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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 10:06:48 pm



Title: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 10:06:48 pm


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http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/texas-news/new-poll-trump-lead-shrinks-in-texas-within-margin-of-error/335896258


SurveyUSA conducted the poll between Monday and Wednesday of this week – after both the 2005 video in which Trump used lewd comments describing women and the second presidential debate in St. Louis on Sunday night.

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Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: matthew27 on October 13, 2016, 10:09:30 pm
Go Hillary!


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: yeah_93 on October 13, 2016, 10:09:53 pm
Yikes.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on October 13, 2016, 10:09:57 pm
Johnson on 3%, ayy lmao.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Fargobison on October 13, 2016, 10:10:04 pm
Trump did come through on one promise, the map is certainly expanding because of him.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Thomas D on October 13, 2016, 10:10:25 pm
Toss-up Texas.   :)


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 10:11:08 pm
if true this explains the closer call on the EC and the wide margin on the PV.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Ronnie on October 13, 2016, 10:12:17 pm
Toss-up Texas.   :)

Lol, not quite.  Trump will probably win the state in the end, but the county map will look apocalyptic for the GOP.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ReapSow on October 13, 2016, 10:14:36 pm
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Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Maxwell on October 13, 2016, 10:14:58 pm
the sound of the titanic sinking turned into numbers


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: whitesox130 on October 13, 2016, 10:17:19 pm
Ok, here's what I don't understand: Out of all of Trump's problems (and there are tons), why is it that the biggest criticism of him from the left seems to be the fact that he won't release his tax returns? Not his racist comments or bragging about sexual assault, but tax returns. Makes zero sense.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Jimmie on October 13, 2016, 10:17:38 pm
With Hillary having landslide margins in mega states (California + New York + Illinois), overperforming in red states such as Georgia, and nearly being tied in Texas... the popular is unwinnable for Trump.

His only path to victory is to win the electoral college. Very unlikely that any Obama 2012 will flip to him this year though.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 13, 2016, 10:17:58 pm
If this is true, AZ is definitely winnable.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Arch on October 13, 2016, 10:18:26 pm
Yikes.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 10:20:43 pm
Ok, here's what I don't understand: Out of all of Trump's problems (and there are tons), why is it that the biggest criticism of him from the left seems to be the fact that he won't release his tax returns? Not his racist comments or bragging about sexual assault, but tax returns. Makes zero sense.

besides the robin-hood-syndrome (as a liberal i am victim of it too) and the general feeling even a good rich guy would demoralize his blue-collar-support.......trump is the effing opposite of a good rich guy, he is a trickster's trickster and since we at the beginning assumed he just would wait for a good timing...there must be more bombshells in it than you could imagine.

atm i guess, releasing the unretracted tax returns would fill the newscycle till the election and then some.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Maxwell on October 13, 2016, 10:21:02 pm
Ok, here's what I don't understand: Out of all of Trump's problems (and there are tons), why is it that the biggest criticism of him from the left seems to be the fact that he won't release his tax returns? Not his racist comments or bragging about sexual assault, but tax returns. Makes zero sense.

oh the left hates his racist comments and bragging about sexual assault more, but in my opinion the tax returns thing is a better target for mid-to-low information middle classish voters who are willing to give Trump slack on racist comments ("he's talking about illegals!") and the tapes ("I've heard people talk like that").


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 10:22:16 pm
With Hillary having landslide margins in mega states (California + New York + Illinois), overperforming in red states such as Georgia, and nearly being tied in Texas... the popular is unwinnable for Trump.

His only path to victory is to win the electoral college. Very unlikely that any Obama 2012 will flip to him this year though.

ohio and iowa are absolutely possible in my humble opinion.....the sun belt/east coast are going to counter it anyway.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 13, 2016, 10:23:19 pm
Yeah, 43% is about what Hillary will get in the state.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 13, 2016, 10:23:50 pm
BTW - Wulfric, your sig is even more insufferable.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Noted Irishman on October 13, 2016, 10:29:35 pm
Toss-up Texas.   :)

Lol, not quite.  Trump will probably win the state in the end, but the county map will look apocalyptic for the GOP.

Actually, in terms of simple D-R counties, the TX county map would change remarkably little compared to 2008/2012 (assuming a very loose uniform swing). It'd mainly be a case of county margins either expanding or contracting.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 13, 2016, 10:34:42 pm
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 13, 2016, 10:38:34 pm
If this is true, AZ is definitely winnable.

Yes ..... Yes !


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2016, 10:41:56 pm
Yeah, 43% is about what Hillary will get in the state.

That's right, think positive.
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Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Ronnie on October 13, 2016, 10:43:04 pm
Toss-up Texas.   :)

Lol, not quite.  Trump will probably win the state in the end, but the county map will look apocalyptic for the GOP.

