Talk Elections

No link, yet, just a headline on the Drudge Report.  I'll update this post when we get actual numbers.

Edit: Actual Results (https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/10/16/National-Politics/Polling/release_452.xml?tid=a_inl)
Four-Way:
Clinton 47% (+1 from September 19-22 poll)
Trump 43% (-1)
Johnson 5% (+0)
Stein 2% (+1)
(Vol.) Other Candidate * (+0)
(Vol.) None of these 1% (+0)
(Vol.) Would not vote 0% (+0)
No Opinion 2% (-1)

Two-Way:
Clinton 50% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)
(VOL.) Other Candidate * (+0)
(VOL.) Neither 2% (+1)
(VOL.) Would not vote 1% (-1)
No opinion 1% (+0)

October 10-13; 740 Likely Voters; MoE +/-4%

Seems like Trump is making a comeback.

Shameful country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/09/25/National-Politics/Polling/release_446.xml?tid=a_inl

It was Clinton +2 on 9/28, so I'll take it.

don't forget...last poll:

ABC News/Wash Post   9/19 - 9/22   651 LV   4.5   46   44   5   1   Clinton +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html#polls

I'm skeptical. George Stephanopolous usually tweets about the ABC/WaPo the day before his Sunday show. There was no such tweet today.

I'll believe it when I see it, especially coming from Drudge.

Sad,

monster is within 4 points of becoming our next president..

4 is well within the range of statistical noise

But the state polls (particularly from swing states like NC & FL) don't indicate that Hillary's lead has eroded.

Well ABC Politics just tweeted about it (https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/787473095816863744) two minutes ago. What a coincidence.

First - Dems need to chill - plus this has regularly been one of Clinton's worst major polls. I think it's an outlier

A four point lead is solid.  I don't know why people here have their panties in a twist.

Dems here chill? Are you new here?

Clinton +4 is a totally normal poll result in a Clinton +7 national environment, so even if Drudge is accurate, it wouldn't bother me until we got further polling confirming a tight national race.  

But yes, I want to wait for a source other than Drudge.

538 adjusted the last one (C+2 on 9/28) by 2 points to C+4. This would probably be adjusted to C+5 or 6, which is really pretty stable with what we've been seeing recently.

@ronnie....to think that the race has tightened in the middle of trump-mageddon would just be pure madness. ;)

Exactly, she's up anywhere between 6-8% on average. 4% totally within that range just the same way the NBC +11 was.

Also it's a 2 point improvement since their last poll and it's Drudge.

I know... but the pant-wetting is never not irritating

I agree.  We'll see if Monmouth corroborates the result on Monday at 10 AM, but I have no reason to worry regardless.

which is kind of interesting since it's an A+ pollster.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-national-poll-sept-19-22-2016/2094/
http://progressivearmy.com/2016/09/11/truth-behind-the-polls-how-polling-methodology-hides-what-america-really-wants/


This must be their secret sauce that lets them push super close toplines.

Hold on, is there a reason everyone is taking drudge's number at face value? Hasn't he routinely posted exit poll or poll teasers that are off?

Drudge wouldn't lie about it.  He probably has access to tomorrow's Washington Post right now.  In some places, you can get an early edition of the Sunday paper on Saturday night.

He lied about exit polls during the primary.

Then why doesnt he just post the numbers?

Drudge has lied or posted exit poll/poll data that is off by a few numbers in the past...

i doubt that would be legal.

just assume it's correct.

i guessed we are in for a +5 average anyway.

He's already leaked the "topline".

Clinton wouldn't be doing zero events this weekend if she was only up by low single digits.

This isn't an early exit poll, which Joe Public never sees.  It is a very verifiable poll that will be released for all to see shortly after midnight.  There is very little reason to lie about it.  He would be proven wrong.


All non-political geeks care about is the margin.  We care about more than that, but we're atypical.

Honestly, I'm not worried. The last debate is coming up and who knows what other tapes are on the way for Trump. And this is within the MoE.

i would have loved for the race to be +10 hillary at some point but if trumo scandals alone could have achieved that, it would have happened months ago.

Lol, true. When they polled last though, Marist had a C+6, and NBC/WSJ had a C+7. So they do seem to lean a little R for whatever reason.

Overall, this is a little disappointing. But, maybe not as much as it seems on the surface.

Why doesnt he just post the topline if he has it?

i guess too much details would be a problem.

and highlighting a result without any link is silly too.

