Talk Elections

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

I'll update as I get more.

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Great results! She's bouncing back graciously.

Great poll (Now I wait for the senate numbers which i really shouldnt hope for)

This is very nice to see. Wonder when it was taken.

Rubio only +2 as well

Damn...

Whoa! Much more than I expected

Their last one was Clinton +9 though.

Despite declining; ha!

I know Florida was Clinton +9 according to Monmouth the last time they polled it, and immediately thought it was an outlier. I think this one is a bit more accurate and a great poll for Hillary

9/16-9/19

monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

When was that one taken? Was it during the bounce?

Also last poll was 8/12-15

The OP updated his initial post to include ....

What a lovely poll!!

The last poll was in early August.

Goes against every recent forida poll. Even the august poll was an outleir .

*A+

Florida will be slightly to the right of DC if Google's to be believed.

FWIW, Monmouth's 9-point Hillary lead was somewhat higher than what most others were showing at that time. Doesn't necessarily mean that it was inaccurate though, or this one.

Folks do not joke yourselves clearly an outleir

Two possibilities:

1. Some or most of the polls are sh**t.
2. The realignment is on.

The Siena Poll is Clinton +3 or Clinton +4 if you apply different LV screens. This may be at the outer edge, but it's not ridiculous, especially if we're correcting from an artificial blip for Trump.

And it could be Trump +1

It's time to move on. Hopefully, we just get President Tim Kaine and that's that.

Hence averages

Also true.

Clinton +9 in Florida would be an outlier. If we assume Clinton's recovering, as it looks like she is, Clinton +5 is a reasonable result. If she's not recovering and the race is still Clinton +1/2 nationally, with Trump having big problems with Hispanics, Clinton +5 looks like outer edge of reasonable range.

RIP TRUMP. Looks like the angry Puerto Ricans are giving him a good thrashing here.

Oh sh**t....
()

But '400' LV = Not enough Sample size for Yuge State FL

With a recent analysis of trump falling an additional 1 to 2 points with Hispanics, a Clinton +5 in Florida could be an accurate picture.

This does seem a bit Clinton-friendly, especially since their last poll was even more Clinton-friendly, but the head of Monmouth did say that polls this week would tell a different story from polls last week. I'll eat my shoe if NV is seven points to the right of FL, but it's possible that things were just abysmal for Hillary last week, and that she's improving.

If Hillary gets an overwhelming win in the first debate next week though...

We are very angry.

False.

to get 95% confidence with a 5% error (most polls aim for this) you need 384 completes in a population of 10 million.

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

And the population doesn't really matter that much. You need the exact same number for a state with 2 million, or even 500k.

He's recovered 4 points since his trough and now things have stabilized. If She was 8ish and now down to 2ish, she could still be leading here if Florida has moved a couple of points to the left.

I'll take an A+ pollster as closer to reality than most of the other recents, considering that Florida is a tougher state to poll than most.

The numbers might be a point or two high for Clinton, but would definitely be concerned about this poll if I were part of Team Trump.

I believe the positive aspect of the "deplorables" comment is now starting to kick in for Clinton, based on this poll and a few others.

The immediate effect was obviously negative, but the Trump campaign's criticism of that comment is now facing backlash in the form of increased support for Clinton, from her supporters.

They jumped in the field 2 days after NYT Upshot/Siena was done, so this might even show a growing trend for Clinton here.


I think a 4 day discussion on birtherism was main reason the numbers have started to move.

Florida - 35 counties exceeded, total 50k votes in Election 2012
Iowa - only 6 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012
Nevada - only 2 counties exceeded total 50k votes in Election 2012 (Clarck,Washoe there)
 
so 400 LV = not enough volume for Florida.

lol at Statespoll just making stuff up. Why is this troll not banned?

This is entirely possible, especially considering Obama's extremely high approval numbers, and even a huge number of Republicans believing that this was a politically motivated shift in position, and not his actual attitudes. We'll need to wait a few more days to see if this trend continues, and even then there is a potential wildcard/distortions as a result of the NY/NJ terror story news cycle.

Or, you know. It isn't September 14 anymore.

Marty--- this is factually inaccurate (Bolded relevant sentence). I went through and reread all of the Red Avatar posts regarding Monmouth-IA poll, and the reality is that the vast majority of posters weren't "crapping over Monmouth polls", but rather collectively "crapping their pants" over an incredibly strong performance for Trump from a high quality polling firm.

In fact many red avatars, and whatever unknown "homosexuals" from various states on the forum (Insert bizarre comment that you made) went to a point where many were positing Team Clinton should maybe scale down resources in Iowa and shift to other states....

As I stated earlier, I would much rather take an A+ pollster than junk polling firms to reflect an accurate picture within a fixed period of time.  Personally, I think FL has now shifted to a slight Clinton lead, but there are many unknowns with voting models and polling assumptions in states with fast growing net inmigration/outmigration regarding what the actual composition of the electorate will be come November.

The number of observations in the population to sample is irrelevant to the precision of sample estimators.

Great poll!

Looking forward to more results!

Because he makes us feel better about ourselves and our life choices. Considering the amount of time we spend on a place like this, Statespoll is a living testament that "you know, life isn't all bad, you could be him"

Wise words.  They are BEYOND MIFFED at Trump and his racism.  Color it Atlas Red, folks!

Good news. Trump is already losing momentum.

Despite of this outlier Poll(little '400' LV)
Liberal's hero 'Nate Silver' says, TRUMP has 60.0% Chance of winning Florida ;)
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#now

The more you post about "liberal hero 'Nate Silver'" adjusting in favor of Trump a few points or favoring Trump more than mainstream pundits, it makes him seem less and less like a liberal hero.

Statespoll posting about anything diminishes its credibility.

Because we all want to see him melting down on election night (or the day after) when his hero Mr. Drumpf goes down in flames at the polling stations.

Why hasn't fraudster Nate Silver added this poll to the 538 database? Odd, he has added in the Monmouth poll showing Trump up 8 in Iowa, but he hasn't added in the Monmouth or St Leo polls that have Clinton up 5 in Florida. Is Nate being bought out by his corporate RNC buddies?

He has added both polls.

For some reason, the most recent polls don't pop up at the top of the list. Monmouth is the 6th item down I believe and St Leo is I believe even further down.

Makes it really annoying when trying to go through multiple states... :(

I see both of them there.

They're sorted by weight.

Look for the little gray circles on the left for the most recently added polls.

My bad, I figured the newest polls would be added to the top.

ty for that tip fellow Oregonian. :)

GTFO.