Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on September 15, 2016, 12:03:48 pm



Title: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 15, 2016, 12:03:48 pm
45% Trump (R)
37% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 15, 2016, 12:05:47 pm
It was tweeted that this would be a small lead (like Nevada) :)

I love the people of Iowa.
SAFE TRUMP :)


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 15, 2016, 12:06:29 pm
DAMN.

Edit: Bye Iowa, Hello North Carolina.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: StatesPoll on September 15, 2016, 12:07:52 pm


Never trust a college pollster (other than Monmouth or Marist).

()


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 15, 2016, 12:08:09 pm
Holy  F**k :)


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: White Trash on September 15, 2016, 12:08:41 pm
Tan my fur and call me a trench coat..


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Silurian on September 15, 2016, 12:08:58 pm
Can't stump the Trump!


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Figueira on September 15, 2016, 12:09:28 pm
::)


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on September 15, 2016, 12:09:59 pm
Is there any lingering doubt that Iowa is going the way of Missouri over the next decade or so?


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 15, 2016, 12:10:37 pm
Is there any lingering doubt that Iowa is going the way of Missouri over the next decade or so?

We'll trade you Iowa and Wisconsin for North Carolina and Georgia.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: StatesPoll on September 15, 2016, 12:10:54 pm

()

Never trust a college pollster (other than Monmouth or Marist).


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: bilaps on September 15, 2016, 12:11:12 pm
Well, if he's up by 4 or 5 in OH, than 8 in Iowa is pretty logical.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Knives on September 15, 2016, 12:11:46 pm
:(


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: KingSweden on September 15, 2016, 12:12:09 pm
Iowa should be nothing less than Likely R at this point, if it wasn't already. Interesting that this is a state where the local GOP establishment has strongly gotten behind Yrump, more so than any other GOP-controlled state


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: KingSweden on September 15, 2016, 12:12:30 pm
Well, if he's up by 4 or 5 in OH, than 8 in Iowa is pretty logical.

Agreed.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: F_S_USATN on September 15, 2016, 12:12:32 pm
Is there any lingering doubt that Iowa is going the way of Missouri over the next decade or so?

We'll trade you Iowa and Wisconsin for North Carolina and Georgia.

And you'll probably net an extra couple EV's from reapportionment(at least for 2032 cycle).


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 15, 2016, 12:17:09 pm
WV 2000 situation in the making? But yeah, if anything this poll is probably good news for Rod Blum. If IA is even in doubt on election day, Trump loses.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: KingSweden on September 15, 2016, 12:19:27 pm
WV 2000 situation in the making? But yeah, if anything this poll is probably good news for Rod Blum. If IA is even in doubt on election day, Trump loses.

Bet Blum and Young are doing handstands right now. Both of them have good Dem opponents, looks like Trump could carry them over the line


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 15, 2016, 12:20:26 pm
LOL


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 15, 2016, 12:20:29 pm
Only 400+ polled....nothing to brag over but who care we don't need stinking Iowa


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on September 15, 2016, 12:20:52 pm
Monmouth is a good pollster and all, but aren't we calling this one a bit too soon? This is one poll, and other polls have shown a much closer race, not to mention we're in the height of a Trump surge.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 15, 2016, 12:21:06 pm
Is this the same Monmouth that had Trump winning Nevada???


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 15, 2016, 12:21:13 pm
Only 400+ polled....nothing to brag over but who care we don't need stinking Iowa

It would be nice to have though.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 15, 2016, 12:23:59 pm
Only 400+ polled....nothing to brag over but who care we don't need stinking Iowa
Deplorables! ::)


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: KingSweden on September 15, 2016, 12:26:04 pm
Only 400+ polled....nothing to brag over but who care we don't need stinking Iowa

It would be nice to have though.

Exactly. I think Iowa is going through realignment right now.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Maxwell on September 15, 2016, 12:26:54 pm
()


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Spark on September 15, 2016, 12:30:06 pm
Wow that's crazy


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Shadows on September 15, 2016, 12:42:48 pm
Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 15, 2016, 12:46:22 pm
Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Yeah...or CO or NH.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 15, 2016, 12:50:45 pm
Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Nobody respects Bernie Sanders. He won't help


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Shadows on September 15, 2016, 12:57:55 pm
Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Yeah...or CO or NH.

CO looks difficult, I think it will be the next blue state similar to NM. I don't see CO in play. Even NH should not be in play but I think Trump will be strong in New England, Maine & NH, he will do better than most Republicans.

Clinton was +16 in NH in 1 poll & then suddenly +2 in another. People come to judgement way too early.

Trump has to win 1 of PA, VA, Michigan or Wisconsin or win all 3 of NH, IW, NV & NH looks  very tough especially considering Bernie will be campaigning hard there.
it

If Trump is leading in a PA or a VA poll, I will be legit scared!

Nobody respects Bernie Sanders. He won't help

Sanders has already campaigned 2ce for Hillary in NH. And he is campaigning for Maggie Hassan in NH as well to wrest Kelly Ayotte's seat. I think Obama will campaign in NH as well.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez! on September 15, 2016, 01:35:32 pm
Iowa should be nothing less than Likely R at this point, if it wasn't already. Interesting that this is a state where the local GOP establishment has strongly gotten behind Yrump, more so than any other GOP-controlled state

That ought to send some local and state Republicans a message, eh?


