino registration up 24% since 2012

The Latino surge is real!!!! :D

Hillary's going to win NC, and it's going to be more Dem than FL.

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 509,658

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016


People are voting as Trump is down big time!  Expect the rate to speed up the next couple of weeks.

Looks like IA is starting to slowly correct itself.

Maine is looking pretty good for the democrats!

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NC nearly tied

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http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-200-million-voters/

42.6% of new and updated registrants lean Democratic vs 29% lean GOP and 28% lean Independent.

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Early in-person voting started today in Ohio so we get to see the Hillary ground game do their thing

All of the above is true, but if there is a haircut across the board for Trump it's going to take out Georgia.

Florida VBM ballot requests:

GOP: 1,122,963 (41.0%)
DEM: 1,065,295 (39.0%)
IND: 480,200 (17.6%)
Other: 66,142 (2.4%)

Florida VBM Votes cast:

GOP: 43,409 (42.7%)
DEM: 40,093 (39.4%)
IND: 14,929 (14.7%)
Other: 3,305 (3.2%)

The Democrats have narrowed the traditional Republican advantage in VBM requests + votes cast to around 60K. That slim advantage is nowhere near enough, in my opinion, for the Republicans to carry Florida considering the major Democratic advantage during in-person early voting

On the other hand, the Republicans still have a glimmer of hope in Iowa. Yesterday, the ballot requests and votes received looked like this:

Ballots Requested

DEM: 128,421
GOP: 95,888
IND: 57,190
Other: 695

Ballots Cast

DEM: 56,553
GOP: 27,933
IND: 18,416
Other: 228

Now Clinton has a 90,000 vote cushion to work with from 2012 but the Dem ballot requests are still lagging significantly from 2012, where Obama won the state before election day

I also believe with the Florida voter registration deadline moved back to October 18, the VBM request deadline might also be moved back to the same date, but we'll have to see the details of the ruling

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/786240169338777600
Cool stat, regarding recently registered voters, specifically ones in the last week of registration.

Florida: Of the 151k voters  registered Oct1-Oct9, 2012, 68.5% voted in Nov 6 election.
Of the state's 12.5m reg voters, 68.3% voted .

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/786273435278127104

Party affiliation of early voters (estimated for Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia). Comparisons can't really be made to 2012 yet, since in person early voting dominates in Georgia, North Carolina.

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It's not just moderates, Republican enthusiasm is just about non-existent in Franklin County atm.

Looking good in IA, WI, VA and MI.

since hillary never really needed OH but would take it anway .....liberals can take this relaxed.

florida and NC are muuuuch more important.

If moderate Republicans are the reason, shouldn't Hamilton see a bigger drop-off than 3%? At the same time, I can't deduce at this point whether this is the first bad sign for Hillary in OH. Absentee is dominated by Republicans in most states.

I'm not just talking about moderates, it's Republicans in general (also the Cincinnati suburbs are home to some pretty right-wing Republicans, very different from what you'd find in Franklin County).  Also, I was just talking about Franklin County.

Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter that Clinton should make pretty substantial gains at Columbus' suburbs. These people are Kasich Republicans.

   Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:   568,678

The spreadsheet updated

As of 10/12

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  592,936

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

101,634 have voted in Florida
117,754 have voted in Iowa
49,647 have voted in Michigan
67,079 have voted in Virginia

                       Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:   654,239


Update: 658,202

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

it's particularly inaccurate as hashtag anything skews heavily towards younger voters. how many people over 55 have a twitter account? over 65?

I agree that it's really skewed but it's hard to gauge the magnitude of it because Twitter doesn't collect age as far as I know. Early voting is dominated by Democrats in most states so while it likely isn't 75-25 in favor of Hillary, it's reasonable to believe she's definitely received much higher than Trump.

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

He's actually underperforming Romney and McCain in both of these states so these are not good numbers for him.

Yeah, he's embarrassingly underperforming Romney in both of these states. As of 10/7 he was probably underperforming Romney by 23 points in North Carolina and Clinton has almost caught up to Trump in vote by my requests in Florida. Obama was never close before in person voting started in either state.

Too bad the rest of Wisconsin doesn't have early voting like the city of Milwaukee. They started on September 24. I have off this week, would have love to have voted early. Have to wait until October 24th and rush after I get off work since they close a half hour after.

It was up to the local clerk in each municipality, I think. It's pretty much opened 100% right now in Dane County.

As of early 10/13

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  756,027


NC as of 10/13. Republican turn out is WAY DOWN!

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Woof. Those numbers are brutal. Surely this would be a disaster downballot if it continues?

Republicans only take the lead only 1 week before in-person early-voting starts, ouch!

