Talk Elections

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http://www.theecps.com/ (http://www.theecps.com/)

What's causing trump to surge lately?

Yeah trump is probably favored at this second

Emerson strikes again.

I said today, I didn't have a favorite pollster. I lied :-[ :-[ :-[

Here we go!

Last time, they were totally right :D

Why are we even posting Emerson polls at all? Wasn't Emerson pretty much discredited a week or two ago?

Omg what is happening.....

wtf is going on in colorado.

Trump only +6 in GA in what a most likely a very Republican-favoring poll seems to be in line with recent polling out of there, wonder what's causing that?

Emerson is making America great again! Give them five Pepes!

Again no, but keep going on. 

Why were polls from a month ago, conducted by Democratic-advocacy groups, posted yesterday?

Clinton is mean to "deplorables."

According to Dems, all the polls are much discredited because of their methodology (right, Senator Polnut?)...

Has there ever been a collapse this epic in our polling lifetimes?

Cool, now if we could get someone to call cell phones in these states, we could combine the results and get some real polls. ::)

OP should note they also found Trump + 2 nationally

I am ready to say that this race is probably lean R at this time. But it seems that Democrats are doing OK down ballot in MO and CO. It looks like the Senate could still be competitive even if Clinton loses by a margin.

God I wish the Republicans had a REAL candidate in Colorado. But maybe it's a blessing in disguise since it would take resources from other races, and still be tough. For what it's worth the NRSC stopped airing attacks against Bennet (glad they're not wasting money) and in a video they posetd yesterday with (almost) all their candidates, Darryl Glenn was excluded (as were Mike Crapo and John Hoeven, strangely). Of course, Kelly Ayotte was one of the most prominently featured ones, ugh.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I-3KzzxEqLA

I would wait for something better than Emerson and after the debates before the freakout.

Landline only robo polls = junk

If Trump can win IA/NV/CO, he doesn't need PA.

This is scary. My endorsement returns to Hillary for now. She needs every single vote.

This.

Great to see this is causing the fascists to jump on the Hillary train! Splendid! Just terrific!

This; but it's interesting to see GA so close with this methodolay, as well as in the other GA poll released today (T+5 T+4).  I'll predict now that the final margin in GA will be less than 3 points, though I think Trump does win the state.

And Kander+2 in conjunction with Trump+13 in MO?  Wow!

Not buying CO polls until QU polls it and Selzer for Iowa.

COLORADO= Trump's "one more state"!!

Prior to this poll, it seemed like Trump had a really good shot at 266 votes, but was struggling to have that "one more state" to win:

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He would have to win one of the green "tiny tilt D" states to win.  Now, this poll shows CO as reasonable, and maybe some of the others are as well.

With co, nv, ohio, Fl and iowa going trumps way...I'd say it is now his to lose.

He sucks but I guess this is what America wants.

Wow! You're basically a first Democrat here who respects democracy. Kudos!

Considering Trump has no respect for democratic institutions, this post is incredibly ironic.

Do you support super delegates?

Don't get carried away by one Colorado poll.  Clinton is still the favorite there at this point.  And Florida is at best a tossup.

Trump has clearly had all the momentum in the last week, but we've seen big momentum swings both ways in this campaign.  There's a long way to go until Nov. 8. 

Grassley is outperforming Trump which overstates his margin there.

Exactly. A month ago Clinton was in striking distance in SC, after all

There seems like there is going to be many "new" Democratic states, and many "new" republican states this time. What a historic election cycle.

The Arkansas number seems a bit high for Trump.... relatively inelastic state with a high Dem floor and low ceiling.

I can buy the GA & MO numbers if you take a couple points off because of the automated landline only system that Emerson uses.

I'm extremely skeptical about the Colorado poll results, like most others have said we'll need to see more data to see how tight the race really is there.

National polling numbers are probably slightly favorable to Trump, since at this point it looks like really this is more like a Clinton +1-2% lead based on the overall polling consensus and statewide numbers.

I'm a 20 year old college student that just moved to Texas from Minnesota and college is 50% cheaper compared to the community colleges, probably because in Minnesota you have to pay tuition for those who are on welfare. Minnesota needs a change for once. Clinton represents a lot of those who don't work and don't pay anything to this country.

Please reconsider.

Emerson was the worst pollster during the primary but apparently the posters here take every landline only junk they post as gospel.

Trump is surging because he hasn't done anything too outrageous lately and expectations for him are so low.

I don't take Emerson as gospel, but when their polling numbers (GA and MO) actually are relatively similar to other polling organizations, I'll subtract/add a few points because of their antiquated polling model in an era, where many Americans, myself included, only have cellphones, and even then I won't answer the phone if I don't recognize the number, so without companies leaving a VM or even polling using a TM, I'll never be polled. I suspect that is the case for a huge proportion of the American public these days.

