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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Classic Conservative on September 21, 2016, 02:46:54 pm



Title: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 21, 2016, 02:46:54 pm
Arizona:
Trump: 46%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 1%

California:
Clinton: 62%
Trump: 34%
Johnson: 2%
Stein: 1%

Nevada:
Trump: 47%
Clinton: 44%
Johnson: 6%

Washington:
Clinton: 44%
Trump: 32%
Johnson: 16%
Stein: 7%

http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Neolibs Are The New McCarthyists on September 21, 2016, 02:47:57 pm
I assume it's racist whites making NV go red. No other explanation really.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on September 21, 2016, 02:49:01 pm
Trump's strength in Nevada is really interesting.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on September 21, 2016, 02:51:42 pm
They are a Canadian company (not saying that's bad, just interesting). Wonder if they polled in Spanish?


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Tender Branson on September 21, 2016, 02:52:36 pm
Why would Johnson/Stein only get 2 and 1 percent in CA, but high double-digits in WA ?

Doesn't make any sense ...


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 21, 2016, 02:53:40 pm
A Canadian firm who have never polled the united states before?

Not saying they're bad, just gonna take this with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Ronnie on September 21, 2016, 02:55:19 pm
I don't think it's entirely out of the question that the map ends up looking like this one:

()


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 21, 2016, 03:01:17 pm
Pot is ahead in all three states by convincing margins.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Mallow on September 21, 2016, 03:12:48 pm
I don't think it's entirely out of the question that the map ends up looking like this one:



Flip Ohio and you have an odd, but based on polls, believable map.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: ExtremeConservative on September 21, 2016, 03:57:32 pm
A left-leaning group?

Quote
Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

Most of our surveys are conducted through our Your Insights panel. The Your Insights panel is comprised of 30,000 Canadians who share their opinions on a variety of political, economic, social and other issues while earning the opportunity to get paid and win great prizes. If you’re interested in joining, please register at yourinsights.ca.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: NOVA Green on September 21, 2016, 04:25:33 pm
Overall, these numbers seem realistic (Excepting the odd 3rd party numbers).

Trump has consolidated much of the Republican base that he had issues with an AZ is definitely looking like a +4-5 Trump lead.

California looks a bit weird with such low level of 3rd party support, but could easily see Cali ending up +25 Clinton this cycle.

Washington seems realistic.

Nevada seems odd, but not inconsistent with some of the other polls we are seeing showing a narrow Trump lead in the state hit worse by the housing crisis, that is still barely recovering, and then throw in the SoCal Anglo retirees (As I argued elsewhere) and you have something that is likely slightly understating Clinton support, but there is still a real battle going on in the state this GE.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Boston Bread on September 21, 2016, 04:35:47 pm
A left-leaning group?

Quote
Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

Most of our surveys are conducted through our Your Insights panel. The Your Insights panel is comprised of 30,000 Canadians who share their opinions on a variety of political, economic, social and other issues while earning the opportunity to get paid and win great prizes. If you’re interested in joining, please register at yourinsights.ca.
I don't recall their polls in Canada being biased, although I only know of their 2015 federal and 2015 Alberta polling.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on September 21, 2016, 04:43:53 pm
Trump winning Independents 60-23 in NV? Riiiiiiight.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: dspNY on September 21, 2016, 04:45:24 pm
Polls were taken on 9/12-9/14, which was in the middle of the Clinton health nonsense


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: King Francis I on September 21, 2016, 05:18:09 pm
Trump's strength in Nevada is really interesting.
To be honest I think the polls are just totally off in NV. There are states that a Trump surge can easily be explained (OH, IA), but NV? Too many minorities for that.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 21, 2016, 05:19:17 pm
Trump's strength in Nevada is really interesting.
To be honest I think the polls are just totally off in NV. There are states that a Trump surge can easily be explained (OH, IA), but NV? Too many minorities for that.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 21, 2016, 05:21:16 pm
A left-leaning group?

Quote
Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

Most of our surveys are conducted through our Your Insights panel. The Your Insights panel is comprised of 30,000 Canadians who share their opinions on a variety of political, economic, social and other issues while earning the opportunity to get paid and win great prizes. If you’re interested in joining, please register at yourinsights.ca.
LOL... you know that "progressive" has more than one meaning, right? "Cutting-edge" being one. Now, I don't know enough about the polling company to confirm or deny that, but you can't just see a word like that and assume that it's being used politically.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: RFayette on September 21, 2016, 05:22:17 pm
Trump's strength in Nevada is really interesting.
To be honest I think the polls are just totally off in NV. There are states that a Trump surge can easily be explained (OH, IA), but NV? Too many minorities for that.

(
Img
)

In that case, Chicago must be solid Trump with its tower.  Right...


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Sorenroy on September 21, 2016, 05:24:53 pm
Pot is ahead in all three states by convincing margins.

I assume it's ahead with you as well.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: ExtremeConservative on September 21, 2016, 05:25:54 pm
A left-leaning group?

