Talk Elections

Surprised no one posted anything about this so far.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37540139

Poor PiS, I wonder how it will end. It is obvious that leadership of party do not wanted that project of legal act to be coped with now (or at any time probably) but I am not sure if as PiS probably will not impose voting discipline in the voting on the project and potential PiS alternative project there will be similar situation as in 2007 with Marek Jurek & co.


And that is maybe my observation but actually Church is not that active in that issue as most of the abortionists want, last Sunday on mass in my parish sermon was dedicated to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_John_Paul_II_Day and it was based on KEP list. Some bishops sometimes say something but there is no massive action in support for that.

yes that's nice and all #solidarity but let me read the 67th article about the tragic horrors which Kim Kardashian went through today!

i will make sure to tweet about this though.

"OK, let's make a gesture toward part of our base by allowing this to proceed to second reading. I mean, it's not like people will care..."

Well, they really had no choice. But worth noticing is that JarKacz wanted second project issued by "Ratujmy Kobiety" initiative to be proceeded but most of the irrelevant MPs rejected it. Now PiS have 3 MPs over necessary amount to have majority, any major break-up will lead to next elections so they must somehow cope with that project but they can't "kill it" brutally, because part of their electorate will probably not be happy and maybe drift to some other parties (to be honest I don't get it that some people really still thinks that PiS is some bulwark of Christian values etc.)

Are any other parliamentary parties supporting the ban?

I don't think any issued the "official" support, including PiS. PiS main talking point is "well, it's a citizens' initiative, so we let it proceed," (though, as mentioned by kaatak, the opposing "Ratujmy Kobiety" project did not proceed.)

I could imagine some PSL types voting in favor (if it's ever actually brought to vote), but for other opposition parties it's either "save muh abortion compromise" or liberalization. The so-called "compromise" was established in 1990s and provided abortion being allowed in "special circumstances" (like rape, incest, danger to health, etc.) Schetyna (current PO leader) proposed adding this to the constitution ("muh moderate") and received severe backlash.

To be fair to this part of the electorate there's hardly any alternative, with LPR being eaten back in 2007 and a difficulty for any new party to break into the parliament (My facebook friend from Razem, yes, you're not "winning" the next election, lol.)

Doesn't Kukiz oppose abortion as well?

The main difference is being between opposing "abortion on demand" and "all abortions, no exceptions." I'd need to check Kukiz, but I think he'd rather be on the former side.

As far as I know PSL or at least officially as its leader said they are supporting status quo so the current law. PO is also supporting current so called "compromise", although there might be maybe one or two MPs which would support that act but probably after all those protests they will not do that. In more conservative PSL similar situation, although they might support potential PiS alternative project which still do not exist and is only still a declaration.



Kukiz'15 do not impose any official statement about abortion although most of its MPs was not supporting "yes" option in voting about rejecting the project "Stop Aborcji". Although some of its MPs including one from my electoral district consider all that abortion buzz as smokescreen to the CETA issue, and would probably be happy if there will be no that situation at all. Probably the most supporting the ban is nationalist faction inside the Kukiz15 parliamentary club.

Oh yeah, and as for the minor forces in parliament there are also two groups which are not clubs but minor groups which are called "koła" and I don't know how to call them.

One, Europejscy Demokraci (4 MPs, one of its members I have on signature but probably only Kalwejt will find it funny) was against the project (so voted yes in voting about rejecting the project) and second group is Wolni i Solidarni (3 MPs, group created around Kornel Morawiecki which members are outcasts from Kukiz15) voted in support of the project, so against rejection.



HOW DARE YOU [TRIGGERED]

Is this Kamiński?

()

YES

I thought the government had withdrawn it? ???

Anyway, massive FFs.

They moved it to the works in the parliamentary commission what in practice means that they will vote on that project, or its slightly changed form in some point in future.

There's always a "legislative freezer" (something PiS was frequently accusing PO of doing).

Btw, how did it go in Łódź, kaatak?

There were march in last weekend which I must say was extraordinarily big (media usually report that there were few thousands participants) as for the Łódź (well, it is enough to say that people there are not really keen in expressing their political views in form of manifestation or marches), it was co-organised by KOD so that also probably helped. As I noticed on photos most of the taking part were mainly women in age in range 35-60, which is somehow logical knowing the age structure and feminisation ratio. As for the yesterday I don't know if there was anything organised, probably main event was scheduled for last Sunday. Razem also took part.

Well, given that we kind of sucked in doing large manifestations after '89, I was surprised too.

I know I'll probably be disappointed by the answer, but... any chance that SLD (or a competing left-wing party) will benefit from the protest's success and use it to (re)establish itself as a credible political force?

No. They are not even visibly active during the protests. Some minor leaders participated in organized events but this was way too little to make people actually think that SLD is political power which is worth the vote. The only potential beneficent is .Nowoczesna (ALDE) although there were not initiators of the protests.

Nowacka's been very active and visible during the whole thing. Then again, she's not SLD.

Just when you think "it happens only in America".

Archbishop of Warszawa-Praga Henryk Hoser said there's no need for allowing abortion for rape, because it's very rare for a woman to get pregnant from rape, cuz some stuff.

Best part? Hoser is actually a MD. Of course after Jill Stein it doesn't matter much.

Well probably now we will have massive anti-abortion protests because on the PiS motion Sejm Justice and Human Rights commission rejected the whole project. Facebook is currently being flooded by angry posts. Brace yourselves.

What is more funny PO wanted to recall that commission meeting and its decisions as they say it was unconstitutional (term was not legally ok) so they if they want or not defended the Ordo Iuris project. Circus, everybody trolled by Kaczyński, even his own MEPs because as far as I know they still defended the project in the PE which dozens minutes ago had debate about situation of women in Poland (also in context of abortion laws).


As I said earlier I really wasn't thinking they will do that with such brutality but still I don't understand how so many people were able to believe that "hurr evil Kaczyński want to jail women durr"

This reminds me of Orwell's 1984 with a speaker blasting Eurasia before he received memo it's Eastasia that's bad now and corrects himself.

I'm a bit surprised, though. I expected it being kep in the freezer until things calm down. But Kaczyński is everything but idiot.

