Talk Elections

http://winwithjmc.com/archives/7488
Trump's down from 10 in September, 15 in July.

Trump 45
Clinton 38
Johnson 4
Stein 1
Undecided 12

WTF? How is Trump leading in Los Angeles?

I hope your being deliberately obtuse.

No, it's Lower Alabama (i.e. the Florida Panhandle). ;)

Maybe Trump should do a rally with David Duke to firm up his support.

@Tender: Obama lost Louisiana by 17 in 2012 while winning the election by 4.  I suppose this 10 point swing in margin would suggest a national PV margin of 14 for Clinton, correct? 

No senate poll?
I'm curious :P

Very low energy margin in what should be one of Trump's safest states. Sad!

New Poll: Louisiana President by JMC Enterprises on 2016-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2220161015165)

Summary: D: 38%, R: 45%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fleming-Executive-Summary-Poll-3-RELEASE.pdf)

As much as I’d love it, the fake billionaire is not in danger of losing LA, though these numbers are pretty weak for a GOPer. Especially that he’s well under 50%.

They did poll it, see the appropriate board.

Another possibility: the regional polarization that so marked elections involving Barack Obama is no longer as severe. Many white people in the Mountain and and Deep South who used to vote Democratic for Carter or Clinton distrusted Barack Obama because he is ... I need not say it. Can they 'come home'? Maybe to some extent.

There will not be a 10-point national swing in the vote from Obama to Clinton even in a landslide. The biggest large swings are likely in states that Barack Obama lost by huge margins. Even swings are for small margins in close elections.

Of course we might also see a Trump collapse this time.

I was obviously just taking a shot at our resident sweaty dog, pbrower.  No need for #analysis. 

I mean, the national polling has shown Clinton substantially improving on Obama's numbers with whites. It is not surprising then that states in the South might narrow considerably.

delicious

ROFL

Bill Clinton won here twice. Clearly Hillary's in trouble. :P

It looks like the sexual misconduct allegations against Trump are starting to impact even heavily Republican parts of the Deep South.

Time for another poll of Mississippi and South Carolina anyone? ;)

You already know I'm down for this! :)

We're all down with that brother!!!!

Obviously LA isn't gonna flip this year, despite the increased number of Katrina refugees moving back home from places like Houston, Texas, and maybe some Cajun Catholics reverting to their traditional Democratic voting patterns, and some older White Evangelical ladies that can't stomach the Trump.

However if LA is really this close, what the heck is going on down in MS and SC, where it doesn't take a huge swing of White voters to move those states to proper tossup-status?

Shoot.... I never would have thought my former state of Texas would be anywhere close for another decade or more, but the Trump Train is going off the tracks to the point where we are even discussing these possibilities!

This poll might well be crap, but now we are finally starting to see both national polls, as well as those in solidly Republican states swing heavily after the sexual battery/assault charges by nine different ladies.... In the "Babble Belt" that dog don't hunt and needs to be put down. :)

In 1996, LA voted for Bill by 12-13 points while he won nationally by 8-9. Clinton didn't just barely squeak out a win like he did in TN or KY, but that was a solid landslide in LA. Maybe its time to send Bill back into Cajun country.