Talk Elections

46% Trump (R)
42% Clinton (D)
3% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/JMC_FL_Sept_2016.pdf

Looks like Hillary isn't as favoured as some on this Forum expected her to be a few weeks ago.

It would be better if she stays home for the next 2 weeks or so to recover from her pneumonia, so that she's in good shape again for the first debate.

It's better anyway for her to be out of the news, because the more she's in the news, the more she drops in the polls.

This feels like 2012 "omg swing state polls! But muh national!!"

No one really knows, outside of Trump STILL being weak on aggregate.

Plus they've produced some outlier polls.

In FL they had Trump +5  in head-to-head   JUL. 9-10.

And Clinton +7 in GA  AUG. 6-7

FL polls are all over the place, aren't they?

All their polls are outliers, including the Clinton +7 in GA. Throw it in the trash. YouGov is most likely right here

to red avatars, underweighted white evengalicals -10% Yougov = most likely right poll?
hahahaha.


I. Ohio
1. CNN Ohio Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 31%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/ (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/OH/president/)

2. CBS/YouGov Ohio 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 199 LV / Total 988 LV = 20.14%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/ (https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/)

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(31%)x66%+ Non-White-Evans(69%)x32% = 42.54%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(31%)x15% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x53% = 41.22%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(31%)x10% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x6%= 7.24%
4) Stein: White-Evans(31%)x1% +  Non-White-Evans(69%)x2% = 1.69%

II. Florida

1. CNN Florida Exit Poll 2012: White Evangelicals 24%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/ (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/)


2. CBS/YouGov Florida 9/7-9/9. White Evangelicals 166 LV /  Total 1193 LV = 13.9%
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/ (https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/)

3. Adjusted
1) TRUMP: White-Evans(24%)x74%+ Non-White-Evans(76%)x36% = 45.12%
2) Hillary: White-Evans(24%)x14% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x49% = 40.6%
3) Johnson: White-Evans(24%)x5% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x5%= 5%
4) Stein: White-Evans(24%)x0% +  Non-White-Evans(76%)x2% = 1.52%

This is a Republican firm that has never shown Clinton ahead.
As a matter of fact Clinton has actually improved her numbers compared to their last poll.

Important note: this poll shows the two virtually tied among Hispanics. Be a bit wary.

Junk, a virtual tie among hispanics is ridiculous. Even if you put Cuban Americans into consideration.

oh. really?

But Mohamed. even your liberal hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted this poll as TRUMP +4%.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus)
Sad!

Florida flips to Trump on the RCP no tossups map.

Any poll that shows Hispanics tied or even close is Trash. Period.

Are you sure?

It might be worth remembering Bush in '04 won FL Hispanics 56-44.

GWB never called them rapists and criminals

Sure, but I wonder to what degree FL Hispanics (which is dominated by Caribbean origin Hispanics) identify with Mexican illegal immigrants.  I just don't know.

Not defending Trump's stupid comments, but is it possible the damage is mitigated by the nature of Florida's Latino makeup?  Only 15% of FL Hispanics are Mexican origin.

Trust me. Puerto Ricans are a big part of the FL Hispanic population, and we hate him just as much.

Do we know how Puerto Ricans have voted in the past in FL?  I haven't found that level of detail in any exit poll.

Not that I know of. I believe Latino Voices have done some polls or Puerto Ricans in FL though, and it's something around the 73:27 split from what I remember seeing.

Anecdotally and culturally though, Trump is a horrible fit, and Hillary is well-respected among Puerto Ricans.

I get that, but at a prior split of 73:27, it's hard to see how even a drop to 95:5 would be enough to tip the state.  Unless we're in 2000 margin territory.

My whole point is, to hang one's hat on Trump losing Florida due entirely to Hispanic shifts, that's going to have to happen through Cubans or it's not going to happen at all.

Not saying you're wrong, but trying to follow your logic. Are you making the case that Trump will outperform Romney among Cubans? Are you accounting for growth of PR community in Central FL, a community that does not have to apply for citizenship and is instinctively Democratic?

Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans have moved to FL since 2012, a lot of my family members included. In Florida, where a couple thousand votes matter, it makes a huge difference.

Which was my point, and I'm glad you have the experience/knowledge to give it more credence.

Uhh, stop saying that Nate adjusted the polls, if you look properly, you'll see that it was Trump +4 to begin with...

Arch knows his facts on this one..

Unfortunately, the Neo-Liberal shock therapy program, that was previously applied in Poland back in 93/94, that Republicans and some Democrats attempted to apply to the Island, did not work at all.

Many left the Island as a direct result to move temporarily back to the mainland, to support family members, in what is the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.

Needless to say, Puerto Ricans are currently not big fans of either the Paul Ryan austerity program, let alone the Trump racist stereotype scene....

(Answers in paragraph order)

:)

That's correct. It's especially dire for young professionals who graduate from the island's excellent public university system. They are left no options but to leave and go to the mainland for job opportunities. Most of the jobs left are just security guard at private companies who pay a measly amount or bagging at local supermarkets. Most of my friends either (anecdotal alert, but not too far from the reality):

1) Became security guards (6/11) [No education]
2) Joined the military (2/11) [No/Some education]
3) Left/Left with their families (3/11) [Degrees min.]

I left for a bunch of other reasons as well, but that's something to be left to a more personal chat.

We love our populism in local Puerto Rican politics, but it do NOT have nationalistic or racial undertones in any way. Politics in Puerto Rico is very different; it's more of an establishment populism. Candidates who behave like Trump are usually cut at the stem, and those aren't even viewed as the embodiment of an ignorant and racist "gringo" as they would say (I don't like this word, but I'm using it for explanation's sake).

Back on topic, I believe polling hasn't really caught scent of the reality of the brain drain movement of Puerto Ricans to FL since 2012 (and even before then), who lean heavily heavily establishment D in the mainland American political system. It might be a shortcoming on all of the polls' toplines if they're not accounting for these sharp population changes in their models. See the .Gif below for a visual representation of the population trends since 1980 by township, with a sharp decline at the turn of the century when things became really fiscally dire.

()

Also, keep in mind that Clinton won PR in a landslide during the primaries, while Rubio ran away with 70%+ of the vote. Now, there may be racial/ethnic factors in play here, but it doesn't exactly look like a Trump-friendly demographic.

This is great stuff. Would be curious sometime to hear your thoughts on statehood movement, I took a survey class on PR in college but the teacher just wanted to talk about communists and the labor movement.