So it's over?

Btw, little off-topic, but here's the recent poll (MB):

PiS: 30% (-3)
.Nowoczesna: 22% (+4)
PO: 16% (-3)
Kukiz: 8% (+1)
SLD: 5%
Korwin: 5% (+2)
---------------------
Razem: 4
PSL: 2

Lol PSL. Please die already.
`

Also, how is Nowoczesna different than PO exactly? Sorry for all the dumb noob questions, but I haven't been able to follow Polish politics much lately. :-\

Practical difference on European level: PO belongs to the EPP while Nowoczesna to ALDE.

1. PO is first of all party of power which lost power. They have more members, a lot of members on local level, in local power ruling bodies, a lot of cash and still some political power. Nowoczesna is party of mainly one man and few his goons. I don't know anyone who knows more than 2 MPs of Nowoczesna.
2. PO is maybe not considered in Poland as conservative party but still they are more conservative socially than .N.
3. Nowoczesna is as Kal said member of ALDE so they are more liberal, both in terms of economy (for example they were against minimal wage [all but one MP] and they are for example now against changes in shopping regulations as for the trading on Sundays) and social issues.

Ugh. Oh well. I guess SOCIALLY LIBERAL BUT FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE is the best you can hope for in Poland these days.

Now that you've mentioned it, I can't name more. It's good pal Richard Swetru all over.

Just to explain: Petru (his name) -> Swetru from Sweter (sweater)

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Other thing that Ryszard Petru beside being economist he is known of saying a lot of stupid things, I don't know if he just say things too fast, before thinking about them or he is just stupid but well, he is not the best person in terms of communication with media.


 


I remember 4: Petru, Lubnauer (she is from my electoral district), Scheuring-Wielgus and Gasiuk-Pihowicz (because she is not the brightest person in the Sejm).

One recent example, after one of Nowoczesna's politicians came out as gay. Soon after Petru, in an interview, said something like "well, I'm not against gays but they should't show it openly" (I don't remember an exact quote).

Razem is now attempting to take full credit, lol.

This is pathetic XD

State TV made a stunning discovery: various anti-government protests being attended by the same mysterious individual...

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Oh wait, that's Marek Kossakowski. Green co-chair and Solidarity veteran. Yet this mysterious connection somehow became a major news.


(I s**t you not).

This is why an abortion ban wouldn't work in the US.

I think I'll just leave it here with no comment: http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/275168,PiS-chief-Women-should-give-birth-even-to-deformed-babies-so-they-can-be-baptised

This thread might just as well serve as general discussion one.


TNS Polska poll:

PiS: 34%
PO: 15%
Nowoczesna: 11%
Kukiz: 9%
________________
PSL: 3%
SLD: 3%
Korwin: 3%
Razem: 3%
TR: 0%

No one really cares about Poland to be honest.

Nowaczesna may have filled with Palikot's niche, but they'll never replace Palikot in my heart.

Is it possible for Nowoczesna to eclipse PO as the main anti-PiS party?

Possible? Hard to tell. In my opinion it is too late, they should do more when PO had the biggest troubles. But they still have chances because it seems that PO is slowly crumbling apart, and their problems will continue. But their biggest problem is that next elections are local ones and they can't outnumber PO and they probably will not be able to participate on level lower than voivodship level.

There was a time when media gone all "OMG PO's dead an Petru's new King" due to some polls showing Nowoczesna ahead and the fact their activity in Sejm was much more effective than PO, which was torn apart by succession race. BUT PO has a great structural advantage and Nowoczesna just recently lost it's donations via Court decision (Razem has some problems with this, but everybody cares about Petru).

Palikot was quite a troll. I wish he were a better politician, though (voted TR in 2011).

Presidential approvals per TNS:

Approve: 48% (-3)
Disapprove: 41% (+2)
Undecided: 11% (+1)

More specifically:

Very good: 9%
Good: 39%
Bad: 28%
Very bad: 13%


Freaking impressive, given the Presidency is basically vacant. Duda makes Komorowski look like a true titan of activity.

How is so?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptDOxykfP4c

Daily Korwin

https://www.facebook.com/pg/AlternatywaSocjalistyczna/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1023459294466817


Its not even minor event, rather micro but Poland also had its pro-HDP manifestations.

()

Fake, but quite a good summary of Polish political situation anyway.

On first look I was thinking this is Wałęsa standing.

I really hope the abortion ban doesn't pass. That would be very bad. I am pro-choice, but think abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy should be banned; with exceptions for rape, incest, and certain health circumstances.

https://www.facebook.com/socialistsanddemocrats/videos/1316471045096962/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNs_nn_qBIQ

Daily Korwin vol. 2

Poland, Kantar poll:

PiS-ECR: 41% ↑
PO-EPP: 28% ↑
K'15-*: 10% ↓
N-ALDE: 10%
SLD-S&D: 4% ↓
PSL-EPP: 4% ↑
Razem-*: 1% ↓
W-EFDD: 1% ↓

PiS government still relatively popular?

As you can see yes.

i fear a hungarization of the political landscape.

one major government party and a fractured opposition....

As long as there will be no mixed electoral system or even FPTP PiS will not be able to get constitutional majority.

BUT MY FACEBOOK TOLD ME RAZEM WILL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION! D:


Yes, though it's still curious they got, as the first party ever, a majority of seats with mere 37.58%, while parties that surprassed 40% (SLD in 2001, PO in 2007) couldn't. Had Zlew reached it's 8% thershold, it could've been diffrent.

After "memetics affair" Razem will not be able to stand together until the next elections.

But my facebook told me Zandberg will be Prime Minister Naczelnik Generalissimo Eternal Sunshine of the Republic!

what's that if i may ask?

Great discussion inside Razem party about role of contemporary left-wing identity, values and role of Internet memes , briefly speaking.

Tej siły już nie powstrzymacie!

Inna polityka jest możliwa.

Szyszko's war on trees is annoying, but at least I see some new trees being planted in Warsaw.

Tusk re-elected as President of the European Council with support of every member country government except Polish (PiS decided to troll the EU by filling this guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacek_Saryusz-Wolski)).

