Talk Elections

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-debate-poll-20160924-story.html
Clinton 44 (47)
Trump 41 (38)

Clinton 40 (40)
Trump 38 (32)
Johnson 8 (14)
Stein 3 (5)

Well, that completely sucks. These national poll gains for Hillary really haven't translated in these state polls at all.

*gasp*

This is why I hate weekly polls. :(

wasn't this the one that showed Clinton + 8 before? Confused

So what basically happened is Johnson collapsed and MoE?

inb4 Atlas has a collective meltdown. I'm not going to worry unless Trump actually leads in a poll of a must-win state for Hillary.

So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

It would nice to see more polling here from Q or Marist. Don't know what happened this week that would cause a 5 point swing.

I imagine we'll get a ton of polls after Monday's debate.

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Theres a reason there are no good weekly/daily tracking polls imo, too much variance. Johnson hasn't done enough to loose half his support.

He didn't make it on the debate stage that could be a big reason.

Oh yes.

We would see that next week, not now.

Muh Trump surge!

Yeah, a 6 point drop off doesn't make much sense. Looks like statistical noise.

^^

The variance is weird and I'm not sure I totally trust these numbers. Doesn't it make sense that Johnson's support should begin unraveling, though, if it's going to break apart at all? It's obvious to everyone that the man isn't going to make the debates and has nowhere to go but down. We're also several weeks into true GE mode, and it makes sense to me that some people previously polling Johnson would now decide they are ready to go for either Hillary or Trump as a lesser evil.

I never believed she was up that much in PA in the first place. Although Trump is weaker than other Republicans in traditional conservative states like TX, GA ect, he is much strong in the rust belt area. I have a strong feeling that PA is within 5 points right now.

Hillary is cleaning his clock in big dem states like CA and NY, while Trump is only modestly ahead in big GOP states like TX, GA, which would explain why Trump might be down a few points nationally but still doing very well in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, MI, WI, ect. Also CO, despite not being in the rust belt, is very similar in many ways.

Watch the rust belt!

President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Exactly, he may actually lose the PV while winning in the Electoral College similar to 2000.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you've seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)

Obvious junk with swings this big in a week.

lolwut

This pollster is rated A by 538 and its last poll of Clinton +8 was adjusted by 538 to Clinton +7

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Trump won't win, because Satan isn't that powerful. The white supremacists will be out in the street trying to beat up every non-white person in sight when Trump loses, because they are already sending out threats on social media of putting people in ovens.

i think the real numbers right now are something like +3 or +5 clinton.....different than in OH democrats have kind of a built-in advantage in PA if they can get their voters out, even with working class defectors.

Hillary leading by only 3?! Oh no! Say hello to President Trump!!!! Kidding.

There were polls in 2012 that had Obama ahead by only 2 points so I'm not worried at all. Plus we had that democracy now poll which is better.

Oh look! Demonizing the opposition.

Never seen that before...

BTW, this is for you. https://twitter.com/LibertarianQn/status/778845840496594944

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I-LQTkytR8

I go by what I see on Twitter. There are Jewish people being told that they'll be turned into soap or thrown into ovens. There are white supremacists saying that once Trump is President, every black person is going to be burned. There are a lot of evil people out there who would react badly to Trump losing.

I say the average or trend for PA right now is about +4 to +5 to Hillary.
And the fact that this poll was conducted at a low point for Clinton, makes me feel comfortable that she will hold this state.

Democrats seemed happier when she was up by more.  Does anyone know why this would be?

But you liked previous PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll: Clinton +9
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245993.0

But your friend Red Avatar 'Lief' praised of previous week PA-Morning Call Poll: Hillary +8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls

August-September,2012 Morning Call Polls
Morning Call   9/22 - 9/26   427 LV   5.0   Obama 49   Romney 42   Obama +7
Morning Call   9/10 - 9/16   640 LV   4.0   Obama 50   Romney 41   Obama +9
Morning Call   8/20 - 8/22   422 LV   5.0   Obama 49   Romney 40   Obama +9

Romney improved after that but still what you're showing is that it's a left leaning poll showing Trump being close.

"Democracy Now" is junkier than any other junk that I see out there. It's the husband of a Democrat Congresswoman and James Carville for Christ's sake.

I'd trust ARG and Zogby before that pile of crap. At least they don't post their "results" in Powerpoint presentations.

I seriously doubt that Johnson was ever anywhere near 14% in a state like Pennsylvania to begin with. Even 8% seems too high for him here.

Yeah, it isn't a super 3rd-party friendly state. I'd be surprised if all third parties together got 1.75%.

This poll had a sample size of 486, did it not?  That's a little too small.

    Would love to see some regional breakdowns for these PA polls.  Where is Trump making gains?

