Talk Elections

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7
OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 46 - Trump 43, Johnson 7

OHIO: Trump 47 - Clinton 42, Johnson 6, Stein 1

PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 45 - Trump 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2384

EDIT: feel free to delete since poll already posted

Christ, Ohio might really be lost for Hillary.

I'm overall happy with these numbers, though.

Oh wow, time to flip NC blue on 538's polls plus :)

New Quinnipiac polls:

Florida

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 5%

North Carolina

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 43%
Johnson: 7%

PA

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 5%

Ohio

Trump: 47%
Clinton: 42%
Johnson: 6%

Not great but that still equals a President Clinton

OH, what are you doing!? Things are looking extremely dire for Trump especially in FL and NC. PA is Likely D, as expected.

lol okay

Ohio becoming the new Missourah.

Head to head:

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 44
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 43
OH: Trump 49, Clinton 46
NC: Clinton 49, Trump 46

Question is if +4 is enough of a margin for Clinton to drag in McGinty.

I will GLADLY trade Ohio and Florida. These numbers aren't "great" but they aren't bad by any stretch.

"From September 27 - October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

545 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points;
507 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
497 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points;
535 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points."

What are you doing Ohio?

Weird to see FL and NC more blue than PA and even OH.

I expect Johnson and Stein's share to get cut in half again. OH will be really close come Nov

Florida Party ID: 33D/30R/32I
Florida Demographics: 63W/15B/16H/6 other

Pennsylvania Party ID: 38D/31R/27I
Pennsylvania Demographics: 77W/12B/5H/7 other

Ohio Party ID: 33D/31R/30I
Ohio Demographics: 84W/11B/1H/3 other

North Carolina Party ID: 33D/28R/33I
North Carolina Party ID: 65W/21B/5H/9 other

All these numbers look OK except for Ohio's demographics. The electorate in Ohio will be 79-80% white, not 84% white

Maybe everyone has been too hard on Strickland for not being able to win an impossible race.

In the 4-way…Trump gets between 84 and 89% of Republicans in these four polls, while Clinton’s share of the Dem vote varies all the way between 81% and 92%.

Ohio gender gap is 39 points:

men:
Trump 58%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 8%
Stein 1%

women:
Clinton 51%
Trump 39%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

Consistent with other polls we’ve seen of Southern states, Clinton’s share of the white non-college vote in North Carolina is pretty dismal (19%), whereas she manages 34% of non-college whites in Ohio, despite the fact that overall she’s winning the former and losing the latter.  Of course, part of it is that Trump is winning whites with a college degree by double digits in the Ohio poll, and only leads them by 1 in NC.

Clinton has work to do in Ohio, but the other numbers are very, very good.

Ohio is disappointing, but if that is the price we have to pay for FL and NC then so bit.

I have a hard time believing that PA is to the right of FL, and that OH is that much more Republican than the other swing states, but I'll take Hillary winning two out of the three must-win states for Trump.

Acceptable & Happy.
8-)

I believe every post-debate poll of FL and NC has shown Clinton ahead

This is pre-LeBron endorsement ftr

Johnson and Stein's vote share has collapsed from 14 to 7%. Just like everyone expected.

Not many athlete endorsements matter but LeBron's does for OH

It's still blurry, but I see the following map coming into focus:

()

Clinton 322
Trump 216

OH is gone and i would be more than pleased if PA holds against pull of OH and the general grief of the coal empire.

seems as good as it could get right now.

Ohio is not gone.  This sample is too white, he's doing WAY better with colleged-whites than he's doing in any other poll, and the guy still doesn't have a ground game or GOTV effort.  Even having said that, Hillary doesn't need it.  I'll take the glorious, diverse trifecta of NC, FL, and CO thank you very much over the crumbling WCW empires.

I'll take those results.

OH looks a little disappointing, but who knows...the polls next week might be different.

This set of polling explains why it appears Clinton has gone to a more left-wing populist tone on the campaign trial today in Ohio.