While I like PiS getting their wrist slapped, Tusk is still low energy.

tusk is low energy but i love how much the PiS hates him.

and he is much better in this position than his predecessor.

Aaaaaaaaaaand PiS had entered full "we don't accept this decision, therefor it's invalid" mood.

RAZ, although I a little bit despise him, summarized that boogaloo pretty nice:

– Polski algorytm: najpierw się puszymy, że nie oddamy ani guzika, potem nam zabierają całe gacie, na koniec się pocieszamy, że im pokazaliśmy.

Lol not even Kaczynski's bros Orban and Fico backed him up? Lol, cucked.

Why would they (of all people...) back Tusk??

Why would they not? Orban is in the EPP and Hungary have a lot of businesses with Germany, they are not stupid and understand how real foreign politics should look like so they support Tusk - it does not cost them much to support but not supporting Tusk probably would be more harmful. Fico also had no business in supporting Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, PiS failed so much in that charade that they even were not able to propose anything to get any support for their candidate. And Waszczykowski is by far the worst Foreign Minister since I can remember, and also probably since 1989.

Orban's FB profile is being invaded by bitter PiS hacks, complaining about "treason", LOL

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This is even better.

CBOS poll:

PiS: 37%
PO: 19%
Kukiz: 9%
Nowoczesna: 8%
PSL: 5%
-------------------------
SLD: 4%
Current Korwin's party: 2%
Razem: 2%

Wow 'modernmentum' didn't last very long lmao.

Definitely surprised kukiz still has a solid vote base. It seemed like a party that would be prone to immediate explosion.

Which pollsters can be trusted in Poland, and which ones can't?

Nowoczesna leaders are working hard to lose all support they got starting from this:
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/poland-opposition-leader-slammed-vacation-during-crisis
and ending on multiple gaffes and not really clever statements.


As for the Kukiz this is hard topic and I can say something about it but later.


As for the polling companies IBRIS and TNS used to be the best, I can't tell if they are still.

PiS snoflakes invading Orban's FB profile:

()

"You world-class lice. What kind of title do you even have? You are nothing, I hope Tusk licked a hole in your ass. You've been supported by the Poles, but not those from Tusk, you naive lice. You won't have our support again. We will forget about you."

()

"You Hungarian traitor."

()

"Did Merkel promised you a German citizenship too? You are just the same as sick, Islamic Union."

According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, Tusk was pretty much a goner until Kaczyński saved his ass by throwing a hissy fit.

Thanks, Jarosław ::)

fun stuff...polish web is buzzing about this and the homepage of the online edition of the FAZ is empty....

Korwin's suspended as MEP for 10 days (and won't get a month salary) for being a misogynist dumbass.

http://www.electograph.com/2017/03/poland-march-2017-ibris-poll-2.html

Strange poll.

It almost appears as Kaczyński is no longer in control, since he can't even deal with Macierewicz's antics. Years ago he'd just purge the old fossil, now he's just stating, in a rare public appearance, Macierewicz "excesses should be curbed".


On unrelated note I drove past two American military convoys today moving east in Białystok direction. I was lucky for American soldiers are known to cause traffic accidents.

@Kal...could you plz be a little bit more specific for people not fluent in polish? :D

It appears our great explorer Waszczykowski (who discovered the mysterious land of San Escobar) may soon be tossed overboard.

1. What if he don't want to remove Macierewicz now? I mean, he is very hawkish so popular among "core" PiS voters and as for now they have still some time to the elections. Kaczyński can kick him before elections just to show centre voters "look we are nice again", and after elections give him some post as they always do.

2. Lol

Very important things are now going on in Poland.



PSL have lost one MP and now its parliamentary club have only 15 MPs - just enough to have parliamentary club but they are close to losing right to form club which PSL was able to form since 1990.

I remember when UP (Labor Union) went down from 15 to 14 MPs after Małachowski's death, SLD (being the major coalition party at the time) "lend" them one of their MPs, so UP could retain the right to have a parliamentary club.

PSL sure went a long way from being the second largest party between 1993 to 1997 to current pitiful state, never recovering from the 1997 slaughter.

A little note: when an MP dies or resigns, she or he is replaced with the next person from the party list that fell short winning during the election. Grzegorz Napieralski, former SLD leader (and now PO Senator) is one of numerous examples. Of course with more than one parties running together or other subsequent reasons, the replacement member might not be associated with the club (that's how UPR once got their lone MP, because they ran with PO in 2001, winning no seats back then). This, of course, does not reflect a situation when a member switches parties/clubs.

As of Senators, there are special elections, but Senate is a joke anyway. Hell, since they introduced single districts I took my ballot home on both occasions.


Oh, other major s**t is going on right now, but I don't think I have enough energy for a large post. Kaatak, will you do the honors? :P

Nah, this is pretty boring at this point. PSL is more interesting.

Well, to be honest, yes. Maybe I'm too cynical, but it was pretty much a skilfull political trolling of everyone by The Jarosław™

I don't know if that skillful, he lost his temper and protests are starting to be more and more non-partisan what for PiS is bad. Still holidays are coming and everything will smooth down.

I have a lot of things to do with my master's thesis so I guess it is good moment to start some discussion about Polish politics? Maybe you all have some questions? Do not hesitate to ask.

What do you think about inevitable landslide victory for Razem in 2019?

I saw on FB it's coming, so...

Razem is probably moving toward total failure in local elections as I don't see that ideological purists will cooperate with other more liberal parties of the left on local level. And they don't understand that for them getting city councilors, sejmiks members is the only way to get any support bigger than 3%. Probably the only city when they alone have decent result is Wrocław.

Interestingly during elections for borough councils Razem did cooperate with Greens. But I don't see purists "compromising themselves" by working on something bigger with muh fake left.

Oh, since this thread went inactive for long, the Supreme Court controversy, which sparked actual big protests in major cities at least, had no effect on PiS standing in the polls.

Well, as for now they are also cooperating with IPla and Greens with collecting signatures on their abortion liberalization act so maybe somewhere it will succeed. But I still doubt that they will accept cooperation with people like Joński.