Western PA = Rust Belt = TRUMP gains
Philly : Perhaps some of the Hillary supporters in Philly are not enthusiastic.
Hillary is losing her numbers. few days ago her philly rally, She couldn't even gather 200 people.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/
I guess some of the Hillary supporters in Philly are not enthusiastic. When Election day, They could vote for Johnson or Stein or Stay home.

A lot of GOP pundits agree that this poll is indicative of a sampling error.

Good news for Trump, but not troubling for Hillary as long as he doesn't actually lead a PA poll ...

2% leads(4way) is nothing.
Because of turnouts.

Perhaps Hillary can't reach turnouts rate of Obama did in 2008,2012(especially Minorities)
as I said already, it is crazy, Democratic nominee couldn't gather 200 crowds in Philly rally.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

and TRUMP might boost turnouts of HS, Some college White(Men/Women both) in PA(especially Western PA Rust Belt)

He needs Pennsylvania, because won't win Colorado and Nevada. Especially not Colorado (in addition to Florida, Ohio and Iowa).

Don't forget NE PA when discussing "rust belt PA". 


This actually makes a lot more sense in the context of the county polling we have scene.

Luzerne (15+), Lehigh Valley (+12 extrapolating from Northampton to Lehigh County) and Bucks (-4)

Granted the last one was all of PA-08, but most of that is Bucks County and the part that is not, is the Republican bits of Montco (yes that Montco).

I heard someone mention a poll showing Trump up in Erie County but I have not seen that anywhere.

There is just no way that leads like that translate to Clinton +8. She is not doing massively better than Obama in Bucks (He won it by 2 I think). Trump can afford a slight underperformance in the SE as long as he doesn't get killed there, because he is doing so much better than Romney elsewhere in the state. Clinton can abandon the rest of the state save Allegheny and still win off of the SE alone, but not by 8 unless she is truly winning it by 30% like some polls suggested at one point, but there is reason to think that point has passed as of this juncture.

If Johnson is ebbing to Trump, than that would most likely be in two places I would think (Lancaster and Chester counties as well as the Philly burbs at large), places where Trump would struggle with colledge educated Republicans.

I will just leave this here:


Also this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

She's still leading and polls have varied over the months. PA is still likely D.

Morning Call is highly respected pollster along with PPP, last cycle MC polled PA two weeks prior election day and they had Obama ahead by 5 points also PPP had him ahead during election week by 6 points and he ends up winning by 5.4 points.

Morning Call   10/17 - 10/21   444 LV   5.0   50   45   Obama +5
PPP (D)            11/2 - 11/3   790 LV   3.5   52    46    Obama +6

so, I believe Clinton now is ahead by 2-3 points in PA, we know Clinton is weaker than Obama with minorities and if trump can boost high turnout among uneducated whites who knows what is going to happen.

Can't believe someone is already declaring the winner of the race. Don't be cocky folks.

The poll swung 6 points in one week. Not sure if such a swing is totally realistic, but again we are in an unrealistic political environment.

If you're referring to those Democracy Corps polls, they were polls done for a liberal advocacy group that had a D+2 house bias and even have James Carville on the team (IIRC). Those polls are utter junk, while this pollster has an A rating.


I mean, it's not like the polls are saying you're completely wrong with regards to Ohio and Iowa at the least, am I right?


Because a social media site is the ultimate and completely trustworthy source for quality news?


Last poll only had a sample size of 405, so this one is actually larger than previous. As the Red Avatars noted then, this pollster is A rated by 538.


Who are these unnamed pundits, and are they pollsters themselves? As well, are they #NeverTrump supporters?

Sigh...EpicHistory, let me take you back to Muhlenberg County....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY


Ok... back on track and actually in PA and not KY.

Trump's biggest challenge in PA has always been in the Philly Burbs....

There is not any indication thus far that Trump has actually been able to deliver these voters.

PA/VA/NH are the three states where Team Clinton has been able to nail down suburban educated women that is basically creating a roadblock that has created little movement for Trump.

We can argue about sampling errors, but this poll is not indicative of a dramatic movement towards Trump in PA, although he did chill at Geno's in South Philly a few days back...

she's up 2, maybe 3

Indeed. 

Plus, one Pennsylvania poll is no reason to freak out about a gap between the national polls and state polls.  The national polls, in aggregate, effectively have a small margin of error.  But this poll is +/-5%, so even if it's perfectly sampled, the MoE alone can account for Clinton being 5% higher or lower.  There definitely appears to be a little difference between the swing state and national polls this year, but this one poll being "off" isn't much evidence either way.

They'll probably get more than that this year. They got about 1.44% in 2012 and this will be a much bigger year for third parties everywhere.

But yeah, Johnson would be lucky to get 3% or so here, 8% will never happen.