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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: jaichind on September 29, 2016, 02:42:37 PM



Title: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 29, 2016, 02:42:37 PM
UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Manipur will be held in early 2017 with Goa in the middle of 2017 while HP and Gujarat will be held in late 2017.  Will post more information soon.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on September 29, 2016, 04:44:22 PM
Punjab AAP is eating itself right now, pretty brutal.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2016, 05:13:12 PM
Punjab AAP is eating itself right now, pretty brutal.

punjabi_politics.txt


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 23, 2016, 09:42:57 PM
ECI announces that Uttar Pradesh could have a seven-phase election while Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur could witness single-day polling in simultaneous elections likely to be conducted by the in February-March 2017.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 23, 2016, 09:50:56 PM
In UP the ruling SP is headed for a split based on a family feud.  SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son and UP CM Akhilish Yadav are having a feud around Mulayam Singh Yadav's brother and Akhilish Yadav's uncle Shipav Singh Yadav who was recently made by Mulayam Singh Yadav to be the head of SP's UP branch and who is in the UP cabinet.  This morning  Shipav Singh Yadav was ejected from the the UP cabinet while cousin of  Mulayam Singh Yadav  and SP MP Ram Gopal Yadav was expelled from the SP for backing Akhilish Yadav to take over leadership of SP.

It seems the core issue is that  Shipav Singh Yadav seems to control the ministries that has the most pork to distribute and Akhilish Yadav had decided that  Shipav Singh Yadav has to go so he can get his hands on the pork.  Of course doing so has run afoul of his father and supreme leader of the SP  Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Not sure what is going to take place but it could be that SP could split down the middle between father and son.  CM Akhilish Yadav and his uncle Ram Gopal Yadav might split from SP and form his own party and potentially ally with INC.

SP family tree
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 23, 2016, 10:08:59 PM
Speaking of UP CM Akhilish Yadav, his wife Dimple Yadav, who is also a SP MP is considered one of the most if not the most attractive Indian woman politician.  

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 24, 2016, 07:50:02 AM
btw is there a reason AAP is so strong in Punjab (it seems to have stayed in front, even after some kind of insane Kejriwal rampage)?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 07:26:23 AM
Election dates not set but looks like will be in Feb Mar of 2017.  Of all these states the biggest and most important would be UP.  So it might be useful to start with UP background.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 07:46:48 AM
UP politics since the early 1990s has been a 4 way battle between BJP, SP BSP and INC.  RLD (which one can argue is a SP Jat splinter) and AP (which is a BSP OBC splinter) are have some influence and monkey branch from one of the 4 blocs to another along with various rebels and splinters.

UP politics are caste dominated.  There are 4 major community blocs:  Upper Castes (~20% of the pop), OBC (~40% of the pop), Dalits (~20% of the pop), and Muslims (~20% of the pop)

Upper Castes traditionally voted INC but now has go over to BJP.  Upper Caste tends to be mobilized behind BJP if there are communal conflict with Muslims but in absence of that are suspicious of the encroachment on their power by OBCs and could defect to INC or BSP if they see OBCs dominating BJP.

OBCs tend to split their vote between BJP and SP with Yadavs going to SP and non-Yadavs going to BJP.  OBCs tend to be negative on INC (which historically has built majorities in the past by excluding OBCs) and more so the Dalit based BSP due to OBC viewing Dalits negatively due to their fear that Dalits will encroach on their social superiority.

Dalits tends to support BSP as the main Dalit party but could vote for BJP or INC as THE Upper Caste party as a way to try to rally around Upper Castes who can help raise their social profile against the OBCs which try to exclude them.

Muslims tend to be for SP but could vote INC or BSP as a way to block the Hindu nationalist BJP from winning.  The ideal scenario for Muslims would be for one non-BJP party to exist so they can vote for it.  As it is the non-BJP vote is split between SP BSP and INC which makes it difficult for them to tactically vote.

So the order of preference for each community are

Upper Castes:  BJP, INC, BSP, SP
OBC: SP, BJP, INC, BSP
Dalits: BSP, BJP, INC, SP
Muslims: SP, INC, BSP, BJP

Of course there will be tactical voting so sometimes the votes shares per community might not match the sequence above exactly due to the need to defeat the main enemy (BJP for Muslims, SP or BSP for Upper Caste, and SP or RLD for Dalits)

Jats which a wealthy OBC caste in Western UP tend to vote RLD but will go with BJP during communal conflicts.  Jats tends to be hostile to Dalits so RLD will and ally with BJP SP or INC but never BSP.

Kurmi which is a lower OBC caste tend to vote AD which split from the BSP back in the 1990s due its objection to the promotion of Mayawati to the head of BSP and her Dalit focused line.

()

Is a chart of community voting in the 2007 and 2012 UP assembly elections

Rajputs and Brahmins are the main Upper Castes.  Jadav and  Balmiki are the main Dalit castes.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 08:08:55 AM
One can see UP in terms of  4 major regions

()

Avadh Pradesh, Bundelkhand, Paschim Pradesh, and Purvanchal.

Paschim Pradesh where RLD is a factor but BSP has significant strength.  If the Jat votes goes with RLD and not BJP then BSP tends to do well and if Jat vote goes BJP then BJP does well.

Bundelkhand is where INC is strong along with BSP but the region is trending BJP.

Purvanchal is very strong for BJP but also strong for SP as well.

Avadh Pradesh tends to be evenly divided between BJP BSP and SP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 10:17:24 AM
The story of UP politics since the 1990s is a story of the rise, decline, fall and then revival of the BJP.

INC domination of UP politics came to an end in the late 1980s with the rise of the BJP which took away the INC Upper Caste vote, BSP that took away the INC Dalit vote and SP that consolidated the OBC vote. Communal tensions between Hindus and Muslims in the early 1990s meant that the Upper Caste and OBC vote consolidated around the BJP giving it a clear lead in a 4 party system (BJP SP BSP INC) and abnormally large number of seats.

The 1998 LS election is an example of BJP domination over a splintered opposition and a good place to start the story of UP politics

UP 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                55                 36.95%     (SAP which is proto-JD(U) was part of BJP+)

INC+        80                  0                   6.36%     (BKKP which is proto-RLD was part of INC+)

SP+          80                21                29.98%

BSP          80                  4                 21.05%

AD            45                 0                   0.97%

INC+ was at its nadir and BKKP was not able to keep its Jat base from voting BJP+.  SP and BSP were able to keep their OBC and Dalit base intact.  BJP+ as a result won a huge number of seats with its ~35% vote base.  But as memories of communal conflict from the early 1990s resides the seeds of future BJP+ defeat is on the horizon.  The BJP+ ~35% vote is based on Upper Caste and some of the non-Yadav OBC vote.  To make grow its OBC base the BJP had to appoint Kalyan Singh who has a OBC background as CM.  This is causing resentment among the BJP core Upper Caste base at being sidelined.  Kalyan Singh OBC based faction also feels that they are not getting their fair share of power within the BJP hierarchy.  All this will come out in the midterm 1999 LS election.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 10:27:15 AM
UP 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                28                 29.87%  (JD(U) and INC splinter ABLTC was part of BJP+)

INC+        80                11                 15.89%  (RLD was part of INC+)

SP+          80                27                25.15%

BSP          80                14                 22.30%

AD            44                 0                   1.61%

The midterm LS election came about when Sonia Gandhi came out to lead INC and allied with BJP+ ally AIADMK to bring down the NDA government,.  SP failed to back Sonia Gandhi in an alternative government formation so there was some Muslim resentment against SP for not backing a non-BJP government at the center.   As a result some Muslim votes swung from SP+ to INC+.  This plus a general groundswell for INC+ due to Sonia Gandhi gave some of the Upper Caste vote a chance to  swing from BJP+ to back a now viable INC+  By the late 1990s the part of the Upper Caste went with BJP to block SP and BSP.  Now that INC+ is on the upswing the part of the Upper Caste vote also went from BJP+ to INC+.   Also BJP OBC leader and UP CM Kalyan Singh feeling that he OBC bloc is not getting their fair share of power also did not cooperate with the BJP+ on the ground.

The result was the BJP+ lost a bunch of seats as its vote share fell to ~30% which put it below the threshold for SP and BSP even as SP lost Muslim support to INC+.  INC+ vaulted to 11 seats from zero in 1998.

Even though BJP+ won the 1999 LS election nationally the trend in UP was clearly negative for BJP+ plus tension with Kalyan Singh would soon lead to Kalyan Singh bolting the BJP+ to form his own OBC based BJP rebel party RKP.  All this would come to a head in the 2002 UP Assembly election where the BJP+ government will lose power.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 10:47:33 AM
UP 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403             113                 25.13%  (JD(U), INC splinter ABLTC, and RLD are part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        7                   5.06%  (mostly BJP OBC splinter RKP)

INC+       403               25                  8.97%  

INC rebel                        1                  0.30%

SP+        403              147                25.94%

BSP         403              99                 23.12%

BSP rebel                       1                   0.38%

AD          227                3                   2.16%

NLP        130                1                   0.71%

RPD         61                 1                   0.44%

BJP+ saw a split after 1999 where its OBC leader Kalyan Singh bolted from BJP and formed a OBC based RKP. RKP actually formed a de facto alliance with SP but in the end ran separately from SP.  BJP+ seeing the danger quickly roped in RLD from INC+ bloc.  But it was no avail as it was reduced to 113 seats of which only 88 belonged to BJP.  Sonia Gandhi's superstar power did not extend to UP assembly elections and with the defection of RLD,  INC+ vote share fell to ~9%.  SP+ and BSP mostly kept their vote base but gaine a lot of seats from the fall of BJP+.  The result was a hung assembly.  After a bunch of horse-trading, a BSP-BJP government was formed with BSP leader Mayawati as CM.  This merely added to the resentment in the BJP base as the BJP played second fiddle as BJP+ continue to lose support.  Then in 2003 the BSP-BJP alliance fell apart with a large number of BSP MLAs defecting to SP which gave the SP a majority and allowed SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav to become CM.  

As the 2004 LS election came the BJP+ was seen as doing well nationally and it was thought that BJP+ could at least maintain its ground  if not gain from its 1999 results especially after BJP was able to rope back in Kalyan Singh to rejoin BJP and wind up his RKP.  As it turned out the BJP Upper Caste - OBC conflict was not resolved by Kalyan Singh returning to BJP and the loss of its base accelerated from its 2002-2003 alliance with BSP.  Lastly RLD defected from BJP+ to join up with SP for 2004 LS elections also hurt the BJP+ in Western UP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2016, 11:13:25 AM
Damn, I don't get Indian politics.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 11:14:29 AM
UP 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                11                 22.97%  (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

INC+        79                  9                12.53%  

INC rebel                        1                  0.54%

SP+          79                39                31.73%  (RLD was part of SP+)

BSP          80                19                 22.30%

SBSP        13                  0                   0.49%  (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

AD            57                 0                   1.36%

NLP            7                 1                   0.60%

()

SP+ with it RLD ally clearly had the upper hand as it recovered some of the Muslim vote from INC+ and captured OBC votes from BJP+. BSP held together and retained its vote based despite its ill fated alliance with BJP.  BJP+ continued to lose ground.  INC+ showed that it has revived from the nadir of the mid 1990s but there was a cap on its vote share even with Sonia Gandhi at the helm as SP has recaptured Muslim votes as THE anti-BJP party.

Both the BJP and INC had high hopes in the next roll of the dice for the 2007 assembly elections.  Both figured that anti-incumbency would weigh down on SP and that they would benefit.  It turns out not to be the case.  BSP won a march on both by a creative outreach to Upper Caste voters to create a Dalit-Upper Caste alliance behind BSP to counter the OBC based SP.  This actually polarized the vote between SP+ and BSP to the detriment of INC+ and BJP+ in 2007.    Worst for BJP, after its defeat in the 2004 UP LS election Kalyan Singh split from BJP again and recreated RKP.  BJP+ decided to rope in AD to try to counter these trends but it is to no avail.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 11:26:05 AM
UP 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403               52                18.39%  (JD(U) and AD are part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        2                   0.82%  (includes RKP)

INC+       403               22                  8.68%  

INC rebel                        2                  0.46%

SP+        403              101               26.23%  (INC splinter ABLTC was part of SP+)

SP rebel                         2                  0.57%

BSP         403             206               30.40%

BSP rebel                       1                   0.44%

SBSP        97                 0                   0.94%   (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

RLD        227              10                   3.70%

RPD         14                2                    0.20%

JM         119                1                    0.60%

UPUDF    54                1                     0.35%

RSP       122                1                    0.26%

()

BSP won a majority on the back of an unlikely Dalit-Upper Caste alliance.  SP+ and INC+ kept their vote base but lost seats as BSP vote share surged to ~30%.  BJP+ lost more ground in terms of Upper Caste vote lost and fell it a record low of 52 seats.  In many ways this is an election where it was the BJP's turn to win but instead they fell further behind. This would seem to indicate that the revival of the BJP will take a long time.  As the 2009 LS election approached BJP OBC rebel Kalyan Singh decide to align with SP directly as SP was looking to expand into BJP's OBC vote base.   This seems to have provoked the SP Muslim base to defect to INC.  BJP in response also roped in RLD into its bloc for the 2009 LS elections.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 01:48:53 PM
UP 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                15                21.97%  (JD(U) and RLD was part of BJP+)

INC+        78                21                19.05%  (MD is part of INC+)

SP+          76                24                23.87%  

BSP          80                20                 27.55%

SBSP        16                  0                   0.55%  (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

AD            30                 0                   0.98%

PECP         20                 0                   0.98%

()

In terms of seats it was pretty much a 4 way split with the BJP+ being the weakest of the four blocs but doing better than INC+ in terms of vote share.  SP lost Muslim votes to INC+ and BSP but gained OBC votes from BJP+.  Despite roping in RLD, BJP+ continue to lose vote share and only gained seats as SP weakened.  INC+ was the big gainer as it was able to win Upper Caste votes from BJP+ and Muslim votes from SP+.  BSP was able to corner the vast majority of Dalit votes and gained Upper Caste votes from BJP+ and some Muslim votes from SP even as it did not gain as much in terms of seats.  INC+'s support tends to be more unevenly distributed which gave it an edge over BSP in terms of seats even as it was significantly behind BSP in terms of votes.  PECP which is a Muslim based party also emerged on the scene and captured almost 1% of the vote by running in areas of high Muslim concentration.

As the 2012 Assembly election approached the INC+ feel that it could ride is 2009 performance into at least 3rd place in UP and form the basis of coming back to power in UP eventually.  INC+ roped in RLD from BJP+ in this effort. PECP was also trying to expand its base by roping in AD into an alliance for 2012 assembly elections.   Both BJP and SP also felt it was their turn to come back to power.    But the BJP's decline continued and there was a risk of BJP+ being pushed to 4th by INC+.  Even JD(U) decided to abandon BJP and go on its own.  And of course BJP's old nemesis Kalyan Singh this time created JKP which again will be a BJP OBC splinter and split the BJP vote.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 10:13:52 PM
UP 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403               47                15.16%  

BJP rebel                        1                   1.58%  (includes JKP)

INC+       403               38                14.01%  (RLD was part of INC+)
 
SP+        403             226                 29.39%  

SP rebel                         2                  0.85%  (includes SP splinter RLM)

BSP         403              80                 25.91%

QED+       95                2                    1.18% (SBSP was part of QED+, both are BSP splinters)
 
PECP+    317                 5                  3.30% (AD was part of PECP+)

MD            74                0                   0.92%

NCP        127                1                   0.33%

IEMC       18                 1                    0.25%

()

SP which captured part of the BJP+ OBC base won a majority even while BSP kept its Dalit base intact.  INC+ failed in its attempt to break into the top tier despite a concerted effort by Rahul Gandhi and an alliance with RLD.  After this defeat the INC+ fortunes in UP began to head downward.  BJP also lost ground and was down to ~15% which is a huge drop from ~35% in 1998 LS election.  But just when things look dark for BJP, revival was around the corner.  The elevation of Modi to the BJP leadership in 2013 led to a surge in support for BJP in UP as elsewhere.  Modi who has a OBC background was able to lure Kalyan Singh back into the fold and unite the Upper Caste and OBC factions of the BJP.  Modi's economic growth program was also able to attract Dalit votes away from BSP.  Modi also arranged to rope in AD into an alliance to capture the Kurmi vote.  So when the 2014 LS elections took place it was a perfect storm of a Hindu consolidation for BJP that also attracted Dalit votes, INC+ down on its luck and worn down by anti-incumbency at the center  and SP facing anti-incumbency at the state level.  The UP 2014 LS election would be a tidal wave like no other in UP since the 1984 INC and 1977 JNP tidal waves.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2016, 10:20:31 PM
UP 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                73                43.64%  (AD was part of BJP+)

INC+        78                  2                  8.41%   (RLD and MD was part of INC+)

SP+          76                  5                 22.35%

BSP          80                  0                 19.77%

QED+      27                  0                   0.60%   (SBSP was part of QED+, both are BSP splinters)

AAP          76                  0                   1.02%

PECP        42                  0                   0.62%

()

BJP-AD won pretty much all seats up for grabs.  INC and SP could only win family pocket boroughs and BSP got wiped out.  The Hindu consolidation helped the BJP+ to capture the Upper Caste vote from INC+ and BSP and also took in a good part of the Dalit vote from BSP.  The Muslim vote was splinted but most of it did go to SP+ which managed keep its core vote base intact.  SP+ lost seats mostly because of the massive vote lead by the BJP+.  BSP kept its core Dalit base but was wiped out in terms of seats while the INC+ lost pretty much its entire Upper Caste vote base to BJP and was reduced to levels last seen in the late 1990s.

The BJP+ surge was in part based on several one-off factors several of which might not be valid in a 2017 UP Assembly election.  But for sure BJP+ is in a strong position for 2017 based on the 2014 LS election results.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2016, 02:27:34 PM
For the upcoming 2017 assembly elections it seems that INC is not recovering from the 2014 blow, SP is hurt by anti-incumbency and infighting, and BJP still has some momentum from 2014.  The election should shape up to be BJP vs BSP, or certainly that is how BSP like to frame it.  BJP prefers it to be a 3 way battle between BJP BSP and SP so the Mulsim vote is split.

In 2002 it was a 3 way battle between SP BSP and BJP.  In 2007 and 2012 it was SP vs BSP. 

Given the SP is in big trouble  due to its internal split while the INC shows no sign of life, there is are now talk of a SP-INC alliance to stay relevant.  Rumors are that talks are taking place and that INC will want 100 out or 403 seats from SP who is only willing to part with around 50.  A alliance is unlikely to take place in my view much to the relief of BSP.  The reason why has to do with game theory.

Let's look at the strategies of each of the four parties: BJP SP BSP INC

BJP has in theory the largest base: Upper Castes and non-Yadav OBCs plus a chance to capture some Dalit votes. Main BJP issue is how to balance between the Upper Caste and OBC factions within BJP.  Not projecting a CM candidate is the best way to keep this balance.  If the BJP is too biased in favor of Upper Castes then SP will come in and take the OBC vote.  If the BSP is too biased in favor of OBCs then INC will come in and take the Upper Caste vote. 

SP's strategy is to hold on the Yadav vote to show Muslims that it is THE non-BJP alternative and pull in the Muslim vote.  Then with Yadav-Muslim vote base locked up go after the rest of the OBC vote.

BSP's strategy is to hold on to the Dalit vote and then see if it can peal off Upper Caste votes from BJP or peal off Muslim vote from INC and SP by presenting itself as THE non-BJP alternative.  Of course it has to be careful as a very harsh anti-BJP campaign might turn off Upper Caste votes it needs to win.

INC strategy is to capture a good chunk of Upper Caste or Muslim votes to project relevance in the election.  Use that relevance to capture the other Community and try to pull in Dalit votes as a major player.  At this stage Muslims are not convinced that INC is relevant so they would not waste their votes on INC unless they see Upper Caste votes going to INC.  In 1999 LS and 2009 LS elections the Muslim vote drifted to INC first because in 1999 SP failed to back Sonia Gandhi's attempt to form an non-BJP government at the center angering in UP Muslims and in 2009 SP allied with ex-BJP UP CM Kalyan Singh which also angered UP Muslim voters.  No such situation is taking place now and if anything Muslim vote could drift to BSP.  So the INC this time around has no choice to go after the Upper Caste vote and try to win it from the BJP.

So this is why the INC cannot ally with SP.  Once INC allies with SP, then the Upper Caste which are suspicious of the OBC based SP will for sure go back to BJP.  The BJP, now having Upper Caste votes locked up, will push a pro-OBC agenda and capture enough non-Yadav OBC vote from SP and win the election easy.  And the INC will lose any credibility to go after the Upper Caste vote in future UP elections.

A SP-BSP alliance is also unlikely since Dalits and OBCs are hostile to each other so such an alliance will fail on the ground.

So net net, SP-INC alliance most likely will not take place.  An isolated and weakened SP would mean that it will be BJP vs BSP.  Muslim vote will then go to BSP to stop BJP and make race of it.  Anything else means a easy BJP win.  This scenario still has BJP with the upper hand but with BSP having a chance to hold BJP to below a majority.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2016, 02:36:48 PM
Some UP polls

The Oct India Today poll has

()

()

Which has

BJP      31%   170-183
BSP     28%   115-124
SP       25%     94-103
INC       6%       8-12

Of course the same poll has

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BSP and SP as having the leading candidates for CM.  This is BJP's weakness.  The BJP inability to project a CM candidate because of the need to balance the OBC and Upper Caste factions means that if the election become personalized the BJP loses out to BSP and SP.

Note this poll was done before the SP civil war.  Most likely one has to subtract 5%-7% vote share from SP in this poll and distribute it evenly between BJP and BSP.

The same poll but with caste vote breakdown

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Shows BJP domination of Upper caste and a plurality of non-Yadav OBC.  Shows SP dominate for Yadavs and Muslims and also shows BSP strong with Dalits.  Shows INC is going nowhere in getting the Upper Caste vote which is its only lifeline for survival.   Of course one thing it does show is that the Dalit vote that the BJP captured from BSP in the 2014 LS election has mostly gone back to BSP although it is still strong with non-Yadav OBC.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2016, 02:46:31 PM
A more recent poll done in Dec after the outbreak of the SP civil war by Infopiper shows a much bigger lead for BJP

()

()

BJP    33%    224
BSP   27%      84
SP     22%      72
INC      8%      11

Note the fact that the BJP-BSP spread going from 3% to 6% in this poll relative to the India-Today poll leads to a surge of seats for BJP.

In multi-corned UP, the front that gets above 30% with a lead over 5% second place always wins in a landslide and a absolute majority.  That used to be BJP for LS elections until 2002.  It was BSP in 2007 and SP in 2012.  Now it is BJP again in 2017.

As I pointed out before, if SP-INC form an alliance such an alliance will NOT win 22%+8%.  At least 3%-4% of such an union (from Upper Caste and OBC) will most likely flow to BJP giving the BJP an even bigger win.  Only way to stop BJP looking at this polls is for the SP Muslim base to go over to BSP to try to stop BJP from winning a majority. 
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on December 21, 2016, 03:07:39 PM
i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2016, 03:34:19 PM
i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.

Yes, the fall for INC from 2009-now is quite large and mostly to the benefit of the BJP.  But we should not overstate it.  INC and BJP always overperform in LS elections while BSP and SP always overperform in Assembly elections.   This makes sense since INC and BJP are national parties while BSP and SP are UP regional parties (in de facto terms.) So when INC+ gets 19% in the 2009 LS election it was always not realistic to expect it to win 19% in an  UP assembly election.  In 2002 and 2007 INC only got around 9% in UP Assembly elections.  Now it is polling around 6%-8% which is bad but not that terrible relative to 2002 and 2007.  Remember in 1998 LS election during the INC nadir it only won ~6% of the vote.  Taken in that context INC is weaker than it ever was since 1999 but is still a bit better than 1998.

But the macro story is that since 2013 BJP has taken over as the natural party of governance in India and natural party to maintain national unity from INC.  INC has to either reverse this or  become a large regional party in several states with alliance with other regional forces to counter BJP, a role BJP played in the 1990s against INC.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 07:35:42 AM
SP is not the only party with a family based civil war in UP.  The same is taking place in AD which is actually a pretty funny story.  AD or Apna Dal was founded in 1995 by BSP leader Sone Lal Patel

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Sone Lal Patel who from the OBC Kurmi caste was a founder of BSP but split from BSP when Mayawati took BSP in Dalit focused direction back in the early 1990s.  AD has allied with BJP from time to time but mostly ran on its own and has managed to build up a voting base of 1%-2%.

Sone Lal Patel died in a car accident in 2009 and as a result his wife Krishna Patel took over the leadership of AD

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For 2012 UP Assembly election Krishna Patel took AD into an alliance with PECP and won one seat in the form of Anupriya Patel who is the daughter of Sone Lal Patel  and Krishna Patel.

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Then for 2014 LS elections Anupriya Patel pushed for and helped negotiated an alliance with BJP which lead to a smashing victory in UP.  AD won 2 LS seats one of which was won by Anupriya Patel.  This left Anupriya Patel's UP assembly seat open.  This is where all the trouble began.

Anupriya Patel wanted her husband to run for the seat she is vacating on the AD ticket.  Krishna Patel, AD president and mother of Anupriya Patel wanted to run for that assembly seat herself.  After a bruising family internal battle AD nominated Krishna Patel for the by-election.  It seems the Anupriya Patel faction of the AD did not totally work for her mother and Krishna Patel lost the by-election to the SP candidate.   In anger  Krishna Patel expelled Anupriya Patel  and her husband from AD. Anupriya Patel refused to accept this and insisted that she was the true leader of AD which had the de facto backing of the BJP.  As a result Anupriya Patel is now leading a pro-BJP faction of the AD while the official AD led by Krishna Patel has broken with the BJP.

After a year of sniping back and forth AD splinter party AD(S) was recently formed  with the blessings of Anupriya Patel in case her battle against her mother to control AD fails.  For the 2017 UP Assembly elections most likely AD(S) will ally with BJP while AD will be part of some unspecified anti-BJP alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 04:23:57 PM
Another state where there will be assembly elections would be Uttarakhand

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Uttarakhand is a small state that was part of UP until it was split out in 2000.  Historically the BJP and INC has been strong here with BSP and SP being weaker here.  Once the state split out SP pretty quickly declined to a micro-party while BSP still has some hold on Dalits.  UKD which was a movement for the creation for Uttarakhand are stronger at the assembly level but has also been on the decline.

Just like UP it is best to start in 1998 LS election.  It was held when Uttarakhand  was part of UP but it is easy to split the Uttarakhand  data out. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 04:31:08 PM
1998 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  5                46.78%   

INC            5                  0                 19.91%   

AIIC(S)       1                  0                  3.56%   (AIIC(S) is a INC splinter)

BSP            5                  0                12.91%

SP             3                  0                 11.06%

UKD+        2                  0                  2.31%

BJP's domination here is clear.  BJP and INC do better in LS elections than Assembly elections.  But over time  the state will become bi-polar.  AIIC(S) will merge into INC again and BSP/SP will decline as the anti-BJP vote will begin to merge for the 1999 LS elections.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 04:35:59 PM
1999 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  4                39.07%   

INC            5                  1                 37.61%   

BSP            5                  0                12.20%

SP             5                  0                   6.09%

Again, for 1999 LS elections Uttarakhand was still part of UP but I can break out the results. Sonia Gandhi taking over of INC, the SP's failure to back a non-BJP government at the center, Upper Caste vs OBC conflict in the BJP all caused a surge in the INC vote share to pretty much pull even in terms of votes with BJP but BJP still manage a 4-1 win in terms of seats.

After Uttarakhand was formed the BJP formed the first government and was hopeful of being re-elected in the first Uttarakhand assembly elections of 2002.  UKD which was the movement that agitated for the creation of Uttarakhand made a big push in the 2002 assembly election which lead to a splintered vote that INC won by narrow margins in terms of vote share.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 04:45:50 PM
2002 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         70                19                25.75%  

BJP rebel                         1                  2.71%

INC          70                36                 26.89%

INC rebel                       2                   4.14%  

NCP         26                  1                   1.50%  (NCP is a INC splinter)

BSP         68                  7                 10.92%

SP           63                  0                   6.27%

UJP         44                  0                   2.42% (UJP is a SP splinter)

UKD        62                  4                   5.48%

()

INC won in a very close and splintered election.  Both BJP and INC were dogged by rebels but INC won a decisive victory in terms of seats.  As the 2004 LS election approached it is still a battle between INC and BJP but the SP was gaining due to the surge in SP in UP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 22, 2016, 04:51:22 PM
2004 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  3                41.05%   

INC            5                  1                 38.38%   

BSP            3                  0                  6.78%

SP             5                  1                   7.95%

UKD          4                  0                   1.65%

BJP and INC mostly gained from BSP as the state became more bipolar but the SP surge in UP helped it to gain some votes and win a seat. 

As the 2007 Uttarakhand assembly election approached it seems that BSP regained some ground as the assembly election are not as polarized as LS election.  This time around the vote again is splintered but worked to the advantage of the BJP. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 22, 2016, 05:22:29 PM
Jaichind has there ever been any talk of introducing PR in Indian states? Obviously illiteracy would prevent any particulatly complicated systems, but some of these results are pretty unproportional.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2016, 09:14:14 AM
Jaichind has there ever been any talk of introducing PR in Indian states? Obviously illiteracy would prevent any particulatly complicated systems, but some of these results are pretty unproportional.

Not really.  I think they inherited the Westminster system and the social tensions between different communities so complex and turbulent that it is best to keep status quo.  India has not done a redistricting at the Lok Shaba level since 1971 mostly to prevent conflict over updated numbers on population distribution between different communities (Muslims Dalits etc etc). 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2016, 09:25:22 PM
2007 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         69                34                31.87%  

BJP rebel                         2                  2.84%  (includes BJP splinter BJS)

INC          69                21                 29.56%

INC rebel                       1                   2.72%  

NCP         26                  0                   1.67%

BSP         69                  8                 11.75%

SP           55                  0                   4.95%

UKD        61                  3                   5.49%

()

The slow polarization toward a two party system in the  Uttarakhand assembly elections continued but with BJP now having a small edge in terms of vote share and seats over INC and formed the government.  As the 2009 LS elections approached the 2008 Nuclear Deal crisis gave it an edge at the national level leading the INC winning a surprising large victory in Uttarakhand.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2016, 09:29:06 PM
2009 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  0                33.86%  

INC            5                  5                 43.21%  

BSP            5                  0                15.26%

SP             2                  0                   1.83%

UKD          5                  0                   1.23%

INC won a clean sweep of the 5 seats.  Like in UP the SP lost the Muslim vote to INC who also gained from BJP.  BSP also consolidated the Dalit vote from both INC and BJP and gained vote share.  Based on this result the INC was confident that it will win back power in the 2012 assembly elections in Uttarakhand.  The creation of the BJP splinter URM which attracted the usually pro-BJP veteran vote added to the BJP woes.   It turned out it would be a lot closer than expected due to the large number of INC rebels.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2016, 09:34:44 PM
2012 Uttarakhand Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         70                31                33.39%  

BJP rebel                         0                  3.11%  (includes BJP splinter URM)

INC          70                32                 34.04%

INC rebel                       3                   5.33%  

BSP         70                  3                 12.29%

SP           45                  0                   1.43%

SP rebel                         0                   1.29%

UKD        44                  1                   1.95%

UJP           2                  0                   0.69%

()

The consolidation of votes to a bipolar system continued.  BJP actually gained vote share but lost a few seats.  INC unexpectedly failed to gain a majority of seats.  INC then formed a government by getting the INC rebels, BSP and UKD to support INC to gain a majority.  The BJP also faced significant internal rebellion but the fact it kept it so close with anti-incumbency signaled continued resiliency of the BJP.  As a result when the Modi wave of 2014 LS came the BJP won a crushing victory in Uttarakhand.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2016, 09:41:21 PM
2014 Uttarakhand LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP             5                  5                55.93%  

INC            5                  0                 34.40%  

BSP            5                  0                  4.78%

SP             3                  0                   0.40%

AAP          5                  0                   1.62%

The BJP landslide was mostly based on capturing the BSP Dalit base as the BSP was driven down to single digit vote share.  INC mostly held on its core vote but all anti-INC votes consolidated behind the BJP to give it a massive win.   It seems for the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly election the BJP should be a shoe-in to win.  Then the 2016 Uttarakhand Constitutional crisis intervened to reshuffle the deck and added extra volatility to the 2017 Assembly election.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 25, 2016, 10:05:36 AM
The source of the Uttarakhand constitutional crisis stems from the removal of the INC CM Vijay Bahuguna, whose father was an INC CM of UP back in the 1970s, in early 2014.  INC high command had done this to try to stem the BJP surge in Uttarakhand to salvage a seat or two in the upcoming LS election in 2014.   In his place INC high command put in was Harish Rawat who did not stem the BJP surge in the 2014 LS elections.

By early 2016 it was clear that the INC was in big trouble relative to the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections and the Bahuguna faction made their move.  Bahuguna and 8 other INC MLAs demanded that  Rawat be removed as CM and  Bahuguna be re-installed to lead the INC into battle against the BJP in 2017.  At this time INC had 36 MLAs (it gained 1 from a BSP defection and won 3 by-elections from BJP to go from 32 to 36) with outside support of the Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) which consisted of 6 MLAs (2 remaining BSP MLAs, 1 UKD MLA, and 3 rebel INC MLAs) while the BJP had 28 MLAs.  The threat of the Bahuguna faction of 9 MLA was real in the sense that if you add these 9 MLAs to BJP 28 MLAs would give Bahuguna-BJP 37 MLAs and a majority.  Problem is the Anti-Defection law that stated that any party split which did not have the support of at least 1/3 of the party caucus is invalid and the splinter group could be expelled as an MLA by the Speaker.  So in that sense the Bahuguna rebellion is not valid because 36 INC MLAs + 6 PDF MLAs - 9 Bahuguna rebels = 33 MLAs which is still bigger than the 28 BJP MLAs. 

With that understanding the Uttarakhand INC rejected the Bahuguna faction ultimatum.  Then the Bahuguna faction did indeed rise in rebellion anyway claiming they are not breaking away from the INC but merely want a vote on who is CM.  Their plan is to work around the Anti-Defection law by not splitting the INC but in a vote for CM from an alliance with the BJP to defeat  Harish Rawat.  Problem with that is that in such a vote the INC will issue a whip for all INC MLAs to vote for Harish Rawat and violation of that whip would automatically expel 9 Bahuguna faction MLA from INC and be removed as MLAs.  As the vote was coming up the NDA central government claiming that the Uttarakhand government in chaos and put the state under "Governor's rule" which really means the NDA central government will take over from the Harish Rawat government.  The plan here seems to be for the BJP to control the Uttarakhand government, use that power to extract further INC MLAs to defect in order to clear the 1/3 threshold of the Anti-Defection law.  It was never clear why the BJP was doing this since they were a shoe-in to win the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections.  Surely one year does not make that much of a difference and the optics of this move would damage the BJP.

Sure enough, the India High Court ruled that putting a state under "Governor's rule" is illegal and countermanded it.  The vote of confidence took place after the INC Speaker expelled the 9 Bahuguna faction MLAs and the remaining INC-PDF MLAs beat by the BJP in the vote. 

This entire episode left the BJP with a worse image plus now they have to accommodate the 9 Bahuguna faction MLAs in their own ranks which would only add to rebellion to the original BJP members who now have to make space for the newcomers.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 25, 2016, 10:11:50 AM
Last known polls for Uttarakhand were in October.  First is

Axis - India Today which has

BJP         43%    38-43
INC        39%     26-31
Others   18%        1-4


While UP/UK Live has a more negative view on BJP chances

BJP       20
INC      38
BSP       5
Others   7

One way or another the INC position is much better than it could have expected before the entire Uttarakhand constitutional crisis of Spring 2016.  I still think the BJP should win but the INC might avoid a total landslide.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 25, 2016, 10:22:11 AM
Of course a major factor in all assembly elections in early 2017 (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur) would be the issue of demonetisation.  On US election night BJP PM Modi announced that all 500 and 1000 INR notes will be made invalid (this is around 85% of Indian money supply) and that all citizens has until Dec 30 to exchange all their 500 and 1000 notes for the new 500 and 2000 notes.  The purpose was in theory to hit the black economy but in reality it is also about moving India to a digital cash age and allow the government to have a higher tax base (right now only around 1.5% of Indian citizens pays income taxes.) 

This move was initially popular despite hardships of banks/ATM not being ready to support such a transition.  Modi promised that all hardships would be resolved by Dec 30.  As time went on it was clear that the execution of this, in theory, good idea is poor and there is no way problems would be resolved by the end of 2016.  One benefit for the BJP in places like UP is that this move wipes out value of large amounts of cash which cuts the SP money advantage as the ruling party in UP.  BJP and BSP which are more cadre parties are less affected by fundraising issues.  Of course in Jan and Feb when the issues of demonetisation are not resolved the BJP will take hits.  How much is not known.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 25, 2016, 10:29:03 AM
In UP there are talks of a grand alliance of SP-INC-RLD and rumors that there are pretty advanced negiations.    The SP seems eager to get this deal done and has been pretty public about that.  The SP "deal" seems to be for SP to yield to INC-RLD 100 seats which would most likely be split 78-22.  It is said that INC is demanding at least 90 if not 100 by itself and also insist that if the alliances comes into power the INC will be able to appoint a Deputy CM.

As I pointed out before I am skeptical that such an alliance can be created and even more skeptical that it will work on the ground as this completely cedes the Upper Caste vote to the BJP and frees BJP up to throw their resources into winning the OBC vote with the help of Modi. OBC hostility toward INC will drag down SP's ability to compete with BJP for non-Yadav OBC votes.  The SP, I suspect, is pushing for this alliance more to try to marginalize its BSP rival to make sure that after a BJP victory SP is the main alternative to BJP and not BSP.  

If the INC goes along with this alliance and does not win the INC would be finished as a force in UP, not that it is no good shape right now, since it will forfeit its ability to  after the Upper Caste vote for at least several election cycles.   From the INC point of view, their preferred partner would be BSP.  A BSP-INC alliance allows the INC to continue to appeal to its traditional Upper Caste voters who are much more hostile to SP than BSP.  It also allows INC to try to go after the anti-incumbency vote.  Of course BSP feeling that it is its turn again to win would not consider such an alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 28, 2016, 08:46:15 AM
As I have expected, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav announced that SP will contest the election alone.  In a blow to to his son and UP CM Akhilesh Yadav he also announced that SP will not project a CM candidate and that SP MLAs will choose CM after SP captures a majority.  This is pretty much a vote of non-confidence in his son Akhilesh Yadav.  At this stage Akhilesh Yadav is pretty much the only positive asset SP has as he is fairly popular given his clean and developmental image.  If the UP assembly election becomes a battle of CM candidates then Akhilesh Yadav would actually put SP in the game. 

The backdrop of all this is the ongoing war between Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav who was made UP SP chief.  Both Shivpal Singh Yadav  and  Akhilesh Yadav came up with rival list of candidates with  Akhilesh Yadav  complaining opening that the Shivpal Singh Yadav list are filled with known criminal party hoppers and local dons which would destroy the clean and developmental image that Akhilesh Yadav has been projecting.  Of course Shivpal Singh Yadav would counterclaim that as UP SP chief he is in charge of the nomination process and the fact is these local dons are free agents and if SP does not sign them up they will sign up with BJP or BSP.

Looks like the SP campaign is a running disaster and they will get crushed and pushed to third place.  The election now will become BJP vs BSP.  The dynamic now will be for Muslim votes to line up behind BSP and perhaps some Yadav votes defect from SP to BJP to stop BSP.  BJP should have the edge in this battle.

It is clear that Mulayam Singh Yadav is prioritizing control of SP over a winning or even credible campaign.  He is perhaps hoping for a BJP landslide that wipes out BSP as well and after the elections he can reduce the power of Akhilesh Yadav with SP further and try to lead SP to  be the alternative to BJP.   One way out for Akhilesh Yadav  which puts him in a better position 5 years from now but is unlikely to take is for him to blot from SP and form his own rival SP party called, say, SP (Janata) where he would still accept  Mulayam Singh Yadav  as the godfather of the SP(J) but will expel  Shivpal Singh Yadav and followers from SP(J).  He could then create an alliance between SP(J), INC, and RLD splitting seats something like 200 150 50.  This combination would actually do well with Upper Caste votes and higher income OBCs and win some Muslim and Dalit votes along the way.  The BJP would still win a majority but SP(J)-INC-RLD might emerge as the alternative to BJP as opposed to BSP or SP especially if SP(J)-INC-RLD does better than SP and provoke defections en masse from SP to SP(J) after the elections.  I doubt    Akhilesh Yadav  has the guts to do this.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 29, 2016, 12:34:09 PM
DailyO which is part of the India Today group did a bunch of surveys in Nov and then Dec on the affect of demonetization on UP and came away with the following conclusions:

1) BJP was in a strong position in UP until demonetization and then their fortunes declined.
2) A lot of UP migrant laborers had to travel back to rural areas due to their wages not being paid due to demonetization
3) Due to demonetization factory output in UP fell 30%
4) Lots of women in UP are upset at demonetization due to the fact that their private stash of cash hidden away from their husbands are now being revealed since they have to exchange it for new bills
5) Despite demonetization Modi still remains popular in UP but this might decline if things do not get better after 12/30 as promised by Modi.
6) Akhilesh Yadav has a positive image and is significantly more popular than SP
7) Contrary to other polls in Dec where it looks like it will be BJP vs BSP this survey shows that it is BJP vs SP.  Out of the 75 administrative districts  in UP DailyO surveyed 71 and found the BJP ahead in 32, SP ahead in 30, BSP ahead in 7, and INC ahead in 1.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 29, 2016, 12:46:11 PM
A day after Mulayam Singh Yadav released a list of 325 (out of 403) SP candidates from his brother Shivpal Singh Yadav which are filled with supporters of Shivpal Singh Yadav and excludes supporters of CM Akhilesh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav  might be doing what I am suggesting, which is to split the SP.  

Today Akhilesh Yadav announced his own parallel list of 235 candidates filled with his supporters and excludes supportors of Shivpal Singh Yadav.  If nothing is done soon to reconcile these two lists then SP is headed for a split with a slate of candidates by the Akhilesh Yadav faction potentially running as rebels against the official SP candidates.

The game of tit-fo-tat between Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle  Shivpal Singh Yadav is getting pretty comical.  Since  Akhilesh Yadav is the CM he gets to decide who is in the cabinet and since Shivpal Singh Yadav is the president of SP in UP he gets to decide who to expel from the SP.  So over the last weeks or so we had more and more pro-Akhilesh Yadav MLAs who are in the cabinet being excluded from the offical SP list and also expelled from the SP.  At the same time  pro-Shivpal Singh Yadav MLAs while still being in SP are being ousted from the UP cabinet by Akhilesh Yadav but at the same time being on the official SP list of candidates.  So the UP SP cabinet while in theory a SP government are increasing being filled by SP rebels who are expelled from the SP for being to pro-Akhilesh Yadav relative to Shivpal Singh Yadav.

Just to be clear who are the big players in SP

SP founder and supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav
()


SP UP CM and son of of Mulayam Singh Yadav Akhilesh Yadav who is fairly popular in UP, at least relative to SP
()


SP UP President and brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav  Shivpal Singh Yadav who is a good behind the scenes person with fairly low popular appeal
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 29, 2016, 01:13:12 PM
Reading about the battles between  Akhilesh Yadav vs Shivpal Singh Yadav who has the backing of Mulayam Singh Yadav reminds me a lot of the repeated history of Prince's revolts against their father the Mughal emperor. 

