Talk Elections

Here's the link: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-poll-clintons-lead-over-trump-widens-with-three-weeks-to-go/

4-way:

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Head-to-head:

Clinton - 51%
Trump 40%

The hits just keep on coming for Donnie.

Woohoo! I could buy a 9 point lead right now, between this/Monmouth/NBC/Q.

If Hillary has a strong third debate, she's probably in for at least a 2008-style victory.

Monmouth margin doesn't seem crazy anymore.

So is it just me or have the Trumpeteers on this forum gone awfully silent the last few days?

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It's insane that we don't even think that much of a 9 point lead anymore.  We're almost used to double digits at this point!

How many national polls in a row has she been at 47%+ in the four-way? It's starting to look like a landslide folks!

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Time for Donnie Diddler to throw another hissy fit

According to John Dickerson, it's Clinton +9 in the four-way.

Beautiful.. utsukushii.

Here's the link: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-poll-clintons-lead-over-trump-widens-with-three-weeks-to-go/

4-way:

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Head-to-head:

Clinton - 51%
Trump 40%

omg...there is a pattern now...

Ten point drop in white college educated men in most recent CBS poll for Trump. Was 47% 10/4 is now 37 (HRC 42 up from 40)
https://twitter.com/jdickerson/status/788145314515472384

he is losing white men.

Haven't seen many Trump boosters in awhile, but in all honesty and fairness sometimes there is a pattern of excessive celebration from Clinton supporters on this forum.

That being said, as I predicted before, once we started to see the impact of national and statewide polls after the allegations from nine women that there was inappropriate physical contact/harassment and up to and including allegations of sexual battery/assault.

I haven't checked the numbers on this particular poll, but I think the Monmouth poll indicated that 60% of Americans views these allegations as real and legit....

I don't necessarily expect to see a huge Trump collapse in traditional swing states, but when we start moving into parts of the country with extremely large evangelical populations, Senior Citizens (65+), as well as in places with large Catholic Non-Latino populations, this is where we will see the biggest collapse of Trump's numbers.

Not all swing states are created equal, and there are many Americans that already viewed Trump extremely negatively even prior to the sexual assault allegations, but I suspect where we will see the largest drop-off in Republican margins will be in solidly Red (Non-Atlas) states that have higher proportions of seniors and evangelicals, not to mention our Mormon friends, coworkers and neighbors.

Very nice !
Just more bad news for the orange-haired clown to go unhinged in the debate on Wednesday.

if those numbers hold till next week, i guess it is going to be a landslide.

Most important part of this poll: 94% of Trump supporters and 93% of Clinton supporters are locked in. The cake is almost completely baked

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Trump's only up 6 with whites.

BEAUTIFUL!!!

Almost time to put this monster to bed.

Stunning crosstabs. Looks like Democrats are set to win College Educated Whites for the first time ever.

like all number-crunchers are pointing out:

high-quality national and states polls are in synch, crosstabs are even worse.....the "brexit"-argument gets more ridiculous each day.

Stunning poll. Trump is getting schlonged like the whiny little bitch he is.

Probably a bit too Dem-friendly, but still, wow.

https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/788151886755004416

Great poll!

This is 5 points better than the previous CBS poll from 9/28 to 10/2.

To put this into perspective, the same poll was showing Obama + 2 at this point in 2012.

Extending that out, if you average the mid-October polls from ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and Monmouth from 2012 you get Obama +0.6. If you did the same for those polls this time (H2H) you get Clinton +9.0

Well f**k me sideways !
Are you serious ? !

Dem margin in mid-October

Poll   '12   '16
FOX   -1   8
CBS   2   11
NBC   0   10
ABC   3   4
Monmouth   -1   12
FOX   -1   8

ABC/Washington Post is apparently an outlier.

Dear God yes!

Lordy lordy....I felt so confident going into election night '12, too, and yet nothign can shake the small voice this year. I guess it's the stakes.

Remember that it took Sandy to give Obama a boost later in October.

Wow.
Thank you for posting this.
8-)

There were six polling firms that did polls after Sandy that also did polls in mid to late October (before Sandy). The avg before Sandy in those polls was 0.3 and after Sandy was 1.3. So Obama appears to have got a small bump, but some of those polls were also done before and after the 3rd debate (in which Obama was declared the winner in polls).

Basically from the time of the first debate in 2012 the race was pretty close to a tie all the way until election day.

Except for the week of the RNC and a couple of weeks around her Sept. 11 stumble, Clinton's margin over Trump has been greater than Obama's margin over Romney all Summer and into the Fall and that difference is only getting bigger.

Really crazy in retrospect how confident Democrats (myself included) were going into election night 2012.

Well you had solid state polling to back it up.

I am feeling much much better today.  This is more what I expected after news broke of Trump's Taxes, Debates, Miss Universe, Pussygate, and Groping Gate.

Yes and no. This is from 538 on Oct. 31, 2012.

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Most (myself included) assumed Obama's 'firewall' was WI, PA, IA, NV and OH (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oct-31-obamas-electoral-college-firewall-holding-in-polls/).  As it turned out both OH and PA were more R than anyone realized, with OH actually being more R than the national avg so it was not actually in the firewall (you could argue that VA and CO were but they were right on the cusp of the natl avg).  If Romney did actually pull close to a tie he could have won with FL/OH/VA/CO (which was his narrow path strategy in terms of spending).  
 

This is a BLOWOUT folks! Looks like it will be such a ass kicking, that I won't even need have Acorn bus me in to the US and vote 5 times with other illegal Canadian immigrants.

The poll leads were small but consistent.  I remember having to calm my mother down all night because she didn't understand that rural votes report first.  My status that day was the exact map and I was very confident.  If the polls are anywhere close to this on the morning of Nov. 8, the bubbly will be on ice by 5pm.

PA was still more Dem than the nation.  VA was actually the last cog in the firewall as the state that was closest to the national margin.  FL and OH turned out to be some sweet, sweet icing.

ABC has D 33, I 31, R 31 model, which seems to be fairly conservative and is the reason why it has Hillary +4.

In 2012, their D 35, I 32, R 29 model gave them +3 Obama which was very accurate.

I am hoping Democratic enthusiasm proves ABC wrong this year.

If that is their model, and they are engaging in muh unskewin', then they are wrong and learned nothing from 2012 and Rasmussen's/Dick Morris' debacle.  If that's just what their survey showed, then its just an outlier because NOBODY is showing an advantage of only 2 for the Dems. 

Please still do it though, just to be sure.

These great polls for Clinton today may have the effect of encouraging more of her supporters to vote this time, not only for the Presidential race itself, but for her allies running for Congress.

It's always a great feeling to be on the winning side, and even greater when you know that you are going to win...

That's extremely dangerous talk right there.