Talk Elections

44% Evan Bayh (D)
40% Todd Young (R)
5% Lucy Brenton (L)

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http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race

Oooooooh so this race has tightened.

Todd Young's response to this poll was probably: "I was a former marine"

Underwhelmingly lead, but I do think Bayh will pull it off at the end. I know many Democrats are not happy with some of Bayh's stances, but he is another seat for us!

I think Indiana will be:

President: Trump +9
Senate: Bayh +9

It's competitive, to be sure, but Bayh has the edge for now.

Yeah, this and the monmouth poll really show how skewed those Senate Majority PAC internals were. I still think this is Lean D, but it's not much of a Lean.

"The poll, the first of three for WTHR/Howey Politics between now and the Nov. 8 election, was conducted of 600 likely voters Sept. 6-8, including 360 landline users and 240 cellphone users, with a margin of error of 4.0%. The sample consisted of 40% independents, 31% Republican and 28% Democratic,"
http://howeypolitics.com

MOE 4.0% is suspiciously high. Similarly suspicious is the party registration.

After his primary debate the joke was that all of his sentences were "Noun verb, Marine!"
Great poll for Young, it seems if he can keep in the current course he could pull it off.

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.

Probably not.

Yes it is plenty of time.

This will be a squeaker

Bayh will win. I live right next door to IN and Hoosiers love Bayh

I live in Indiana
I live in Indiana and I can tell you it's mixed feelings. This is the first time he has had a real opponent since 1988. Although, my county was one of the five or so that voted against him in 04 so who knows.

After some thoughts,
Todd Young definitely can win. It's going to be close, very close, a 50-50 race.

That's why the Dems are pulling $$$ out of OH and FL to protect McGinty, Cortez-Masto and Bayh.

The undecided are definitely R leaning. So, this race is essentially a toss-up, I would just like another poll to confirm.

Like I've been saying, Tossup/Tilt D.

This was my prediction all along. It will be quite embarrassing for Bayh and Indiana democrats when he loses... albeit narrowly

Bayh isnt losing this. Pence approvals are low and he's not popular in his home state. Bayh will take it like Donnelly, 5-6 points.

This is going to go down to the wire.  The country is much more polarized than it was when Bayh was last on the ballot. 

Yup. If the national Republicans spend enough money on attack ads they can probably paint Bayh as a generic D. His appeal/chance of winning relies on enough Republican voters seeing Bayh as different from the Democratic party as a whole.

Oh but the Republicans should clearly defund Indiana because it is a hopeless case and instead spend the money in states where they are facing a uphill climb from the top of the ticket. ::)

Lesson for the wise, money flows like water and Indiana is the path of least resistance. Nobody cares what your last name is anymore.

 If Warner's near defeat wasn't enough shock therapy, than perhaps Bayh losing 50-48 will be. Young has two months to convince undecided Republicans in a state that has never been too kind to the Clintons, to vote for a Marine (:P) over a Clinton shill dropped back in after ditching the state.

Strickland was the Clinton shill and he will lose decisively for what he said about Scalia

He should of kept the owners on McConnell's obstruction. And he would be in the position Bayh would be in. Tossup/IN.

We'll see who is right in November but, remember, many of the people discounting Bayh discounted the prospects of Donnelly defeating Mourdock in 2012. If surnames weren't important anymore, Casey wouldn't walk to victory in 2012, Warner's non-campaign in 2014 would have gone down in flames etc. These things still matter...

WI, IL, IN are safe Dem to me anyways and Dems need 1 more flip.

Donnelly was going to lose until Mourdocks gaffes.

Actually, I almost cited Casey's 2012 performance in my post. It was rather unimpressive. He basically hid behind the shield of Obama's margin with a slight over-performance in NE PA and Lehigh Valley, accounting for the slightly higher percentage. He lost his support in West Central, NW and SW PA he had in 2006.

If the Casey name meant something to those "Casey Democrats", who voted for him and for Rendell in 2006, and positively adored his father, then Casey would have won them in 2012 as well. Instead it was a party line vote with a slight hometown boost in his home region. In PA, that is all you need, but any Democrat could do that in 2012 barring a really crappy candidate.

However, this is not PA we are talking about here.

It is a long time Republican state (2008 aside), that will be carried probably by double digits by Trump of all people. The Democratic nominee is viewed by most Republicans to be a crook and the Democratic Senate candidate has decades of ties to said nominee, ditched the state after casting an unpopular vote to cash in Clinton style, and has not had a serious opponent since Reagan was President.


Being a Clinton shill is viable in Ohio, assuming you plan to coast to victory on a potential Hillary win in the state. However, that does not apply to Indiana.

Now to be sure, I expect Bayh will keep it much closer than anyone else and perhaps just in that victory has been achieved for the Democrats, diverting resources. But his name is not going to give him immunity from the political reality.


This is like saying Wisconsin was Safe Republican in 2012 once Tommy Thompson survived his primary.

Bayh definitely doesn't have this in the bag, and Young could win for sure, but a lot of people seem way too confident that Young will win.

Are we really ignoring the cross tabs I posted?

I would think that if Hillary were way ahead, Young would have the perfect issue to pound Bayh on.  "Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President.  No matter how much of a nice guy Evan Bayh is, no matter how moderate he is, the first vote he will cast after being sworn is will be for a Democratic Majority Leader.  Do you Hoosiers really want Hillary Clinton to have a blank check?"

Kaine is a consensus choice as Veep and very populist like Bayh and for Dem Leader whom Kerry should of picked Gephardt.

Did you just call Evan Bayh a populist ???

Both are tossups IMO.