Is that even going to help at all considering how ravenously Ohioans are gobbling up Donald's toxic rot?

Yep. Still Wikileaks to come. ;)

As I've been saying on this board over and over again, this election is the culmination of years of gradual Republican loss of minority and college-educated White voters. Of all the current RCP swing states, I'll go on record as saying that from largest to smallest Clinton support, the order will be:

Minnesota
Colorado
Michigan
Maine
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
North Carolina
Nevada
Georgia
Arizona
Ohio
Iowa

I'd keep an eye on PA.

It looks like Trump could score a surprise win there, but of course he'll also need to win FL and NC to overcome the Hillary wins in CO and VA ...

The transformation continues unabated...

()

Tender, can you kindly elaborate on the weird happenings going down in PA that will deliver Keystone to the Donald?

One thing to keep in mind with these polls and pretty much everything out today: They were conducted either entirely or mostly before Trump's tax story broke. Only the debate/Machado are baked into these numbers.

Well people have been predicting for years that the Midwest would trend R and the Sun Belt would trend D. This election may be the first time that you see states like North Carolina and Florida be more Democratic than states like Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, which will continue into the foreseeable future.

I'm willing to bet that the release of Trump's tax return will have a bigger effect on the polls than Wikileaks.

Lmao.

Based on what evidence? Trump has led in just 2 polls since last year. He may increase margins in rural areas of PA, but he is going to get blown out even worse then Romney did in the suburbs and cities.

It's just not happening.

Muh Loozerne Countuh...

I think it's probably safe to say FL and NC are too left and that PA and OH are probably on the right side. But these are strong numbers for Clinton with 5 weeks to go, barring Ohio. Ohio's days as a bellweather may have passed them by.

We need PPP polls of WI, MN & MI.

No Senate #s?

what's going on with the people of Ohio?!

If Sherrod Brown loses in 2018 than Ohio Democrats might just be dead forever.

So must do Thom Tillis and Cory Gardner.

What makes you say that? I canKt recall 2012's turnout numbers offhand, but theses sound about right.

Why those states in particular?

Is there a concern that the Upper Midwest might not have had the same post debate bounce, that apparently we are seeing in statewide polls in the SW and SE?

OH was 80% white in 2012.

I don't see any reason why WI, MN and MI are that much of a concern, the OH dynamics and to a lesser extent, PA aren't likely to be repeated there.

+5 in FL and +3 in NC are great numbers. If they aren't outliers, then Hillary is in a very solid position with the Electoral College.

Hopefully she's ahead by more than that in PA though.



John Kasich is indeed a very lopular politician. ;D

These numbers are unrealistic when considered together.
They show that pollsters are unsure about the turnout model.

Since the coming election will be a low turnout election - essentially the war of the bases, the election results will depend mostly on whose voters show up to vote.

Due to this, it will be difficult to poll the electorate accurately and we will not be sure that even the final polls will give us the right picture.

That sounds like the Romney refrain in 2012, which I believed in myself. It turned out poorly for him.

Not at all.  It's clear that in this election OH has moved to the right and NC to the left relative to the average.  With that in mind, these results are reasonable assuming a Clinton national lead of 4 or so.  Polls are naturally going to come in on both sides of the mean (if they consistently don't do so, it's suspicious.)  Expecting polls from different states, even by the same pollster in the same time period, to be perfectly in line with each other is misguided.

Exactly, one needs to consider the MoE on multiple polls (about 4% in this case).

Until now, Quinnipiac has been very friendly to Republican candidates. Without a switch in methodology, polls that don't look so good for Republicans may indicate a change, and not for the better. These polls may show a Trump collapse underway, and polls under that circumstance are unstable because the situation is itself unstable.

If this will be a low-turnout election, then which potential voters will fail to show up at the polls? If the stay-at-homes are Republicans, then Hillary Clinton wins and Republicans take a beating in the Senate races. 

Looks like Quinnipiac choked like a dog. Where are the senate numbers?