Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 09, 2016, 09:03:05 pm



Title: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 09, 2016, 09:03:05 pm
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE

Very, very strange. 538 likes them though...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on September 09, 2016, 09:05:28 pm
Biggest pile of junk I've ever seen. Their sample is 56% male, which I guess is one of the perils of online polling. Amazing that they don't have Trump up with crossstabs that favorable.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: dspNY on September 09, 2016, 09:17:35 pm
Complete junk. Nate Silver is stupid to add these IMO

Trump +9 in FL
Clinton +17 in KS
Clinton going from tied in AK to down 26, neither of which are right

A waste of bandwidth


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 09, 2016, 09:53:52 pm
Oh my god, look at those sample sizes :O

Releasing a crosstab with fewer than 100 respondents is stupid. This is even moreso.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Noted Irishman on September 09, 2016, 10:10:02 pm
Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 09, 2016, 10:13:43 pm
Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.

Yup. His attitude to the hilarious LA/USC poll is really off the mark. I don't care whether you're comfortable with it being odd as if people concerned about that poll are putting Silver's needs first.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on September 09, 2016, 10:22:24 pm
WTH IS THIS ATROCITY?

Really, Nate!?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Bernie 2020 on September 09, 2016, 10:30:42 pm
Well, if it's good enough for 538 it's good enough for the Atlas database :)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on September 09, 2016, 10:32:21 pm
Well, if it's good enough for 538 it's good enough for the Atlas database :)

No. This is ridiculous. NM for Trump and SD for Clinton? At the same time, he's losing Colorado and NV handily? This makes no sense.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on September 09, 2016, 11:02:20 pm
I KNEW HAPPY SOUTH DAKOTA FARMERS WOULD DELIVER THE STATE FOR HILLARY!!!!!!!

/s

Now do you guys believe me that Nate's lost it, and really isn't doing much other than making a glorified polling map?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Lok on September 09, 2016, 11:05:03 pm
And we thought we have seen some bad polling...

This is the biggest pile of horse sh** I have seen when it comes to polling.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 09, 2016, 11:51:01 pm
I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver. If only the rest of this country had listened. If only...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Kempros on September 09, 2016, 11:57:22 pm
Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on September 10, 2016, 12:08:42 am
I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver. If only the rest of this country had listened. If only...

#Accolades


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 10, 2016, 12:32:33 am
Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?

Because they're tiny sample sizes, some are calling landlines only...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 10, 2016, 05:18:59 am
Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.
I disagree. He's using them to tack onto a blended sample of data for the state when he runs his projections. He's well aware of the MOE and the tendency for the poll in isolation to be suboptimal, especially with the tiny sample sizes.

The polls are instructive as data points when added to other data points and probably more instructive than Reuters/Ipsos and Washington Post/Survey Monkey as the data is over a week span as opposed to a 1-3 week span (Reuters), or 4 week span (SM).

You could recreate a more representative sample by compounding the surveys into 1, 2, 3 week surveys if you wanted to like Reuters and SM does.

You can likely extrapolate the Reuters/Ispos numbers over a week if you wanted to at this point, but solely if you had access to the underlying data. Reuters doesn't give us this. Google does, down to the individualized weights of the individualized survey respondent.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 10, 2016, 06:22:36 am
Clinton trailing by more in FL and NC than she is in MT? Junk!


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 10, 2016, 08:14:59 am
#WhatsUpWithDC


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Maxwell on September 10, 2016, 10:17:04 am
no undecideds? pure trash.

I mean, has anyone ever heard of the concept Garbage In, Garbage Out? If you get information from bad and obviously junky sources, guess what? your conclusions are going to be bad and junky.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ExtremeConservative on September 10, 2016, 10:31:03 am
Which one is a summary of the results?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 10, 2016, 10:44:42 am
no undecideds? pure trash.
There are, but they "removed" them.

But I agree: all those 50-state online polls seems to have problem with weightening and too small samples. They are may be usefull for complex models, but they are not for average users.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 10, 2016, 10:47:06 am
Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 10, 2016, 06:52:14 pm
no undecideds? pure trash.

I mean, has anyone ever heard of the concept Garbage In, Garbage Out? If you get information from bad and obviously junky sources, guess what? your conclusions are going to be bad and junky.
What makes the sources "junky" to you? Obviously, internet polling is more experimental right now, but it's more likely than not the wave of the future.

These numbers are helpful as data points in poorly polled states, if you put them in aggregate with the other polls of the state. I could see how Silver would use them. If you add the four weeks, you're no different than the Reuters or Survey Monkey polls and have something which, if blended together, can get you a decent poll.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 10, 2016, 07:02:16 pm
Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?

Depending on the pollster, "somewhat likely" is somewhat unlikely to make the cut.  Some pollsters include only "certain to vote", others may include "very likely" as well. 


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: NOVA Green on September 10, 2016, 07:14:24 pm
Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?