'

Who knows?  Maybe he just has the WaPo headline, not the actual paper.  Maybe he thinks it's too inside baseball and nobody cares.  Maybe he doesn't want to burn his source at the Washington Post.

I doubt Drudge would lie about it, though.  He'd end up looking bad.

That ship sailed years ago.

drudge got full-course bat-sh**t crazy the last days and lying/get such a thing wrong  would be much less damning in my eyes.

but i am quite sure it's true.

this election will be far closer than assumed...once again. ;)

Exactly.
It's the f**king Drudge. Are you kidding !

I hope Drudge is wrong about this...Hopefully the real poll comes out with Clinton at +8.

if the last poll has been hillary +2 in late september.... (one of her worse polls) and let's say she was at +6 directly after the second debate....

+4 sounds right.

I mean .... I could be wrong, but the fact that it's coming from The Drudge and it's a low number .... I just have this doubt also.
I'm not hoping for some "very large number" .... but +4 sounds a bit on the low-side.

the only POSSIBLE take on that would be...hillary +4 compared to the last poll.

but not very realistic i guess...prepare for hillary +4 in 4-way. ;)

I ain't seeing sh*t on Drudge.

look on the little headlines in the top-left corner.

still developing since there will be nothing until tomorrow.

Tomorrow is just about 1.25 to 1.5 hours away, if the times the WaPo has released the poll in the past is any indication.

are those numbers usually officially shared before the morning shows?

Well I see no reason to doubt the veracity of this unlinked blurb!

ABC News/Washington Post numbers usually are.  They usually drop on the WaPo website around 12:15AM-12:30AM Eastern time.  That gives the Washington Post time to print the results in their Sunday editions.

the "real problem" is that literally no one else seems to have got an early copy of the WAPO.

insider i guess.

thanks so much...then i am going to wait i guess. ;P

just wanted to know the details...not really shocked...i see trump as an eternal comeback kid, even with most of his bases collapsing.

I believe what Drudge says. +4 is actually a decent result for Trump. If it was +7 or +8, Drudge wouldn't be the first to leak it.

This number could totally be right, but you have to understand from our perspective that none of us trust Drudge for accurate information and for good reason.  

I'm sick.  Something is not right.  She should be up by much more.  This poll was conducted after the debates, Trump's Taxes, Miss Universe, pussygate, and gropping gate.

drudge is crazy and gets crazier for years.

in the past i just thought he is tabloid right-wing guy....this year he is literally another part of the russian intelligence machine.

still no good reason to hype something like fake numbers.

Dude... it's one poll and one that's been much stronger for Trump all GE season.

C-A-L-M.

I guess we'll know in an hour or so.

Mark Murray replied to Harry Enten on Drudge leaking the margin:


https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/787494808973631488

@mmurraypolitics
@ForecasterEnten To quote Yoda: "No, there is ... another"

Any idea what he means?

Maybe NBC news will have a new poll out with a big Clinton margin? Who knows.

Marist does have a national poll coming out on Monday that he would know about.

I'm not in the business of believing anything on Drudge, but it is within the ballpark of what is probably about a six point national race.

Harry is also laughing at the idea of Trump being up 4 is good news for the Fascists.

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  5s5 seconds ago
Brand new national ABC/Post poll of likely voters just released at midnight:

Clinton 47
Trump 43
Johnson 5
Stein 2

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/enthusiasm-trump-fades-partisanship-close-poll/story?id=42815332

10/10-10/13, 740 LV, 4% MOE (for LV)

"• Enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters has subsided from 91 percent last month to 79 percent now, erasing his advantage over Clinton on this measure.

• Conversely, the share of Clinton supporters who say they might change their minds has dropped from 16 to 9 percent. Eighty-nine percent say they’re definitely for her, up 6 points."

()

Quite a drop.

Actually good news.

practically they are hyping clinton on every question besides topline....

Screw the margin, Hillary in the high 40's is excellent!

Trump can't win in the low 40's / high 30's.

Expecting good news out of an NBC or Marist national poll tomorrow or Monday.

Did they poll the 2-way?

Yup, 50-46 Clinton.

#50

what seems to be clear:

clinton stays in the front-seat with more motivation, less undecideds and thirds fading.

talk about consolidation.

"Partisan divisions are 33-25-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, 32-29-33 among registered voters and 33-31-31 among likely voters."


This part stuck out with me. They think Republican turnout will be much greater compared to their partisan division.

