Title: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2016, 09:29:48 AM
()
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/race-tightens-va-trump-down-1-co-9-mo
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/race-tightens-va-trump-down-1-co-9-mo
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: heatcharger on September 25, 2016, 09:31:40 AM
Didn't they have the same 40-39 race last time they polled Colorado?
Anyways, did they seriously not poll the MO senate race...
Anyways, did they seriously not poll the MO senate race...
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Helsinkian on September 25, 2016, 09:32:43 AM
Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2016, 09:34:36 AM
Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
:P
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Person Man on September 25, 2016, 09:35:21 AM
Apparently Trump is doing well with Hispanics in Colorado. This race is more or less tied at this point..maybe Clunton has an edge..
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 25, 2016, 09:36:13 AM
17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Seriously? on September 25, 2016, 09:38:14 AM
Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Tender Branson on September 25, 2016, 09:40:46 AM
Someone please add them to the database ...
CO should be slight Hillary then.
CO should be slight Hillary then.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: heatcharger on September 25, 2016, 09:40:55 AM
17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow
Yeah, and Hillary's only getting 46% of the Hispanic vote when Obama got 75% last time in the state...
Also why is there no education crosstab?
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: / on September 25, 2016, 09:44:54 AM
Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
XD
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Gass3268 on September 25, 2016, 09:46:11 AM
MO: Don't know why this needed to be polled
VA: Good result for Hillary
CO: Concerning, but most of the undecided voters are younger voters and I have doubts on the Hispanic numbers (I imagine Hispanics that can do an online poll will be more friendly to Trump). Also this is no shift since their June poll.
VA: Good result for Hillary
CO: Concerning, but most of the undecided voters are younger voters and I have doubts on the Hispanic numbers (I imagine Hispanics that can do an online poll will be more friendly to Trump). Also this is no shift since their June poll.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: afleitch on September 25, 2016, 09:47:11 AM
17% of White Evangelicals are undecided in CO wow
Yeah, and Hillary's only getting 46% of the Hispanic vote when Obama got 75% last time in the state...
Also why is there no education crosstab?
Yeah, Latino Decisions (9th September mind, so it's old) had her up 72-17 amongst Hispanics. Her best state outside of NC at that time. She'll have slipped a bit, but the polls figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on September 25, 2016, 09:48:33 AM
CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Person Man on September 25, 2016, 09:49:49 AM
Why do they have a map of Arizona instead of Colorado?
XD
Fact: it doesn't matter if you get Wyoming or Colorado mixed up...not such much with Arizona.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Gass3268 on September 25, 2016, 09:50:59 AM
CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.
Yeah, Obama over performed his rcp average by 4 points in 2012.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 25, 2016, 09:52:18 AM
Their last poll in CO was also +1 so no change there.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on September 25, 2016, 09:52:35 AM
I guess this graphic designer isn't so good at geography, lol. But I guess the takeaway here is that #BattlegroundColorado is a thing again, even if it does lean D a bit.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Xing on September 25, 2016, 10:01:28 AM
If we are seeing a realignment based on educational attainment, CO shouldn't be this close. Then again, the Latino number in this poll is laughable, so that might explain part of it.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Gass3268 on September 25, 2016, 10:07:53 AM
Keep in mind that a good percent of CO Hispanics (and a majority in NM) are ancestral residents who are basically the Carholic white working class culturally. Those parts of the state are unlikely to be turned off by Trump as much as Hispanics are nationally.
Also those that are probably the most turned off by Trump, might not be full represented in an online poll.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: HillOfANight on September 25, 2016, 10:18:48 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-colorado-trump-battles-demographics-clinton-fears-complacency/2016/09/13/4a53405e-79d0-11e6-bd86-b7bbd53d2b5d_story.html
On 9/13, the Washington Post reported that Clinton's internal polling had them up 7.