As for the PiS as I said


PiS is good in over-escalating the conflict and later smoothing down with making their opponents accepting the lighter version (while most often this is the version which they from the beginning they were willing to accept). Only thing opposition now can pray for is bigger conflict in PiS against Rydzyk people in govt. (Szyszko, Macierewicz) and further conflict between Ziobro and Duda (Duda used to be his subordinate but later left his while he was creating Solidarna Polska so there probably is some ambition-based conflict between them, search for their statements from 2014) but as for now this is still unlikely. 

CBOS poll: (http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,22277892,jeden-z-najlepszych-wynikow-pis-w-historii-opozycja-nie-ma.html#MT)

PiS: 42%
PO: 20%
Kukiz: 8%
.Nowoczesna: 6%
-----------------------
PSL: 4%
SLD: 4%
"Wolność": 2%
Razem: 2%


Pathetic

CBOS is not really good source, they had great error takng into consideration previous elections. In 2015 IBRiS was the best from currently operating polling stations.

What a great country! :)

Depressing, but lmao at the collapse of .modern.

It wasn't so long ago when we've heard constantly ".n will absorb PO in no time" or "Petru is the new leader of the opposition."

As of PO, I remember Schetyna being compared to Frank Underwood and now it makes sense. He's good at destroying internal rivals and sucks at everything else.

It was pretty obvious since the beginning that only one party can be major anti-PiS and .nowoczesna lost their chance to get into that position and kill PO because of stupidity of its leader.

There is also fresh IRBiS

PiS: 36.4%
PO: 19.6%
.Nowoczesna:    10.9%
Kukiz: 8.0%
PSL: 5.4%
-----------------------

SLD: 4.5%
"Wolność": 3.4%
Razem:    3.4%
Dunnos/others: 8.4


Compared to previous poll by them PiS gained and PO lost few pp. With such result and SLD outside the parliament PiS will got majority.

What does Kukiz stand for nowadays?

Depends. It was always strange mix of different political groups and it pretty much depend on faction in parliamentary club. But generally it has not changes much since the elections. As for now they as far as I noticed focus on few issues:

1) President Duda plans for constitutional referendum next year
2) Immigration, terrorism etc.
3) Some administrative issues like digitization etc.

I do not follow what they are doing now that much but they have pretty much stable support so they do not really need any radical changes and attention whoring. 

Recently IBRiS done poll about on whom people declaring different political views want to vote. And people with self-declared left-wing views are like this:

(in brackets changes compared with lat year)
PO: 22% (nc)
.N: 21% (-10%)
SLD: 20% (nc)
PiS: 11% (+4%)
Razem: 8% (-2%)
PSL: 7% (+2%)
Kukiz: 2% (-2%)


What are your opinion on that?

Kal, Razem got 5% in new IBRiS poll XD

Weird, I see no celebrations on my FB wall.

https://czyrazemma5procentpoparcia.pl/

Poland has right to seek war damages from Germany, PM says (https://www.ft.com/content/fde41eca-9489-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c)

Should I grab my popcorn?

No, it's really boring and not that original.

Yeah they bang this drum every now and again, usually as a way of distracting from domestic troubles. The usual nationalist blowhard trick.

Well, to be honest they hadn't started that drama when there was any problem (economy is in very good shape, budget in better shape than expected, govt. is planning raising the minimum wage and minimum hourly wage, they are preparing next anti-VAT fraud acts and solutions etc.) as there were political summer holidays when they were most strongly used that theme. Support for opposition parties is decreasing so they are not clearly doing that to repair their opinion polls results. Generally I think main goal of that is:

a) they want to have bargaining card for some other issues like NS2
b) for internal use, waking up anti-German sentiment to try at least somehow diminish negative possible future effect of EU procedures against Poland (such scheme: damn, that controlled by Germans EU want to hurt us, innocent Poland. Hey, remember when we also was innocent and hurt by Germans? In 1939).

Greens and Razem are running together for the city council in Wrocław, but that's it.

Lel, I wrote about that like half year ago on the other Atlas and there I forgot :( They also wanted as far as I know to have joint candidate for president. As far as I know they are also planning to have their committees in all voivodships for Sejmik elections. I guess they have also some chances on coalition in Warsaw city council elections but I doubt they will get enough votes to get some city councilors.

I think I remember Greens and Razem running together for borough councils sometime ago in Wrocław.

Yup, and they got some elected. Although I don't know how many of them were from Razem.

https://www.facebook.com/ZieloniWroclaw/photos/a.196860837022349.45192.141755689199531/1540371002671319/?type=3&theater

PiS record high in CBOS, 44%

Ruling coalition (yes, formally Poland is governed by a coalition, not a single party) today was enlarged by to-be-in-future party Partia Republikańska based on the two splinter MPs from Republikanie association which earlier was part of Kukiz'15. This is second major split in that organisation. Now PiS and allies have 236 out of 460 MPs, still too little to counter any potential dissent of the PiS minor partners but still this is better than 234.

what does the German Minority MP do in the Sejm?

Represents German minority? Recognized by law minorities had no electoral threshold so thanks to the good organisation they can elect their MP. Generally he votes similarly to the govt.

Not so long ago they had 2 MPs, but their voting share decreased significantly in the Opole Voivodeship (which is an electoral district as well). They have to reach 5% within the district, but don't have to reach 5% nationally, which would be a moot since they're not running anywhere else. Yes, to gain any seats, you must reach 5% nationally (8% for coalitions). To win seats in specific districts you need to get the magic number as well. I don't know whether 8% threshold applied to specific districts as well.

Hunger strike of resident doctors which is main topic in media since few days now is enlarged into protest of all medical professional representatives which are members of trade union of medical professions (nurses, pharmacists, physical therapists, doctors, paramedics etc.). Main postulates of resident doctors were about financing of health care and general situation of the health care system but also about their wages, which are not that big (although nurses and paramedics have much worse situation). Now we must wait for clarification of situation but probably postulates will remain the same but including proposals for wages for all medical professions going in line with legal act project made by the union (they gathered ca 250k signatures) which was put into the trash by PiS and quickly covered up with their own, much weaker and unsatisfactory for medics one.