Because they're tiny sample sizes, some are calling landlines only...

There are a bunch of crappy polls floating around, however Texas does appear to closer than in quite a few GE cycles, and RI will likely swing Republican this year in a State that when heavily Bernie in the primaries (yuuuge upset) with a fairly dovish political history, large population of European Ethnic backgrounds, historical large manufacturing sector that has vanished over the past 30-40 years, and additionally has the largest population of both Catholics and Italian-Americans in the country, that Trump would be doing relatively well against a Democrat that still has a fairly Hawkish Foreign Policy reputation, a strong history of being a "Free Trade" Democrat, in a state that is one of the last remaining "New Deal Democrat" states in the nation.

Although, I don't believe that Hillary win will Texas, nor will Trump win Rhode Island, I do expect significant swings in both states this November.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on September 11, 2016, 03:12:09 pm
Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?

I think the theory is that people tend to lie about these things, overstating their likelihood to vote. So far from everyone who says "I'll definitely vote" does and those who are only somewhat likely are actually very unlikely.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 03:23:41 pm
538 crunched the DC numbers.. They may be close to accurate if they took that leading 2 for Trump and added the 20% to Clinton. (Obviously, the sample sizes are hideous).

AUG. 31-SEP. 6   Google Consumer Surveys    66   LV   
Clinton 48%
Trump 22%
Johnson 9%

AUG. 24-30   Google Consumer Surveys   67   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 26%
Johnson 10%

AUG. 17-23   Google Consumer Surveys   
58   LV   
Clinton 54%
Trump 22%
Johnson 8%

AUG. 10-16   Google Consumer Surveys   54   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 25%
Johnson 6%


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on September 11, 2016, 03:25:50 pm
538 crunched the DC numbers.. They may be close to accurate if they took that leading 2 for Trump and added the 20% to Clinton. (Obviously, the sample sizes are hideous).

AUG. 31-SEP. 6   Google Consumer Surveys    66   LV   
Clinton 48%
Trump 22%
Johnson 9%

AUG. 24-30   Google Consumer Surveys   67   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 26%
Johnson 10%

AUG. 17-23   Google Consumer Surveys   
58   LV   
Clinton 54%
Trump 22%
Johnson 8%

AUG. 10-16   Google Consumer Surveys   54   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 25%
Johnson 6%
That's embarrassingly bad. Did they just not interview black people at all?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 11, 2016, 03:33:12 pm
Even among white people in DC, I doubt Trump will even get double digit support lol


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 11, 2016, 07:21:46 pm
Even among white people in DC, I doubt Trump will even get double digit support lol
We should convince CNN to commission exit polls there :P


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: emailking on September 12, 2016, 11:07:04 am
Now do you guys believe me that Nate's lost it, and really isn't doing much other than making a glorified polling map?

Not at all. Data is data. You don't throw it out because you don't think it's right. It's given a low weight in the database because of the small sample sizes. He throws out polls that are believed to be fake, but not polls that are real with seemingly strange results. If you can't understand the rationale in this, well I'm sorry. But that's problem with you and your understanding of statistics, rather than with Nate and his application of it.

I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver.

You discredited yourself by pretending to love Trump for the better part of a year.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: StatesPoll on September 12, 2016, 12:50:53 pm

I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 12, 2016, 02:34:47 pm

I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Lok on September 12, 2016, 04:55:08 pm

I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)

He didn't adjust the numbers at all in the polls-plus part...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: StatesPoll on September 13, 2016, 01:36:45 am

I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?

Why not?

PA ( 20 ) - WI (10) = +10  ♬


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 13, 2016, 01:39:23 am

I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?

Why not?

PA ( 20 ) - WI (10) = +10  ♬

Have you just gone into self-aware self-parody?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 13, 2016, 11:30:11 am
Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: StatesPoll on September 13, 2016, 12:00:05 pm
Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.

why you exaggerate TRUMP's leads in New Mexico?
New Mexico: Aug. 31-Sep. 6  Google Consumer Surveys, 215 LV
TRUMP 30% | Hillary 27% | Johnson 18%
and your liberal hero Nate Silver adjusted as +3% (same as results.)
;)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 13, 2016, 04:19:20 pm
Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.

why you exaggerate TRUMP's leads in New Mexico?
New Mexico: Aug. 31-Sep. 6  Google Consumer Surveys, 215 LV
TRUMP 30% | Hillary 27% | Johnson 18%
and your liberal hero Nate Silver adjusted as +3% (same as results.)
;)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus


I meant this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Maxwell on September 13, 2016, 04:23:45 pm
ACtually decided to dig through and find out that - they literally have 21% undecided.

My god is there worse trash in the world?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Castro on September 14, 2016, 02:20:17 pm
538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Boston Bread on September 14, 2016, 02:22:14 pm
538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1
I can't even


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: KingSweden on September 14, 2016, 02:23:15 pm
538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1

Good lord


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 14, 2016, 02:38:55 pm
538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1

That's a 30 point swing in West Virginia in a week.