The Mughals did not have a succession  policy of Primogeniture although the eldest son was the default successor but was not legally binding.  This lead to battles among the sons of the emperor to battle for the throne which included rebellion against the emperor which was also true for the Ottoman empire as well.  Examples are Prince Salim's unsuccessful rebellion against his father Akbar the Great (1601-1604) but that did not stop him from coming to the throne as Jahangiri n 1605 when Akbar died.  Prince Khusrau then revolted unsuccessfully against Emperor Jahangir in 1606.  Prince Aurangzeb successful rebellion against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and bother Dara in 1659 and made himself emperor.  And Prince Akbar unsuccessful rebellion against Emperor Aurangzeb in 1681.

It seems the SP family feud is in keeping with tradition of Indian royalty.   


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 30, 2016, 09:54:34 AM
Akhilesh Yadav expelled from SP.  SP split inevitable.  Not clear how Akhilesh Yadav will respond. He could create a new party or try to capture SP.   He does have the support of the majority of SP MLAs. One sign for the future is Akhilesh Yadav list of 235 candidates seems to exclude candidates in seats that INC seem to want.  An Akhilesh Yadav-INC alliance without the burden of the old SP will attract Upper Caste and high income OBC votes, in other words,  the BJP base.  It might struggle to win Muslim votes of the old SP is still seen as viable. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 30, 2016, 04:36:03 PM
If Akhilesh Yadav wants to stay on as CM he will need around 165 out of 229 SP MLAs to stick with him.  INC and RLD has 38 MLAs between them and will back Akhilesh Yadav. 125 SP MLAs were at Akhilesh Yadav's home within an hour of Akhilesh Yadav being expelled and a bunch more could not attend since they were out of town. Looks like it will be close if it came to a vore of no confidence.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 30, 2016, 05:18:53 PM
Ironically Akhilesh Yadav was not the only Indian CM expelled by his party in a 24 hour period.   In the tiny Northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh the CM Pema Khandu was expelled by the ruling PPA which is an INC splinter that is allied with BJP for plotting to merge PPA with BJP.  Looks like PPA will install the 5th CM of Arunachal Pradesh this year. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 30, 2016, 09:47:17 PM
Yesterday the battle between the  Akhilesh Yadav faction and the Mulayam Singh Yadav faction was List vs List.  Today it is Meeting vs Meeting.  Both Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav decided to hold parallel meetings of all SP MLAs. Akhilesh Yadav's meeting is at 9AM and Mulayam Singh Yadav's meetings is at 10:30AM.  How many SP MLAs attends each respectively meeting will give us a sense on the balance of power between the two factions.  It is very similar to the 1969 split of the INC between the Indira Gandhi faction (which became INC(R)) and the Anti-Indira Gandhi Syndicate  faction (which became INC(O) where both factions held a meeting of all INC MPs on the same say which was a test of strength of the relative balance of power between the two factions.  Of course a couple of INC MPs hedged their bets and attend both meetings.  We might see some SP MLAs do the same :)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 30, 2016, 09:51:49 PM
Note that along with Akhilesh Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav, cousin of Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle of  Akhilesh Yadav and close confidant of  Akhilesh Yadav was also expelled.

() 

Ram Gopal Yadav is a Rajya Sabha MP while his daughter is a Lok Sabha MP.   Akhilesh Yadav's wife, Dimple Yadav, is a Lok Sabha MP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 31, 2016, 11:43:50 AM
Almost 200 MLAs showed to Akhilesh Yadav's meeting whereas only around 20 MLA showed up to Mulayam Singh Yadav's meeting.  The result was clear.  After this show of strength,  Akhilesh Yadav visited Mulayam Singh Yadav who with Shivpal Singh Yadav, yielding to reality, took Akhilesh Yadav back into SP.  At Akhilesh Yadav's instance,  Ram Gopal Yadav was also taken back.  It is a complete victory for Akhilesh Yadav.  Mulayam Singh Yadav has accepted the reality that SP is now Akhilesh Yadav's SP party.   A lot of Indians are tweeting about how this is just like  Prince Aurangzeb's successful rebellion against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and bother Dara in 1659 and made himself emperor.  In the coming days we will see how Akhilesh Yadav will handle the candidate list issues as well as the issue of alliance with INC and RLD.

 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 31, 2016, 12:11:04 PM
The result of this SP civil war is opportunity for INC and RLD and a disaster for BJP and BSP.  While an alliance between the old SP and INC would likely drive away Upper Caste voters away since  Mulayam Singh Yadav is seen as a Yadav Caste leader, an Akhilesh Yadav SP allied with INC and RLD will be able to target Upper caste votes.  A non-viable SP would mean that Muslim votes drift toward BSP while a viable SP would retain Muslim votes, especially with INC as an ally.  So an united SP allied with INC and RLD would be able to go after the BJP vote base as well as to hold on to the Muslim vote.  Of course there will still be anti-incumbency but if Akhilesh Yadav pulls off an alliance with INC and RLD then it will be a three way battle between BJP, BSP and SP-INC-RLD with BJP with a slight edge but it is totally possible that it will be a hung assembly.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 31, 2016, 12:32:00 PM
A look at the smaller UP parties from 2012 finds the following:

RLM - SP splinter founded by Amar Singh.  After 2012 Amar Singh merged RLM into RLD.  In 2016 Amar Singh left RLD to re-join SP.  Amar Singh is a known enemy of Akhilesh Yadav and his return to SP was part of the reason for the recent SP civil war.  With Akhilesh Yadav in complete control of SP Amar Singh might be expelled from SP and perhaps even reconstitute RLM.

AD - Allied with BJP for 2014.  Now has split into pro-BJP (AD(S)) and anti-BJP factions.  AD(S) will be part of BJP+.  Not clear what AD will do.

QED - BSP splinter that was allied with SBSP in 2012 but dominated by the Ansari mafia don family.  Merged into SP by Shivpal Singh Yadav over the objections of Akhilesh Yadav.  Now that Akhilesh Yadav is in complete control the Ansaris might get expelled from SP and QED reconstituted.

SBSP - BSP splinter that was alled with QED in 2012.  Has joined BJP+ for the 2017 assembly elections.

RLD - allied with INC+ in 2012 and 2014 but broke off the alliance after 2014.  Now allied with JD(U) who has no real base in UP.  Has been in talks with SP for a SP-RLD-JD(U) alliance.  Now that Akhilesh Yadav is in charge it is likely that RLD will join a SP-INC-RLD-JD(U) alliance.

JKP - BJP OBC rebel party led by perennial BJP rebel Kalyan Singh folded up JKP and merged it with with BJP in 2013 after Modi took charge of BJP.   Kalyan Singh whose main enemy in BJP are the Upper Caste BJP establishment always had a good relationship with fellow OBC Modi.  Kalyan Singh is now been appointed Governor of Rajasthan by Modi where he can stay out of trouble for BJP.

PECP - A Muslim based party that was allied with AD in 2012.  Will ally with MD this time around.

MD - A Western UP OBC based party that was allied with INC in 2014.  Will ally with PECP this time around.

IEMC - A Muslim based party.  Significant parts of the party has joined SP so most likely will have low impact this time around.

NCP - Not clear if NCP will join SP led grand alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 01, 2017, 12:10:56 PM
Third twist within 48 hours of the SP drama.  In the SP Convention called by Ram Gopal Yadav in which the compromise of yesterday Mulayam Singh Yadav agreed to let go ahead for today has been taken over completely by Akhilesh Yadav partisans.  Just before the convention started Mulayam Singh Yadav took another U-turn and announced the convention illegal which did not stop the Akhilesh Yadav partisans from moving ahead. 

The convention then appointed Akhilesh Yadav the SP president and kicked Mulayam Singh Yadav upstairs with the title "Mentor."  It also expelled Akhilesh Yadav's enemy Amar Singh from SP as well as removing  Shivpal Singh Yadav as the head of the UP SP unit.  Akhilesh Yadav gave an emotional speech where he still claimed he was loyal to his father and will win the upcoming election under the mentorship of his father (of course doing so at the same time stabbing his father in the back.)  The Akhilesh Yadav partisans then rushed to the Lucknow SP UP headquarters, took it over, ousting the few Shivpal Singh Yadav partisans that remain there and removed Shivpal Singh Yadav nameplate from the office. 

With almost the entire SP infrastructure going over to Akhilesh Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav is reduced proclaiming the entire SP convention illegal, expelling Ram Gopal Yadav from SP for the second time in 48 hours, and sending a letter to ECI saying that the appointment of Akhilesh Yadav as President of SP is illegal.  The Akhilesh Yadav camp are sending similar letter to ECI to claiming control of SP.  It is now a battle of who has legal control of SP and the SP election symbol.  With few MP and MLA behind him, it is a battle that Mulayam Singh Yadav will lose.

This is a re-run of the 1659 Prince Aurangzeb coup against his father Emperor Shah Jahan and proclaiming himself emperor.  Shah Jahan was then kicked upstairs, declared incompetent, and but under house arrest.   I am pretty such once  Akhilesh Yadav is done with this coup he will also declare his father no longer of sound mind and competent.

I guess this coup has been a long time coming.  If you look at the various ads the Akhilesh Yadav camp has been coming out with in the last few months, like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaZcnjneeVI

It is clear it is all about Akhilesh Yadav (and his pretty wife Dimple Yadav) with his father and SP head Mulayam Singh Yadav nowhere to be seen.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 02, 2017, 11:01:05 AM
One of the reasons the UP assembly election is important to BJP is that NDA does not have a majority in the Upper House or Rajya Sabha which means Modi could not push through major reforms without getting either UPA or other anti-NDA forces on board.  Winning assembly elections are a way to slowly build such a majority.  It is for such a reason that NDA's defeat in Delhi and Bihar in 2015 stung.  

Right now out of 245 seats NDA (BJP TDP SAD PDP BPF NPF RPI SDF) have 73 seats with 4 pro-NDA nominated members.  Also add in AIADMK with 13 and BDP with 8 as possible allies for NDA in the future adds up to 98 out of 245, far from a majority.  Over 2017 and 2018 this number can go up but only if BJP does well in 2017 assembly elections (UP Punjab Uttarakhand Goa HP and Gujarat).  

We can simulate the best and worst case scenarios for NDA in Rajya Sabha over 2017 to 2019.

                                             NDA                    pro-NDA          AIADMK       BJD          Greater
                                                                      nominated                                           NDA
end 2016                               73                          4                    13            8               98

                 Up for         Best        Worse  
              re-election     Case         Case

Goa               1             +1             0
Gujarat          3               0            -1
WB                5               0             0
end 2017                     74            72                   4                    13             8             99-97

Nomin           4                                                 +4
AP                 3             +1          +1
Bihar             6               0           -1
Chhattisgarh 1               0             0
Gujarat         4              -1           -2
Haryana        1             +1          +1
HP                 1              0            -1
Jharkhand     2             +1          +1
Karnataka     4             -1            -1
Kerala           3               0            0
MP                5              0             0
Marharastra  6             +2          +2
Delhi            3               0             0
Odisha          3              0              0                                                           +1
Rajasthan     3            +2           +2
Sikkim          1              0              0
Telangana     3              0              0
UP              10            +5           +2
Uttarakhand 1            +1             0
WB              4               0             0
end 2018                   85           76                      8                  13                 9          115-106

Assam         2            +2            +1
TN               6              0             0                                          -1
end 2019                   87           77                      8                 12                  9          116-106

It seems even if BJP does pretty well in the 2017 assembly elections, at the end of 2019 NDA plus possible allies will be at at most 116 out of 245 seats, still not a majority.   The way for NDA/Modi to have a free hand to do what it wants has to be to well in the 2017 assembly elections and those in 2018 as well, win re-election in 2019 for the Lok Shaba and sometime in 2020 or 2021 UPA will gain a majority in  Rajya Sabha.  Of course that will be just in time for anti-incumbency to settle in for  Modi since the would have been in power for 6-7 years already by then.

Most critical for BJP to even achieve a majority in 2020 in the  Rajya Sabha would for it to win a majority in UP assembly elections in 2017.  If they are held to 1/3 of the seats in UP then they better do well in the 2018 assembly elections (Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh) which would be difficult since they will be running against the weight of double incumbency in those states.  This is why UP assembly elections in 2017 for the BJP is do or die.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 02, 2017, 11:18:32 AM
Just to show the disparity between the Lok Shaba and  Rajya Sabha  for the BJP one just has to look at UP.  Out of the 80 UP Lok Shaba seats, NDA has 73 seats (71 BJP 2 AD) with SP holding 5 and INC having 2.  But because BJP did poorly in the 2007 and 2012 UP Assembly elections, BJP only has 3 out of 31  Rajya Sabha seats in UP with BSP 6, INC 3, and SP 19.  But if BJP does well in 2017 UP assembly elections then it can use those numbers to main gains in the 20 UP Rajya Sabha seats that are up for re-election in 2018 and 2020 with 10 each.  If BJP wins a majority then it can gain 5 Rajya Sabha UP seats each in 2018 and 2020 each.
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 02, 2017, 11:29:12 AM
The SP civil war now reaches into ECI today.  Both Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav went to visit ECI today in New Delhi to claim the SP election symbol.  ECI could either 1) Give the symbol to Akhilesh Yadav faction 2) Give the symbol to Mulayam Singh Yadav faction or 3) Freeze the symbol and make both SP factions to run in 2017 with two separate symbols. 

In the meantime right after ousting his father as President of SP and installing himself Akhilesh Yadav tweeted out

"Sometimes to protect the ones you love you must make the right decision. What I did today was a tough decision but one that I had to take."

Which I guess is true.  Although it seems Akhilesh Yadav  seems to be in a pretty good mood yesterday at the SP convention as he made this "tough decision"
()

And certainly his partisans seems to be pretty excited about this "tough decision."
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: FredLindq on January 03, 2017, 03:48:37 AM
Is BJD back in alliance or supporting BJP and NDA again?
What about AIADAMK now when its leader J. died


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on January 03, 2017, 05:41:42 AM
It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 03, 2017, 10:52:45 AM
Is BJD back in alliance or supporting BJP and NDA again?
What about AIADAMK now when its leader J. died

BJD right now is not in NDA but is often seen a a party that can do business with BJP.  BJD's main motivation is its continued domination of Odisha(used to be Orissa.)  Right now in Odisha it is a 3 party system where BJD is dominant followed by INC and then BJP.  Given BJD still sees INC as its main enemy  it is more likely to align with BJP if pushed comes to shove.  Of course given the decline of INC in Odisha last couple of election cycles BJD decided that dumping BJP does not hurt and could enhance its domination of Odisha politics as it can then capture the Muslim and Leftist votes for itself.  If INC were the surge again in Odisha then BJD will go back to joining NDA.

For AIADMK the death of Jayalalithaa did give the BJP an opening to pull AIADMK into its orbit.  The BJP hope was that Panneerselvam, who has no mass base, stays on as CM and nominal head of AIADMK and the intra-factional conflicts within AIADMK would then pull AIADMK into NDA.  It seems that what took place was that all AIADMK factions, seeing the danger from BJP and its DMK rival it it does not pull together decided to coalesce around  Jayalalithaa's chief aide, Sasikala Natarajan, who has never given a political speech in her whole life, as leader of AIADMK.  

Sasikala Natarajan
()

There is also now pressure for Sasikala to become TN CM over the objections of Panneerselvam.  I made this comparison before, but this is like if Hillary Clinton was elected President, then died in office, and then the Democratic Party coalesces around Huma Abedin as leader of Democratic party and then pressure now President Tim Kaine to resign to make way for Huma Abedin to become President.  So powerful was  Jayalalithaa's hold on AIADMK that her chief aide would do as an successor since she has no blood relatives.  Anyway this development is for sure bad news for BJP as it is well known that Sasikala, who is a good behind-the-scenes operator for AIADMK, is pretty negative on BJP.  The fact that Sasikala might become a strong leader for AIADMK will also mean that AIADMK will not fall apart for now and the duopoly of AIADMK-DMK will continue giving BJP no space to grow in TN.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 03, 2017, 10:56:43 AM
It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on January 03, 2017, 12:00:38 PM
It is probably a good idea for BJP to not get Upper House majority since then it becomes insanely autocratic & does stupid things like demonetization!

Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 07:39:07 AM
The UP drama does not end.  Even after the Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions both went to ECI to claim the SP symbol,  Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav meet several times to work out a deal to re-unite SP.  The deal Akhilesh Yadav is offering is a 1) Mulayam Singh Yadav restored to position of Mentor-President but Akhilesh Yadav will control the candidate selection and alliance making and 2) Shivpal Singh Yadav moved out of UP politics moving giving him some sort of national role  like a Rajya Sabha seat.  It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav insist on having control for candidate selection so there is still deadlock. 

The reason why  Akhilesh Yadav wants a deal but insist on candidate selection/alliance making is because one can game out the various election scenarios given different SP configurations since that is the wild card in this election.

1) Strong Old SP.  SP maintains Yadav and Muslims vote while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with BSP trying to scrap Muslims votes from SP and INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.    Result: Very narrow BJP win over SP with BJP far from majority

2) Mediocre Old SP.  SP still has most of the Yadav and Muslim votes but some Muslim vote drift to BSP while BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.  SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.   Result: BJP landslide  win with clear majority with both SP and BSP far behind.

3) Weak Old SP.  SP loses a majority of its Muslim base to BSP while  BJP has Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes.    SP and BJP battle it out for lower OBC with the BJP having an edge.   INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Losing its Muslim base means SP is not competitive and the election becomes a BJP vs BSP affair.  Some Yadav votes drift from SP to BJP to block BSP. Result: Significant BJP win with narrow majority over BSP with SP far behind.

4) New SP with old SP working against it without INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Muslim votes to both Old SP and BSP and loses Yadav votes to Old SP.  New SP is competitive with BJP for Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes but it is not enough to make up the loss of Muslim and Yadav votes.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  INC trying to scrap Upper Caste votes from BJP to no avail.  Result: Narrow BJP win over SP with BJP short of majority.

5) New SP with old SP working against it but with INC-RLD alliance.  New SP loses Yadav votes to Old SP but with INC-RLD alliance keeps the Muslim vote with INC alliance and gains Jats vote with RLD alliance.  New SP-INC competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes and makes up for the loss of the Yadav vote to Old SP.  BJP has the edge over new SP for lower OBC votes although some lower OBC votes goes to Old SP.  Result: Neck-to-neck between BJP and New SP-INC-RLD

6) New SP with old SP support without INC-RLD alliance.  United SP consolidates Muslim and Yadav votes and is somewhat competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes  but is more competitive relatively with BJP for lower OBC vote.  Result:  Neck-to-neck between BJP and united SP.

7) New SP with old SP support with INC-RLD alliance.  United SP-INC-RLD consolidates Muslims, Yadav, and Jat vote and is competitive with BJP for  Upper Caste and Higher OBC votes with New SP image and INC part of alliance.  BJP does do better with lower OBCs since the relative strength of Old SP is smaller with this setup but does not make up for the anti-BJP consolidation and losses in its Upper Caste and Higher OBC vote bank.  Result: Narrow victory for United SP-INC-RLD over BJP.

Until the Akhilesh Yadav  coup it looked like scenario #2 or #3 was likely to take place with #3 are more and more likely.   Ideally Akhilesh Yadav wants scenario #7 ergo he is proposing a deal where he still is free to form an alliance with INC-RLD and project a pro-development image but needs to avoid #4.  He needs either an alliance with INC-RLD OR a reunification of the SP under his leadership, ideally both.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 07:55:09 AM
New UP ABP-CSDS Poll which took place right after the SP drama over the weekend.

()

SP         30%    146
BJP        27%    134
BSP       22%     98
INC        8%      16
Others   13%      9

This is without a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  It seems that  Akhilesh Yadav gambit has worked so far although part of it might be blowback on demonization.  



Only support on who should be CM it is

Akhilesh Yadav                28%
Mayawaiti                        21%
Mulayam Singh Yadav       3%

Here the lack of a CM candidate will hurt BJP if the election become a "Presidential" style election.  BJP needs to balance its Upper Caste and OBC factions ergo it could not project a CM candidate.



On Akhilesh Yadav  vs Modi
()

Akhilesh Yadav seems a bit more popular than even Modi 34-32



On support on who should lead SP
()

Akhilesh Yadav is way ahead.  Mulayam Singh Yadav should really read the writing on the wall.



On support by community
()
()

SP still retains most of Muslim and Yadav votes although some are going to BSP.    SP needs to win back those votes to have a chance to defeat BJP.  SP does seem to be making some inroads into Upper Caste votes.  Mayawati is a Jadav Dalit.  BSP has alway been the strongest among the Jadav Dailt which is the highest Dalit group.  The lower Dalits are for BSP but less strongly so.  



If SP splits into Mulayam Singh Yadav  and Akhilesh Yadav factions who run separately then it is
()

BJP                                   163
BSP                                  115
SP(Akhilesh Yadav)             87
INC                                    17
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)  12

BJP winning but without a majority.  Although in such a case I think it will be SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD in an alliance.  I suspect that based on this poll in such a case it would be something like

SP(Akhilesh Yadav)-INC-RLD          160
BJP                                               145
BSP                                                85
SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav)               10


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 08:04:48 AM
There seems to be a battle within UP INC on whether to ally SP once the dust settles on the SP civil war.  Rahul Gandhi seems to be for an alliance given his good relationship with Akhilesh Yadav.  The local UP INC leadership seems much more negative.  This seems to be because the head of the UP INC committee Raj Babbar himself used to be a SP heavyweight before a falling out with the Yadav clan in 2006 when he  joined INC.  He even beat  Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav in a by-election in 2009.  It seems most of the INC MLAs are for the alliance.  Also the INC CM candidates for UP Sheila Diksh**t who is the former CM of New Delhi also just came out for an alliance with SP saying that Akhilesh Yadav is a better CM candidate than herself and she would be glad to step aside to make way for a SP-INC-RLD alliance.  I suspect Raj Babbar will not be able to block this alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 08:14:30 AM


Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

Well, my statement was more under the assumption that the Modi regime has a real vision of neoliberal economic reform which I do not think he really has so the entire statement should be seen as counterfactual.  The Modi agenda has been blocked/delayed in the Rajya Sabha by non-NDA forces although Modi should take a major part of the blame with the way he tried to ram through his changes without negotiation.  Modi trying to topple various local INC  administrations makes it less likely that UPA will cooperate.  Anyway  demonization is really about projecting an image of action.  Modi promised revolutionary changes in 2014 and will be in trouble in 2019 if he is seen as not delivering.  Demonization, even if it is executed poorly, helps project the image of Modi as a man of action and I suspect that even if the economic effects are not positive, and it is not, at least on the short run, that the BJP will not be hurt much by it and in fact could gain. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 09:07:24 AM
ECI came out with election schedule

UP 7 phases
First phase: 73 constituencies, 15 districts go to polls on 11 February
Second phase: Polling date 15 February
Third phase: 69 constituencies go to polls on 19 February
Fourth phase: 53 constituencies to go to polls on 23 February
Fifth phase: 53 constituencies 27 February
Sixth Phase: 49 constituencies include 7 districts and they go to polls on 4 March
Seventh Phase: 40 constituencies to include 7 districts go to polls on 8 March

Goa 1 phase on 4 February

Punjab 1 phase on 4 February

Uttarakhand 1 phase on 15 February

Manipur 2 phases on 4 March and 8 March

Votes counted 11 March


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 11:52:36 AM
Latest Today-Axis Opinion Poll for UP shows a BJP lead with a narrow majority

()

It has

BJP      33%   206-216     211
SP       26%     92-97        94
BSP     26%     79-85        82
INC       6%       5-9           7
Others   9%      7-11          9

Caste/Community breakdown are


            Brahmin  Thakor    Yadav   Other OBC     Muslim
BJP         59           60         14         53                  4
BSP          9             9           6         15                 21
SP          14           14         67         13                 58
INC          9             6           2           7                   5
other        9           11         11         12                12

Brahmin and Thakor are large Upper Castes groups which make up 10% and 8% of UP population which together is pretty much all of the Upper Castes..  Yadavs are another 8%.  Muslims are around 20% of the population and other OBC around 30%. Somehow this poll did not publish exact Dalit numbers which are another 20% of the population other than to say that BSP wins majority of Dalit votes, which is expected.

The key to BJP's lead is that according to this poll the BJP is winning the battle over SP for the non-Yadav OBCs.  For SP to reverse this they have to either with this bloc of make inroads with Upper Castes.  Most likely both.

As far as who is best for CM it has

()

It is

Akhilesh Yadav            33
Mayawati                    25
BJP's Rajnath Singh     20   (he is from the Moderate wing of the BJP)
BJK's Yogi Adityanath   18   (he is from the Hindutva wing of BJP)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 02:32:40 PM
India Today-Axis survey on Punjab has INC ahead of AAP and on the edge of majority with SAD+ far behind

INC      35%   56-62  59
AAP      29%   36-41  38
SAD+   24%   18-22  20

But ABP-CSDS survey on Punjab finds it is INC and SAD-BJP neck-to-neck

()
()

SAD+    34%  50-58  54
INC       31%   41-49  45
AAP       21%  12-18  16


One way or another AAP has lost a lot of ground from last year when polls show AAP way out in front and winning almost 100 out of 117 seats.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 02:37:56 PM
India Today-Axis survey on  Uttarakhand has BJP ahead  of INC.


BJP      45%   41-46   44
INC     33%   19-23   21
Others 22%    2-6       5

Note that INC might end up forming an alliance with PDF (which includes BSP, UKD and 3 pro-INC independents.)  If so that might change some of the equations of the elections in INC's favor.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on January 04, 2017, 03:07:02 PM


Well, I can take the opposite position that as someone that would back Modi's professed neo-liberal policies if he really believed in it (which I do not believe he does ergo my non-support for BJP) that if NDA could get a majority in the Rajya Sabha then a neo-liberal NDA agenda can be passed and implemented without having to resort to non-conventional strategies like demonetization. 

That is not true & you know it. Let's not not give a political spin. He ordered a disastrous demonetization on his own without consulting people something which was planned by a fundamental right wing think-tank for a decade who had pitched this to Modi for years.

Besides the opposition has been incredibly supportive - Insurance Bill, Coal Auction, GST etc - BJP used to be like the Republicans opposing everything.

He is incredibly authoritarian, makes cheap attacks @ people & doesn't want to work with people ( & to be honest there are few high quality right wing people). It is better for him to not have Super-majority (although the Upper house has no powers except constitutional amendment, Budgets are passed by lower house controlled by BJP) so that he can become a mini-dictator!

Well, my statement was more under the assumption that the Modi regime has a real vision of neoliberal economic reform which I do not think he really has so the entire statement should be seen as counterfactual.  The Modi agenda has been blocked/delayed in the Rajya Sabha by non-NDA forces although Modi should take a major part of the blame with the way he tried to ram through his changes without negotiation.  Modi trying to topple various local INC  administrations makes it less likely that UPA will cooperate.  Anyway  demonization is really about projecting an image of action.  Modi promised revolutionary changes in 2014 and will be in trouble in 2019 if he is seen as not delivering.  Demonization, even if it is executed poorly, helps project the image of Modi as a man of action and I suspect that even if the economic effects are not positive, and it is not, at least on the short run, that the BJP will not be hurt much by it and in fact could gain. 

Again the Upper house can't do anything because Modi controls both Lower House & PM office. And Upper house has no jurisdiction over budget & financial matters. Upper House has almost no power except in constitutional amendment which is VERY VERY rare.

Demonetization is a disaster, you can't do anything for the sake of it - People were rationed money - Most small business came to a close, daily workers went hungry, people died & almost the entire money came back into the system from what I heard proving it a failure.

Based on the exit poll, I think the current government could sail through if they solve the feud & form an alliance with INC as the extra Voting % will give decisive victories in many marginal seats. Also, there's a huge fall in votes of the BJP as per your data from national polls.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 03:29:07 PM
Indians Said to Deposit 97% of Notes Banned to Curb Graft

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indians-deposit-97-of-notes-banned-to-curb-graft-reports/articleshow/56336107.cms

If this is true then this entire demonetisation would have been a huge fiasco.   The whole point was that a good chunk of the 500 and 1000 notes were black money which would have to be destroyed since they cannot be deposited without getting the tax authorities involved.  Now it seems 97% of all such bills have been deposited by the 12/30 deadline.  Of course it could be that the tax authorities still has to review the deposits and then go after the black money.  But unless there is a large chunk of them this entire exercise was for nothing.  Of course a lot of these deposits are fraudulent in the sense that they might be deposited by non-black money people who are depositing them for a fee.  If so all this did was a transfer of wealth from one section of the economy (those involved in large black economic sector to a large number of regular joes that are being paid to deposit the money.)

Again, even if this is true I think the impact the BJP would be limited although clearly negative.  Modi/BJP still own the image/message of "we are trying to do something, anything to try to change the system."


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on January 04, 2017, 05:43:34 PM
i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.

Yes, the fall for INC from 2009-now is quite large and mostly to the benefit of the BJP.  But we should not overstate it.  INC and BJP always overperform in LS elections while BSP and SP always overperform in Assembly elections.   This makes sense since INC and BJP are national parties while BSP and SP are UP regional parties (in de facto terms.) So when INC+ gets 19% in the 2009 LS election it was always not realistic to expect it to win 19% in an  UP assembly election.  In 2002 and 2007 INC only got around 9% in UP Assembly elections.  Now it is polling around 6%-8% which is bad but not that terrible relative to 2002 and 2007.  Remember in 1998 LS election during the INC nadir it only won ~6% of the vote.  Taken in that context INC is weaker than it ever was since 1999 but is still a bit better than 1998.

But the macro story is that since 2013 BJP has taken over as the natural party of governance in India and natural party to maintain national unity from INC.  INC has to either reverse this or  become a large regional party in several states with alliance with other regional forces to counter BJP, a role BJP played in the 1990s against INC.

why do the BJP and INC not do so well in state wide elections as national election but the tories and labour in uk tend to do well in both(except Scotland of course)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017 - UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, HP, Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 05:59:31 PM
why do the BJP and INC not do so well in state wide elections as national election but the tories and labour in uk tend to do well in both(except Scotland of course)

Because there are at lot of regional parties in India so when the Indian voter votes for Lok Shaba elections they are thinking about which party to vote for to get a stable majority or at least a stable ruling bloc.  That really means INC or BJP for a lot of people.  For regional elections the focus is a lot lower since voting for a regional party can lead to a stable ruling bloc at the local level.

BTW, I would argue that in Uk the same thing takes place.  If you look at UK council elections there are a lot of independents and various Residents' Association getting elected as councillors even while very little independents or such  Residents' Association  gets elected for MP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2017, 07:52:01 PM
Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: FredLindq on January 05, 2017, 03:42:15 AM
Interesting split in the UP SP. But what will happen with SP elsewhere? And what happened with the merger off SP, JD (U), JD (S), RJD, BJD, INLD etc. ???


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 08:10:02 AM
Interesting split in the UP SP. But what will happen with SP elsewhere? And what happened with the merger off SP, JD (U), JD (S), RJD, BJD, INLD etc. ???

SP is pretty weak outside of UP other than a small presence in Uttarakhand.  The Uttarakhand unit of SP has been pushing for Dimple Yadav, wife of Akhilesh Yadav and SP MP, to lead the campaign in Uttarakhand since her family was originally from what is now Uttarakhand.  So it is clear that the Uttarakhand branch of SP also backs Akhilesh Yadav.

The proposed merger of the various JD parties (SP JD(U) JD(S) INLD RJD and SJP) (not BJD, they never signed up for this) went nowhere and was pretty much dead when Mulayam Singh Yadav took SP out of the Bihar Grand Alliance in 2015 which served him ill anyway as SP got nowhere in the Bihar 2015 elections and the Grand Alliance won a landslide without SP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 09:00:44 AM
ECI is asking both SP factions to submit “signed affidavits” of SP MLAs by Jan 9th so ECI can get a sense on the relative strength of the two factions within the SP caucus.  If so and with 200+ SP MLAs backing Akhilesh Yadav this is a battle that the Akhilesh Yadav will easily win. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 11:58:03 AM
The last large state to have elections in early 2017 is Punjab.  The history of Punjab is quite interesting.  First we have British Punjab which was huge

()

But was split both in terms of religion (there are Muslims Hindu and ShKh areas) and language (there are Hindi and Punjabi areas) which overlap each other.  

()

()

()

In 1947 during the India-Pakistan partition Punjab was divided between India and Pakistan.  

()


Within India Punjab HP was split out right away as an union territory (becoming a state in 1971.)   Punjab then was what is Punjab and Haryana today.  SAD which was the party of the Sikhs pushed for a partition of Punjab into what is now Punjab and Haryana in 1967 so there can be a Punjabi speaking state which also happens to have a Sikh majority.  The Sikh majority part was a feature and not a bug since SAD sought to create a state it as THE Sikh party could dominate.  Punjab and Haryana share Chandigarh (which is a union territory) as its capital.

This leaves us with this as Punjab which is is all Punjabi speaking but still has Sikh and Hindu areas
()

Sikhism in theory has no caste but in reality Hindu converts to Sikhism took their caste identifies with them.  SAD is dominated by the landowning and farming Sikh Jats and claims to be the party of the Sikhs.   Punjab also has a high concentration of Dalits (around 30% of the population) of which there are Sikh and Hindu Dalits.  BJS which is proto-BJP was strong in the Hindu part of Punjab especially in a state where Hindus are the minority.  

In the 1960s and 1970s Punjab politics revolve around INC vs SAD in Sikh areas and INC vs BJS in Hindu areas.  The power of INC helped to create anti-INC alliances including SAD BJP as well as CPM and CPI and lead to some short lived SAD led United Front governments.  The attack on the Golden Temple, assassination of Indira Gandhi, and anti-Sikh riots led to greater militancy on the Sikh side leading to the creation of the radical pro-independence SAD(M) splinter in the 1980s.  BSP which appealed to the large Dalit population also grew in the 1980s are INC declined.  By the late 1980s Punjab was in virtual civil war with direct central government control and SAD pretty much boycotted LS and Assembly elections of 1992 which brought in a INC government.  The INC government, even though it lacked a real mandate actually managed to pacify the pro-independence Sikh insurrection to the point where things were normal by 1995.  At the same time the radical SAD(M) declined and the moderate SAD gained ground.  

So the best way to go over recent Punjab election history would be to start with 1996 LS election since that is the first real election after the end of the Punjab insurrection.  The history of Punjab elections after 1996 is really about the opposites SAD (party of moderate Sikh nationalism) and BJP (party of Hindu nationalism) teaming up to take on INC which has strength in both Sikh and Hindu areas.  Both INC and SAD as large number of rebels and SAD as a bunch of splinters which often affect their performance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:07:00 PM
Punjab 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                 40.33%  (BSP and JD was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       7                 0                   3.85%

INC           13                2                  35.10%   

INC rebel                       0                   2.74%

BJP             6                0                    6.48%

CPM+         6                0                    4.29%

SAD allied with BSP and since INC has the trouble of double incumbency at the national and regional level was able to defeat INC.  The 1996 LS election threw up a hung parliament with BJP being the largest party.  Seeing a chance to resume the 1970s alliance between SAD and BJS to its benefit in the next Punjab assembly election in 1997, SAD backed BJP to form a short lived government at the center.    But this formed the basis of a SAD-BJP alliance for the 1997 Punjab assembly election, dumping BSP along the way.  In response INC roped in CPI while BSP joined SAD(M).   Given the long INC rule in Punjab the result in 1997 was a return to power by SAD.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on January 05, 2017, 12:07:27 PM
Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

Based on your Exit poll data, the INC looks quite weak & gets too few seats. While the other 30 is okay & would consolidate seats of smaller parties giving a decisive edge in marginal seats, 100 seats will be a waste for INC.

If the SP led faction wants to come to power, then I think INC should fight 60-70 at best & SP fight atleast over 300 seats.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:12:36 PM
Punjab 1997 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               94                 46.80%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       2                   3.15%

INC+        117              16                 29.94% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       3                    3.67%

BSP+        96                 2                 10.58% (SAD(M) was part of BSP+)

CPM+        52                0                    2.34% (JD was part of CPM+)

()

As expected SAD was was turned to power with BJP as its junior partner.  In 1998 a mid-term LS election was called was the United Front government there fell.   This time INC decided to bring in BSP to try to counter SAD-BJP but to no avail since SAD was in the middle of its honeymoon period.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:15:15 PM
Anonymous INC sources in UP indicates that a SP Akhilesh Yadav faction - INC talks has resulted in a basic framework for an SP-INC alliance.  It will be INC getting around 100 seats and (RLD, JD(U), AD Krishna Patel faction) will get around 30 seats with around 275 going to SP.  Akhilesh Yadav will be projected as the CM candidate for this alliance and there will be joint campaign for this alliance.  If so it will be a SP-INC-RLD-AD(Krishna Patel)-JD(U) alliance which should lock up the Muslim votes, might lose some Yadav votes depending on how strong SP Mulayam Singh Yadav faction is and quiet competitive with Upper Caste and higher OBC votes.   

Based on your Exit poll data, the INC looks quite weak & gets too few seats. While the other 30 is okay & would consolidate seats of smaller parties giving a decisive edge in marginal seats, 100 seats will be a waste for INC.

If the SP led faction wants to come to power, then I think INC should fight 60-70 at best & SP fight atleast over 300 seats.

Yes, but INC could correctly counter argue that it has 6%-7% vote support in UP and if that can be transferred to its alliance partner (a very big IF) then in a state like UP where it is split 3- and 4- ways 30%-35% of the vote would be enough for a majority an extra 6%-7% vote share is very valuable and INC should be paid for this value.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:21:57 PM
Punjab 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        12               12                 48.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD(M)       4                 0                   2.73%

INC+         13                0                  41.89%  (BSP and CPI were part of INC+)

CPM+         4                1                    5.24%

The sitting UF PM, Inder Kumar Gujral of JD decided to contest in Punjab and out of respect SAD+ did not contest and aided him to defeat the INC candidate.  The INC grand alliance of INC-BSP-CPI failed to defeat SAD+ at the peak of its popularity and a NDA government was installed at the center.  It did not last after AIADMK pulled out of NDA and another LS election was called in 1999.  This time around INC+ had the upper hand since enough time has passed for anti-incumbency to weigh down the SAD+ government in Punjab.  Worse for SAD was the creation of SAD splinter SHSAD which allied with BSP.  At the same time CPM decided to jump abroad the INC+ train to oppose BJP.  The result was an INC+ victory.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:28:31 PM
Punjab 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                3                 40.46%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SHSAD+    12                1                 12.34% (BSP and SAD(M) were part of SHSAD+)

INC+         13                9                 44.36%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

INC+ won in Punjab in a polarized election but NDA won overall in India. The next battle is the 2002 Punjab assembly election where SAD was clearly in trouble given the 1999 LS election result.  Both INC and SAD were fighting massive rebellions in their respective parties as SAD splinter LBP was formed.  INC+ managed to eak out a win mostly by beating BJP in Hindu areas even as SAD managed to maintain its seat share in the Sikh areas.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:34:23 PM
Punjab 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               44                 37.09%  (BJP and BSP splinter DBSM were part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       4                   3.50%
LBP           38                 0                   1.17%  (LBP was a SAD splinter)                    

SAD(M)      84                0                   4.65%  (SAD spliter SHSAD ran under the SAD(M) symbol)

INC+        117             64                  38.33% (CPI was part of INC+)  

INC rebel                       5                    4.77%
NCP           39                0                    0.90% (NCP was a INC splinter at the national level)

BSP         100                0                    5.69%  

()
 
INC+ came back into power with a smaller than expected margin.  It was mostly done in by INC rebels in Sikh areas which allowed SAD to win a bunch of unexpected seats.  After this election SHSAD returned to SAD which strengthened SAD and as anti-incumbency weight down on the INC government the 2004 LS election would produce a SAD+ victory.  


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 12:43:38 PM
Punjab 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13               11                44.76%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
SAD(M)+     7                0                  5.63%  (SAD splinter LBP was part of SAD(M)+)

INC+         13                2                 38.53%  (CPI and CPM were part of INC+)

BSP           13                0                  7.67%

At the national level UPA actually won an unexpected victory despite the INC+ defeat in Punjab.  Of course this election bods ill for the INC+ Punjab government when it comes up for re-election in 2007.  Worse the relationship between INC and CPI/CPM has declined since UPA came into power at the national level which meant INC and CPI/CPM has lost a common enemy.  As a result INC will contest in 2007 with an alliance with CPI.  The result was a SAD+ victory although most of the SAD+ gains were in the Hindu areas where BJP gained versus INC. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 03:17:54 PM
Punjab 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       116               67                 45.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       1                   1.11%
        
SAD(M)      37                0                   0.52%  

INC           116             44                  40.90%  

INC rebel                       4                    3.03%
 
BSP         115                0                    4.13%

CPI+         48                0                    1.36%  (SAD splinter LBP and CPM was part of CPI+) 

()

SAD+ came back to power as expected.  Even more positive for SAD is the SAD(M) was catastrophic and this election is the death nail of the radical SAD(M) faction which in the future could no longer dog SAD on the Sikh nationalism flank.  BSP's decline continued which helped INC but it was not enough.  Just like in 2004 when the 2009 LS election arrived anti-incumbency began to weigh in on SAD and INC was expected to do well in the 2009 LS election despite the fact that INC relationship with CPM/CPI worsened over the US nuclear deal since CPI/CPM themselves have declined in Punjab to be very trivial players.  The result was an edge for INC+ but not SAD+ kept it close from a vote share point of view.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 03:23:02 PM
Punjab 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                 5                43.92%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
LBP+          6                 0                  1.48%  (CPI and CPM were part of LBP+ which is SAD splinter)

INC           13                8                 45.23%  

BSP           13                0                  5.75%

()

INC held a edge but the victory was not decisive even as UPA did well at the national level.  LBP itself merged back into SAD after the election.  But SAD also suffered another split with SAD splinter PPP being formed which looped in CPI and CPM as allies.  The track record of the incumbant being ousted from power plus the PPP split seems to indicate that INC will win in 2012 assembly election.  The result was a complete surprise where SAD+ came back to power.  What took place was in Sikh areas PPP actually took away anti-SAD votes and swung seats from INC to SAD while INC did make gains against BJP in Hindu areas.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 05:31:11 PM
Punjab 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+       117               68                 45.37%  (BJP was part of SAD+)

SAD rebel                       0                   1.22%
proto-LIF     2                 2                   0.72%  (this is the Bains Brothers)        

PPP+        115                0                   6.14% (CPM and CPI were part of PPP+)

INC           117             46                  40.90%  

INC rebel                       1                    2.21%
 
BSP         117                0                    4.29%

()

In a surprise SAD+ was returned to power as PPP ending up hurting INC more than SAD.  The Bains brothers who has been associated with SAD in the past and are powerful kingpins in the Ludhiana area also pushed their way into the assembly.  They recently formed LIF and allied themselves with AAP so I call them proto-LIF.  After this election PPP allied with INC and backed INC in the 2014 LS election.  With SAD saddled with two term anti-incumbency one would think INC will do well in Punjab in the 2014 LS election.  They ended up not doing well due to the rise of AAP in Punjab which took the anti-SAD+ votes.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 05:36:02 PM
Punjab 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

SAD+        13                 6                35.14%  (BJP was part of SAD+)
 
proto-LIF     1                 0                  1.53%  (this is the Bains Brothers)

INC           13                3                 33.19%  

AAP           13                4                 24.47%

BSP           13                0                  1.91%

()

It became a 3 way fight with a slight edge for SAD+.  BSP is hitting rock due to the rise of AAP.  As the 2017 Punjab Assembly election approaches it seems for a while that it will be a AAP landslide.  Then both SAD+ and INC steadied themselves.   PPP merged into INC while a more even split between the anti-SAD+ vote gave the SAD+ a better chance to fight two term anti-incumbency.   The Bains Brothers formed LIF and will be allied with AAP.  Polls seems to show a even 3 way race between the 3 blocs now.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 05, 2017, 05:54:37 PM
As expected Akhilesh Yadav is winning the war of affidavits.  SP has 229 MLA 64 MLCs (UP state Upper House members elected by various local/village assemblies) 5 LS MP and 19 RS MPs.  It seems Akhilesh Yadav has affidavits of 4 LS MPs (the 5th one is Mulayam Singh Yadav and one of the other 4 is his own wife Dimple Yadav and the other 3 are all members of the Yadav clan so it seems even within the Yadav Clan Akhilesh Yadav has majority support), most of the 19 RS MPs, 200+ of MLAs and 54 MLCs.   One of the MLAs backing Akhilesh Yadav is actually ex-QED MLA Sighbatullah Ansari.  Akhilesh Yadav was dead set against the SP-QED merger and refused to re-nominate members of the Ansari clan.  It seems even the Ansari clan are going over to Akhilesh Yadav just to hope that they get nominated.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2017, 09:32:59 AM
India Today Axix poll as BJP ahead in Goa.  

