Talk Elections

Clinton:44
Trump:42
2 Way LV

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%
2 Way RV

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 38%
Johnson: 11%
Stein: 2%
4 Way LV

Clinton:39%
Trump:35
Johnson:12%
Stein:3%
4 Way RV

Wisconsin? Marquette?

What state is this, and link?

Wisconsin
https://mobile.twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778645810653306880

This is WI/Marquette poll

4 way LV: Clinton 41, Trump 38, Johnson 11, Stein 2
4 way RV: Clinton 39, Trump 35, Johnson 12, Stein 3
2 way RV: Clinton 43, Trump 38

So no change in the 4-way, Clinton loses 1 point in the 2-way. Wisconsin is Lean Dem

It's currently being live tweeted.

Nice to see that the bleeding here essentially stopped. Interesting that neither campaign is reacting like the state is a 2 point margin.

Could be worse.

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

So basically almost basically no change since August?

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

Could be worse, seems to be flat since August. It may have drifted to Trump slightly in Interim

Pretty close to a tossup. Clinton should be performing better here.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

So... PA cannot be Clinton +8, when Wisconsin is Clinton +2, but then, by the same token, Charles Franklin used the NYT data and found Clinton up 3 in Florida? Dude... the states are moving around this year... stop comparing to 2012.

lol

WI has a completely different make up from PA and CO.

lol, what a dumb post

PA and CO have a much higher % of college educated whites. That makes a big difference.

Potentially concerning, but I'll get worried about Wisconsin when (if?) a poll shows Trump ahead.

1.Trump has never led in a WI poll. At this point in 2012 Romney had already led in WI, including in a poll by PPP.
2.Those undecideds will break heavily for Hillary, this is one of the few "swing" states where she has hit 50% on more than one occasion. MU had her at 52-37% among LV after the DNC. Trump will never win WI.

Seriously, those two states are closer to VA then they are to WI.

Terrifying numbers - the only relief is she's doing better in the four way and Trump's number (42%) isn't really anything to brag about.

In other news, Russ up a bit to +6. So, undecideds must still lean Dem for him to be pulling away and her to be stuck. Amazing how a shift of 0 is being treated as the sky falling.

If Clinton is campaign there or both sides put adds up, then I'd get worried.

This shouldn't be unexpected given how far Iowa has swung. Still part of the freiwal.

you mean august,2012 poll
PPP (D)   8/16 - 8/19   1308 LV   2.7   Obama 47 Romney 48   Romney +1

Romney did worse at mid-late september,2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls

Marquette University   9/27 - 9/30   894 LV   Obama 53   Romney 42   Obama +11
WeAskAmerica                  9/20 - 9/23   1238LV     Obama 53   Romney 41   Obama +12
PPP (D)                           9/18 - 9/19   842 LV      Obama 52   Romney 45   Obama +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist              9/16 - 9/18   968 LV    Obama 50   Romney 45   Obama +5
 
Plus, Romney had turnouts problem.
Now Hillary has, less than 200 people in Philly rally.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

All things considered, MULaw Poll has been rather consistent since June:

Among Reg voters, Clinton up 7, 7, 10, 5, 5. Wisconsin, it would seem, is not really all that elastic. Not surprising given our polarization.

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lol everyone stop being Beet. Hillary will win WI by 9 or 10 points.

LOL, it was Romney who got the big crowds in 2012. You just disproved your own point.

I'm not sure it'll be by that much, especially if the race remains this tight, but I'm confident WI will go for Hillary in close race.

Obama's approval is +13 here.

Romney got big crowds in October right before the election but Obama was also getting huge crowds throughout.  I remember he had a 15k+ crowd in Ohio and a 10K crowd in VA all the way back in May 2012.

It was only in the last month that Romney caught up in crowd size.  Maybe Clinton will as well although I doubt it.  Having big crowds and enthusiasm is an advantage but difficult to say how much especially if it is like Trump's support.  He has 15-20M people that are very enthusiastic but most others aren't.