Understanding Poland 101:

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Support for UBI among declared voters of different parties/committees from 2015.

So what was for probably everyone not really possible few months ago soon may become reality. PiS since few weeks are planning to do "reconstruction" of the government, on the beginning they planned only some minor changes (Infrastructure minister and Environment minister posts)  but now media are seriously telling that there are chances that Kaczyński himself will become PM, and there will be personal changes in Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministry what is a result in deal between president and Kaczyński.

PiS and its allies are also planning their new government strategy on next two years - hyperminister Morawiecki, both Minister of Finances and Developement (what is equivalent of Minister of Economy or something like that) and minister Gowin (Higher Education and Science, both are also deputy prime ministers) are strongly lobbying for focusing on economy in next two years what probably will force PiS to switch into more liberal, or at least entrepreneurship-friendly narration. But PiS is probably gearing up for next elections (and local elections are scheduled for 2018) so such change is unlikely and probably will require Morawiecki as PM, and he as a outsider still has too weak position in the party. 

Although this is not confirmed and these are still pretty much only gossips we should observe what will happen in next few weeks. I personally doubt that such major changes will happen, still I see many very solid argument for such change.


Also, Nowoczesna will have this week its congress and they will choose their new or old leader. Ryszard Petru have serious competition from Katarzyna Lubnauer, parliamentary club leader and one of the most well known politician of Nowoczesna.

That would be pretty big.

Indeed, although there is also possibility that they are doing media buzz just to cover some more controversial topics like courts reform which today was discussed in parliament. 

Lubnauer won in a squeaker, humiliating Petru who openly expected to win by a landslide. He will not be missed.

A historii tego swetra i tak byś nie zrozumiał.

Ein Kredyt, Ein Debet, Ein Ryszard.

Does this represent an ideological shift for Modern or what?

I like Poland. I wonder if the international media attacking them for their awesome independence day rally is making them rally around PiS even more.

Ideologically they're basically the same, apart from maybe abortion where Lubnauer is marginally more liberal (she wants a slight liberalisation of existing laws, Petru didn't want to discuss the issue at all). The main difference is that Petru is an extremely gaffe-prone, tone-deaf and basically rather incompetent politician and his approval rating has fallen off a cliff. Lubnauer is considerably more popular with liberal voters and is an absolute darling of the liberal media, so her becoming leader may make it easier for them to eat away at PO again.

Polish MPs have approved a bill that will end Sunday shopping by 2020. (http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2017/11/25/poland-to-phase-out-sunday-shopping-by-2020/)

The trade unions wanted it, but PiS supported it from a pro-family stance.

Not all trade unions, only pro-govt Solidarność. OPZZ supported 250% increase in wages for work during Sundays not only for trade but also other services like security or gastronomy.

PiS has seen a rise in the polls despite many controversial reforms. A large part of their success is due to the fact that they've stood up to the EU's demands on immigration. Victor Orban is popular in Hungary for the same reason. It seems logical that they would double down when the world media keeps attacking an annual celebration of Polish independence, which has always been a big nationalist event.

1. Central Europe
2. Nothing has changed in Polish society, maybe a little bit get more polarized.
3. This wasn't annual celebration of Polish independence but annual political event celebrating Polish independence organized by some nationalist groups, there were many different events celebrating Polish independence.
4.  PiS last elections got 37.58% of votes, now they get in polls something between 37 and 43 so the support realy didn't increased that much. People are happy with social policies like increase of minimal hour wage for civil law contracts, child benefits or plans for eradicating VAT evasion. Immigrants are issue for only some part of PiS electorate. Their support is much more complex phenomenon than simply effect of opposing immigrant quotas.

OK, I've just cleared up this thread from flames/personal attacks.

Kaatak's response was correct. I should add the fact PiS enjoys an absolute majority with less than 40% is, so far, a bit of a fluke. SLD-UP got over 40% in 2001, PO in 2011, and yet both failed to gain a majority. One can speculate that if, among other factors, ZL did reach 8% threshold for coalitions, PiS' absolute majority would be in doubt due to the way seats are distributed. On the other hand, PiS' majority could've been bigger if PSL was under.

Remember if your party/committee gets less than 5% (8% for coalitions) you have no representation whatsoever. Its not that terrible as with FPTP, but still. It can be a matter of a fraction of percent.


As of trade ban on Sundays, I'm sceptical for one main reason. We don't have strong unions, and those remaining are more or less in bed with political parties (Solidarity with PiS, OPPZ with SLD). And without adequate workers' rights protection the business will be scaling down/reducing on expense of the workers themselves.

There also appear to be some absolutely massive loopholes in it, like the bakery thing (bakeries can remain open on Sundays, but a lot of supermarkets have bakeries on site these days...). I'm not against the trade ban on principle but it's not a great law.

Ban on Sunday trade, restrictions on alcohol consumption, planned restrictions on animals. That's in opposite to Trump, who wants to give people more freedom, PiS takes it away.

Court reforms are clearly politically motivated and would be unthinkable in the US. They keep or even increase their support because the opposition is terrible, they often make contradictory statements regarding important issues or embarrass themselves like ex-Modern Party leader - Ryszard Petru.

But the prices are on the rise and new taxes/restrictions are either start to come up (as mentioned in the beginning of the post) or will have to be put. In the 1970s there was a big improvement in the living standards thanks to the foreign loans but as debt increased, the economic crisis began and it eventually escalated to the martial law.

The light in the tunnel for opposition is the fact that PiS would struggle to find a stable coalition if unable to gain absolute majority (see 2005-2007 years) and if six parties did indeed reach the next parliament, PiS would have to top 40%, which is easier said that done in the election year. Popular reforms are already done and it's hard to think of other major things that can gather further support while a lot of problems loom ahead.

1. Former Soviet Bloc countries, especially the Visegrad 4
2. You must admit that the left has largely collapsed in Poland since the turn of the century. The center left came in first place in 2001 with over 40%. It's successor parties didn't even earn representation in 2015.
3. I never said it was the only one, but it is the most politically influential.
4. PiS lead PO roughly 32-27 in polling averages in May. Now, their lead is 40-20. Immigration is obviously not the only factor, but it seems to be helping them and it certainly helped Orban in Hungary, where Jobbik was once a real threat to his Fidesz party's majority.