BJP          20-24           21  (flat from 2012)
INC         13-15           14 (+5 from 2012)
AAP           2-4               3 (+3 from 2012)
MGP          1-4               2 (-1 from 2012)
GVP              0               0 (-2 from 2012)

Goa had a BJP-MGP ruling coalition but then MGP had a falling out with BJP.  It seems the trend here is the national parties (BJP INC AAP) are gaining relative to the Goa regional parties (MGP GVP).


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: warandwar on January 06, 2017, 03:53:45 PM
What's AAP's base in Punjab?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 07, 2017, 12:41:25 PM

AAP is stronger in Sikh areas and weaker in Hindu areas.  One of the reasons has been the growth of narcotics consumption in Pubjab, especially in Sikh areas and both SAD and to some extent INC are seen as connected to the drug dealing cartels.  So in Sikh areas it is a 3 way battle between SAD INC and AAP while in Hindu areas it is BJP vs INC with AAP running far behind.  Because of the concentration of vote share by AAP, as long as it is a 3 way split in terms of vote shares between SAD+ INC and AAP, I think AAP will outperform in terms of seats relative to its vote share. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 11, 2017, 09:38:27 PM
ECI will make a decision on SP election symbol Friday.   One way or another right after that SP (Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC-RLD-JD(U) will be alliance will most likely be announced.  There are still talks between the Akhilesh Yadav faction and Mulayam Singh Yadav factions.  The Akhilesh Yadav faction position is that Akhilesh Yadav must remain SP Preisdent until after the elections to ensure that SP does well after which Akhilesh Yadav will hand the SP Presidency back to  Mulayam Singh Yadav.    The  Mulayam Singh Yadav  faction insist that  Mulayam Singh Yadav gets back the SP presidency and that Akhilesh Yadav will be allowed to select SP candidates and SP will project Akhilesh Yadav as SP CM candidate.  Right now there is a deadlock I guess a resolution, if any, might take place after ECI makes a call after Friday.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 11, 2017, 09:52:30 PM
We also have Goa

()

Which is an ex-Portugal colony but revented back to India in 1961.

Regardless of what the polls says I feel that INC should have advantage over BJP in Goa.  BJP won in 2012 in Goa based on a grand alliance of BJP, Goa regional party MAG, GVP (NCP splinter) and several pro-BJP independents.  This front defeated the incumbent INC-NCP alliance which suffered from massive rebellion.

2012 Goa Assembly elections
                      
                          Contest           Win             Vote Share
BJP+                        40              28                 48.50%
 BJP                         28              21                 34.68%
 MAG                         6                3                    6.69%
 GVP                          2                2                   2.59%
 Ind.                          4                2                   4.54%

BJP rebel                   3                0                    1.52%
MAG rebel                 1                0                    0.33%

INC+                      40                9                  34.86%
 INC                        33               9                   30.78%
 NCP                         7                0                     7.08%

INC rebel                10                3                     7.55%

AITC                      20                 0                    1.81%

UDGP                      7                 0                    1.17%

()

For this election BJP and MAG has a falling out with MAG joining forces with RSS (BJP's parent body) rebel created BJP splinter GSM.  SHS will also join this alliance and will split the BJP vote.  GVP has mostly splintered and imploded.  It is unclear if the rump GVP will ally with BJP with time around.  The various pro-BJP independents are also being supported by BJP this time around.   The INC rebels of 2012 has mostly formed GFP and has decided to focus on defeating BJP this election.  This time around INC is working on creating a INC-NCP-GFP alliance.  If so, this election will look more like 2007 when BJP and MAG ran separately:

2007 Goa Assembly elections
                      
                          Contest           Win             Vote Share
BJP+                        40              16                 37.94%
 BJP                          33             14                 30.32%
 SGF                          6                2                   6.29%   (SGF was an INC Christian splinter)
 Ind                           1                0                   1.33%

BJP rebel                                     0                    0.93%
SGF                         11               0                    1.51%  (SGF also ran outside of BJP+ in some areas)

MAG+                      34               3                 13.85%
 MAG                       24                2                   8.50%
 UGDP                       9                1                    4.85%
 Ind                           1               0                    0.50%

INC+                      40               20                 39.03%
 INC                        32              16                  32.25%
 NCP                         6                3                    5.02%
 Ind                          2                1                    1.75%

INC rebel                                    1                    3.37%

JD(S)                    12                  0                   1.25%

()

So overall the alliance math is working against BJP this time around who is mostly alone.  Only thing
that might help BJP is that AAP has grown in Goa and AAP might end up splitting the INC vote.

This election will be BJP+independents vs INC-NCP-GFP vs MAG-GSM-SHS vs AAP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 11, 2017, 10:27:28 PM
Uttarakhand Post poll has INC slightly ahead

()

()

Which has

INC      38.5%        36
BJP       37.1%       29
BSP        7.9%         2
Others                     3

And this does not take into account a possible INC-BSP-UKD alliance.  It does seem that BSP will go it alone but the 2 BSP MLAs might defect to INC in response.

All things equal unless INC can come up with a solid INC-BSP-UKD alliance it is the BJP that should have the upper hand here.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 13, 2017, 09:24:47 PM
It is said that once the SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC alliance is formed the star campaigners will be Akhilesh Yadav's wife Dimple Yadav and Priyanka Gandhi (daughter of Sonia Gandhi sister of Rahul Gandhi).  There are already posters going up in anticipation of this

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 14, 2017, 09:46:16 PM
ECI should make a decision about the SP symbol Sunday.  In the meantime it is said that SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction)-INC alliance has mostly been worked out. INC will most likely get around 120 out 403 seats with SP getting 283 with the understanding that INC will work to allocation out of its quota seats to other alliance partners (RLD JD(U) AD(Krishna Patel faction) AITC NCP PECP.)  If so most likely it will be SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) 283 INC 90 RLD 20 PECP 5  AD(Krishna Patel faction) 3 JD(U) 1 NCP 1 which is a pretty good deal for SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) given that the SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav) will not be part of this alliance and speaks to the star power of Akhilesh Yadav.  I guess this alliance breakdown will assume that at least SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) will get the SP symbol.  If it does not then INC will be able to legitimately demand that INC itself should get around 150 seats plus more for other alliance partners since SP(Akhilesh Yadav faction) will have to contest on an unknown and untested election symbol.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2017, 09:01:59 AM
ECI gives Akhilesh Yadav faction the SP election symbol and pretty much recognizes SP(Akhilesh Yadav) as the real SP with Akhilesh Yadav as President.

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It is likely that the SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav faction) will merge with the defunct LKD (Lok Dal) party that Mulayam Singh Yadav help found in the 1980s before merging it with JNP in the late 1980s and run on the LKD election symbol.  Not clear how many candidates SP (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and how it will impact SP-INC-RLD alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2017, 10:48:28 AM
It seems that the BJP is in a bit of a panic over the recent turn of events.  There are already several sources that the BJP are reaching out to the BSP through back-channels to see if there can be a 4th BJP-BSP post election alliance (there were such an alliance in 1995, 1996-1997,  and 2002-2003 which all broke down) since it seems that the chances of a BJP majority is getting slimmer.

I am beginning to understand Akhilesh Yadav's strategy to counter the BJP strategy. 

What the BJP was counting on was
a) SP weight down by the burden of incumbency with the SP and BSP splitting the Muslim vote as a result
b) Both Akhilesh Yadav of SP and Mayawati of BSP does not have that great of an image so the election will be a localized battle at the district battle.
c) Demonetization would mean that the BJP will still be flush with resources from corporate donations while SP and BSP which rely in small cash based business would lack the resources to match the BJP at the ground game
d) BJP cannot project a CM candidate for fear of conflict between the Upper Caste and OBC factions so turn the election based on targeted candidates and social coalitions to counter splintered social coalitions of SP BSP and INC at each district where the BJP ground game would be critical.

Akhilesh Yadav decided to counter this with a Trump like asymmetrical warfare  strategy.  By having a public split and battle for control of his party, he creates free publicity for himself and at the same time dump the anti-incumbency anger toward his father Mulayam Singh Yadav.  Last minute alliances with INC RLD also knocks the BJP social coalition calculations off as well as consolidating the Muslim vote.  The same alliance can unleash Priyanka Gandhi and Dimple Yadav  along with himself to turn the election into an election of personalities and away from the ground game that the BJP clearly have an advantage in.   

It is not clear what damage the SP(Mulayam Singh Yadav faction) will do but it seems that a BJP majority now does not see at all assured and most likely we are headed to a hung assembly election result if SP-INC-RLD alliance can be put together. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 16, 2017, 04:16:36 PM
As soon as the ECI ruled in favor of Akhilesh Yadav, he went on a mode to try to reunify SP behind him.  Right away visited his father and antagonist Mulayam Singh Yadav to seek his blessings for he battle he is about to lead SP into and tweeted out a picture of that meeting

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It is not clear what Mulayam Singh Yadav is up to or if he will still run candidates against his son's SP.  He seems to be playing two roles, one as antagonist of Akhilesh Yadav and one as father of Akhilesh Yadav.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2017, 08:09:25 AM
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Map of 7 phases of voting for UP


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2017, 08:13:52 AM
TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll had a vote share poll back in early Jan based on a SP split by Mulayam Singh Yadav with comparison to vote share of Dec 2016

                               Dec 2016             Jan 2016
BJP                              29.4                   30.2
SP                               28.7                   24.9
BSP                             23.4                   24.2
INC                               5.0                    5.8
SP (Mulayam)                                         3.4

Of course this does not take into account of a possible SP-INC alliance.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2017, 08:17:04 AM
Also in early Jan VDPAssociates had an UP poll which had BJP+ with slight advantage but no majority

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Which is
                 Vote share     Seats
BJP+           33%            165
SP               31%            149
BSP             23%              76
INC              4%                 4

With regional breakdown

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The same poll also looked at what would take place if SP-INC formed an alliance.  And it had

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Which is

                 Vote share     Seats
BJP+           35%            170
SP-INC        34%            160
BSP             22%              64
 
It seems some Dalit votes would go from BSP to BJP+ in response to SP-INC alliance.  I am surprised that BSP would only lose 12 seats in such a scenario.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2017, 11:04:12 AM
Early Jan VDPAssociates poll on Uttarakhand shows a landslide for BJP

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Which is
               
             Vote Share     Seats
BJP             44%           50
INC            34%           15
BSP              7%            2
Others       15%            3

INC might still come up with an alliance UKD and other pro-INC independents.  If they do pull that off they might avoid a landslide of this scale.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2017, 11:08:58 AM
Early Jan VDPAssociates poll on Goa shows BJP close to majority

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Which is
                   
              Vote share              Seats
BJP               38%                   20
INC              29%                   11
AAP                9%                    3
MGP+             7%             }
GFP                6%             }      6
Others          11%             }

It seems that MGP+ is, as expected, taking votes away from BJP while AAP seems to to taking votes from INC.  Note that it is still possible for INC to form an alliance with NCP (which is under Others right now) and GFP.  If they do then it will become neck-to-neck between BJP and INC+.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 18, 2017, 07:31:43 AM
In UP, it seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav has mostly given up and accepted that Akhilesh Yadav has taken over SP.  He gave a list of 38 candidates to Akhilesh Yadav asking that they be accommodated by on the SP list and in return he will agree to campaign for SP and not run his separate slate of candidates. 

This is taking place in the nick of time because the next phase for Akhilesh Yadav is to lock down the Grand alliance.  Based on rumors this alliance will be quite large.  It will include INC and RLD of course, but also it will, based on rumors, include AD(Krishna Patel faction), PECP, JD(U), RLD. AITC, NCP, and NP (which is a OBC caste based party.)  Of course  JD(U), RLD. AITC, NCP, and NP have influence in UP in tiny pockets and each will be given 1 or 2 seats.  To accommodate all these parties SP will have to give up at least 125 out of 403 seats (90 for INC, 20 for RLD, 15 for rest.)  There will be blowback within SP so making sure SP rebels does have Mulayam Singh Yadav is critical.  Also doing this alliance last minute causes problems but makes sure that SP INC and RLD rebels cannot run to BJP or BSP since both those parties has mostly locked down their candidate lists and could only run as independents.

The BJP is clearly rattled by these developments and many BJP leaders privately concede that SP will most likely emerge as the largest party after the election and that a BJP majority now seems unlikely.  It also came out that late last week the BJP, seeing the Grand Alliance about to take shape,  tried to lure RLD to join the BJP alliance and was turned down by RLD.  Sensing weakness, BJP ally AD and SBSP are both racketing up their demands of seats from BJP.  SBSP in fact is entering into talks with SP to add pressure on BJP.   

If Akhilesh Yadav can pull of this Grand Alliance with minimal rebellion and then go on to win the UP elections then he would have pulled off a startling political comeback from Oct 2016.  In late 2016 he was seen as a weak puppet CM as party of a party that will crash to third place with BJP and BSP fighting for power.  Now in a matter of 3 weeks through his political stratagems he is about to pull off something that was not been done in 1985 in UP assembly politics, win re-election. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 18, 2017, 07:38:42 AM
It seems in Goa due to factional battles INC failed to have an alliance with NCP and will have some tactical understanding GFP in some seats.  Failure to lock up an INC-NCP-GFP means that BJP will have a slight edge over INC despite MAG-GSM-SHS running on its own since AAP and NCP will also eat into the INC base. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 18, 2017, 08:30:58 AM
Articles like

"Why BJP Loss Would Be Only Surprise Of 2017 UP Poll"

http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/why-bjp-loss-would-be-only-surprise-of-2017-up-poll-95269

are claiming that the BJP will for sure win the UP assembly elections given the BJP-AD performance of 2014 LS elections with 43.6% vote share means that even if SP-INC-RLD ties up they would only have 30% of the vote based on their 2014 LS election results.  It points out that it would take a massive swing for BJP to lose.  It uses Bihar as an example.  In 2014 LS elections BJP+ (BJP+LJP+RLSP) won 39.5% of the vote and won 35% in the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections in a losing effort against the JD(U)-RJD-INC Grand Alliance.  This is a swing of 4.5% which if applied to the UP results would still mean that BJP+ will win 39% of the vote and ensure a large BJP victory in UP.

The problem with this analysis it it ignores the Delhi experience.  It correctly points out that 2013 Delhi Assembly elections BJP+ won 34.2% and won 32.7% in the 2015 landslide defeat at the hands of AAP and that the BJP defeat was only because the consolidation of the anti-BJP vote and that the BJP vote base was intact.  What they do not point out is that 2014 LS election BJP won 46.6% of the vote so a 2014 to 2015 BJP+ swing was quite massive (-13.9%).

For Bihar I think the 2014 to 2015 negative swing of -4.5% for BJP+ is accurate but missed the fact that HAM split from JD(U) from 2014 to join BJP+ in 2015.  Assuming that it brought over 1%-2% vote share with them the swing against BJP+ is more like 6%-7% in Bihar.

Looking at by-elections in UP in 2014 2015 and 2016 that took place after 2014 LS elections seems to indicate the upcoming assembly elections might be more like Delhi than Bihar.  Of course Indian assembly level by-elections tend to favor the incumbant party since voters would want an MLA of the ruling party to get them the pork.  So by definition SP will do better in these by-elections all things equal.  Also BSP boycotted these elections which also gives the SP an advantage of consolidating the anti-BJP vote but should in theory artificially push up the BJP vote as well.  With that in mind looking the number of votes per party for the UP districts that had by-elections in 2014 2015 2016 and comparing them to 2012 and 2014 LS results in those districts seems to imply that the BJP is on track to do a good deal better in 2017 than 2012 but the 2014 BJP vote was a one time surge which is unlikely to be repeated.  Some example by-election results which had higher turnout (which makes them more representative and predictive) are


Saharanpur Nagar   2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (large BJP surge, some decline)
BJP                            85K       134K          108K
INC                           73K       110K            29K
BSP                           36K        15K            
SP                             20K          7K            82K
Total                        219K     269K           221K

Bijnor                     2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (large BJP surge, then bipolar polarization)
BJP                            69K       96K            90K
BSP                           51K        52K
RLD                           47K         9K
SP                             25K        68K          102K
MD                              6K
PECP                                         4K              3K
INC                                                             3K
                              209K        234K         204K

Thakurdwara          2012    2014LS    2014 by-election (tiny BJP surge, then revert to 2012)
BJP                           84K        95K            84K
MD                           47K                          13K
INC                          47K          3K             17K
BSP                         26K         28K
SP                              6K        96K          111K
PECP                                        3K
Total                      220K       231K          232K

Nighasan              2012    2014LS    2014 by-election  (tiny BJP surge which remained)
BJP                         75K        85K            84K
SP                          44K        33K          103K
BSP                        36K        42K
INC                        16K        35K              7K
PECP                        9K
MD                           7K
CPI                                        4K
Total                    206K      203K         200K

Balha                  2012    2014LS    2014 by-election  (significant BJP surge, some dropoff)
BJP                       59K       85K              74K
BSP                      39K        28K
SP                        35K        61K             99K
INC                      21K          7K               6K
SBSP                                                       3K
JHSP                                   3K
Total                   177K      190K          186K

Charkhari           2012    2014LS    2014 by-election   2015 by-election (BJP surge and decline)
BJP                       67K       82K              39K                         41K    
SP                        41K       36K               95K                         82K
BSP                      41K       42K
INC                      22K       21K              44K                          37K
SP rebel                                                  9K
Total                  192K      193K            193K                       168K

Pharenda            2012    2014LS    2015 by-election  (BJP surge and then decline)
BJP                       48K       71K              41K
INC                       35K       16K             56K
BSP                      34K       44K
SP                        26K       36K              65K
PECP                    23K
Total                   182K      181K           172K

Of course we had a few 2016 by-elections where turnout fell but the BJP total vote experience wild swings mostly due to elections taking place in areas of Jat-Muslim communal riots in 2013 leading to a massive Jat and OBC consolidation for BJP in 2014 followed by decline of BJP in some places

Muzaffar Nagar      2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (huge BJP surge followed by decline)
SP                           59K       14K             58K
BJP                          44K     129K             65K
BSP                         32K       64K
INC                         21K         5K             11K
PECP                         7K         2K              
RLD                                                        15K
Total                      169K     215K          155K

Deoband               2012    2014LS    2016 by-election  (mega BJP surge some of which survived)
SP                           67K       11K            47K
BSP                         64K       46K
INC                         45K       67K            51K
BJP                         10K      104K            46K
BMK                                                       17K  (BMK is a Dalit based party and won BSP votes)
Total                      196K     232K          169K

Bikapur                 2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (tidal wave BJP surge followed by collapse)
SP                          55K        36K            69K
BSP                        53K        35K    
RLD                       38K                           62K
PECP                      20K         1K               3K
BJP                         14K      104K           12K
INC                                      24K             3K
AIMIM                                                    12K
Total                    202K       208K         168K

Bilari                   2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (BJP surge followed by bipolar polarization)
SP                        56K         65K            90K
BSP                      54K         46K
BJP                      17K          77K            83K
RPD                     16K           7K
MD                      15K
PECP                   14K           2K
RLD                     11K
INC                                      2K              4K
Total                 189K       202K          182K

Jangipur            2012    2014LS    2016 by-election (BJP surge followed by bipolar polarization)
SP                       72K        59K             82K
BSP                     63K        49K
SBSP                   22K
BJP                      10K        60K            60K
INC                       8K          3K              7K
RPD                                     8K
BJP rebel                              4K
Total                 186K        191K         161K

Overall BJP surge in 2014 has fallen off in many places and are only kept up in cases where the race becomes SP vs BJP where BJP wins over some of the BSP vote.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2017, 08:38:43 AM
Looks like SP-INC alliance is on.  SP to contest 298 seats and INC 105 seats.  In the end there was too much pressure within SP to unify the  Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav factions to give up enough seats to RLD. 

What SP wanted to do was to give around 100 seats to INC and told INC it is free to allocate seats to RLD from its quota.  INC was willing to give 20 out of its quota to RLD but RLD insisted on at least 35 seats.  So a SP-INC-RLD deal feel apart.  Then after all sorts of hectic talks SP and INC agreed to 298/105.  I think SP's logic was that in Western UP where RLD is strong Muslims are still hostile to Jats given Jat-Muslims communal riots of 2013.  This time around SP was certain that Jats, which went to BJP in 2014, are repelled from BJP due to the Jat reservation issue.  So an SP alliance with RLD could lose it Muslims votes while RLD outside the alliance will not ally with BJP nor will the Jat vote go BJP.  So SP fancy its chances in Western UP where it will be SP-INC (Yadav Muslims and some OBCs) vs BJP (Upper Castes and some OBCs) vs RLD (Jats) vs BSP (Dalits) or at least feel that neither BJP nor RLD will sweep the field.

I guess there are still chances that SP and INC will give up a few seats from their respective quotas to accommodate various minor parties like RJD JD(U) AD(Krishna Patel faction) PECP AITC NCP NP etc etc.  Most likely JD(U) will ally with RLD so they will be out. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2017, 08:48:34 AM
In Uttarakhand, long time but disgraced (due to various sex scandals last few years) INC leader ND Tiwari aged 91 has joined BJP to secure a ticket for his son

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ND Tiwari who is a key INC Brahmin leader was INC CM of UP 3 times in the 1970s and 1980s.  He was also CM of Uttarakhand in 2002-2007.  So with ND Tiwari joining BJP and former INC Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna (whose father was also a INC UP CM back in the 1970s) joining BJP during the 2016 Uttarakhand Constitutional crisis every CM in Uttarakhand's history is now in BJP except for the incumbent INC CM Harish Rawat.  

The BJP strategy in Uttarakhand this year, which is the same as UP,  not project a CM candidate due to factional conflict and to recruit/poach local leaders from other parties (from INC in Uttarakhand, and from BSP SP and INC in UP) to try to win a localized race.   At least 20 out of the 70 BJP candidates in Uttarakhand are, until fairly recently, members of INC.  The running joke is that that  Uttarakhand BJP should be renamed "Modi's INC."  This strategy is most likely to work in  Uttarakhand  where the INC CM candidate Harish Rawat does not seem to have dynamic or mass appeal but will not work as well in UP given the Akhilesh Yadav factor which will tend to make the election in UP less localized.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 22, 2017, 02:09:03 PM
In the Rahul Gandhi's pocket borough of Amethi we are most likely to  see a battle of "Wife vs Wife."  
Everything centers around one Sanjay Singh who is from the Amethi royal family and is known as "Raja of Amethi."  

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Sanjay Singh was in the INC in the 1970s and 1980s and was quite close to the Gandhi clan.  When his relative and former INC UP CM VP Singh bolted from INC and formed JD he defected to JD and was a member of the VP Singh JD cabinet.  He then defected to BJP and won from Amethi in the 1998 LS election.  He even ran against Sonia Gandhi on the BJP ticket in 1999 in a losing effort.    Later he defected back to the INC and became a key member of the INC team in UP.  He is currently an INC MP in the RS.

Sanjay Singh is married to one Garima Singh

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But back in 1988 Sanjay Singh was implicated in the murder of his good friend and famous badminton player Syed Modi.  It seems that Sanjay Singh was having an affair with Syed Modi's wife Amita Kulkarni and both of them plotted to murder Syed Modi.  

Picture of Sanjay Singh with Amita Kulkarni.
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In the end Sanjay Singh and Amita Kulkarni were acquitted of murder charges after years of investigations and trials.  

Sanjay Singh then proceeded divorce his current wife Garima Singh and married Amita Kulkarni.   Garima Singh claims that the divorce was not final and claims that Sanjay Singh's marriage to Amita Kulkarni is null and void.  Sanjay Singh and then tried to get the courts to throw Garima Singh and their children out of the palace he lives in.

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And is an ongoing court case.  

Anyway.  It seems that Garima Singh has joined BJP who will field her in the Amethi seats.  Amita Kulkarni as Sanjay Singh's de facto wife won in Amethi in 2002 running for BJP and won in 2007 running for INC.  She ran as INC candidate in 2012 and lost to SP.   SP-INC alliance will most likely grant Amethi to INC who will most likely field Amita Kulkarni.  So the election will be "Wife vs Wife."


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 26, 2017, 09:16:05 PM
THE WEEK-Hansa Research poll has hung assemblies for UP Punjab and Goa with slight BJP majority in  Uttarakhand

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In UP it has

BJP         37%      194  
SP-INC    33%     180
BSP         22%       22
Others      8%         7

Here it seems to predict the collapse of BSP Muslim base to INC-SP and the Non-Jadav Dalits to BJP.  If this were come to pass the BJP will form the majority by breaking BSP where at least 15 out of 22 MLAs (way more than the 1/3 threshold to trigger the ant-defection law)  will defect to BJP to get ministries.

In Punjab it has

INC            36%  50
AAP            32%  34
SAD-BJP     28%  29
Others         4%    4

If this were come to pass most likely another election is necessary where it will become INC vs AAP.


In Uttarakhand it has

BJP           54%     38
INC          40%     28
BSP            3%      2
Others        3%      2

For a slight BJP majority which would be consistent with narrow  Uttarakhand  majorities in 2002 2007 and 2012.  Of course if the BJP vote share lead over INC is 54%-40% there is no way INC can win 28 seats.  Something wrong with this poll.  I think it is a typo and the BJP vote share is 44% and not 54%


In Goa it has

BJP                    43%   18
INC                    31%   12
MGP-GSM-SHS     9%     4
AAP                   10%     3
Independents      4%     1
Others                 3%     2

If so BJP will form a majority by buying off some cluster of independents and others.   Again, if BJP leads INC 43% to 31% there is no way INC wins 12 seats.  For a BJP seat lead over INC of 18-12 the vote share lead should be around 4%-5% and not 12%.  Something wrong with this poll.


The results in UP does not seem too badly off although I think it underestimates BSP, as most UP polls usually under-poll BSP especially when they are relegated to third place.  My sense is this poll overestimates the incumbent parties Punjab  Uttarakhand  Goa.  I think SAD-BJP will do worse than these number in Punjab, INC do worse than these numbers in Uttarakhand and BJP might still be the largest party but do worse than these numbers in Goa.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 08:52:18 PM
TNSPIMT polls


UP

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SP+INC      201
BJP+          177
BSP             23
Others          2


Pubjab

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INC           39.8%       47
AAP           36.3%       43
SAD+BJP   23.9%       26


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 08:57:03 PM
News24 UP poll

UP

SP-INC      191
BJP            120
BSP             76
Others        16



Uttarakhand

INC             35
BJP             31
Others          4


Pubjab

SAD-BJP      52
INC             47
AAP            16


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 09:06:13 PM
ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS poll for UP

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SP-INC     35%     192
BJP          29%      123
BSP         23%        81


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 09:10:11 PM
Times Now-VMR UP survey

BJP          34%     202
SP-INC    31%     147
BSP         24%       47
Others     11%        7


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 09:13:51 PM
VDPAssociates poll

UP

()
BJP+           35.00%              207
 BJP             33.80%              207
 AP                0.70%                 0
 SBSP            0.51%                 0

SP-INC        32.00%             128
 SP              24.16%             104
 INC              7.84%               24

BSP            22.11%                58




The caste breakdown are
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Given the Jat anti-BJP agitation in Haryana  due to the reservation issue I am surprised that the BJP can win 58% of the Jat vote.  Of course if this is true then the RLD is finished.









Pubjab

()
()

AAP         35%    62
INC         33%    44
SAD-BJP  26%      7


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 09:15:53 PM
The various UP polls have some with BJP+ and others with SP-INC ahead.  The bad news for BSP is that BSP is in a far third place.  If these polls continue like this it will trigger Muslim tactical voting for SP-INC as well as some Dalit and OBC tactical voting for BJP.  It would not surprise me if both BJP+ and SP-INC to both exceed 35% in such a case.  Usually a vote share of above 30% is enough for victory.  This time that threshold might be 35% if the BSP vote does not hold up.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2017, 09:29:46 PM
The various Punjab polls are all over the place.  There has been polls with INC, AAP, AND SAD-BJP with the lead separately.    I sense that it will be a INC vs AAP battle with end of election tactical voting going against SAD-BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2017, 09:06:14 PM
Axis-My-India for India Today TV

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()

()

()


UP (neck-to-neck between BJP+ and SP-INC)

BJP+      34.8%           185
SP-INC   33.2%           173
BSP        20.1%             41



Uttarakhand (clear BJP victory)

BJP        44%              42
INC        35%             25
BSP          7%               1 

If BJP is ahead by 9% then BJP should win over 50 seats and not just 42 seats



Punjab

INC             37%       62
AAP             34%       42
SAD-BJP      24%       13

Most polls seems to have it INC then AAP and then SAD-BJP.  Real chance of tactical collapse of SAD-BJP.  This might be a replay of Delhi 2013 when it was a 3 way race between INC BJP and AAP.  Toward the end it was clear that incumbent INC was coming in third which led to a strategic collapse of the INC vote.



Goa

BJP             43%         23
INC            35%         13
AAP              8%           1

This poll does not poll the MGP-GSM-SHS front which could lead to an overestimation of the BJP vote here.  I find it hard to believe that BJP can win 43% in a 4 way race (BJP vs INC vs AAP vs MGP-GSM-SHS) even it BJP comes out ahead which it quite believable. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2017, 09:08:27 PM
The thing that should be concerning the BJP is that in UP, even polls that put BJP+ ahead of SP-INC show that Akhilesh Yadav is more popular than all the possible BJP CM candidates combined and Akhilesh Yadav is polling well ahead of SP-INC.  If so most likely polls that has BJP+ ahead is under-polling SP-INC support.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 31, 2017, 09:53:14 PM
The Axis-My-India poll for UP does show a surge in seat count for SP-INC once the SP-INC alliance was sealed relative to its Oct 16 and Dec 16 projections when SP and INC were going to contest separately.

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 02, 2017, 09:52:43 PM
HuffPost-CVoter polls


Punjab

AAP          36.8%     63
INC          33.1%     43
SAD-BJP   20.7%     11

SAD-BJP at risk of a total meltdown which usually works to the advantage of AAP.  What INC needs is a weakened SAD-BJP which could still pull in anti-INC votes and not a total collapse of SAD-BJP.


Goa

BJP          31%       15
INC         26%       14
AAP         13.2%      2
Others     29.8%      9

They should really poll MGP-GSM-SHS separately but this poll rings pretty true to me.  In fact I still think INC should have a slight edge here. 



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 02, 2017, 10:17:39 PM
NDTV analysis of Punjab

It looks at performance of all three fronts INC AAP and SAD-BJP in 2014 LS elections by looking at performance at the assembly segment level.


It points out that in 2014 LS elections AAP gained more from SAD-BJP than INC
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It talks about Sikh and Hindu areas
()


It then talks about INC has a slight advantage among Hindu votes while SAD-BJP has a slight advantage among Sikh voters.
()


It also talks about how SAD-BJP are stronger in rural areas while INC are stronger in urban areas
()


It also points out that AAP are stronger in Sikh seats
()


It then points out that both SAD-BJP and AAP are stronger in Sikh seats and weaker in Hindu seats which means that votes in Sikh seats tend to flow between SAD-BJP and AAP.  If these anti-INC votes are evenly splits then INC gains.  If they go one direction then INC will be in trouble.  So a complete collapse of SAD-BJP will help AAP instead of INC.
()
()


It points out that SAD-BJP are stronger with Sikh Dalits while INC are stronger with Hindu Dalits
()


It ends with saying INC has the upper hand
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 04, 2017, 09:37:35 AM
Voting over in Goa and Punjab.  Turnout in Goa is 83% which is slightly higher than 2012 Goa.  Turnout in Punjab is 70% lower than the near 79% turnout in Punjab 2012.  Most likely both numbers will be adjusted up.  So Goa will have record turnout while Punjab will see a drop of turnout from 2012.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 04, 2017, 11:42:47 AM
After voting ends NDTV updates its odds to favor a AAP victory ruled out SAD-BJP victory

Before voting it was

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Now it has it as chances of winning

AAP         55%-60%
INC         30%-35%
SAD-BJP   5%-10%

Which would imply reports from the ground show a collapse of SAD-BJP support toward AAP.

If this were to take place then even though SAD-BJP would get wiped out it is good news for Modi. With AAP winning in Punjab it becomes a viable national force and in 2019 there will then be two federal fronts to take on BJP (once centered around INC-SP and the other one centered around AAP.)  AITC will go with INC but BSP and Left Front might go with AAP.  In fact in Bihar JD(U) and RJD might split with RJD going with INC but JD(U) going with AAP.  The anti-BJP vote would get split down the middle giving the BJP a landslide victory.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2017, 12:20:56 PM
Updated turnout has Goa at 83% and Punjab at 79%.  Both at slightly higher than 2012 levels.  Both numbers could still go up.  All things equal these numbers are bad news for SAD-BJP in Punjab and BJP in Goa. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2017, 07:40:27 PM
The Gujarat and Indore betting rings seems to indicate a SP-INC win in UP and an AAP win in Punjab.  The Indore betting rings has SP-INC at a majority while the Gujarat betting rings has SP-INC barely missing majority.

Of course in 2015 the betting rings had BJP+ winning in Bihar and instead the Grand Alliance of JD(U)-RJD-INC won in a landslide.

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()

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: ag on February 07, 2017, 10:15:05 PM
This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 07:03:53 AM
This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.

This is a rule change ECI put in around 8 year ago where all assembly elections held at around the same time are considered on election.  So vote count are delayed until all states are done voting and even exit polls are not allowed to be published until all states are done voting.  The logic is early count results or exit poll results could affect voting in other states.  I do not buy it but several parties in the past claimed they were injured by this dynamic. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 07:20:30 AM
Chaos in TN politics with a ruling AIADMK civil war breaking out

Ever since TN AIADMK CM Jayalalitha passed away in Dec 2016

()


Her trusted stand-in Panneerselvam who had no real mass base but seen as blindly loyal to Jayalaitha was put in CM of TN

()


On the other hand the "Huma Abedin" of Jayalalitha, Sasikala, was installed as the General Secretary of AIADMK as the true power inside the party.

()

Sasikala had no mass base either and has power over the AIADMK MLAs although is quite unpopular with the AIADMK grass roots.  The AIADMK MLAs feared a split which could only help DMK and rallied around Sasikala.

Now Sasikala was facing corruption charges along with  Jayalalitha whose case was moving through the supreme court.  Once she consolidated power within the party her next step was to install herself as CM of TN which she hoped could alter how her case goes.

A week ago  Panneerselvam resigned as TN CM and the AIADMK MLAs elected Sasikala leader of the AIADMK TN assembly caucus.  She will have 6 months to get elected as a MLA to retain such a role but all decks were cleared for Sasikala to be CM.

Then 4 days ago  Panneerselvam went to Jayalalitha's alter and after meditating for about an hour came out and said that Jayalalitha spirit inspired him to speak the truth which are

a) he was forced to resign as TN CM by Sasikala
b) Jayalalitha died under suspicious circumstances which could involve Sasikala
c) Sasikala is very unpopular with the masses and AIADMK grassroots and does not deserve to be CM
d) He will fight to retain his position as TN CM

Which lead to a AIADMK civil war.  Most MLAs on paper are with  Sasikala and all of them have been bused to a resort hotel so  Panneerselvam's camp cannot poach them.

()

The TN governor who has to decide who to install as TN CM is really represents BJP's interests.  BJP prefers  Panneerselvam over Sasikala who is know as hostile to BJP.  For now the decision seems to be to wait until the result of Sasikala's corruption case due next week before making a decision what to do.

To keep the MLA flock loyal to Sasikala will require more resources.  As soon as  Panneerselvam revolt started Sasikala removed Panneerselvam as the AIADMK treasurer to get access to AIADMK funds.  Caretaker TN CM Panneerselvam countered with him ordering TN banks that his removal as AIADMK treasurer is illegal and to freeze AIADMK funds.

In the meantime Panneerselvam's camp is accusing the Sasikala's camp of kidnapping of the AIADMK MLAs.

So what was a smooth transition of power in TN has broken out to a AIADMK civil war when the seemly passive Panneerselvam decided to go out of his character and fight for real power within the AIADMK.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: ag on February 11, 2017, 09:03:31 AM
This not-counting-for-a-month business is strange indeed. I can understand why they do in the national elections, but the state-level elections, which are, indeed, conducted on a single day, should be counted immediately.

This is a rule change ECI put in around 8 year ago where all assembly elections held at around the same time are considered on election.  So vote count are delayed until all states are done voting and even exit polls are not allowed to be published until all states are done voting.  The logic is early count results or exit poll results could affect voting in other states.  I do not buy it but several parties in the past claimed they were injured by this dynamic. 

I know. But doing it this way also affects the results. And voting on different days also affects the results. Everything does.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 10:18:45 AM
First phase of UP elections over. Turnout at 63% as of 5PM which breaks records on several districts

Turnout in key districts are

()

Overall higher turnout should favor BJP.  News from the ground seems to indicate that BJP retained some of the non-Jatav Dalit votes on key districts which is bad news for BSP and indirectly SP-INC.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 10:21:44 AM
The delay of  Sasikala becoming TN CM due to her corruption court case is working against her as time is not on her side.  More and more MLA and MPs seems to be defecting to Panneerselvam camp.  It is not much and as long as a showdown takes place soon Sasikala should have the upper hand.  But if this drags out a couple of more weeks then Sasikala camp might collapse as the AIADMK grassroots put more pressure on AIADMK MLAs.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 10:44:35 AM
First phase of UP election turnout has been adjusted to 64.22%.  Back in 2012 UP assembly elections the turnout in these districts added up to 59.62%.  The surge in turnout are most likely Jat votes and counter-consolidation in response to the Jat turnout.  BJP had been desperate to recapture the Jat vote.  If they failed in this the this turnout surge, at least the Jat part of it, would work against BJP and in favor of RLD and also a bit for SP-INC.  Of course the counter-consolidation to the Jat turnout are most likely non-Jadav Dailt vote which in theory favor BSP but the word from the ground is that a good part of the non-Jadav Dalit vote, like 2014, went to BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 10:55:03 AM
TN assembly MLA count (latest media estimates)

AIADMK Sasikala                    112
AIADMK Panneerselvam           10
AIADMK unclear                       14
DMK                                        89
INC                                           8
MUL                                          1

In a showdown between  Sasikala  and Panneerselvam, DMK, hoping to benefit from a prolonged AIADMK civil war, will most likely  Panneerselvam along with MUL.  INC is in a tough spot and split on this issue.  INC knows that BJP is hostile to Sasikala so using the enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend logic INC should back Sasikala.  But that risks a break with INC ally DMK.  Most likely INC will just stay neutral. 

Sasikala must somehow maneuver the the de facto BJP TN governor to push for a showdown soon because as soon as AIADMK Panneerselvam-DMK exceeds AIADMK Sasikala in terms of MLAs then the entire AIADMK Sasikala  bloc will dissolve. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2017, 11:00:52 AM
Sasikala camp releases this picture to show that the pro-Sasikala AIADMK MLAs living in resorts are solidly behind Sasikala (show in the middle of the picture) in a metting earlier today.

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 12, 2017, 06:13:35 PM
India Today on the ground report from the first phase of UP indicates the following trends

1) Higher turnout mostly driven by the Muslim vote which seems to be leaning SP-INC which is bad news for both BSP and BJP.  If the BSP can win the Muslim vote it should be in the districts in the first phase where BSP has some strength and SP-INC tend to weaker so one could expect the Muslim vote to go BSP. 

2) Jats turnout was also high and seems to have turned against BJP relative to 2014 mostly to the benefit of RLD.  It seems the BJP mission to recapture the Jat vote has failed.

3) The main hope for the BJP seems to be that the non-Jatav Dalit vote did split between BJP and BSP versus coming home to BSP.  This seems to be driven by still positive views of Dailts of Modi.

All things equal if Muslim turnout has increase and consolidated behind SP-INC and if we expect this trend to continue in the rest of the election then BSP is pretty much out of the running and the BJP has to hope for Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC counter consolidation behind BJP.  This does not seem likely as SP-INC did not really campaign on the Muslim vote.  If anything the BSP has been more explicit about  about trying to rope in the Muslim vote.  Communal polarization tends to be based on jujitsu principles where it is second mover advantage.  There is usually an explicit attempt to polarize a community behind a party which usually does not succeed but the reaction consolidation in response tends to be the driving factor that is successful. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 13, 2017, 07:35:27 AM
The pro-Modi Hindi Daily Dainik Jagran published an exit poll, illegally, of the first phase of the UP.  It took  the results down from its website but that will not save it from being punished by the ECI.  The exit poll had BJP clearly ahead with BSP second with SP-INC a poor third which seems to contradict most media on the ground reports.   It seems that this exit poll was meant to influence the voting in Eastern and Central UP where Dainik Jagran readership is very high.  If these results were true, which it very well could be, then it would mean that the Muslim vote was split between BSP and SP-INC while the Jat and non-Jatav Dalit vote consolidated behind BJP which again seems contrary to several other media reports on the ground in Western UP.

This exit poll also seems coordinated with the new BJP line that in the first and second phase of UP elections it will be BJP vs BSP while rest of the phases it will be BJP vs SP.  While it is true that the first phase is SP's weakest phase, the second phase districts historically has been reasonably strong for SP.  So the BJP line seems to imply that there has been Muslim consolidation behind SP-INC so there is a need to play down SP-INC strength so the Muslim vote could be split toward BSP in the second phase.  This exit poll does seem to consistent with that line weather it is accurate or not. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2017, 09:45:20 PM
In TN Sasikala found guilty of corruption by the supreme court and will be going to jail.  She handpicked Palaniswami  to be the leader of the AIADMK legislative party and expelled TN caretaker CM Panneerselvam from AIADMK.  There does not seem to be a flood of pro-Sasikala MLAs flooding to join the Panneerselvam camp.  This could change once Sasikala is taken into custody.  AIADMK is headed for a vertical split and there could be mid-term elections in TN.   


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2017, 10:11:01 PM
Next phase of UP elections voting tomorrow along with Uttarakhand.