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: bilaps on September 14, 2016, 03:06:38 pm
At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Snek! on September 14, 2016, 03:10:55 pm
At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 14, 2016, 03:40:01 pm
At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Snek! on September 14, 2016, 03:41:35 pm
At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
What's the map look like?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 14, 2016, 04:08:42 pm
At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
What's the map look like?
()

And, assuming Trump gets NE-2 and ME-2, NH becomes the tipping point. Given what we know about it, this would clearly produce an anti-2000 result :P


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on September 22, 2016, 02:05:43 am
Seek help.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on September 22, 2016, 02:24:28 am
National Topline
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35
Johnson: 8
Undecided: 31

Alaska
Trump: 39
Clinton: 21

Alabama
Trump: 55
Clinton: 18

Arkansas
Clinton: 36
Trump: 35

Arizona
Clinton: 37
Trump: 32

California
Clinton: 46
Trump: 28

Colorado
Clinton: 40
Trump: 28

Connecticut
Clinton: 39
Trump: 32

DC
Clinton: 43
Trump: 28

Delaware
Clinton: 41
Trump: 30

Florida
Trump: 43
Clinton: 30

Georgia
Trump: 45
Clinton: 30

Hawaii
Clinton: 43
Trump: 32

Iowa
Trump: 31
Clinton: 30

Idaho
Trump: 44
Clinton: 19

Illinois
Clinton: 39
Trump: 29

Indiana
Trump: 32
Clinton: 32

Kansas
Clinton: 41
Trump: 30

Kentucky
Trump: 41
Clinton: 30

Louisiana
Trump: 54
Clinton: 25

Massachusetts
Clinton: 50
Trump: 24

Maryland
Clinton: 43
Trump: 27

Maine
Trump: 35
Clinton: 33

Michigan
Clinton: 35
Trump: 34

Minnesota
Clinton: 37
Trump: 27

Missouri
Clinton: 33
Trump: 32

Mississippi
Trump: 55
Clinton: 17

Montana
Clinton: 33
Trump: 29

North Carolina
Trump: 40
Clinton: 32

North Dakota
Trump: 39
Clinton: 17

Nebraska
Trump: 42
Clinton: 29

New Hampshire
Trump: 38
Clinton: 28

New Jersey
Trump: 36
Clinton: 36

New Mexico
Clinton: 30
Trump: 30

Nevada
Trump: 34
Clinton: 32

New York
Clinton: 42
Trump: 28

Ohio
Clinton: 34
Trump: 33

Oklahoma
Trump: 43
Clinton: 28

Oregon
Clinton: 40
Trump: 28

Pennsylvania
Trump: 36
Clinton: 35

Rhode Island
Clinton: 46
Trump: 31

South Carolina
Trump: 41
Clinton: 33

South Dakota
Clinton: 31
Trump: 30

Tennessee
Trump: 42
Clinton: 29

Texas
Trump: 42
Clinton: 29

Utah
Clinton: 28
Trump: 24

Virginia
Trump: 37
Clinton: 36

Vermont
Clinton: 44
Trump: 19

Washington
Clinton: 37
Trump: 28

Wisconsin
Clinton: 42
Trump: 24

West Virginia
Trump: 36
Clinton: 19

Wyoming
Trump: 45
Clinton: 30


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: StatesPoll on September 22, 2016, 02:32:25 am
 Google Consumer Surverys  9/14-9/20

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS

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1. Florida, 9/14-9/20, 1125 LV   
TRUMP 43.12% | Hillary 30.25% | Johnson 8.07%
2. Georgia, 9/14-9/20, 543 LV   
TRUMP 44.88% | Hillary 30.02% | Johnson 6.65%
3. North Carolina, 9/14-9/20, 708 LV
TRUMP 39.54% | Hillary 32.31% | Johnson 8.51%
4. Pennsylvania, 9/14-9/20, 772 LV 
TRUMP 36.05% | Hillary 34.81% | Johnson 7.56%

5. New Mexico, 9/14-9/20, 216 LV
Hillary 30.14% |TRUMP 29.76% | Johnson 17.9%


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6. New Jersey, 9/14-9/20, 655 LV   
TRUMP 36.19% | Hillary 35.6% | Johnson 5.48%

7. Virginia, 9/14-9/20, 616 LV 
TRUMP 36.84% | Hillary 36.26% | Johnson 7.64%



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8. Iowa, 9/14-9/20, 387 LV   
TRUMP 30.86% | Hillary 29.97% | Johnson 11.39%
9. Ohio, 9/14-9/20, 846 LV
Hillary 33.76% |TRUMP 32.71% | Johnson 7.79%
10. Michigan, 9/14-9/20, 613 LV 
Hillary 34.85% |TRUMP 33.58% | Johnson 7.93%

