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Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Dave Leip on October 19, 2016, 06:58:06 am



Title: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dave Leip on October 19, 2016, 06:58:06 am
New Poll: Arizona Senator by Arizona Republic on 2016-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4320161015071)

Summary: D: 40%, R: 52%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/19/arizona-republic-morrison-cronkite-news-poll/92390100/)


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: DavidB. on October 19, 2016, 08:45:18 am
This seat is fool's gold for the Dems. Seems like McCain got away with his unendorsement. Likely R.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: King Francis I on October 19, 2016, 08:56:59 am
There is an another poll that shows Mccain +3 only though


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Figueira on October 19, 2016, 09:04:10 am
We could see a Mark Warner situation here, but I won't hold my breath.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 19, 2016, 10:35:55 am
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 19, 2016, 11:25:02 am
Yeah, nothing to see here, even though McCain objectively deserves to lose.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: publicunofficial on October 19, 2016, 12:24:14 pm
Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2016, 01:03:57 pm
Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.

Sinema? Giffords? Carmona?


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on October 19, 2016, 01:08:03 pm
I guess McCain is just too entrenched. Democrats were right to put forth a decent candidate, since there was a chance that Ward could have beaten McCain in the primary.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: publicunofficial on October 19, 2016, 02:15:14 pm
Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.

Sinema? Giffords? Carmona?

Giffords is in no shape to campaign. Sinema and Carmona would probably run equal or worse than Kirkpatrick IMO.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: gf20202 on October 19, 2016, 04:25:49 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2016, 04:31:56 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Heisenberg on October 19, 2016, 04:34:25 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.
CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2016, 04:36:58 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.
CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).

Yeah, but to pretend that Murphy could literally refrain from campaigning and still win (Which is what Safe D is supposed to mean) is just stupid.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: FM Scott🦋 on October 19, 2016, 11:05:31 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.
CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).

Yeah, but to pretend that Murphy could literally refrain from campaigning and still win (Which is what Safe D is supposed to mean) is just stupid.

So if Rob Portman stops campaigning, he'll lose?

I don't think there are any Congress members who simply 'not campaign' because they have a safe seat.  And frankly if you're someone who doesn't, you're probably a shtty representative for your constituents in general.

Mark Warner and Bob Casey were supposed to be the safest incumbents in their last elections.  Lee Terry was supposed to be safe in his district.  When they took that attitude, they either lost or came reasonably close to losing.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Fitzgerald on October 19, 2016, 11:10:48 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.
CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).

Yeah, but to pretend that Murphy could literally refrain from campaigning and still win (Which is what Safe D is supposed to mean) is just stupid.

I take it back, Wulfric. You do know more about politics than TNvol! ;)


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 19, 2016, 11:49:23 pm
Kirkpatrick was never going to beat McCain. She's about as overrated as Murphy and Strickland.
Who ever rated Murphy high enough to be considered overrated?
Ironically, TNVol, who repeatedly rated Murphy vs. CLC, Murphy vs. DeSantis, and Murphy vs. Jolly Safe D.
CLC, DeSantis, and Jolly would have been fighting a bitter three-way primary, and the winner would come out damaged and short on cash, giving Murphy the advantage (by mid-June, it became clear Murphy would win his primary).

Yeah, but to pretend that Murphy could literally refrain from campaigning and still win (Which is what Safe D is supposed to mean) is just stupid.

So if Rob Portman stops campaigning, he'll lose?

No, he'll win. I have that at Safe R now.

And on representatives who don't campaign, let me know when all of those super safe democrats in NYC, or all of those super safe republicans in much of Texas, ever get around to campaigning in the general election. Yeah, they'll do something in the primary if someone runs against them. But in the general, maybe a town hall or two in the August Recess because "everyone does it", but beyond that they probably just sit back in one of their residences and relax while whatever donations they get collect dust in some bank account or random desk drawer, never to be spent until their next primary.


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: ❤️❤️❤️ on October 20, 2016, 09:43:29 pm
Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.

Sinema? Giffords? Carmona?

Sinema is an openly bisexual atheist. I'm not sure Arizona would like her(Though she would still probably be a good recruit). Giffords has recovered from the shooting in 2011, but she still has a strongly inhibited ability to speak(i.e. she can think fine, but has serious trouble communicating those thoughts), which would make voters unfairly question her mental ability. Carmona doesn't want to run anymore, so...


Title: Re: AZ: Arizona Republic: McCain with Large Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 21, 2016, 07:47:06 pm
Respect to Ann Kirkpatrick for trying. Dems couldn't have found a better candidate. Certainly deserves more credit than Strickland or Murphy.

Sinema? Giffords? Carmona?

Sinema is an openly bisexual atheist. I'm not sure Arizona would like her(Though she would still probably be a good recruit). Giffords has recovered from the shooting in 2011, but she still has a strongly inhibited ability to speak(i.e. she can think fine, but has serious trouble communicating those thoughts), which would make voters unfairly question her mental ability. Carmona doesn't want to run anymore, so...

Did Sinema ever actually classify herself as athiest? I know she dodged the question at least once in 2012.