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

I agree, at least, don't think we need daily updates of slight movements. Would rather read more detailed analysis from election experts, and if we want daily analysis, we can follow https://twitter.com/ElectProject

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Because it's apples and oranges. In the Austrian presidential election, far-right winger Hofer won the election day vote 52-48 (which was 85% of the total vote), but left-winger Van der Bellen won the postal vote (15% of the vote) by 65-35, giving him the small win.

Just because the Dems do well with a handful of requested postal ballots, it doesn't mean this will be an indicator for a good election outcome for them ...

If the trend continues with 70-80% of the postal vote in, that's a different thing. But hyping around with 1% of postal ballots cast is ridiculous.

When Republican margins are built on these damn postal votes going massively for them, then yes it is ok to follow this kind of stuff.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

Republicans tend to be ahead by alot in Florida absentees, which doesn't seem to be the case this time around.

The absence of a functioning campaign to drive absentee voting would mean that a good chunk of that 50% drop-off simply transitions to in-person voting, rather than dropping out of the election.

Iowa and Ohio are the only states where the early trend doesn't look good. Democrats registration is outpacing Republicans' in most swing states.

Absentee heavily skews older people. In 2008, FL Republicans had the advantage 51-32% in absentee requests (and Obama still won FL by almost 3%). It's too early to tell but to say Democrats don't have a favorable trend right now is being far too pessimistic.

Robby Mook conf call today:

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  14m14 minutes ago
Mook says Clinton campaign set to break “vote by mail records in Florida”

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  12m12 minutes ago
Mook says Hispanic ballot requests in NC are up 33% compared to 2012. White requests are down.

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  9m9 minutes ago
In conference call, Robby Mook says total vote in 2016 will break records. Relevant amid talk of dispiriting campaign driving down turnout.

We deposited our ballots today with our county election commission. Earliest we've ever voted. Three votes (Myself, wife and adult son) for the straight Democratic ticket.

yeah... there's not a chance this is a low turnout election.

as far as i know republicans are down hard from 2012 in FL und NC and dems are again increasing their numbers in registration spikes in the final week.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article108036537.html

North Carolina
- white votes down more than 1/3
- black votes down a bit

Ohio
- bigger declines in requests in the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin as posted earlier
- the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent.

Florida VBM:

Ballots Requested + Votes

GOP: 1,091,602 + 83,646 = 1,175,248 (41.0%)
DEM: 1,039,497 + 77,817 = 1,117,314 (39.0%)
IND: 473,708 + 29,378 = 503,086 (17.6%)
Others: 64,440 + 6,016 = 70,456 (2.4%)

Yup, I've thought this for a long time.

They'll probably update it one more time today but in Florida VBM, Democrats have cut the total ballots requested disadvantage to 48,000 (42,000 fewer ballots requested and 6,000 fewer ballots cast)

When is the deadline for this?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/fla-early-ballots-and-voter-registration-numbers-show-democrats-surging-in-fla-106392

Among voted absentee ballots

GOP ahead by 1.9% now in Florida. It was a 3.9% advantage at the same point in 2012. And they had a 3% advantage on Thursday, so they're dropping fast.

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  900,994 or 1.9% of 2012 advance voting.

Florida is at 310,760 or 6.5% of 2012 advance voting.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Ultimately, IA and OH won't matter so long as Clinton wins NC and FL.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

Safe Clinton

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

To compare, there was little net change in voter registration numbers from 2008 to 2012 in TX

Wow, this might corroborate only a 4% lead for Trump.

Yeah, no way Trump is winning Texas by double-digits

I would like to see whether someone could pull up Arizona voter registration numbers from 2008 to 2012 to now to see if there is a similar spike

this will do significant damage to Trump's popular vote margin.

I have said for a long time that Texas will be close this election, and that Trump has been causing not only a collapse among Middle-Class Latinos in Texas that typically only vote 56-44 Democrat, but additionally among Anglos in the suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, not to even mention evangelical Christian ladies....

If the Democratic Party had actually put resources into voter registration in Texas this year, there is a likely chance the state would be a tossup as opposed to a narrow Trump lead.

Update:

 Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,170,904
and 2.5% of 2012 total early vote!

"Late Night Numbers from Florida: Older Whites Dominating Early Vote-by-Mail, but Democrats Holding their Own"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/late-night-numbers-from-florida-older-whites-dominating-early-vote-by-mail-but-democrats-holding-their-own/

"Of the roughly 206k voters 61 and over who have cast VBM thus far, 87% are white. What is surprising, however, is of these 179k older white voters who’ve cast VBM thus far,  less than half (47%) are Republicans."

But that is still less than 1% of the expected total vote (120-140 million).

The early vote analysis won't get meaningful until about 1 week before the election ...

Florida VBM numbers + votes. This could get updated again today but I'll post what the site has. The number of votes cast increases as the number of ballots requested decreases (when ballots are turned in).

