Title: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Gass3268 on September 30, 2016, 06:01:40 AM
Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
Source (http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001)
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
Source (http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001)
Title: FL-Mason Dixon Clinton +4
Post by: SunSt0rm on September 30, 2016, 06:04:36 AM
Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: mark_twain on September 30, 2016, 06:11:42 AM
Good result for Clinton.
Compared to the result of AUG 22-24, it is an improvement of +2.
Compared to the result of AUG 22-24, it is an improvement of +2.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Gass3268 on September 30, 2016, 06:13:06 AM
Before our resident unskewer asks, this poll is 41% Dem 39% Rep.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on September 30, 2016, 06:13:46 AM
This is great news!
Title: Re: FL-Mason Dixon Clinton +4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 30, 2016, 06:25:22 AM
Splendid poll. Hillary is spanking Trump harder than a teenager spanks his monkey during a YouPorn watching session.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PollsDontLie on September 30, 2016, 06:52:04 AM
Ouch :(
Title: Re: FL-Mason Dixon Clinton +4
Post by: Person Man on September 30, 2016, 07:08:42 AM
Needless to say, Emperor Pepetine is displeased.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PollsDontLie on September 30, 2016, 07:08:51 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Gustaf on September 30, 2016, 07:13:14 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PollsDontLie on September 30, 2016, 07:17:34 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: afleitch on September 30, 2016, 07:19:54 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
!
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PollsDontLie on September 30, 2016, 07:24:30 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
!
I'm fine with it if that's what MD wants to use, I just prefer stricter LV screens. It stands to reason that if you call 800+ people, chances are that not every one is going to vote.
But admittedly, I missed that sentence in the article. It's probably a similar LV screen to what some other pollsters use (in fact, PPP used the same screen in 2008, I believe, when they got stellar results). In a super high turnout situation it works well.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: chrisras on September 30, 2016, 07:42:53 AM
+2 post debate bounce.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Brittain33 on September 30, 2016, 08:14:38 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PollsDontLie on September 30, 2016, 08:24:46 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.
Fair point. I concede.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: mark_twain on September 30, 2016, 08:36:45 AM
+2 post debate bounce.
Even better...the +2 is relative to mid-Aug numbers, when Clinton had the upper hand in FL.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Eraserhead on September 30, 2016, 08:42:53 AM
It looks like Trump is in rough shape after blowing that debate.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Gustaf on September 30, 2016, 08:49:16 AM
Just noticed that this is RV. Why is anyone doing RV at this stage?
...no?
"A total of 820 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were
likely to vote in the November general election."
A voter's indication that he/she is likely to vote isn't a reliable LV screen.
"Indicated" doesn't necessarily mean "said," it could mean that they answered questions that indicated they were likely voters.
Fair point. I concede.
Seeing someone admit a mistake is pretty rare on here, so kudos. :)
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on September 30, 2016, 09:37:20 AM
SWEET JUMPIN' JACKRABBITS!!!
Trumpster can't lose that Florida.
(
)
That is a loss, ladies and germs.
Trumpster can't lose that Florida.
(
That is a loss, ladies and germs.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: RJEvans on September 30, 2016, 09:38:52 AM
I hope this holds. I'll take 270 EV but I want 300+.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Mallow on September 30, 2016, 09:58:25 AM
Before our resident unskewer asks, this poll is 41% Dem 39% Rep.
Don't worry, he only shows up IF he can "unskew" (or otherwise spin it for Trump).
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on September 30, 2016, 10:03:19 AM
if hillary gets FL she is going to get some other states too....so 300+ would be a done thing.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Xing on September 30, 2016, 10:48:02 AM
Looks like those Angry FL Women are taking a dump on Trump! If only the state could collectively grow a brain and dump the Senator who approves of Trump, as well.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on September 30, 2016, 11:59:00 AM
Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Gustaf on September 30, 2016, 12:02:25 PM
Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Not anymore, I don't think. But if anything I believe they tend to be Republican friendly so very solid result for Clinton.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: ProudModerate2 on September 30, 2016, 12:28:48 PM
Happy Days are here again !
Yeah !
()
Yeah !
()
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: NOVA Green on September 30, 2016, 04:31:59 PM
Dang!
those 90-1 numbers among African-Americans is insane.
Also, the leads in SE FL, and most critically +7 in the Tampa-St Pete area aren't looking positive for Trump.
Granted he does have a significant lead with the 50+ crowd and Anglo voters that vote more reliably than Latino voters.
Florida will come down to turnout and GOTV most likely.
those 90-1 numbers among African-Americans is insane.
Also, the leads in SE FL, and most critically +7 in the Tampa-St Pete area aren't looking positive for Trump.
Granted he does have a significant lead with the 50+ crowd and Anglo voters that vote more reliably than Latino voters.
Florida will come down to turnout and GOTV most likely.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: PikaTROD on September 30, 2016, 06:59:18 PM
Good numbers, good numbers, just gotta hold that lead for 5 weeks........
5 weeeeeeeeeeeeeekkkksssss..............
Can we just do the Florida voting now and the rest the states later?
5 weeeeeeeeeeeeeekkkksssss..............
Can we just do the Florida voting now and the rest the states later?
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 30, 2016, 07:23:42 PM
Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Regardless, glorious news!!!
FWIW in 2012 they stopped polling Florida weeks before the election saying it was safe for Romney.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 30, 2016, 07:30:28 PM
Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Regardless, glorious news!!!
FWIW in 2012 they stopped polling Florida weeks before the election saying it was safe for Romney.
That was Suffolk. Mason-Dixon actually released a poll about a week before the election showing Romney 5 points ahead.
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 30, 2016, 07:53:54 PM
Isn't Mason-Dixon considered the gold standard of polls in Florida (or am I mistaking it with another)?
Regardless, glorious news!!!
Regardless, glorious news!!!
FWIW in 2012 they stopped polling Florida weeks before the election saying it was safe for Romney.
That was Suffolk. Mason-Dixon actually released a poll about a week before the election showing Romney 5 points ahead.
You are correct, My bad.
They did miss Florida badly in 2012, had romney +6 4 days before the election and said "Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida."
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/13/165062730/a-week-later-pollster-says-i-was-drinking-that-republican-kool-aid
Title: Re: Mason Dixon - Florida: Clinton +4
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 30, 2016, 08:08:29 PM
Mason-Dixon was the Florida gold standard until, when the choked. They had Obama and Romney tied with Hispanics. Not good.