Talk Elections

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 5%

The poll of 779 likely voters statewide was conducted via automated phone calls and web surveys from Sept. 4 through 10. It had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25

I love the lumberjacks!

College poll, college poll.

Congrats, TN.

They elected LePage; Trump is just a step down from there to the bottom or just at the same level. Clinton will win ME-01 and the at-large vote. ME-02 could swing for Trump.

Happy Dance

Never heard of this pollster, but I'll believe Maine being even remotely close when I see it.

You'll better wait until new polls from NH ;)

Wait, whaaat?

You've never heard about SurveyUSA, a top-five pollster according to 538? ???

This thread has a wrong title. Mods, please change it to SurveyUSA! :)

By the sheer amount of times LittleBigOctopus has posted, im sure hes bieng obnoxious.

Ehh, Maine wont be close. Neither will the second district, just like 2012.

They bought the poll that was conducted by...

Ehm why didn't you quote the whole part?
So poll is from Colby College-Boston Globe, but conducted by SurveyUSA ;)

It doesn't matter who conducts it, but who designs it.

Ah woops, I missed that part. I assumed when they said Colby College-Boston Globe poll that they actually meant it was a Colby College-Boston Globe poll. The OP has been changed.

Ehm...







Oh, and this poll was conducted before "Deplorables"/pneumonia...

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The one county that votes Republican only did so by about 4% in 2012. I'm not sure why everyone is so determined to believe that Trump will win ME-2, because it's really not all that favorable to normal Republican presidential candidates. Bush only got 46% there both times.

What do you mean by "designs it"? LV-model?

I don't think, that it works that way...

The methodology can be designed by entity A, yet the project could be conducted by entity B. The quality of the results are primarily restricted by entity A's methodology more than entity B's field practices.

The same logic was used against the PPP polls conducted in a number of states when they were hired by the local Democratic party.

OK. As I said, I don't think, that it works that way. They can probably influence how questions are formulated or which model to use: 2-way/2-way, RV/LV etc. But even then, I think, that political part of the poll is done solely by USASurvey.


The criticism was mainly about that the client chooses whether publish the pol or notl. But I doubt that Boston Globe would do it.

Let's not get bogged down by that, it's a SUSA poll. Important questions: What does this poll mean? Does it mean things? Let's find out.

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Why oh why would you poll Maine statewide instead of CD by CD?

A tie is basically a win for Trump, so this probably the most realistic way an ME-2 win for Trump brings it from a 270 Clinton win to a Trump win by tie:

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Ouch. Imagine if the election comes down to ME-02?

It probably won't, but I'd imagine a few surprised faces around here.

New Poll: Maine President by Survey USA on 2016-09-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320160910019)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 39%, I: 14%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25)

For the amount of time and money Trump has poured into this state, this doesn't really surprise me. I still think ME-02 stays Democratic but Bruce Poliquin is probably favored in his reelection bid.

Statewide. Trump leads by 10 in ME-02.

What poll has said that?

Trump trends best in really white states that are not in the west.

lolnope.

Says who?

Trump won't win Maine, but ME-02 is at least Lean Trump at this point.  He's been ahead in every poll of the district.

The polls. All of them.

By that logic, Wisconsin is at least Lean Clinton, and there have been far more polls there.

TBF, Wisconsin is closer to Likely Clinton.

Can Trump win ME at large?

I think he already has won you at large.

No, barring a complete Clinton collapse.

I know, but ER has Trump winning Wisconsin. ;)

Every single poll of ME-02 has shown Trump ahead, and now a very reputable pollster shows him ahead by 10. I don't know why, but I still just don't see him winning here.

I think it will be close either way. Poliquin is definitely the favorite, though.

Never trust a college pollster (other than Monmouth or Marist).

If you went to the college, you could figure out, it is a poll conducted by SurveyUSA :)

This survey was done by SurveyUSA.

With that said, does anyone see internals for it yet, specifically with the ME-02 breakdown. I don't.

Do you have anything of value to say?

:) ;) :O

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Answering my own question, here are the CD-02 results.

Clinton 37%
Trump 47%
Johnson 8%
Stein 5%
Unsure 4%
397 LV; 9/4-9/10; MOE +/- 5%

http://www.colby.edu/goldfarb/elections/colby-globe-election-poll/

2016 Republican Primary Poll(National)  McClatchy/Marist   3/29 - 3/31   444 RV   
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us160329/MCC/GOP%20Convention/GOP/McClatchy_Marist%20Poll_Republicans%20and%20Convention_Complete%20Survey%20Findings_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_April%202016.pdf

TRUMP 40% | Cruz 35% | Kasich 20%   Trump +5

It was very accurate :p

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I can see Maine-2 being competitive...but Trump +10? Really?

Does anyone recall how accurate CD-polls were in the last few election cycles?

Do you love Oregonian lumberjacks as well? ;)

It's not really appearing that Trump is doing spectacularly well in the logging mill towns and pulp mill towns in Oregon, although not so sure about loggers or "lumberjacks" that are a much smaller segment of the forest products industry.

I don't buy the argument that Maine is only +3 Clinton, although I certainly see an opportunity for Trump in ME-02 and considering the demographics could be a significant trend R this election cycle.

Here's my take: if Maine was actually this close, the Clinton campaign would be pouring resources into Maine. One could argue that the election has only now tightened to the extent that Maine is competitive but, even then, this poll suggests that Maine has an even PVI and the Clinton campaign would have already opened campaign offices in Maine if this was the case.

This is likely...a junk poll! We'll see though, I expect Maine to swing to Trump if Clinton wins by anything less than 5-6 points nationally.

The Clinton campaign is incompetent.