On 9/13, the Washington Post reported that Clinton's internal polling had them up 7.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Saruman on September 25, 2016, 10:49:19 AM
Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Eraserhead on September 25, 2016, 10:51:57 AM
Trump probably shouldn't bother with VA at this point.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: StatesPoll on September 25, 2016, 11:08:11 AM
()
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/race-tightens-va-trump-down-1-co-9-mo
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/25/race-tightens-va-trump-down-1-co-9-mo
Colorado, CBS/YouGov, 9/21-9/13
Not Sure votes
White - 11%, Hispanic - 12%
Colorado Exit Poll 2012 - White 78% | Hispanic 14%
White 78% x Not sure 11% = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x Not sure 12% = 1.68%
and red avatars are thinking, oh! oh! oh! Hispanics! Hillary has bigger space to expand.
lol
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on September 25, 2016, 11:27:02 AM
These State polls lately have my head spinning they really how to not make any sense based on the demographics of each state and the people at the top of the ticket
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: mencken on September 25, 2016, 11:55:59 AM
Trump probably shouldn't bother with VA at this point.
(
Only because he's already won the election in a landslide if VA is in play
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: StatesPoll on September 25, 2016, 12:01:56 PM
It seems Red Avatars noticed 12% of Hispanic LV answered 'Not Sure'(Undecided)
Meanwhile 11% of white LV answered 'Not sure'
Colorado 2012 exit Poll - White 78% Hispanic 14%
so,
White 78% x 11%(undecided) = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x 12%(undecided) = 1.68%
Even consider Hillay has higher +% margins of Hispanics.
It looks TRUMP has bigger spaces to expand than hillary.
This Poll:
White - TRUMP 43% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2% |
Hispanic - Hillary 46% | TRUMP 20% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: StatesPoll on September 25, 2016, 12:04:45 PM
Virginia Poll - undersampled White Evagelicals horribly (Yougov already did several times of FL/OH polls.)
2012 Exit Poll(VA): White Evangelicals 23%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/VA/president/
CBS/YouGov 9/21-9/23: White Evangelicals 13.65%
adjust the poll as 2012 Exit Poll Ratios
1) Hillary: White Evan(23%)x14% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x50%= 41.72%
2) TRUMP: White Evan(23%)x69% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x32%= 40.51%
3) Johnson: White Evan(23%)x4% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x8%= 7.08%
4) Stein: White Evan(23%)x0% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x1%= 0.77%
Hillary +1.21% :p
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Sir Mohamed on September 25, 2016, 12:05:09 PM
If I were the Trumpster, I would give up on VA. It's a waste of ressources.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 25, 2016, 12:05:14 PM
It seems Red Avatars noticed 12% of Hispanic LV answered 'Not Sure'(Undecided)
Meanwhile 11% of white LV answered 'Not sure'
Colorado 2012 exit Poll - White 78% Hispanic 14%
so,
White 78% x 11%(undecided) = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x 12%(undecided) = 1.68%
Even consider Hillay has higher +% margins of Hispanics.
It looks TRUMP has bigger spaces to expand than hillary.
This Poll:
White - TRUMP 43% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2% |
Hispanic - Hillary 46% | TRUMP 20% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: ProudModerate2 on September 25, 2016, 12:07:20 PM
CO is concerning, but remember that it always polls this close when the race is close nationally. Hillary seems to have a much higher ceiling though.
Agree.
And with the Hispanic community in this poll showing a "unusual" lower-than-normal number, I believe that Hillary's lead here is higher than +1. Clinton's overall lead in CO (right now) is probably in the area of +4 or +5.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: oriass16 on September 25, 2016, 12:47:25 PM
Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Ljube on September 25, 2016, 12:58:49 PM
Hillary is a bad fit for Colorado, but Trump is worse.
However, if educated Pubs come home, Trump will have a chance. They are still undecided/pro-Johnson/anti-Trump and we won't know how they decided at least until after the first debate.
However, if educated Pubs come home, Trump will have a chance. They are still undecided/pro-Johnson/anti-Trump and we won't know how they decided at least until after the first debate.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 25, 2016, 01:01:01 PM
If Trump really has 90% among Republicans nationally, then Conway succeeded in getting him what he needed among the holdouts.
Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.
As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.
That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.
Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.
As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.
That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: elcorazon on September 25, 2016, 01:40:55 PM
Funny, because I always thought CO would go off the deep end for Democrats and be noncompetitive by 2020, while VA would remain a close D+1 affair for a few more cycles.