Not bad for Trump. Probably the most likely FREIWAL state to go for Trump.

She should send Bernie here instead of Ohio.

Trump won't win Wisconsin. Outside of the WoW area, he's an absolute horrible fit for the state.

The GB area is heavily Catholic and adverse to anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The MKE area has heavy minority populations that will swing hard against him.
He's absolutely hated in Dane County.
The MN twin cities exurbs of the northeast are likely to reject him as well.

His best areas will be the WoW counties and, possibly, parts of the central northern areas of the state. Undecideds will break heavily against him, and Feingold is actually doing the work of energizing turnout because people want him back in the seat he shouldn't have lost.

Unless their polling shows otherwise. Clinton hasn't been in WI since April, I have to imagine that's intentional.

Agree that Bernie would be good here (same with Obama).

What's your thought on final margin?

It's also worth mentioning that Wisconsin usually has among the highest turnout rates in the nation... RV polls are more valuable here, since nearly everyone who is registered, ends up voting.

Good. This means that if Hillary can regain some ground here, Feingold should be safe.

On the Presidential level, Wisconsin is competitive. But I'm now convinced that Johnson actually under performs Trump.

If things pan out as we're expecting, the margin will be somewhere between 2012 and 2008, about Clinton +9 with some GB area and MN exurb counties flipping.

TBH, I'd say its more accurate that Feingold exceeds Hillary.

Trump is up 8% in the Green Bay/Appelton media market and he has been for at least the last 3 polls.

Some counties, not most or all.

Meanwhile Feingold is doing just fine ahead 47/41, Obama JA 54/41. Hmm I wonder how we'd be doing with a different candidate?

If Obama's approval ratings are consistently 10 points above water or more, she has no excuse for losing here.

One positive is that Trump's numbers still haven't budged an inch.

This is undoubtedly Trump's best poll of the day...

Although some of our knowledgeable posters have presented cases as to why Trump is unlikely to take the football over the line in WI, considering the composition of 3rd Party and undecided voters, Obama approval ratings, etc.... Wisconsin pretty much looks like the only state that can take Trump over 270, even with wins in FL,OH,NC,IA, and NV.

Trump is clearly performing much better in the industrial Midwest than in many other regions, and even fairly solid Democratic states in the upper-midwest (WI and MI) are much closer than one might imagine.

PA looks to be a solid Clinton lock, even in her worst polling weeks, NH appears to be totally off-the-board.

I don't see VA or CO going Trump this year, despite a few polls from those states in the past week from dubious sources that indicate that the race has tightened in those two respective states.

#Battleground WI for the Trump win.

Then he has already lost.

I mean, it's pretty clear NV, NC and FL are going to vote to the right of WI (maybe not the last one), which would mean he needs one of WI, CO, and NH (or MI or PA, lol). It's not a must-win when you have arguably two other options, but he won't win any of them, so it's OK.

Florida + Ohio + Iowa + ME-02+ Nevada + Romney 206 + Wisconsin = 276.

Basically he needs to avoid anymore gaffes plus go all in for WI and FL. If he can lock them down and stay focused, he's got this.

OK, how about a realistic plan?

Exactly, SHE is the reason this entire race is competitive, I wish pollsters would just ask Generic D against Trump and I bet you'd see them do substantially better than Hillary is right now.

It does seem to be his best path.... outside of some major development from a major upset from the debates, foreign policy crisis, economic collapse (a bit late in the cycle for that), it does look like the path to 270 flows through this combo (Although he could lose NV or IA and still win) as a more realistic  means to get enough EC votes to make it work than trying to pull out a major upset in PA or MI (Which should vote to the left of WI) and combined with the Anglo SoCal seniors in NV and lack of Millennial support for Clinton in that state, along with "angry French-Canadian Lumberjacks" ;) could avoid a 269-269 tie.