11. Nevada, 9/14-9/20, 236 LV 
TRUMP 33.54% | Hillary 32.23% | Johnson 15.06%
12. Connecticut, 9/14-9/20  307 LV
Hillary 39% |TRUMP 31.8% | Johnson 6.07%
13. Minnesota, 9/14-9/20, 579 LV
Hillary 37.2% |TRUMP 26.85% | Johnson 8.74%


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14. Arizona, 9/14-9/20, 572 LV
Hillary 37.46% |TRUMP 32.1% | Johnson 9.91%
15. Colorado, 9/14-9/20, 550 LV 
Hillary 40.6% |TRUMP 28.49% | Johnson 9.36%
16. Wisconsin, 9/14-9/20  748 LV 
Hillary 42.22% |TRUMP 24.49% | Johnson 8.14%







Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 22, 2016, 02:32:55 am
I honestly can't decide which result is the junkiest one. So much trash.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on September 22, 2016, 02:35:14 am
I honestly can't decide which result is the junkiest one. So much trash.
Your new electoral map!

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Dumbo on September 22, 2016, 02:37:50 am
Clinton 290
Trump 248

great news!


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Sorenroy on September 22, 2016, 06:29:34 am
So the PDF in the Google Drive folder (https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE) seems to just be a screenshot of an interactive that allows to choose a state and the MOE (as well as other things). Where can I find that interactive (the download is still just that screenshot)?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on September 22, 2016, 07:07:28 am
hahahahahahaha


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Snek! on September 22, 2016, 07:42:54 am
Imagine when it is midnight and most of the country is TCTC.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 22, 2016, 10:13:46 am
I honestly can't decide which result is the junkiest one. So much trash.
Your new electoral map!

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The realignment is real!


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: StatesPoll on September 22, 2016, 12:14:20 pm
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE

Very, very strange. 538 likes them though...

It seems Nate Silver doesn't add Google Polls anymore :(




Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Devout Centrist on September 22, 2016, 12:18:20 pm
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE

Very, very strange. 538 likes them though...

It seems Nate Silver doesn't add Google Polls anymore :(



Good. A five year old could make a better methodology.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 22, 2016, 12:28:57 pm
Google Consumer Surverys  9/14-9/20

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS

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1. Florida, 9/14-9/20, 1125 LV   
TRUMP 43.12% | Hillary 30.25% | Johnson 8.07%
2. Georgia, 9/14-9/20, 543 LV   
TRUMP 44.88% | Hillary 30.02% | Johnson 6.65%
3. North Carolina, 9/14-9/20, 708 LV
TRUMP 39.54% | Hillary 32.31% | Johnson 8.51%
4. Pennsylvania, 9/14-9/20, 772 LV 
TRUMP 36.05% | Hillary 34.81% | Johnson 7.56%

5. New Mexico, 9/14-9/20, 216 LV
Hillary 30.14% |TRUMP 29.76% | Johnson 17.9%


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6. New Jersey, 9/14-9/20, 655 LV   
TRUMP 36.19% | Hillary 35.6% | Johnson 5.48%

7. Virginia, 9/14-9/20, 616 LV 
TRUMP 36.84% | Hillary 36.26% | Johnson 7.64%



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8. Iowa, 9/14-9/20, 387 LV   
TRUMP 30.86% | Hillary 29.97% | Johnson 11.39%
9. Ohio, 9/14-9/20, 846 LV
Hillary 33.76% |TRUMP 32.71% | Johnson 7.79%
10. Michigan, 9/14-9/20, 613 LV 
Hillary 34.85% |TRUMP 33.58% | Johnson 7.93%

11. Nevada, 9/14-9/20, 236 LV 
TRUMP 33.54% | Hillary 32.23% | Johnson 15.06%
12. Connecticut, 9/14-9/20  307 LV
Hillary 39% |TRUMP 31.8% | Johnson 6.07%
13. Minnesota, 9/14-9/20, 579 LV
Hillary 37.2% |TRUMP 26.85% | Johnson 8.74%


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14. Arizona, 9/14-9/20, 572 LV
Hillary 37.46% |TRUMP 32.1% | Johnson 9.91%
15. Colorado, 9/14-9/20, 550 LV 
Hillary 40.6% |TRUMP 28.49% | Johnson 9.36%
16. Wisconsin, 9/14-9/20  748 LV 
Hillary 42.22% |TRUMP 24.49% | Johnson 8.14%







Statespoll blows his load every time he talks "TRUMP". That's why many of his supporters are single.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: KingSweden on September 22, 2016, 01:38:43 pm
NVM these have been included in the 538 average


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Maxwell on September 22, 2016, 01:42:08 pm
boy oh boy oh boy does this look terrible.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: olowakandi on September 22, 2016, 01:42:21 pm
Ohio poll looks good😂


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: michelle on September 22, 2016, 02:11:30 pm
I honestly can't decide which result is the junkiest one. So much trash.
Your new electoral map!

