Talk Elections

http://www.texaslyceum.org/resources/Pictures/2016%20Texas%20Lyceum%20Poll%20Day%20Two%20press%20release.pdf

Likely Voters:
Trump - 39
Clinton - 32
Johnson - 9
Stein - 3

Registered Voters: ? Press release says Trump leads by 1 among RV's

2 way:
Clinton - 39
Trump - 35

Swing State TX ...

Nah, TX voters are just fooling around.

Trump easily wins the state by 10+ on election day.

Dayum, Obama has a 56% approval rating with registered voters!

Who did conduct the poll? Texas Lyceum is not in 538 database :-\

wow Abbott has majority approval ratings from all racial groups!

That's because they only conduct yearly polls

These guys who conduct polls should study the LV & RV difference. Why is it so big?

This is fascinating!

Do you... do you really believe that?

Obama is born Hawaii now...

Who? and Nooooooo.

For comparison, http://www.texaslyceum.org/Resources/Documents/TEXAS%20LYCEUM%20POLL/2012%20Lyceum%20Poll%20RELEASE%20DAY%202%20.pdf the poll had Romney leading Obama 58-39 at this time in 2012, the final result was 57-37 in Texas.

Lol, so it is a great news for Trump. He is highly underperforming in largest states TX/CA (where 50% of Hispanics live), while is probably tie with nationally.

Meaning that he is overperforming in blue [swing] states :)

Or......

Nice try Ted Cruz :p


https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_Lyceum


Texas Lyceum

The Texas Lyceum (TL) is a private, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization that was founded in 1980 in Dallas, Texas. The organization seeks to create leaders within Texas by addressing issues such as transportation, education and other community-based issues. The TL organizes public forums, publishes a journal and conducts polls.

The TL also offers annual scholarships to "motivated Texas students, exhibiting leadership qualities, to attain their goals through higher education."[1] The Lyceum is overseen by a board of directors comprised of 96 members from across the state of Texas. Former members include George W. Bush, Rick Perry, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Kay Bailey Hutchison
Mission

Leadership

The following is the list of the executive board:[10]

    Roberta Schwartz, Chairwoman
    Jane Cummins, President
    Dave Shaw, President-elect
    Collin Cox, Immediate Past Chairman

Past president Dathan Voelter established Ted Cruz's pro-presidential campaign Super PACs, Keep the Promise PAC, Keep the Promise II and Keep the Promise III in 2015.
Finances

What? :)

Mmmmm that's nice and all but maybe instead of assuming your usual idiotic biases you should maybe look at this polls track record.

Damn. Surprising.

You forget at one point Clinton appeared to be very strong

What? ???

Wut?

trump is going to win texas (most of all cause texas republicans, to cite rick perry, have a heard regarding the immigration/latino question.)....the question is only if maybe some people are interested to politics this year for the first time and some republicans are voting democratic again or not at all. could be interesting in 2 cycles from now.

So this is an advocacy group. I never knew that.

She has steadily dropped as time goes on especially since Summer 2015, at one point she was boasting massive leads over all challengers in GE matchups.

I think I might still add this to the database so that TX isnt a Tossup anymore... Ugh.

They still nailed 2012, they are allowed to get a matchup wrong a year out, lol

RCP has it as Trump +6 2 way, likely voters

Trump is going to win Texas, but I feel pretty comfortable in saying it'll be within 10 points.

If it's within 10 points and Trump still becomes President, could the next Democratic president run a campaign or even when there?

My concern if I were the Clinton camp is that if Trump is only up by 7 in TX, Clinton is way up in CA and IL by Obama 2012 margins or greater, and national polls has it nearly tied, then Trump better be a lot closer in NY than in 2012 (possible) or places like WI, MI, MN, and PA are most likely a lot closer than 2012 winning margins which could push them into Trump's column. 

Or, more likely, Trump is up by more than 7

Abbott is a good governor and very popular in Texas. And as I've said, if Trump is president and unpopular, Cruz's popularity will go up, he is as #NeverTrump as one can be, and has gone to insanely great lengths to distance himself from Trump.

This is why random pollsters shouldn't be trusted just because you like the results.

I'll take Emerson or PPP polls from Texas over this one....

The point he's making and this pollster's track records don't necessarily contradict. In 2012, as was cited earlier, this pollster would have no reason to fudge the results while they would have a reason in this election. It's very damning how much influence the Cruz faction has on this pollster.

Plus, let's be realistic on this. If Trump is leading in Ohio by +5 and almost in the double digits in Iowa, he's not going to be this close in Texas.

And that confirms that its garbage.

Confusing. Trump is ahead in Ohio and Florida but Texas remains that close.

HISPANICS

With both candidates under 40, these numbers are not reliable. TX turning blue isn't happening.

As a Texan, I can vouch that Trump is well liked here than Kim Jong Un is liked in North Korea. I'm just letting you guys know.

I have difficulty conjuring up enough reasons to ever live in Texas.

Even in inner city areas here in Houston. You'll see Trump/Pence bumper stickers.

I'm sorry. :(

I know. Shockingly they were all Obama guys back in 08 and 12.

What happened?!

I dont these this one is random one like considering they seemed to have gotten 2012 right

Not sure what you mean exactly by "Inner City" Houston.... when I lived out there a year back the city itself was more of a sprawling Meglopolis of 2 Million with so many different neighborhoods that sprawled as well.

There a few heavily Republican precincts in "central city" areas like close to the downtown district and other precincts more over in West Houston close to the Galleria area....

Still confused on what "inner city areas in Houston" you are referring to? Just curious... ;)

Don't bother looking for them here in Austin. You ain't gonna find one.

How are things looking in Williamson (Round Rock) and Hays County these days?

If Dems are going to make Texas a +6-8 Republican only state this election,my thought is that they need to tie the former and flip the latter....

If this poll didn't mirror results from most of the other reputable polls of the state, I would call it junk and move on, but there's definitely something going on in Texas with George W/ Romney/ Cruz Republicans holding out, and/or a significant shift of Latino support for the Party and educated Anglos in suburban metro areas flipping to Hillary.

I don't expect Clinton to win, but I do expect Trump to greatly under perform in counties like Tarrant, Collin and Denton.

East End, Third Ward, Alief. Those areas.

Oh I saw one a few weeks ago.

I also have seen some Hillary Clinton stickers here in Houston as well as Bernie stickers during the primary.

Right now everyone I see is Trump/Pence. Even in the minority poor areas of Houston.

i think the bumper sticker thing is more a sign of motivation than of quantitative dominance.

would be kind of strange anyway if there would be a lot of shy-trump-voters if at the same time he seems to clean most comparisons regarding visibility all over the country.

I wonder if a lot of Cruz fans could thumb their nose to Trump because of how he treated their guy in the primaries.

a new U of Houston poll shows Clinton up 10 pts in Harris County (which Obama won by <2):

chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Clinton-leads-Trump-by-10-in-Harris-County-poll-9239737.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop

Thanks for posting!

Started a new thread on this poll. :)

Trump won by 9% so this poll was pretty close.  And my prediction on what this means came true as well even though Trump did gain ground in NY since 2012.  WI MI MN PA all closer than expected and all except MN went into the Trump column.