Funny stories from this phase are

1) In Nakur of UP, the RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap decided to defect to BJP two days before voting claiming that he has been insulted by the leadership of the BJP.  It is too late to remove his name from the ballot so he has been campaigning against himself calling for his supporters to vote BJP.  At the same time RLD has come out calling Ramkumar Kashyap a traitor but still calling for voters to vote RLD which on paper the candidate is Ramkumar Kashyap himself.  So Ramkumar Kashyap campaign pitch is "vote against Ramkumar Kashyap" while RLD's campaign pitch is "punish the traitor Ramkumar Kashyap by voting for RLD candidate Ramkumar Kashyap".   In 2012 Nakur was a BSP vs INC(backed by RLD) battle with SP and BJP far behind while in 2014 Nakur was 3 way battle between BJP SP BSP with RLD far behind when the Jat vote went BJP. 

2) In Uttarakhand, it as rebels galore as out of 70 seats 13 BJP candidates are INC MLAs and 7 INC candidates are BJP MLAs.  In a couple of districts the BJP and INC candidates are repeating the 2012 faceoff but with party labels reversed.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2017, 08:48:15 AM
Voting over. UP phase 2 turnout around 66% which is a slight increase from 2012's turnout of 65.1%.  This number will most likely increase.

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 15, 2017, 08:50:50 AM
Uttarakhand turnout around 68% which most likely will increase.  In 2012 turnout was 66.6%.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2017, 07:45:18 PM
In TN, Sasilkala is in jail but still remains the General Secretary of AIADMK.  Right before going to jail she appointed inducted her her nephew Dinakaran into AIADMK (he was expelled by jayalalitha back in 2011 and made Sasilkala produce a written promise to break off all contacts with him and the rest of her family) and then made Dinakaran the Vice General Secretary of AIADMK. 

WIth this Sasilkala's domination of AIADMK is complete so she has a proxy General Secretary running the party and a proxy CM Palaniswami being installed.  It seems the vast majority of the Sasilkala faction AIADMK are sticking with her and as such Palaniswami is being installed as CM of TN.  Last chance to stop Sasilkala remote control of TN in jail is a confidence vote in the TN assembly coming up soon.  The Panneerselvam faction seems so far only to have around 10 MLAs which would not be enough to stop the Sasilkala faction.  Not clear why the vast majority of the AIADMK MLAs are sticking by a Sasilkala who is in jail but unless there are significant defections in the trust vote Sasilkala will dominate TN politics from jail for a while.

If so then in restrospect the Panneerselvam rebellion was a huge mistake.  Had Panneerselvam stayed silent last week as Sasilkala was going to be installed as CM she would have been found guilty of corruption by the Supreme Court a couple of days later, then be stripped of her title of TN CM and then Panneerselvam would have been reinstalled as TN CM as a proxy CM for Sasilkala after which he would be able to work to break free of Sasilkala's control over time.  Instead now Palaniswami will be that proxy CM.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2017, 08:41:46 AM
In TN Sasilkala proxy CM Palaniswami wins trust vote 122-11.  

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DMK INC and MUL MLAs walked out of the assembly chamber protesting how Palaniswami was installed.  The AIADMK speaker rejected a secret ballot proposal from DMK.  In the end the Panneerselvam rebel AIADMK faction could only muster 11 MLAs.   All of them will be expelled as MLAs for going against the AIADMK party whip.

Scene at TN assembly after DMK-INC protests tried to stall the vote and then later walked out of the assembly.
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Again not clear why the vast majority of AIADMK would go along with an assistant of Jayalalitha as their leader and when Sasilkala was put in jail still stick together to back Sasilkala's proxy.  Part of it is the AIADMK cultural of treating their leadership as deity.  

How some AIADMK MLAs greet Jayalalitha.
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Of course another reason is the fact that DMK-INC has significant base in TN and if AIADMK splinters that would only mean all of them will end up in the wilderness.

DMK leader Stalin is going on a fast to protest the lack of a secret ballot.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 19, 2017, 08:29:26 PM
Third Phase UP elections done.

Turnout was 61.16% while the 2014 LS turnout in these districts were  58.43% and in 2012 assembly elections were 59.96%.  It seems the districts with the largest increase in turnout are the Yadav strongholds. 

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This phase contains a lot of SP strongholds and is the strongest phase for SP.  Main issue for SP are what impact the SP rebels that are aligned with the Shivpal Yadav faction have on the SP candidates.  If that could be kept to the minimum then SP-INC should end up winning most of the seats in this phase.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 19, 2017, 09:54:37 PM
SP dodged a bullet.  One of the candidates on  Shivpal Yadav's list of candidates that Akilish Yadav ended up rejecting was Aman Mani Tripathi for Nautanwa who was the SP candidate there in 2012 as well. Aman Mani Tripathi ended  running as an independent as a SP rebel.   

Aman Mani Tripathi with wife
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Back in late 2016 Aman Mani Tripathi's wife was killed in a car accident.  Just today Aman Mani Tripathi was charged with murder of his wife and faking the car accident. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 20, 2017, 08:09:54 AM
In Maharashtra, there will be civic elections on tuesday including the massive and critical BMC ( Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation) of Mumbai.  BJP-SHS alliance has ruled here since 1997.  BJP and SHS relationship has been strained since 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections when BJP and SHS contested separately but cobbled up a government led by the BJP.  Sensing that BJP is at risk of permanently overtaking SHS in Maharashtra, SHS broke off the alliance with the BJP for the BMC elections turning the election into a 3 way battle (BJP vs SHS vs INC) as NCP is very weak in Mumbai.

It seems very likely that if SHS does very well or very poorly in the BMC election that SHS will break off the alliance with the BJP both at the Maharashtra and at the center as well.

Right now the Maharashtra assembly seat breakdown are

BJP+        124 (RSPS allied with BJP)
SHS           63
MNS            1 (SHS splinter)
SHS rebel    2
INC           42
INC rebel     3
NCP+        45 (BVA allied with NCP)
NCP rebel    1
PWPI          3
AIMIM        2
BBM           1
CPM           1

If SHS pulls out of the alliance with the BJP there was talk that NCP might back a BJP government like it offered to after the 2014 Maharashtra assembly elections.  NCP has already produced a written document to the   Maharashtra governor that it will not back BJP no matter what.  If so SHS pulls out of the alliance then Maharashtra will be headed toward mid-term elections.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on February 20, 2017, 12:04:46 PM
Modi is coming under fire due to some communally & religiously discriminating comments against Muslims?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 20, 2017, 03:40:29 PM
Modi is coming under fire due to some communally & religiously discriminating comments against Muslims?

Modi. while campaigning in UP, indirectly attacked SP for directing government resources toward Muslims.  He said that "If village gets graveyard, should get cremation ground too?"  Of course Hindus cremate their dead while Muslims bury them.  INC and SP are up in arms and are going to complain to the ECI that Modi is making a communal appeal which in violation of election rules (a rule I very much oppose as it goes against free speech.) 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 20, 2017, 03:49:17 PM
In Mumbai, It is a fight to the finish between BJP and SHS.  It is actually pretty funny these two allies for over 25 year in Mumbai until last month are now throwing all sort of mud at each other with both sides accusing the other of massive corruption and SHS calling the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis a liar in its main magazine even as BJP and SHS are still in theory allies at the Maharashtra state level as well as the center.

It seems the desperation on both sides has to do with with survival of the Maharashtra BJP CM Devendra Fadnavis's government.  It SHS does well relative to the BJP then it can withdraw support from the Fadnavis's government after the election which would fall with INC NCP and now SHS ranged against it.  It BJP does well relative to SHS then one can expect SHS to swallow its pride to accept its fate as junior partner to BJP or the SHS will split down the middle with a significant faction of SHS defecting to BJP to help BJP form a majority while SHS's profile shrink across Maharashtra. 

INC and NCP are contesting separately as well but NCP has very little support in Mumbai so in theory this is a great opportunity for INC to emerge as the winner.  Unfortunately INC is even more faction ridden than in previous years and AIMIM is making a big push this time in Mumbai and will most likely drag down INC across the board. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 20, 2017, 05:16:26 PM
In Amethi, one of the seats that SP-INC never resolved, SP incumbent Gayatri Prasad is running for re-election and former INC MLA Ameeta Singh running as an independent is up against BJP's Rani Garima Sinh whose husband is the former husband of Ameeta Singh in a "wife vs wife battle."  In 2012  SP's Gayatri Prasad defeated INC incumbent Ameeta Singh/.   To add the the drama now SP candidate Gayatri Prasad

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Has been charged with gange rape and attempted rape of a minor.  The BJP and BSP are making this a big issue to discredit SP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 21, 2017, 02:30:52 PM
2012 Mumbai BMC elections.

SHS-BJP-RPA(A)
 SHS                     75
 BJP                      31
-------------------------------
                         106

NMS                    28

INC-NCP
 INC                    52
 NCP                   13
--------------------------------
                          65

Others                28

At least 19 out of the 28 Others backed SHS-BJP

This time RPI(A) is allied with BJP which is contesting separately from SHS while NCP and INC are contesting separately.  MNS is a lot weaker this time relative to 2012 while AIMIM is expected to cut into the INC vote.

Bookies expect SHS to exceed 100 seats while it expect both INC and BJP to be around 50 seats. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 21, 2017, 02:36:00 PM
BMC election turnout was 55% highest in 25 years which should be good news for BJP and most likely bad news for SHS.

Axis-My India exit poll on BMC election

This poll has SHS-BJP polarization pulling into tactical voting votes from all other parties as well as independents

SHS          32%         89
BJP           32%         84
INC          16%          32
MNS           8%           6
NCP            4%           5
SP              3%           3
Others        5%           6

This type of seat distribution where SHS and BJP are neck-to-neck is just about the only seat distribution that could prevent a  collapse of the BJP-SHS alliance at the state and center level.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 22, 2017, 05:33:10 PM
Zee 24 Taas exit polls for BMC election

SHS       93
BJP        80
INC        29

Same exit poll has for Zilla (District) council elections across Maharashtra seat count to be

BJP       375
INC       298
NCP      285
SHS      259

Traditionally at the Zilla level INC and NCP tends to be stronger so this result as a very positive one for BJP if true.




Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 23, 2017, 07:32:23 AM
BMC election results out: Significant progress for BJP even as SHS edges out BJP for first place

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

Results matches exit polls pretty well.  MNS collapsed from 2012.  Since BJP and SHS are contesting separately just like INC and NCP a lot of independents from 2012 contested in one of these 4 parties and as a result independent winners went down a lot from 2012.  INC and NCP could have saved itself from a rout had they formed a INC-NCP-SP alliance but as it was they both took losses despite the SHS-BJP split.

There does not seem to be any alternative to SHS and BJP forming an alliance again as there is no way INC SP or MIM joining either bloc.  In theory NCP or NMS could join BJP but that is unlikely and would not be enough anyway.  The battle now is which bloc, SHS or BJP, can get enough independents and perhaps other parties on its side so they can claim the larger bloc of the two and demand the position of mayor.  Both parties are already trying to woo the 4 independents and ABS (which is a mafia dominated SHS splinter.)

In the rest of Maharashtra municipal elections the story is the same. SHS-BJP split enough pushed INC and NCP votes toward SHS and BJP and the lack of INC-NCP alliance means that SHS and BJP both gain seats across the board, especially BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 23, 2017, 11:53:36 AM
UP election phase 4 just completed.  Turnout is for now 60.37% whereas in 2012 these district turnout was at 60.20%.  A good part of Phase 4 in UP is Bundelkhand which is one of the most backward regions of UP.  Here SP is pretty weak but INC is relatively strong along with BSP.  So here it will be BJP vs INC vs BSP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 23, 2017, 11:58:00 AM
The reports from the ground in UP is that in Phase 3 which have a lot of SP strongholds there was a swing away from SP due to anti-incumbency as well as the impact of the SP civil war.  There is a view that this might be a trend that could carry over to the other phases.

As a result whereas bookies had SP-INC at 220 seats and BJP at 97 a couple of weeks ago, now the odds are SP-INC 150 and BJP 160 seats.  BSP odds are at around 70 seats the entire time.  Historically BSP tends to be underrated so an estimation of BSP at 70 seats is actually quite impressive for BSP and ominous for SP-INC as that means the Muslim vote could be split between SP-INC and BSP which is a pre-condition for a BJP victory.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 23, 2017, 12:59:53 PM
NDTV analysis of UP

First they talk about the BJP 2014 surge and doing the breakdown by assembly segments
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They point out the 2014 BJP surge was based on a bunch of one-off factors which are based on surge in BJP support with Jats, Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits many of which will not take place in 2017
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They then used the 2014 results to map out a vote share-to-seats map
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They point out core votes for each party
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They focused on the Muslim vote on how it is more urban, it swung against BJP in 2014, and that higher concentration of Muslims in certain districts provokes Hindu consolidation, least in 2014
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It then points out that communal voting takes places in USA as well
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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 25, 2017, 10:15:05 AM
In BMC where the results are

SHS           84
BJP            82
INC            31
NCP             9
MNS            7
SP               6
MIM            3
ABS            1
Ind.            4

The 4 independents seems to have backed SHS (some will actually just join SHS since 3 of them are SHS rebels anyway).  

As the largest party SHS has first shot at winning a vote for mayor.  SHS is now to get INC support arguing that 1) INC should want to block BJP despite any ideological differences  between INC and SHS.  2) SHS has backed INC for mayor of BMC back in the 1980s  3) SHS actually backed the INC Prez candidate for India in 2007 and 2012 breaking ranks with BJP.  INC seems to be split on this.  Some are ruling it out, others would demand SHS break their alliance with the BJP at the Maharashtra and all India level first and while even others are open to abstaining in the vote for mayor giving the SHS a shot a roping in ABS NCP NMS or SP, or at least getting them to abstain.

One way for SHS to win is to pretty much a) Get ABS to back it b) Get NCP NMS SP and INC to all abstain since each one of them have reasons to oppose BJP even more c) MIM will vote against SHS just like BJP but SHS with 88 plus ABS will be able to win.  The weakest link in this list would be NCP who might have more reasons to oppose SHS than BJP since SHS like NCP is really a Maharashtra party so their relative relationships tends to be more zero sum.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 25, 2017, 01:04:06 PM
In the  Maharashtra rural 25 Zilla Parishads elections the seat count by party are

BJP    406
NCP   360
INC    309
SHS   271

In 2012 it was

NCP   511
INC    419
SHS   243
BJP    165

Just like in the municipals elections there is a Maratha consolidation behind SHS while there are non-Maratha Hindu (Gujarati and Hindus from other states) consolidation behind BJP


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 26, 2017, 09:16:21 PM
UP 5th phase voting in progress.  Included are Rahul Gandhi district of Amethi many of which will see INC-SP friendly fights.  SP did very well here in 2012 and will be playing defense against the BJP surge.

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2017, 07:47:40 AM
Looking through the results of BMC one finds the BJP surge was based on the consolidation of Gujarati and North Indian votes along with some Marathi votes brought along  by various Marathi leaders that BJP inducted into the BJP for this election. One of the reason SHS was able to keep up was the consolidation of the remaining Marathi vote away from INC and NCP toward SHS.  What also helped SHS was, ironically, the Muslim vote which voted tactically to defeat BJP and then for, on paper, the more Hindu extremists SHS.

This voting pattern is the culmination of trends that finally pulled BJP and SHS apart.  It really started 10 years ago when MNS split from SHS. MNS strived to outflank SHS by being more extremist on its anti-Muslim plank as well as go after non-Marathi (like Gujaratis and North Indians.)  SHS had to adjust its position closer to MNS to avoid its urban Marathi based being taken over by MNS.  Over time this caused a problem for BJP-SHS relationships since SHS is a Maharashtra regional party while BJP has national aspirations and has to cater to Gujarati in Gujarat and North Indians in the Hindu heartland of UP and Bihar.  This finally led to a fracture between BJP and SHS in 2014 assembly elections.  But as SHS focused on Marathi mobilization to counter BJP in a fight about native sons of Maharashtra vs outsiders its position on Muslims subtly changed.  Muslims who recently migrated to Maharashtra  recently for sure would still be targeted but Muslims that have been in Maharashtra for generations would actually not be targeted by SHS relative to North Indians.  The resulting communal coalitions gives us the results we observed in the BMC election.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2017, 07:51:15 AM
It seems that in Maharashtra the NCP has been shocked by the municipal and rural  Zilla Parishads results  into reviewing its break with INC in Maharashtra.  NCP now is proposing an across the board alliance with INC to counter the growing power of BJP and SHS.  INC seems to be taking its time since SHS is also sending out feelers to INC for an tactical alliance in BMC and perhaps in other parts of Maharashtra.  The next Maharashtra assembly election might be BJP vs SHS vs INC-NCP or BJP vs SHS-INC (tactial) vs NCP   or even BJP-NCP (tactical) vs SHS-INC (tactical).


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2017, 07:56:26 AM
In BMC, it seems when it comes to SHS's desire for an alliance with INC in to elect a SHS mayor, INC's position is to make a decision last minute to vote against, for or abstain the SHS candidate for mayor.  The reason is the election for BMC mayor is right after all the UP elections are done.  INC feels that a vote to abstain or for SHS would lose INC votes in UP for Hindus and Muslims alike given the hostility between SHS in Maharashtra and North Indians (Hindus and Muslims.)  The inclination for INC in BMC is to at least abstain just to make sure BJP is locked out.  But INC can only do it after all the votes in UP are cast.     


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 27, 2017, 08:00:01 AM
Voting ends in 5th phase of UP elections.  Turnout estimated at 57.36%.  In 2012 these district turnout is 57.1%.  Most likely estimated turnout will be increased.  So turnout increased a bit from 2012 levels.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on February 28, 2017, 10:25:08 PM
Just to clear about the different communal coalitions BJP+, INC-SP and BSP has in mind.

In UP we have

Upper Caste           20%
OBC                       40%
 Yadavs                      10%
 Other BC                  10%
 EBC                          20%
Dalits                    20%
 Jatavs                      10%
 Non-Jatavs Dalits      10%
Muslims                20%

The BJP plan is roughly
a) For Jatavs, Muslims, Yadavs which add up to 40% of the vote, just cede them all and target winning about 7.5% of this group or 3% of the total vote
b) For Upper castes which add up to 20% of the vote, assume that BJP will manage to keep most of its 2014 result and win around 65% of them or 13% of the total vote using the traditional Upper Caste BJP turnout machine
c) For the rest (Non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBC) which are 40% of the vote, ally with EBC parties like AD and SBSP as well as run a lot of of non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit candidates along with the Modi brand to win almost have of this vote which adds up to 19% of the total vote.

This means BJP+ would win 3%+13%+19%=35% which would lead to

BJP+     35%
SP-INC  32%
BSP       24%

For BJP+ to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



The SP-INC plan is roughly
1) For Yadav and Muslims vote which adds up to 30% of the vote win around 2/3 of that voting bloc for 20% of the total vote based on the traditional SP Yadav turnout machine plus projecting itself as the main opponent of BJP+ and have the Muslim vote come to SP-INC by itself.  
2) Give up on the Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote.
3) For the remaining  60% of the vote (which are Upper Castes and non-Jatav Dalits, and non-Yadav OBC) win 1/4 of the vote for 15% of the total vote based on residual INC support among Upper Castes   and non-Jatav Dalits, old SP turnout machine among EBCs, and the Akhilesh Yadav clean image to capture non-Yadav BC and  Upper Caste votes.  For SP and INC strongholds use traditional candidates.  In other districts renominate cleaner image SP MLAs  to coordinate with the Akhilesh Yadav image based campaign.  

This means SP-INC would win 20%+15%=35% which would lead to

SP-INC  35%
BJP+     32%
BSP       24%

For a SP-INC to be the largest bloc if not a narrow majority



BSP plan is roughly
1) Count on the BSP core Jatav vote which is 10% of the vote to come back to BSP and win 80% to get 8% of the total without nominating Jadav candidates.
2) Nominate some Non-Jatav Dalit but too many and count on the Non-Jatav Dalit vote which is 10% of t he vote to come back to BSP and win half of the vote to win 5% of the total vote.
3) Nominate large number of Muslim candidates (over 100 out of 403 seats) to target to Muslim vote which is 20% of the vote to win about 1/3 of the vote for 7% of the total vote.
4) For the remaining 60% of the vote (OBC and Upper Castes) win around 15% of the vote by nominating candidates from OBC and Upper castes based on the caste demographics of of the district for 10% of the vote vote.

This means BSP would win 8%+5%+7%+10%=30% which would lead to

BSP       30%
BJP+     30%
SP-INC  30%

For a three way tie between the three blocs which is the best BSP can hope for.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 02, 2017, 09:00:13 PM
Current betting markets are giving the BSP a pretty good result

BJP+      161
SP-INC   150
BSP         72
Others     20


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2017, 08:49:43 AM
UP 6th phase voting done.  Turnout was 57.03% while in 2012 the same districts turnout was 55.04%.

7th phase will be March 8th when all voting will be done and exit polls will come out.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 04, 2017, 07:48:34 PM
More NDTV analysis of UP

Gives communal breakdown of UP
()

Points that East UP and West UP vote on different things
()

Points out that "higher" Dalits which are Jatavs vote BSP while "lower" Dalits might go BJP
()

Points out the UP anti-BJP grand alliance is weaker than the Bihar anti-BJP grand alliance
()

Points out that winner needs 35% of the vote
()

Old talking point that BJP+ would have to suffer a large swing from 2014 to lose this election
()

Points out where the core votes are for each bloc
()

Points out that SP seems to be targeting Yadavs, Upper Caste and does not prioritize non-Yadav OBC
()

If 2012 is the baseline then SP-INC would make a significant difference
()

But if 2014 is the baseline then BJP has too much of a vote share lead for SP-INC to make much of a difference
()

Shows where each bloc might be vulnerable
()

Talks about how UP is mostly rural
()

And that SP-INC and BSP tends to do better in rural areas while BJP is stronger in the cities
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()

Points out that BJP has an edge based on ground reports
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 09:31:00 AM
Now that NDTV's Prannoy Roy projects a BJP victory (although not necessary absolute majority) over SP-INC, it seems India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai also made pretty much the same projection.  These two are the among to the English speaking journalists in India.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 04:24:35 PM
There seems to be a view that in UP in a 3 way race 35% should be enough to secure a majority and that the BJP is closing in on that threshold.  I guess looking at UP assembly elections in the 1990s when the BJP was the most powerful political force in UP seems to indicate that the structure of the BJP vote would indicate that BJP might need to do a bit better than 35% to win a majority of the seats if we correctly strip out the Uttarakhand results from the 1991 1993 and 1996 UP assembly election results.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 04:33:47 PM
UP 1991 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         397             204               31.32%

BJP rebel                          0                 0.28%
SHS           14                  1                 0.13%

INC+        396               44               16.98%

INC rebel                         0                 0.32%

JD+          377               92               19.77%

CPI+          52                 5                 1.37%  (includes CPM, had tactical alliance with JD+)

SJP+        390               34               13.31%

SJP rebel                         5                 0.60%

BSP          371               12                 9.70%

There was a JD government in UP since 1989 and fell due to the split of JD at the center where SJP split from JD.  In UP Mulayam Singh Yadav was the face of SJP and the original plan was for a INC-SJP alliance which had the potential to beat back the surging BJP.  At the last minute SJP called off the alliance and it was a 5 way battle between BJP, INC, JD, SJP and BSP.  BJP won a bare majority of seats in what is now UP despite winning over 31% of the vote in a 5 way race.



The LS election held at the same time produced the following results

UP 1991 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          79                46               32.39%

INC+         79                  5               18.07%
 
JD+           77                23               23.90%   (includes CPI and CPM)

SJP            77                 4               10.94%

BSP+         66                 1                 9.10%

Mostly same as assembly election with JD+ being helped by explicit alliance with CPM-CPI but BJP doing better in terms of seat count relative to assembly election results.  SJP did worse in LS elections relative to assembly elections due to the fact that SJP only had one start campaigner, Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was focused more on the assembly election to retain his position as CM.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 04:42:25 PM
UP 1993 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP           401              165               33.18%

BJP rebel                          2                  0.45%

INC+       400                22                14.38%

INC rebel                         0                   0.36%

SP+         401              177                30.21%   (includes BSP)

SP rebel                           2                  0.90%
BSP rebel                         0                  0.34%

SJP          289                  1                  0.53%

JD+         360                27                12.46%

JD rebel                           1                  0.10%

CPI+        49                   4                  1.08%  (includes CPM, has tactical alliance with JD+)

The BJP government fell in 1993 after it was dismissed by the INC government at the center for the riots which led to the destruction of the Ayodhya masque.  In the meantime Mulayam Singh Yadav split from SJP forming SP which left SJP as a tiny force in UP.  Proto-RLD led by Ajit Singh split from JD and merged into INC.  In 1991 the 5 way battle led to the following pecking order  BJP, JD, INC, SJP, BSP.  The risk of extinction was heavy on SP and BSP who decided to form an OBC-Dalit alliance.  This bloc did very well and won the most seats, beating back BJP, despite winning less votes than BJP in what is now UP.  Now it is JD and INC that are at risk of extinction.  


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 04:52:10 PM
There was a LS election in 1996 before the UP assembly elections with the result being

UP 1996 LS election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          80               50                34.50%   (includes SAP)

INC            80                5                   8.05%

INC rebel                        1                  0.67%
AIIC(T)      71                 0                  1.79%   (AIIC(T) was an INC splinter)

SP+          80               18                26.89%    (includes JD, CPM CPI)

SP rebel                         0                  0.42%                    

BSP          80                 6                20.98%

AD            42                 0                 0.51%   (AD is a BSP splinter)



The a few months went by before the UP assembly elections with results being:

UP 1996 Assembly election (excluding Uttarakhand)

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+          403             161              32.63%  (includes SAP)

BJP rebel                           1                0.45%

SP+           402            132               29.46%  (includes JD, BKKP (prooto-RLD),
                                                                        INC splinter AIIC(T), CPM, CPI)

SP rebel                           3                 0.68%
JD rebel                           1                 0.27%
BKKP rebel                       1                 0.28%
SJP             77                 1                 0.61%

BSP+        403            100                28.36%  (includes INC)

INC rebel                        1                  0.43%
BSP rebel                        1                  0.27%

AD           150                 0                 0.80%  (AD is BSP splinter)

The SP-BSP government collapsed after a couple of years due to personality clashed between SP's Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP's Mayawati.  A BSP-BJP government was formed but also then fell apart with 1996 elections being called.  In the meantime BKKP which is proto-RLD split out from INC while the AIIC(T) split from INC as well taking with it a good chunk of INC upper caste vote as well as a good part of its Uttarakhand base.   Fearing extinction, just liked SP and BSP did after 1991, INC joined up with BSP and JD joined up with SP.  CPI-CPM also joined up with SP.  The result was a fairly even three way split of votes and seats.
  


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 05, 2017, 04:57:06 PM
After 1996 elections there was a deadlock.  Eventually a BSP-BJP government was formed which fell apart almost right away.  The BJP lured significant number of BSP and INC defectors to join BJP or to form pro-BJP splinters like INC splinter ABLTC and a barely stable majority as formed.  The political price the BJP had to pay to secure these defections formed the basis of the decline of the BJP which coupled with its inability to resolve its Upper Caste vs OBC factional disputes finally led to setback for the BJP in UP starting in 1999.

The lesson of these elections in the 1990s was that while the BJP could win 30%+ vote share in UP, in assembly elections the rarely translated into a majority of seats or even the largest party even as such vote shares were able to do well for the BJP in the LS elections. 

1996 UP assembly elections might be the best model for the current election with a 3 way battle and BJP seeming to have the upper hand in terms of vote share.  That high BJP+ vote share did translate into BJP being the largest party but nowhere near majority.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 07, 2017, 07:24:43 AM
The media narrative last couple of weeks has shifted from a SP-INC victory to advantage BJP.  This is based on ground reports that SP-INC does not seem to be gaining that much beyond its Muslim-Yadav core, SP and INC are not effective in tranfering votes to each other, and that in many seats INC are fielding weak candidates which the BJP can take advantage.  Also the view is that BJP-AD plus SBSP has 43.7% of the vote in 2014 LS election and even a swing of around 8% would still put BJP-AD-SBSP above 35%.

Business standard did come out with a narrative which looks at it the way I looked at it a few weeks ago. Namely the 18 UP by-elections after 2014 indicates that BJP's vote loss could be well above 8%

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Now, SP's real strength is significantly worse than these numbers would infer since the ruling party tends to do better in assembly by-elections in India for pork barrel politics reasons.  But still, with BSP not running and the Dalit open to BJP poaching the BJP lost 11% from its 2014 levels.  Also a look at UP assembly and LS elections since the 1990s indicates that BJP tends to lose around 2% of its LS vote in an assembly election in UP anyway even if the LS and assembly election are held on the same day or a few months apart.  Plus, it is totally possible that BJP+ could beat SP-INC in terms of vote share but lose the seat count depending on how the BSP vote is structured.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 12:16:58 PM
Last phase of UP done along with the second phase of Manipur.  Turnout in 7th phase of UP was 60.03% while back in 2012 it was 57.92% for the same districts.  This higher turnout seems to have benefited BJP where non-Yadav OBC seems to be gravitating toward BJP+ while it is more negative for BSP whose high Dalit turnout is diluted by higher turnout for Non-Yadav OBCs.

Exit polls will come out tomorrow since there is one seat in UP which will vote tomorrow due to death of the SP candidate.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 12:19:55 PM
Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 12:21:33 PM
My algorithm on converting exit poll results to real results.

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 12:43:27 PM
Most political pundits seem to converge toward the following narrative

1) BJP+ will win UP but fall short of majority
2) SP-INC alliance prevented BJP+ majority
3) SP-INC alliance could have done better if INC got around 60 instead of 103 seats as many INC candidates were seen as weak and not able to pull in the SP vote bloc giving a free walk to BJP+

Indian equity markets pretty much priced in a BJP+ plurality if not majority in UP.  A BJP setback could lead to a very large drop in Indian equity markets. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 02:31:23 PM
It seems neither BJP nor SP are that confident of victory.  Rajnath Singh, a key BJP leader and former CM of UP indicated that if it was not for the SP-INC alliance BJP would have won 300+ seats versus just a simple majority.  Akhilesh Yadav stated that if it was not for Modi the UP BJP would have faced a total wipeout in the UP elections versus just a simple SP-INC victory.  Both sides are claiming victory but putting in subtle conditions on why they might not do as well as their boasts. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 09:18:14 PM
Turnout overall in UP is 60.9% while in 2012 UP assembly elections was 59.15%.  In 2014 LS elections turnout was 58.4%.  The trend last decade or so was for turnout to rise.  I suspect turnout in 2017 is about the same as 2012 as part of the reasons for the turnout increase is better pruning of voter rolls.  Overall higher turnout should help BJP (since Upper Caste and OBCs tend to vote at lower rates than Dalits) and hurt BSP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 08, 2017, 09:54:35 PM
India Today panel of experts predict UP election results

A slight majority has BJP ahead but without majority.  It would be funny if the Astrologer/Numerologist/Tarot card reader ends up closest to the mark.


Manisha Priyam (Political analyst)
BJP                        170-180
SP-Cong                100-110
BSP                        90-100
RLD                         20-30

Ajit Jha (Editor, research, India Today)
BJP                          170
SP-Cong                  130
BSP                           90
RLD                            7

Javed Ansari (Executive editor, India Today)
BJP                          160
SP-Cong              140-150
BSP                      90-105
RLD                       12-15

Sunita Aron (Senior journalist)
BJP                      160-180
SP-Cong              130-150
BSP                      90-100

Uday Sinha (Political analyst)
BJP                    90-110
SP-Cong           195-210
BSP                 105-115
RLD                    8-15

Sharat Pradhan (Senior journalist)
BJP                 170-180
SP-Cong         150-160
BSP                  70-80
RLD                   5-10

Anupam Kapil (Astrologer)
BJP                   160
SP-Cong           185
BSP                   53
RLD                    5

Veo Pratap Vaidik (Senior journalist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           190
BSP                   60
RLD                    6

Rishi Dwivedi (Numerologist)
BJP                   130
SP-Cong           140
BSP                  120
RLD                     7

Shella Bajaj (tarot card reader)
BJP                   150
SP-Cong           190
BSP                 65-69
RLD                   5-10
 


They also show the various bookie numbers which are totally crazy and out of sync with each other.  They range from BJP being first or third and BSP being first to third.  SP-INC seems to be either first or second.

Delhi

BJP               160-170
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP                 70-75
 

Agra

BJP                 75-80
SP-Cong        155-160
BSP               125-130


Kolkata

BJP                 90-95
SP-Cong        140-145
BSP               155-160
 

Lucknow

BJP                 80-85
SP-Cong        170-175
BSP               120-125

Indore

BJP                180-185
SP-Cong        130-135
BSP                 68-70



The average of all these bookie numbers are

BJP                117-123
SP-INC          147-152
BSP               108-112

BSP numbers seem very high.  My guess is that it seems most people are betting for a low seat count for BSP so the bookies has to raise its break-even target for BSP to hedge themselves.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 05:29:12 AM
Exit polls coming out soon.  BJP claims 200+ seats while SP claims SP-INC to win 180-190.  BSP is silent.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 06:53:26 AM
Oxus Investments, which did a very good job of predicting 2016 assembly election results came out with

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Which has BJP ahead across the board although SAD-BJP totally crushed in Punjab
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:04:08 AM
India TV-CVoter  Manipur exit poll

BJP     35%   28
INC    32%   20
Others         12

Goa

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BJP      36%   18
INC     32%    15
AAP      13%    2
Others             6


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:05:50 AM
NewsX UP exit poll

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BJP+      185    33%
SP-INC   120    28%
BSP          90    25%
Others       8     14%



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:10:59 AM
Newsx Goa exit poll

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BJP      15    31%
INC     10     26%
AAP      7     20%
MAG+  2       6%
Others  6     17%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:13:54 AM
NewsX Punjab exit polls

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SAD-BJP      7   20%
INC           55   33%
AAP           55   37%
Others        0    10%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:16:15 AM
Times Now, UP-VMR Poll exit polls
 
Punjab’s 117 seats:
Congress: 62-71
AAP: 42-51
BJP: Sad: 4-7
Others: 0-2

UP's 403 seats

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BJP: 190-210   33%
SP: 110-130    27% (not sure is this SP or SP-INC)
BSP: 57-74      26%
Others: 8         14%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:18:50 AM
VDPAssociates exit polls UP, BJP majority

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BJP+          208
SP-INC        96
BSP             85
Others         14

Vote shares

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:21:19 AM
NewsX Uttarakhand exit polls, narrow win for BJP

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BJP       38   40%
INC      30    34%
Others   2     26%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:22:15 AM
CVoter Goa

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BJP    18   35.8%
INC    15   31.9%
AAP     2    12.8%
Others 5    19.5%

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:24:40 AM
News24 Chanakya (very heavy BJP house effect pollster) exit poll for Uttarakhand with massive BJP landslide


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BJP    57   43%
INC   15   34%

 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:25:50 AM
CVoter Manipur

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BJP    28    34.8%
INC    20   32.7%
Others 12  32.5%

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:28:56 AM
BJP's own UP's "exit poll" has

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BJP+     254
SP-INC  114
BSP         35


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:30:19 AM
NDTV poll of polls for Manipur so far

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BJP     28
INC     20
Others 12


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:31:42 AM
India TV Punjab exit poll has INC landslide

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:35:30 AM
Summery of UP exit polls so far.  Chankaya has a a huge BJP house effect

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:36:47 AM
NDTV poll of polls for Punjab so far

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INC      60
AAP      50
SAD-BJP  6
Others     1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:38:08 AM
VDPA exit poll for Uttarakhand - landslide for BJP

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BJP    49   43%
INC   16    36%
BSP     2     8%
Others 3   13%

Vote share

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:39:13 AM
VDPA exit poll for Goa

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BJP            21   40%
INC             9   29%
AAP             3   12%
Othres         7   19%

Vote share

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:40:19 AM
NDTV summery of exit polls for Uttarakhand so far

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:43:50 AM
News24-Chanakya Punjab exit polls


INC             54   32%
AAP             54   34%
SAD-BJP        9  22%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:44:56 AM
NDTV poll of polls for UP so far

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BJP        193
INC-SP   120
BSP          78


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:45:45 AM
NDTV poll of polls for Uttarakhand so far

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BJP           42
INC           24
Others        4


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:49:50 AM
IndiaTV-CVoter exit poll for UP

BJP getting 155 to 167 seats         33.4%
SP-INC       135 to 147 seats         32.3%
BSP              81 to 93 seats           24.3%
'Others          8 to 20 seats,           10.0%

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()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:53:05 AM
CVoter Punjab exit polls

()

SAD-BJP      9    21.4%
INC           45    36.3%
AAP          64     36.7%
Others        0      5.6%

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:58:25 AM
SP-INC blame game begins.  SP are now blaming INC for not doing well enough in the seats they were allocated and that SP made a mistake giving INC 105 seats.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:01:18 AM
VDPA exit polls for Punjab, AAP majority

()

AAP         70
INC         30
SAD-BJP  10
Others      2

Vote share and regional breakdown

()

()

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:03:22 AM
Updated NDTV Uttarakhand poll of polls

()

BJP           45
INC          21
Other         4


I personally would throw out the Chanakaya results from the average as too heavy BJP house effect pollster


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:05:13 AM
ABP exit polls for UP

()

BJP 164-176 SEATS
SP-INC -156-169 SEATS
BSP 60-72 SEATS


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:10:34 AM
India Today Axis exit poll for Uttarakhand

()

BJP       46-53  43%
INC       12-21  34%
BSP        1-4      8%
Others    1-2    15%

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:15:56 AM
NDTV updated poll of polls for Goa

()

BJP      17
INC     13
AAP      4
Others  6

We can also add

Gramener Exit Poll

()

BJP      19
INC     14
AAP      6
Others  1

Which gives us the average of

BJP      18
INC     14
AAP      3
Others  5


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:20:27 AM
CVoter Uttarakhand, tie between INC and BJP

()


INC    29-35   40.4%
BJP    29-35   40.5%
Others 2-9     19.2%

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()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:23:16 AM
NDTV poll of polls for Punjab

()

INC        55
AAP        54
SAD-BJP   8
Others     1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:29:22 AM
NDTV poll of polls for UP  

()

BJP       179
INC       136
BSP         77
Others    11

Of course this does not include very BJP friendly VDPA and Chanakya pollsters in there.  If they were then the BJP number will jump to 200 or so

Which looks a lot like my UP exit poll prediction

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:43:55 AM
Looks like advantage and most likely majority for BJP in Uttarakhand,  neck-to-neck between AAP and INC in Punjab, advantage BJP in UP with possible majority, neck-to-neck between BJP and INC in Manipur, and slight edge for BJP in Goa with non party/bloc with majority.

I suspect real results will be a lot worse for BJP in Goa and a lot worse for INC in  Uttarakhand.  BSP will most likely do better in UP than these exist polls suggest so if BJP does not win a majority we are looking at a BSP-BJP government in UP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:48:25 AM
Updated NDTV poll of polls for Manipur

()

INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10

Gramener exit poll has

()

INC           24
BJP           25
Others      11

Which gives us the same average

INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:52:49 AM
ABP exit poll for Uttarakhand

BJP      32-42  40%
INC     23-29  35%
Other    3-9    25%

If we add this to the NDTV running poll of polls average it gives an new "NDTV" average of

BJP          43
INC          23
Others       4


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 08:58:00 AM
Akhilesh Yadav does not rule out a SP-BSP government.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:23:45 AM
ABP Exit Poll for Punjab which is the most positive for SAD-BJP

SAD-BJP      (19-27 SEATS)
INC              (46-56 SEATS)
AAP             (36-46 SEATS)
OTHERS       (0-4 SEATS)

()

If we add this to the current NDTV average we derived an updated "NDTV" poll of polls average for Punjab of

INC        54
AAP        52
SAD-BJP 10
Others     1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:24:08 AM
ABP exit polls seems to be the most friendly to the incumbent parties in all states


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:31:16 AM
India Today-Axis exit poll for Goa

()

BJP    18-22    35%
INC     9-13    32%
AAP     0-2       8%
MAG    3-6      11%
Others 1-3     14%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 10:07:58 AM
India Today-Axis exit poll for Punjab

()

INC      62-71    36%
AAP      42-51    34%
SAD-BJP  4-7     17%
Others    0-2      13%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 10:09:19 AM
India Today-Axis exit poll for Manipur

()

INC    30-36
BJP     16-22
NPF      3-5
Others  3-6


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 10:16:18 AM
India Today-Axis exit poll for UP (big win for BJP)

()

BJP+    251-279    36%
INC-SP    88-112   30%
BSP        28-42      22%
Others     6-15       12%

If we add this to the NDTV running average we get a new "NDTV" poll of polls for UP of

BJP            195
SP-INC       129
BSP              69
Others           9


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 10:19:15 AM
News 24-Chanakya exit polls for UP (mega landslide for UP) - of course Chanakya has a mega house affect

BJP           285
SP-INC       88
BSP           27
Others        3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 11:03:03 AM
Updated NDTV poll of polls

()

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

If we remove Chanakya  then we have

SAD-BJP    11
INC           54
AAP            51
Others        1

So no real difference


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 12:14:48 PM
List of all exit polls for Uttarakhand (70)   

                        ABP-CSDS  News 24-Chanakya  India TV-C Voter  India News-MRC India Today- Axis
BJP                        34-42                      53              29-35            38                                46-53
Congress               23-29                      15               29-35            30                               12-21
Others                      3-9                         2               6                    2                                  2-6

Gramener Exit Poll has it at

()

BJP      38
INC     26
Others  6

Average would then be

BJP             42
INC             24
Others          4

Without Chanakya it would be

BJP             39
INC             26
Others          5


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 12:56:18 PM
List of exit polls for UP (403)   

                ABP-CSDS   Chanakya   Times Now  India News-MRC India TV-C Voters  India Today-Axis
BJP             164-176   285         190-210                 185                 155-167        251-279
BSP               60-72       27           57-74                    90                     81-93           28-42
SP-INC        156-169    88            110-130                120                 135-147         88-112
Others            2-6          3                  8                        8                      8-20             6-15

Gramener also came out with

()

BJP          193
SP-INC     133
BSP            67
Others       10

()

Average is

BJP          208
SP-INC     123
BSP            62
Others       10

If you remove Chanakya the average is

BJP          195
SP-INC     130
BSP            68
Others       10

Somewhat more pro-BJP than my UP exit poll prediction

Prediction of UP exit polls

BJP+         33%             180
SP-INC      31%             140
BSP           25%               60

Most likely the exit poll will underestimate BSP and the real result might end up being

BJP+         32%             170
SP-INC      30%             130
BSP           26%               80


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 07:36:02 PM
Summery of Punjab exit polls

()

Gramener also came out with

SAD-BJP      7
INC           53
AAP           57
Others        0

Average is

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

If you remove Chanakya the average is still

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1




Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:20:54 PM
Now, lets apply my algorithm on converting exit poll results to real results.

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) aline
4) Add more seats the winning side for TN because all exit polls always underestimate the seat swing from vote swings given the uniform nature of TN swings.