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 07:54:26 pm
9/21-9/26 release

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 28, 2016, 07:56:32 pm
Idaho!?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Boston Bread on September 28, 2016, 07:57:47 pm
So this is the map?
()


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 28, 2016, 07:57:47 pm
I just threw up a little.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: NOVA Green on September 28, 2016, 08:01:22 pm
Idaho!?

#BattlegroundIdaho

Send Bernie out there for the win... ;)

Although this is obviously a junk poll, it does make sense that ID could likely vote to the Left of UT considering the large Mormon population of the state, an historical Dem presence in the Idaho panhandle, combined with Boise, that is not only a university and government town, but additionally, has been one of the fastest growing tech cities in the Mountain West for decades...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 08:03:05 pm
Idaho!?
That one is wrong. Have to check the spreadsheet and recast.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: heatcharger on September 28, 2016, 08:03:26 pm
It's interesting how even in these junk 50-state polls, Hillary has a 7-10 point lead in Virginia. :)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on September 28, 2016, 08:04:11 pm
Titanium trash


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 08:10:44 pm
Idaho was the only error. I had the wrong postal code to crunch the numbers, it was duplicating Iowa's numbers.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Horus on September 28, 2016, 09:05:53 pm
So Pennsylvania and Ohio are Trump states while Clinton takes Indiana and Missouri? All trackers, whether 50 state trackers or national trackers, should be thrown straight in the garbage.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: NOVA Green on September 28, 2016, 09:54:13 pm
So Pennsylvania and Ohio are Trump states while Clinton takes Indiana and Missouri? All trackers, whether 50 state trackers or national trackers, should be thrown straight in the garbage.

As I posted on another thread:

"Emerson is best consumed in a 12 ounce can of generic crap lukewarm beer that is quickly guzzled down with frequent attempts to swallow, while the brain and body are basically rejecting the entire contents of the can."

I will happily throw Google Consumer Surveys into the mix of lukewarm swill, but in this case might need to consume a two or three day old Mickey's or Old English, that has a slightly higher alcohol content but is so stale tasting and crappy to end view this with any type of reputability.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on October 05, 2016, 09:24:20 am
Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:

()


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on October 05, 2016, 09:26:57 am
Clinton wins Alaska by 11%, the same margin Trump is ahead by in North Carolina, and in New Hampshire she has more than twice as many supporters as Trump. And South Dakota is a virtual tie, Trump ahead by only 1%.

All of this is with a national Clinton lead of 5% so I guess it's high time to adjust that Alaska PVI.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Boston Bread on October 05, 2016, 09:31:06 am
The samples are wayyy to small for some states. 74 LVs in New Hampshire, for instance.

I have to agree that the map is glorious, though.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: BlueSwan on October 05, 2016, 09:32:08 am
Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:

()
Kentucky too close to call! Just like Pennsylvania!

Clinton winning Alaska, Kansas, Missouri and Indiana!

Trump winning North Carolina while losing Arizona.

Great job, Google! At least we can be sure that they are not fiddling with the numbers.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on October 05, 2016, 09:45:37 am
Google strikes again! Now with this glorious map:

()
Kentucky too close to call! Just like Pennsylvania!

Clinton winning Alaska, Kansas, Missouri and Indiana!

Trump winning North Carolina while losing Arizona.

Great job, Google! At least we can be sure that they are not fiddling with the numbers.

Yeah, you sure can't accuse them of herding.

As noted by New Canadaland many of the most whacky results happen due to small sample sizes. I still think mocking them is fair game however because they made the decision to release this s**t as a 50-state poll.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 05, 2016, 10:06:41 am
This is a weird set of polls.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Boston Bread on October 05, 2016, 10:18:22 am
This is a weird set of polls.
The state-by-state breakdown would actually make perfect sense in an election where the GOP was making historic inroads among black voters, while Democrats improved significantly with whites (both college and non-college educated). Trump does better than you'd expect in all the states with more blacks and underperforms in all the whiter states. Of course this is not happening so what is more likely is that GCS is overpolling white liberals and underpolling minorities.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 05, 2016, 11:15:29 am
hahahahaha wtf


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: WI is Safe D on October 05, 2016, 01:41:47 pm
At least the LA Times/USC polls are internally consistent.  This is just scattershot nonsense.  Nate's inclusion of this garbage makes me question the entire model.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on October 05, 2016, 02:03:34 pm
Clinton's lead is +5 nationally in this batch of junk.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Pilchard on October 05, 2016, 03:23:41 pm
Google guess location based on IP address for these polls (and also guess demographic data using tracking cookies) instead of asking these questions in the poll - overview of Google Consumer Survey methodology (https://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/static/consumer_surveys_whitepaper.pdf)

so limitations of locating IP addresses would explain why the state by state breakdown is complete junk - in particular Kansas, as if the location of an IP address is unknown it might be assigned to the geographic centre of the US, in Kansas - this has caused problems before, including this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37048521)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 11:08:04 pm
9/27-10/3 breakdown with margins sorted by state

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Hammy on October 05, 2016, 11:13:52 pm
So Clinton wins Kansas/Alaska/Indiana but loses Georgia and Florida? How's that work? And the high number of undecideds essentially makes the entire poll meaningless.