It is worth noting that Obama underpolled here both times by almost as much as he did in NV. Plenty of final 2012 polls had Romney tied or leading. Also, Hickenlooper beat his polls both times, particularly in 2010 when it looked like he was in an MOE race. While Gardner lost, he was expected to lose by more than he did. All things considered, a Dem should be fairly happy with a bare bones lead in CO in this era.
It is worth noting that Obama underpolled here both times by almost as much as he did in NV. Plenty of final 2012 polls had Romney tied or leading. Also, Hickenlooper beat his polls both times, particularly in 2010 when it looked like he was in an MOE race. While Gardner lost, he was expected to lose by more than he did. All things considered, a Dem should be fairly happy with a bare bones lead in CO in this era.
Maybe Hillary's a bad fit in CO, I'm not sure, frankly.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Virginiá on September 25, 2016, 01:49:33 PM
It is worth noting that Obama underpolled here both times by almost as much as he did in NV. Plenty of final 2012 polls had Romney tied or leading. Also, Hickenlooper beat his polls both times, particularly in 2010 when it looked like he was in an MOE race. While Gardner lost, he was expected to lose by more than he did. All things considered, a Dem should be fairly happy with a bare bones lead in CO in this era.
Obama did overperform his CO polls for sure. He did quite well, with an RCP average of +1.5 and a win of +5.4, so that makes me feel better about this.
However, didn't you mean "While Gardner won"? He actually matched his RCP average to the T. Average of 2.5, won by 2.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
FTR, someone really needs to fix Wikipedia's election results. They have the wrong numbers for Gardner and in fact it seems like a lot of other races. I wonder where they are getting their numbers from.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Senator-elect Spark on September 25, 2016, 01:51:42 PM
If Trump really has 90% among Republicans nationally, then Conway succeeded in getting him what he needed among the holdouts.
Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.
As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.
That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.
Clearly more work is needed with Evangelicals, though.
As I have been saying for Months, Trump needs to go for a massive win with indies with some kind of Perot style reform agenda. 90% of Republicans, 78% among Evangelicals, Massive turnout and support among Working Class Whites and a double digit lead among indies is a strong enough coalition to break the freiwal.
That impacts Colorado, it also impacts NC, PA, FL and the midwest, as well the two competitive New England states.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 25, 2016, 02:08:43 PM
Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
There's no such thing as game over when he's tied in Florida, especially with what we know about trying to poll Spanish speakers accurately. If Clinton takes Florida, that's the election right there, regardless of what happens in CO or NV or ME or NC.
(
results in a Clinton win with 282. Trump would need to take MI, PA or VA to win, and all of those look pretty doubtful.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: oriass16 on September 25, 2016, 02:16:25 PM
Colorado is among the firewall states, if trump can break it game over folks.
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
If trump wants to win here he must increase his lead with INDs to double digits in this poll he leads by +6 (with 15% undecided), In Quinnipiac poll+9 and in Emerson poll +15 (estimated).
He also needs to solidify his position with republicans ( 17 % of white evangelical undecided).
regardless of what happens in CO or NV or ME or NC.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: EpicHistory on September 25, 2016, 05:38:24 PM
Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.
....And that's a surefire sign her internal polling is confirming what both Quinnipac and now YouGov are finding. Ladies and gentlemen, #BattlegroundColorado is here for awhile longer.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: NOVA Green on September 25, 2016, 05:45:59 PM
Clinton's SuperPac is going back into Colorado in October fwiw.
....And that's a surefire sign her internal polling is confirming what both Quinnipac and now YouGov are finding. Ladies and gentlemen, #BattlegroundColorado is here for awhile longer.
EpicHistory..... on da' money!!!!
It's not just in my head man.... ;)
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Panda Express on September 25, 2016, 05:52:44 PM
If Trump wins Colorado, I will change my avatar to yellow. (Having a yellow avatar is literally the worst)
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO
Post by: Person Man on September 25, 2016, 05:57:28 PM
If Trump wins Colorado, I will change my avatar to yellow. (Having a yellow avatar is literally the worst)