Talk Elections

Arizona:
Trump: 46%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 9%
Stein: 1%

California:
Clinton: 62%
Trump: 34%
Johnson: 2%
Stein: 1%

Nevada:
Trump: 47%
Clinton: 44%
Johnson: 6%

Washington:
Clinton: 44%
Trump: 32%
Johnson: 16%
Stein: 7%

http://www.insightswest.com/news/trump-leads-in-arizona-and-nevada-clinton-in-california-and-washington/

I assume it's racist whites making NV go red. No other explanation really.

They are a Canadian company (not saying that's bad, just interesting). Wonder if they polled in Spanish?

Why would Johnson/Stein only get 2 and 1 percent in CA, but high double-digits in WA ?

Doesn't make any sense ...

A Canadian firm who have never polled the united states before?

Not saying they're bad, just gonna take this with a grain of salt.

I don't think it's entirely out of the question that the map ends up looking like this one:

()

Pot is ahead in all three states by convincing margins.

Flip Ohio and you have an odd, but based on polls, believable map.

A left-leaning group?

Overall, these numbers seem realistic (Excepting the odd 3rd party numbers).

Trump has consolidated much of the Republican base that he had issues with an AZ is definitely looking like a +4-5 Trump lead.

California looks a bit weird with such low level of 3rd party support, but could easily see Cali ending up +25 Clinton this cycle.

Washington seems realistic.

Nevada seems odd, but not inconsistent with some of the other polls we are seeing showing a narrow Trump lead in the state hit worse by the housing crisis, that is still barely recovering, and then throw in the SoCal Anglo retirees (As I argued elsewhere) and you have something that is likely slightly understating Clinton support, but there is still a real battle going on in the state this GE.

I don't recall their polls in Canada being biased, although I only know of their 2015 federal and 2015 Alberta polling.

Trump winning Independents 60-23 in NV? Riiiiiiight.

Polls were taken on 9/12-9/14, which was in the middle of the Clinton health nonsense

To be honest I think the polls are just totally off in NV. There are states that a Trump surge can easily be explained (OH, IA), but NV? Too many minorities for that.

()

LOL... you know that "progressive" has more than one meaning, right? "Cutting-edge" being one. Now, I don't know enough about the polling company to confirm or deny that, but you can't just see a word like that and assume that it's being used politically.

In that case, Chicago must be solid Trump with its tower.  Right...

I assume it's ahead with you as well.

I wasn't sure, and that's why I put a question mark!

Laughable if the purpose of the poll was solely to predict how NV independents are going to vote. But it isn't - it's to predict how NV aa a whole will vote.

But Hillary can take comfort from the fact that Nevada is traditionally a state where Democrats outperform the polls. Most notable example was the 2010 senate race which, funnily enough, was a contest between a nutty obnoxious Republican and a sleazy establishment Democrat.

But Trump is ahead in both Ohio and North Carolina.

When those same whites voted for Obama 4 and 8 years ago they were not racists now suddenly they are, such a shame.

There will be a minimum of seven Green states come November, and quite possibly nine, including the entire Western US (aside from ID,WY,MT and NM).

Clever joke on "assuming it is a head with you as well. ;)

Now I think where our friend Spicy Purrito might have been coming from is a large number of Millennials showing up to vote in these three states for legalization, and it might well help win NV for Clinton

Likely not enough in AZ, unless Clinton's national numbers improve by 1-2%, but it will definitely be something that dramatically increases Millennial turnout, which is a demographic that both despises Trump and also views Clinton as untrustworthy.

They don't care about the color of the candidates skin, they want racist policies.

Insights West (not Insight West) polling analyst (and spokesperson), Mario Canseco, is on Twitter.  He wrote a series of tweets about the polls, including polls for various state initiatives.

https://twitter.com/mario_canseco

Insights West has a pretty good track record, though like all the local pollsters, they got the 2013 B.C election wrong.

Mario Canseco speaks fluent Spanish, but I don't know if the firm does polling in Spanish.

I'm not that clever (I don't even get it), but thanks. Anyway, saying it's ahead in "all three" states when it's a poll of four is just weird wording. It would either be "all four" if you used the word "all" or "three of the" if three states polled in favor.

It is.  It's unbearable in Northern Nevada right now.  They are coming out of the woodwork.  It's a combination between embarrassing and frightening.  It seems to me that these closet racists now think they have been justified by Trump's words and actions.  He makes it ok.

Unfortunately, I personally know quite a few people that previously had never been interested in politics, had never voted in their lives, and are now excited about getting out and voting for Trump.  

Thankfully, we have Clark county but as much as I'd hate to say it, I really think Trump is going to win Nevada.