Talk Elections

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388

CO
Clinton 45
Trump 37
Johnson 10

FL
Clinton 48
Trump 44
Johnson 4

OH
Clinton 45
Trump 45
Johnson 6

PA
Clinton 47
Trump 41
Johnson 6

This are pretty good numbers for HRC. Quinnipiac has had a GOP house effect the entire cycle.

That's about right if we are talking a seven point election.  So yeah. Maybe Trump can stage a comeback in the Northeast but that will be a Hail Mary. He's pretty much done in Colorado and Florida seems to be slipping. He's strong-ish in Ohio.

Considering Q's Trump lean, these numbers look excellent!

blowout.....

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
Colorado: Clinton tops Trump 51 - 40 percent;
Florida: Clinton over Trump 49 - 45 percent;
Ohio: Trump at 48 percent to Clinton's 47 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 51 - 45 percent.

Well .... it seems that Hillary and Kaine have some work to do in Ohio.
I wonder if sending Sanders and Obama there can help ?
Some recent polling for OH is starting to concern me (though Clinton is still looking very good in the Dem FireWall, and especially in the rich-EC state of Florida).

Stein is at 3% in CO and 1% in the other three states.

The writing is on the wall, Don.

She really fell apart, didn't she?

So, that's 300-302 votes that are outside the MoE, then? It seems that North Carolina and Nevada are the D wildcards, Georgia and Arizona are the R wildcards and Iowa and Ohio are the true tossups at this point.

WOW! Even this hack Republican pollster has Cinton surging! GREAT HONOR!

still don't believe iowa is going back....proto-state for trump's shtick.

Clinton gained 6 points in CO
Trump gain 1 point in FL
Clinton gained 5 points in OH
Clinton gained 2 points in PA

FL is definitely Lean D, at this point. CO is absolutely gone and PA is probably gone. OH is looking close, but given Q's lean, I'll take a tie.

Loving those Florida numbers!

Did she? She was always polling pretty low.

I could see her doing alright in CO, the other three states are terrible for her.

Does any Pennsylvania resident know if this is true?

PENNSYLVANIA LIKELY VOTERS

Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom Wht NonWht
34%   42%   20% 44% 56% 80% 18%


I have a hard time believing that women make up 56% of PA voters and that's weighted btw.

These are the kind of state margins I think we'd see in a 5 point Clinton win nationally.  Given that Quinnipiac has had a slight Republican lean this cycle, that checks out pretty well.

In the summer she was pulling 4-5% in some states.

Stein is like your typical far-left protest vote, much like whipped cream, deflates at the slightest hint of pressure.

Is it petty of me to hope Clinton loses OH and wins FL so there record of voting for the winner can be broken?! Ultimately, hope she wins both

Nate Silver adjusted +2 Clinton for all four states.

Quinnipiac is terribly republican leaning in Colorado, so Clinton +8 is pretty glorious.

In fact all of these numbers are good - especially Clinton at nearly 50 in Florida WITH third parties.

Ohio may not be a swing state much longer :(

No way can Donald Trump win with these numbers.

HAHAHAHAHAHA YES!!!

Heel my sweaty dog.... HEEL!!!

The most salient question, though, is Trump leading in the all important Luzerne County, PA...home of working class white Reagan Democrats???? Please, Quinnipiac, let us know.

Luzerne went blue every election since 1992 so I doubt it.

The joke over the summer was how Trump was going to win PA by re-capturing "Reagan Democrats" in Luzerne County :-)

Ohio's demographics appear that they're going the opposite direction of the national trend as the population decreases and people move elsewhere--and Virginia could be one of the states on the receiving end of this given the last few elections.

Assuming a 2-point Republican house effect, this looks reasonable.

Someone needs to enter these and the YouGov polls from NV and UT to the database ...

New Poll: Colorado President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820161016015)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 37%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388)

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161016015)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388)

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920161016015)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388)

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220161016015)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388)

Good numbers, though I guess she’s ahead in PA by a larger number. I just don’t get it why OH remains that close. Hard to imagine that NC will vote to the left of OH.

Jill is hardly far left, voting Green is not a "protest vote", and the deflation from 4%-5% to 1%-3% is due to the fear-induced voter-shaming phenomenon which occurs every four years (since 2000). As for the topic at hand, it's incredible how the "electable candidate" Clinton remains unable to wrap this up, even against a demagogue like Trump.

Indeed, not many far-lefties are shills for dictators like Stein is.

she resembles the fringe european left.

i prefer the american left in general by some light years.

No comment.