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Title: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 08:39:54 AM Posted on Twitter by Sam Stein
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 40 OH: Clinton 46, Trump 42 WI: Clinton 43, Trump 39 All polls taken pre-hot mic tape https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/785110452900597771 Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 09, 2016, 08:40:41 AM would be a near-wonder if OH and WI votes at around the same margin.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: PresidentSamTilden on October 09, 2016, 08:45:28 AM I hope Trump has started working on his resume...
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: OneJ on October 09, 2016, 08:45:42 AM I'm wary on WI, but I'll take it!
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: BlueSwan on October 09, 2016, 08:45:45 AM Before Trump started grabbing pussies left and right. I'll certainly take the OH+4 and PA+8 results, thank you! Wisconsin could be better.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 08:47:20 AM Preliminary data suggests that the hot mic tape will damage Trump around the margins, but that he will still keep a committed base of 38-40% support. That being said, 38-40% of the vote puts him on the wrong end of a landslide. That's Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale territory if it translates nationally
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/ Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 09, 2016, 08:58:44 AM maybe a landslide in the PV.....electoral-college wise the margins are too concentrated in the blue/red states.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: BlueSwan on October 09, 2016, 09:01:10 AM Preliminary data suggests that the hot mic tape will damage Trump around the margins, but that he will still keep a committed base of 38-40% support. That being said, 38-40% of the vote puts him on the wrong end of a landslide. That's Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale territory if it translates nationally http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gender-gap-in-views-on-trumps-2005-tape/ Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 09:06:57 AM Senate numbers:
OH: Portman 49, Strickland 38 PA: McGinty 42, Toomey 42 WI: Feingold 45, Johnson 42 Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 09, 2016, 09:10:53 AM the feingold numbers are creepy.
and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi? Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 09:18:59 AM the feingold numbers are creepy. and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi? The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: / on October 09, 2016, 09:30:28 AM OH and PA polls are great; WI is a bit disappointing. Sometimes I wonder if Trump's disproportionately large investment in the state will actually pay off.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: OneJ on October 09, 2016, 09:47:18 AM the feingold numbers are creepy. and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi? The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed IMO, I think PA Senate numbers don't look plausible either. The other PA poll showed a race that seemed more consistent. Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: Person Man on October 09, 2016, 10:13:44 AM If Pennsylvania doesn't decide the election and Hillary wins, McGinty should somehow make it.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: Xing on October 09, 2016, 11:06:54 AM WI looks a bit off (for both races), but the others look about right.
Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: OneJ on October 09, 2016, 11:22:51 AM the feingold numbers are creepy. and makes me wonder the whole poll....hillary outrunning feingold in wi? The Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers look plausible but the Wisconsin numbers are definitely GOP skewed IMO, I think PA Senate numbers don't look plausible either. The other PA poll showed a race that seemed more consistent. Quinnipiac showed Toomey up 8 and Monmouth had McGinty and Toomey tied as well, so no. Toomey up by 8 is an outlier. Why did you mention that result? Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 09, 2016, 01:41:08 PM These polls look good.
But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 01:44:35 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: Ebsy on October 09, 2016, 01:45:48 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: Gass3268 on October 09, 2016, 01:47:11 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Their numbers look a lot like 2012. Wouldn't surprise me if things don't look too different from 4 years ago. Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: heatcharger on October 09, 2016, 01:50:25 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Yes, on Wednesday. I would assume it will be completely post-debate, but I'm not sure. Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: Gass3268 on October 09, 2016, 01:53:12 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Yes, on Wednesday. I would assume it will be completely post-debate, but I'm not sure. They usually poll over the weekend, I think it might be half and half. Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +4 (OH), Clinton +4 (WI), Clinton +8 (PA) Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2016, 07:30:40 PM These polls look good. But I still cant seem to completely feel comfortable with Wisconsin. Isn't Marquette coming out with a poll in a few days? Yes, on Wednesday. I would assume it will be completely post-debate, but I'm not sure. More significantly it will be after the disclosure of the crotch-grabbing. |