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Kempros on September 15, 2016, 01:51:20 pm
Way too early to make a call in this race but Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine seem to be moving right while North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Virginia seem to be moving left. History can't be easily predicted, however, that is the way it looks this year.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: KingSweden on September 15, 2016, 02:19:53 pm
Iowa should be nothing less than Likely R at this point, if it wasn't already. Interesting that this is a state where the local GOP establishment has strongly gotten behind Yrump, more so than any other GOP-controlled state

That ought to send some local and state Republicans a message, eh?

Well, depends. They moved to him much earlier than anyone else and Branstad has great org here. Iowa IS also trending right if you take 2014 into consideration and this is the kind of Obama state whose demos should favor Trump.

Still doubt he wins by 8, but he's the favorite here.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: EpicHistory on September 15, 2016, 02:31:03 pm
Monmouth is a good pollster and all, but aren't we calling this one a bit too soon? This is one poll, and other polls have shown a much closer race, not to mention we're in the height of a Trump surge.

The mental jujitsu is strong with this one.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on September 15, 2016, 03:17:26 pm
538 adjusted this to Trump +9


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Eraserhead on September 15, 2016, 03:25:49 pm
She's in big, big trouble at the moment. I don't know if it'll last but there's no reason to pretend otherwise.

Either way the (R) swing in Iowa is going to be ridiculous this year.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on September 15, 2016, 03:27:43 pm
So what's up with the Clinton collapse and Trump surge  right now?


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: EpicHistory on September 15, 2016, 03:30:30 pm

The fact Iowa is going to be almost double digits to the right of Virginia is incredible, considering how different it was as recently as 2004.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Kempros on September 15, 2016, 03:42:17 pm
Well, it may look the Colorado may go back as a tossup. Not sure how credible.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Stockdale for Veep on September 15, 2016, 03:48:40 pm
Commence rotating primary order.

()


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: North Fulton Swing on September 15, 2016, 03:55:43 pm
Iowa was always going to be difficult for Hillary to win--dating back to her 3rd place finish in the 2008 caucus.  Trump is benefiting from a unified Republican establishment and a substantial evangelical vote.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: NOVA Green on September 15, 2016, 03:59:36 pm
At this point it looks like Iowa is really starting to slip away from Clinton as a possibility....

One starts to wonder if it's getting to the point of considering pulling resources from here unless Clinton starts moving back to a 4-5% national lead.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Panda Express on September 15, 2016, 04:43:54 pm
https://youtu.be/4i89SKgfKUU?t=26 (https://youtu.be/4i89SKgfKUU?t=26)


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 16, 2016, 11:41:00 am
Bad! But size sample is relaitively small. The fake billionaire may be up one or two at this very moment. No reason to panic.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Representative Carpetbagger on September 16, 2016, 11:55:50 am
Doubt it.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: pbrower2a on September 16, 2016, 10:29:04 pm
But I;m not counting on Iowa continuing as likely D indefinitely. I see signs that Iowa is beginning to look politically more like another state whose name begins with I and ends in an A. Iowa voted in Joni Ernst.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on September 16, 2016, 10:32:54 pm
i was baffled sincw years that a rural, white, religious state like iowa was at the same time so dem-friendly....trump is in my opinion a slayer of contradictions.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 16, 2016, 11:16:19 pm
i was baffled sincw years that a rural, white, religious state like iowa was at the same time so dem-friendly....trump is in my opinion a slayer of contradictions.
3 words: Reagan(ism) screwed farmers.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: EpicHistory on September 17, 2016, 01:24:25 am
Bad! But size sample is relaitively small. The fake billionaire may be up one or two at this very moment. No reason to panic.

Even during the Clinton surge back in August, he had the state tied or held a slight lead. Since that time, the polls have consistently shown him establishing a lead and increasing upon it. Personal incredulity at the fact Iowa is trending very Republican does not change this.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Gabagool102 on September 17, 2016, 01:41:44 pm
Well, this is somewhat surprising :D


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on September 17, 2016, 01:55:45 pm
Time to change this one to blue on my prediction map. I doubt Hillary can make up an 8 point deficit here. Iowa's gone, with the wind...


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: JJC on September 17, 2016, 05:03:15 pm
Hello everyone. First post here. Been following this site for a while and finally decided to make an account.

Yeah, I definitely see Iowa voting more to the right for this election than usual. It has a very high white population (over 90%), many of which are blue-collar workers, which bodes well for Trump.

Honestly, Romney probably would have won the state if he could have connected with this group more.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Lok on September 17, 2016, 05:08:26 pm
So what's up with the Clinton collapse and Trump surge  right now?

The media spinning Clinton's 'deplorables' comment and pneumonia incident negatively because they want their horse race.


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Ozymandias on September 21, 2016, 12:53:22 am
Can someone explain to me how it is that 538 is adjusting EVERY Iowa poll in favor of Trump?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/

Doesn't that indicate a fundamental flaw in their adjustment methodology?


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 21, 2016, 09:52:53 am
Can someone explain to me how it is that 538 is adjusting EVERY Iowa poll in favor of Trump?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/

Doesn't that indicate a fundamental flaw in their adjustment methodology?
Trend lines. The polls were taken while the nation was bluer, so it figures that Iowa would be redder now


Title: Re: IA-Monmouth: Trump +8
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 21, 2016, 10:06:08 am
I know it's one of the best States demographically for Drumpf, but come on.