Kukiz'15 have offered to help PiS elect the new members of the National Judiciary Council in exchange for passing a bill implementing the institution of justices of the peace, who would be elected for 5-year terms. *facepalm* PiS needs Kukiz's help as under Duda's proposed law on the Council new members must be elected by a 3/5 majority (PiS+Kukiz lack one, but most of the independents are likely to vote with them anyway), and the other opposition parties are not going to cooperate.

Ugh, those speculations are a little bit tiring. Now media speculate or rather "inform" according to their sources that after meeting between Kaczyński, core of the party and with local party leaders agreed that deputy prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki will be new prime minister. Also Foreign Affairs minister will be out according to the info.

One hour or two and we should know who will be prime minister, PiS now have party meeting in their hq.

Official: Szydło "resigned", Morawiecki will be PM. Szydło will remain in govt as deputy prime minister. Rest of changes in January.

Initially she was rumored to be "promoted" - Sejm Marshal. Of course from any standpoint other than the order of precedence it's a demotion too.

Why is Kaczynski doing this? What did Szydlo do wrong?

Maybe he prefers a "fresh face" (lol) to inaugurate second half of parliamentary term. Dunno.

It's all pretty irrelevant anyway. Kaczyński could've picked a brick to replace Szydło for all practical purposes.

Welp, to be honest nothing wrong. Govt is popular, PM is popular, PiS is dominating in polls. But there are few issues which accumulated in the second part of the year and which might be the reasons for such change.

1) First of all Szydło had problems with powerful ministers, she herself had pretty weak position in the government. She couldn't really discipline even those weaker ministers and only what somehow motivated ministers to do something with issues with which Kaczyński was not satisfied (as for the Infrastructure Minister with one of the flag programs - Mieszkanie+, state-builded flats for rent which should have smaller cost than flats on developer market or as for the Foreign Ministry with changes in foreign service act and purges in embassies) was threat of demission during reconstruction of cabinet.

2) There are gossips that Szydło was overwhelmed and tired by cabinet works.

3) There is also issue of new focus in the second part of current parliamentary term. Some ministers and also what was now confirmed by PiS speaker they want to focus on economy, investments, development, high tech industries etc. rather than core PiS issues like "fighting with cliques", "fighting with corruption" or some social issues (not like that will disappear, just other issues will be priority).

4) There are also voices that Morawiecki is simply better partner for international contacts than Szydło as he is bankster with good language skills and lets say for him international environment is not something problematic. Kaczyński just got impression that Morawiecki will be better PM while new EU budget will be discussed and Poland got into a lot of troubles with the EU.


That might got interesting because as for now Morawiecki is almost outsider for PiS, some important members who are longer inside the party might be a little bit worried with such tremendous political career.

Piotr Duda, the leader of Solidarity, said in an interview that he 'doesn't understand' Morawiecki's appointment and fears that it marks a liberal turn in economic policy. He also criticised what he described as Morawiecki's unwillingess to cooperate with the unions (specifically citing him pushing through a pension contribution reform both the unions and employers' associations opposed as an example) as Deputy PM and said that strikes are possible if he continues to act the same way now that he's Prime Minister. Will be interesting to see if other important PiS constituencies react the same way.

At the same time PiS also passed President Duda's proposed laws on the Supreme Court and the National Judiciary Council, and pushed a reform of the electoral law which would instate term limits for mayors, shorten the terms of the members of the National Electoral Commission through the relevant parliamentary committee.

So, Szydło is going to be Deputy PM "for social affairs", but without actual portfolio.

OK, there's a precedent of Jaruga-Nowacka in Belka Cabinet, before she was given a ministry. But she was leader of a junior coalition party. Also Gosiewski was Deputy PM without a portfolio.

So, the entire "reconstruction" amounted to PM an Deputy PM switching places and nothing else.

There are opinions, by the way, suggesting Morawiecki will basically serve as a nice :) modern :) non-ideological :) expert :) facade for Europe.

It's not about domestic politics. Szydło was popular and certainly somebody PiS voters could personally relate to. Morawiecki is definitively not the same type. Kaczyński feel secure to disregard this, not to mention Morawiecki, an outsider to the party, will be very dependable.

Expose (inaugurating speech before vote of confidence) of new PM in the nutshell: Poland is cool, govt was cool, thanks Beata, industrial power of Poland is great, economy now is great, in the future no night-watchman state neither bureaucratic leviathan,  tax frauds,  polluted air,  Russian gas, quote from Piketty, sharing economy, we must work all together guys :), digitization,  brain drainage,  ASF, build new flats, suport the mothers, jail the rapists, support the elderly and disabled people (infrastructural and systemic changes), Europe is cool,  two-speed Europe, we want discuss about changes in migrant policies, wadda wadda Polish democracy and tolerance great tradition of Europe, Anglo-saxon capitalism do not cope well with inequalities, France and Italy capitalism do not cope well with competition, we can cope with all of that, Poland was among first countries wanted to discuss about tax evasions on EU level, thank you guys from forest services for saving Białowieża forest :), Poland must build its soft power tools, Polish security is cool now, thx NATO, PESCO is also cool, but NATO and USA is cooler, new technologies needed, V4 is cool, Eastern Partnership is cool, again soft power and defending Poland reputation, support our diaspora - but guys pls come back you can be happy there, we need ambitious goals like being member of G20 or main pillar of EU/NATO, thanks daddy (Morawiecki's dad is MP, were present during expose), thanks mommy,  you communist Security Service, Poland is our common good, guys Christmas are coming, we need to stop fighting and start disagreeing, 100 years ago our grandfathers could do so we also can lol, Poland stronk, common goals etc. thank you very much <applause>

Moraviecku, vodi pole svoje, vodi pole svoje.

I really hope Waszczo will be kicked out come January. Our diplomacy won't get any better, but we will look a little less retarded.

what is the point of Kukiz nowadays? I assumed he would sort of implode Palikot style.

