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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Interlocutor on October 17, 2016, 03:54:47 pm



Title: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Interlocutor on October 17, 2016, 03:54:47 pm
Quote
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 California adults between Thursday and Saturday. All interviews were conducted after the second 2016 presidential debate on Oct. 9. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the presidential election or certain to do so before polls close on Nov. 8.


October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)

Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)


http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/   (No crosstabs yet)


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: psychprofessor on October 17, 2016, 04:04:45 pm
California will come in right around a 30 point margin for Clinton - netting her about 3.5 million more votes from this one state :-)


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Arch on October 17, 2016, 04:07:17 pm
California will come in right around a 30 point margin for Clinton - netting her about 3.5 million more votes from this one state :-)

So much freedom


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 17, 2016, 04:07:55 pm
Let's hope that Clinton's coattails are enough to send Issa back to the street stealing cars.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Ronnie on October 17, 2016, 04:07:58 pm
It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 17, 2016, 04:09:38 pm
It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.
California's always been more supportive of the death penalty, mainly because of the higher crime rate.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: AndyHogan14 on October 17, 2016, 04:12:03 pm
I absolutely LOVE that Prop 56 looks like it is going to pass especially when you consider the amount of money pouring into the state from Philip Morris and their ilk.

I feel Hillary will be above 60% once we vote, but I would love to get above 65%...we've only hit that mark twice: Harding in 1920 (66.2%) and FDR in 1936 (66.95%).


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: psychprofessor on October 17, 2016, 04:33:02 pm
I absolutely LOVE that Prop 56 looks like it is going to pass especially when you consider the amount of money pouring into the state from Philip Morris and their ilk.

I feel Hillary will be above 60% once we vote, but I would love to get above 65%...we've only hit that mark twice: Harding in 1920 (66.2%) and FDR in 1936 (66.95%).

She would need a surge of Hispanics - which isn't out of the question but would be difficult. I want to see Issa defeated on election night for sure.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 17, 2016, 04:43:42 pm
if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

(
Img
)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: AndyHogan14 on October 17, 2016, 04:45:29 pm
She would need a surge of Hispanics - which isn't out of the question but would be difficult. I want to see Issa defeated on election night for sure.

I live in the 45th district, but I'm less than a mile away from the district line with the 49th and it absolutely kills me that I cannot vote against Issa. I have definitely been urging everyone I know over there to vote for Applegate...I'm hoping for the best in that district, but knowing the area, I am not all too confident.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Interlocutor on October 17, 2016, 04:49:39 pm
if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

(
Img
)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr

The fact that he has yard signs & TV ads is telling in itself. This is just the icing on the cake


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Maxwell on October 17, 2016, 04:52:34 pm
if anyone wonders about california....

look with which kind of flyer darrel issa is campaigning right now:

(
Img
)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr

ahahahahahaha

R.I.P. Darrell Issa, fake Obama republican, HP

he may lose by double digits at this rate


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: WeAreDoomed on October 17, 2016, 04:53:48 pm
Home come Issa's race is so close this year?


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 17, 2016, 04:54:21 pm
Home come Issa's race is so close this year?

to answer that i linked this HP article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/darrell-issa-doug-applegate-trump_us_58038d74e4b06e04759557c5?2kktnayqdrmauzyqfr


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Ebowed on October 17, 2016, 05:01:17 pm
It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.
California's always been more supportive of the death penalty, mainly because of the higher crime rate.

Well, given that places with capital punishment tend to have higher rates of crime since the death penalty has a reverse deterrent effect, that's a bit circular.

Advocates will just have to keep trying until California gets it right.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Interlocutor on October 17, 2016, 05:05:04 pm
Home come Issa's race is so close this year?

Combination of factors:

1. Lots of College-educated voters in this district, one of Trump's worst demographics
2. Issa is one of Trump's biggest supporters in Congress
3. Most of the district is in north San Diego County. Republicans have a registration advantage there, but it isn't as solid as previous elections
4. Related to #3, 'County Club Republicans' are gradually being replaced by a younger & more diverse population
5. Formidable Democratic opponent, an Iraq War vet in a district with a major Marine base
6. DCCC started pouring money earlier this month & running TV ads against Issa


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Maxwell on October 17, 2016, 05:07:33 pm
Plus no republican is running for Senate this year, this dampening turnout among Cali republicans significantly.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 17, 2016, 05:27:12 pm
California is a demographic nightmare for Trump. He's going to get pummeled real good here.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: iBizzBee on October 17, 2016, 05:34:11 pm
Just a reminder. ;)

Quote
Trump in San Jose, California, June 2, 2016: "Iím not even talking about landslides, but I think we can win the state of California and win it pretty substantially. Now, Iíve been told by all these geniuses, all these brilliant guys ó they all say you canít win the state of California. I think we can.Ē


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: voter1993 on October 17, 2016, 05:45:54 pm
This is why national polls don't matter because ny and california will vote big for clinton. I can't wait for the deportations.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 17, 2016, 05:52:21 pm
It's disappointing that Prop 62 won't pass, and it goes to show that California is more socially conservative than people give it credit for.

Oh well.  At least it looks like we're going to get legal pot, which is nice.

Remember that the 2012 abolition initiative came a lot closer than anyone expected it to, and polling for ballot measures might be unreliable in general. I don't think it will pass, but it's far from impossible.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: iBizzBee on October 17, 2016, 05:56:14 pm
This is why national polls don't matter because ny and california will vote big for clinton. I can't wait for the deportations.

Enjoy extinction.


Title: Re: CA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +26 after Second Debate
Post by: Holmes on October 17, 2016, 08:15:32 pm
She'll win by a healthy 30 point margin.


Title: CA: Survey USA: Clinton with Substantial Lead in California
Post by: Dave Leip on October 17, 2016, 09:03:38 pm
New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2016-10-15 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620161015019)

Summary: D: 56%, R: 30%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2fc82f11-ee2e-4d25-b88d-805a1a9a3ae8)