Title: Re: Clinton +25 in New Hampshire (Google Costumer Survey)
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on October 06, 2016, 09:29:09 pm
Trash


Title: Re: Clinton +25 in New Hampshire (Google Costumer Survey)
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on October 06, 2016, 09:30:45 pm
I don't think New Hampshire costumers are representative of the state as a whole. They're less likely to buy into Trump's rigged economy shtick, since they're be getting more and more business as Halloween approaches.


Title: Re: Clinton +25 in New Hampshire (Google Costumer Survey)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 06, 2016, 09:31:19 pm
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Title: Re: Clinton +25 in New Hampshire (Google Costumer Survey)
Post by: Seriously? on October 06, 2016, 09:44:56 pm
46% Hillary Clinton (D)
21% Donald Trump (R)
9% Gary Johnson (L)

Just saw this on twitter... B-b-but I thought NH was supposed to be more competitive than VT and MA this year! :(
They asked like 74 people on line at the local Wal*Mart who they'd support for President. Some of htese polls have such a small sample size to be practically meaningless.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 06, 2016, 11:36:59 pm
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls/

As Nate Silver explained before, state-specific poll is better than a huge national poll that surveyed all 50 states and gives the state result separately.

One potential problem being:
Oregon whites are more liberal than the average whites in America.
Mississippi whites are more conservative than the average whites.

If you try to weigh Google Survey to match the national average white's probability of voting R and D, it would likely overestimate Mississippi's Democrats share and underestimate Oregon's Democrats share. But these kinds of things cancel each other in a holistic national sample.

State-specific polls are useful in the sense that they can focus on that one specific state's race, age, gender, and education.

That's probably why we see some odd things like Hillary being up in red states and Trump being up in blue states.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 07, 2016, 04:45:48 am
Google Consumer Surveys are garbage for gauging state trends.  538 reduced their weightage because of this reason


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 07, 2016, 05:50:56 am
This is a weird set of polls.
The state-by-state breakdown would actually make perfect sense in an election where the GOP was making historic inroads among black voters, while Democrats improved significantly with whites (both college and non-college educated). Trump does better than you'd expect in all the states with more blacks and underperforms in all the whiter states. Of course this is not happening so what is more likely is that GCS is overpolling white liberals and underpolling minorities.
So... consumers of premium content?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Boston Bread on October 10, 2016, 06:31:33 pm
There's a new batch of Google polls out. Clinton up 39 points in NH, which is about what you'd expect.

edit: here's the link if anyone needs it https://datastudio.google.com/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/YgS


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: heatcharger on October 10, 2016, 06:35:28 pm
There's a new batch of Google polls out. Clinton up 39 points in NH, which is about what you'd expect.

Yup. Trump's getting 17% in New Hampshire after the tapes because Hillary's getting 100% of the female vote.

Trump's also gonna win North Dakota by 50% because... reasons.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: alomas on October 10, 2016, 06:39:49 pm
Trump up 15 in Georgia and losing in Arizona. This poll is a disaster.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 10, 2016, 06:50:49 pm
Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on October 10, 2016, 09:18:43 pm
Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.
Massive understatement.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on October 10, 2016, 09:20:35 pm
I honestly think that GCS has a systemic problem polling the South.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on October 11, 2016, 12:06:34 am
I honestly think that GCS has a systemic problem polling the South.
Or DC or the midwest.

These polls are basically 4-question polls and look at geolocation to determine where the voter is going to vote, which is why for a while, they got terrible results in DC.

Obviously 2 of the 50 polls should fail as a matter of science at 95% confidence and some of the MOEs are gigantic (especially in the smaller states), which make these polls dicey.


Title: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE!
Post by: Simfan34 on October 11, 2016, 07:10:49 pm
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Caveat emptor, but still...

Quote
After Sundayís debate, I commissioned a Google Consumer Surveys poll of the presidential race in Utah. The results show a very close three-way race between Trump, Clinton, and Evan McMullin.

Right now, almost none of the Utah political establishment has endorsed a candidate. Mitt Romney, Sen. Mike Lee, Gov. Gary Herbert, and most other top officials are on the record opposing Trump at this point, but none of them publicly support another candidate. It seems to me that if any one of those three officials mentioned were to publicly endorse Evan McMullin, he would instantly become the favorite in Utah.

Gary Johnson continues to struggle in Utah. He places 4th by a sizable margin in this poll. While McMullin is unlikely to show anywhere near this much support in any other state, the growth of another third party candidate will make it much harder for Johnson to take a significant part of the Trump vote.

