Talk Elections

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Two way numbers:

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Is...Texas...really...going...to do it!?

LET'S GO TEXAS

Love how the folks here are just fine believing a poll that shows Georgia and texas voting to the left of Florida and nevada

SurveyMonkey's state polls in the primary were pretty terrible so I expect for these to be as well.

If Texas didn't flip in 1996 it's not gonna flip now, we have our own freiwall

Someone must have gone the full Harambe and murdered that Survey Monkey. These numbers are terribly terrible.

IIRC this is a poll that records responses over a month span as well. (Haven't looked at this release.)

These were conducted October 8-16.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/

Not defending them, obviously.

True. I'm just commenting on Texas being so oddly close to tossup. The whole thing looks like junk though.

Looks like junk to me.

If the numbers hold, and Trump were to hold Georgia and pick off one more Clinton state he would win in this model.

You heard it here first: Nevada to the right of Texas!

That's a pretty charitable interpretation. Let's not cherrypick junk.

Nate Silver has this pollster as C- for a reason. It's not that good.

To be fair, only TX, GA, and possibly NV look wildly out of line.

https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster
Mark Blumenthal is on a tweet storm defending the poll. He links to this
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/opinion/campaign-stops/what-are-the-new-battleground-states.html

And points out, not all polls are going to show the same thing. Maybe Surveymonkey is reaching college educated whites that are more open minded to Dems than phone pollsters. And I think it's good they're sticking their neck out with these results.

So, this is what Hillary could look like even if the race shifts back 3 points and this would be like a 3 point race if they have her up 6 right now-

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And if Hillary is and stays 10 up-

This is apparently Hillary's ceiling-
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I think that Surveymonkey is trash, but it would be a sign of an incredibly poor pollster if they withheld their results because they were outliers.

this is the first trump up in Florida poll for a while, which strikes me as an outlier.

Junk, Texas is not more Democratic than Iowa and Ohio. And The Donald is certainly not ahead in Florida right now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/
PPP is guilty of this.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/04/polls-2014_n_6268604.html
And in 2014, SurveyMonkey did a alot of unreleased polls and later patted themselves on the back.

I give PPP some slack, since they did predict Hillary's Southern Firewall against Bernie well before anyone else. SurveyMonkey has yet to prove themselves.

Iowa loves a good negging, so I think it could be possible.

That's beautiful.

Clinton ahead in Georgia and not Florida? It does seem junky.

Might change my vote, I very happy to not live in a battleground state. Political ads from anyone are very obnoxious, especially if they constantly air. No thanks.

Texas will be much closer than 2012 for sure though.

Why is this garbage entered into the database?

Because it's not an internal or apparently fraudulent, and the idea we should exclude polls because we think their results are dumb, is unsustainable.

Some of these look reasonable but others (OH, NV) look junky