Talk Elections

Ohio:

Clinton 46
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Florida:

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker: Clinton 43, Trump 42

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

Compared to last week

Ohio:
Clinton 46  (+0)
Trump 39   (-1)
Johnson 7
Stein 2     

Florida:
Clinton 44 (-1)
Trump 42  (+2)
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker:
Clinton 43 (+0)
Trump 42 (+1)

Wait why is Ohio only 78% White. It's 85% White

How can she be up by 7 in Ohio and 2 in Florida but only up 1 in the battleground tracker? It just doesn't make sense.

Ohio is 7% more African-American in this sample than IRL

Didn't you hear about battleground Rhode Island?

Which is why the battleground tracker should safely be ignored. State polls will always be a better barometer of what's going on in these states.

epic trolling, YouGov.

+7 in Ohio is a yuuuuge outlier.

Ohio's 2012 exit poll was 79% white, 15% African-American, and 6% other

Florida's 2012 exit poll was 67% white, 13% African-American, 17% Hispanic and 3% other (so YouGov's demographic sample checks out in both cases)

I stand corrected. But either way +7 seems like a big outlier

Something might be happening. Any attempt to unskew might lead to a healthy helping of crow. That goes for all polls today.

Gut feeling says she has a wider lead in FL than OH...my sense of how things stand is Clinton +4 in FL and Clinton +2 in OH

The Ohio poll does seem off, but so did the Trump +4 one.

Ohio is unionized and has the Cleveland suburbs (to a lesser extent, the Cincinnati suburbs) have a lot of educated voters. It's not unbelievable for Clinton to lead there.

In line with Obama 2012.

The polls are ALL over the place today

Underweighted White Evangelicals horrirbly

I. Ohio

1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/ (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/)

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/ (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/)


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%

lol, he's back ↑

Unskewing is BS (see: 2012)

See: 2012? I unskewed poll as 2012 Exit poll? :p

This appears to be an outlier in Ohio, but it's a pro Hillary outlier so it must be exact.

1. The electorate changes
2. It didn't work in 2012, and it won't work now.

There's a difference between criticizing a poll's methodology and sample composition and actually algebraically adjusting the results to fit some model you've decided to use (skewing). Skewing is beyond ridiculous and should be met with ridicule and scorn. If this site wasn't a gigantic joke Statespoll would already be banned.

Not sure about those Ohio numbers but just throw them in the pot with everything else.

Republican voters = 49% of electorate in 2012
Democratic voters = 50% of electorate in 2012

Trump: 100%*49% + 0%*50% = 49%
Clinton: 0%*49%+100%*50%=50%

Therefore Clinton will win Florida + 1 ::)

Oh No !
Not StatesPoll again.

Yeah... :(

I think we can all assume that Ohio will be +1-2% to the left or right of the national numbers...

If Clinton is +3-5% nationally, these numbers seem realistic.

If Clinton is up 1-3% these sound a bit favorable for the Democrat.

All that being said, Trump has had a harder time consolidating Republican support in this swing state than in many others....

Trump has yet to prove he can get anywhere close to 45% in a 3rd party race, let alone 47% in a two-person matchup.

These are very good numbers for Hillary. To be honest, they'd be a lot more believable if they were reversed (not that I'm discounting them).

For the Presidency, it does seem like Democrats tend to over-perform in the polls in Ohio. I remember in 2012 that President Obama was up by about six points in one of the last polls. President Obama's strength in Ohio was one of the reasons I never seriously doubted his reelection. I'm surprised he didn't do better as I really thought 2012 was going to be a year when Ohio voted to the left of the nation. If you look at the county swing map though, I think there were a lot of working class whites that swung to Obama in 2012. I have to believe he lost a lot of college-educated whites, which would explain why the Northeastern part of the state swung against him (particularly the Cleveland suburbs and the loss of bellwether Lake County).

Lol, you can't use the 2012 exit poll in a 2016 electorate.

Don't forget John Kerry's polling numbers in OH way back in '04 that looked really good until ED.

Not only that, but I remember the early returns out of Ohio. They looked very good for Kerry, but obviously we know how that turned out (my mom knew how much the election meant to me and called to get me out of school the next day). The day after Election Day is almost my own personal holiday. Anyways, when the final Ohio polls are released, it might be a good idea to take about 2-3 points away from the Democratic margin. However, considering how much stronger Hillary's ground game is this year, I'm not sure. I'd be more than stunned if Hillary won Ohio by 7%. Ohio will be close, but I do feel pretty good about it. Trump is not going to come remotely close to winning Mahoning County, a county that swung towards President Obama in 2012 and gave him over 63% of the vote.

What am I missing about Mahoning County?  Kerry won it 63-37 in '04 (Obama also similar margin over McCain in '08), so it doesn't strike me as a bellwether county.

It is a place that is both very working-class, very white, and very Democratic, and perhaps one of the few places in the country where anti-trade sentiment is really, really salient. This was the heart of Jim Traficant's old district, for instance. So the idea exists (and it's probably true, though I doubt he actually carries it) that Donald Trump will improve significantly on prior Republican performances in Mahoning County.

Someone needs to add the OH poll to the database ...