UP

Non-Chanakya exit poll average is

BJP+        195
SP-INC     130
BSP            68
Others       10

All things equal BJP outperformed pre-election polls when compared to exit polls.  For Times Now-VMR and VDPA BJP exit poll results slight under-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls but for ABP and Axis BJP outperformed their equivalent pre-elections polls.  A good compromise of my algorithm would be to take the average of the most pro-BJP Non-Chanakya exit poll and average it with the Non-Chanakya exit poll average which gives us

BJP+        228
SP-INC     114
BSP            51
Others       10

And since this is a defeat of an incumbent party we should add some seats to BJP+ which gives us

BJP+        233
SP-INC     110
BSP            50
Others       10


Uttarakhand

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

BJP             39
INC             26
Others          5

The performance of exit polls versus pre-election polls is mixed.   For ABP and  VDPA BJP exit poll results slight under-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls while for Axis BJP slightly over-performed their equivalent pre-elections polls so we can call it a wash so we should just use the exit polls average.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent party  we should add a few seats to BJP to give us a projection of

BJP             42
INC             23
Others          5


Punjab

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

SAD-BJP    10
INC           54
AAP           52
Others        1

Here it is really a INC vs AAP battle.  For VDPA and CSDS AAP outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls while for C-Voter Axis INC outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls so its is a wash.  The incumbent parties clearly has lost so some seats will be shifted from SAD-BJP and gives us  a projection of INC and AAP neck-to-neck

SAD-BJP      8
INC           55
AAP           53
Others        1


Goa

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

BJP      18
INC     14
AAP      3
Others  5
 
For CVoter BJP outperformed its equivalent pre-election polls while Axis BJP under-performed  its equivalent pre-election polls so again we have to call it a wash.  But since BJP falling below majority is a defeat of the incumbent party we have to shift a seat from BJP to INC to get to a hung assembly projection with BJP and INC neck-to-neck

BJP      17
INC     15
AAP      3
Others  5


Manipur

Non-Chanakya exit poll average would be

INC           26
BJP           24
Others      10

And since there are no pre-election polls we have  to go with this average which gives us INC and BJP neck-to-neck although I will move a seat from INC to BJP since the incumbent party is losing its majority

INC           25
BJP           25
Others      10

So if these projections are accurate we will have hung assemblies in Punjab, Goa and Manipur.

In UP it is quite cloudy.  It is clear BJP+ has the edge but if the exit polls vs pre-election polls does not give a clear signal if the trend is moving toward BJP.  The word from the ground seems to indicate it is so most likely the projection of BJP+ winning a solid majority is accurate.  

In  Uttarakhand it will be a solid BJP win.  INC will keep it sort of close and avoid a wipeout which looked like where it was headed in mid 2016.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:25:54 PM
If BJP wins UP and Uttarakhand as it looks like they will and gets the upper hand in Goa and Manipur then that might trigger massive realignments throughout India in response for 2019 LS elections.  In UP there might be a SP-BSP-INC-RLD mega alliance to take on BJP.  The Bihar Grand Alliance of RJD-JD(U)-INC will be here to stay.  In Maharashtra INC-NCP alliance will be formed with de facto tactical support by SHS in certain circumstances.   In Odisha where the BJP is making advances and pushing INC out of the way as the main challenger to BJD an alliance of ancient rivals of BJD and INC to take on BJP is likely.  In Karnataka INC-JD(S) alliance will most likely form to beat back the BJP 2018 assembly elections.  In WB it will be AITC-INC alliance that will take on BJP with the support of AAP.  Outside Punjab INC and AAP will most likely come to an understanding.  In 2019 it will be everyone to gang up against BJP. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 09:39:48 PM
ABP exit poll for UP which has

BJP 164-176 SEATS
SP-INC -156-169 SEATS
BSP 60-72 SEATS

Actually has results broken out by the 7 phases

Phase 1 results (15 districts-73 seats):
BJP  (33-39 SEATS)
SP (20-26 SEATS)
BSP (12-16 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2)

Phase 2 results(11 districts-67 seats)
BJP (15-21 SEATS)
SP (37- 43 SEATS)
BSP (7-11 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)
 
Phase 3 results(12 districts-69 seats)
BJP (27-33 SEATS)
SP (25-31 SEATS)
BSP (9-13 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 4 results(12 districts-53 seats)
BJP (27-33 SEATS)
SP (16-22 SEATS)
BSP (2-6 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 5 results(11 districts-52 seats)
BJP (14-20 SEATS)
SP (21-27 SEATS)
BSP (8-12 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 6 results(7 districts-49 seats)
BJP (18-24 SEATS)
SP (14-20 SEATS)
BSP (8-12 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)

Phase 7 results(7 districts-40 seats)
BJP (15-21 SEATS)
SP (9-15 SEATS)
BSP (6-8 SEATS)
OTHERS (0-2 SEATS)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 09, 2017, 10:09:51 PM
Sometimes winning is losing.

When SAD-BJP won an unprecedented re-election in 2012 Punjab that merely set them up for double anti-incumbency for 2017 where they have been reduced to a distant third with a seat count in single digits.  If AAP can consolidate its roots in Sikh areas SAD could see itself displaced as the alternative to INC in Sikh areas by AAP.

This is similar to when INC won an unprecedented third election in a row in 2008 Delhi  merely set itself up for a triple anti-incumbency in 2013 where it was reduced to 8 seats and a distant third to BJP and AAP.   And in 2015 INC was pushed to zero seats and Delhi has become a bipolar state dominated by AAP and BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 08:54:06 PM
Counting to start soon.  I will be watching the NDTV which has better coverage but I will use ABP for seat count reporting since it usually has the fastest count.  I do not like ABP party breakout.  I think in UP they should have RLD+, in Uttarakhand they should have BSP, in Goa they should have MAG+, and in Manipur they should have NPF. 


UP (0/403 counted)
SP-INC
BJP+
BSP
Others

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others




Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:31:06 PM
Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:46:49 PM
First leads in, all in UP

UP (3/403 counted)
SP-INC    1
BJP+       1
BSP         1
Others

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:48:25 PM
First leads in, all in UP

UP (8/403 counted)
SP-INC    2
BJP+       2
BSP         3
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:50:16 PM
UP (13/403 counted)
SP-INC    4
BJP+       4
BSP         4
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:54:06 PM
UP (26/403 counted)
SP-INC    9
BJP+      10
BSP         6
Others     1

Punjab(0/117 counted)
SAD-BJP
INC
AAP
Others

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Boston Bread on March 10, 2017, 09:57:23 PM
Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.
So is not too early to say BJP is underperforming in UP? Seems like they're not on track for a majority.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:58:05 PM
UP (48/403 counted)
SP-INC   14
BJP+      20
BSP       12
Others     2

Punjab(8/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   1
INC         6
AAP         1
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 09:59:10 PM
Early count, especially in UP, tend to favor BJP because the postal votes gets counted first.  So if BJP does not jump into the lead it will be in trouble.  Of course some TV channels might have taken this into account when they report leads to prevent a repeat of the 2015 Bihar reporting fiasco.
So is not too early to say BJP is underperforming in UP? Seems like they're not on track for a majority.

Yes, so far it is not looking great for BJP+ to win majority although they should be largest bloc.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:00:54 PM
Understand these are all leads and mostly postal

UP (61/403 counted)
SP-INC   20
BJP+      25
BSP       16
Others     2

Punjab(14/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   2
INC        10
AAP         2
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:04:31 PM
BJP surge in UP at the expense of BSP

UP (64/403 counted)
SP-INC   20
BJP+      31
BSP       10
Others     3

Punjab(18/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   2
INC        14
AAP         2
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:09:49 PM
BJP surge in UP continues.  Note the the seats that are reporting in Punjab are NOT from the area where the AAP surge is being expected.

UP (70/403 counted)
SP-INC   18
BJP+      39
BSP         9
Others     4

Punjab(20/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   2
INC        15
AAP         3
Others     0

Uttarakhand (0/70 counted)
INC
BJP
Others

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:14:17 PM
Looks like BJP heading to majority in UP although not a large one.

UP (101/403 counted)
SP-INC   26
BJP+      53
BSP       18
Others     4

Punjab(26/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   3
INC        17
AAP         6
Others     0

Uttarakhand (1/70 counted)
INC         0
BJP          1
Others     0

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:16:42 PM
UP (108/403 counted)
SP-INC   28
BJP+      57
BSP       19
Others     4

Punjab(29/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   3
INC        18
AAP         8
Others     0

Uttarakhand (1/70 counted)
INC         0
BJP          1
Others     0

Goa (0/40 counted)
INC
BJP
AAP
Others

Manipur (0/60 counted)
INC
TMC
BJP
Others


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:19:37 PM
BJP majority in UP getting bigger

UP (122/403 counted)
SP-INC   25
BJP+      75
BSP       17
Others     5

Punjab(31/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   4
INC        18
AAP         9
Others     0

Uttarakhand (9/70 counted)
INC         4
BJP          5
Others     0

Goa (2/40 counted)
INC          2
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (2/60 counted)
INC          1
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:23:39 PM
It seems BJP is headed to winning something like 250 seats in UP

UP (139/403 counted)
SP-INC   29
BJP+      84
BSP       21
Others     5

Punjab(33/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   5
INC        18
AAP        10
Others     0

Uttarakhand (9/70 counted)
INC         4
BJP          5
Others     0

Goa (2/40 counted)
INC          2
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (2/60 counted)
INC          1
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:26:49 PM
UP (160/403 counted)
SP-INC   33
BJP+    100
BSP       21
Others     6

Punjab(36/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   5
INC        19
AAP        12
Others     0

Uttarakhand (20/70 counted)
INC         8
BJP        12
Others     0

Goa (2/40 counted)
INC          2
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (4/60 counted)
INC          1
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:30:24 PM
UP (171/403 counted)
SP-INC   40
BJP+     99
BSP       25
Others     7

Punjab(40/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   5
INC        22
AAP        13
Others     0

Uttarakhand (20/70 counted)
INC         8
BJP        12
Others     0

Goa (2/40 counted)
INC          2
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (4/60 counted)
INC          1
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      2



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:34:15 PM
BJP+ headed toward around 260 seats or so based on where the results are coming in from

UP (186/403 counted)
SP-INC   40
BJP+    111
BSP       28
Others     7

Punjab(43/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   6
INC        23
AAP        14
Others     0

Uttarakhand (33/70 counted)
INC       10
BJP        22
Others     1

Goa (2/40 counted)
INC          2
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (5/60 counted)
INC          2
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:39:13 PM
UP (215/403 counted)
SP-INC   44
BJP+    138
BSP       26
Others     7

Punjab(43/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   7
INC        23
AAP        14
Others     0

Uttarakhand (46/70 counted)
INC       13
BJP        30
Others     3

Goa (3/40 counted)
INC          3
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (4/60 counted)
INC          3
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:41:38 PM
BJP+ on trend to win 270 or so in UP

UP (231/403 counted)
SP-INC   46
BJP+    150
BSP       28
Others     7

Punjab(46/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   8
INC        25
AAP        13
Others     0

Uttarakhand (52/70 counted)
INC       13
BJP        31
Others     3

Goa (3/40 counted)
INC          3
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (4/60 counted)
INC          3
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:45:07 PM

BJP+ on trend to win 265 or so in UP

UP (253/403 counted)
SP-INC   47
BJP+    166
BSP       30
Others     8

Punjab(46/117 counted)
SAD-BJP   8
INC        25
AAP        13
Others     0

Uttarakhand (64/70 counted)
INC       20
BJP        40
Others     4

Goa (3/40 counted)
INC          3
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (7/60 counted)
INC          3
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:49:25 PM
BJP+ on trend to win 270 or so in UP
SAD-BJP actually not doing that badly in Punjab

UP (266/403 counted)
SP-INC   42
BJP+    187
BSP       26
Others   11

Punjab(49/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  10
INC        25
AAP        13
Others     0

Uttarakhand (69/70 counted)
INC       20
BJP        45
Others     4

Goa (4/40 counted)
INC          4
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (10/60 counted)
INC          6
TMC         0
BJP          1
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 10:57:18 PM
BJP+ on trend to win 270 or so in UP
SAD-BJP outperforming in Punjab
INC doing pretty well in Goa and Manipur so far

UP (316/403 counted)
SP-INC   60
BJP+    207
BSP       37
Others   12

Punjab(62/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  14
INC        33
AAP        15
Others     0

Uttarakhand (69/70 counted)
INC       20
BJP        45
Others     4

Goa (4/40 counted)
INC          4
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (13/60 counted)
INC          7
TMC         0
BJP          3
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:03:03 PM
BJP+ still on trend to win 270 or so in UP

UP (323/403 counted)
SP-INC   60
BJP+    216
BSP       35
Others   12

Punjab(65/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  14
INC        35
AAP        15
Others     0

Uttarakhand (69/70 counted)
INC       20
BJP        45
Others     4

Goa (5/40 counted)
INC          5
BJP           0
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (13/60 counted)
INC          7
TMC         0
BJP          3
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:07:44 PM
ECI vote share so far (very early)

Punjab

INC        36.5%
AAP        24.8%
SAD-BJP  32.8%

UP

BJP+      41.1%
BSP        22.7%
SP-INC   28.2%
RLD         2.7%


Uttarakhand

BJP        40.4%
INC        36.2%
BSP         9.7%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:08:52 PM
UP (343/403 counted)
SP-INC   64
BJP+    238
BSP       31
Others   10

Punjab(84/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  18
INC        43
AAP        21
Others     2

Uttarakhand (69/70 counted)
INC       20
BJP        45
Others     4

Goa (10/40 counted)
INC          6
BJP           4
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (17/60 counted)
INC          8
TMC         0
BJP          6
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:15:01 PM
ECI vote share so far (very early)

Punjab

INC        36.1%
AAP        24.0%
SAD-BJP  33.2%

UP

BJP+      41.5%
BSP        22.3%
SP-INC   27.8%
RLD         2.4%


Uttarakhand

BJP        44.4%
INC        33.7%
BSP         8.0%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:17:57 PM
The SAD-BJP comeback is amazing in Punjab.  It is mostly SAD that is outperforming AAP.  INC is crushing BJP in Hindu areas.

BJP+ on route to win around 275 seats in UP.  Just amazing.

UP (364/403 counted)
SP-INC   70
BJP+    256
BSP       27
Others   11

Punjab(95/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  17
INC        55
AAP        21
Others     2

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC       17
BJP        49
Others     4

Goa (10/40 counted)
INC          6
BJP           4
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (20/60 counted)
INC        11
TMC         0
BJP          6
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:21:25 PM
ECI vote share so far (very early)

Goa

BJP         30.2%
INC         23.0%
MAG        20.4%
AAP          6.1%

Punjab

INC        37.4%
AAP        23.7%
SAD-BJP  32.2%

UP

BJP+      41.5%
BSP        22.2%
SP-INC   27.8%
RLD         2.4%


Uttarakhand

BJP        44.9%
INC        35.2%
BSP         6.8%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:30:04 PM
BJP+ on route to win around 280 seats in UP.
Uttarakhand is a BJP landslide as well

UP (379/403 counted)
SP-INC   70
BJP+    270
BSP       27
Others   12

Punjab(106/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  26
INC        55
AAP        22
Others     3

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC       15
BJP        51
Others     4

Goa (10/40 counted)
INC          6
BJP           4
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (23/60 counted)
INC        10
TMC         0
BJP         10
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:39:31 PM
ECI vote share so far (very early)

BJP+ vote share is above 41% which is amazing.

Goa

BJP         31.5%
INC         24.1%
MAG        18.3%
AAP          5.8%

Punjab

INC        37.3%
AAP        24.1%
SAD-BJP  31.5%

UP

BJP+      41.8%
BSP        22.4%
SP-INC   27.6%
RLD         2.2%


Uttarakhand

BJP        46.8%
INC        33.8%
BSP         7.2%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:44:22 PM
BJP+ on route to win around 285 seats in UP.
Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi futures are now quite cloudy.  Although these result would mean that if they not had formed an alliance the results would have been worse.  

UP (387/403 counted)
SP-INC   72
BJP+    276
BSP       25
Others   12

Punjab(107/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  24
INC        59
AAP        21
Others     3

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC       15
BJP        51
Others     4

Goa (12/40 counted)
INC          8
BJP           4
AAP          0
Others      0

Manipur (29/60 counted)
INC        12
TMC         0
BJP         14
Others      3


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:48:39 PM
UP (393/403 counted)
SP-INC   79
BJP+    279
BSP       29
Others    6

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  28
INC        65
AAP        24
Others     0

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC       15
BJP        51
Others     4

Goa (21/40 counted)
INC          9
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (32/60 counted)
INC        16
TMC         0
BJP         11
Others      5


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 10, 2017, 11:55:18 PM
ECI vote share so far (very early)

BJP+ vote share is above 41% in UP which is amazing.
AAP totally under-performed in Punjab


Goa

BJP         31.4%
INC         26.6%
MAG+      16.0%
AAP          5.8%

Punjab

INC        37.6%
AAP        24.0%
SAD-BJP  31.7%

UP

BJP+      41.9%
BSP        22.3%
SP-INC   27.7%
RLD         2.3%


Uttarakhand

BJP        45.3%
INC        33.4%
BSP         7.7%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 12:07:41 AM
With this type of majority in UP there will be pressure within BJP to push forward building the Ram Temple in Ayodhya

UP (401/403 counted)
SP-INC   79
BJP+    293
BSP       21
Others     8

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  29
INC        64
AAP        24
Others     0

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC       10
BJP        54
Others     6

Goa (23/40 counted)
INC         11
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (36/60 counted)
INC        16
TMC         0
BJP         13
Others      7


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 12:14:21 AM
INC ahead of BJP in Goa which is unexpected.

UP (402/403 counted)
SP-INC   81
BJP+    293
BSP       18
Others     9

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  27
INC        65
AAP        25
Others     0

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC         9
BJP        55
Others     6

Goa (23/40 counted)
INC         11
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (37/60 counted)
INC        17
TMC         0
BJP         13
Others      7


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 12:21:07 AM
ECI vote share so far

Goa

BJP         32.0%
INC         28.1%
MAG+      15.1%
AAP          5.8%

Punjab

INC        38.2%
AAP        23.5%
SAD-BJP  31.6%

UP

BJP+      41.7%
BSP        22.1%
SP-INC   27.8%
RLD         2.0%


Uttarakhand

BJP        44.8%
INC        34.1%
BSP         7.0%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 12:22:53 AM
UP (402/403 counted)
SP-INC   77
BJP+    296
BSP       21
Others     8

Punjab(117/117 counted)
SAD-BJP  24
INC        65
AAP        25
Others     3

Uttarakhand (70/70 counted)
INC        12
BJP        54
Others     4

Goa (23/40 counted)
INC         11
BJP           8
AAP          0
Others      4

Manipur (39/60 counted)
INC        18
TMC         0
BJP         13
Others      8


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 12:23:57 AM
Off too bed.  Results are clear in UP Punjab,Uttarakhand.  Manipur and Goa both are still not clear but it seems both will have INC having an edge but without majority.  AAP totally bombed in Goa which helped INC. MAG+ hurt BJP as expected.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on March 11, 2017, 03:27:14 AM
Congress Party is becoming Labour of the 1980s and now


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:27:28 AM
It time to report results using ECI we are mostly done with counting

Goa (36 out of 40 are completely done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.0%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP has alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.9%

MAG+    3            12.7%
 MAG     3            11.5%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.2%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed)

INC doing much better than any poll had projected.  INC much better position than BJP to form government.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:34:16 AM
Manipur (58 out of 60 reporting, 55 out of 58 completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       26           34.7%

AITC       1             1.5%

BJP       21            36.1%

NPF       4              7.5%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in other states)

NPP       4              5.3%   (NCP splinter, ally with BJP in other states)

LJP        1              2.7%   (ally with BJP at the national level)

Ind        1

Mosting going as expected with INC and BJP neck to neck with slight advantage for INC.  NPF most likely will go with BJP given the anti-Naga campaign INC ran.  NPP's position is unknown and most likely will determine who will form the government.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:39:08 AM
Punjab (116 of 117 completely done, 1 left to finish)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            25.0%
 AAP     20            23.8%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.3%
 BJP       3             5.3%

AAP completely under-performed with allowed SAD to do better  and as a result the anti-INC vote was split giving INC a clear victory.  SAD vote share impressively high given how they were left for dead by most exit polls.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:46:58 AM
UP  (377 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.0%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.2%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed)

BJP+ vote share completely way higher than expected with a massive seat count.  Vote share of candidates/parties outside of BJP+ SP-INC and BSP very low which shows the polarization of the electorate for Modi.  1977 JNP landslide was the last time such a massive victory of this scale was achieved in UP.




Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:50:30 AM
Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 completely done counting)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       56             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2

Mostly fits the pre-election narrative of a clear BJP win but with BJP but with a more dramatic consolidation of the anti-INC vote toward BJP than expected. 



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 09:01:13 AM
Updated standings

Goa (39 out of 40 are completely done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.4%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP has alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.5%

MAG+    3            12.5%
 MAG     3            11.3%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.3%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed, 1 is MAG rebel)


Manipur (59 out of 60 reporting, 57 out of 59 completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       27           34.9%

AITC       1             1.4%

BJP       21            36.2%

NPF       4              7.3%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in Nagaland and national level)

NPP       4              5.1%   (NCP splinter, on and off ally with BJP)

LJP+      1              6.1%
 LJP       1              2.7%   (ally with BJP in Bihar and at the national level)
 NEIDP   0              3.4%

Ind        1



Punjab (116 of 117 completely done, 1 left to finish)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            25.0%
 AAP     20            23.8%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.3%
 BJP       3             5.3%



UP  (402 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.1%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.3%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

PECP      0            0.3%

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed)



Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 completely done counting)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       57             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2                               (both are INC rebels)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 09:05:43 AM
The reasons INC is able to win the most number of seats in Manipur even though its vote share falls below BJP is because INC pretty much ran an campaign to polarize the majority  Meitei population against the Naga minorities.  As a result INC pretty much is getting zero in the rural Naga areas but make up for it in victories in Meitei urban areas around Impal.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 09:46:36 AM
In UP the famous "wife vs wife vs rapist" election in Amethi ended in victory for first wife of INC leader Sanjay Singh, Garima Singh of the BJP

Garima Singh (BJP)  64,226   (former wife of INC leader and Raja of Amethi Sanjay Singh)
Gayatri Prasad (SP)  59,161   (incumbant SP minister accused of taking part in a gang rape of a
                                          minor and currently on the run from the law)
Ram Ji (BSP)           30,175
Ameeta Singh (INC)   20,291   (current wife of INC leader  and Raja of Amethi Sanjay Singh, former
                                          MLA of Amethi for BJP and then INC)

This is one of around 10 seats SP and INC failed to agree on a common candidate.  If SP-INC joined forces here then the BJP most likely could be beaten back.  When compared to 2012 when incumbent INC Ameeta Singh was beaten by  Gayatri Prasad of the SP, most of the 2012 INC vote went to BJP, mostly out of the sympathy factor for how Garima Singh was dumped by Sanjay Singh for Ameeta Singh.  Note that Ameeta Singh was married to one Syed Modi back in the 1980s who was murdered in an unsolved mystery back in 1988.  Ameeta Singh was known to be having an affair with Sanjay Singh at that time and it was suspected that Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh colluded to murder Syed Modi.  During the investigation and trial of the murder Syed Modi,  Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh denied having an affair.  As soon as  Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh were acquitted  Sanjay Singh dumped his wife Garima Singh and married  Ameeta Singh. This election is a interesting turn on the drama of Sanjay Singh and his wives.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 09:53:26 AM
Updated standings. We are pretty much done.  Note vote shares include NOTA so the real vote share would be slightly higher

Goa (All 40 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       17           28.4%
GFP        3            3.5%    (GFP who is a INC splinter that had allied with BJP as INC rebel
                                      independents back in 2012 has tactical alliance with INC in some seats)

NCP        1            2.3%

BJP      13            32.5%

MAG+    3            12.5%
 MAG     3            11.3%
 GSM     0              1.2%

AAP       0              6.3%

Ind.       3                        (1 is INC backed, 1 is BJP backed, 1 is MAG rebel)


Manipur (All 60 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       28           35.1%

AITC       1             1.4%

BJP       21            36.3%

NPF       4              7.2%   (Naga party, ally with BJP in Nagaland and national level)

NPP       4              5.1%   (NCP splinter, on and off ally with BJP)

LJP+      1              5.9%
 LJP       1              2.5%   (ally with BJP in Bihar and at the national level)
 NEIDP   0              3.4%   (made up of a bunch of AITC rebels plus some old MSCP politicans,
                                        can be viewed as an AITC splinter)

Ind        1                        (all things equal this independent tends to have a pro-INC tilt)



Punjab (All 117 are completely done)

          Seats      Vote share
INC       77           38.5%

AAP+    22            24.9%
 AAP     20            23.7%
 LIF       2              1.2%

SAD+   18            30.6%
 SAD     15            25.2%
 BJP       3             5.4%



UP  (402 out of 403 completely counted, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP+    325           41.4%
 BJP     312           39.7%
 AD         9            1.0%
 SBSP      4            0.7%

SP+       54          28.0%
 SP        47          21.8%
 INC        7           6.2%

BSP       19          22.2%

RLD        1            1.8%

NISHAD  1            0.6%    (NISHAD caste based party)

PECP      0            0.3%

AIMIM    0            0.2%

Ind        3                        (2 of them are SP backed, 1 is a SP rebel)



Uttarakhand (69 out of 70 done, rest leads)

          Seats      Vote share
BJP       57             46.5%

INC       11            33.5%
 
BSP        0              7.0%

Ind.       2                               (both are INC rebels)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 10:48:03 AM
NDTV did a comparison in UP between seats count relative to both 2012 and 2014 LS results and showed that UP 2017 is really a repeat of 2014 LS BJP landslide.  SP-INC alliance totally failed as it merely repeated the 2014 results despite an alliance.

               Seats  vs 2012  vs 2014
BJP+         325      +277        -12
SP+           56       -198          -1
BSP           19         -61        +10
Others         3         -18         +3

Same chart for Uttarakhand also showed that for Uttarakhand is really a repeat of 2014 LS BJP landslide with a slight swing away from BJP

               Seats  vs 2012  vs 2014
BJP            57       +26        -6
INC            11       -21        +4
BSP             0       -3            0
Others         2        -2          +2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 10:55:01 AM
In UP it seems given how low the BSP vote share is AND the fact that PECP and AIMIM vote share is so low indicates that SP-INC did manage to consolidate Muslims and most likely Yadavs for SP-INC. Main problem is they failed to win much of anything else and totally lost the Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC vote to BJP.  The BJP also seems to not have lost much of the Jat vote to RLD.  In retrospect it is not clear even a SP-BSP-INC-RLD alliance would have beaten BJP-AD-SBSP this time around.  2019 LS it might be different as the anti-incumbency factor will work against BJP versus 2014 and 2017.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 10:57:52 AM
In Manipur, on paper BJP with 21, NPF 4, NPP 4, and LJP with 1 gets the pan-NDA bloc to 30 out of 60.  In reality INC with 28 can rope in AITC and the independent and break or bribe NPP to help INC to form the government.  Of course Manipur is dependent on central government subsidies so the BJP plan there should be to wait for INC to form the government, fissures form within the INC factions and then break INC with bribes and split the INC there to then help BJP form the government sometime in the near future. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 11:01:10 AM
In Goa, INC+ with 18 would just need to rope in GFP and NCP and should be able to form the government.   In response MAG will most likely re-ally with BJP to form the opposition bloc.  GFP is now the key factor on who would form the government.  They will get their pound of flesh no matter what.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 11:07:21 AM
In Goa, the BJP CM Laxmikant Parsekar was defeated in his own seat by the INC candidate.  BJP has indicated that it will try to rope in MAG and GFP to form a government.  MAG is easy while proto-GFP allied with BJP back in 2012 but had a falling out so that would be harder.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 11, 2017, 11:48:22 AM
So essentially a repeat of 2014 but at a state level.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:18:25 PM
It Manipur it seems like BJP is cobbling up a non-INC majority.  NPF, NPP, and IJP have all indicated they will support a non-INC ministry.  That adds up to 30 out of 60.  They really have to rope in AITC and the independent as well because I assume the BJP government would want it own Speaker and the Speaker could not vote on most issues so any majority has to have 32 members in its bloc just to make sure.  With INC at 28 that is pretty much every non-INC MLA. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:29:43 PM
Some NDTV analysis of UP

It points out that vote shares in UP looks very similar in 2014 and 2017
()

It also point out that BJP slightly over performed 2014 in 2017 once we take into account of the combined vote share of INC and SP in 2014
()

It also claims that outside of Muslims, the vote share for Dalits, Upper Castes, Jats, Yadavs and non-Yadav OBCs were similar across three blocs and as a result "Caste no longer matters in UP politics"
()

I am not sure I buy this one.  Not sure where they got these numbers, especially for SC (Dalits) and Yadavs.  I find it hard to believe that BJP+ beat SP-INC for Yadav vote just like I really doubt BSP can win 22% of the Yadav vote.  Likewise I find it hard to believe that SP-INC can win 26% of the SC(Dalit vote.)  If someone told me that BJP+ would win only 44% of the Upper Caste vote then I would say BJP+ is lost for sure.  

Also this chart tells me that BJP+ won around 43% of the non-Muslim vote which is 80% of the UP voting population.  But then for the total results to make sense and for BJP+ to win 42% of the vote overall then BJP+ would have to win around 38%???!!! of the Muslim vote.

Again, these numbers make no sense.    Most likely from the same sources that did the exit polls which were so off.  The entire NDTV narrative seems wrong and based on bogus numbers for their analysis.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:39:30 PM
BSP's Mayawati claims that the UP election were rigged by the BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:45:16 PM
Punjab results map

()

In Hindu areas, AAP is very weak and it was INC vs BJP with INC sweeping almost all the seats.  In Sikh areas it is a 3 way battle between AAP, SAD, and INC with a slight edge for INC, followed by AAP and then SAD.

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:48:00 PM
So essentially a repeat of 2014 but at a state level.

Yes, in UP and Uttarakhand.  In Punjab both AAP and SAD-BJP lost ground from 2014 to INC.  In Goa INC gain ground relative to BJP since 2014 while in Manipur INC lost ground to BJP since 2014 (Manipur was one of the very few states where INC still beat NDA in 2014.)  In other words, the incumbent party lost ground across the board since 2014.  If so then one can argue that in UP and Uttarakhand there has been some ebbing of the Modi wave since there has been 3 extra years of anti-incumbency built up against SP in UP and INC in  Uttarakhand.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 06:58:36 PM
On Uttarakhand seat, Lohaghat, is most likely headed for a re-count.  It ended up being

BJP     26468   47.9%
INC     26320   47.6%

For now it counts as a BJP win but recount might yield a different result.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on March 11, 2017, 07:09:13 PM
On Uttarakhand seat, Lohaghat, is most likely headed for a re-count.  It ended up being

BJP     26468   47.9%
INC     26320   47.6%

For now it counts as a BJP win but recount might yield a different result.

would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:10:35 PM
In Manipur it seems even as BJP is lining up NPF NPP and LJP to back it to get to 21+4+4+1=30 seats, INC seems also has AITC (which has an anti-BJP tilt nationally) to back it plus the one lone independent (Ashab Uddin) to back INC which gives it 28+1+1=30.  So we are headed for a 30 vs 30 showdown.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 11, 2017, 07:21:35 PM
would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party

I would say no Its main incompetence is that it did not allow local INC leaders to rise up to become mass leaders but instead insist on  the charisma of the apex leadership (AKA the Gandhi family) to fetch the votes.  When that worked, like Nehru, Indira, Rajiv pre-1989, and recently Sonia, it gave good results.  Main problem is that it worked too well over the last few decades so when their main leader, Rahul, does not come off as a mass leader, it gets beaten by the BJP which with Modi copied the old INC formula. 

When one asks voters in UP and Uttarakhand who they will vote say, they often say Modi and not BJP.  The BJP organization in many ways has not recovered from the 1999-2012 period of decline but for now Modi is making up for it.  Just like by the late 1960s the INC machine in UP was quickly falling into decline but still managed to win in the early 1970s due to Indira Gandhi.

All things equal INC is still fairly united even if faction ridden at the local level.  It also capable of making some good decisions, like letting Punjab INC run its campaign without interference from INC high command.  Despite defeats the INC organization is still mainly united in backing Rahul Gandhi as opposed to the situation in the UK LAB party where the PLP seems to despise Corybn.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 02:10:26 PM
UP results map

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 02:13:04 PM
Manipur results map

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Blue - INC (28)
Orange - BJP (21)
Dark Purple - NPF (4)
Light Purple - NPP (4)
Green - AITC (1)
Purple - pro-INC Bengali Ind. (1)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 02:13:30 PM
Goa results map

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 02:16:11 PM
Uttarakhand results

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Orange - BJP
Blue - INC
Purple - INC rebel


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 04:32:12 PM
It seems even though INC will be the largest party in Goa and Manipur, BJP is winning the post-election battle for CM.

In Goa, BJP(13) roped in the pro-BJP Independent(1), MAG (3), GFP(3), and critically pro-INC independent (1).  That adds up to 22 to INC(17) and NCP(1) which adds up to 18.  Of if INC is given the first shot at forming the government INC could lure some from this pro-BJP bloc to come to its side.

In Manipur it is INC(28)+AITC(1)+Pro-INC independent(1) = 30 vs BJP(21)+NPF(4)+NPP(4)+LJP(1) = 30.  But one INC MLA seems to have defected to BJP.  He will lose his seat but that would make it BJP Bloc 30 to INC bloc 29.  The INC to BJP defector MLA will then be removed from his seat for defecting.  But there will be a by-election where he will be running under the BJP banner and most likely win againist what INC runs against him.  Of course if INC is given the first shot at forming government the INC might engineer defections of its own. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 12, 2017, 04:47:09 PM
Bloomberg did a somewhat superficial analysis of what 2019 LS election might hold given various state level results.
 
It points that a core 1/3 of the states form most of the seats available in LS and that the BJP’s stunning victory in 2014 was shaped by a subset of this core group which are 12 states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Assam, Haryana and Delhi.
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It then compared the LS implied assembly results to the real assembly election results in 7 states
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And also calculated the implied LS seat count based on the assembly elections
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And shows the decline in the BJP since 2014 in implied LS seats
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It has some non-core BJP states and implied LS election results
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The main conclusion is that BJP should be en route in 2019 to win the elections but with reduced majority along with NDA.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2017, 08:25:55 PM
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Points out that out of 134 seats with high Muslim concentration BJP won 105 (and AD won 1)
                    out of 144 seats with high Dalit concentration BJP won 112 (and AD won 2)
                    out of 148 seats which were highly rural BJP won 103 (and AD won 7)

BJP+ won 325 out of 403 for a strike rate of 80.6%
For high Muslim concentrations BJP+ won 106 out of 134 for a strike rate of 79.1%
For high Dalit concentration BJP+ won 114 out of 144 for a strike rate of 79.2%
For high rural concentration BJP+ won 110 out of 148 for a strike rate of 74.3%

So despite BJP+ being weaker with Muslim and Dalit voters in districts with high concentration of Muslims and Dalits merely triggered counter-polarization of Upper Caste and OBC voters in favor of BJP+ leading to a strike rate that is fairly average when one would think BJP+ would do worse.  It is in rural districts that BJP+ had a lower strike rate since BJP+ does better in urban districts.  Here identity is not an issue so there was no urban counter-polarization in favor of BJP+ in these rural districts leading to a lower strike rate.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2017, 08:29:11 PM
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Number of criminals as a percentage of the MLAs went down in UP Punjab and Goa but went up in Uttarakhand.  For UP this had a lot to do with less SP and BSP MLAs than in 2012.  OBC and Dalit parties tend to have higher percentage of criminals as its candidates than Upper Caste parties like BJP and INC.  In Uttarakhand the BJP had to import a lot of local leaders (many ex-INC MLAs) in districts where is was traditionally weak.  Many of these local leaders also have criminal records.  BJP's landslide there washed into with the tide a lot of criminal MLAs.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 13, 2017, 08:38:12 PM
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With UP,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa now will be having BJP CM, BJP (orange) now dominate the local scene in India.  BJP allies (light orange) TDP rules AP, NPF rules Nagaland, and PDP rules J&K.  INC is now down to Punjab, HP (up for re-election later this year and likely to go BJP as well), Karnataka (up for re-election in 2018 and unless INC-JD(S) form an alliance will go BJP as well), Meghalaya and Mizoram
 (both for re-election in 2018 and one that BJP will target but most likely will fail).

The BJP surge in  Manipur makes clear on thing:  BJP is now a pan-Indian party just like INC was and now in danger of falling out of being one.  Only in the 1977-1979 with the JNP for a short time did a non-INC party achieve this feat.

The only states, for now, that are out of reach of BJP are TN (AIADMK and DMK duopoly), Kerela (BJP have significant presence but hard to break the INC-Left Front duopoly) , WB (dominated by AITC) and Tripura (dominated by the Left front).  But in WB on the long run BJP might emerge as the main rival to AITC and in Tripura BJP be able to break in and become the main rival to Left Front.

Places like Bihar BJP is in strong contention versus JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance while in Telegana BJP is battling INC to be the main rival to TRS,  and in Oriya BJP is fast becoming the main rival to BJD as opposed to INC.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2017, 09:31:01 AM
Yogi Adityanath, 44 year old Mahant (or priest) of a Hindu temple and BJP MP, is named BJP CM of UP.

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He is a Rajput and founder of the radical Hindu youth group Hindu Yuva Vahini and comes from the Far Hindu Right of the BJP.  I guess what the BJP is counting on is the mass appeal of Adityanath and as a non-Brahman, could try to marry the Upper Caste and non-Yadav OBC wings of the UP BJP even at the expense of a more radical image.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on March 18, 2017, 09:43:34 AM
This guy is a complete religious nutjob & a radical guy & has a history of making anti-Muslim statements. I hope he doesn't try to resurrect that Ram Mandir stuff which will once again lead to mass communal riots.

One of the worst possible choices ever made for the CM - Is there any one who is more of a radical religious nutjob ? I think the BJP had a host of moderate decent leaders way better than this guy. The mask of development is falling off & naked brute communal-ism & Hindu Majoritarian politics are coming to fore-front.

Very disappointing - Complete against the mandate where Modi got big Muslim votes. I don't think BJP would have won if Yogi guy was projected as the CM candidate.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2017, 10:32:16 AM
A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%

BJP+ held on to the Upper Caste vote and won the battle of non-Yadav OBC while gaining a good part of the Dalit vote even though there were signs that the Dalit vote was coming home to BSP.  SP-INC has been reduced to the Yadav-Muslim bloc (almost 20% of the 28% vote share came from Yadav-Muslims) while BSP failed to gain ground in Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Muslim votes despite running large number of candidates in  communities.  BSP hopes of sweeping BJP in Non-Jatav Dailt also failed.

What was decisive was the non-Yadav OBC vote went very strongly for BJP.  SP was formed in 1992 as THE OBC party but has lost the narrative this election leading to a collapse of its old OBC base outside of Yadavs.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2017, 10:38:53 AM
This guy is a complete religious nutjob & a radical guy & has a history of making anti-Muslim statements. I hope he doesn't try to resurrect that Ram Mandir stuff which will once again lead to mass communal riots.

One of the worst possible choices ever made for the CM - Is there any one who is more of a radical religious nutjob ? I think the BJP had a host of moderate decent leaders way better than this guy. The mask of development is falling off & naked brute communal-ism & Hindu Majoritarian politics are coming to fore-front.

Very disappointing - Complete against the mandate where Modi got big Muslim votes. I don't think BJP would have won if Yogi guy was projected as the CM candidate.

Well, at this stage the BJP has no excuse not to construct the Ram temple in Ayodhya.  Deep down they rather have the issue to extract votes than actually build the temple.  Previous excuses were "well, BJP has an UP government but BJP is not in power at the center" (1993 and 1997) then "well, BJP is in the power at the center but it is a coalition government and BJP allies does not support the temple" (1999), then "yes, we have a BJP majority at the center but there is no BJP government in UP" (2014).

Now there is a BJP majority at the center AND UP.  The BJP base will pretty much now demand the temple be built and there are no real excuses left other than the real reason "we do not want the internal and international blow back on building the temple and we just want to issue to get your votes."


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Shadows on March 18, 2017, 11:01:21 AM
The Mandir stuff is sub judice in the courts & any act of construction is illegal & a crime (violation of laws).

Just to add, apart from his ridiculous religiously bigoted statements against Muslims, I found this in Google -

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/yogi-adityanaths-men-telling-hindus-to-rape-dead-muslim-women-is-beyond-shocking-230679.html

(This man has to not just the most radical pick but a complete threat to multi-cultural-ism, freedom ore religion & secularism)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 18, 2017, 11:27:24 AM
The Mandir stuff is sub judice in the courts & any act of construction is illegal & a crime (violation of laws).

Just to add, apart from his ridiculous religiously bigoted statements against Muslims, I found this in Google -

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/yogi-adityanaths-men-telling-hindus-to-rape-dead-muslim-women-is-beyond-shocking-230679.html

(This man has to not just the most radical pick but a complete threat to multi-cultural-ism, freedom ore religion & secularism)

Yeah, you are right.  The BJP has been running on the Ram Temple for so long I forgot that SC has to weigh in and give out a verdict. 

On the speech on of rape dead muslim does remind one of one thing the BJP ran on  in UP which is "anti-Romeo squads" which I thought was a joke but I guess it worked.  The "anti-Romeo squads" on the surface is about protecting women from sexual predators but the overtone of make it clear it is really about preventing inter-communal marriages.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2017, 02:12:01 PM
Trivendra Singh Rawat is the new Uttarakhand CM.  While he has a long career in the BJP half his cabinet are ex-INC MLAs as of just a couple of years ago.  The BJP in Uttarakhand deserves the nickname "Modi's Congress."  Of course this trend is part of a bigger story of how BJP is displacing INC as the pan-India natural party of government.  Local elites as a result are gravitating toward the BJP and it is particularly pronounced in Uttarakhand.   The new BJP CM of Manipur N. Biren Singh was in INC and was a minister in several INC Manipur governments.  He only joined the BJP in Oct 2016.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on March 19, 2017, 02:22:35 PM
would you say that the INC is more incomeptent then Corybn's Labour Party

I would say no Its main incompetence is that it did not allow local INC leaders to rise up to become mass leaders but instead insist on  the charisma of the apex leadership (AKA the Gandhi family) to fetch the votes.  When that worked, like Nehru, Indira, Rajiv pre-1989, and recently Sonia, it gave good results.  Main problem is that it worked too well over the last few decades so when their main leader, Rahul, does not come off as a mass leader, it gets beaten by the BJP which with Modi copied the old INC formula. 

When one asks voters in UP and Uttarakhand who they will vote say, they often say Modi and not BJP.  The BJP organization in many ways has not recovered from the 1999-2012 period of decline but for now Modi is making up for it.  Just like by the late 1960s the INC machine in UP was quickly falling into decline but still managed to win in the early 1970s due to Indira Gandhi.

All things equal INC is still fairly united even if faction ridden at the local level.  It also capable of making some good decisions, like letting Punjab INC run its campaign without interference from INC high command.  Despite defeats the INC organization is still mainly united in backing Rahul Gandhi as opposed to the situation in the UK LAB party where the PLP seems to despise Corybn.


so would you say its more like the Republicans in the 1980s who as a party still hadnt recovered from the 1968-1980 days but they won mainly cause of Reagan popularity more then the popularity of the party itself.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 19, 2017, 02:45:40 PM
There are many theories why Adityanath was made CM of UP.  The conventional theory is that Modi-Shah is going to double down on Hindu nationalism for 2019 LS elections and Adityanath is the man to do it.  Another theory is that Adityanath was not the choice of Modi-Shah who would have prefered someone with a more moderate and developmentalist image and that this was an anti-Modi coup by UP BJP.  Yet another theory holds that Adityanath was going to be a problem for any BJP CM to handle so you might as well put him in charge hoping the holding office can tame him and keep his radical faction under control. 

