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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 01:59:58 pm



Title: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 01:59:58 pm
Iowa: Loras College 2-way (change from June) TIE
Clinton 42.3% (-6)
Trump 42.0% (+8)
Other 6.1% (+2)
Unsure 7.7% (-3)
Refused 1.5% (-1)

491 LV; September 20-22, 2016; MOE +/- 4.4%

Iowa: Loras College 4-way (change from June) TIE
Trump 38.3% (+7)
Clinton 37.7% (-7)
Johnson 9.0% (+3)
Stein 1.2% (-1)
Unsure 13.0% (-2)
Refused 0.8% (-1)

491 LV; September 20-22, 2016; MOE +/- 4.4%


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 26, 2016, 02:00:35 pm
She was up 14 in their last Iowa LOLras poll in June.  


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: JJC on September 26, 2016, 02:03:32 pm
The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on September 26, 2016, 02:03:56 pm
LOLras = Junk.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 26, 2016, 02:04:36 pm


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 26, 2016, 02:05:00 pm


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2016, 02:05:24 pm
Clinton has surged in Iowa!!!!!!!!!! :p


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Ozymandias on September 26, 2016, 03:03:27 pm
The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.

Where's the evidence that they're not?

According to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending, the Clinton campaign spent more during the week of 9/11-9/17 ($841K) then they have in any week since she clinched the nomination.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2016, 03:27:24 pm
The reason I don't buy this has nothing to do with the numbers and everything to do with the Clinton Campaign virtually pulling out of Iowa.

If the state was in play, they would still be fighting for it.

Where's the evidence that they're not?

According to http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending, the Clinton campaign spent more during the week of 9/11-9/17 ($841K) then they have in any week since she clinched the nomination.

Yeah, she actually is going to an event in Des Monies later this week after the debate.


Title: IA: Loras College: Candidates Tied in Iowa
Post by: Dave Leip on September 26, 2016, 03:41:00 pm
New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-09-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920160922230)

Summary: D: 38%, R: 38%, I: 10%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tied-iowa-grassley-opens-strong-lead-loras-college-poll-finds/)


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Kempros on September 26, 2016, 06:59:11 pm
I trust in 538 more as the distrust in the accuracy of the polls increase.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Boston Bread on September 26, 2016, 07:00:12 pm
I trust in 538 more as the distrust in the accuracy of the polls increase.
That's not how 538 works though. Their projection is mostly based on polling. If the polls are bad, the 538 projection is going to be bad.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 26, 2016, 07:01:27 pm
Ugh, first half-decent IA poll for Hillary in ages and it's Loras... sigh, next.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 26, 2016, 10:26:10 pm
Remember their caucus polling? lol.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: pbrower2a on September 26, 2016, 11:56:55 pm
Not until I see another poll corroborate this result will I accept that Donald Trump isn't winning Iowa. The debate performance might do that, though.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 28, 2016, 10:49:44 am
So... was it really necessary to add this (and the UT and MN-Gravis poll) to the database?

We already had the last Loras poll in there... so yes.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: cinyc on September 28, 2016, 02:00:54 pm
So... was it really necessary to add this (and the UT and MN-Gravis poll) to the database?

Every non-internal poll should be added to the database, even the alleged outliers.  Some polls are only outliers until they aren't, anyway.


Title: Re: IA - Loras College - Tie (2-way and 4-way)
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2016, 11:34:11 am
Or you can do as I do -- restart the polling thread after an event that seems to change the narrative.