Talk Elections

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html

Nevada:
Heck - 43
Cortez Masto - 36

North Carolina:
Burr - 43
Ross - 37

Ohio:
Portman - 51
Stickland - 37

Does anyone agree with me that Nevada's Senate race is Lean R at this point?

These polls are definitely R-friendly.

Lol

Certainly disagrees with the consensus on NC. Interesting.

I agree that the NC numbers seem off, but when comparing the margins it still agrees with the consensus. McCrory underperformed Trump by 2, while Burr overperforms Trump by 1. I think that is about right, but I think McCrory is down by 3, Trump tied and Burr +1 is more like it.

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.

Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous

Plus it's not like Democrats had many better options

Ross Miller and Dina Titus were really the only two other heavy hitters they had

Cortez Masto also, while AG, was under fire for indicting then-LG Brian Krolicki, then dropping the indictment (which was purely partisan motivated) since he had done no wrongdoing. Ross lost the AG race in 2014, though the wave really hurt him. Titus also lost to Heck in 2010, and would not have been that much better. The Democratic bench in Nevada is pretty weak, for now.

Sorry, these numbers aren't happening.

What the HECK are you talking about? hehe

That was a sick BURR right there...

Okay, I'll show myself to the door.

This seems about right for Portman. Heck is probably up by 3 and so is burr overall though.

The OH and NC numbers make sense given their presidential numbers. NV is a bit weird, but could be accurate.

Seems pretty clear right now that all three are up, but none of them are up by those margins. With Burr and Portman it makes sense considering the lean of the year and their states and the campaigns that have been waged.

After the Angle/Reid race in 2010, I'm loathe to call anything for Nevada Republicans until the votes come in, but it seems pretty clear the lead Heck has is at least stronger than the lead Angle had; no poll after June had her up by more than 4. (If any of you don't recall, the final average had her up 3, and Reid won by 6, so if you think the error will be similar this is no proof that Heck is winning. In 2012, on the contrary, the final average had Heller up by 4 and he won by 1; in that case, on the other hand, only one poll, a rogue September PPP, had Berkley up during the entire calendar year 2012, though there were multiple ties).

At the moment, including this poll but weirdly not including the recent PPP, RCP has Heck up 3. If the error is similar to 2012, this race is an exact tie. If it is similar to 2010, then Masto is up 6, though that seems doubtful. (In the 2014-Gov race, on the other hand, the average had Sandoval up by 25 but he won by 47; if that repeats, Heck will win by 25 points :P). This is exactly what makes Nevada so damn frustrating.

CCM is not a bad candidate at all, I guess her sin is not being a more high profile AG. She was elected statewide twice by decent margins and her name ID is pretty terrible.

wow Heck still can't get above 45% or so! Embarassing!

And it's amazing that Burr is doing WORSE than Heck.

Obviously Ohio is a lost cause but i mean jesus dems.

Obvious outliers for both the Senate and Presidential numbers.

And Cortez-Masto that still can't get around 40% isn't a bit embarassing? ::)

I hope Cortez-Masto wins, Berkeley was unstated too and she lost due to scandal. But Heck isnt up by 7, it's still a margin of error race. Due to Latinos

Democrats have a history of outperforming the polls in Nevada.  In 2004, most polls had Bush comfortably winning Nevada.  He barely won it.  In 2010, the polls almost all had Angle ahead of Reid by a few.  Reid won by 5.  In 2012, the polls all had Heller winning by a decent margin.  He barely squeaked by.