Talk Elections

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 5%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16.

This pollster has an A rating on 538.

Never heard of this pollster... Probably junk. C+5 sounds more like it

But muh Trump surge?!?


A rating on 538, with a 0.5 Republican bias

Post "bad weekend"

ABSOLUTELY TREMENDOUS!

Oh. Oh my... Still tempted to say this is an outlier, but I wouldn't be shocked to see C+7 given this, and C+5 or so nationally (agrees with Gallup)

Mornings Call wasn't bad in 2012. They had Obama leading by 5 at the end of October.

Clinton is probably leading Pennsylvania, but by 9? This was taken completely after the pneumonia and deplorables, too. Probably junk.

Hillary continues to dominate in the Southeast part of the state 56-26. Philly suburbs will carry the state for Clinton.

They're not a bad pollster though so I wouldnt classify it as junk just yet.

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.

Also taken partially during the birther controversy. Probably didn't go over well with the college educated in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Looks like PA might actually trend D this time.

Well, either Pennsylvania is definitely falling away or people are lying to the survey.

Maybe an outlier, but certainly not "junk."

538 has Muhlenberg with an A rating and R+0.5 basis.

Give that the MOE is 5.5%, I think C+7 makes some sense as a result.

Awesome news! Go Clinton.

Hopefully, she can get ahead again in Florida and NEV.

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

So it's not going to happen...

taking which numbers? 538/RCP-average? ^^

Maybe Wisconsin, but Colorado is too educated for Trump.

can't imagine that clinton would lose WI without proto-liberal feingold losing too and that seems like a no-go anyway.

feingold is going to energize the fringle-liberal part of the elecotorate for sure and WI republicans seemed to hate trump for a long time...looks like the swallowed him more or less but i am not so sure about their motivation level.

I'm so disappointed that he won't be winning here. C +3 in the end.

I don't think she's ahead by 9. Last poll was from Quinnipiac at +5 and that was just before 'The Fall'. I doubt she's gained since then, which goes against the trends.

I know, I know. Different pollsters and methodologies.

But my gut tells me this state is within five points.

If he wins OH, FL, NC, and IA, he can afford to lose Nevada if he gets WI and ME-02. He's essentially got to the point he has several viable strategies to win this now.


Colorado and Wisconsin were only around 4-8% for Clinton back during her August high time, and given how much Trump has surged since then, it's foolish to pretend like Trump pick ups can't happen there.


538.

The ONLY Obama '12 states I'm really concerned about (right now) are OH and IA. NV is impossible to poll properly, so fundamentals help Clinton but it's a second-tier concern right now.

There's a rumor that Marist is about to drop a PA poll showing a tie.

It's a rumor. Take it for what it's worth.

It's only a gut call, but I think we'll see a divide between polls taken at the start of the week versus the last 2 days. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few closer polls in PA.

Uh, lol. Want to point us to your sources or are you an amdcpus sock?

That's why we have averages.

I've seen nothing on a Google and Twitter search.

their recent map doesn't really look like your scenario.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Brandon Finnigan from twitter (not the baseball player). Sorry, I can't post links yet.

Brandon Finnigan, formally known as CAC, is a respected prognosticator who founded DecisionDesk HQ. Again, take rumors for what they're worth.

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yes that's right bitches

I've read through his stream of tweets today, he's guessing.

I'm 95% sure he's joking.

Agreed, he's had more tweets saying that the Republican polling showing Clinton up in Bucks County means that Trump is losing the state by more.

in fact, a tied poll wouldn't surprise me at all....especially since this poll here is the other kind of "outlier" and marist seems to see half the country tied.

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/776948780058841088
https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/777267657707925504

Are these the hints? Regardless, he seems pretty convinced Trump is out of the game in Pennsylvania based on the Morning Call poll.

Looking at the RCP average and previous polls, this isn't actually an outlier.

in fact the polls alone can't be the reason why all eyes are on PA since the polls look closer in MI and WI since quite some time but no republican seems to really but it.


after the trump-leaning vermont and good old republican utah i am pretty sure we are going to see a poll this cycle which brings about any state into anyone's reach.

Philadelphia's suburbs pretty much dominate the statewide vote, which makes it impossible for Trump to win the state.

Funny how IA and PA are now apparently 16 points apart, when they voted exactly the same in 2012 ...

it's like illinois on a smaller scale...there are theoretically enough votes to kill phillie and some areas of the country are going red and becoming redder but it's a lot harder than in ohio and republicans didn't really shine regarding GOTV in comparison.

Illinois also doesn't have another major city on the other side of the state that's as Democratic as Pittsburgh.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Michigan polling sucks. And Wisconsin was polling to the left of Pennsylvania until PA was barraged with the Clinton and PrioritiesUSA ads. They could win Wisconsin by 10 but they're probably happy winning by 5 if it ends up that close.

That Swedish tool is conspicuously absent from this thread...

Agree this may be a little too friendly to Hillary, though

Don't see why, it's within the ballpark

This one poll moved the entire 538 forecast about 1.5 points to Clinton

The Ohio polls were pulling down the numbers in PA.

this election is my personal sequel to the endless drama of my own austrian presidential election last spring, which was the most intense nail-biter which my country (and i myself) has ever endured (and is getting repeated next december cause of the great public demand)......

i have tried for years to understand the US of A and its political system and now have realized, all those pretty rules are meant to be broken and all polling logic must be forgotten for this hellish rollercoaster.....

as a political geek i can't decide if this is heaven, hell or both....but i am pretty sure, ohio and PA won't be won by the same candidate this time.

SKIP

LOL, "great public demand" ?