Yeah, I really think pollsters are going to get burned when their likely voter screens turn out to be absolutely wrong.

what will have killed him if he loses:

ABC/WaPo poll: 68% of voters believe that Trump has made unwanted sexual advances on women. Just 14% believe that he has not.

()

More men said Trump's comments were "beyond how men typically talk" than women. Isn't that sad?

Why I believe this poll is overstating his support.

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  5m5 minutes ago
Key stat from new ABC/Post poll: More than half -- 54 percent -- of Johnson and Stein supporters say they could change their minds.

LOL!!!

ABC/WaPo last two polls in 2012 showed +3 Obama (final margin +3.9) while other polls showed a nailbiter. I take them at their methodology.

Not a surprising stat for 3rd party candidates.

This poll has some very odd crosstabs.

silly question...

does that mean they adjusted their result to their concept of likely voters?

this amazingly strict concept would explain the A+ state since nate loves those and the close seeming +4 topline.

also means: if there are as many dems as reps voting, the independents break for hillary.

Yeah, like Clinton leads 51-38 among college-educated whites, while Trump leads 62-31 among non-college-educated whites. I would think that would be a much larger lead than 4 points.

Then you ain't looking hard enough. It's everywhere.

explaining the trump campaign in a nutshell:

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Everything about this poll screams high single digit lead, i'm not sure what the deal is.

Not sure what you mean...nearly every poll we're getting these days has a likely voter screen.

they assume as many democrats as republicans are going to vote and there are more non-college educated whites.

if you adjust to their party baseline, it seems to make sense.

Some more stats:

H2H: Clinton 50, Trump 46
Clinton favorables: 40/57
Trump favorables: 35/63
Clinton won the debate 45/32
Trump's comment about jailing Clinton: 40/57 disapprove
Clinton's qualifications: 59/40
Clinton's honesty: 34/62
Clinton's temperament: 59/40
Clinton's moral character: 45/52
Trump's qualifications: 39/58
Trump's honesty: 34/64 (now slightly worse than Clinton)
Trump's temperament: 34/64
Trump's moral character: 30/66
Trump represents Republican values: 35/57
Economy: 47/46 Trump
Terrorism: 48/46 Clinton
Immigration: 48/47 Clinton
International crisis: 55/39 Clinton
Ethics in gov't: 45/37 Clinton
Looks out for middle class: 51/37 Clinton
Women's rights: 69/22 Clinton
Trump tape: 1/35/63 (more likely/less likely/no difference in Trump vote)
Trump's apology: 38/57, it is insincere
Trump's comments: 40/52 abnormal comments about women
Trump's sexual depravity: 68/14 in making unwanted sexual advances
Hillary's behavior towards Bill's accusers: 34/62, not a legitimate campaign issue
Trump's sexual conduct: 55/42, a legitimate issue
Bill's sexual conduct: 30/67, not a legitimate issue
Congressman/woman supporting Trump: 17/37/43 (more likely to support/less likely/makes no diff.)

Yeah, this isn't a bad poll at all looking at its guts.

ok...differently:

nearly all the other posts we get assumes there are going to be much more registered dems than reps.

this poll disagrees and shows a nearly equal number of dems and reps...with indies deciding the tie.

and you don't need to answer me anymore, i forgot a little thing...only likely matters now.

which means:

if as many dems than reps are voting ...hillary still is going to win outside of the MOE.

Me too...college-educated whites vote at far higher levels. Each group makes up about 35-36% of the electorate. You would get a lead of Trump +10 with all white voters which make up 72% of the electorate. If Trump only wins white voters by 10 he's losing by far more than 4. Romney won white voters by 20 and lost by 3.9%

h2h at 50 is a very solid figure, as is 47% in the four way.

Plus, Trump will lose nonwhite voters by a worse margin than Romney...his vote share would look something like this if he wins whites by 10, assuming the minor parties get 6% of the vote

Whites: Trump 52, Clinton 42 (72%)
African-Americans: Clinton 86, Trump 8 (12%)
Hispanics: Clinton 70, Trump 24 (11%)
Other: Clinton 65, Trump 29 (5%)

Using those percentages, Clinton would win by 10

As Nate Cohn said, you can give the same raw data to different pollsters and they'll come up with different results depending on their expectations of turnout.

Many of these renowned polls all use good methodologies. The subjective part of how to interpret it is the real difficult part.

Meh, this isn't catastrophic, but it's still annoying to see Drudge be right about something.