Ballots requested:

GOP: 1,016,177
DEM: 979,787
IND: 458,744
Other: 60,466

Votes:

GOP: 173,451
DEM: 166,667
IND: 61,955
Other: 11,632

Democrats have cut the Republican advantage in total VBM ballots (requests + votes) to 43K out of over 2.9 million. Combined, these are the numbers:

GOP: 1,189,628 (40.6%)
DEM: 1,146,454 (39.1%)
IND: 520,699 (17.8%)
Other: 72,078 (2.5%)

While 2.9 million requests and votes seem to be a lot, it's still only just 1/3rd of the expected vote of 9 million in FL.

Not telling us a lot yet ... even if let's say Democrats are leading by 2 among requested ballots or Republicans, we still don't know how the Independents are voting.

Iowa's early vote is going much better for the Republicans. They have cut the Democratic edge in ballot requests to 28K

DEM: 150,450
GOP: 122,583
IND: 69,737
Other: 864

Democrats have turned their ballots in at a higher rate. These numbers ARE combined within the total ballot requests, IIRC.

DEM: 78,271
GOP: 43,165
IND: 27,680
Other: 353

The GOP won the VBM balloting by 4% in 2012. Right now, they are only 1.5% ahead and that lead is narrowing. What remains to be seen is whether Democrats who normally vote early in person or on Election Day are deciding to VBM or whether Democrats have increased their share of the electorate by getting new registrants to vote early. I suspect it is the latter

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

True. With Branstad, Grassley, and Ernst lining up the R machine solidly behind Trump, this is one state where we'll see what 2016 might have looked like if the R candidate had an actual get-out-the-vote effort of his own.

I don't know how much endorsements boost the margins. But it could partially explain why Ohio seems to give a better chance for Hillary than Iowa, with Kasich's refusal to endorse Trump.

Any new updates on nc?

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Florida absentee status in 2016 to a comparable point in time in 2012

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but but but turnouts going to be low because all of my facebook friends keep yammering about how bad both candidates are!

In person voting starts Thursday.

To follow up with an update,

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Northern Virginia 55.60%
Southwest Virginia 22.96%
Capital Region 14.94%
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula 12.84%
Southside Virginia 9.69%
Valley of Virginia 4.60%
Piedmont -0.23%
Hampton Roads -8.17%
 
2012
60,612
 
2016
74,461
 
Change
22.85%

Maricopa County (AZ) voter registration statistics

January 2013

GOP: 707,205
DEM: 532,399
IND: 638,229

March 2016

GOP: 708,941
DEM: 532,946
IND: 733,577
LIB: 17,400
Green: 2,109

October 8, 2016 (most recent information)

GOP: 755,808
DEM: 601,248
IND: 737,983
LIB: 19,514
Green: 3,353

Democratic registration has increased by 69K in Maricopa since March while Republican registration has increased 47K and Independent registration has increased 4K. This is an improvement for the Democrats but unlikely to structurally change the electorate. Sixty percent of the Arizona vote in 2012 came from Maricopa County. The Republican advantage in Maricopa in March 2016 was roughly equivalent to what it was at the end of the 2012 election cycle. There are 100K more voters with no party affiliation in Maricopa since 2012.

Pima County (AZ) voter registration statistics

January 2013

DEM: 187,577
GOP: 154,996
IND: 151,470

March 2016

DEM: 179,043
GOP: 148,215
IND: 159,929

October 8, 2016

DEM: 203,767
GOP: 161,871
IND: 165,519

Democratic and Republican voter rolls declined in Pima from the last election cycle to March 2016. However, Democrats have increased their share of the electorate by 16K from 2012 while Republicans have improved by 7K and independents have improved by 14K.

Overall, in the two largest Arizona counties, Dems have added 86K voters since 2012 while Republicans have added 54K and independents have added 114K. This represents a narrowing of the Republican structural advantage in the state. However, the Republicans still have a major edge, unless the independents largely vote Democratic. Mitt Romney won Arizona by 208K in 2012, and the Democrats have improved their standing a little bit, but more work will be required to turn Arizona into a perennial swing state

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

A lot of tea partiers do as well. NOVA Green (if he's around) probably knows about this more than I do

Interesting, thanks.

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning :)

Steve Schale, Obama's 2008 Florida campaign manager and 2012 senior adviser, on the Florida VBM results so far:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/787404801365737477

"Looking at these VBM returns, there is definitely an enthusiasm problem in Florida...but it's not with Democrats"

Congrats and thanks :)

I will request mine too soon and mail it back in late November.

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Note: Nevada early voting begins on 10/22/16. I am pretty sure what they mean by "early voting" is early votes + absentee ballots. So in Nevada's case, the Republicans' lead may be because early voting hasn't started yet.