I personally think it is the final theory.  It reminds me of a story back in the early 1990s when in a remote part of UP (or was it MP? I forgot) a local bandit leader ran for MLA of said district on the platform of law and order.  He was in a unique position to deliver on that promise since he and his gang was responsible for the vast majority of violent crime in that district.   He went on to win and I believe did deliver on his promise to reduce violent crime as he and his organization move more into graft and racketeering for revenue as opposed to just out and out banditry after he moved into office.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 23, 2017, 07:07:21 PM
In TN, for the by-election for Jayalalitha's seat AIADMK formally split into Sasikala's faction which will be called AIADMK(Amma) and Panneerselvam's faction will be called AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).

Amma means mother in Tamil which was what Jayalalitha's supporters called her while Puratchi Thalaivi means revolutionary leader which is also what Jayalalitha wanted to be called early in her leadership of AIADMK.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on March 25, 2017, 07:27:41 AM
Indiaspend.org  points out that INC is now in better shape than in the 2014 LS elections by comparing vote share and win rate in seats contested in assembly elections versus 2014 LS

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They do point out part of it is because of alliances it struck (Bihar TN UP).  What is not pointed out is that even in places where INC broke alliance since 2014 (Jharkhand with JMM and J&K with NC) the INC also did better since they were able to disconnect themselves from an unpopular incumbent. 

Also even though in UP, Assam, Kerela, and Maharastra the BJP vote held up from 2014 in other states they ebbed somewhat (Bihar, Punjab) and other places fell a lot (J&K, Jharkhand, WB, TN) which helped INC as well.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2017, 06:56:25 PM
There will be a by-poll in TN 4/12 for the seat left vacant due to the death of AIADMK CM Jayalalitha.  AIADMK Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) will run Sasikala's nephew since he is de facto running AIADMK Sasikala faction while Sasikala is in jail.  AIADMK Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) will run a the ex-MLA that won in this district in 1991 on the AIADMK ticket.  DMK and DMDK are also running candidates.

In 2016 TN assembly election the results where

AIADMK    56.8%  (Jayalalitha was the AIADMK candidate)
DMK         33.7%
VCK           2.5%  (VCK ran here as part of the DMDK+ front)
PMK           1.8%
BJP            1.7%

In theory the split in AIADMK should mean that DMK is in the running and if not favored to win the seat.  But so far it seems DMK is running a low key campaign in this by-election and not really working in a way to go all out to win unlike the two AIADMK factions where both are going all out to win.  The word on the ground is that DMK is working for AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) to win.  If DMK wins the by-election it might rally AIADMK to united around the stronger of the two AIADMK factions (namely AIADMK Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)).  But if AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) wins it might trigger greater defections from  AIADMK(Amma) to AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) as the latter is seen to be the "real AIADMK" from a popular support point of view.  Such a flood of defections could then lead to a downfall of the AIADMK(Amma) government leading to fresh elections in which DMK-INC would win and return a DMK-INC government to power.  

Of course DMK is taking a big risk with this apparent strategy.  A defeat of the DMK by a large margin in the by-election could weaken Stalin's authority in DMK at a time when DMK is going through a leadership transition from Karunanidhi to Stalin.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 02, 2017, 07:13:22 PM
A visit to the AIADMK website http://aiadmk.com/?q=en shows a clear change from before Jayalalitha's deah. 

As I pointed out a couple of years ago

Look at the AIADMK website

http://aiadmk.com/

Notice how every section has a picture of Jayalalithaa and every picture of a person is Jayalalithaa.

The website before Jayalalitha's death pretty much has nothing but pictures of Jayalalitha.

Now the website has pictures of Sasikala, Jayalalitha, MGR, and Annadurai.  It shows that the Sasikala faction is in clear control of all AIADMK party assets and that Sasikala is trying to build up her authority by not just referring to Jayalalitha but also to MGR and  Annadurai.  Before Sasikala was sent to jail she paid a visit to MGR's Mausoleum is a signal of her strategy.  By just referring to Jayalalitha makes Sasikala just the puppet of Jayalalitha, even in absentia while referring to all AIADMK leaders of the past makes Sasikala seem like the next generation leader of AIADMK, even though she is in jail.  This strategy makes sense but is very cynical since back in the 1980s before Sasikala and her husband became friends with  Jayalalitha they were known as DMK partisans and backed Karunanidhi over his rival MGR.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2017, 08:41:57 AM
In the by-election in TN 4/12 the AIADMK vote would be split 3 ways between  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma), Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and Jayalalitha's neice Deepa Jayakumar who formed her outfit and is running herself.

Most media polls has AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) ahead of AIADMK(Amma) although it is not clear if that is enough to over take DMK.  The winner of this by-election would be in a position to reunify the AIADMK factions.  AIADMK(Amma) which has control of TN state resources are said to put in massive resources to win. There are talks of vote buying at a rate of up to $80 per vote which is a massive rate given the level of average income in TN.  It is also clear that BJP prefers AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and there are talk of the central government agencies intervening to help AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) by opening corruption investigations of key AIADMK(Amma) kingpins, especially in the district. 

If media surveys are to believed then it is a neck-to-neck race between AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) and DMK with the risk of AIADMK(Amma) voting buying robbing necessary AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) votes for it to win.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 08, 2017, 09:00:53 AM
4/23 will be the Delhi Municipal MCD elections.  BJP won the last two in 2007 and 2012.  On paper AAP should win like they did in 2015 Delhi assembly elections.  But with the national momentum on BJP's side and expected anti-incumbency to weigh down AAP the BJP as a solid shot at coming out ahead.  What would be interesting to see the INC vote share to see if there is some recovery of the INC vote base which mostly went over to the AAP in 2015.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on April 11, 2017, 02:22:04 AM
just saw the results from Uttar Pradesh

:(


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 11, 2017, 07:17:48 AM
In TN ECI has cancelled the RK Nagar by-election for now due to discovery of large sums of cash by  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) that already has been distributed for vote buying.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 14, 2017, 10:43:15 AM
Latest round of by-elections shows the BJP surge continues even as INC stabilizes itself.

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BJP gained 2 seats. One from AAP in Delhi and one from BSP in Rajasthan.

The rule of thumb for assembly by-elections in India is that the ruling party tends to gain as voters would vote for a MLA that is more likely to get the district resources.

In HP BJP held its seat even as the INC is the ruling party implies a BJP victory later this year in the HP assembly election.  BJP's margin is reduced but that is mostly because of a BJP rebel.  The district, Bhoranj has the results when compared to 2012

2012 result
BJP          59.5%
INC         36.8%

2017 by-election
BJP          52.2%
INC          34.5%
BJP rebel    9.9%



In Karnataka where the INC is the ruling party INC held its two seats against a BJP surge.  JD(S) did not run candidates and as a result the INC victory margin increased from 2013 which shows that in the Karnataka elections in 2018 if the INC can form an alliance with JD(S) they could potentially hold off BJP.

In Gundlupet when compared to 2013 has

2013
INC        45.4%
KJP        40.7%  (KJP is a BJP splinter that has since merged back into BJP)
BSP         3.7%
JD(S)       2.5%
BJP          1.2%

2017 by-election
INC        51.6%
BJP        45.4%

In Nanjangud when compared to 2013 it is

2013
INC        36.0%
JD(S)      29.7%
KJP         20.1% (KJP is a BJP splinter that has since merged back into BJP)
BJP          5.0%

2017 by-election
INC       55.2%
BJP        41.5%



In MP where BJP is the ruling party the BJP and INC both held their seats.  BSP did not run candidates which seems to have benefited BJP. This means that INC has a shot at making solid gains in 2018 against BJP since BSP is likely to run then.

In Ater when compared to 2013 it is

2013
INC      40.5%
BJP      30.3%
BSP      17.7%
BSD       5.9%  (a rival Dalit based party of the BSP)

2017 by-election
INC      48.0%
BJP      47.3%

In  Bandhavgarh when compared to 2013 it is

2013
BJP       48.3%
INC       34.9%
BSP        5.2%
GPP        5.0%

2017 by-election
BJP       55.0%
INC       36.1%
GPP        4.0%



In Rajasthan a BSP MLA defected to the ruling BJP after being convicted in a murder case and ran his wife on the BJP ticket and winning over INC.  While this shows the strength of the BJP the shift of the BSP base over to BJP in this district means that this result cannot be generalized to Rajasthan.  Rajasthan tends to be quite elastic and INC does have a chance of coming back in 2018.

The result in Dholpur when compared to 2013 is

2013
BSP      38.4%
INC      31.3%
BJP       27.2%

2017 by-election
BJP      61.8%
INC      35.7%



In WB the ruling AITC held its seat over a surging BJP.  Key fact here is BJP has vaulted over CPM and INC to come in a strong second.  Although historically BJP does very well in by-elections in WB but them does not do so when in the general election.  The INC vote clearly went to AITC to beat back BJP.  AITC might have no choice by to ally with INC and vice versa to beat back BJP in the future.

In Kanthi Dakshin when compared to 2016 it is

2016
AITC     54.4%
CPM      34.6%  (INC backed CPM here)
BJP        8.9%

2017 by-election
AITC     55.9%
BJP       31.0%
CPM      10.2%
INC        1.3%



In Jharkhand where BJP is the ruling party JMM with INC support beat back the BJP to hold its seat.  This shows that in 2019 JMM-INC has a shot at beating BJP.

The result in  Littipara when compared to 2014 is

2014
JMM     45.9%
BJP      28.8%
INC       8.5%
JVM       6.0%
CPM       3.8%

2017 by-election
JMM     46.4%
BJP      37.2%
JVM       6.5%



In Delhi where AAP is the ruling party comes the shocker.  BJP wins an AAP seat with INC came in second and AAP coming in a weak third place.  This seems to show that Delhi politics is reverting to a pre-2013 structure.   The district, Rajouri Garden, voted the following way in 2013 2015 and now

2013
SAD (backed by BJP)   41.4%
INC                          30.5%
AAP                          16.9%
NCP                           5.7%

2015
AAP                         46.6%
SAD(backed by BJP)   38.0%
INC                         12.0%

2017 by election
BJP                         52.0%
INC                         33.2%
AAP                         13.2%

Alarm bells should be going off in AAP at such a result with AAP as the ruling party.



In Assam the ruling BJP held its seat with a smaller margin against INC.  The Mising tribal SGS did not run this time and the Mising tribal vote seems to be split between BJP and INC. This seems to show that INC is not finished in Assam and can make a comeback in 2021.

The result in Dhemaji when compared to 2016 is

2016
BJP              41.2%
INC              29.9%
SGS             13.0%  (a Mising tribal party)
BJP rebel        9.8%

2017 by-election
BJP             50.1%
INC             44.0%
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2017, 03:06:39 PM
All things equal the delay in the by-election in TN works to the advantage of the BJP.  Any chance of an early AIADMK reunification would be one of the two AIADMK factions wins decisively and as a result the other AIADMK faction merges into the winning faction.   Keeping the two AIADMK factions split works to the advantage of the BJP to expand its influence into the AIADMK Upper Caste and upper OBC vote base and also allows the BJP to pull AIADMK Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) into its orbit.

In other developments two PWF (DMDK-MDMK-VCK-CPI-CPM-TMC alliance) parties, VCK and CPI, are looking to leave PWF and join up with DMK-INC alliance.  It is said CPM is looking into such a move as well.  It seems that DMK is expecting a mid-term election soon and is looking to sign up more alliance partners.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2017, 03:15:58 PM
Even though it is clear that BJP did very well in this latest round of assembly elections one should not forget that in addition to the popularity of Modi this is partly because the 2009-2012 cycle of assembly elections were very bad for the BJP so the BJP had the advantage of running in 2013-2017 assembly elections EITHER with anti-incumbency at the state level in its favor OR anti-incumbency at the federal level OR BOTH.  When the BJP had to run in a assembly election  where the incumbent ruling alliance was the NDA WHILE the BJP ruled the center (Goa, Punjab) then NDA lost ground.

In the elections coming up it is clear that BJP will win HP but Gujarat will be the real test.  Gujarat now has an incumbent BJP government with a BJP government at the federal level.    Last time the BJP was in this situation was in 2002 when Modi who was put in to save the BJP from certain defeat.  Then came the Gujarat riots which help Modi pull off a victory.  Now the BJP will have to run for re-election without Modi leading them directly, no riots, and with double anti-incumbency weight down on them.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2017, 03:24:24 PM
What this round of assembly elections does tell us is that Modi will most likely lead the BJP to another victory in 2019 so in that sense Modi is a clear winner.  Another more subtle winner of all this, I believe, is Rahul Gandhi.  Even though INC was trounced in UP and Uttarakhand, the very nature of the BJP surge means that all regional parties will look to coalesce around an anti-BJP front in 2019.  Before this round of assembly elections, candidates for the leadership of this front ranges from the obvious INC to SP to BSP to AAP.  This round of assembly elections pretty much crushed SP BSP and AAP and put them out of the running.  AITC could be such a center but with the BJP surging in WB AITC most likly will have its hands full dealing with the BJP in WB than try to lead a national front. 

So by default INC under Rahul Gandhi will lead this possible uber grand alliance in 2019.  It is clear that such an alliance will fail to defeat Modi in 2019 just like a similar alliance failed to defeat Indira Gandhi in 1971.  But if Rahul Gandhi can keep INC in the game and in one piece then 2024 is beginning to look pretty good for Rahul Gandhi and the INC when anti-incumbency will catch up with Modi and Rahul Gandhi would have had years to build up and work with a anti-BJP national alliance.  The real threat to Rahul Gandhi was never the BJP but other anti-BJP rivals such as SP BSP AAP or even AITC that could end up being the anti-BJP Pan-India party.  As a result of this round of election this threat is gone.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 15, 2017, 03:45:00 PM
There are talks of various parities across the political spectrum looking to join and form an anti-BJP uber grand alliance.  Both SP and BSP are not making noises that they are looking to join such a front, mostly led by INC.  What would such a front look like.  In key states I think it will look like this:

UP:  SP-BSP-INC-RLD vs BJP-AD-SBSP
Bihar: JD(U)-RJD-INC vs BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM
Haryana: INC-INLD vs BJP
Punjab: INC-AAP vs BJP-SAD
Delhi: INC-AAP vs BJP-SAD
AP: YSRCP-INC vs TDP-BJP
Assam: INC-AIUDF vs BJP-AGP-BPF
J&K: JKN-INC vs PDP-BJP
Jharkhand: JMM-INC-JVM vs BJP-AJSU
Karnataka: INC-JD(S) vs BJP
Kerela : INC+ vs BJP-BDJS vs CPM+ (three way battle, CPM+ and INC+ tactical voting)
Maharashtra: INC-NCP vs BJP vs SHS (three way battle, INC-NCP and SHS tactical voting)
Orissa: BJD-INC vs BJP
TN: DMK-INC vs BJP-AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) vs AIADMK(Amma) (three way battle)
Telangana: INC-YSRCP vs BJP-TDP vs TRS (three way battle, INC-YSRCP and TRS tactical voting)
WB: AITC-INC vs BJP vs CPM+ (three way battle, AITC-INC and CPM+  tactical voting)
MP: INC-BSP vs BJP
Uttarakhand: INC-BSP-UKD vs BJP
Goa: INC-AAP vs BJP-MGP
Rajasthan: INC-BSP vs BJP
Gujarat: INC-NCP vs BJP

A lot of these possible alliance will be hard to pull off, like getting AAP to align with INC in Delhi Goa and Punjab, SP-BSP forming an alliance in UP, BSP accepting INC's lead in MP Rajasthan and  Uttarakhand, BJD and INC coming together in Orissa (although this one seems more and more likely), JD(S) and INC forming an alliance in  Karnataka, JMM and JVM forming an alliance in Jharkhand.   But even if these alliance were formed most likely BJP would still win in 2019.  These alliance will, in 2019, be dry runs for the real battle in 2024.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 17, 2017, 07:12:26 AM
Drama never ends in action packed TN.  It seems that the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) itself is headed for a split which could see Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran ousted from the leadership of AIADMK(Amma).

Just to recap, AIADMK split into rival factions led by Jayalalitha aide Sasikala
()

and Former TN CM Panneerselvam
()

Most of the AIADMK MLAs went with  Sasikala who was then convicted of corruption and put in jail.  Before she went to jail, she installed Palaniswami as TN CM
()

and also installed her nephew TTV Dinakaran as Deputy General Secretary
()

TTV Dinakaran was expelled by Jayalalitha back in 2011 from the AIADMK for influence peddling using his links to his aunt  Sasikala.  As Sasikala wwas being put in jail she re-inducted TTV Dinakaran into AIADMK and put him in charge of AIADMK(Amma).

The Sasikala clan has never been popular with the public in TN and in the  RK Nagar by-election (the seat opened up due to the death of  TN CM Jayalalitha) TTV Dinakaran ran as the AIADMK(Amma) candidate.  Neither the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) nor Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) was awarded the AIADMK election symbol by ECI.  Then AIADMK(Amma) was caught in vote buying and ECI has canceled the by-election.

There was rising fear in AIADMK(Amma) that  TTV Dinakaran  will drag down the electoral prospects of AIADMK(Amma).  As a result elements of AIADMK(Amma) started to coalesce around TN CM Palaniswami try to push out TTV Dinakaran and Sasikala (who is in jail) with him.  The Palaniswami faction has been in talks with the Panneerselvam faction and both seems to have agreed that once the Palaniswami faction can push out TTV Dinakaran and Sasikala out of the leadership of AIADMK(Amma)  then AIADMK(Amma) and Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma)
and reunify with Palaniswami  as TN CM and  Panneerselvam as Secretary General of a reunited AIADMK.

It seems that over the weekend partisans of Palaniswami gave TTV Dinakaran and ultimatum that he and   Sasikala  has to resign from the AIADMK(Amma) leadership within two days or they will be pushed out.  It also seems that TTV Dinakaran counter-threatened the Palaniswami partisans that if they tried to do that he will break AIADMK(Amma) and take the 40-50 MLAs loyal to Sasikala to form a separate party with the result being the AIADMK(Amma) government falling and new elections be held which presumably Sasikala AIADMK and Panneerselvam-Palaniswami AIADMK will both lose to DMK.  TTV Dinakaran also allegedly threatened to take his new party an ally with DMK to form a government.  If this were to take place BJP will come in to support  Panneerselvam-Palaniswami AIADMK while DMK-INC will come in to support TTV Dinakaran.

Then this morning news came that ECI have arrested agents of TTV Dinakaran for trying to bribe ECI officials (with around $10 million) to grant AIADMK(Amma) the old AIADMK election symbol.  It seems TTV Dinakaran is likely to be be arrested soon and that might be the end of the short reign of the  Sasikala clan over AIADMK.

It seems the end-game would be a reunification of AIADMK which I guess is bad news for every other political player in TN.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2017, 08:52:44 AM
For upcoming Delhi MCD elections on 4/23 ABP News-C Voter  poll has BJP ahead

()

BJP   36%
AAP  26%
INC  17%

With regional breakdown

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2017, 09:11:34 AM
In TN, the Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) puppet CM Palaniswami strikes against the Sasikala clan.  It seems a large majority of the AIADMK(Amma) has sided with Palaniswami  to demand that Sasikala's newphew and standin TTV Dinakaran removed himself from the leadership of AIADMK(Amma) and that the  Sasikala  clan stay out of AIADMK politics given TTV Dinakaran's legal problems.  It seems only around 10 MLAs for now are backing TTV Dinakaran who seems to have meekly decided to step aside, for now.

What seems to be driving  Palaniswami  and the AIADMK(Amma) MLAs is that they know the BJP is out to get  Sasikala clan and that because of that various central agencies are looking into corruption cases against   AIADMK(Amma) MLAs.  They figure if they boot the Sasikala clan they they can get BJP's support to run TN over the Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).  They also need the AIADMK election symbol which is frozen due to the split of the Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma).

The  Palaniswami  faction's position is now that the main demand Panneerselvam faction has made so far, removal of Sasikala clan, has been meet so there should now be a reunification of the two factions  under the leadership of Palaniswami  as TN CM and Panneerselvam  as, say, general secretary.  It seems things are not that simple.  Panneerselvam is now demanding that he be reinstated as CM AND take over as general secretary of AIADMK. 

If reunification talks break down this might lead to a revival of the  Sasikala clan where many of the AIADMK(Amma) MLA own their seats to. 

If AIADMK is reunified without the  Sasikala clan they it is certain it will align with BJP.  It is possible PMK will join this alliance as well as MDMK.  The politics in TN will become

AIADMK-PMK-BJP-MDMK vs DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM

It is not clear where DMDK, TMC.  TMC is currently aligned with Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) but might balk at being on the same front as BJP and end up with DMK-INC.  DMDK most likely will go with DMK-INC as well.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 19, 2017, 09:22:11 AM
The AIADMK website now has no content as battles continues on who is the leader of AIADMK

All AIADMK.com has now is this

()

Which is picture of Anna, MGR and Jayalalitha.  Everyone in AIADMK can agree on these 3 as their heroes.  Everything else is up in the air.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 23, 2017, 07:29:20 AM
A back-of-the-envelope calculation on the likely distribution of votes by community in UP.  The exit polls are all over the place on this so this is my best guess.

The current estimate of votes share by bloc are

BJP+    41.78%
SP+     28.25% (more like 28.5% once we add in SP backed independents)
BSP      22.40%
            
from there we can infer the breakdown by community

                        Share of
                      Electorate       BJP+       SP+       BSP                    
Upper Caste         20%           70%        15%      10%
Yadav                  10%          25%         65%       5%
Non-Yadav OBC     30%          60%         15%      15%
Jatav                   10%          15%          5%      75%
Non-Jatav Dalit     10%           35%        10%      50%
Muslims               20%          10%         65%      15%

BJP+ held on to the Upper Caste vote and won the battle of non-Yadav OBC while gaining a good part of the Dalit vote even though there were signs that the Dalit vote was coming home to BSP.  SP-INC has been reduced to the Yadav-Muslim bloc (almost 20% of the 28% vote share came from Yadav-Muslims) while BSP failed to gain ground in Upper Caste, non-Yadav OBC and Muslim votes despite running large number of candidates in  communities.  BSP hopes of sweeping BJP in Non-Jatav Dailt also failed.

What was decisive was the non-Yadav OBC vote went very strongly for BJP.  SP was formed in 1992 as THE OBC party but has lost the narrative this election leading to a collapse of its old OBC base outside of Yadavs.

Today’s Chanakya's did an analysis of the UP BJP+ vote by community and came out with

Upper Caste    63%
OBC               61%
Dalits             32%
Yadavs            25%
Muslims          10%

which is pretty close to my wild guess of

Upper Caste    70%
OBC               60%
Dalits             25%  (average of Jatav  and non-Jatav Dalits)
Yadavs            25%
Muslims          10%

So it seems I overestimated the BJP+ vote for Upper Castes and underestimated the BJP+ vote for Dalits.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2017, 11:37:06 AM
Delhi MCD exit polls

()

BJP will get over 200 seats  in all 3 exit polls, INC 22-26 seats or so in all 3 exit, while AAP between 24 and 29 seats.

()

In 2012 it was   BJP 138 INC 77 and Others 57

In terms of vote share it seems that it will be something like

BJP+   43%
AAP     24%
INC     23%

when compared to 2013 2014 and 2015

                          2013      2014LS     2015

AAP                     29.7%     33.1%    54.3%
BJP+SAD             34.2%     46.6%    32.7%
INC                      24.7%    15.2%      9.7%

It seems INC back up to 2013 levels while BJP stronger and AAP weaker relative to 2013


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 24, 2017, 11:50:44 AM
The talks between the two rival AIADMK factions (Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)  and Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma)) are yet to really start.  Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) had demanded that the Sasikala  clan are expelled from AIADMK(Amma) as a precondition for talks.  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) say that the Sasikala and clan has "stepped aside" for the talks to take place which the Panneerselvam faction claim is not enough since it is just a ruse.  

The Panneerselvam faction are demanding that Panneerselvam becomes CM again AND the General Secretary of AIADMK.  While Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) (now perhaps should be called Palaniswami faction) CM Palaniswami is willing to cede the position of General Secretary to Panneerselvam but no the CM position.  The reason why Panneerselvam faction with only around 10 MLAs are willing to be so demanding is that another split in the   Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) between  Palaniswami  and the  Sasikala clan where another 10 more MLA defect if the Sasikala clan break off with their own supporters then the government will fall.  And even if it does not local TN elections in June will find neither AIADMK factions with the AIADMK election symbol which highlights the chaos in AIADMK right now would lead to wipe-out of  AIADMK(Amma) in those elections.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2017, 06:16:53 AM
Delhi MCD election results out.  BJP won in a landslide although not by the margins projected by exit polls.  This is mostly a vote against AAP with the AAP vote from 2015 Assembly election splintering toward both BJP and INC.  BJP is still below their 2014 LS peak but is higher than 2013 Assembly elections.  INC did make a recovery and shows that it is a viable party in New Delhi even if it is #3.

The results are
     

                Seats           Diff from               Diff from
                               2015 Assembly         2014 LS
BJP            182            +155                      -24
AAP             56             -192                      -16
INC             30              +28                      +29
BSP              3                 +3                       +3
SP                1                 +1                       +1
INLD            1                 +1                       +1
Ind.             6                 +6                       +6


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 26, 2017, 06:39:21 AM
Looks like vote share for MCD Delhi are around

BJP     36.6%
AAP     26.0%
INC     21.3%
BSP      4.1%

whereas last few Delhi elections were

                          2013      2014LS     2015

AAP                     29.7%     33.1%    54.3%
BJP+SAD             34.2%     46.6%    32.7%
INC                      24.7%    15.2%      9.7%
BSP                       5.4%       1.2%     1.3%

Once we fact in the fact that the independent vote is a lot higher in MCD elections INC and BSP has mostly got back to 2013 levels.  BJP vote share is somewhat better than 2013 while AAP is somewhat worse.  From a vote share point of view this election looks like what 2013 assembly was suppose to look like (a BJP win) before a last minute AAP surge.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on April 28, 2017, 10:55:40 AM
Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) Deputy General Secretary of TTV Dinakaran has been arrested.  TN CM Palaniswami has pretty much order banners of Sasikala to be removed from AIADMK headquarters

()

So now Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) really should be now called Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) as the Sasikala clan's reign comes to an end.

Talks between  Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) and  Panneerselvam faction AIADMK(Puratchi Thalaivi Amma) continues and are still stuck on the issue on who will be CM,  Palaniswami or Panneerselvam.  Of course Sasikala clan still have their supporters within Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma)  and when the time is right might split Palaniswami  faction AIADMK(Amma) down the middle.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on May 05, 2017, 12:30:42 PM
India Prez elections coming up in July.  Thanks to the BJP landslide in UP, BJP with the backing of NDA is close to a majority in the Prez electoral college.

()

NDA has around 527,000 electoral votes while anti-BJP parties (UPA plus various anti-BJP parties) has around 434,000 electoral votes.

Neutral parties (AIADMK, BJD, TRS) have around 119,000 electoral votes  and independents around 15,000 electoral votes. 

Looking at each state MLAs breakdown has
()

So the battle for BJP is the capture some of the neutral parities votes or hope for an anti-BJP split.  The battle for UPA is to consolidate the anti-BJP bloc and win over all of the neutral parties.

Among the neutral parities historically all three are pro-NDA.  But now in Odisha BJD now sees the BJP as the main rival as opposed to INC and in Telegana now TRS see BJP-TDP as the main rival as opposed to INC so both are more likely to join up with UPA.  AIADMK which is now split will most likely go with NDA especially given the DMK-INC alliance in TN.

If so then NDA has a clear edge unless the UPA/Anti-BJP alliance can get an existing NDA party to defect.  SHS is the most likely defector given how bad the BJP-SHS relationship is right now.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2017, 10:49:44 AM
It seems both AIADMK factions, TRS, and YSRCP have all backed NDA for the upcoming Presidential race.  This all but assures that NDA will win.  SHS might defect but even that is not enough to derail the BJP as long as the BJP comes up with a quality candidate.

TRS and YSRCP going with NDA is a bit of a surprise.  It is clear that BJP will go after TRS in Telangana in 2019 so it is not clear why TRS is backing NDA.  Perhaps it is trying to dislodge TDP as the BJP ally in Telangana in 2019 seeing that BJP might be unbeatable in 2019.  Of course the political space that BJP will demand will be something I doubt TRS will be willing to pay.   YSRCP backing BJP is a surprise but its motives are clear.  YSRCP, seeing  that BJP will most likely win in 2019 is hoping to get BJP to dump TDP and take on YSRCP as its ally in AP.  Since BJP is fairly small in AP and with TDP determined to prevent the BJP from expanding in AP a BJP-YSRCP deal is possible.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2017, 10:53:10 AM
With the political chaos in TN due to the continued civil war within the ruling AIADMK it seems another political explosion is ready to take place.  Film superstar Rajinikanth is said to be entering into politics soon.  Rajinikanth always had a pro-BJP pro-AIADMK political tilt but never came out openly for either party.  It is possible he might form a new party to try to displace the AIADMK or take over as leader of AIADMK or become the face of BJP by being the TN BJP leader.  Time will tell soon.

Rajinikanth
()



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on June 07, 2017, 08:03:23 PM
In UP it seems that SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and BSP president Mayawati with both attend an August rally in Patna organized by RJD.  One more step in the creation of an uber grand alliance of SP-BSP-INC in UP in 2019.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on June 07, 2017, 08:10:37 PM
In TN it seems TTV Dinakaran is making a comeback within Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma) as his support seems to swelling relative to TN CM Palaniswami since he was let out on bail.  It seems AIADMK is headed toward having 3 factions, one around former CM Panneerselvam, one around current CM Palaniswami, and one around  Sasikala faction AIADMK(Amma)  Deputy General Secretary TTV Dinakaran.  It seems merge talks between Palaniswami and Palaniswami are dragging out forever and as times drags on the AIADMK MLAs are growing restless and some are converging around TTV Dinakaran who as left for lead a few weeks ago. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on June 22, 2017, 09:11:02 PM
NDA nominates Ram BJP ex-MP and now Governor of Bihar Nath Kovind for Prez while UPA nominates ex-Speaker Meira Kumar.  Both are Dalits so the race will become Dalit vs Dalit.  Of course NDA has the clear advantage with all AIADMK factions, YSRCP and BJD backing NDA.  BSP was going to back Kovind due to him being a Dailt but is going back to UPA once Meira Kumar was nominated.   NDA will win, question is by how much.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on June 25, 2017, 08:23:44 AM
Senior Gujarat INC leader and former CM Shankersinh Vaghela is threatening to leave INC ahead of the assembly elections in the fall for failing to give him free reign in selecting candidates and running the campaign

()

Shankersinh Vaghela used to be in the BJP was was now PM Narenda Modi's mentor back in the early 1990s.  Modi then backed Shankersinh Vaghela's opponents in the BJP in the mid 1990s leading to  Shankersinh Vaghela bolting from BJP and forming a BJP rebel party RJP.  RJP then formed an alliance with INC and formed the government in Gujarat with  Shankersinh Vaghela as CM in 1996.  After that  Shankersinh Vaghela and INC had a falling out triggering early 1998 where BJP defeated INC and RJP which ran seperately.   Then  Shankersinh Vaghela merged RJP into INC (if he only did it before the 1998 elections he could have been CM again).  After that he became the senior INC leader in Gujarat.  There has been news that for Modi to make sure that INC is crushed in the fall elections in Gujarat that the BJP has been trying to lure  Shankersinh Vaghela to come back to BJP.  It seems those rumors might be true.
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 01, 2017, 08:41:05 AM
NDA clearly winning the battle on the Prez race.  Non-NDA parities such as AIADMK are backing NDA.
 Opposition parities that should be aligned with UPA for survival reasons such BJD, TRS, INLD and YRSCP are going with NDA as well.  And JD(U) seems to be defecting from UPA to back NDA.  Also NDA managed to get SHS to back the NDA candidate.  Only relative gain for UPA is the fact that AAP could end up backing UPA.  It seems that the JD(U) is backing NDA just to signal RJD that it has other options as power sharing in Bihar between JD(U) and RJD are running into problems as time goes on.

The new unified GST tax regime went give today despite great misgivings by the business community.  As longs the roll-out works out well the next few months I do not see and alternative to a NDA victory in 2019.  The real battle now is who is going to be able to lead a united opposition in 2024 when NDA will run into a possible anti-incumbency mood.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 17, 2017, 06:17:24 AM
Prez election in progress with MP and MLA voting.  This election will be historic as this will be the first time someone from the Hindu Right,Nath Kovind,  will be elected President.  Only mystery now is the scale of his victory.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 20, 2017, 11:30:33 AM
Ram Nath Kovind  elected president with 65.65% of the vote.  Back in 2012 UPA's Mukherjee won with 69.31% of the vote. 

Voting mostly went as expected along party lines.  BJP managing to rope in pro-NDA or potentially pro-NDA opposition parties like BJD, TRS, YSRCP, AIADMK (all 3 factions), and AINRC. NDA managed to keep all NDA parties including SHS.  SP BSP JS(S) AAP BSP AITC did go with UPA. 

In Tripura, AITC voted NDA to protest AITC-Left Front alliance to back UPA.  In Jharkhand it seems JVM split their vote between UPA and NDA.   Significant parts of the Goa INC voted NDA given the current ongoing INC civil war there. 

()

For UPA to keep it even sort of close in 2019 it has to somehow keep the SP-BSP alliance going in UP with INC support, keep the RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance going, build an alliance with AAP in New Delhi, rope in JD(S) in Karnataka, build a grand JMM-INC-JVM alliance in Jharkhand, rope in BJD in Orissa, rope in YSRCP in AP, rope in TRS in Telengana, and hope TN turns into a 3 way between between AIADMK vs BJP vs DMK-INC.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 21, 2017, 11:34:59 AM
INC Shankersinh Vaghela  who was the former CM of Gujarat and former political mentor to Modi has quit INC.  It seems he will not join BJP but lead an anti-INC anti-BJP front.  This pretty much removes any chance of INC beating BJP in Gujarat.  I suspect INC will still keep it close as anti-incumbency will weight in on BJP


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 26, 2017, 06:22:13 PM
Dramatic change in Bihar.   After dumping BJP in 2013 and taking support of INC before forming a RJD-JD(U)-INC alliance in 2015, Nitish Kumar had a falling out with RJD and resigns of CM of Bihar.  He then got the support of BJP and will now swear in as CM of Bihar leading a JD(U)-BJP government which returns to the status quo of 2013.  The reason for this is in theory corruption charges of Lulu Yadav's son and Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav.  In practice this seems to be a calculation that on Nithsh Kumar's part that he is not likely to be picked as the PM candidate for the anti-BJP opposition in 2019 and that BJP will almost certainly win in 2019. 

Nitish Kumar is taking a risk with this flip flop that the anti-BJP faction of JD(U) might split just like the pro-BJP faction split in 2015 forming HAM which allied with BJP.  Nitish Kumar's hand might get weaker and weaker as time goes on.  In 2013 JD(U) was the dominate partner relative to the BJP.  Now the roles will eventually be reversed.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2017, 10:51:50 AM
Senior JD(U) leader and former President of JD(U) Sharad Yadav
()

Seems to be upset at Nitish Kumar rapid move to ally with BJP.  It is said he is meeting with INC.  JD(U) might be headed for another split.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2017, 11:22:26 AM
There is talk that BJP might offer Sharad Yadav a position in the cabinet to try to buy his faction's support for the new JD(U)-BJP alliance.

A floor test for the new government is tomorrow.  In theory it is

Pro Nitish Kumar
JD(U)           71
BJP              53
LJP               2
RLSP             2
HAM             1
Ind               3   (all BJP rebels but will back JD(U)-BJP to get a share of power)
---------------------------------
                132

What is funny is LJP RLSP and HAM are all JD(U) splinter parties.  Now all of them plus JD(U) are back in the same alliance.

Anti Nitish Kumar
RJD            80
INC            27
CPI(ML)(L)   3
--------------------------------
               110

There is on JD(U) rebel whose position is not clear but I think JD(U)-BJP should be able to buy him off.  One RJD MLA has indicated that he will defect and vote for Nitish Kumar.  

So that will give us 134 vs 109 in favor of Nitish Kumar.

There will be a rebellion of some sort of an unknown size.  There are 5 Muslim and 11 Yadav JD(U) MLAs. If RJD can get all of them to defect then it will be   118 vs 125 leading to Nitish Kumar's defeat.  So now the battle is how many of these possible 16 JD(U) defectors can RJD cobble up, potentially with the help of Sharad Yadav.  The next 24 hours will be critical.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 27, 2017, 12:12:35 PM
The JD(U) alliance is a huge boon for the BJP.  Aside from taking over a large state and pulling JD(U) into the BJP alliance there are 9 JD(U) MPs in the Upper House.  One of them has come out openly against the BJP alliance.  But if the other 8 MPs fall in line then the NDA is pretty close getting an absolute majority in the Upper House and the anti-BJP bloc will lose all leverage over Modi.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on July 28, 2017, 05:56:08 AM
Nitish Kumar wins 131-108. Despite talks of defections on both sides there seems very little of it. Mostly gone on party line vote.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 03, 2017, 08:39:53 PM
Ever since Shankersinh Vaghela quit Gujarat INC there have been several INC MLAs that quit the INC.  With an Upper House election coming up for Gujarat the INC is fearful that more defections would mean their candidate will not be elected.  So the remaining INC MLAs were flown to a resort in Karnataka and kept under de facto house arrest to prevent more defections (just  like the AIADMK civil war situation.)  It seems less and less likely the INC can win the Gujarat assembly elections. Of course in many ways the BJP should be in trouble in Gujarat given the Patel and Dalit protests and vote-getter Modi in Delhi.  In many ways that is the reason the BJP is investing so much into destabilizing the INC since a well organized INC could very well win later this year.  As it is now INC might even gain a few seats but BJP will most likely win re-election.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 03, 2017, 08:42:50 PM
The situation in JD(U) is interesting.   There is now pretty much two JD(U) factions.  The Bihar state JD(U) led by Kitish Kumar are allied with BJP which is part of his government.  The JD(U) in the Upper House mostly led by anti-BJP Sharad Yadav are staying in the JD(U) for now but voting with INC against BJP bills.  NDA will gain a majority in the Upper House eventually over time but getting there quickly by adding in the JD(U) members looks like did not work.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 05, 2017, 08:01:34 AM
Vice President election today.  Method of election same as for President except for only MP votes instead of MP and MLAs.  NDA's Venkaiah Naidu should have an easy win over UPA's Gopalkrishna Gandhi.  What would be interesting is how much of the non-UPA non-NDA votes go to Gandhi as in the Prez race they mostly went NDA.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 05, 2017, 09:34:46 AM
NDA's Naidu 516 Gandhi 244.  11 Invalid 14 did not vote.

516 for Naidu sounds about right.  If we go with NDA (340 Lower 86 Upper) AIADMK (37 Lower 13 Upper) BJD (20 Lower 8 Upper) TRS (11 Lower 3 Upper) YSRCP (9 Lower 1 Upper) plus 8 Nominated Upper House MP one gets 536.   Then there are independents (3 Lower and 6 Upper) that some might have voted NDA.  Given 25 MPs did not vote it seem NDA got the same voting bloc as the Prez elections with a few defections. 

Unlike the Prez elections where the UPA bloc clearly had defectors to the NDA candidate, this time around there were more NDA defections.  Part of it is JD(U) which is now part of NDA did promise to back Gandhi before joining up with NDA and I am sure some still voted Gandhi.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 06, 2017, 12:50:19 PM
NDA's Naidu 516 Gandhi 244.  11 Invalid 14 did not vote.

516 for Naidu sounds about right.  If we go with NDA (340 Lower 86 Upper) AIADMK (37 Lower 13 Upper) BJD (20 Lower 8 Upper) TRS (11 Lower 3 Upper) YSRCP (9 Lower 1 Upper) plus 8 Nominated Upper House MP one gets 536.   Then there are independents (3 Lower and 6 Upper) that some might have voted NDA.  Given 25 MPs did not vote it seem NDA got the same voting bloc as the Prez elections with a few defections. 

Unlike the Prez elections where the UPA bloc clearly had defectors to the NDA candidate, this time around there were more NDA defections.  Part of it is JD(U) which is now part of NDA did promise to back Gandhi before joining up with NDA and I am sure some still voted Gandhi.

One correction.  It seems JD(U) and BJD both did project their intention to vote for Gandhi which in theory removed 40 votes away from Naidu relative to the Prez election.  It seems in reality a good percentage of both delegations did vote for  Naidu to get to the result we ended up having.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 07:03:19 AM
Vote in Gujarat assembly for Upper House MPs today. 3 up for election.   The election math works like this: There are 182 MLAs.  INC had 57 MLA but 6 resigned (3 of them to join BJP) leaving INC with 51 so we are down to 176 MLAs.  So to win a candidate has to win 45 votes. In theory INC can win its 1 seat.  But Vaghela's INC rebel faction has 7 members.  BJP nominated 3 candidates 2 from BJP and 1 candidate close to  Vaghela to get his support.   So what INC had done is to put its 44 loyal MLAs in a resort in Karnataka until the day or the election to avoid more defections.  INC then has to hope for support from 2 NCP MLAs and 1 JD(U) MLA.  Before the voting it seems  Vaghela's faction will vote for the pro-BJP candidate and the Gujarat NCP indicated that it will vote BJP as well defying their high command.

Vote which is a secret ballot just ended.  It seems INC has at least 1 defection since one INC MLA refuse to show his ballot to the INC whip before voting.  On the other hand the JD(U) MLA did seem to back the INC candidate.  So INC now has to hope for 1 or both NCP MLA to ignore their Gujarat leadership and vote INC.  There are also chance of BJP defections to INC.    INC claims during the voting they have 45 (43 from INC, 1 from JD(U) and 1 from NCP).  Results will be out soon.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 08:40:24 AM
INC is claiming that 2 of its MLA showed their ballot papers to the BJP President Amit Shah.  This is in theory illegal.  A MLA can only show the ballot paper to the whip of party the MLA belongs too.  BJP denies this.  This is being looked into so the counting is delayed.  Based on this most likely INC failed to get to 45 votes due to several of its MLAs defecting. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 10:36:08 AM
INC insist it has evidence (I think video) that 2 INC MLA showed their ballots to an unauthorized person and that their votes should be invalidated.  BJP argues that there is no evidence.  ECI taking its time to make a call and even start the counting.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 02:06:59 PM
ECI invalidates the votes of the 2 rebel INC MLAs for showing them on video to an unauthorized person.  In the meantime a BJP MLA admits to voting for the INC candidate. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 03:57:17 PM
INC candidate wins seat for Upper House.  It was BJP 46 BJP 46 INC 44 BJP 38.  By disqualifying the 2 INC rebel MLA  the threshold for victory became 44 instead of 45 which was just enough for the INC candidate to win.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 04:26:49 PM
If the ECI decision had gone against INC and the two INC rebel MLA votes counted then it would have been BJP 46 BJP 46 INC 44 BJP 40 with the threshold of victory being 45.  The INC candidate failing to pass that threshold means that second preference votes would then be counted which would be BJP making the way for the third BJP candidate to win.  So it seems had the 2 INC MLAs not shown their ballot to the BJP President Amit shah (I assume to claim credit for their defection for whatever goodies they were promised for defecting)  the INC candidate would have gone down to a humiliating defeat.   


