Talk Elections

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/09/clinton-leads-six-points-trump-support-falls/

"The new Economist/YouGov Poll was conducted mostly after the release of a 2005 video recording of Trump making vulgar statements about women"

Clinton - 44
Trump - 38
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

10/7-10/8

YouGov had it Clinton 43, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 3 last week.

Uh oh.

Trump is f**ked.

Wonder how much wider that gap can get once the PussyGate effect and a disastrous 2nd debate performance kick in.

The turmoil of the last few days in the race for the Presidency have given Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton her widest lead over Republican Donald Trump in two months.

Clinton 44 (43)
Trump 38 (40)
Johnson 5 (5)
Stein 1 (3)

The never consider number is spiking.

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And the collapse has only just begun.

So, it could be more like Clinton +7 or +8. Hopefully Hillary doesn't choke tonight so we can wrap this thing up!

This poll has had very little variability over the election. This is a big deal.

The 3 point increase for Hillary is the largest for this poll since she got a 3 point increase after the DNC.

What a beautiful poll! You're not going to BELIEVE the numbers coming out next week, folks. It's going to be amazing, simply amazing. Astonishing in the best way. Thank you, YouGov!

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The fact that Stein is tanking is also interesting...

Dems
Clinton 87%
Trump 6%
Johnson 1%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 6%
Clinton 3%
Stein 0%

Indies
Clinton 36%
Trump 35%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

men: Trump +2
women: Clinton +15
under age 30: Clinton +43
30-44: Clinton +7
45-64: Trump +6
over age 65: Clinton +2
whites: Trump +12
blacks: Clinton +78
Hispanics: Clinton +33
liberals: Clinton +75
moderates: Clinton +25
conservatives: Trump +57
under $50k income: Clinton +6
$50-100k income: Trump +2
over $100k income: Clinton +19

Yes, the crosstabs actually have those making over $100k as Clinton’s best income group.

fav/unfav %:
Clinton 44/53% for -9%
Trump 34/63% for -29%

Clinton is winning senior citizens, my guess is it is driven by those from the Greatest/Silent Generation that loved FDR and also remember Fascism in Europe and don't want it coming to America.

In their most recent poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/82ukqyqyn7/econTabReport.pdf

Clinton was also doing better with those making over $100k than with those making between $50 and $100k.  However the last poll had her +2 among among those over $100k, and now it's moved to +19, making it her most improved demo over last week's poll.

The other categories where she improved a lot are voters under 30 and self-described moderates (13 point swing for both groups).

The silly thing is that as one climbs in the polls, their downballot suffers.

I don't believe that the margin among hispanics will only be 33 points, but that's just me.

Yeah, sizable shift for this poll. The never consider number is devastating.

Pretty underwhelming - absolutely no shift in the two-way and Trump has been at 53% on the 'never consider' question before, as the charts show.

Still more tapes to come though apparently.

This is before the tapes.  Yah know that right.

Half of it was. Half of it wasn't. It could be 7-9 by now.

Not bad.
The juicy polls will come out later this week or early part of the following week.
Expect a national lead by Clinton in the +7 to +9 range.

The fat lady's doing an arpeggio now, folks. She's almost ready to hit that final high note!

-87% have a Very/Somewhat Favorable view of Hillary, but 88% have an unfavorable view of Trump.
-72% think Hillary is honest and trustworthy.
-75% think of Trump as "crazy".
-68% are voting mostly FOR Hillary.

-The Black vote is not fleeing from Hillary.

Also the Under 30 crowd has a 56% favorable view of Hillary.

I'd like to take this moment to say a huge thank you to black Americans for helping to keep the narcissistic nationalist out of White House.

Great poll!

A 3-point improvement over the last one!