If Clinton is losing the white vote by 9 (which is what the poll says based on college/non-college split) and you leave all other variables (turnout and support) from 2012 the same + factor in demographic attrition, then Clinton would be ahead by 11-12.

I am afraid, this is exactly where the race is. Not at all comfortable.

Under this group, a respectable Latino politics group projected that Hillary's vote share from Latinos would be between 76.5% and 87.5%. I just wonder what turnout would be like.

We've got YouGov and SurveyMonkey tomorrow and Marist on Monday to hopefully disprove that.

surveymonkey is too bullish on hillary in my opinion.

i prefer a water-tight, super-selected poll like this, which shows many "strange" crosstabs and still has a clear clinton lead.

One positive I took away from this poll for Democrats is that 6% of Trump supporters say they could change mind; 3% for Hillary supporters.

Monmouth too

Most of the crosstabs suggest a much better topline number, but it is what it is I suppose. If I only saw the college-educated white number, I would have guessed a 10-point lead. The drop in enthusiasm among Trump supporters is a good thing though.

What really sticks out to me is the collapse of the gender gap compared to their previous poll. I'm not sure how you go from a 38-point gender gap to an 8-point one in just three weeks.

I don't like the closeness of this poll, but this should keep the Clinton campaign and her supporters on their toes until the results start coming in.

Got you.  Yes, the partisan self-ID on this poll is closer than in most others.  That may suggest that this poll ended up with a slightly more Republican sample than others.

Important note: When you ask someone what party they identify with, it's different than asking them with what party they're registered as.  There are quite a few states where Democrats have a strong registration advantage but do terribly at the Presidential level, like West Virginia and Oklahoma.  There are also states that have no party registration.  Even if you do ask people how they're registered, they often respond with their party self-ID.  Not everyone remembers off-hand which party they're registered with, after all.

Pollsters are reluctant to correct for partisan self-ID, even if they get an unusual-looking result, because unlike demographics -- which are static -- people change their partisan self-IDs as the race changes.  If, say, a bunch of people get upset at Trump and stop IDing as Republicans, you'll start finding polls with fewer Republicans and more Independents.  If this happens, re-weighing the party ID to match the "normal" numbers could give a significant pro-Trump skew.

Hope that answers things.

This poll essentially tells me that GOTV will be essentially and we all know where the two camps stand on that front.

Also reweighting based on party ID is exactly what that Dean Chambers idiot did in 2012. Enough said.

Although the topline isn't fantastic, the internals of the poll are certainly solid for Clinton.  She continues to do very well with independents and college-educated whites, which allows her to narrowly "outperform" the party ID split by a couple of points.

Since party ID is fluid, it's tough to guess exactly how it's gonna come out, but Clinton is currently in a great position for a 5-10 point national margin if she just gets out the Dem base.

Exactly this feels much better than the topline.

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.

Was just about to post this. Interesting decision.

It's not a "decision". These adjustments are made based on a statistical model (I'd guess something like an OLS regression, though it might be something more complicated) that takes into account factors such as trend and house effect. I don't know how they got to this adjustment (I'm surprised by it myself), but this is not a judgment call by Silver or anyone.

Lol, I'm not and I don't think so

I don't think either side is happy with this poll.

There is a reason we use aggregates people.

The last poll was taken nearly a month ago, but that was when Trump was enjoying a good run. Had they conducted a poll, say, a week ago then I suspect Hillary would have led by more than 4.

I was already pointed but it's worth repeating - there are MoEs on polls. I think the aggregate of polls indicates Clinton is ahead by 7% or so. A 4% lead is just at the low end of a 95% confidence interval around that point.

You should always have some polls coming in at a lead several % below where you think the race actually is.

Apologies if this was noted earlier in the thread...has anyone been able to find education / race crosstabs on this?

ABC was always good about posting a nice chart with earlier polls, but I can't seem to find one for this one.

I'm fully aware of that. That doesn't make it any less disturbing that what should have been one of the worst weeks in American history for a presidential candidate barely makes a dent in the polling. Do keep in mind that Hillary was already up 5-6% prior to the Access Hollywood tape. All public polling has also shown that she won the second debate decisively, albeit by a smaller margin than the first. With an entire week dedicated to that tape and now a substantial number of women claiming sexual assault from the Republican nominee, the race is still this close. What would it take? Sexual assaulting women isn't enough? What if a woman or women come forward to say they were raped? Would that make any difference?