The more people realize it the better.  She's an Ivy League elitist funded by Goldman Sachs who thinks she has the right to dictate which healthcare plan people can buy. 

I hope you like that state of the roads in Texas.... ;)

Probably not the best thread to discuss different methods of state funding for social services (Or lack thereof). I am a bit confused about your conflating community college tuition with "welfare" (Whatever exactly that means--- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment Insurance, SCHIPS, emergency food assistance "food stamps").

Be that as it may, we haven't yet seen any real polls from Minnesota and a ton of polls from Texas that show the race much closer than expected, which appear to indicate that Trump still has issues consolidating the Anglo College Educated voters in many states.

It does appear that there aren't enough of these voters in MO to make the state within a potential striking range for Clinton, but does appear to be a major factor in GA & CO.

Not surprised to see people eating up these results. Emerson is garbage, though.

So Ebsy---- do you think these numbers from MO are realistic based upon your statewide knowledge and sense on the ground?

I'm thinking these numbers from MO are relatively reasonable, and from the same poll that shows the DEM candidate for Senate +2% !

Has Trump consolidated support in the 'burbs of KC and Saint Louis, or is this more a Clinton collapse "downstate" like the Ozark regions/ Springfield, the "Southern Boot", "Farm Country"?

Stop lying, biatch!
Emerson is not the best poll, of course. It is just a average pollster. B rating with R+1.3 house effect according to 538.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions)

Off by more than 4 points?

Note: Stein isn't on the ballot in GA, she's only available as a write-in.

Do you think Trump makes Manhattan competitive again?

The CO and MO numbers here are total garbage when compared to national polls. AR and GA seem believable. Whether you think Trump is leading in Colorado right now or not (I personally doubt it, but considering the recent shift it probably can't be ruled out), the weight of basically every poll conducted this cycle to date, along with the very unfavorable demographics of the state, suggest that CO is going to be more Democratic than the nation as a whole.


Remember when Manhattan was the only county in New York that he lost in the primary lol

Oh thank God.

But seriously - we are actually buying these polls? OK. This is why Democrats can't have nice things.

ofc the poll is junk...like many others...and there is no trend to follow in this case....and the season seems to have enough outliers to lose the bigger picture entirely....but..... it follows the way of the race during the last week, even if all the numbers are trash.

Manhattan was purple until the 90's.  Also for those of you questioning polls, I'm sure they're a little off, but if he's up by 13, are you actually questioning his lead?  Even 4 points is alot to dispute.  Point is he's doing better and not how legitimate a polls is.

Colorado!!!! Since a few months ago, I told you it gonna be red in 2016 ;)
Hillary's 'Firewall' is collapsed! :p


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Wow, these are b.a.d numbers for Hillary ... :o

An indicator that these Presidential results are more or less fine is that the Senate results are not that bad for the Dems. For example Bennet is far ahead in CO, while Hillary trails, and Kander is also ahead in MO - while Hillary gets crushed there.

I think what's interesting about that point is that Trump is pulling away in states that have Senate races in which Republicans are winning by large margins, and is tied or close in swing state where Rs and Ds have slight lead or Dem leading by single digits.

Ah well, we still have a lot of the president race to go. 3 debates that will change everything. Don't count on ANYTHING happening right now.

Not sure how credible the polls are, but there is a difference between facts and stuff that you want to hear.

Plus, #UnskewthePoll for Red Avatars ;)

Emerson, Colorado 9/9-9/13, 600 LV.   Page 14
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_784e507857734ddb84b32e9d6ee1022c.pdf
Democrats 34.2% | Republican 29.4% | Independent 36.4%

1) Colorado: Party Affiliation (September,2016).  Rep = DEM
Active + inactive = Total 3.71 Million Registered Voters.
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html
http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2016/September/VotersByPartyStatus.pdf

Rep: 976k(Active) + 164k(Inactive) = 1.14 Million (30.7%)
DEM: 973k(Active) + 186k(Inactive) = 1.16 Milion (31.2%)

Turnouts: TRUMP > Hillary

So This poll is skewed, DEM +3%, REP -1.3%.   4.3%!!!!
Consdering that, It should be adjusted as TRUMP +3%, Hillary -3%.
Then! TRUMP 42+3=45% | Hillary 38-3=35%.  10% leads ;)


Colorado!!!! Since a few months ago, I told you it gonna be red in 2016 ;)
Hillary's 'Firewall' is collapsed! :p
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Not worried Bennett has no real credible challenge and there aren't many ticket splitters in Denver