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 08, 2017, 06:47:37 PM
The INC candidate's vote of 44 MLA is interesting.  Once we take into account of the Vaghela faction INC was down to 44 loyal MLAs.  But it seems 1 BJP rebel, 1 NCP MLA and the lone JD(U) MLA all voted for the INC candidate.  That means 3 out of the 44 "loyal MLA"s actually vote for the BJP candidate.  So it seems the resort politics tactic of isolating the 44 INC MLA did not work.  If it was not the mistake of the 2 Vaghela faction INC rebel MLA being caught showing their ballot to the BJP President then these 3  rebels would have sunk the INC's chances.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2017, 06:43:59 PM
Looks like JD(U) is headed for a split with Sharad Yadav leading the anti-BJP faction of JD(U) out of the party.  It is not clear how much support Sharad Yadav has but it is also not clear how much real support Nitish Kumar has now his main asset, his personality, somewhat tarnished with his repeated flip flops.

Even without the now soon defection of Sharad Yadav it was never going to be smooth sailing for BJP and JD(U) when it comes to seat sharing arrangements in 2019 LS elections and 2020 Assembly elections.  Ever since the bifurcation of Bihar in 2000 into Bihar and Jharkhand, JD(U) has been the senior partner in the JD(U)-BJP alliance.  The distribution of seats contested in Bihar in various elections were the following

1999 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)   23
BJP      15
BPP       2

2004 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)   24
BJP      16

2005 Feb Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  138
BJP     103
Ind.       2

2005 Oct Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  138
BJP     103
Ind.       2

2009 LS (out of 40)
JD(U)  25
BJP     15

2010 Assembly (out of 243)
JD(U)  141
BJP     102

Whereas in 2014 LS and 2015 Assembly elections BJP was the senior partner of the JD(U)-less alliance.  It was

2014 LS (out of 40)
BJP      30
LJP       7
RLSP     3

2015 Assembly (out of 243)
BJP     159
LJP       40
RLSP    23
HAM     21

While in the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance it is for 2015 Assembly election
JD(U)  101
RJD     101
INC       41

For 2019 LS and 2020 Assembly, even a JD(U) without Sharad Yadav is expecting an arrangement similar to the 1999-2010 period.  But the BJP now used to be the top dog and will assert that JD(U) is not what it was, especially without  Sharad Yadav.  And there are also LJP RLSP and HAM to accommodate.    BJP might agree to Nitish Kumar being the CM candidate but will insist that BJP contest the largest number, if not near majority of the seats.  That will cause a collision with JD(U) who will insist on something at least like JD(U) and RJD in 2015 (same number of seats) when 2019 and 2020 comes around.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 09, 2017, 06:55:50 PM
BJP President Amit Shah set a goal for the BJP to win 150 out of 182 seats in Gujarat.   Back in 2012 it was BJP 115, INC 61, GPP 2 (GPP is a BJP splinter has since merged back into BJP), NCP 2, JD(U) 1, Independent 1. 

Most likely INC will gain seats rather than lose seats in my opinion although BJP is unlikely to lose its majority.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2017, 07:33:32 PM
Sharad Yadav is provoking his own expulsion of him and his faction from JD(U) so he can still keep his Upper House seat.  He is now publicly saying that Nitish Kumar betrayed  the mandate of 2015 by forming an alliance with BJP which from a certain point of view is true. On the other hand how come back in 2013 when Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav broke with the BJP it was not considered by Sharad Yadav as a "betrayal" of the mandate of 2010 when JD(U)-BJP swept the polls and formed the government ?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2017, 07:45:14 PM
Bihar 2010 to now reminds me a lot of Australia 2007-2013. 

In 2007 Australia voted for Rudd but then got  Gillard then in 2010   Australia voted for Gillard  but then got Rudd.

Likewise in 2010 Bihar voted for JD(U)-BJP but got JD(U)-RJD-INC.  In 2010 Bihar voted for JD(U)-RJD-INC then got JD(U)-BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2017, 07:49:30 PM
Back in the 2015 Bihar elections I wrote a history of different political players and their alignment

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)



Again, every important player in Bihar has been allied with and the enemy of every other player with the exception of the fact that INC and BJP were never allies.

For 2019 LS election I guess now we can add

2019 LS (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + INC)

BJC(R) leader Jagannath Mishra is most likely out of politics given the latest charges of corruption leveled against him for his tenure as INC Bihar CM back in the late 1980s.

I am almost certain there will be another realignment before 2019 comes around.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 10, 2017, 09:27:57 PM
In TN, after being let out on bail, AIADMK's General Secreatary Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran is working to re-asset himself with the Sasikala faction of the AIADMK.  This is provking the pro-CM EPS bloc to try to break free of   TTV Dinakaran by working to oust   TTV Dinakaran from and working to re-unify with OPS faction.  Main problem is the MLA breakdown seems to be

AIADMK
 EPS faction         86 
 OPS faction        12
 Sasikala faction  37

DMK                   89
INC                      8
IMUL                    1

The current EPS government is made up of the AIADMK EPS faction of 86 and Sasikala faction 37 which gives a bare majority.  But if EPS dumps  Sasikala faction and merges with OPS faction that gives them 96 MLAs only and EPS will lose his majority. 

The EPS and OPS factions seems to be reaching out to BJP for help from the center to deal with this situation by finding ways to break the   Sasikala faction with the help and support of the central government.  If this succeeds then a unified AIADMK will join NDA. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 14, 2017, 06:49:32 PM
With the EPS and OPS factions of AIADMK working on a merger backed by BJP, the main condition is sidling of TTV Dinakaran and any influence of Sasikala.  TTV Dinakaran is striking back by holding a rally where 23 AIADMK MLA and 4 AIADMK MPs attended.  His show of force that at least 23 AIADMK MLA are with him is putting a brake on AIADMK merger plans less somehow EPS and OPS can lure more pro-TTV Dinakaran MLAs back on their side.  The alternative is the EPS government losing a vote of no confidence with DMK eagerly looking forward to an early election.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 18, 2017, 04:31:06 AM
India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) has NDA still way ahead

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with

NDA     349   42%
UPA       75   28%
Others  119   30%

Back in 2014 it was

NDA     336   38.45%
UPA       59   23.12%
Others  148  38.43%

So both NDA and UPA gain at the expense of Others since 2014.

Not clear if NDA numbers include JD(U).  If it does not then we should really add ~15 seats and ~1% to NDA.  Also some set of AIADMK factions will eventually join NDA which in turn should add another around ~15 and ~2% to NDA.   If NDA gets to, as a result, ~45% of the vote it would put them at par with 1962 and 1980 proto-UPA levels of vote share.

On the UPA side it seems this does not take into account possible future UPA allies

DMK      ~23 seats and ~2.5% (in TN)
AITC     ~30 seats and ~3.5% (in WB)

And somewhat likely
YSRCP   ~10 seats and ~2.5% (in AP)
SP         ~10 seats and ~3.0% (in UP)
BSP         ~5 seats and ~2.5% (in UP)
AUDF       ~3 seats and  ~0.4% (in Assam)

It seems JD(S) BJD AAP and TRS are unlikely to join UPA

Of course even INC can but this super-UPA it would only add up to around 42% of the vote and the overhead of accomodaing all these parties would add to defections so it is unlikely this 42% can be sustained while at the same time NDA will have 45%.

So while 2019 is mostly gone for UPA, if it can form a Grand alliance like UPA in 2019 it does set things up well for 2024 as long as it can hold together as anti-incumbency will weigh in on Modi by then. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 21, 2017, 06:49:39 AM
C Fore pre-poll survey of Karnataka where elections are due in 2018 has

          vote share     seats
INC        43%           126
BJP        32%             66
JD(S)     17%             27
Others                         5


Back in 2013 it was

          vote share     seats
INC        36.6%        122
JD(S)     20.2%         40
BJP        19.9%         40
KJP         9.8%           6
BSRCP    2.7%            4
Others                        3

KJP and BSRCP has both since merged into BJP so the combined vote share of all 3 parties adds up to 32.4%

So this poll has BJP hodling its vote share from 2013 and a swing from JD(S) to INC.  Sort of a surprise as I would expect the BJP to be ahead without an INC-JD(S) alliance.  I suspect as the election gets closer for the polls to move in BJP's favor given the anti-incumbency against the INC government.  


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 21, 2017, 07:17:54 AM
In TN, AIADMK OPS and EPS factions agreed to merge.  The united AIADMK will expel  Sasikala, the jailed General Secretary, as per request of the OPS faction.  It seems EPS will remain CM while ex-CM OPS will become DCM.  Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran still seems to have the support of over 20 AIADMK MLA so this new arrangement might lead to the fall of the AIADMK government.   
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 27, 2017, 05:27:11 AM
Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, leader of the cult Dera Sacha Sauda (DSS), was convicted of rape of several minors.

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DSS is strong in the Punjab Haryana Delhi.  As a result there have been mass riots by DSS supporters, mostly in Haryana, with dead hitting at least 32.

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DSS is popular amoung lower caste and Dalit populations with its caste-less message.  It is also active politically backing INC in 2007 and 2012 in Punjab and backing BJP in 2014 in Haryana and 2017 in Punjab.  Overall its backing tends to turn off Sikh voters who have a running religious feud with DSS.  Other than Punjab 2007 backing from DSS tends to hurt the party it backs as DSS is quite large but tends to mobilize an even larger anti-DSS vote for the opposing party.

One of the reasons it seems that the riots got out of control is because of the BJP-DSS alliance in Haryana and the BJP regme in Haryana not acting quickly to suppress the rioters of its DSS allies in Haryana.  This is going to hurt BJP in Haryana.  

As for the rape case it is the same old drill with rapes within a cult.  The leader, in this case Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, is allegedly have wanted sexual contact with daughters of cult members and claiming that such contact has religious and spiritual value.  Of course Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh claims that he is physically not capable of sexual activities.  It seems the courts ruled against him.  There are also claims that DSS has pressured over 400 male DSS members to castrate themselves to ensure that they do not have unwarranted sexual contact  with other members of the DSS cult in the DSS communal compound. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on August 30, 2017, 04:27:50 PM
In TN the now EPS-OPS fusion is working to remove  Sasikala as general secretary of AIADMK.  But Sasikala's nephew  TTV Dinakaran  counter attacked by getting 19 AIADMK MLAs to back him in calling for the removal of EPS as CM which makes the distribution of MLA.  Note that Sasikala faction  has large financial assets that can be used to gain political leverage over the AIADMK MLAs.

AIADMK
 EPS-OPS faction     116 
 Sasikala faction       19

DMK                       89
INC                         8
IMUL                       1

Which EPS-OPS can surive because they use anti-defection law to remove the 19 Sasikala faction MLA as the MLA and EPS-OPS faction of 116 can still outvote DMK-INC-IMUL. 

But as EPS-OPS gathered a party meeting to remove  Sasikala as general secretary of AIADMK 4 more AIADMK MLA joined the Sasikala faction  and a bunch of additional nominally EPS-OPS MLAs did not join the said meeting.  EPS-OPS faction then had cold feet and delayed the decision remove Sasikala.  This only emboldened  TTV Dinakaran and it seems the Sasikala faction has grown to 32 which means it is

AIADMK
 EPS-OPS faction     103 
 Sasikala faction       32

DMK                       89
INC                         8
IMUL                       1

Now if the Sasikala faction of 32 MLAs are removed as MLAs under the anti-defection law then EPS-OPS is down to 103 over 98 of DMK-INC-IMUL where the margin gets very close.   

The EPS-OPS merger and plan to remove  Sasikala and then take AIADMK into the NDA seems to be blowing up on EPS-OPS as there are rumors that these losses to  Sasikala faction are leading to tension between the EPS and OPS factions.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 02, 2017, 11:42:59 AM
Lokniti-CSDS for ABP poll for Gujarat has BJP winning in a landslide with BJP winning 59% of the vote versus 29% for INC and winning almost 150 out of 182 seats.   Back in 2012 it was

            vote share    seats
BJP            115          47.9% 
INC+           63          39.8%  (INC backed NCP in a few seats)
GPP              2            3.6%

This time NCP will run separately from INC and GPP has since merged back into BJP.    I still mostly do not buy it.  I mostly feel that INC will get a small positive swing from 2012.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 16, 2017, 09:03:23 PM
Since Gujarat is coming up soon. It might be useful to look at the electoral history of Gujarat. 

Gujarat was created by merging Gujarati speaking areas of Bombay state with Kutch and Saurashtra in 1960

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Initially INC was dominate but politics in Gujarat quickly became a bipolar state with INC vs Right Wing INC splinters in the 1960s to 1990s and INC vs BJP 1990s to today.  Gujarat quickly became a state that has an anti-INC lean but at the same time is a fairly inelastic state, especially at the federal level.

The 1962 LS election which is the first election in Gujarat finds INC pitted against SWA which is a free market Right wing INC splinter and is representative of the INC domination of Indian politics across other Indian states

Gujarat 1962 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            22               16              52.56%

SWA+        19                4               30.86%

PSP+         15                 2               14.10% (NJP and RPI are part of PSP+)

BJS             5                 0                1.44%  (BJS is proto-BJP)

RPI is a Dalit based party which one can see as a proto-BSP.  NJP was a party that existed to help create the state of Gujarat.  It disappeared soon after 1962 since the main raison d'etre of its existence has been accomplished. 

The 1962 Gujarat assembly elections had similar results with INC domination with SWA as the main opposition party.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 16, 2017, 09:10:39 PM
In 1967 Gujarat had both LS and assembly elections.  INC had setbacks across Northern India but in Gujarat it was was very severe in the LS election with all opposition parties (SWA BJS PSP RPI) all ganged up under the SWA banner and managed to narrowly beat INC.  This took place despite significant rebellion in the SWA+ bloc.  SWA and PSP ran separately in the 1967 Gujarat Assembly and allowed INC to win.

Gujarat 1967 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            24                11               46.92%

INC rebel                        0                 1.28%

SWA+        24                13               45.70%  (RPI and PSP are part of SWA+)

SWA rebel                      0                 3.57%
 

Gujarat 1967 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share 
INC            168              93               45.96%

INC rebel                        2                  2.60%

SWA+        166             69                41.47%  (BJS was part of SWA+)

SWA rebel                      1                  2.50%

PSP+          51               3                  3.69%  (SSP was part of PSP+)
 
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 16, 2017, 09:39:21 PM
Between 1967 and 1971/1972 which had the next round of elections in Gujarat there were 2 critical events that took place in 1969 that is critical for the political future of Gujarat.  First, INC split in 1969 into INC(O) and INC(R) [which I will still call INC].  INC(R) is the pro-India Gandhi faction of the INC while INC(O) is the pro-party boss faction of INC.  Morarji Desai who is the INC leader of Gujarat became the  leader of INC(O) which in turn due to the favorite son effect made INC(O) more powerful than INC in Gujarat even if the reverse was true in the rest of India.

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INC(O) then displaced SWA as the main opposition force to INC in Gujarat.  Also in 1969 severe Hindu-Muslim riots broke out with almost 1000 people kill as a result.  These riots catapulted the Hindu nationalist BJS (proto-BJP) into a real force in Gujarat.  

In 1971 Indira Gandhi called mid-term elections which pitted a loose alliance of INC(O), SWA, BJS BLD and SSP against INC.    In Gujarat INC(O) failed to form an alliance with BJS and given the nature of the 1971 LS election was an Indira Gandhi vs INC(O) battle BJS ended up being marginalized.  INC(O)+ bloc managed a narrow win over Indira Gandhi's INC despite an INC landslide victory in the rest of India.  The impact of local favorite son Morarji Desai was clearly a major factor.

Gujarat 1971 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC+           24               11               46.44%   (PSP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                 0.71%

INC(O)+      24               13               47.25%   (SWA was part of INC(O)+)

INC(O) rebel                                       0.24%

BJS              5                 0                 2.22%


India Gandhi's INC landslide victory across India in 1971 drove a lot of INC(O) cadres to defect back to INC.   As a result when the 1972 Gujarat Assembly election took place the INC has gained ground on INC(O).  Worse SWA split from INC(O) to run separately.   Also the true size of BJS became clear given the 1969 riots and the shift of Hindu vote toward BJS which also took support from INC(O).  The result of the split in the anti-INC vote was a massive INC landslide.

Gujarat 1972 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC             168            140              50.93%

INC rebel                         1                 0.88%

INC(O)+      158             20               27.34%

INC(O) rebel                    0                 1.77%

BJS+          125                6              12.35%

SWA             47               0                 1.78%

SOP             15                0                 0.72%  (SOP is united party of PSP-SSP merger)

CPI              11                1                 0.47%



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2017, 03:08:36 PM
The very nature of the landslide victories of Indira Gandhi's INC in 1971-1972 itself provoked the fusion of opposition against it in Gujarat and in the rest of India.  By 1973 JM was formed as an alliance of opposition parties which include INC(O), BJS, BLD (SWA merged into BLD), RMP (local Gujarat INC splinter), and SOP.  JM should be seen as a proto-JNP.   Separately the INC CM of Chimanbhai Patel was put under pressure from the opposition due to various corruption scandals which led to a crescendo of protests.  

()

In the end Chimanbhai Patel was forced to resign in 1974 and new assembly elections called in Gujarat for 1975.  Right after Chimanbhai Patel stepped down he pulled a surprising move.  He quit INC and joined an insurgent INC splinter party KLP which was based on the Patel as well as rural farmer interests.  Chimanbhai Patel claimed that he was forced by INC to step down due a campaign by his INC rival Madhav Singh Solanki as part of a campaign against Patels in the INC.

()

As a result the 1975 Gujarat assembly election became a 3 way battle between Madhav Singh Solanki led INC, INC(O) led JM, Chimanbhai Patel KLP.    JM was led by Babubhai J. Patel who was the Gujarat leader of INC(O)

()
 
The result was a narrow victory for JM as KLP seems to have taken votes from both INC and JM.

Gujarat 1975 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             182              75                40.70%

INC rebel                          0                 1.05%

JM              178              88                40.20% (led by INC(O) with BJS, BLD, RMP, and SOP)

JM rebel                           2                  0.47%

KLP             147              17               14.11%

With no bloc with a majority, Chimanbhai Patel led KLP to join JM alliance and backed Babubhai J. Patel to be the first non-INC CM of Gujarat although Babubhai J. Patel  is part of the old Gujarat INC and now leader of the INC(O).

Defeat in Gujarat and an adverse decision in the Indian supreme court against Indira Gandhi lead Indira Gandhi and INC to impose a state of emergency that lasted from 1975-1977.  Most of the excesses of the Emergency that hit Northern India did not impact Gujarat given INC did not control the state government.  In late 1976  Babubhai J. Patel's JM government was dismissed and Madhav Singh Solanki installed as CM of Gujarat by the central government.  

Soon after that the 1977 LS election was called.  All the JM component parties including KLP merged into JNP to take on INC.  The result of the LS election was a shock victory for JNP, especially in Northern India.  In Gujarat the inelastic nature of the state was on display as INC was defeated but only by a small margin and was a replication of 1971 LS elections with part of the 1975 KLP vote going back to INC.  The fact that the Emergency did not affect Gujarat played a large part in the results.

Gujarat 1977 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share  
INC             26                10               46.92%

INC rebel                          0                 0.29%

JNP             26                16               49.54%

JNP rebel                          0                 0.76%

With the JNP winning the 1977 LS elections and JNP's Morarji Desai (who was from INC(O) of Gujarat as pointed out before) becoming India's new PM, Madhav Singh Solanki's INC government in Gujarat was dismissed and Babubhai J. Patel's JNP government re-instated.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 17, 2017, 04:06:19 PM
After JNP came to power at the center cracks began in the JNP and by 1979 JNP split with an anti-BJS anti-Morarji Desai pro-Charan Singh JNP(S) being formed and pulling down the government.  In the meantime INC(U) split from INC.  As a result the 1980 LS election was called with INC easily crushing its divided rivals.

Gujarat 1980 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               25                54.84%

JNP             26                1                 36.89%

JNP rebel                        0                   0.69%

INC(U)+      23               0                   4.85% (JNP(S) and CPI were part of INC(U)+)

BJP which is the post-JNP incarnation of BJS split from JNP soon after the 1980 LS elections which brought Indira Gandhi's INC back to power.  Soon the 1980 Gujarat assembly election came and the result was an expected INC landslide with the opposition vote split between JNP BJP and INC(U)-JNP(S).

Gujarat 1980 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             182            141               51.04%

INC rebel                         2                 1.31%

JNP+          169              28               26.51%

JNP rebel                         1                 0.80%

BJP+          130               9                14.34%

INC(U)+      61                1                 1.93% (JNP(S) and CPI were part of INC(U))

The Gujarat 1980 assembly election results is a carbon copy of the Gujarat 1972 Assembly election with 1980 JNP playing the 1972 INC(O).  Of course INC managed the vote share in 1980 similar to the 1972 Assembly election despite losing key Patel leaders like  Chimanbhai Patel and Babubhai J. Patel.  This was accomplished under the leadership of Madhav Singh Solanki whose son Bharatsinh Madhavsinh Solanki is still the head of INC in Gujarat today.   He managed to do this with something called the KHAM theory.   KHAM stands for Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim.  Kshatriya are the Upper castes, Harijan are Dalits, and Adivasi are tribals.  Madhav Singh Solanki who went on to be a key INC leader and INC CM of Gujarat throughout most of 1980s postulated that the Patel vote was lost to the INC for a generation or two and that to win INC has to focus on the KHAM social blocs.  He was successful in consolidating these voting bloc for INC and with the opposition splintered was able to deliver landslide after landslide for the INC in the 1980s.




Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 18, 2017, 06:35:16 AM
The return to power by Indira Gandhi's INC in 1980 created its own anti-incumbency and it seems that INC might have a tough time in the next round of elections in 1985.  The assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 changed that creating a massive pro-INC sympathy wave along with INC organized anti-Sikh violence.  The various opposition parties (JNP BJP LKD (renamed from JNP(S)) tried to no avail to form a united front to take on INC but in Gujarat they managed to do so.  But it was to no avail against the pro-INC wave buttressed by the KHAM social coalition.

Gujarat 1984 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               24              53.24%

INC rebel                         0                1.83%

JNP+          26                 2              39.99%  (BJP and LKD were part of JNP+)


When the Gujarat 1985 Assembly election came around the JNP and BJP could not even manage to form an alliance with the expected INC landslide that ensued as a result, again, based on the KHAM social coalition. 

Gujarat 1985 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC            182            149               55.55%

INC rebel                        1                 0.51%

JNP+         154              19               22.00%

JNP rebel                        1                 1.57%

BJP+         134              12               16.16%

BJP rebel                        0                0.41%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 18, 2017, 07:23:17 AM
After the INC landslides of 1984-1985 the opposition regrouped as INC itself fell into decline with scandal after scandal.  JNP, LKD, and VP Singh's INC splinter JM merged into JD while a rump JNP remained.  As 1989 LS election approached JD and BJP formed tactical alliances across Northern India on a seat by seat basis while JD formed similar alliance with CPM-CPI.  In Gujarat the JD-BJP alliance was full blown and the result was a crushing defeat for INC even as INC was beaten but not crushed across Northern India.

Gujarat 1989 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26                3               37.16%

INC rebel                         0                 0.38%

JD+             26              23               58.27%  (BJP was part of JD+)

JNP               5                0                 0.16%

DMM             7                0                 0.70%  (local Dalit-Muslim outfit)

The BJP performed better than JD in the seats they contested and that should have been a warning sign to JD on what is to come.  At then national level VP Singh's JD formed a minority government with outside support from both BJP and the Left Front.  A year later when the Gujarat 1990 Assembly election came around, once again the JD-BJP alliance fell apart and then ran separately.    This should have given the INC the chance to survive, but such was the swing against INC since the 1980s, plus anti-INC tactical voting by JD and BJP voting blocs, and large INC rebellion that INC came in a poor third in a 3 way race.

Gujarat 1990 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           182             33                30.85%

INC rebel                         4                  2.23%

JD+             160             74                31.27%

JD rebel                           0                  0.54%
JNP               82               0                  0.55%

BJP+           164             70                29.26%

BJP rebel                        0                   0.22%

YVP              61              1                   0.85%  (regional party)

With neither JD or BJP with a majority and JD slightly stronger than BJP, a JD-BJP government was formed under the familiar face of now JD CM Chimanbhai Patel who was INC CM back in the 1970s before a falling out and eventual defection to JNP which became JD.  

Chimanbhai Patel can see that he enemy of the future was the BJP so the JD-BJP alliance did not last long.  Within months Chimanbhai Patel broke with the national JD and formed JD(G) and took most of the entire JD organization with him in late 1990.  He then broke off the JD-BJP government and formed an alliance with his old party the INC.  He then formed a JD(G)-INC government with himself continuing as  CM.  

At the national level the JD government fell when BJP withdrew support in 1991 while SJP also split from JNP.    As a result LS election ensued which was going the BJP's way in Northern India until Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in the middle of the election produced a pro-INC wave in the seats that voted after that event.  In Gujarat INC-JD(G) ran as allies to take on the BJP but Gujarat voted before the assassination so the result went BJP's way as the Upper Caste and Patel vote went over to the BJP.  

Gujarat 1991 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+            26                6                42.06%   (JD(G) was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                  1.00%

BJP              26              20                50.37%

JD               24               0                  3.42%

SJP             19                0                  0.57%

YVP             11                0                  0.26%

JD(G) took the entire JD organization with it so JD and SJP vote completely collapsed as Gujarat reverted to a bipolar nature of election results.   The Gujarat 1991 LS election was a groundbreaking election as it was the first time the BJP won on its own and the BJP will win every Gujarat (LS and assembly) election from this election on.  In that sense the Gujarat 1991 LS election was the realigning election of Gujarat election history.  Despite a setup in Gujarat, the sympathy wave for INC in the rest of India that voted after Rajiv Gandhi's assassination was able to bring INC to power again at the center.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 19, 2017, 06:34:18 AM
As the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election approached INC-JD(G) was facing anti-incumbency at both the center and state level.  What INC-JD(G) counted on with the fact that the union of INC and JD(G) vote bases most likely still exceeded that of the BJP, especially in rural areas, and that the 1991 BJP victory in the LS elections was a fluke.  Also Chimanbhai Patel was a mass leader with appeal that can pull in the Patel vote.  Unfortunately for INC-JD(G), Chimanbhai Patel passed away in 1994 leaving JD(G) without a mass leader.  Leaderless, JD(G) merged into INC in 1995 to take on the BJP in  Gujarat 1995 Assembly election.  This merged created mass indigestion where a large number of JD(G) incumbents had to be accommodated in which frigged mass rebelling in the existing INC structure.  As a result INC was defeated in the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election due to a massive number of INC rebels and despite the fact that BJP had a significant number of rebels as well.

Gujarat 1995 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           182             45               32.96%

INC rebel                       15                10.25%

BJP             182            121               42.51%

BJP rebel                         1                 3.16%

JD               115              0                 2.82%

BSP             115              0                 1.60%

With this election BJP finally accomplished its long cherished dream since the 1969 Gujarat riots catapulted BJS as powerful force of coming to power in Gujarat.  But as soon as power came problems came for the BJP.  There were two top contenders for BJP CM of Gujarat.  Namely Shankersinh Vaghela

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and Keshubhai Patel

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Shankersinh Vaghela had slight more support in the BJP caucus but Shankersinh Vaghela's chief lieutenant Narendra Modi who he had a Brown-Blair like relationship backed Keshubhai Patel. 

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Narendra  Modi masterminded the Gujarat 1995 Assembly election BJP campaign so he had a lot of political clout as a result. The central BJP also seem to back Keshubhai Patel who as a result became CM.

This setup did not last long.  Within months Shankersinh Vaghela and his faction threatened to bolt from the BJP.  A compromise solution was found.  Keshubhai Patel stepped down as CM and Dilip Parikh who was close to  Shankersinh Vaghela was installed as CM instead.  Narendra  Modi who now became Shankersinh Vaghela primary enemy because of his "betryal" was exiled from Gujart to work for the central BJP in New Delhi. 

By this time Narendra Modi has already created his own faction with the Gujarat BJP and despite his exile, his chief lieutenant and upcoming BJP superstar Amit Shah continued to cultivate the  Narendra Modi faction despite Modi's exile from Gujarat

()

This arrangement continued until the 1996 LS elections.  In the time since the Gujarat 1995 Assembly elections a significant number of INC rebels have defected to the BJP so the BJP should be set for a easy landslide victory in Gujarat.  But due to infighting between the Shankersinh Vaghela, Keshubhai Patel and Narenda Modi factions the BJP managed only a narrow victory despite an India wide wave against INC as well as a India wide INC rebel party in the form of AIIC(T).

Gujarat 1996 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26              10               38.69%

INC rebel                         0                 1.20%
AIIC(T)        19                0                 1.88%

BJP              26              16               48.52%

BJP rebel                         0                2.42%

JD               15                0                0.42%

BSP             17               0                 0.38%

GAVP            4                0                 1.66%  (tribal based Gujart regional party)

Nationwide INC was ousted and a JD+ minority government was formed with outside support from INC.   In Gujarat Shankersinh Vaghela lost his LS seat as part the slight setback to BJP in Gujart and Shankersinh Vaghela explicitly blamed Keshubhai Patel and Narenda Modi for sabotage for his defeat.  As a result he and his faction bolted from BJP and formed RJP.  INC decided to back RJP and the RJP-INC formed a majority with  Shankersinh Vaghela becoming CM. 

The RJP-INC government lasted for a year before RJP-INC relationship deteriorated  to the point where in 1997 INC threatened to pull support from  Shankersinh Vaghela.  A compromised was then worked out where Shankersinh Vaghela lieutenant and RJP's Dilip Parikh became CM instead of Shankersinh Vaghela and INC support continued.  This lasted a year until early 1998 when INC decided to pull the plug for support for Dilip Parikh  and midterm elections for Gujarat assembly elections were called.  At the same time the JD+ government also fell at the center due to INC pulling support so midterm LS elections were also called.  So for the first time since 1967 Gujarat will have simultaneous elections for both LS and assembly.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 19, 2017, 12:49:20 PM
The Gujarat 1998 LS and Assembly election was a 3 way race between INC BJP and RJP.  The result was a victory for the BJP as while RJP took some votes from BJP it also took some votes from INC as well.

Gujarat 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+            26              7                36.68%

BJP               26            19                48.28%

RJP               20             0                10.21%

JD                15             0                  2.94%

SP                 9              0                 0.53%



Gujarat 1998 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          182             54              35.25%

INC rebel                        2                1.94%

BJP             182           117              44.81%

BJP rebel                        0                1.23%

RJP             168              4              11.68%
 
JD                                  4               2.63%

SP                                 1                0.40%


With the BJP victory Keshubhai Patel returned to power as the BJP CM of Gujarat.  After the 1998 election where the Shankersinh Vaghela's RJP was soundly defeated he merged RJP into INC with Shankersinh Vaghela as a top INC leader with his own separate faction within INC.   At the center BJP led NDA won enough support to form a government at the center.

In 1999 another midterm LS election took place due to AIADMK withdrew support from the NDA government.  NCP also split from INC as part of this political realignment.   The result showed that some of the RJP vote stayed with INC but a lot of it went back to BJP as Gujarat elections reverted to its bipolar nature.

Gujarat 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             26               6                  45.44%

NCP                               0                    0.52%

BJP             26             20                  52.48%

JD(U)                            0                    0.40%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 20, 2017, 06:45:52 AM
As the next Gujarat  Assembly election approached it was clear that the BJP was in trouble.  The Keshubhai Patel government was seen as ineffective especially during the 2000 gujarat earthquake.  In a bunch of by-elections in 2001 the BJP was trounced by the INC and all signs points to a INC comeback in 2002.  To cut its loses the BJP removed Keshubhai Patel  from the role and brought back Narendra Modi from exile in New Delhi to take over as CM.  Despite his clear organizational abilities Narendra Modi was controversial and had a lot of enemies in the Gujarat BJP, especially from the Keshubhai Patel faction bitter that their leader was removed.  It was not at all clear that Narendra Modi  would be able turn the situation around.  Then in Feb 2002, a year before when the assembly election was due, a massive Hindu-Mulsim riot broke out which turned into a de facto anti-Muslim poprom.

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 It is said that Modi was behind this riot but there has not been any definitive proof.  It is clear that Narendra Modi  worked to take political advantage of the Hindu-Muslim polarization.  During the riots Dalits which have traditionally voted INC took part in the anti-Muslim riots and became polarized toward the BJP which Narendra Modi  worked to cultivate.  Narendra Modi worked to call the assembly election early to scoop up the Hindu votes.  The election was expected to be close but the result was a surprising BJP landslide.

Gujarat 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182              51              39.53%  (CPM was part of INC+)

INC rebel                        1                1.58%
NCP            81                0                1.71%

BJP           182             127              49.85%

BJP rebel                        1                1.04%

JD(U)         29                2                0.86%

BNP           26                0                 1.15%

BSP           34                0                 0.32%

()

In areas unaffected by the riots there was a clear swing toward the INC from 1998.  But in riot affected areas there was a Hindu consolidation for BJP who pretty much sweep all the seats.  This seem to indicate that without the riots the INC most likely would have won a 2002 or 2003 assembly election.  So just like the 1969 riots started the BJS rise the 2002 riots saved the BJP government.

The Narendra Modi government ended up being a much more efficient and effective government than the Keshubhai Patel government.  As the 2004 LS election approached, given the perception that the BJP was popular nationally, the INC in a rut after the 2002 defeat, and the perception of Narendra Modi's government's effectiveness there was a view that the BJP would win a landslide victory in Gujarat and could end up with all 26 seats.  INC did managed to get NCP to join INC in an alliance so the old INC vote base would not be split.  The result was the BJP was defeated nationally in an upset and in Gujarat the bipolar and nonelastic nature of elections created only a very narrow victory for the BJP and a humiliation Narendra Modi given his pre-election boastful talks of total victory.

Gujarat 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         26                12               45.02%

BJP            26                14               47.37%

BSP           20                  0                1.48%

BNP            3                  0                0.90%

JD(U)         4                  0                 0.86%

SP            11                  0                 0.53%



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 21, 2017, 06:10:35 AM
The period after INC recapture power at the center in 2004 was one of fairly rapid economic growth in India and Gujarat under Narendra Modi also saw its share of rapid economic development which in many ways should have given the BJP the upper hand in the Gujarat 2007 Assembly elections despite and unexpectedly weak performance in the 2004 LS elections.  Still INC was banking on the return of the Dalit vote as the polarization from the 2002 wore off as well as continued alliance with NCP.  Furthermore Keshubhai Patel who was sidelined by Narendra Modi in the BJP actually passively endorsed INC and for sure backed various BJP rebels.  BJS which is a MP based BJP splinter also ran to split the BJP vote.  All this gave INC some hope of closing the gap significantly from 2002.   The Gujarat 2007 Assembly election ended in a victory for the BJP with a very similar margin compared to 2002 in a sign that the Hindu-Muslim polarization remained while Narendra Modi  strong economic record did give the BJP an added boost.

Gujarat 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182               63               39.49%  (NCP and CPM were part of INC+)

INC rebel                         1                 1.49%

BJP           182             117                49.12%

BJP rebel                        0                  1.21%
BJS           37                 0                  0.64%

JD(U)        35                 1                  0.66%

BSP         166                 0                  2.62%


In the 2009 LS elections the national trend seems to be even between INC and BJP before and in the end the BJP did gain a bit of ground but INC overall surprised on the upside by keeping it close despite a lack of an alliance with NCP.  BJP itself had a local splinter MJP.  Nationally INC also won by a surprising margin.  

Gujarat 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC              26              11               43.38%

INC rebel                        0                  0.40%
NCP               7               0                  0.30%

BJP             26               15               46.52%

MJP             16                0                1.40%

BSP             24               0                 1.62%

SP              13                0                 0.45%

JD(U)          2                0                  0.41%

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 24, 2017, 09:27:34 PM
The Gujarat 2012 Assembly election was seen as a litmus test for Narenda Modi in his ambition to capture control of the BJP and becoming the BJP candidate for PM in 2014 LS elections.  If he can lead the BJP to a solid victory in 2012 then he will have the credibility to be able to pull this off.  He had the challenge of dealing with a Keshubhai Patel led BJP rebel party in the form of GPP.  MJP had merged into GPP.  It was expected that GPP would pull away a large bloc of the BJP vote and make the race a 50/50 race between BJP and INC.  In the end Modi pulled off another solid victory.  

Gujarat 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         180               63              39.69%    (NCP was part of INC+)

INC rebel                         0                0.82%

BJP           182             115              47.86%

BJP rebel                        1                 1.18%
GPP          167                2                 3.63%

JD(U)         65                1                 0.67%

BSP          165               0                  1.25%

()


As expected, after this solid BJP win Modi was able to become the BJP PM candidate for the 2014 LS election.  The macro environment got from bad to worse for the INC during 2013-2014 and as a result INC was crushed in a landslide victory for the BJP led NDA in 2014 LS elections.  In Gujarat due to the landslide and favorite son effect the BJP was finally able to break open the distance between itself and INC and win all 26 seats in a high turnout election

Gujarat 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+          26                 0               34.40%

BJP             26               26               60.11%

AAP            24                 0                1.19%

BSP            24                 0                0.96%

JD(U)         12                 0                0.40%

Narenda Modi as a result became PM of India and Anandiben Patel took over from Narendra Modi as CM of Gujarat.  

In many way as the Gujarat 2007 Assembly election approached both BJP and INC were beset with many problems.  BJP had to deal with a Patel demand for reservations led by Patel leader Hardik Patel

()

Not being able to deal with that crisis, Anandiben Patel was removed as  CM  replaced with Vijay Rupani.  Vijay Rupani had to deal with Dalit protests which are still ongoing.  The BJP will most likely lose both Patel and Dalit votes in the upcoming election.  

For INC, first AAP has decided to target Gujarat for expansion and for sure will cut into the INC vote. Second, the INC-NCP alliance broke down and NCP will run separately from INC.  Third, Shankersinh Vaghela, BJP rebel turned RJP leader turned INC leader has recently left INC after his ultimatum of being made the CM candidate for INC was turned down.  Shankersinh Vaghela has formed JV and will run a third front perhaps bring in NCP into it.

It is clear that there will be a swing from BJP to INC.  But the INC will set its vote share split by AAP, NCP and JV.  Another question is how will Hardik Patel's movement act in the election.  Will it endorse INC or join up with JV.  The answers to these questions will determine the outcome to the election.  

My take is the split of the anti-BJP vote will be enough for the BJP to win but with a narrow majority.  Talk of a BJP landslide is unlikely to take place given the loss of the Dalit and Patel vote for the BJP.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on September 27, 2017, 05:39:16 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalheraldindia.com/amp/story/politics%252Fbjp-will-lose-in-gujarat-mp-rss-survey



Photo by Virendra Singh Gosain/Hindustan Times via Getty ImagesPhoto by Virendra Singh Gosain/Hindustan Times via Getty Images
POLITICS
BJP will lose in Gujarat, MP: RSS Survey
By Pankaj Mishra
September 26, 2017 at 1:53 PM
A bad phase for the BJP has started in the states of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh (MP). It may win 100 or even less seats in the coming Assembly elections in MP. The survey conducted by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has stated that the Congress may win 120 or more seats in Madhya Pradesh while the BJP will hardly manage 57-60 seats. The survey indicates at least 10 per cent decrease in the BJP’s vote share. The RSS survey shows that the Congress is in quite a strong position in Gujarat. The RSS has handed over the report of this survey to the BJP president and the Prime Minister.

BJP’S VOTE SHARE MAY DECREASE BY 8 TO 10 PER CENT IN GUJARAT

The RSS conducted this survey in Gujarat to gauge the pulse of the voters but the results shocked even the RSS. They show a definite decrease in the vote share of BJP by 8 to 10 per cent. The main cause for this decrease in vote share is the anger amongst backward communities due to the changes in the process of reservation. On the other hand, the Kunbi Patidar vote bank of the BJP also seems to be drifting away because of the death of 14 people during the Patidar Anamat Movement.

The socio-political scenario in Gujarat which came to the fore in the survey clearly tells us that the BJP president and the Prime Minister may get defeated in their home state. In Gujarat, the Koli Machhuara community is 24.22 per cent of the total population, 17.61 are tribals and the Kunbi Patidar Patels form 12.16 per cent of the population. The Dalit percentage is only 7.17 per cent while Muslims are also only 8.53 per cent of the people.

The Koli Machhuara and Kunbi Patidar are politically powerful in western Gujarat (Saurashtra- Kutch. Leua Patels are quite influential in 36 seats of the 58 seats of Saurashtra-Kutch. In 46 seats of Saurashtra and 13 seats of south Gujarat, the Koli-Machhuara community can play a decisive role.

BETRAYAL ON THE PRESIDENT’S CASTE

Possibly, this is the reason why the BJP has been publicising President Ram Nath Kovind as a person belonging to the Koli community instead of the Kori community to which he actually belongs. This may be a ploy to woo the Kolis and fishermen (Machhuaras). Louten Ram Nishad, a social justice scholar and leader of the machhuara community, has this to say, “To publicise Ram Nath Kovid as belonging to the Koli community is a huge deception. It is a part of the BJP’s politics of lies and cheating, because Koris and Kolis are completely different communities.”

The Koli community is almost double the size of Kunbi Patidars in Gujarat but the Patels are politically quite aware and powerful. In south central and north Gujarat, there is no influential Koli leader. Purushottam Bhai Solanki is the only powerful leader but the Koli community is quite annoyed at the way he has been treated. In 2001, he became a minister in the Modi government of the state and is still a state minister in the Rupani state cabinet.

In the last state elections, he had raised the issue of giving Kolis 25 to 30 seats. This time too, the issue of making a Koli leader the chief ministerial face seems to be picking up in Gujarat.

The pre-election survey by the RSS shows that killing of Dalits in Una will seriously damage the BJP.

DEFEAT IS CERTAIN IN MADHYA PRADESH

Even in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP seems to be losing its way. The survey results say that the BJP will not be able to win half the seats that it had won in 2012. The survey shows that the Congress may win more than 120 seats in Madhya Pradesh and BJP may get 57-60 seats.

Recently, Amit Shah had given a target of 160-plus seats during his three-day visit to Madhya Pradesh. The very next day, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that the BJP will win 200 plus seats in the coming Assembly elections. Madhya Pradesh Assembly has a total of 230 seats and the BJP will require 116 seats to come back to power. But the internal survey by the RSS shows the route may not be smooth for the BJP.

VYAPAM MAY WRECK SHIVRAJ’S GOVERNMENT

According to this survey, BJP may get less than 100 seats in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. If the big wigs of the Congress have efficient coordination, then the BJP is sure to lose the election. The Vyapam scam and many sex scandals related to BJP leaders have tarnished the party’s image. The farmers’ movement and death of 6 farmers during the movement, suicide by more than 50 farmers and sending the leader of Narmada Bachao Andolan, Medha Patkar, to jail are some of the issues which will seriously hamper BJP’s path to victory in the elections.

