Talk Elections

Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/788025701224050688 (https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/788025701224050688)

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/ (http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/)

http://heatst.com/politics/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/?mod=sm_tw_post

Trump - 30,
McMullin -29
Clinton - 28
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

10/15-10/16, 725 LV, 4% MOE

Great poll!

Wow!  It looks like UT really could go to any of the three.

LOL. #Muffinmentum and #TrumpCollpase.

Gary Johnson's in free-fall here. Not overly surprising, I guess.

This would be an amazing finish!

Johnson has crashed

it's a Rassy poll so I remain a skeptic

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

GLORIOUS!

This is funny.

McMullin's the favorite in UT now as far as I'm concerned.

Could Johnson + McMullin give Idaho to Clinton?

From Trump U Rasmussen no less. Freedom poll!

Mormons are (at best) a quarter of the electorate in Idaho, as opposed to three-quarters in Utah.  Trump could lose a majority in Utah, but he'd still win the plurality.

OK, Rasmussen, but still... go Evan! ;)

Yeah, there's enough non-Mormon Republicans in Idaho to keep it in line.

If Trump continues to crash and burn though I think McMullin has a pretty good chance in Utah if his name recognition keeps climbing.

Note that the survey date is after we already had multiple Utah polls released with McMullin at 20% or more.  As I said a few days ago, the mere fact that McMullin made it to 20% or more in a couple of polls has the possibility of creating a positive feedback loop for him: The Utah media gives a bunch of coverage to McMullin's poll #s, which exposes many more Utah voters to the fact that there is a guy running for president named Evan McMullin, which boosts his poll #s, which leads to more media coverage, etc.  It's not unexpected for a candidate starting with low name recognition but high support among those who know him.

He has the momentum but I'm not sure he can sustain it for 3 weeks. He needs money. Barnstorm the state and maybe he can pull it off. I will love it.

The more that the media disclose about the personal life of Donald Trump, the less compatible he seems with Mormon values. Add to that, his ethnic and religious bigotry is incompatible with Mormon objectives of proselytizing to people in America, including illegal aliens.

It may now be hard to believe, but Utah used to be a fairly-reliable Democratic state, going every time for FDR (OK, lots of states did) and Truman in a close election in 1948. Only in the 1950s did it go Republican as Dwight Eisenhower successfully cultivated the Mormon vote.

Mormons used to be religious 'outsiders' who did not fully trust the Protestant Establishment, and voted something like Jews. Eisenhower convinced Mormons that they were mainstream and that the GOP had become friendly to Mormons.  

We had Dixiecrats, what should McMullin's supporters be called.

Mormoncans?

I'd probably vote for him in Utah

Traitor.

So should Trump run negative ads against McMullin?  Or is that stupid because it just raises his profile even more?

Moreover, does he even have the money to bother running ads in UT? He's pulled out of VA. If he did, though, it would be a boon for McMullin for sure.

Other question is does the Clinton camp make a play here or maybe even give support to McMullin?

The "play" I'd try to make is to GOTV since if McMullin can pull more Trump support she has a chance to win it with say 30% of the vote or so. Or maybe run a negative ad or so against Trump to just tank him in general, don't even say "vote for Clinton".

Suddenly everyone trusts Rasmussen here? How convenient.

Its another poll showing this race close more than anything.

Considering Rasmussen normally has a noted pro-Trump house effect, a poll from Rasmussen showing Trump weak is indeed a noteworthy survey.

This goes along with other polls, isn't the CBS poll kind of screwy with 3rd party candidates?

Mormonpublican? Mormocrat?

Side note, the early 1830s and 40s Mormons called the politicians and militias against them "mobocrats".

And yeah, considering this is Rasmussen, I imagine the Clinton/McMullin numbers could be even higher. A dead heat is still pretty impressive though.

I would vote for McMullin if I lived in Utah

Out of curiosity, are in Utah, as your profile says?  Can you give us any "on the ground" insight into McMentum?  Is McMullin getting covered on local news, and does he have a lot of yard signs and so forth?

And McMullin still has under 50% name recognition state wide..

he very, very easily could win this state in the next three weeks.

They do have an R lean, but that's based on two-way polling data.  I'd be very hesitant to assume that it necessarily applies in a close three-way race.

What would he say? That McMullin has no experience with elected office?

maybe the mccaskill strategy? dems campaigning against mcmullen?

I do in fact live in Utah, and I am in fact a Democrat, and Mormon as well.

I can't really give too much insight onto the "on the ground" stuff, as I'm not involved with McMullin's campaign, or really any campaign at the moment.

Here's what I can say: the majority of Utahs despise both Trump and Clinton, and don't really see anything to admire in Gary Johnson either, though they don't hate him as much. But with two and a half hated candidates, Utah became fertile ground for someone who isn't any of those candidates.

Enter Evan McMullin into the scene. McMullin is heavily promoted by local political-watchers, and he is at first considered a meaningless protest candidate (which, outside of Utah, he is), but he steadily gains support. Eventually these newest polls show he could actually win Utah, albeit with a plurality. The local media goes wild, and there's dozens of articles on McMullin from every newspaper, and McMullin even scores a couple of interviews.

