Talk Elections

Trump 41%
Clinton 40%
Johnson 8%
Stein 6%

Two Way
Clinton 44%
Trump 41%

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-leads-clinton-by-one-point-going-into-debate-in-ibdtipp-tracking-poll/

The partisan hacks at RCP have decided to include this but not the PRRI/The Atlantic poll.

LOL no. This is an outlier like that Clinton +15 was

Is this a joke?

and she is still +6.2 lol

Good numbers.  

Given the margins HRC will rack up in California, New York and Illinois, Trump can win the election even if he loses popular vote by 3, even 4 points.

Yeah, I cant wait for these guys and Rasmussen to fall flat on their butts. IBD does shock polls.

Jfern's favorite pollster strikes again.

Lol pls

lmao

Clinton is not asking the First Lady to go to Arizona if the election is tied

Suddenly some voters prefer Trump in a 4 way, but prefer Clinton in a 2 way? also lol Stein at 6%

4-way
Trump 41.3%
Clinton 40%

2-way
Clinton 43.6%
Trump 40.6%

I think this tells you everything you need to know about this poll.

this is a much larger outlier than the Clinton +15 was - the Maxwell average is Clinton +9

IBD is garbage.

Decimals are crap

So Trump gets more votes in 4-way than 2-way?
Whatever...

Oh wow. Yeah, that's certifiably garbage.

TC 25, Voter1993, StatesPoll, and Tender have been stinking up the place with their dog sweat.  I'm grateful IBDD is putting together crap polls like this so we can clear the air for a few minutes.  We need to BREATHE, people.

A minus at 538.

Love those red avatars shouting 'JUNK' whenever a poll result doesn't fit their narrative.

Still, Clinton had some great polls today to counterbalance this one.

The numbers themselves make no sense though. Trump up in a 4 way but down in a 2 way with LESS people voting for him. That's why it's clearly junk.

One thing is for sure.

Some polls will get humiliated on Election night.

IBD does this crap every election. A month or so before the election they release a poll that's a wild outlier to get attention (OBAMA AND MCCAIN TIED!!!) and then a few days before they release a second one that's in line with what all the other pollsters show.
Hence their high rating.

LOL. Clinton wins AAs 69-15 and Hispanics 49-18. Seems accurate!

Dems
Clinton 78%
Johnson 7%
Trump 6%
Stein 4%

GOP
Trump 82%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%

Indies
Trump 44%
Clinton 29%
Johnson 10%
Stein 8%

Midwest: Trump +2
Northeast: Clinton +8
South: Trump +11
West: Clinton +9

If an A- pollster is garbage can I start saying that Monmouth and Marist and anything associated with NBC is garbage? Pretty please?

()

Apply liberally

This is clearly an outlier, like it or not.

As has been said they do this every cycle. Release a crap poll to pretend there's a horse race and then put one out closer to the election that's in line with everything else.

Now why would they do that? And you are cherrypicking data. In 2008:

11/1 - 11/3     Obama +8
10/22 - 10/26 Obama +3
10/18 - 10/22 Obama +1
10/14 - 10/18 Obama +5
10/7 - 10/13   Obama +3
9/2 - 9/7         Obama +5
8/4 - 8/9         Obama +5
7/7 - 7/11       Obama +3
6/2 - 6/8         Obama +3
5/12 - 5/18     Obama +11
1/2 - 1/4         McCain +12

So, since the start of the actual campaign they had Obama in the lead all the time, only the margin varied. They never had a tie.

Thats not to say they couldnt be wrong now, but they do have a pretty good record.

I almost enjoy seeing polls like this because they don't allow complacency to set in. Everyone knows Clinton is way ahead but that 10% of doubt keeps us working hard

I may have gone overboard calling it garbage, but this is the biggest outlier ever.

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/02/ibdtipp-obama-2-under-50/ (http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/02/ibdtipp-obama-2-under-50/)

They also had a mid-October poll where they showed Obama just 1 point ahead of McCain.

Its garbage, IBT is garbage. They don't deserve the A- 538 gives them.

Same here, we'll see what happens. We should not dismiss polls that we disagree with.

I pay no attention to 538 ratings. They give Survey USA an A.

True, modified it. So maybe this one is an outlier to, but I refuse to accept they are doing this on purpose.

Silver says they've been accurate for such a long time that it maintains its spot.

But since 2014, they've done pretty poorly.

Love the reek of dog sweat from the deplorable posters. Beautiful.

Some pollsters completely fabricate their data and results. It's been documented by Silver but we should give IBD the benefit of the doubt. They have a slight Republican leaning bias so it's probably safe to say the race is anywhere from tied to +8 in favor of Hillary.

We can never be too cautious of pollsters accuracy because they tend to herd and throw out results that are too deviated from the average. I applaud IBD for being brave enough to give us the result. Perhaps it could be a warning for all Democrats.

Haha, Yep, 500 polls they have been absent for and then this crap comes out and they are all over it like flies

Das ist ein Tracker. Scheiße!

hmm, ok... Trump is ahead nationally, but Republicans are so panicky that they are spending money in R-leaning house districts to avoid a collapse...Clinton and surrogates are heading into Arizona and pouring Super Pac money into Georgia but Trump is ahead nationally...

You can say whatever you want.  Just stick by your words come Nov. 9.

The fly goes missing for some time.
But then all of a sudden, there is a new hot pile of s**t, and suddenly the fly appears on jumps on the manure faster than you can say "This poll is a massive outlier."

Given that Obama was 1 point ahead at a similar time in 2008, I'm guessing that their secret sauce for weighing survey results changes over time and that the weighing mechanism used at this timeframe yields this same type of result.

Ok,assume this is not a huge outlier.
How the hell does it fit with all the state polls from the last 2 weeks?

it doesn't

It doesn't, so unless there's something wrong with their methodology (and from their track record, there probably isn't) then this one is likely an outlier.  Even well-designed polls are going to be outside the MoE 5% of the time, by definition.  That's 1 outlier out of every 20 polls.  How many polls have we had in the past few days?

The C+15 poll is likely a similar outlier, but on the other end of the range.

I am scratching my head more at the fact that their trend is counter-intuitive.

He has actually taken the lead since September which seems to suggest that the sexual misconducts have not hurt him at all.

()

Throw IMDB in the trash.

I think this is going to be a daily tracking poll starting today, for the record....

Oh Christ, no.

What's wrong with that? :)

Oh, you're back...

10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern

A lot of Australians over here!

BTW, swedish Trumpish' party SD loves Australian immigration politics and wants that EU to implement it :)
I love it as well. You just don't give a f**k about Arabs/muslims/Africans/other poor people, while we took 170k asylum seekers last year :(

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