Talk Elections

Hillary: 39%.      (I rounded the values with decimals)
Trump: 34%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: <1%

Article Link: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/92339110/

Hispanics voting against Trump may very well give Arizona to Hillary....

Brilliant poll!
Trump's Drumpf's retreat is in full swing

Seems like another junky poll, but when all junky polls show the same result...

Can we get a decent poll here?

1. Hispanic hostility to Donald Trump
2. Mormons rejecting the personal behavior and sleazy business activities of Trump
3. Well-educated people who bucked the D trend nationwide from R to D (see also Georgia and Texas)
4. People moving in from California and bringing their political values with them

Of course there is overlap.

Yeah, agreed.

Then again, the national polls all show a big Clinton lead which so far doesn't seem to have materialized in a huge shift in the swing states. There must be a biggish swing happening somewhere.

Like, what are the Trump +8-10 states in this election? Arizona I guess is one of them?

Texas.

When leaners are included, Clinton takes a 43-38 lead (43.3% to 37.8%)

Great poll!

Nice to see, but WAY WAY too many undecideds.

New Poll: Arizona President by Arizona Republic on 2016-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420161015071)

Summary: D: 39%, R: 34%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/)

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2016/10/19/october-2016-poll-data/

Am I reading this right?

White
Clinton 42
Trump 42

Maricopa
Clinton 46
Trump 38

Pima
Clinton 57
Trump 26

Rest of Arizona
Clinton 29
Trump 44

GOP
Clinton 15
Trump 60

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/
Not sure, but it seems like they offer the "undecided" option, while most phone polls only offer the ballot candidates, and only record "undecided" if volunteered from the respondent. A huge chunk of GOP is undecided and they'll probably fall in line for Trump.

:)

Well, Hillary leading by a fair margin is good, but I guess the high undecided number makes the poll at least questionable, if not useless. Polls with both candidates under 40% at this late stage of the campaign are difficult to assess.

Well I'll tell you, I've met several Clinton/McCain voters, one of which who called Trump an asshole and cited Trump's support for trickle down economics as a reason for not supporting him.

I guess 'Trumped up Trickle Down Economics' has had an effect.

I do want a more reliable pollster to poll AZ, but it's looking very winnable for Hillary.

Calling it now, the undecideds will break enough for Trump for him to carry this. If both candidates were up in the mid 40's then this would be something Clinton could actually win.

Highly unlikely. I think Clinton's going to carry AZ by 2 or so points.

There is either a huge typo with this poll or it's complete garbage. There's no way from party reg in Arizona that you could end up with a sample that has 168 Republicans 413 Democrats and 132 Independents. That in no way, shape or form represents the Arizona electorate.

You're also not going to get a self-identified in AZ that is going to be 174 R, 316 D and 218 I. The math just doesn't add up here where it would ever be 2-to-1. I think most of the polls that I have seen are R+, not D+ in the state.

I am not sure what they did on a reweigh (it's not disclosed as far as I can see), but I don't know how you conduct a poll and statistically get numbers which are that far off unless you happen to be oversampling Ds to get to a statistically significant number for some other research reason. They didn't disclose an intentional oversample as far as I can tell.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/

Likely a typo.

Party I.D does not equal how someone will vote, and I bet you some people (probably not many but there are gonna be some) register because of the down ballot, and could skip the presidential, while voting in the down ballot

That's what happens when you repeatedly insult both of their Republican senators and one of those, Jeff Flank is amongst the three Republican senators from any state being the most critical of Trump, alongside Lindsey Graham and Ben Sasse.

Not sure about that.  Their Maricopa County subsample was also super Democratic.  It's completely weird that this poll and the Highground poll are almost in agreement over topline, but the Highground poll had a 42-35 GOP sample.