Unlike some, I don't think we're seeing a civil war or death of a political party. I think we may be seeing the end of a great power, the United States itself. All great powers have eventually reached an end point. I don't think Donald Trump himself is the end, but I think the movement he has encouraged and adopted is very dangerous. The only sign to the contrary would be a serious and massive rejection of that viewpoint by the electorate. A four point margin is not that sort of rejection by the masses.

Well, look at the NBC poll and feel better. ;)

When your worst poll is a lead outside the margin of error, there is nothing to freak out about.

Not to be hyper-technical, but the margin of error applies to the values of each given choice, not the percentage margin.  That is, the finding is Clinton at 47% +/- 4%, and Trump at 43% +/- 4%.  It's not a 4% lead +/- 4%; the MoE is bigger than that.  This poll is, in fact, within MoE.

Hope this is a change for trump doing well hillary i s a crook and a mess i'm glad this is my first ele tion and votinf trump nobody young i know likes her.

Hard to get to know Clinton supporters when you never leave your parent's basement.

Especially if your parents basement is in Moscow.

Please, young Russians know English much better than this chap.

So we have two polls conducted in the same time span that show Clinton +4 and +11. Averaging them gets us to +7.5, which is about where she stood right before the debate. So this would suggest that the race has remained stable.

i'm 23, i'm sure u say this since hillary said this about bernie supporters, i work on wall st in manhattan :) more successful than you at the gas station

Well it's easy to get a job scrubbing toilets on the trading floor.

If we change nothing at all for the non-white groups from 2012 (optimistic for Trump to say the least; the +24 among Hispanics in this poll for Clinton is obviously a downward statistical fluctuation), and match the margins for college and non-college whites in this poll, you would need to increase non-college white turnout by 30% in order to match the topline numbers (and/or decrease college white turnout accordingly).  There's no real evidence that that's happening.

On the flip side, if you increase Clinton's two-way support among Hispanics to 80% (in line with other polling) and don't futz with turnout in each demographic, this would correspond to a 10.5% win for Clinton (2012+NC+GA+AZ+NE-2), according to the 538 demographic calculator.

Trump just tweeted that he hrc is down 11 points with women voters in the poll

No, he's down 8 with women.

yup

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/787760670590791680

It's scary that a guy who plays fast and loose with the truth and basic verifiable facts could become president

It's times like these I think there should be a basic intelligence test before voting. If you can't spell 'election'; maybe you shouldn't be allowed to 'votinf' one.

I can see you are bitter young people don't like the crook we are making her lose, i cannot wait!

Young 21-year old urban professional checking in; I'm voting for Hillary. So are most of my friends. #AnecdotalEvidence

Are you by any chance related to that guy?

()

You are from Oregon.. Portland i'm assuming aka liberal weed smoker life. Trump is the lesser of two evils.

Most of the young people I know are either bernie or busters or are for Clinton. Very few of the Bernie or Busters are landing on Trump (the count exactly is one), most are landing on not voting.

Driving around this city, I have found few Trump signs, being outnumbered by Clinton signs. There are some Johnson signs, almost equal to the amount of Trump signs. I acknowledge Trump probably wins this state, but the enthusiasm is very small compared to 2012 when Romney completely DOMINATED Obama in terms of signage.

That may just be Tulsa trending Democrat though, as it has been.

Southern Oregon actually; and while I'm in favor of pot being decriminalized, I actually don't smoke it. Thanks for making sweeping generalizations though. Face it, the silent majority is with #MadamePresident!

The same generalizations that i live in a basement when that's laughable :).  Are you gay as well?

That I made? Not last time I checked; and attempting to bring sexuality into a discussion about polls? So what if I was? Irrelevant and also quite classy of you, keep throwing things against the wall until something sticks, eh? You've learned quite well from your supreme leader.

I'll see you November 8th; until then this is pointless. ;)

I'm asking because i am as well. I am voting for trump because of the supreme court... i. An careless if hillary wins it's not like anything she wants will get through congress. The republicans will win in 2020

Good for you! #YoungGayDivasWithMoneyForTRUMP High Five, boo!

LOL

If you want to vote for a man whom has every intention of choosing a supreme court whom will overturn marriage equality and whom has chosen a running mate whom openly supported laws that allowed businesses to discriminate against gay people then go ahead; self hate is a very sad thing, and I for one enjoy having my civil rights protected.

This is not how "whom" works...