Yep, and Georgia will quickly swing to the Democrats starting Monday with in person early voting.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196

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Compared to 10/11, Democrats losing small ground in Iowa, North Carolina. They are gaining small ground in Michigan, and gaining fast in Florida.

Iowa and Ohio looking good for Trump... north carolina & florida still republican advantage but not by much. Anyone see any surprises in the data so far that may play well for Trump?

Hopefully none.

However, IA is still looking better for Trump, albeit by a much smaller margin than earlier and OH is still too early to tell, we'll see how it sits this time next week.

Although I am flattered to be name-checked, I don't consider myself to be an expert in either Tea Party voter registration habits, let alone Latino Millennials.

However, I will say that Latino Millennials, like many other Millennials typically tend to not register for either party ticket, although obviously there are many large states, including Texas where voters do not register by political party.

Still, there are multiple stories from many states regarding Latino Millennials and their lack of enthusiasm in the current Presidential Election, despite a strong dislike for Trump as the Republican nominee, including many voters that do not identify with either major Party.

http://keranews.org/post/latino-millennials-looking-have-say-years-presidential-election

http://www.demos.org/blog/10/13/16/ideolog%C3%ADa-latino-millennials-challenge-political-parties

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-column/2016/09/16/latino-millennials-play-key-role-election-researcher-says

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/latinos-and-millennials-targeted-to-register-to-vote

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/10/11/democrats-maintain-edge-as-party-more-concerned-for-latinos-but-views-similar-to-2012/

Most of y'all don't likely have the patience and stamina to look through even a handful of articles that I posted, but:

la realidad es que la gran mayoría de los latinos del Milenio no se ve una diferencia importante entre los dos partidos políticos cuando se trata de dividir a las familias separadas a ambos lados de la frontera.

As I posted almost a year ago, Obama is still perceived as the "Deporter in Chief, that has dramatically expanded deportations for mothers and fathers of Millennials, simply for charges such as possession of small amounts of marijuana or first time DUI offenses, that for the vast majority of Anglos in Texas would warrant simply a few days in jail.

Under the aggressive policies of the Obama justice department that considers individuals that are married to American nationals, children born in America attending public schools, that haven't been back in their home country for 15 years to be "Criminal Aliens" and "Felons" that has separated and divided families, mainly because the US Government and politicians have refused to address this issue since Reagan back in the Mid- '80s.

We add to that, the fact that Clinton has done little since the primaries to actually speak to the broader interests and concerns of young Americans, unlike Bernie Sanders, when it comes to items such as a living wage, free community college tuition, and additionally Latinos have been disproportionately impacted by the elective war overseas in Iraq and military service enlistment in general, and it is no wonder that Latino Millennials are extremely skeptical of her candidacy, regardless of how much they despise Trump.

There is now a major body of polling from multiple states that appears to clearly indicate that Clinton's weakness among Millennials is especially significant when it comes to Latino Millennials.

I don't understand, Dems 57-32 seems like a big advantage (according to NBC/TargetSmart). How big an advantage do they need in Ohio?

The issue is where the vote is in OH. If it's mostly Cuyahoga, then that's not great. But if it's places like Hamilton and Montgomery, where Obama won off the back of the early vote, then that's great. But again, it's still too early to determine what the OH numbers are saying.

Early vote numbers are not terribly significant until about a week or two before election day.

I don't know the accuracy of this blog so take it with a grain of salt. It appears to be from a conservative blogger in 2012.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HfIOpQQkNXuoBe1eW0fwt4NxMvH523jkW85npX02zHA/edit#gid=0

http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2012/09/absentee-ballot-data-not-looking-good.html

County     Total AB Requests     D           R              D            R         Difference
Total     2008   1,386,683    477,388  260,416    34.43%  18.78%     15.65%
            2012   1,372,336    390,691  298,403    28.47%  21.74%      6.72%

It appears to me that the trend is that Democrats are requesting fewer and fewer AB requests every year. So it would make sense to me that with Ohio being a nail-biter right now, AB requests are down compared to 2012. (Obama won OH by 3% in 2012)

So to make up for their AB requests decline, they have to substantially outperform Republicans on early voting in order to hold them off from Republicans' election day comeback.

Thank you! Also, do more republicans vote on election day than democrats correct that is why democrats try and get the early vote out?

Of course, but since it began, it's worth observing some trends :)

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):

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- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

Nevada is structurally a Democratic state

Yes but muh Washoe will hand it to Trump.

CO will start mailing ballots to all 3 Mio. RV today.

New voters will have the possibility of same-day registration on Nov. 8

This should give us a good look at turnout even before election day ...

Do there numbers include Dead People??

There is never any dead people within the numbers. That is just a dumb republican meme.

You do realize Democrats have been busted for doing this right?

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