Pretty much his club is starting to crumble, in month he lost next two or three MPs. And disagreements are bigger and bigger, especially with the nationalist wing. Also there is some humble but visible tendency for con-liberal side to join forces with Korwin so they will probably start alone.

Frankly I'm susprised it took them so long to start to crumble.

EuCom vs Poland 2: The Electric Boogaloo

https://www.politico.eu/article/4-takeaways-from-the-eu-summit/?utm_content=buffer8c411&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

"Morawiecki told reporters Thursday that he believed the European Commission would recommend taking sanctions against Poland for pushing through judicial changes that Brussels says will undermine EU standards on the rule of law. The Polish prime minister said he understood that the decision “has already been made that next Wednesday the European Commission plans to start (the procedure), then it will most likely be triggered.” "

https://amp.theguardian.com/cities/2017/dec/18/stole-city-soul-warsaw-reprivatisation-chaos?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true


Interesting article about real estate reprivatisation issue in Warsaw.

https://www.politico.eu/article/frans-timmermans-brussels-puts-warsaw-on-path-to-sanctions-over-rule-of-law/

"The European Commission decided Wednesday to put Poland on a path that could ultimately lead to the suspension of its EU voting rights over concerns about the rule of law.

The Commission’s move was the first time it had ever triggered the so-called Article 7 process, designed to ensure member countries stick to the bloc’s core values."

So, comedy begins.

polan stronk kurwa

Permaban pls :)

Wpierdol chcesz? :)

Yikes, is the EU actively trying to push Poland out? Because that seems one way for Poland to leave.

As for now Poland is one among those euro-enthusiastic countries, unlike for example Czech republic support for the EU is strong in Poland. At least for now, if government would like to they should be able to create such narrations that chances for leaving the EU will be greater. But I hope that nothing like this will happen.

Timmermans has always been an insufferable little dictator with an inflated ego. I don't know if I support these judicial reforms, but it doesn't matter: these are Poland's internal affairs and none of Brussels' business. Stay stronk, Poland.

PiS is basically destroying independence of the judiciary and electoral system. I've always believed the EU should be able to do something to ensure member states' won't go down the authoritarian path. When you join the club, you subscribe to some rules.

An independent judiciary is important, and so is governing parties not adapting the electoral system to benefit themselves. Perhaps I would have been more mild if the EU were not currently in the process of forcing Poland, among other member states, to take in migrants, something these countries most definitely did not sign up for when they entered the EU. I realize these are separate issues, but I have difficulty sympathizing with the European Commission because of it.

Millward Brown SA:

PiS: 41%
PO: 21,5%
Nowoczesna: 8,5%
SLD: 8,5%
Kukiz: 6,5%
------------------------
PSL: 4,3%
Razem: 4,3%
Wolność: 3,2%
Ruch Narodowy: 1,1%

Undecided: 5%
Not telling you: 3%


Fake news and junk poll I say. Facebook told me Razem will win next time around. Why would Zuckerberg like to me lie this?

Man, where do you find these people who think Razem will win? I've never seen any of them, and I literally have a member of the national executive as one of my Facebook friends...

Btw will SLD run as a coalition (meaning they need to cross the higher threshold) or as a unified party next time around?

Also has Miller stepped down yet?

1. No idea. They could run with other parties, but not as a coalition, but an "voters' electoral committee", in which case all they would need is 5%. However, by not running as a party/coalition they won't be eligible for budget funds.

2. Back in 2016. This is the new SLD overlord, lacking en wiki page:

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They have enough trouble getting over 5% in most polls as it is, I doubt they'll be that stupid.

If only ZL ran as a voters' committee instead of a coalition...

But then they wouldn't get that sweet sweet money, Kalwejt.

I wonder what the money Twój Ruch are getting is going towards.

The Senate has passed PiS' changes to the election code which gives the Minister of the Interior much more influence over the appointment of election officials, curtails postal voting and dramatically changes the definition of a spoiled ballot, Morawiecki has announced a 500mln zl investment programme into biotechnology to develop the Polish pharmaceutical industry (at least it's actual state investment this time and not just giving out massive corporate tax cuts and throwing money at foreign companies who were going to invest in Poland anyway), the Defence Ministry is buying three new ships (which we all know is going to end up taking forever and probably being an excuse for massive corruption), and Ziobro has asked the Constitutional Tribunal to rule on the constitutionality of an article of the penal code which bans discrimination by service providers (basically trying to sneak those stupid American 'religious objections' laws in through the back door).

Meanwhile, Ein Kredyt Ein Debet Ein Ryszard has given an interview to Rzeczpospolita in which he basically confirms that he's going to continue throwing a hissy fit over being removed as .N leader, criticises every decision Lubnauer has made since becoming leader, and announces that he has stopped soliciting donations to the party from his friends and will not resume until he is assured of an unspecified degree of influence over the direction of the party. Also, the chairman of Kielce .N shared a graphic on Facebook basically calling 500+ recipients alcoholics.

I'm beginning to think the weakness of the opposition might not just be down to the Polish people being dumb ungrateful proles who want free money, guys.

Your post prompted me to google TR and I found, with surprise, they still exists.

I've seen polls this year where they still got 1%!

There was a government reshuffle today and this is how it went: (WARNING: LOTS OF OPINIONS AHEAD)

- Antoni Macierewicz (Defence Minister) out and replaced with Mariusz Błaszczak (previously Interior). Macierewicz is a far-right lunatic who's probably the worst defence minister we've ever had so his replacement by a slightly less far-right stable person is a welcome development.
- Deputy Speaker of the Sejm and lead Kaczyński sycophant Joachim Brudziński moves to Interior. Sigh.
- Witold Waszczykowski (Foreign Affairs) out and replaced by Jacek Czaputowicz. Waszczykowski is a moron and Czaputowicz is an academic with a background in international relations, so this is also a welcome development.
- Jan Szyszko (Environment) out and replaced by Henryk Kowalczyk, previously minister without portfolio (interdepartmental fixer, basically). Szyszko is a hilariously corrupt moron and Kowalczyk is literally just a man so I'll take it.
- Konstanty Radziwiłł (Health) out and replaced by Łukasz Szumowski, cardiologist and former Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education. Radziwiłł was a massively incompetent so-con and I don't have a clue about Szumowski.
- Finance and Development Ministries staffed with Teresa Czerwińska and Jerzy Kwieciński respectively. Boring technocratic Morawiecki loyalists about whom there isn't much to write.
- Ministry of Digitalisation gone as expected.
- Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing transformed into just the Ministry of Infrastructure despite rumours that the minister, Andrzej Adamczyk, might be sacked for the delays on PiS' flagship house-building programme.
- New Ministry of Business and Technology with Jadwiga Emilewicz, previous deputy minister of development and Gowin loyalist as the minister.

tl;dr PiS have ditched all their dead weights and are going after the liberal centre(-right) and PO are rubbish enough that they might actually pull it off. We're ed.

