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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 12:18:22 pm



Title: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 12:18:22 pm
(Image Link)

Two way numbers:

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Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Arch on October 18, 2016, 12:19:11 pm
Is...Texas...really...going...to do it!?


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Lean Branson on October 18, 2016, 12:19:48 pm
LET'S GO TEXAS


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Pandaguineapig on October 18, 2016, 12:21:41 pm
Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 12:27:34 pm
Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada
SurveyMonkey's state polls in the primary were pretty terrible so I expect for these to be as well.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 18, 2016, 12:31:11 pm
If Texas didn't flip in 1996 it's not gonna flip now, we have our own freiwall


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Seriously? on October 18, 2016, 12:31:37 pm
Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 12:33:18 pm
Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)
These were conducted October 8-16.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/

Not defending them, obviously.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Arch on October 18, 2016, 12:34:59 pm
Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada

True. I'm just commenting on Texas being so oddly close to tossup. The whole thing looks like junk though.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: TC 25 on October 18, 2016, 12:40:57 pm
Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on October 18, 2016, 12:41:03 pm
You heard it here first: Nevada to the right of Texas!


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 12:41:54 pm
Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.
That's a pretty charitable interpretation. Let's not cherrypick junk.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 18, 2016, 12:43:12 pm
Nate Silver has this pollster as C- for a reason. It's not that good.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Mallow on October 18, 2016, 12:48:37 pm
To be fair, only TX, GA, and possibly NV look wildly out of line.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 01:08:23 pm
https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster
Mark Blumenthal is on a tweet storm defending the poll. He links to this
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/opinion/campaign-stops/what-are-the-new-battleground-states.html

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 18, 2016, 01:31:17 pm
So, this is what Hillary could look like even if the race shifts back 3 points and this would be like a 3 point race if they have her up 6 right now-

()

And if Hillary is and stays 10 up-

This is apparently Hillary's ceiling-
()



Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Sorenroy on October 18, 2016, 01:33:09 pm
And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Maxwell on October 18, 2016, 01:35:32 pm
this is the first trump up in Florida poll for a while, which strikes me as an outlier.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: President Johnson on October 18, 2016, 01:41:48 pm
Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 01:42:49 pm
And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/
PPP is guilty of this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/04/polls-2014_n_6268604.html
And in 2014, SurveyMonkey did a alot of unreleased polls and later patted themselves on the back.

I give PPP some slack, since they did predict Hillary's Southern Firewall against Bernie well before anyone else. SurveyMonkey has yet to prove themselves.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Maxwell on October 18, 2016, 01:43:57 pm
Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.

Iowa loves a good negging, so I think it could be possible.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on October 18, 2016, 02:48:33 pm
Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

That's beautiful.

Clinton ahead in Georgia and not Florida? It does seem junky.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Kempros on October 18, 2016, 03:13:38 pm
Might change my vote, I very happy to not live in a battleground state. Political ads from anyone are very obnoxious, especially if they constantly air. No thanks.

Texas will be much closer than 2012 for sure though.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Biden If Buttigieg on October 18, 2016, 04:05:17 pm
Why is this garbage entered into the database?


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: Alcon on October 18, 2016, 04:13:24 pm
Why is this garbage entered into the database?

Because it's not an internal or apparently fraudulent, and the idea we should exclude polls because we think their results are dumb, is unsustainable.


Title: Re: WashPo/SurveyMonkey: Odd Swing State Results
Post by: dspNY on October 18, 2016, 05:57:43 pm
Some of these look reasonable but others (OH, NV) look junky