Actually, in terms of simple D-R counties, the TX county map would change remarkably little compared to 2008/2012 (assuming a very loose uniform swing). It'd mainly be a case of county margins either expanding or contracting.

Yeah, that's what I meant.  It's going to be really uncomfortable for the GOP to see some of their reliably and overwhelmingly red suburban counties, like Tarrant, fall within single digits of going to the Democrats.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Jimmie on October 13, 2016, 10:43:34 pm
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

That would be a nice moral victory for Clinton, for sure. To win Texas.

But I think Georgia and Arizona are more winnable. Clinton has lead in polls in occasion on both states, and in Arizona there is a good possibility of Joe Arpaio being defeated in Maricopa County. He is down by 10 points according to a Republican poll.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/13/1581957/-It-s-really-happening-New-poll-shows-Sheriff-Joe-Arpaio-down-10-points-and-it-s-from-a-Republican

Hmm, if Clinton wins Texas which populated counties could she flip? I would think Tarrant County and Fort Bend County.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: DINGO Joe on October 13, 2016, 10:49:27 pm
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Hmm, if Clinton wins Texas which populated counties could she flip? I would think Tarrant County and Fort Bend County.

Hays, Williamson, Nueces, maybe even Galveston


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: RJEvans on October 13, 2016, 10:54:44 pm
If there is one thing I want this election is that the Latino vote is not properly sampled in the polls and they turnout in higher than expected numbers, potentially putting AZ and TX in play on election day.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2016, 11:14:31 pm
Texas is tricky to poll due to its regional divides, large population, ethnic diversity, and lack of analogues in the behavior of other states. With the possible exception of Alaska, few states have so large a margin of error (4% for most states)... and a 4% lead for Trump in Texas is within the margin of error.

Although it is unlikely, Texas may be within reach of Hillary Clinton should Texas' educated white people vote like educated white people in other states and should Mexican-Americans vote like Mexican-Americans in California, Colorado, or New Mexico. This state has the largest number of potential Romney-to-Clinton voters (educated white voters and relatively-conservative Mexican-Americans). I expect the largest absolute swing from R to D in the Presidential election and one of the largest proportional swings from R to D in the Presidential election. Will that be enough to swing Texas? Only in a complete collapse of Donald Trump, which will make this Presidential election uninteresting.       


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 13, 2016, 11:17:39 pm
If Texas is within 2% on election day, then we can talk about it being a realistic target for dems in 2020. If not, accept its relative closeness as a consequence of a literal fascist being the republican nominee, expect it to revert back to 57-43 R (TPV) in 2020, and check back in 15 years. Under no circumstance do I actually see TX voting for Clinton.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Holmes on October 13, 2016, 11:35:19 pm
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Just because you're from there doesn't mean she should concentrate on it. I'd rather she fight for Arizona so I can be surrounded by Democratic states.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Eraserhead on October 13, 2016, 11:59:47 pm
You'd think that Johnson would be doing better than that here.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Lok on October 14, 2016, 12:53:37 am
The libertarian collapse is real.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: pbrower2a on October 14, 2016, 01:36:01 am

If Texas is within 2% on election day, then we can talk about it being a realistic target for dems in 2020. If not, accept its relative closeness as a consequence of a literal fascist being the republican nominee, expect it to revert back to 57-43 R (TPV) in 2020, and check back in 15 years. Under no circumstance do I actually see TX voting for Clinton.

No, Hillary Clinton has to win Texas for it to be a legitimate chance for her or her Democratic successor (reasons of health?) to win it in 2020. The state still leans clearly R, and will revert to "safe R" in 2020 with some Republican other than Trump as the Presidential nominee.    Obviously she will much more likely win the Presidency without Texas than with it. She has to win about 400 other electoral votes to have a real chance to win Texas.

It is not Hillary Clinton who would win Texas; it would be Donald Trump who loses it.  Donald Trump has offended enough sensibilities that he could lose Texas.

Texas can go Democratic, but such suggests that America is undergoing an era of Democratic dominance as with the Second New deal. 


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on October 14, 2016, 01:45:48 am
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on October 14, 2016, 01:50:14 am
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?

I don't think she has any infrastructure there, period.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Noted Irishman on October 14, 2016, 03:17:55 am
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Not a terrible idea, actually.  Is Clinton spending any money in Texas?

I don't think she has any infrastructure there, period.

To be fair, she doesn't have any real infrastructure in AZ & GA either. The perpetual "Oh my God we might flirt with [GA/AZ/TX]" shtick is getting old for those of us in these states and who have hope. They're basically just issuing press releases and leaking to the press in the hopes they'll force Republicans to invest more in these states and make their spend more effective in the battlegrounds.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: dspNY on October 14, 2016, 04:36:05 am
Whoa! Texas might not get called when the polls close...