More because "the FPÖ challenged the original result and the High Court ruled in favour" ... :P

SKIP

pardon, i think i need a kind of sarcasm tag. :) in fact, i am pretty sure the demand for a december election is so low that the turnout will invent new bottoms to drop at.

400 LV = Not enough sample size for PA (Could be ok for NV,NH but not for PA)

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Yeah, I figured so ...

But let's discuss turnout etc. in the Austrian election thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221414.msg5266878#msg5266878).

Thank you PA.

good try... this is still outside the 99% confident MOE, much less the 95%. PA is trending Clinton

The HILLDAWG BEATDOWNs have resumed.

Sit down.

On the basis of one poll? Sure.....

Indeed!

GREAT POLL!  Absolutely consistent with the best the Orange Douchebag will do aka Obama 2008.

Thank you SE PA and your beautiful gaggle of college-educated whites and astute blacks and browns!

Bad news for Trump :(

The only hope is small  sample size (as I was arguing in Monmouth thread),  but still SAD!

PA: Google Consumer Surey, 9/7-9/13, '831' LV (431 more than Muhlenberg Poll)
TRUMP 36% | Hillary 34% | Johnson 9%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#now

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Yeah, no change in Pennsylvania. The states remains blue.

That's not how sample sizes work when your population is in the millions.  There's a negligible difference between the margin of error for a n=400 sample poll of Pennsylvania versus New Hampshire or Nevada.  If your entire shtick is poll interpretation, you might want to take some time to learn basic statistics first.

Philadelphia was the birthplace of America. It stands firm in preventing its downfall and demise.

The margins Hillary is apparently putting up in the Philly suburbs are just amazing. Some are making analogies to Illinois here. I would say that it seems like Philly and its suburbs are acting collectively close to Cook County, which I think is a pretty good analogy this year. If Hillary wins the suburbs by 30+ points and carries Philadelphia by the usual Democratic margin, the whole area could indeed rival Cook County. (Obviously, the big difference is that Chicagoland represents a much bigger part of IL than Philly+suburbs does of PA mostly on account of Chicago being a much bigger city than Philadelphia. Philadelphia and its suburbs don't really come close to Cook County and obviously, that's why IL is Safe D and PA is not.)

It is also Johnson's best result so far. 14% :o

The now-cast shifted by almost 4% towards Clinton :D

An intresting article about among other the importance of PA
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot)

   
Quinnipiac national 960 LV
Muhlenberg PA 403 LV
sounds good.

This election is so y, no one believes the polls.

Wait, people are freaking out about a poll with a 5.5% MOE, 400 sample size?

Looks like Trump is only winning PA if he wins yuuuuge nationally. Numbers are probably a shade high, but it's clear he's not making the progress he'd like to see here. Perhaps the similarities between Ohio and PA have been overestimated?

Philly is just a different beast that Columbus, Cleaveland or Cincinnati. And Youngstown, Dayton, Toledo, Canton, and Akron are just big towns, really.

I guess The Donald will be spending a lot of time in Denver and environs. That appears to be the only viable path left to him at the moment. Well, I guess there is NH perhaps. Don't tell TN that I mentioned NH!

Good point. Hillary could be leading by 14.5%.  :P

The MOE of victory is actually ~9%, so Clinton "might be" +20% :D

Hillary > 400 EV's confirmed...jk

I think Wisconsin is the better option than Colorado. Even Nevada I see going to Clinton as long as the poll aggregate is within a point or two favoring Trump. New Hampshire is possible as well but you need either Nevada, Colorado or Wisconsin along with it. Michigan I am not as concerned about. Overall, I am expecting some swing back to Clinton from Johnson/Stein among core anti-trump voters. This will help Hillary more in Colorado and even Nevada than among working class whites.

The Senate numbers seem too Democratic as well, which, in a weird way comfort me that they just got to Democratic/liberal of a sample.

Over sampling of Philly area I bet

a ready explanation is that voters in that region tilting between Obama and Romney aren't likely to go Trump.

On what basis do you conclude that?  Some actual numbers?

Some relief.

Kasich was the only GOPer to win Pennsylvania or VA and this race would be over.

Slightly OT, but I saw Muhlenberg and it reminded me of the old country song about Muhlenberg County, Kentucky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

I looked up the Uni, and found that they are based out of Allentown PA....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHnJp0oyOxs


Back on topic, Lehigh County is a county that trended heavily Republican in 2000 and 2004, swung hard towards Obama in '08 and stayed +8 Dem in '12, but trended against the statewide PVI.

Muhlenberg County, Kentucky was only a 50-48 Obama win in '08 and swung to a 61-38 Romney win in '12.

Previously 50-49 Bush Jr (2004), 52-46 Gore (2000)....

This poll is likely a few points too friendly to Clinton, although it is consistent with PA numbers overall holding up....

Meanwhile we have places like Lehigh County PA (Allentown), and Muhlenberg County KY that used to be solid New Deal Democrat union towns.... Will Trump be able to make huge inroads into these types of communities to build a winning coalition in OH and PA????

Regardless, please listen to the classic tunes and although we are in height of political season, there is a real story going on in communities like these....

Outside Chicagoland, Illinois is about as Republican as Indiana. 

<3

Not quite, it's more like Missouri. Clinton won it by comfortable margins in 1992 and 1996.

Missouri has Kansas City and St. Louis and is otherwise very rustic. Outside of Chicagoland, Illinois' big cities (such as they are) do not sum up to Indianapolis.

Bill Clinton won West Virginia in 1992 and 1996; it is not the same state in its politics now. Southern Missouri even looks much like West Virginia.