Talk Elections

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/New-poll-shows-Trump-beating-Clinton-by-3-percent-9980688.php

Trump - 41%
Clinton - 38%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1%

lol, like I said @ Surveymonkey, TX didn't flip in 1996, it won't flip now. #RedFreiwall!

Trump 41%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

https://ssl.uh.edu/class/hobby/texas2016/

Even if it doesn't flip. It's astounding that Trump is barely scraping by in such a deep red state which Romney won by 16 points

At this same point in time in 2012, Romney was up 17 points here. Just let that sink in.

I also think they are somewhat underestimating Johnson support here FWIW

It'll take unheard of Latino and white college turnout to even have a shot at this.

That said, Travis County broke 90% voter registration this year...

This should not flip or come close but surprising how close it is. Bad omen for states like GA and maybe SC for Trump.

I highly doubt Texas will flip, but as I've said, if it does end up this close, Arizona probably does flip.

Yep, more than Texas, this indicates that GA and AZ are heading to HRC this year.

These polls are going to drag Texas into Lean R/Toss up territory.

Never thought I'd see Ohio vote to the right of Texas.

I don't think you are going to.

TX always had potential to be within +5. They have many Hispanics registered as Democrats but don't vote. What this tells me is that Hispanics in TX are more motivated to vote this year.

That's a lot of undecideds for mid-October.

Lmao, Texas is really going to be in single digits this year.

Too many undecideds for this late and I think everybody knows how they will break.

TWSS?

just dropping this here...from known kitten-strangler, fraud and JFK-killing-conspirator Nate Silver:

Clinton chances in Texas: 17%
Trump chances in Pennsylvania: 10%
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/788438311908016129

Yeah, I was just noticing that. She seems far more likely at this point than in early August to carry Texas. Why are her odds worse? Lack of time left in the model?

Hillary won't crack 45%. Fools gold.

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the state of the trump campaign

Did you miss 20 years of immigration and demographic change?

I think that it has the potential of being more than just close-ish for Clinton.

It really does.  This should be fascinating on election night if this holds up

Yeah probably not. but it would be shocking to see Texas decided by 2 percentage points and Ohio going to Trump by three.

I wish I could go back a year on this board and make a claim that three weeks before the elections we were getting numbers that Ohio could vote even or the right of Texas.. I would of been burned by the stake.

Not that I think this will be remotely close to what happens, but..

3 polls in the last week showing Texas as a single digit race. This is real life, lol. Until there's polls showing Clinton ahead, it's not a swinger, but wow.

What's interesting is that this isn't really reflective of the national race. Texas was, what, R+20 last time? Hillary is up, but she isn't up that much. Something else is going on here.

Texas Latino Republican voters are abandoning the top of the ticket in droves this year, educated professionals in the cities and suburbs of DFW, Houston, SA, and Austin are swinging hard towards Clinton, and evangelical types have little stomach or enthusiasm for Trump and aren't crazy about voting in November. :)

Yep, that sounds like the recipe, lol. 538 just put an article up discussing Texas. Basically, they were saying what is happening in Texas is actually a regional phenomenon - Trump is doing about 10 points worse in the whole south compared to Romney, plus a larger Clinton lead than Obama had. Trump has traded this for some gains in the Northeast and Midwest though. Might not pay off electorally, but it is interesting.

I'm actually starting to think that Denton County is going to look more like Tarrant County does now (55-45 Republican) with Collins County not far behind.

We could actually see some extremely weird results from Montgomery County outside of Houston that went 80% Republican in '08 and '12 looking more like a 58-62% Republican County.

There are actually more undecided Dems and indies (11% and 29% respectively) than Republicans (8%) in this poll

Latino Millennials as I have posted elsewhere are the biggest Bernie supporters still holding out.

Regardless of how much many of them hate and despise Trump, Obama still has a rep as the "deporter in Chief" and Clinton is now running for the 3rd term of Obama.... right or wrong it is a fact.

I'll probably get placed on ignore from many people on the forum, but I have been saying this consistently since the Democratic Primaries.

And ironically Clinton is their best hope of getting favorable immigration reform, which would significantly help the deportation issue.

Seriously, people need to grow up and think about things a little more pragmatically instead of constantly pouting. Part of me wishes I could go back to 2015 and just decide to ignore this election, because seeing the justifications people come up with for why it's a better idea to not vote or cast a protest vote is really unbelievable. At least before this election I had a sort of naive faith in young people. Now all I see is whining.

(ok sorry I'm done lol)

I agree. I'm tired of this election not only because of Donald Trump and his corrupt party, but all of the whiners who don't see what's in front of them (holdouts). Not just Latino Millennials, but those of other races just don't like Hillary for whatever reason among the age group.

It makes me frustrated already that I can't vote (15) and see all these other people who can complain about their choices. Trump is a demagogue, Johnson doesn't know what Aleppo is and is not in favor of the minimum wage, and Stein is an attention seeker looking to be relevant and is just the white female version of Ben Carson.

Hillary, however, fought for children's rights, pushed for every school to have special education, and is a strong advocate of health care. She's the only choice and it's just that simple. But it doesn't matter if they are enthusiastic about Hillary. What does matter is that they turn out to vote in record numbers and vote for no one, but Hillary (under the presidential section of course). They'll like Hillary way more when she takes office anyway and I'm very sure of that.

Every millennial who isn't a racist shut-in needs to have Ralph Nader wheeled out of his nursing home so he can drool all over them. Only way they'll get what happens when they put idealist BS over working people.

It's really, really easy not to elect a regressive piece of dog crap if they do their damn job and vote for her. Everyone is losing their patience with these kids. Bernie should be hung out to dry after this election for leading them on. No, I don't care that he's done half a dozen rallies for her. He did a lot of damage and may well have prevented a 400+ electoral vote blowout, plus a Dem House. Pathetic.

Texan hispanics are more moderate than hispanics in other states. Hispanic Men voted for Abbott over Davis according to CNN 2014 exit polls. That being said, Abbott hasn't ever accused them of being rapists so....

For someone not from Texas, Bob Dole was a good cultural match for Texas. Bill Clinton  was as good as any Democrat since Carter for Texas and still did not win.

Donald Trump is simply an execrable candidate for President. Trump wil win states largely because the states are firmly Republican. That is not enough. 

I agree which is why I made the Red Friewall comment ;) As per me I've kind of stopped caring about the Presidential race, peeking at Congress to see how things go there...

He also has an Hispanic wife and speaks Spanish fluently.