Hillary Clinton is likely to get about 30% of the vote in Utah. I canít predict whether that will be enough for her to win, or put her in 3rd place in the state.

https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-utah-poll-17c3d315155#.z23bys74o


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 11, 2016, 07:11:58 pm
It's a Google "survey" so, let's not include this in anything.


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE
Post by: Never Beto on October 11, 2016, 07:12:51 pm
I feel sorry for UT. They truly have no one that they feel represents them at all.


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE
Post by: darthpi on October 11, 2016, 07:15:56 pm
I'm guessing this is what Rick Wilson was referring to when he tweeted this: https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/785990347629424640 (https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/785990347629424640)


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE
Post by: Horus on October 11, 2016, 07:16:30 pm
Too bad it's google consumer surveys.


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE
Post by: Snek! on October 11, 2016, 07:20:02 pm
Well, they are a persecuted people. Maybe they will empathize with others going forward but they are doubts that persecuted people can empathize with one another. That is why we night have to do the math backwards soon.


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE!
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 11, 2016, 07:25:52 pm
hmp...not even the pros can separate those things and a REAL poll. <.<


Title: Re: UT - Google Consumer Surveys: TIE!
Post by: Higgs on October 11, 2016, 07:31:09 pm
McMentum!


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 01:54:01 am
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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Lok on October 12, 2016, 04:33:51 am
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LOL@ ALL OF THIS, ESPECIALLY DC


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 12, 2016, 09:46:07 am
()
wow


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 12, 2016, 09:49:16 am
Let's just take a moment to appreciate that New Hampshire is neck-and-neck with Vermont for the most Democratic state in the nation in this poll


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ted Bessell on October 12, 2016, 09:54:23 am
>when life imitates President Infinity


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 17, 2016, 10:09:45 pm
So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 17, 2016, 10:14:51 pm
So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Alcon on October 17, 2016, 11:09:18 pm
So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

Hmmmm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/08/10/lawsuit-how-a-quiet-kansas-home-wound-up-with-600-million-ip-addresses-and-a-world-of-trouble/


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Holmes on October 17, 2016, 11:17:51 pm
So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

We should crowdfund a Google Consumer Survey for Kansas where the only question is "Are you from Kansas? Yes/No/Not Sure"


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 17, 2016, 11:34:51 pm
So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

We should crowdfund a Google Consumer Survey for Kansas where the only question is "Are you from Kansas? Yes/No/Not Sure"

That would be interesting.  I would probably phrase it "Are you currently in Kansas?", and drop the Not Sure option.  GCS would probably make us add a "I prefer not to say" option, though.

Thinking about it, an actual state poll might not cause as many problems as a U.S. poll due to weighting.  My South Dakota poll was pretty evenly geographically distributed, at least in theory.  Now that all these IP addresses in the Washington Post Article resolve to a lake in Wichita, a statewide poll will probably only include so many of them before moving on to other parts of the state.  The Wichita sample might get skewed, but the rest of the state should be okay.

A nationwide poll (which is what the GCS 50-state surveys ultimately are based on) might not have as fine a geographical distribution - just being from "Kansas" might be good enough for a national poll, instead of them further breaking down Kansas into other areas.  And if more people with IP addresses from "Kansas" actually aren't from the state, their whole Kansas subsample would be off.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Gustaf on October 18, 2016, 02:49:07 am
Behold the glory:

()


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on October 18, 2016, 08:39:14 am
Behold the glory:

()

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Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 22, 2016, 02:17:14 pm
Google Consumer Survey's 10/20 results (click on the image for a larger view):

(
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GCS seems to weigh their 50-state polls the same way they weigh the polls we've been conducting - by Internet users.  That's a bit bizarre for a poll of likely voters, but it is what it is.  As an experiment, I extracted the raw numbers and reweighted them according to the method amdcpus and I have been using to weight our GCS LV polls.  The Trump-Clinton margin raw data was, on average, 1.08 points more favorable to Trump, probably because GCS samples tend to be male-heavy.  The Trump-Clinton margin using the amdcpus method was, on average, 1.6 points more favorable to Trump, likely because younger voters are less likely to vote Trump, but get more heavily weighted in the GCS Internet User method.  Three states - Indiana, Pennsylvania and Maine - flipped to Trump as a result of the amdcpus method.

I didn't do this exercise to question the GCS polls.  As I've always said, polls are a snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time using the methodology that the particular pollster uses.  No more.  No less.  But how polls are weighted does matter.  Thus, any pollsters' polls are sometimes more useful in determining trends than anything else.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Noted Irishman on October 23, 2016, 02:09:54 am
^^^ Out of curiosity, I threw all of those (approximate) margins into my popular vote spreadsheet. In the two-way model, Clinton leads in the PV by a little over 2 points.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Eraserhead on October 23, 2016, 03:01:35 am
This looks like some serious garbage.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 23, 2016, 01:56:21 pm
The realignment!!