This positive feedback is building up his support even more, as more people learn who McMullin is, and compare him favorably to the two front-runners and the Libertarians (who Utahns aren't really compatible with anyway). McMullin's soft-spoken but firm style, service in the CIA (incidentally, there are a lot of Mormons in the FBI and CIA), and his Mormon faith and values greatly appeal to Utahns, especially considering the two front-runners.

It doesn't hurt that McMullin is mostly campaigning in Mormon-heavy areas in Utah and Idaho. Specifically, in Idaho, he's campaigned in areas with BYU-I students... some of whom are from Utah and vote absentee. So that's even more potential Utah votes.

As for signs, I haven't seen many yet, but he is getting covered in local news extensively.

I would expect endorsements to pile on for McMullin after the last debate and mmoreTrump leaks.

What positive message could Donald Trump have for Utah?

Grabbing women's crotches isn't a Mormon value. Walking into female changing rooms if one is a man isn't a Mormon value. Involvement with gambling or pornography offends Mormon values.  There could be some very late voting in Utah, and it might not go well for Trump.

First presidential election since 1924  in which some independent or Third Party nominee who is not a racist secession from one of the two main parties wins the electoral votes of a state? That would be rich.

Mormons have a right to their sexual values, and the message might as well be clear: do not expect Mormon votes as a Presidential nominee if you violate those values. In an election that they know will be a Trump loss, they might want to teach us all a valid lesson.   

BASEHEAD DON IS SWEATING LIKE A DOG! Great poll!

This is very good news for McMullin. Right now, he seems to be gaining support from his rallies and the earlier polls. If the endorsements start flowing in, I'd put Utah down as lean McMullin.


That's my thought as well. McMullin will definitely wins some counties in Southeastern Idaho.


Yeah. To vote McMullin, Johnson, or Stein, you had to choose other and then those options would be given.

Madison County Idaho, which houses BYU Idaho (BYU-I), will probably vote for McMullin. Several of the southwestern Idaho counties are heavily Mormon (in fact, a couple of our prophets have come from that area), so I imagine McMullin will win those counties as well.

Agree completely. Even if they're more conservative, I still respect Mormons much more than (political) Evangelicals, because they actually try to live up to, and vote according to, their morals and values.

A side number that should be heartening for McMullin: Utahns seem to like the intrigue and attention. 65% now think Utah will be more important electorally than usual this year.

I think this state is now Mcmullin's to lose, with greater local and national coverage from results like this he can parlay being the only pro-life candidate in a conservative Mormon state to a solid plurality

Considering that any positive fraction is larger than zero, they're right. ;)

Not fighting the silliness of the question :) But it doesn't hurt for them to be self-aware of the new attention their getting and its implications.

I doubt it,  probably best to try to ignore him as much as possible.

O

M

G

It's actually happening.

How great would it be if Trump actually came in third place?

In the words of Donald J. Trump; to the people of Utah,

What the hell have you got to lose?

If McMullin wins Utah, what color will the news orgs use for a McMullin state?

A third hypothetical McMullin vote if I lived in Utah

()

Unweighted Google Consumer Survey has it fairly close as well.

It's probably too late for McMullin. He needs way more endorsements and exposure in order to chip away Trump voters.

I'm hoping this ends up just creating a right-wing schism to ironically propel Clinton over the top.

Hell, I would consider voting McMullin if I lived in Utah just so that the map might have a third color.

That's basically the plan for Utah Democrats.

Nah, they won't want to confuse people by using yellow or green. Maybe they'll use orange.

Evan McMullin is on Tom Ashbrook podcast mentions that there is a UT poll due today.

He makes far more sense than kooky Johnson and Stein

Question. If McMullin wins Utah, and the rest of the college is something like 268-264 Clinton, do the Utah electors stay faithful to McMullin therefore giving the election to Clinton, or is there an elimination system to get someone to 270?

Each state's congressional delegation (minus Senators) would keep voting among the three until someone wins a majority of delegations in a majority of the states. Assuming Republicans maintain control in the majority of states, the most likely options are Republicans would vote in Trump, or would cut a deal with some Democrats to vote in McMullin. If they failed to decide on someone in time, the person the Senate picked for VP (among Pence and Kaine) would become Acting President until the House picked someone.

Won't they use orange for Trump? ;)

Amen!

538 uses purple for him, which makes for a good Independent Conservative colour I think.

Honestly, Hillary should pull out of Utah and urge Democrats to vote for McMuffin. She doesn't need the state and such a move would definitely block Trump from winning it. That would be glorious. Even more spectacular would be Trump coming in third.

ronpaulitshappening.gif

Give me a break, if this were a real country, the Green Party would be on of the two major parties.

Thanks. So there is no real benefit to Clinton in pulling out and letting McMullin win the state, she might as well fight for the 6 electoral votes herself?

And what will their opposition be? The Kanye West caucus?