Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 10, 2016, 11:41:05 pm



Title: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 10, 2016, 11:41:05 pm
New Hampshire
52% Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.)
44% Maggie Hassan (D)

Nevada
47% Joe Heck (R)
45% Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)

Georgia
53% Johnny Isakson (R, inc.)
38% Jim Barksdale (D)

Arizona
57% John McCain (R, inc.)
38% Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-trump-deadlocked-battleground-states-polls-n646216?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 10, 2016, 11:44:49 pm
Nevada and Georgia look right but New Hampshire and especially Arizona don't.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 10, 2016, 11:45:15 pm
I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 10, 2016, 11:52:30 pm
I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 10, 2016, 11:54:24 pm
I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

The same poll has Clinton up 1 over Trump, but we all know that she's leading him by at least 5 in the state. Ayotte can keep it close because she's a woman, but she can't win. Most undecideds are likely closeted Hassan supporters. Still Safe D.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on September 10, 2016, 11:54:36 pm
I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the "socialist by association" theory, right?


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on September 10, 2016, 11:55:10 pm
Junk.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 10, 2016, 11:57:49 pm
I think the NH poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here.

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the angry women theory, right?

You do realize that exactly 0 people outside of Atlas believe the "socialist by association" theory, right?

Not relevant. I wasn't referring to the content of this apparent poll, but to the fact you think the media had some ulterior motive in conducting this poll assuming they did indeed conduct it, which is utterly ludricious.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 11, 2016, 12:57:45 am
I found these on Scribd.com:
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578461/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Arizona-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578643/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Georgia-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578717/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Nevada-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016
https://www.scribd.com/document/323578761/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2016

All were posted by a Vaughn Ververs.  Somebody by that name works at NBC as a political editor., according to LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/vaughn-ververs-4b31939).  So this probably checks out.

So what happened to Kirkpatrick?


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Ljube on September 11, 2016, 01:18:52 am
McCain was never going to lose that race anyway.
Two years ago I classified the race as safe McCain. Not changing that classification now in spite of Kirkpatrick's qualities.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 11, 2016, 01:23:19 am
Yeah, I know he's favored, but this margin probably isn't even in Seriously's wildest dreams.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 11, 2016, 01:55:11 am
Yeah, I know he's favored, but this margin probably isn't even in Seriously's wildest dreams.

Imagine what Donnelly's poll numbers would have looked like had Lugar managed to beat Mourdoch.



These numbers are probably excessive, but they aren't really surprising.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 11, 2016, 06:11:19 am
From Mark Murray on twitter:
SEN in NBC/WSJ/Marist polls (among LVs)
AZ: McCain 57, Kirkp 38
GA: Isakson 53, Barksdale 38
NV: Heck 47, Masto 45
NH: Ayotte 52, Hassan 44

So all these numbers are right.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2016, 07:51:30 am
He's defeated 4 incumbent Senators Udall, Landrieu, Hagen & Pryor, the Dems will defeat Toomey, Ayotte, Johnson & Kirk.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Economically Anxious Bush, Romney, Trump, Bernie Voter on September 11, 2016, 02:06:31 pm
New Hampshire could easily be an outlier.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Never Populism on September 11, 2016, 03:27:21 pm
McCain is getting a primary bounce that will fade on his way to a comfortable 8-point win. Nevada and Georgia sound right. NH is probably an outlier - all indications are that race is very close, but Ayotte should overperform Trump decently.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2016, 06:25:35 pm
NH Gov race is 4 pts. Sununu may very well win. But Hassan will be the victor


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 11, 2016, 07:42:15 pm
Looking at the crosstabs for Arizona, some really weird numbers.

Latinos: McCain +9 (2012: Obama +49/Carmona +46)
Women: McCain +14 (2012: Romney +7/Carmona +1)
18 to 29: McCain +11 (2012: Obama +27/Carmona +18)
Moderates: McCain +8 (2012: Obama +5/Carmona +16)

Going to need another poll to confirm this.


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/911-trump-and-clinton-in-close-contests-in-arizona-georgia-nevada-and-new-hampshire/


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 11, 2016, 07:49:28 pm
WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: Heisenberg on September 11, 2016, 08:23:30 pm
WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on September 11, 2016, 08:36:17 pm
WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.

Agreed. Democrats have a hard floor with males in NH (45% or so).


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2016, 09:19:51 pm
NH likes Ayotte and Hassan. But, Hassan is running in a very blue presidential state like NH


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: whitesox130 on September 11, 2016, 10:25:12 pm
WHOA, Ayotte is winning men 62%-35% and only losing NH females by 11. Those are exactly the kind of numbers she needs, but I doubt that she will get them on election day.
That just proves its a junk poll.

Agreed. Democrats have a hard floor with males in NH (45% or so).
Ayotte had to have won males by more than that in 2010.

Anyway, assuming these aren't junk (I don't know much about Marist), excellent news!


Title: Re: NH/NV/GA/AZ Marist: Ayotte +8, Heck +2, Isakson +15, McCain +19
Post by: olowakandi on September 11, 2016, 10:43:43 pm
PPP polls have been more reliable, I doubt Ayotte lead holds up through election with Dems GOTV effort in early voting.

They have Clinton tied in AZ and GA and Ayotte and Heck winning.