Quote
Insights West is a progressive, Western-based, full-service marketing research company. It exists to serve the market with insights-driven research solutions and interpretive analysis through leading-edge tools, normative databases, and senior-level expertise across a broad range of public and private sector organizations. Insights West is based in Vancouver and Calgary.

Most of our surveys are conducted through our Your Insights panel. The Your Insights panel is comprised of 30,000 Canadians who share their opinions on a variety of political, economic, social and other issues while earning the opportunity to get paid and win great prizes. If you’re interested in joining, please register at yourinsights.ca.
LOL... you know that "progressive" has more than one meaning, right? "Cutting-edge" being one. Now, I don't know enough about the polling company to confirm or deny that, but you can't just see a word like that and assume that it's being used politically.

I wasn't sure, and that's why I put a question mark!


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 21, 2016, 06:23:31 pm
Trump winning Independents 60-23 in NV? Riiiiiiight.

Laughable if the purpose of the poll was solely to predict how NV independents are going to vote. But it isn't - it's to predict how NV aa a whole will vote.

But Hillary can take comfort from the fact that Nevada is traditionally a state where Democrats outperform the polls. Most notable example was the 2010 senate race which, funnily enough, was a contest between a nutty obnoxious Republican and a sleazy establishment Democrat.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: EpicHistory on September 21, 2016, 06:31:23 pm
I don't think it's entirely out of the question that the map ends up looking like this one:

()

But Trump is ahead in both Ohio and North Carolina.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: oriass16 on September 21, 2016, 07:32:46 pm
I assume it's racist whites making NV go red. No other explanation really.
When those same whites voted for Obama 4 and 8 years ago they were not racists now suddenly they are, such a shame.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: NOVA Green on September 21, 2016, 08:02:37 pm
Pot is ahead in all three states by convincing margins.

I assume it's ahead with you as well.

There will be a minimum of seven Green states come November, and quite possibly nine, including the entire Western US (aside from ID,WY,MT and NM).

Clever joke on "assuming it is a head with you as well. ;)

Now I think where our friend Spicy Purrito might have been coming from is a large number of Millennials showing up to vote in these three states for legalization, and it might well help win NV for Clinton

Likely not enough in AZ, unless Clinton's national numbers improve by 1-2%, but it will definitely be something that dramatically increases Millennial turnout, which is a demographic that both despises Trump and also views Clinton as untrustworthy.



Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Neolibs Are The New McCarthyists on September 21, 2016, 08:05:30 pm
I assume it's racist whites making NV go red. No other explanation really.
When those same whites voted for Obama 4 and 8 years ago they were not racists now suddenly they are, such a shame.

They don't care about the color of the candidates skin, they want racist policies.


Title: AZ: Other Source: Trump +5 in Arizona
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on September 21, 2016, 08:28:45 pm
New Poll: Arizona President by Other Source on 2016-09-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420160914106)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 46%, I: 10%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/)


Title: NV: Other Source: Trump +3 in Nevada
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on September 21, 2016, 08:31:42 pm
New Poll: Nevada President by Other Source on 2016-09-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3220160914106)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 47%, I: 6%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/)


Title: CA: Other Source: Clinton +28 in California
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on September 21, 2016, 08:33:38 pm
New Poll: California President by Other Source on 2016-09-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620160914106)

Summary: D: 62%, R: 34%, I: 3%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/)


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: 136or142 on September 22, 2016, 01:07:20 am
Insights West (not Insight West) polling analyst (and spokesperson), Mario Canseco, is on Twitter.  He wrote a series of tweets about the polls, including polls for various state initiatives.

https://twitter.com/mario_canseco

Insights West has a pretty good track record, though like all the local pollsters, they got the 2013 B.C election wrong.

Mario Canseco speaks fluent Spanish, but I don't know if the firm does polling in Spanish.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Sorenroy on September 22, 2016, 06:36:59 am
Pot is ahead in all three states by convincing margins.
I assume it's ahead with you as well.
Clever joke on "assuming it is a head with you as well. ;)

I'm not that clever (I don't even get it), but thanks. Anyway, saying it's ahead in "all three" states when it's a poll of four is just weird wording. It would either be "all four" if you used the word "all" or "three of the" if three states polled in favor.


Title: Re: Insight West Polls: AZ Trump +5 NV Trump +3 CA Clinton +29 WA Clinton +12
Post by: Dakota Devil on September 22, 2016, 05:17:18 pm
I assume it's racist whites making NV go red. No other explanation really.

It is.  It's unbearable in Northern Nevada right now.  They are coming out of the woodwork.  It's a combination between embarrassing and frightening.  It seems to me that these closet racists now think they have been justified by Trump's words and actions.  He makes it ok.

Unfortunately, I personally know quite a few people that previously had never been interested in politics, had never voted in their lives, and are now excited about getting out and voting for Trump.  

Thankfully, we have Clark county but as much as I'd hate to say it, I really think Trump is going to win Nevada.