We could see something like "NBC News characterizes Texas as too early to call, with Trump in the lead"


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Lok on October 14, 2016, 04:43:55 am
Whoa! Texas might not get called when the polls close...

We could see something like "NBC News characterizes Texas as too early to call, with Trump in the lead"
It would be too close to call, rather than too early, because too early means they don't have enough information to say what the state of that race is yet.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: Brittain33 on October 14, 2016, 05:58:05 am
Clinton has a small number of offices in Texas. She opened one in El Paso a month or so ago. Even if she can't turn the state, it's good for Democrats to get some experience and voter data there in preparation for the future.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 14, 2016, 08:01:26 am
Texas wasn't called at poll closing time in 2008. It won't be this time either. Hopefully the TX results will wake Republicans up.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: pbrower2a on October 14, 2016, 11:20:03 am
If Donald Trump has to defend Texas  -- it;s over.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: NOVA Green on October 14, 2016, 04:18:51 pm
Texas is tricky to poll due to its regional divides, large population, ethnic diversity, and lack of analogues in the behavior of other states. With the possible exception of Alaska, few states have so large a margin of error (4% for most states)... and a 4% lead for Trump in Texas is within the margin of error.

Although it is unlikely, Texas may be within reach of Hillary Clinton should Texas' educated white people vote like educated white people in other states and should Mexican-Americans vote like Mexican-Americans in California, Colorado, or New Mexico. This state has the largest number of potential Romney-to-Clinton voters (educated white voters and relatively-conservative Mexican-Americans). I expect the largest absolute swing from R to D in the Presidential election and one of the largest proportional swings from R to D in the Presidential election. Will that be enough to swing Texas? Only in a complete collapse of Donald Trump, which will make this Presidential election uninteresting.       

I have been saying for some time on this forum, that I believed Texas would be much closer than most expected this year.

Although I am not a Texan, I lived and worked there for four years in the Houston area, traveled and visited almost every part of the state, and Trump does not represent the values and beliefs of a large majority of Texans in most areas.

This is an "A" polling firm, and although Texas is one of the hardest states to poll, other than perhaps Florida, it does jive we what we have seen in other recent polls of Texas, combined with national polls.

Perhaps the worst news for Trump in the details of the poll is Trump is only up 6% in the 59 counties that include Metro Houston, all of East Texas, and parts of SouthEast Texas.

This appears to indicate a complete collapse in the Houston area, as I have mentioned on other threads, with Harris County swinging heavily Democratic by 10-15%, Fort Bend county moving into a likely D model, and the upper-middle Class Anglos in Montgomery County (The Woodlands) and also the new Exxon Corp HQ acting more like a 60-40 Republican County and less like an 80-20 R County.

Considering how overwhelmingly Republican, Anglo, and evangelical the vast majority of the remaining areas are outside of metro "H-Town", this is the only thing that could explain. I wish they posted a map of which counties were included so we can run the PVI, but Trump alone, appears to be turning metro Houston deep dark Red.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 14, 2016, 04:38:02 pm
Having grown up in a suburb of Dallas, I'll be curious to see how the Dallas suburban counties (Collin, Denton, and Tarrant) go.  These are counties awash with highly educated white Republicans, suburban sprawl, and megachurches.  They give huge margins to Republican Presidential candidates, although Tarrant (Ft. Worth) not as much.  Tarrant has actually been a pretty good bellwether county the last several cycles.

I imagine there are a lot of women in these suburbs that are repulsed by Trump.  It's unlikely Clinton can win Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), but I wouldn't be surprised to see a margin under 5 points.  And I'll be interested to see just how much she can run up the score in Dallas County.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: AGA on October 14, 2016, 05:07:18 pm
Wow, and Survey USA is a very highly rated pollster on 538.


Title: Re: Survey USA: Texas - Trump +4
Post by: NOVA Green on October 14, 2016, 07:14:23 pm
Clinton should forget about Arizona and Georgia and just go all in on Texas imo

Hmm, if Clinton wins Texas which populated counties could she flip? I would think Tarrant County and Fort Bend County.

Hays, Williamson, Nueces, maybe even Galveston

I would not be shocked if Williamson County (Round Rock) flips as a highly educated Anglo and Tech area (Dell) where McCain only garnered 55% in '08.

Also, I would add Bastrop County to the watchlist, as a primarily rural county East of Austin that is increasingly a retirement county and second homes within Austin Metro.

Atascosa County is likely another flip county, directly South of SA and heavily Latino.

Skeptical on Galveston County, but if Trump completely collapses in the upper-income Anglo burbs of Houston it might be enough to combine the City of Galveston on the Island and add in the retirees in South Island, but still you have the refinery workers of places like League City that might be more Trump type voters.....