RIP PSL parliamentary club.

What happened? Too many defections?

Actually, it just took one MP defecting (to the government; technically he joined Gowin's party, but it's the same club as PiS) for PSL to fell short of 15 MPs, required to have a parliamentary club. They are now "koło" (caucus).

I'm too lazy to check but is it the first time PSL, or preceding parties, are left without a proper club?

Crisis averted, PSL will now have joint parliamentary club with UED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_European_Democrats

In the long run it might be bad idea.

What is the difference between a club and a caucus?

Club is bigger (15 MPs) and thus can do more. Club have right to issue their own legislative projects. 15 MPs is also necessary to for example sign in their own candidate for the Sejm speaker (marshal) and other posts. There are also other major and minor issues but also prestige etc.

Michal 'Pinochet' Kaminski brings misfortune to every party he hooks up with. RIP PSL, you won't be missed.

WARNING! BREAKING NEWS!!!


Janusz Korwin-Mikke is resigning from being MEP.

Oh, too bad :(
For some reason he was always bullying a Spanish MEP. I guess those times have ended. Plus we'll miss other of his best interventions in the EU parliament.

I made a separate thread on the local elections, because why not: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=283164.msg6027298#msg6027298

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Progressive politician tests appetite for less religious Poland (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-politics-biedron/progressive-politician-tests-appetite-for-less-religious-poland-idUSKCN1QH1SR)
Well that sounds nice, his party sounds much better than PO and more electable than Razem. Can anyone give me the Polish scoop on the ground for this development?

At this point the best (or rather only real) chance to prevent an outright PiS victory again is Wiosna performing well, and KO not f**king up too much, the latter I'm not being optimistic about. PO had been attacking recently announced pension increases for teachers, nurses and soldiers, which is not going to work. PiS does have problems with recent scandals, but I fear come autumn they will rebound, if Wiosna collapses and KO keep shooting themselves in the foot. PiS is very good at playing economic issues and the other side just doesn't get the memo. The best course of action for Biedroń would be to somehow combine both socially liberal and economic messages.

As of Razem, they're basically dead, although they try to stay afloat by entering into a coalition with PPS and UP, which is pretty much irrelevant.

On a lol-related news, the Greens joined KO (causing many prominent members to leave), probably destined to end up as a fig leaf with no seats in the EP (hey, at least IP managed to secure a job for one of its leaders at Łódź aquapark. I'm not making this up.


Bottom line: too early to see, but given how things are going about here, I'm not optimistic.

Who is most likely to win the Euros. PiS or KE?

Some polls are close, but personally I thinkd PiS will win the most votes, but it won't be by a big margin.

One of the last polls (https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1402426,wyniki-wyborow-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-2019.html):

United Right (PiS and small satelite parties): 37,9%
KE (PO, .N, PSL, SLD and some other minor entities): 34,7%
Wiosna: 7,6%
Kukiz 15: 5.5%
Konfederacja (a bunch of far right nutjobs): 5.5%

-----5% Threshold-----

Left Together (Razem, Labor Union and PPS): 2,2%

I must say I really have no idea how to vote. Wiosna is essentially turning out the same way as Palikot. Razem was never a serious consideration for me for a number of reasons (which aren't about the policy, but their lack of ability to actually matter).

Well, I am voting Razem, but also mainly because I have Ikonowicz as list leader and although he is dramatically weak as a politician he is great person and activist so still worth a vote.

Less than one day passed and the KE is already imploding, with PSL dropping hints of running independently in the autumn (not sure if it would help him, given their support hemorrhaging rapidly), and Miller (we'll never get rid of his, will we?) alluding to this being an one-time project. With Nowoczesna essentially on life support (absorption into PO is probably inevitable), we're back to square one.

PO just f**king deserve to lose in the fall for their stupidity. They still can't comprehend why they lost in 2015 and why they're losing now.

Why did they lose?

KE hardly offered anything other than their constant "we're anti-PiS" theme. PiS, on the other hand, was talking a lot about their standard-bearing social programs like 500+, in a very manipulative way and waaay overstating their actual accomplishments, but still. Not to mention the KE campaign was full of such undertones as "stupid uneducated rural voters who are being bribed by PiS". Good job, geniuses.

Arguably, it would've been hard for KE to present a coherent platform, given that all that united the parties involved was "we're not PiS".

What's the big problem with Wiosna?  And what do you mean by "turning out the same way as Palikot?"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Your_Movement

This initiative started off very promisingly (I voted for them in 2011), but stalled in part because of inneffective leadership, and in part due to it never becoming a coherent force agenda-speaking, aside of some individual points. I see the same signs when Wiosna is concerned.

And, after watching Biedroń on the election night, acting like an overexcited teen, I have even bigger doubts about his "abilities".

On an extremely serious note, I feel it would be most reasonable for Korwin to resume his singing career.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Efr6Q0QIYI

Has Biedroń said anything about the Polish government's refusal to take in Muslim refugees? I'm interested in his opinion on this matter.

PSL decided that they will participate in parliamentary elections in their own coalition, without PO.

PSL is in rather unenviable position, with their support in the country hemmoraging quickly. Sure, they always had a machine that allowed them to get above 5% despite some close calls in the past, but seriously, the machine is getting rusty.

I think we can essentially rule out SLD running with PO as well.

https://twitter.com/danieltilles1/status/1222270872406327296

"Putin supports the Polish opposition" - is it Polish CNN?