In such a situation, there is a possibility that BJP will fight the election without projecting any chief ministerial candidate. This may be because the party thinks it is very difficult to win an election under the leadership of present Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

(IANS) The views expressed in the above opinion piece are author’s own



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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 15, 2017, 08:50:58 AM
Gurdaspur in Punjab LS bypoll counting is today (due to BJP MP passed away) with a INC smashing victory

2014 it was

BJP   46.3%
INC   36.2%
AAP   16.6%

Now it is

INC   58.6%
BJP   36.0%
AAP    2.8%

To be fair this by-poll is too close to the INC assembly election victory earlier this year so I count this as more of an after effect of that INC victory than any real trend toward INC at the national level.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 15, 2017, 09:00:51 AM
Kerela assembly seat Vengara by election result out

In 2016 it was

UDF   60.0%
LDF   28.4%
BJP     5.9%
SDPI   2.5%

Now it is

UDF   53.7%
LDF   34.5%
SDPI   7.1%
BJP     4.7%

BJP invested a lot into this by-election and the result was a slight swing away from BJP in a high turnout by-election.  A swing from UDF to LDF is par for the course.  SDPI did make significant gains that one thought would have been for the BJP.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 17, 2017, 09:21:09 PM
In Gujarat, it seems that the JD(U) which is aligned with the pro-UPA Sharad Yadav and not with pro-NDA Nitish Kumar is moving toward an alliance with INC.  JD(U) in Gujarat has some strength in tribal areas.  At the same time Patel leader Hardik Patel, Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor are all in talks with INC to form an alliance. 

 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on October 24, 2017, 08:34:25 PM
India Today-Axis My India poll

Gujarat
                       Seat    Vote share
BJP                   120        48%
INC                    61         38%
Hardick Party        0          2%
Others                  1        12%

Patel vote which historically has gone BJP it is
BJP                 38%
INC                 40%
Hardick Party   10%  (Anti-BJP Patel rebel movement)
Others            12%

But BJP makes gains with OBC vote
BJP     52%
INC     34%
Others 14%

Muslim vote still with INC
BJP               11%
INC               74%
Hardick Party   2%
Others           13%

I suspect BJP will do worse than this.  Especially if Hardick Patel allies with INC.



HP
                       Seat    Vote share
BJP                    44         49%
INC                    23         38%
Others                 1          13%

I suspect BJP will do better than this.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2017, 04:31:03 PM
Latest CSDS-ABP poll has INC catching up quickly in Gujarat just I thought would take place

()

It has
               
                Vote share    seats
BJP              47%          117
INC              41%           62
Others         12%             4

Of course this puts INC back where it was in 2012 although it seems have gotten over the by BJP 2014 LS landslide and gotten partisan aligns roughly to pre-2014 patterns. 

Of course if polls show INC this close pre-election then the actual results might be even closer.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2017, 04:34:26 PM
HP voted yesterday.  Result to be sealed until Gujarat also votes.

Turnout was a record at 74.61%

()

Most likely a bad sign the the ruling INC and given the turnout surge INC most likely got beaten by a BJP landslide.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 13, 2017, 05:49:36 AM
MP by-election in Chitrakoot results in INC retaining its seat

In 2013 it was
INC   37.2
BJP   28.3
BSP   19.7

Now it is (with BSP not contesting)
INC   54.0
BJP    42.6

In theory by-elections should create swings toward the ruling party, in this case, the BJP.  Overall it seems the INC gained slightly although one can argue that most of the BSP vote should have go toward INC and relative to that BJP did gain somewhat.  One way or another this seems to indicate INC gains in 2018 MP assembly elections.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 16, 2017, 07:15:54 AM
Looks like in the end NCP will join INC in an alliance but it its not clear that INC will take them or given INC a set of seats that NCP will accept.   The anti-Nitish Kumar Gujarat JD(U) which has some strength in tribal areas are also in talks with INC for an alliance have also bogged down due to disagreement on number of seats.  I suspect in the end a INC-JD(U)-NCP alliance will be worked out or they will hang seperately. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 16, 2017, 07:22:16 AM
It does not seem that ex-INC (also also ex-BJP) leader and former CM Vaghela's JVM (not to be confused with Jharkhand regional BJP splinter JVM) is really going anywhere.   Vaghela has been reduced to going on facebook to try to recruit candidates.  Overall most anti-BJP forces (JD(U), NCP, Patel leader Hardik Patel, Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakor) seems to be forming explicit or implicit alliances with INC which further marginalizes JVM.  Most likely JVM will end up in the low to mid single digits in terms of vote share.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on November 20, 2017, 06:02:05 PM
"Rahul Gandhi to be coronated on December 19 with a possible massive revival in the Congress party," a Times Now report claimed


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 02, 2017, 04:09:12 PM
So in the next federal election, will there be two JD(U) parties: one based in Bihar backing the NDA and one elsewhere backinh UPA?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2017, 06:23:23 PM
So in the next federal election, will there be two JD(U) parties: one based in Bihar backing the NDA and one elsewhere backinh UPA?

Correct.  The ECI has already ruled that the Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) will get the JD(U) symbol so the Sharad Yadav branch of JD(U) will need to get a new election symbol.

In Gujarat the JD(U) is lead by trival leader Chhotubhai Vasava who backs Sharad Yadav so most of the JD(U) in Gujarat will be allied with INC but the  Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) will get the JD(U) symbol.  What the  Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) (which is pretty much a non-entity) is doing this election is pretty sneaky.  The decided to nominate a candidate also called Chhotubhai Vasava on the JD(U) symbol to split the Chhotubhai Vasava vote.  Chhotubhai Vasava ran in 2012 on the JD(U) symbol but now the Nitish Kumar branch of JD(U) candidate with the same name and with the JD(U) symbol will be running making it hard for JD(U) supporter from figuring out which Chhotubhai Vasava to vote for.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 02, 2017, 06:24:46 PM
BJP did very well in the UP civic elections which bodes well for Gujarat later this month.  To be fair in 2012 when BJP did poorly in assembly elections the BJP also did well in UP civic elections.  This time BJP made gains on top of its pretty good performance in 2012.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 05, 2017, 09:14:38 PM
Lokniti-CSDS poll for Gujarat now has BJP and INC neck-to-neck

         Vote share   Seats
BJP         43%       95
INC         43%       82
Others                    5

()

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 06, 2017, 09:45:08 PM
Times Now-VMR poll still has BJP with a solid lead in Gujart

BJP         111
INC          68
others        3

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 06, 2017, 09:46:40 PM
CSDS poll and other voting history shows that BJP strong in cities and INC stronger in rural areas.  CSDS poll surge for INC mostly in rural areas.

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 06, 2017, 09:47:50 PM
NDTV poll of polls

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 08, 2017, 09:59:12 PM
Voting begins in Gujarat for phase 1

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: Sestak on December 08, 2017, 10:28:27 PM
Question:

Does INC's chances of ditching Rahul go up or down if they win??

Likewise if they lose...

Because honestly, dumping him is probably the only way to stop the Modi regime in 2019.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 08, 2017, 10:47:37 PM
In Bihar where JD(U) joined up with BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM now there is talk that RJD-INC will try to rope in CPI-CPM-CPI(ML) as well as RLSP and HAM.  RLSP and HAM lost influence in the NDA in Bihar with JD(U) now being in NDA.

Jitan Ram Manjhi of HAM was always close to Lalu Yadav and was in RJD in 1998-2005 period and of course he broke with Nitish Kumar back in 2015 when Nitish Kumar gabbed back the CM role.  Back in 2015 there were talk of HAM forming an alliance with RJD instead of BJP of RJD-JD(U) talks fell through.   Upendra Kushwaha's  RLSP is a JD(U) splinter and clearly Nitish Kumar does not view his former lieutenant  Upendra Kushwaha and turn rebel in a positive light.  So it would not be a large surprise if RLSP and HAM defect from NDA to join RJD.

Back in the 2015 Bihar elections I wrote a history of different political players and their alignment

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)



For 2019 LS election I guess now we can add

2019 LS (for now)
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + INC)

But if the RJD gambit works it might turn into
(BJP +  Nitish Kumar (JD(U))+ Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U) rebel faction) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + INC)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 08, 2017, 10:52:52 PM
Question:

Does INC's chances of ditching Rahul go up or down if they win??

Likewise if they lose...

Because honestly, dumping him is probably the only way to stop the Modi regime in 2019.

INC will never ditch Rahul Gandhi win or lose.  There are too many INC factions which are at each other throat so the only way for INC not to fall apart is to make sure that a Gandhi is at the helm. To be fair the Gujarat election campaign Rahul Gandhi seems to be actually a net asset for INC all things equal. 

There is no way Modi's NDA will lose in 2019.  Rahul Gandhi is playing for 2024.  He will let BJP crush various regional satraps for him and as long as he can keep INC in one piece when anti-incumbency builds up against BJP by 2024 Rahul Gandhi and his INC will be the only alternative to the BJP.  All things equal as long as Rahul Gandhi can keep INC together and stay being President of INC by 2024 he has a solid change of being PM.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 11, 2017, 06:07:33 AM
INC names Rahul Gandhi president


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 12, 2017, 09:22:57 AM
A critical factor in how well INC does in Gujarat is the level of Patel defection from BJP to INC.  In the end INC worked out a tactical alliance with Patel youth leader Hardick Patel who ended up backing INC after failing to get INC to commit to his demand that Patels will be part of the OBC quota.  This means the level of support Hardick Patel's movement for INC will be lukewarm.  Of course INC had no choice in this since caste quota politics is zero sum.  If INC came out for Patels being labeled as OBC then they will eat in the current OBC quota and the OBC vote will move en masse to BJP.  INC played it as well as it could which is to get  Hardick Patel backing without offending OBCs.

Right now it seems INC has played all the right cards: it got NCP support, rebel JD(U) support, OBC, Dailt and Patel youth movement support.   What BJP has is Modi which is still very popular in Gujarat.  In the end BJP will still win but with a reduced majority.  We will see what the exit polls say.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 13, 2017, 07:38:28 PM
Voting for second phase of Gujarat in progress.  There will be exit polls for both Gujarat and HP after voting ends.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 13, 2017, 07:43:55 PM
A couple of days ago Modi accused former INC PM Manmohan Singh of colluding with Pakistan including a recent secret meeting with Pakistani operatives to "install a Muslim CM for Gujarat in preparation for a Pakistan takeover of Gujarat."  It seems the BJP internal polling must be showing tight race or even BJP behind for Modi to go on this sort of attack.  Of course Modi and Singh meet today at Parliament to commemorate the 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament which must have been awkward for both

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 13, 2017, 07:45:54 PM
Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 06:45:51 AM
Voting ends in Gujarat.  Exit polls for Gujarat and HP out shortly.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 06:46:43 AM
HP past election results shows that INC and BJP always swaps places.  This time it is BJP's turn

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 06:59:52 AM
Economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla has predicted a comfortable win for BJP, according to CNN-News18.

BJP 125
Congress  57


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:05:28 AM
C-Voter for HP

           Vote share    seats
BJP         47.6           41
INC         44             25
Others      8.3            2

Which is a pretty good result under the circumstances

Back in 2014 LS vote share it was  BJP 54 INC 41

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:06:27 AM
Times Now Gujarat exit poll
            
           Vote share    seats
BJP        47%            109
INC        41%             70
Others   12%               3

()

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:08:48 AM
India Today HP exit poll which is more pro-BJP  (done by India Today-Axis My India )

BJP     51
INC     17
Others  1

(does not make sense as seats add up to 69 and not 68)

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:11:47 AM
C-Voter exit poll for Gujarat

        Vote share    seats
BJP       47.4%     108
INC       43.3%      74

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:15:16 AM
Sahara Samay exit poll for Gujarat

BJP    112
INC     68
Others  2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:21:01 AM
It looks like the place in Gujarat that the BJP is losing ground is Saurashtra where rural Patels dominate.  If the exit polls holds up then it seems Patles deserted BJP in rural areas but held up for BJP in urban areas.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:21:52 AM
Gujarat Times Now exit poll vote share by region

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:31:00 AM
SAHARA SAMAY-CNX exit poll for HP

BJP      47
INC      21


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:32:49 AM
TV9 Gujarat exit poll

BJP    108
INC     74


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:33:43 AM
India Today Gujarat exit poll

BJP      106
INC       75
Other      1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:37:56 AM
Republic TV Gujarat exit poll

BJP    115
INC     65
Others  2

Its pre-election survey was

BJP   118
INC    64


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:46:30 AM
Today's Chanakya   HP exit poll
         
        Vote share        Seats
BJP        51%              55
INC       38%               13
Others   11%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:52:17 AM
Overall picture from Gujarat Exit Polls results

Gujarat Exit Poll   BJP      Congress
Times Now         109        70
Republic TV        115        65
Sahara          110-120  65-75
TV-9                  108        74
India Today       99-113   68-82


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:55:29 AM
News Nation Gujarat exit polls (most pro-BJP so far)

BJP    126
INC     54
Others   2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:57:57 AM
News Nation HP exit polls

BJP    45
INC    21
Other   2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:00:11 AM
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:06:17 AM
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:09:26 AM
For Gujarat only Today's Chanakya's exit poll is still outsanding


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:10:43 AM
NDTV poll of exit polls for HP has

BJP    49
INC    18
Others 1


()

Based on

                          BJP         INC     Other
Newsx               42-50     18-24     0-2
News Nation       43-47     19-23    1-3
Axis                   47-55     13-20    0-2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:14:25 AM
Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll   BJP   Congress
Sahara Samay                     46       21
News24                               55      13
India Today                     47-55    13-20


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:15:53 AM
ABP-CSDS-LOKNITI  Gujarat exit poll

BJP     117
INC      64
Other     1

ABP-CSDS had the most anti-BJP pre-election survey but had one of the most pro-BJP exit poll.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:24:59 AM
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 10:23:24 AM
 C-Voter exit poll indicates that BJP increased its vote share among Muslims by 4.1% but lost around 10% of the Patel vote. India Today exit poll indicates that 27 seats will be within 1-2% which if INC wins most of them could give INC a narrow victory.  If so and the BJP does win then it could be the Muslim vote, ironically, that saved BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 10:26:40 AM
Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll   BJP   Congress
ABP-CSDS                         35-41   26-32
Zee News-Axis                     51         17
News X                             42-50   18-24
News Nation                      43-47   19-23
Sahara Samay                     46         21
Today's Chanakya                 55        13
India Today                        47-55   13-20
ABP-CSDS                           38         29


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 10:29:18 AM
Gujarat       Exit Poll     BJP    Congress
Today's Chanakya       135          47
News Nation               109          70
ABP-CSDS                  110          71
Times Now                 109          70
Republic                     115          65
Sahara                   110-120    65-75
TV-9                           108          74
India Today             99-113     68-82


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:53:29 PM
Gujarat exit poll average

                                BJP           INC       Others
Today's Chanakya       135          47            0
News Nation               109          70            3
ABP-CSDS                  117          64            1
Times Now                 109          70            2
Republic                     115          65            2
Sahara                       112          68            2
TV-9                          108          74            0
Nirmama                    104          74            4
India Today                106          75            1
---------------------------------------------------------
W Today's Chanakya   113          67            2
Wo Today's Chanakya  110         70            2


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 07:57:48 PM
HP exit polls average
                                          BJP       INC       Others
Today's Chanakya                 55        13             0
ABP-CSDS                            38        29             1
Zee News-Axis                     51         17             0
News X                                46        21             1
News Nation                         45        21             2
Sahara Samay                     46         21             1
India Today                         51         16             1
ABP-CSDS                           38         29             1
C-Voter                                41        25             1
-------------------------------------------------------------
W Today's Chanakya             46         21            1
Wo Today's Chanakya           45         22            1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:37:40 PM
Using my exit poll to projection algroithm

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

For Gujarat:
Times Now pre-elction poll was BJP 111 INC 68 got slightly more pro-INC
India Today Pre-election poll was 123 INC 58 got more pro-INC
ABP-CSDS pre-election poll was 95 INC 72 got more pro-BJP
Republic TV pre-election poll was BJP 117 INC 61 got more pro-INC

Its a mixed bag with a slight pro-INC momentum so I will go with the third best INC poll for a projection of  BJP 108  INC  74.  But since there is a slight pro-INC momentum plus it is a swing against the incumbent there is still a need to add a few seats to INC which gives us

BJP         103
INC          78
Others       1


For HP

C-Voter pre-election poll was BJP 52 INC 15 which got more pro-INC
ABP-CSDS pre-election poll was 42 INC 25 which is flat
Axix pre-election poll was BJP 45 INC 23 which got more pro-BJP

So it seems that the momentum was flat.  I will then go with the exit poll average without Today's Chanakya which gives us BJP 45 INC 22.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent we need to add a few seats to the opposition victorious party as well as take into account that HP tends to have fairly uniform swings which tends to give large seats swings for small vote share swings.  This would give us

BJP      51
INC      16
Others   1


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 14, 2017, 08:52:15 PM
If my projection ends up being accurate it is a fairly significant recovery of INC relative to 2014 and makes the results looks more in line with 2009 LS elections.

For Gujarat 2009 and 2014 LS vote share and assembly segment leads are

2014     vote share      leads
BJP            60.1%       165   
INC+         34.4%        17

2009     vote share      leads
BJP            46.5%       105   
INC            43.4%        76


For HP  2009 and 2014 LS vote share and assembly segment leads are

2014     vote share      leads
BJP            53.9%        59   
INC+         41.1%          9

2009     vote share      leads
BJP            49.6%         48
INC            45.6%        20



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 08:08:45 AM
BJP Upper House MP  Sanjay Kakade (who was elected as an independent in Maharashtra then joined BJP) said that a detailed survey he conducted in Gujarat of voting intentions shows that BJP will lose its majority and most likely finish behind INC.  He indicated that all the exit polls are off.  BJP "ally" SHS  head Uddhav Thackeray indicated the same based on his grassroots reports in Gujarat.   We will see soon.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:31:07 PM
NDTV analysis

Exit polls average show BJP 116 INC 65
()

Back in 2012 BJP underperformed exit polls
()

Exit polls historically underestimated the scale of victory
()


Men turnout increased and Women turnout decreased.  Men tend to vote INC, women tend to vote BJP
()

Patels swing away from BJP.  Dalis and tribals swing toward BJP
()

Muslims and rural voters tend to be fore INC.  Upper Caste Dalits and urban voters tend to vote BJP
()

BJP victory chance at 90%
()

Medium BJP seat count is around 115
()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:40:46 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat
BJP      6 (--)
INC+   2 (--)

HP
BJP     0
INC     0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:42:59 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
BJP    10 (--)
INC+   2 (--)

HP  (out of 68)
BJP     0
INC     0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:47:32 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
                 vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    22         --            -2
INC+   5         --            +2

HP  (out of 68)
                vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP     0
INC     0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:48:52 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far)

Gujarat (out of 182)
                 vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    24         --            -3
INC+   7         --            +3

HP  (out of 68)
                vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP     0
INC     0


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 09:55:51 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      36        +1           -5
INC+   10         --           +5
Others   0         -1            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a tie between BJP and INC (39 vs 37))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
INC       1       --              +1
BJP       0       --              -1
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (21 vs 9))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:00:59 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      49         --             -8
INC+   16         +2           +8
Others   0         -2            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (61 vs 39))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
INC       1       --              +1
BJP       0       --              -1
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:09:23 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      62         +2           -17
INC+   25         --            +17
Others   1         -2            --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (84 vs 52))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP       4        -2               -3
INC       2       +1              +2
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:12:51 PM
Counting begins (postal vote so far) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      66         -1           -21
INC+   32         +3          +21
Others   0         -2             --

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (90 vs 55))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP       7       +1               -2
INC       2       -2               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (27 vs 8  ))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:19:01 PM
Counting begins (mostly postal but some real results) - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      74         -4           -29
INC+   42         +6          +28
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 63))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      12      +5               -2
INC       4       -6               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (32 vs 10))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:24:57 PM
Counting begins - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      73       -12            -44
INC+   56       +14           +43
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (105 vs 65))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      13      +5               -2
INC       4       -6               +1
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (32 vs 10))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:25:52 PM
NDTV project 66% chance of BJP victory in Gujarat.  Based on exit polls it was 90% chance.  Count so far is better for INC than exit polls.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:29:14 PM
Counting begins - leads

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      71       -17            -55
INC+   67       +19           +54
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      14      +5               -3
INC       5       -6               +2
Others   1      +1              +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (33 vs 10))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:29:40 PM
INC is catching up fast in Gujarat.  BJP might be in trouble.  Most likely BJP will put it out but it will be close. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:33:53 PM
Counting begins - leads

BJP INC now neck-to-neck !!

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      75       -20            -61
INC+   74       +22           +60
Others   1         -2             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate a slight head for BJP over INC (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      14      +4               -7
INC      10      -4               +6
Others   1      --                +1   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (33 vs 10))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:43:20 PM
Counting begins - leads

BJP back to a slight lead

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      87       -20            -65
INC+   80       +23           +64
Others   1         -3             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (88 vs 90))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      21      +9               -10
INC      14      -9                +8
Others   2      --                 +2   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (26 vs 22))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:43:59 PM
HP seems closer to than expected.  This night not going BJP's way so far.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:47:53 PM
India stock market down 1.4%


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:53:56 PM
Counting begins - real results now

BJP back to a slight lead

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      91        -18            -68
INC+   84       +23           +67
Others   1         -5              +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (85 vs 94))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      26       +10           -15
INC      19        -8            +12
Others   3         -2             +3    
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (38 vs 23))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 10:59:52 PM
Counting begins - real results now

Local count in Gujarat actually show a INC lead !!!

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      91        -19            -69
INC+   85       +24           +68
Others   1         -5              +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate  BJP slight behind with INC (82 vs 97))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      33       +15           -15
INC      19       -12          +12
Others   3         -3            +3   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 25))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:01:16 PM
ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP   48.2%
INC  43.5%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  48.5%
INC  44.8%

which also implies a BJP victory but not a massive one


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:12:49 PM
Counting begins - real results now

BJP now slight lead from multiple sources

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      99        -15            -65
INC+   82       +21           +65
Others   0         -6             --

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (97 vs 81))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      40       +16           -16
INC      21       -14           +12
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (41 vs 25))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:14:07 PM
ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     47.9%
INC+  45.1%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  49.6%
INC  43.5%

which also implies a BJP victory but not a massive one


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:26:07 PM
Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    105        -10            -59
INC+   76       +15           +58
Others   1         -5             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (98 vs 80))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      39       +13           -20
INC      25       -11           +16
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:27:27 PM
ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     48.2%
INC+  44.2%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end

HP
BJP  49.4%
INC  42.8%

which also implies a significant BJP victory


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:33:17 PM
Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    108          -7            -57
INC+   73       +12           +56
Others   1         -5             +1

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (100 vs 79))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      42       +16           -17
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   4         -2            +4   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:47:06 PM
Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    105        -10            -60
INC+   74       +13           +57
Others   3         -3             +3

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (104 vs 75))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      39       +16           -20
INC      23       -14           +14
Others   6        --              +6   
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:56:32 PM
Leads

BJP opening a significant lead now

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    103        -12            -62
INC+   76       +15           +59
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 BSP, 1 INC rebel, 1 pro-AAP ind)

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (103 vs 75))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      41       +15           -18
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   5         -1             +5  (1 CPM, 2 INC rebel)
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (40 vs 24))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 11:58:08 PM
ECI has some early vote shares

Gujarat
BJP     48.9%
INC+  43.0%

which implies that BJP will pull out in the end with a victory greater than 100 seats

HP
BJP  49.8%
INC  42.7%

which also implies a significant  BJP victory but not a massive one


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 12:08:53 AM
Leads

Informal sources now match formal sources.  BJP wins Gujarat with a narrower margin and wins HP but does not land a landslide blowout on INC.

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP    103        -12            -62
INC+   78       +17           +61
Others   1         -1             +1 (INC rebel)

(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP slightly ahead again (103 vs 76))

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014
BJP      41       +15           -18
INC      22       -14           +13
Others   5         -1             +5  (1 CPM, 2 INC rebel)
(local informal sources seems to indicate BJP ahead of INC (41 vs 22))


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 05:29:33 AM
Leads and won

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share
BJP      98        -17            -68                               49.1%
INC+   81       +20           +65                               42.4%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.3%
INC      20       -16           +11                                42.0%
Others   4         -2             +4  (1 CPM, 2 BJP rebel)
 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 06:57:55 AM
Leads and won

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs

INC outperforming in terms of seats relative to vote share.  INC vote share holding up in HP.  BJP winning mostly be consolidating anti-INC vote.  In Gujarat a similar story as BJP vote share actually went up relative to 2012 (of course in 2012 BJP splinter GPP got 3.6% of the vote.)  INC doing better in Gujarat mostly by consolidating the anti-BJP vote.

Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.4%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.6%                   38.5%
INC      21       -16           +11                                41.9%                   42.8%
Others   3         -2             +4  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 06:59:59 AM
Indian markets which was down 1.4% when it seems BJP might lose Gujart is now up 0.4% with a BJP win (although narrow win.)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 07:38:00 AM
All the INC gains in Gujarat seems to from Saurashtra where rural Patels dominate.  So there was a rural Patel swing toward INC.  In the rest of Gujarat it seems the Patel swing toward INC was negated by a counter-swing of OBC and to some extent Dalits toward BJP.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 08:18:21 AM
Leads and won

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs

Gujarat almost done.  HP still have a bunch more to go.
 
Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.5%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.7%                   38.5%
INC      21       -15           +13                                41.8%                   42.8%
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 08:53:14 AM
Now that INC has lost HP, INC is now down to Karnataka, Punjab, Puducherry, Meghalaya and Mizoram. Only the first two are significant states.  And INC could end up losing Karnataka in next year's election. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 10:42:11 AM
Count done in Gujarat and almost done in HP

vote share include NOTA so will go up in the end once we filter out NULLs
 
Gujarat (out of 182)
                   vs 2012    vs 2014                         Vote share         2012 vote share
BJP      99        -16            -66                               49.1%                   47.9%
INC+   80       +19           +63                               42.5%                   39.7%
Others   3         -1             +3 (1 NCP, 1 INC rebel)
 
INC+ is (77 INC, 2 BTP (pro-INC JD(U) splinter, 1 pro-INC independent)

HP  (out of 68)
                  vs 2012    vs 2014                          Vote share        2012 vote share
BJP      44       +18           -15                                48.8%                   38.5%
INC      21       -15           +13                                41.8%                   42.8%
Others   3         -3             +3  (1 CPM, 1 BJP rebel)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 10:45:14 AM
BJP falls below the physiological barrier of 100 seats in Gujarat.   In many ways this election will be seen as a minor defeat of BJP and a moral victory for INC.  Rahul Gandhi gets a B- in his first test as INC Prez.  He got a respectable result and lives to fight another day.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 10:55:50 AM
If you filter out NULLs then the vote share are

Gujarat     2017        2014           2012
BJP          50.0%       60.1%        47.9%
INC+       43.3%       34.4%         39.7%

INC captures a bunch of anti-BJP votes while BJP reabsorbs BJP 2012 splinter GPP vote share of 3.6%.  It seems BJP-INC margin holds up in most places but BJP loses a lot of votes in  Saurashtra leading to INC getting a bunch of seats even as INC vote share did not rise that much.


HP           2017        2014           2012
BJP          49.0%       53.9%        38.5%
INC         42.2%       41.1%        42.8%

INC is pretty constant.  BJP's scale of victory is how much of the anti-INC vote it can win over.  2017 BJP vote share also reabsorbs BJP 2012 splinter HLP vote share of 1.9%.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 11:53:12 AM
The HP 2017 assembly election result looks a lot like the 2007 assembly election result in terms of seats

2007  Seats   Vote share
BJP      41         43.8%
INC      23         38.9%
Ind.       3
BSP       1           7.3%
CPM      0            0.6%

2017  Seats   Vote share
BJP      44         49.0%
INC      21         42.2%
Ind.       2
CPM      1            1.4%
BSP       0           0.5%

BSP lost its vote base to INC and BJP equally from 2007 to 2017.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 18, 2017, 09:26:10 PM
Saurashtra has a lot of framers and Patels.  Both demographics swung toward INC.

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: OSR stands with Israel on December 19, 2017, 02:02:34 AM
I think these results are great


BJP still wins but with a reduced majority which should send a message to Modi that he needs to start to deliver more on his promises instead of just being a non congress pm.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 19, 2017, 07:31:11 AM
I think these results are great


BJP still wins but with a reduced majority which should send a message to Modi that he needs to start to deliver more on his promises instead of just being a non congress pm.

Well, these set of elections show that when NDA is the incumbent at the state level the results are not that great (although better than INC.)  BJP really lost Goa and formed the government because of INC incompetence.  In Punjab SAD-BJP got crushed.  And now in Gujarat BJP lost ground despite the election being turned unto Modi-Amit Shah vs Rahul Gandhi in the Modi-Shah home state.  With BJP having to defend MP Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in late 2018.  MP will lean BJP but Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will be tossups on if INC can defeat BJP.  Most likely BJP will have to turn populist to prevent defeat in 2018.

In many ways Modi have been trying the economic reform path.  Demonetization was an ok idea but was not executed well. GST is a great idea but had a botched roll-out  I suspect what we seen from BJP is the extend of reforms until 2019.    BJP will most likely still win in 2019 and another round of reforms is possible after 2019.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 19, 2017, 07:41:01 AM
In many ways this Gujarat election was pretty sad. Neither BJP nor INC had any real local charismatic leader that can be the CM candidate and lead the campaign.  When BJP realized they were in trouble they pretty much had Modi and Amit Shah move and live in Gujarat this last month.  INC had to import local youth Patel Dalit and OBC leaders plus just hand the campaign over to Rahul Gandhi to run and lead.  In the end both weaknesses canceled each other out.  INC was able to take advantage of the Patel rebellion but that led to a OBC swing to BJP.  INC was also not able to take advantage of Upper Caste-Dalit conflict to swing back the Dalit vote toward INC.  On the other hand the Modi attempt to polarize around anti-Pakistan (read Muslim) feelings just like 2002 did not seem to have worked that well either.  

It also seems INC rebel Shankersinh Vaghela (ex BJP leader and former mentor of Modi as well as former RJP CM) splinter movement went nowhere and now INC has show it can do well without the Shankersinh Vaghela bloc of votes which was never that large in the first place, especially in a FPTP BJP vs INC election.  Most of the pro-Shankersinh Vaghela INC MLA defectors to BJP all lost to the INC candidate.  At least now with Shankersinh Vaghela clearly out of INC politics INC can try to build local mass leaders.  2022 will be won by the party that can build real local leaders.  


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 19, 2017, 09:08:32 AM
Lets review my post-exit poll prediction model which is

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

From Gujarat I projected
Its a mixed bag with a slight pro-INC momentum so I will go with the third best INC poll for a projection of  BJP 108  INC  74.  But since there is a slight pro-INC momentum plus it is a swing against the incumbent there is still a need to add a few seats to INC which gives us

BJP         103
INC          78
Others       1

Real result being

BJP         99
INC+      80
Others      3

I was pretty close to the real result.  I think INC+ over-performed relative to vote share due to it winning a bunch of marginal seats in Saurashtra.


For HP I projected
So it seems that the momentum was flat.  I will then go with the exit poll average without Today's Chanakya which gives us BJP 45 INC 22.  But since this is a defeat of an incumbent we need to add a few seats to the opposition victorious party as well as take into account that HP tends to have fairly uniform swings which tends to give large seats swings for small vote share swings.  This would give us

BJP      51
INC      16
Others   1

Real result being

BJP         44
INC         21
Others      3

I underestimated INC a bit and the result ended up being around the average of exit polls instead of my projection.  I still feel that BJP won a vote share that is more representative of the result I projected.  From a vote share point of view and assuming uniform swing my project should have been the result  and not what too place.  It seems INC over-performed in marginal battleground seats giving it more seats that the vote share it.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2017, 09:36:56 PM
In a shock, BJP's HP CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal who was CM of HP in 1998-2003 and 2007-2012 was defeated in Sujanpur.

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What took place was a old Prem Kumar Dhumal protege Rajinder Singh perused the BJP ticket for  Sujanpur in 2012 and was passed up.  He ran as a BJP rebel and won the seat in 2012.  This time around, certain of the BJP landslide, Prem Kumar Dhumal  decided to run in Sujanpur against Rajinder Singh who has since joined the INC.  In a total shock Rajinder Singh defeated his old mentor by a tiny margin.  Now the BJP will have to scramble to pick a CM with the possible side effect of internal rebellion by factions opposed to who the BJP picks.  Also  Prem Kumar Dhumal  will be waiting in the wings to get elected in a by-election and become an alternative center of power to the CM the BJP picked.



Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 07:25:35 AM
Today is voting for the TN assembly RK Nagar Bypoll.  The seat was vacated a year ago with the death of TN CM Jayalalitha.  The April by-poll which was turning into a AIADMK(EPS) vs AIADMK(Sasikala-OPS) vs DMK  was canceled  when AIADMK(sasikala-OPS)  leader and candidate TTV Dhinakaran was accused of  vot buying.  In the meantime EPS and OPS has merged leaving  Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran out in the cold leading a rebel AIADMK faction.

Today's election is DMK vs AIADMK vs AIADMK rebel TTV Dhinakaran with a weak BJP also running.    Up until now it seems a tight 3 way race.  As the voting took place today a shot in the arm for DMK took place when CBI special court acquitted several key DMK leaders in the 2G spectrum scam.  The 2G  spectrum scam which mostly trapped key DMK leaders as part of the UPA government in 2011 was key in leading to the defeat of DMK in the 2011 assembly elections and also added to the UPA defeat in 2014 and lead to the rise of Modi.  This acquittal will add tremendously to the DMK  and if TTV Dhinakaran does well in today's by-election (like come in second place or better) then 2019 LS election will see a divided AIADMK versus a surging DMK where a DMK-INC alliance could sweep the polls.

AIADMK above all else must avoid coming in  third place in today's byelection.  A strong showing by TTV Dhinakaran could mean the flow of defections which has been in favor of AIADMK from the TTV Dhinakaran rebel faction could reverse.  TTV Dhinakaran controls the main AIADMK money machine while the EPS-OPS AIADMK controls most of the cadres.  It will be a battle of money vs organization with DMK most likely now to win.

Various BJP sources are saying that AIADMK is doing poorly and the race as turned into DMK vs TTV Dhinakaran.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 07:27:04 AM
Leaked early exit polls has TTV Dinakaran ahead with 37%.  Nightmare for EPS-OPS led AIADMK.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 21, 2017, 10:19:08 PM
RK Nagar by-election exit poll has

AIAMDK rebel  TTV Dinakaran   37%
AIADMK                                  26%
DMK                                       18%
BJP                                          2%
Others                                    17%

Not sure what this Others 17% is since all the other candidates are fairly minor.  Most likely they are "refused to answer."   10% said they were offered cash to vote for a particular candidate.   The going rate seems to be around $100. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 05:55:42 PM
RK Nagar by-election result to come out over the next few hours.  What is funny is that the April RK Nagar by-election was halted because of allegations of massive vote buying.  The market back then was around $70 a vote.  This time it seems the vote buying is just as massive and blatant but the market rate has gone up to $100 a vote.  Also back in April it seems that it was AIADMK(Sasikala-OPS) TTV Dinakaran that was doing the vote buying.  It was assumed that it was AIADMK rebel TTV Dinakaran that is the force behind the vote buying. But reports from the ground seems to show that it is the official AIADMK(EPS-OPS) camp that is doing most of the vote buying despite the fact that it is well know that TTV Sasikala-Dinakaran is the money power behind AIADMK.  I guess with AIADMK(EPS-OPS) in change of TN state government they have resources too now to throw into the election. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 09:10:19 PM
Vote counting to start soon.  If we look at the 3 blocs (DMK, AIADMK, AIADMK rebel TTV) and look at a game theory view of their ranked preferences on how the 3 blocs finish I think it would be:

                                 DMK      AIADMK      TTV
DMK-AIADMK-TTV          2             3           4/5
DMK-TTV-AIADMK          1           4/5            3
AIADMK-DMK-TTV        4/5            1             6
AIADMK-TTV-DMK          6             2           4/5
TTV-DMK-AIADMK          3             6             1
TTV-AIADMK-DMK        4/5          4/5            2

DMK want to win but also prioritize AIADMK TTV rebels doing well to help keep it viable so it can split the AIADMK(EPS-OPS) vote in the future.  AIADMK and TTV both view each other as the main enemy than the DMK since this election is also about an AIADMK civil war.  Beating DMK is secondary to both blocs.  Both AIADMK(EPS-OPS) and AIADMK rebel TTV are looking to knock the other side out and claim complete and undisputed mantel of Jalaylalitha's AIADMK. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 09:53:10 PM
There is one postal vote which DMK won

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 09:55:10 PM
After first round it is

TTV          598
AIADMK    243
DMK         120

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 10:19:29 PM
TTV          822
AIADMK    423
DMK         184

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Looks like DMK is on its way out of this race.  It will be TTV vs AIADMK.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 10:26:02 PM
TTV         1891
AIADMK    646
DMK         360


()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 10:30:06 PM
TTV         5399
AIADMK   2737
DMK        1181

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 10:35:12 PM
Celebrations start at TTV residence


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 11:11:31 PM
Counting has stopped as AIADMK supporters attack ECI officials. Paramilitary forces brought in.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 11:16:56 PM
TTV         7276
AIADMK   2738
DMK        1182

(this seems incomplete as the count stop might have stopped other AIADMK and DMK votes from being in the total)

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 23, 2017, 11:18:41 PM
BJP is behind NOTA

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Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 06:29:18 AM
With the count almost done it is

TTV         86474  (50.1%)
AIADMK   47118  (27.3%)
DMK        24075  (14.0%)

()

So the exit polls mostly got it right although they underestimated TTV's lead

There seems to be a lot of DMK->TTV tactical voting.  DMK usuuall gets around 35%-40% of the vote in RK Nagar but it seems the main issue in this election was the leadership of the AIADMK so DMK voters voted their preference


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 06:36:31 AM
Vellore AIADMK MP B.Senguttuvan who was previously in TTV Dhinakaran camp and had moved EPS-OPS faction is once again back with TTV. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 06:43:25 AM
The AIADMK candidate is the ex-MLA of this district when Jayalalitha had contested elsewhere so he is a very credible candidate.  This level of defeat for both AIADMK and DMK is a shock.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 06:53:59 AM
I think we are done

TTV         89013  (50.3%)
AIADMK   48306  (27.3%)
DMK        24651  (13.9%)
NTK           3645   (2.1%) (extreme Tamil nationalist party)
NOTA         2348   (1.3%) (None of the above)
BJP            1436   (0.8%)

Looks like 4.6% voted for various miscellaneous independent candidates.  In that sense the exit poll having 17% for others which seems crazy did seem to get that trend kind of right although not the scale.  I figured it was no way in such a polarized election that the various "others" can get anything more than 1%-2%.

()


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 07:17:49 AM
It seems the power of the AIADMK two leaves symbol

()

Is overrated.  AIADMK(EPS-OPS) won the ECI case to win over the symbol which lead to an exodus  of TTV supporters over to AIADMK(EPS-OPS) but it seems that the number of voters that vote two leaves no matter way seems is smaller than expected.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 07:20:02 AM
The alleged amount of money dumped into this by-election breaks all Indian election records by far.  So in the end it seems TTV dumped more money into this race then many had expected even though the ground level reports seems to indicate that AIADMK(EPS-OPS) vote buying exceeded TTV.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 08:09:09 AM
DMK's poor performance are raising talk that DMK threw this race on purpose and had their key voting blocs vote TTV to sew chaos in the AIADMK camp.  If that is the case they risk TTV taking over the AIADMK completely and emerge as a rival to DMK-INC in 2019 given the usually large nature of TTV's victory. 


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 24, 2017, 08:20:29 AM
In the end the RK Nagar by-election was an issue-less campaign at the grassroots.  Most interviews of voters were all about "why is it that X got $N for his/her vote but I got nothing?"  The general view of the grassroots voter is that since the government steals money from the exchequer then it is fine for the voters to take money since it is merely getting their money back.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on December 31, 2017, 10:33:19 PM
Tamil film superstar Rajinikanth

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Announced today that he will form a political party in TN and will contest all seats in the 2021 TN assembly elections.  Not clear if his new party will contest 2019 LS elections.  Not clear what impact this will have.  All things equal this will most likely benefit the divided AIADMK than the DMK.  I think on the long run his new party will end up the same as TN film superstar Vijayakanth's DMDK party once its novelty factor wears off.  But it might be a disruptive force in TN for an election cycle or two.


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 01, 2018, 07:10:17 AM
2017 Gujarat assembly results

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+         182               80              43.27%    (BTP which is JD(U) splinter part of INC+)

INC rebel                         2                0.75%
NCP            58                 1                0.63%
AIHCP         95                 0                0.28%    (INC rebel Vaghela outfit)

BJP           182               99              49.97%

BJP rebel                        0                  1.07%
 
BSP          139                0                  0.70%

Back in 2012 BJP+GPP+BJP rebels got 52.67% of the vote.  Now it went down to 51.04%.  Back in 2012 INC+allies+NCP+INC rebels got 40.71% of the vote (41.38% if we add in 2012 JD(U) vote on the theory that most of the 2012 JD(U) vote went to BTP which then joined up with INC+ in 2017.)  Now it went up to 44.93%.  The INC comeback in Gujarat is more about INC consolidating the anti-BJP vote.  Also note that there is a limit to this since even if NCP joined the INC+ front it would have only taken away one more seat from BJP.   It seems even without Modi as CM the BJP has the electoral strength to win a small majority in Gujarat.

Vaghela's JVM which allied with the INC Rajasthan splinter AIHCP and ran on the AIHCP symbol went nowhere in a very polarized election.    It seems that Vaghela has nowhere to go other than retirement or crawling back to BJP who will most likely take him in for old times sake (he was the political mentor of Modi after all.)


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on January 03, 2018, 07:47:00 AM
Are all Tamil politicians celebrities?


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 03, 2018, 12:22:55 PM

Yes.  Mainly in cinema. 
DMK founder C. N. Annadurai was a film script writer
DMK leader M. Karunanidhi was also in screenwriting
AIADMK founder MGR was an actor
AIADMK ex-leader Jayalalitha was an actress
DMDK founder Vijayakanth is a actor


Title: Re: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat
Post by: jaichind on January 03, 2018, 12:40:13 PM
I will start a India 2018 assembly elections thread soon now we are in 2018.

2018 assembly elections are

Meghalaya (Feb 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA (BJP plus NDA parties like pro-BJP NCP splinter
                                    NPP).  BJP-NPP will pose a real challenge to INC

Tripura (March 2018) - Left Front incumbent vs INC vs NDA (Left front has Bengali vote, Tribal vote
                                   unclear, as it could go INC or BJP+various tribal allies).  Left front will win
                                    with the tribal vote split between INC and BJP+

Nagaland (March 2018) - NPF incumbent (BJP ally) vs INC.  NPF+BJP most likely too strong for INC
                                     to overcome.

Karnataka (May 2018) - INC incumbent vs BJP vs JD(S).  Not clear if JD(S) will form tactical alliance
                                      with BJP or INC or truly go it alone.  INC would be lucky to emerge as the
                                       largest party

Mizoram (Dec 2018) - INC incumbent vs NDA(BJP plus MNF and ZNP).  BJP+MNF+ZNP could pose a
                                    real challenge to INC which had been dominate in this state

Chhattisgarh(Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Chhattisgarh is INC's PA.  Close but no cigar in
                                      2003 2008 and 2013 with narrow losses to BJP.  This time INC should win
                                      but INC rebel Ajit Jogi JC will make it a 3 way fight could throw the
                                      election to BJP

Madhya Pradesh (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Second most pro-BJP state after Gujarat.   
                                            INC will make gains like 2017 Gujarat but most likely will not win.           

Rajasthan (Dec 2018) - BJP incumbent vs INC.  Rajasthan has been very elastic historically and
                                   even though INC was crushed in 2013 there is a better than even odds INC
                                     comes back to power in a narrow win over BJP