()

Or, only using the right column:

()
299-239


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 23, 2016, 05:58:39 pm
The realignment!!

()

Or, only using the right column:

()
293-245

Your maps have Kansas incorrectly colored.  GCS has Clinton up there, no matter how you weight them.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 23, 2016, 11:29:43 pm
I made a systemic computational error with the LV margin.  (Fortunately, this is only an issue with this dataset, and not what I've weighted before).  Basically, I had the wrong formula in the female rows, and I didn't include the Female 18-24s while wrongly weighting the other Female age categories.  Fixing that issue lowered the average LV margin difference versus GCS Internet weighting to Trump +1.56.  Still a difference, but not as stark.  The same states flipped to Trump, but only barely.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Castro on October 25, 2016, 04:04:05 pm
10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror


()


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on October 25, 2016, 04:08:59 pm
AYY LMAO


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 25, 2016, 04:39:33 pm
10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror


()

By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 25, 2016, 04:40:18 pm
1-800-AYYLMAO


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on October 25, 2016, 04:42:05 pm
It would be great if GCS' last poll churns out reasonable accurate results, and they are given a pass for all the junk they pushed out into the world.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IceSpear on October 25, 2016, 05:13:04 pm
Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Castro on October 25, 2016, 05:15:19 pm
Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 25, 2016, 05:51:14 pm
Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.

They also don't weight the polls for the electorate in all 50 states, just to Internet users nationally.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 25, 2016, 08:01:44 pm
10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror


()

By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.

Alaska should be Atlas red and New Hampshire Atlas blue.  With whopping sample sizes of 86 and 56, what could possibly go wrong?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on October 25, 2016, 08:15:16 pm
Google Consumer Survey's 10/25 Results:

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)

This time, the margin in Google's model is only off the margin in the amdcpus LV model by an average 0.84 points.  The raw, unweighted results are off the Google model by 1.06 points.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 25, 2016, 09:45:48 pm
()

This map would be the worst, because I would probably get really excited when the East came in, only to be stunned by the West!  But, maybe in real life, the Western Hillary supporters would stay at home because they saw results from the East.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Hammy on October 25, 2016, 11:47:44 pm
This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 26, 2016, 05:17:52 am
This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
Take out AK, KS and IA and you get a 271 Freiwal :)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2016, 09:44:06 pm
The 11/1 Iteration:

(
Img
) (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=16397)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Snek! on November 01, 2016, 10:01:32 pm
Iowa and Deleware for Arizona, huh?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2016, 10:06:59 pm
Iowa and Deleware for Arizona, huh?

Delaware is the one state that flips if weighted by likely voter demographics.  Google itself has it going to Clinton - barely.  But the sample size is really small, 94.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 10:19:30 pm
The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on November 01, 2016, 10:19:52 pm
The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: morgieb on November 01, 2016, 10:21:18 pm
I love the smell of a junk poll of a morning.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:23:04 pm
The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.

As far as I can tell, nobody besides Nate "Discredited Fraud" Silver includes these junky Google polls in their averages.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 01, 2016, 10:25:29 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:26:44 pm
I do agree that Nate using things of this quality has been very not good for his numbers all season. Not sure what he's thinking.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 10:26:57 pm
Ah, I see NH is actually the third most Democratic state.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:27:52 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

Medium/low/high angry women turnout levels?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2016, 10:40:15 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:54:14 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:57:56 pm
IDK if those polls "skew" 538. The average of 538 is pretty similar to Upshot. It is the chances that so different (because of strong covariance and and assumed polling error.) If I am not wrong.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2016, 11:01:48 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 11:05:23 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 01, 2016, 11:31:48 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 11:33:15 pm
Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.

Yeah, they're far from A+s, and more often than other polls spit out some real eggs, but they're not as bad on the whole as people make them out to be.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2016, 05:02:29 am
These give me a headache.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 02, 2016, 10:00:22 am
missouri at clinton+10 with a >500 sample size? ;D


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Snek! on November 02, 2016, 10:01:41 am
missouri at clinton+10 with a >500 sample size? ;D

I think it probably has something to do with Kansas City and Fiber.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2016, 10:08:29 pm
Did this update again yet?


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2016, 10:14:35 pm
Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on November 04, 2016, 10:17:02 pm
Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2016, 10:22:57 pm
Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.

That puts them on track to possibly update their numbers on Monday.  It's usually been 5-6 days between 50-state poll releases.


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 07, 2016, 10:10:24 pm
The final Google Survey 50 State Poll Results.  Some of these are a real mess.  Salt to taste:

(
Img
) (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=16420img)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: cinyc on November 07, 2016, 10:36:49 pm
Google Survey Reported:
(
Img
)

Raw:
(
Img
)


LV Weighted:
(
Img
)


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Arch on November 07, 2016, 10:37:43 pm
Ummm... lol


Title: Re: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2016, 02:44:17 am
Definitely going to lose their high pollster rating!